Doug Burrell laid out a laundry list of reasons to lay the 6.5 points with Indianapolis in London. The Colts are 7-2 straight up, 6-3 against the number, and now plug newly-acquired All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner into a secondary that already owns the league’s 10th-best EPA per drop-back. Burrell noted Atlanta’s drive success rate sits bottom-eight and expects Gardner’s man-coverage skills to shorten those few Falcons possessions that do cross midfield. Offensively, Indy is cranking out 385 yards a game and ranks top-five in rush EPA; Burrell believes that ground game lets them “control tempo once they get a lead.” Historical data backs him up: the Colts have covered 16 of the last 19 meetings with Atlanta and have rattled off five straight wins following a loss. With favorites covering 55.6 % this season—the same side that’s burning his model elsewhere—Burrell is riding the broader league trend here.

Doug Burrell laid out a laundry list of reasons to lay the 6.5 points with Indianapolis in London. The Colts are 7-2 straight up, 6-3 against the number, and now plug newly-acquired All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner into a secondary that already owns the league’s 10th-best EPA per drop-back. Burrell noted Atlanta’s drive success rate sits bottom-eight and expects Gardner’s man-coverage skills to shorten those few Falcons possessions that do cross midfield. Offensively, Indy is cranking out 385 yards a game and ranks top-five in rush EPA; Burrell believes that ground game lets them “control tempo once they get a lead.” Historical data backs him up: the Colts have covered 16 of the last 19 meetings with Atlanta and have rattled off five straight wins following a loss. With favorites covering 55.6 % this season—the same side that’s burning his model elsewhere—Burrell is riding the broader league trend here.

Tafur laid the 6.5 with Indianapolis in Berlin, expecting a Jonathan Taylor rebound against a Falcons front that ranks 30th in rush-defense success rate (51%) since Week 4. He added that Daniel Jones’ six interceptions have all come versus heavy coverage shells, while Atlanta uses six-plus defenders in coverage at the NFL’s fourth-lowest rate—an alignment unlikely to exploit Jones’ weakness. With Taylor’s matchup and Jones’ cleaner throwing windows, Tafur sees Indy covering comfortably.

Tafur laid the 6.5 with Indianapolis in Berlin, expecting a Jonathan Taylor rebound against a Falcons front that ranks 30th in rush-defense success rate (51%) since Week 4. He added that Daniel Jones’ six interceptions have all come versus heavy coverage shells, while Atlanta uses six-plus defenders in coverage at the NFL’s fourth-lowest rate—an alignment unlikely to exploit Jones’ weakness. With Taylor’s matchup and Jones’ cleaner throwing windows, Tafur sees Indy covering comfortably.

Dan Parr said Indianapolis will "put things back together" in Berlin by pounding Atlanta’s vulnerable front with Jonathan Taylor. The Colts bring the league’s No. 1 scoring offense into a matchup that pits strength on strength through the air but exposes the Falcons’ run defense. Parr referenced NFL Research showing the top scoring offense has beaten the top pass defense in 10 of the last 11 meetings since 2007. With Atlanta 1-3 in the second leg of back-to-back road trips under Raheem Morris (-73 point differential), Parr expects Shane Steichen to lean on Taylor’s volume, making the back a premium DFS play and reinforcing confidence in Colts ‑6.5 tickets.

Tafur forecasted a Jonathan Taylor eruption overseas, pointing out that Atlanta ranks 30th in rush-defense success rate (51%) since Week 4. He argued the Colts can lean on Taylor even if Daniel Jones wobbles, making the –6.5 spread attractive. Given the matchup and Taylor’s secure workload, Tafur framed the back as a centerpiece for anyone betting Indy or building DFS lineups in the standalone London slate.

Vic Tafur said Daniel Jones is an immediate bounce-back candidate despite last week’s five-turnover nightmare. Jones still owns a 70% completion rate, 2,404 passing yards and 14 TDs on the season and had posted 0.31 EPA per dropback before the Pittsburgh dud. Tafur noted that every one of Jones’ six interceptions has come when defenses drop six-plus men, while this week’s opponent, Atlanta, deploys those heavy coverage looks at the league’s fourth-lowest rate. In Berlin, he expects cleaner windows, a return toward Jones’ early-season efficiency and, by extension, a comfortable Colts cover at –6.5.

Eric Moody said Jonathan Taylor is teed up for a monster workload against Atlanta’s soft underbelly. Indianapolis’ offensive line ranks third in run-block win rate (74.3%), while the Falcons sit 26th in EPA allowed per designed rush and give up 124.4 rushing yards per game. With the Colts laying 6.5 points on neutral soil and Raheem Morris’ defense allowing broken tackles in bunches, Moody expects 20+ touches and goal-line dominance from Taylor, labeling him a priority DFS spend and a locked-in RB1 for season-long leagues.

Summarizing CBS Sports’ breakdown, Giannotto noted this neutral-site game sets up perfectly for Taylor. Atlanta has coughed up 100+ rushing yards in seven of eight contests and ranks 29th in EPA allowed per carry. The Colts want to hide Daniel Jones after back-to-back multi-turnover outings, so expect a run-heavy plan similar to Taylor’s 24-carry, 148-yard explosion in Week 7. With the public all over Indianapolis, the spread (-5.5) is creeping up, but Giannotto still views Taylor as the path of least resistance and a core DFS play.

Sascha Paruk highlighted the A.I. laying 5.5 with Indianapolis on the neutral field in Berlin, noting a perfect storm of historical edges: the tool is 7-2 when picking Colts spreads and a disastrous 0-8 when trying to time Falcons sides. Rather than fight the trend, Paruk advised riding with the computer’s strongest ATS performer (Indy) against the team it has whiffed on every single week (Atlanta).

MacMillan bought low on Indianapolis after a six-turnover loss to Pittsburgh, pointing out that the Colts remain 3rd in Net Yards per Play (+1.2), 3rd in overall DVOA, 1st in EPA per play and 2nd in success rate. He expects Atlanta’s locker-room unrest and dubious play-calling to snowball, and highlighted the Falcons’ 29th-ranked opponent rush success rate as a green light for Jonathan Taylor. He grabbed Colts ‑5.5 at +100.

Chirimbes predicted a 37-16 rout, arguing Indianapolis can run away with the AFC South. Rookie QB Cam Ward looks overwhelmed behind Tennessee’s porous line, while Daniel Jones—Chirimbes’ Comeback Player of the Year candidate—has stabilized a Colts offense that already averages 27.2 PPG. With Indy 4-0 ATS in its last four and Tennessee’s pass protection allowing the third-highest sack rate, Chirimbes is comfortable eating the big number.

Indianapolis has won five straight over Tennessee, including a 41-20 road drubbing in Week 3. Joyner trusts Shane Steichen’s ultra-aggressive approach—Indy has shown no interest in coasting regardless of opponent. With the Titans still reeling and Colts immune to AFC South jitters outside Jacksonville and Houston, he stamped a confidence-level-7 on the Colts –14.

Hill bet Colts Team Total Over 30.5. Indy hung 41 on Tennessee back in Week 3 and has posted 38, 31 and 40 points the last three weeks. With the Titans’ defense now further depleted, Hill expects Shane Steichen’s unit to eclipse 30 yet again.

Dabbundo highlighted that Indianapolis vaulted from eighth to fifth in market power ratings after obliterating the Chargers. The Colts rank on pace to be one of the top offenses of the past 25 years and are doubling the league’s No. 2 rushing EPA (0.16 vs 0.07). Jonathan Taylor is running away with OPOY, and he now faces a Titans defense missing two blue-chip starters in L’Jarius Sneed and Jeffrey Simmons. Tennessee’s brief post-coach-fire bump lasted one quarter, and QB Cam Ward is posting worse numbers than his predecessor, taking sacks and giving the ball away. Dabbundo sees no path for Tennessee to keep the Colts under 31. Verdict: Bet Colts team total over 30.5 (–110).

Everett took Colts +3.5 despite the perfect 3-0 record receiving ‘little respect.’ Indy’s +47 point differential leads the league, and Shane Steichen’s offense ranks top-three in early-down success rate. While the Rams should be 3-0 minus a blown lead to Philly, their secondary just ceded 335 passing yards. Everett sees at worst a field-goal game between two underrated teams and likes the hook.

Vic Tafur backed Indianapolis +3.5, calling Jonathan Taylor a ‘fantasy league-winner’ and emphasizing a banged-up Rams offensive line that could struggle to protect Matthew Stafford. He expects the unbeaten underdogs to ride Taylor’s explosiveness, keep the pace slow and at minimum stay within a field goal.

Everett laid 3.5 with Indianapolis after the Colts shredded Denver for 316 passing yards and 167 rushing. He now takes Shane Steichen’s offense seriously and doubts Tennessee—quarterbacked by the inconsistent Cam Ward—can keep pace. Everett envisions Indy jumping ahead early, forcing the Titans to abandon their ground game and play into Gus Bradley’s soft zone, setting up a comfortable Colts cover.

Leaver’s 10,000-run simulation makes the Colts a 63% straight-up favorite in Nashville. He framed Tennessee’s 37% upset chance as too thin to chase plus money and recommended leaning on Indy in survivor pools.

Bender recommended Indianapolis –3 on the road, noting three early-season pillars: Jonathan Taylor’s league-best 236 rushing yards, Daniel Jones’ 71.4% completion rate, and a +4 turnover margin. On the other sideline rookie Cam Ward has already been sacked 11 times, a bad recipe against a Colts front that has won seven of its last eight trips to Tennessee. Bender’s final score call of 21-16 gives Indy a full TD of cushion on the spread.

Sobleski laid the field goal with Indianapolis, arguing Lou Anarumo’s scheme will have Tennessee rookie Cam Ward ‘spinning.’ He expects Indy to flood the quarterback’s sight-lines with disguised coverage, forcing mistakes much the way Anarumo has rattled young passers in Cincinnati and now Indy. On the other side, Daniel Jones leads an offense that’s already produced back-to-back wins and has ‘more than enough firepower’ to cash in Ward’s turnovers. Sobleski views this as a terrible matchup for an already 0-2 Titans club, projecting a comfortable Colts cover and 3-0 start.

Referencing ESPN’s betting preview, Giannotto pointed out that Daniel Jones owns the NFL’s sixth-best QBR (80.9) while completing 71.4% of his passes through two weeks. Pair that efficiency with Jonathan Taylor’s 5.6 yards per rush and a Colts offense ranking third in early-down success rate, and he is comfortable laying -3.5 against a Titans team whose pass rush has generated pressure on just 22% of dropbacks. Giannotto predicts Indianapolis reaches 3-0 and keeps Jones firmly in play for over 1.5 passing TD props.

Michael Fiddle argued that Shane Steichen "should be atop the board for Coach of the Year" now that Indianapolis is averaging 31 points per game and leading the league in expected points added per play. He called the Colts "the real deal" after their fast offensive start and suggested bettors consider Steichen’s award odds before sportsbooks fully adjust to Indianapolis’ efficiency spike.

Ross Kelly relayed that the SportsLine model is bullish on Indianapolis -3.5 and the Over 43.5 in Nashville, with the Colts covering well over 50% of simulations and the total clearing nearly 70% of the time. Daniel Jones has sparked a historic start for Indy: no punts through two games and top-four ranks in points, yards, rushing and passing offense. Tennessee, meanwhile, has looked like a bottom-tier team. Top pick Cam Ward has already been sacked a league-high 11 times, the Titans have scored just one touchdown, and they sit 31st in points per game. The model projects at least three more sacks and a turnover from Ward, paving the way for an Indy cover and a high-scoring script.

Mason Cameron recommended grabbing Indianapolis -3 before the number climbs, pointing to a bundle of data that screams early-season outlier. The Colts are the first team in league history to score on each of their first 10 drives and have yet to punt through two weeks under Shane Steichen’s turbo-charged, fourth-down-friendly script. Quarterback Daniel Jones is playing point guard to perfection, ranking 19th in average depth of target (8.5 yards) while keeping 53% of his throws short of the sticks, a ball-control profile that has produced points without turnovers. Tennessee’s defense looks like the perfect foil: bottom-10 in the share of snaps allowing positive EPA and fresh off a Week 2 performance that ranked 25th in EPA per play allowed to the Rams. With the Titans showing no pass-rush pulse and Indianapolis converting drives at a historic clip, Cameron believes the market will push this to at least -4 by kickoff and wants bettors in early at the key -3.

Dabbundo pounced on Colts +2.5, arguing the market still inflates a sloppy Broncos team. He recalled last December’s meeting in Denver where Indy led 20-7 and had Bo Nix in a blender until a series of self-inflicted turnovers swung the game. Nix finished with three interceptions that day and now faces a Colts defense that looked much more flexible under new coordinator Lou Anarumo, holding Miami’s elite weapons largely in check during Week 1. Offensively, Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson shredded a leaky Dolphins unit and should find similar success against a Denver defense that just let Tennessee convert only 35 percent of their early-down passes. The look-ahead line was Broncos -3.5; with that edge erased, Dabbundo sees outright upset value at +2.5.

DFS Army said to hammer Alec Pierce over 21.5 receiving yards on PrizePicks. Their Top Props tool assigns a 60.6 % hit probability and every major sportsbook is hanging 23.5–24.5, so we are getting a two- to three-yard discount. The tout added that the Colts are starting Daniel Jones instead of the less accurate Anthony Richardson, which should lead to more catchable down-field looks. Pierce averaged a 21.7-yard aDOT last season, meaning one deep ball can cash this ticket even if he stays third in the target hierarchy.

Pat Mayo made a bold season-long call, saying Daniel Jones could out-produce Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud in 2025 now that he is paired with Shane Steichen in Indianapolis. Mayo likes the fit because Steichen will lean on designed runs, unlocking Jones’ rushing upside while simultaneously widening lanes for Jonathan Taylor. He compared the ceiling to the efficient 2022 campaign Jones posted under Brian Daboll and believes the legs-plus-scheme combo gives Jones a league-winning profile at his dirt-cheap ADP in best-ball and redraft formats. Mayo acknowledged the floor—“he could also be benched in Week 3”—but is willing to swing for the upside late in drafts.

Nez Takes mirrored the Jeudy thesis by taking Michael Pittman higher than 4.5 receptions. Pittman has been a target hog whenever active and faces a defense that bleeds volume to boundary receivers. Nez emphasized Pittman’s consistent double-digit target upside, making the line feel "shockingly low" for Week 1 Pick’em cards.

Burke also suggested a flier on Josh Downs at +1500. Downs’ 6.9-yard average depth of target keeps him involved on quick-hitting concepts near the goal line, and he quietly saw 13 red-zone targets last year, one more than Michael Pittman Jr. Burke anticipates that Jones’ conservative tendencies funnel short throws to the slot when windows tighten. Miami’s nickel unit allowed the eighth-highest completion rate inside the 10, so Burke believes Downs is undervalued as an alternative to Taylor in first-TD pools.

Adam Burke played Jonathan Taylor +400 as the most likely first-TD scorer when Indianapolis hosts Miami. Taylor logged the NFL’s fifth-most red-zone carries last season and remains the centerpiece inside the 20. Burke expects Shane Steichen to lean heavily on the ground game because new quarterback Daniel Jones has historically struggled pushing the ball downfield and owns one of the league’s highest turnover rates on deep attempts. With Miami ranking 28th in red-zone rush EPA allowed, Burke sees Taylor getting the opening punch more often than his modest price implies.

Eric Moody highlighted rookie tight end Tyler Warren as an immediate streamer. The No. 14 pick racked up 1,233 yards and 15 touchdowns in his final college season and now pairs with Daniel Jones, who prefers throwing between the hashes. Miami allowed over 13 fantasy points per game to tight ends last season and lost multiple coverage stalwarts this spring. In Lou Anarumo’s new man-coverage scheme, Warren projects for 6-8 targets and prime red-zone work, making him a top-12 option in Week 1.

Iyer advised laying 1.5 with Indianapolis, arguing Daniel Jones brings enough stability to unlock Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren and company while the Dolphins enter with negative ‘vibes’ around coach Mike McDaniel. His 23-20 projection has the Colts winning and covering.

Backing Indy ‑1, Prisco highlighted Daniel Jones drawing a soft Miami corner group in his Colts debut while Tyreek Hill’s health keeps the total lofty. He sees both clubs trading chunk plays but trusts Jones to lean on Michael Pittman and Jonathan Taylor in a dome shootout. His projected 33-30 Indy win makes the near-pick’em price attractive for bettors who want exposure to a game he expects to clear 60 combined points.

Ulrich advised fantasy managers to move on from Alec Pierce now that Indianapolis chose Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson. Jones completed only 19 passes that traveled 20-plus yards last year, ranking 36th in the league, a death sentence for Pierce’s down-field skill set. Without the weekly long-TD upside the pick was drafted for, Ulrich prefers stashing lottery-ticket wideouts such as Troy Franklin or Dontayvion Wicks.

Davis Mattek recommended closing drafts with DJ Giddens rather than spending mid-round picks on established backups. Giddens frequently goes in the final round—or even sits on waivers—yet Mattek believes his contingent value equals or tops pricier RB2s. While Giddens might project for only three PPR points in a reserve role, any injury ahead of him vaults his workload and instantly makes him a weekly starter. Mattek's preferred roster build is to collect multiple cheap handcuffs—Giddens, Kyle Manungai, Taj Brooks—because floor points are replaceable, but injury-driven upside wins leagues.

In the same wide-variance matchup, Erickson suggested sprinkling alt lines on Jonathan Taylor to rush for 150+ yards. If the game turns into a points bonanza, he expects Indianapolis to lean on Taylor’s breakaway ability against a Dolphins front that struggled versus power runs last season, making the long-shot prop an enticing payoff.

Sam Monson argued that making Daniel Jones the Colts’ starter leaves Indianapolis stuck in the league’s middle class. Running a tongue-in-cheek 10,000-simulation thought experiment, Monson said the most common result lands Jones exactly where he has always lived—rank-average efficiency illustrated by an 85 career passer rating and sporadic 2022-style spikes. In that scenario, the Colts "aren’t winning that much," a phrase he clarified as missing the playoffs despite a soft AFC South. Monson added that Indy still lacks proven edge rush juice behind DeForest Buckner, so there is no complementary defensive pressure to bail the offense out. The actionable play is to fade Colts win-total overs and treat all Indianapolis pass catchers as low-ceiling options in season-long formats until the quarterback situation materially improves.

Polzin said the two best salary-relief receivers under $4K are led by Adani Mitchell, who has generated the most camp buzz of any Colt. With chemistry building between Mitchell and Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce’s role unchanged, Polzin would make Mitchell a core play if Josh Downs sits, calling the $3.4K tag "intriguing" even if Downs suits up.

Eric Polzin said Jonathan Taylor is one of the strongest Week 1 DFS running-back plays at just $6.8k. He expects Indianapolis to control the pace against a Miami offense that may miss its top two backs, its best receiver, and last year’s starting tight end. With Anthony Richardson bringing more stability to the offense and Josh Downs still banged up, Polzin projected roughly 23 touches for Taylor in a potential blow-out victory. The combination of projected volume, positive game script and depressed salary makes Taylor a core cash-game option.

Eric Polzin labeled Jonathan Taylor the premier running-back play for Week 1. He views Daniel Jones as a clear quarterback upgrade for Indianapolis, eliminating the volatility Anthony Richardson introduced and creating more consistent, drive-sustaining offense. Taylor faces a Dolphins team that could be without its top two running backs and possibly Tyreek Hill, circumstances that should keep Miami’s scoring in check and let Indy feed its bell-cow. Polzin is building lineups around Taylor’s expected workload and ceiling in this matchup.

Polzin is laying the 1.5 points with Indianapolis because Miami’s injury list is long. Reports suggest De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill ‘should’ play, but nothing is confirmed. Until they are officially cleared he’s treating the Dolphins offense as short-handed. On the Colts side he believes sticking with Daniel Jones, who quietly graded out better down the stretch last season, maximizes their win equity while Anthony Richardson continues to develop. Given the uncertain Miami skill-position availability, Polzin expects Indy to control the game and cover the small number.

Andy Holloway urged drafters to ignore platform ADP and grab Colts tight end Tyler Warren in the seventh—if not the sixth—round. He highlighted Warren’s "certifiable dog" pedigree: wildcat snaps at Penn State, dominance versus man coverage, and a red-zone skill set that creates constant mismatches. Holloway noted that Warren is already going in the sixth round of sharper 2QB leagues despite an eighth-round consensus ADP, warning that waiting on him will get you sniped. The opportunity cost is low—passing on backs like Javonte Williams or Tyrone Tracy who lack true league-winning upside—while Warren possesses a realistic TE1 overall ceiling in Shane Steichen’s tight-end-friendly scheme.

Shawn Siegele said Michael Pittman is a screaming value because drafters are letting last year’s injury and the current Josh Downs ankle issue pull both receivers down the board. Pittman gutted out 2024 at roughly 70 percent health yet still averaged more than 1,000 yards over the past three seasons and caught 99 and 109 balls in 2022 and 2023. He does not turn 28 until October, so managers are still getting a wideout in his physical prime. Siegele added that Shane Steichen’s offense looked noticeably more on-schedule when Daniel Jones ran it in preseason, a change that should keep Pittman’s high-volume possession role intact. Bottom line: Pittman should be selected before Downs and well ahead of his current ADP in season-long drafts.

Ben Gretch labeled Michael Pittman Jr.’s ninth-round ADP "utterly absurd." Pittman has logged 156 and 141 targets in his last two seasons and now benefits from Daniel Jones steering what Gretch expects to be a fast-paced, high-play-volume offense. Pittman will "run all the routes" and dominate first-read looks even with Josh Downs and rookie Tyler Warren involved. Gretch urged drafters to select Pittman multiple rounds ahead of market as a reliable target hog with top-20 positional upside.

Evan Tarracciano said Anthony Richardson should be taken off redraft boards after losing the Colts’ camp competition to new signing Daniel Jones. Richardson’s lingering injuries and sub-48% completion rate in 2024 forced Indianapolis to look elsewhere, and Shane Steichen’s “hard to say” comment about Richardson’s future signals the organization could move on. Tarracciano sees no clear path back to fantasy relevance, noting that athletic upside alone cannot overcome a bench role with an uncertain roster spot.

Laghezza calls Tyler Warren a Round-8 cheat code, comparing his Swiss-army-knife usage at Penn State—1,200 receiving yards on 108 catches plus four rushing TDs—to the weapon Shane Steichen covets. With no established pass-catcher monopolizing targets in Indianapolis, Laghezza believes the rookie tight end could immediately lead the team in looks, making him a late-round difference maker.

John Laghezza labeled Jonathan Taylor the must-grab Round-2 back because he monopolizes the Indianapolis backfield: nearly 75% touch share, almost every goal-line carry, and legitimate passing-game involvement. Laghezza loves pairing that volume with Shane Steichen’s up-tempo scheme, the Lucas Oil fast track, and six games against a defensively weak AFC South, calling Taylor the last true bell cow available after Round 1.

Ray Summerlin pivoted to fantasy and called Daniel Jones a clear stylistic upgrade for Michael Pittman, Josh Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Jones’ short-area accuracy and willingness to pepper underneath routes align perfectly with the Colts’ top receiving trio, whereas Anthony Richardson’s scramble-and-bomb tendencies rarely did. Because Steichen needs wins now, Summerlin expects a quick-hitting, high-percentage pass game that funnels targets to Pittman and Downs and creates red-zone chances for Warren. He advised treating all three as undervalued in season-long and best-ball drafts if Jones is named the starter.

Warren Sharp said Daniel Jones still is "not a good quarterback," yet Indianapolis can smash an undersized win total if Shane Steichen baby-sits him the same way Brian Daboll did in 2022. Sharp reminded listeners that Daboll’s first-year training-wheels approach raised Jones’ floor and the entire offense’s floor, while letting him “spread his wings” in 2023 caused the system to crumble. Steichen, he believes, will lean on quick reads, designed runs and a conservative game plan that hides Jones’ down-field weaknesses. Combined with an easier-than-average schedule and a defense Sharp trusts to keep games close, he projects the Colts to grind out eight-plus victories, making them an over bet in win-total markets.

Rich Hribar finished his draft by defaulting to Indianapolis yet still made the case for an over. The Colts survived last season’s "literally worst offensive climate" and still won eight games, then overhauled the defense by adding Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum and, more importantly, replacing Gus Bradley with Lou Anarumo. Hribar believes Big Lou’s schematic chops will raise the floor in a division light on elite quarterbacks. He has "no faith" in the Colts’ own QB room but thinks the roster is the best of the remaining bad teams, which makes topping their low posted win total a smart bet.