Larry Hartstein recommended betting Isiah Pacheco over 4.5 rushing touchdowns at ‑130. He dismissed last season’s fractured leg as an outlier and reminded listeners that Pacheco scored seven times in his last fully healthy season and five as a rookie. Now back at 216 pounds and called “tremendous” by Andy Reid, Pacheco is the clear goal-line hammer. Hartstein believes five rushing scores is a conservative projection in Kansas City’s potent offense.

Larry Hartstein also prefers the over on Kansas City’s 11.5-win total, pointing to Mahomes’ career floor of 11 victories, the expected health of Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice (who combined for only six regular-season games last year), and defensive upgrades such as Charles Omenihu and Christian Fulton. He highlighted rookie LT Josh Simmons as meaningful line help and framed last year’s perfect one-score record as unsustainable yet still sees 11-13 wins as the realistic band, giving a slight edge to the over.

Alex Seliznick said he would still take the Chiefs over 11.5 wins at even money, projecting a 12-to-13-victory season. He acknowledged Kansas City owns the fifth-hardest schedule by projected win totals and plays in an upgraded AFC West, yet he trusts the Andy Reid–Patrick Mahomes pairing, a defense he ranks top-5, and offseason help on the offensive line to offset expected regression from last year’s 11-0 record in one-score games. Because Mahomes has never finished below 11 wins, Seliznick views 12 as the median outcome and sees slight value on the over rather than the under.

Alex Seliznick advised passing on Mahomes’ MVP odds, arguing the Chiefs care more about postseason health than regular-season stat chasing. He expects a balanced approach that leverages a top defense and ground game, projecting sub-5,000-yard, sub-40-TD numbers—production he believes won’t outshine volume candidates like Joe Burrow. With the AFC crowded, Seliznick prefers allocating futures money elsewhere.

Larry Hartstein likes Mahomes at +650 to win MVP. He noted the award almost always goes to a quarterback on a top-two seed and that Kansas City consistently fits that profile. Hartstein expects a more vertical offense with Worthy, Brown and Rice complementing Kelce behind an upgraded line, giving Mahomes the splash plays and narrative momentum necessary to outpace rivals.

Pat Mayo said he is drafting Travis Kelce ahead of T.J. Hockenson even though Kelce looked "pretty washed" in 2024. Kelce still finished as the overall TE6 while being hampered by knee and ankle issues and is now going off the board as TE7, only three picks after Hockenson. Mayo’s entire bet is that a double-digit-touchdown season—something Kelce has managed in six of the last eight years—pushes him back into the top-5 at the position. He doesn’t see a similar ceiling path for Hockenson in a Minnesota offense that must feed Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and an expanded run game. Draft the cheaper veteran, hope for 10 TDs, and you can still move on quickly if his snap share collapses.

Jake Ciely is taking more shots on Travis Kelce now that a Rashee Rice suspension seems imminent. Without Rice, Ciely expects Kelce to reclaim the No. 2 role in Kansas City’s passing game and believes a double-digit touchdown season is back in play. He reminded listeners that even Kelce’s supposedly washed 2024 campaign still produced a TE6 finish, so any efficiency rebound would push him back into the top five. Ciely warned that if Rice’s legal case is unexpectedly delayed until 2026 he would be "completely out," because Kelce would slide to third in the target hierarchy. The takeaway: draft Kelce at his late-sixth-round ADP only while a Rice suspension remains likely.

Jake Ciely argued that Travis Kelce could jump back into the elite tier if Rashee Rice is suspended for roughly six games. Without Rice absorbing intermediate targets, Patrick Mahomes would again funnel volume to Kelce, negating the dip we saw last year. Ciely likened Kelce to the ‘Joe Burrow’ of the tight-end landscape—slightly discounted after a down season but capable of reclaiming positional dominance once extra targets reappear. Fantasy managers worried about Kelce’s 2024 drop-off should view the Rice situation as a clear upside catalyst.

Larry Hartstein echoed the over on Mahomes’ 27.5-TD prop, stressing that Travis Kelce’s return alone should push the total back into the 30s. With a deeper, healthier receiving group and an offseason emphasis on restoring explosive down-field throws, Hartstein expects Mahomes to land comfortably in the mid-30s—well clear of the posted number.

Alex Seliznick hammered the over on Patrick Mahomes’ 27.5 passing-touchdown prop (-115). Mahomes has averaged 35 TD passes since becoming a starter and has never finished below 29. Seliznick expects Kansas City to "open it up" with a healthy Hollywood Brown, second-year burner Xavier Worthy, a reinstated Rashee Rice, and of course Travis Kelce. Behind a fortified line featuring new LT Jalen Moore, Seliznick projects 32-plus touchdowns, making the current line at least four or five scores too low.

Hayden Winks said rookie left tackle Josh Simmons immediately locking down the blind side is one of camp’s biggest stories and the hidden key to Kansas City’s 2025 fantasy eruption. The Chiefs led the league in quick-pressure rate last year; better tackle play will let Patrick Mahomes hold the ball and launch deep to Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown—a much faster trio than 2024’s weapons. With Simmons looking like a top-10 talent and Jawan Taylor facing competition on the right, Hayden is stacking Mahomes heavily in Best Ball tournaments, betting on a revival of long touchdowns and spike weeks.

Sean Koerner explained a two-step preseason strategy built around Andy Reid’s predictable habit of pulling starters after one scoring drive. Reid often tells the media Mahomes will play an entire half, "but he’s lying," Koerner said. The Chiefs open the game aggressively, script a touchdown, and immediately park Mahomes on the bench. Koerner illustrated the edge with a past Cardinals matchup where he hammered Kansas City –1.5 in the first quarter, then live-bet Arizona as soon as the TD went on the board. He advised listeners to replicate the plan any time Reid promises extended run: lay the early points with the Chiefs, then pivot to the opponent (or under) once the broadcast shows Mahomes unstrapping his helmet on the sideline.

Ben Gretch said fantasy managers in Season-Long PPR formats should take Xavier Worthy ahead of Rashee Rice. Gretch expects Rice to miss "potentially up to six games" once the league rules on his personal-conduct case, opening the door for Worthy to emerge as Patrick Mahomes’ featured wideout. He pointed to Worthy’s age-adjusted production—Worthy was 21 during his debut season while Rice did not post a dominant college campaign until he was older than Worthy is today—as evidence of greater developmental upside. Worthy closed last year with 5-plus receptions in every game from Week 14 through the playoffs as Kansas City manufactured touches for him and even used him on sweeps, a sign the coaching staff already views him as a focal point. Chiefs coaches have spent the offseason emphasizing a return to the vertical passing game, and the front office addressed last year’s left-tackle problem, giving Mahomes more time to connect deep. Gretch believes those near-miss deep targets—plus Worthy’s 4.27 speed—put a Tyreek-Hill-level ceiling in play if the two start hitting bombs consistently. Bottom line: Worthy offers similar or higher upside than Rice without the looming suspension risk, making him the preferred pick at current prices.

Ray Summerlin argued that the market has over-corrected on Rashee Rice. While drafters treat the looming suspension as if Rice will be a zeros across the board, Summerlin stressed that any absence is not injury-related, eliminating re-injury risk, and best-ball lineups replace those weeks with a bench score. He prefers Rice over rookie Xavier Worthy at current ADPs, noting that even a 6–8 game sample of Rice in Patrick Mahomes’ offense could outscore a full year of replacement-level options. Summerlin believes Rice is still being under-drafted relative to his likely high-efficiency target share once active.

Chris Raybon moved Patrick Mahomes up to his overall QB6 and slotted him clearly ahead of Baker Mayfield. Raybon’s model leans on Mahomes’ multi-year track record and the fact that nothing in Kansas City’s brain-trust changed – Andy Reid is still calling the shots, whereas Mayfield just lost OC Liam Coen. Raybon expects a meaningful bump in passing efficiency because the target tree should tilt away from an aging Travis Kelce toward wideouts. Marquise Brown projects for far more than the two cameo games he logged last year, and Raybon believes Rashee Rice will still suit up for the bulk of the season even if the league hands down a short suspension. Two field-stretchers plus one of the league’s most efficient YAC receivers raises Mahomes’ explosive-play rate. Raybon also noted early-camp buzz around rookie RB Bershard Smith, a true pass-catching back the Chiefs lacked in 2024; more running-back targets would pad Mahomes’ yardage floor. An upgraded offensive line could be the final catalyst for a rebound toward 4,400-plus yards and 32-34 TDs. Bottom line: in a pocket-passer tier he barely trusts, Raybon is taking Mahomes whenever he slips past ADP and leaving Mayfield for someone else.

Sean Koerner projected Patrick Mahomes to bounce back to roughly 260–265 passing yards per game—up from last year’s 245 but well short of his 309-yards-per-game peak. The main catalysts he cited were a full season of Hollywood Brown as a true deep threat, Xavier Worthy’s Year-2 leap, and the possibility that Rashee Rice avoids a lengthy suspension. Koerner still tempered expectations, pointing to Travis Kelce’s age-related decline, Kansas City’s recent shift toward slower, methodical drives, and Mahomes’ limited rushing production as reasons the overall ceiling is lower than the dual-threat elites. He ranks Mahomes QB7, a solid pick in the early-fifth once the top-six are gone, but emphasized that the Chiefs’ current offensive philosophy caps his weekly spike-week potential compared to names like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen.

Davis Mattek called Xavier Worthy the clear fantasy buy in Kansas City. He bumped the second-year wideout up to No. 31 overall in his personal rankings—well ahead of ADP—citing multiple edges. First, Worthy already flashed the horizontal-stretch role the Chiefs lacked whenever Rashee Rice wasn’t on the field, so Mattek expects him to hoover up early-season targets while Rice serves his suspension. Second, if Travis Kelce really is ‘dusty,’ Patrick Mahomes will lean even harder on quick-hitting throws that play directly to Worthy’s skill set. And if the offense bounces back to its 2020-2021 efficiency, nobody benefits more than the speedster who can turn schemed touches into 60-yard house calls. Mattek emphasized that the backfield depth (Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell, etc.) offers little target competition; those swing routes and screens could instead become Worthy’s bread and butter. Given the lack of ADP movement despite the Rice news, Mattek is piling on shares in the mid-fourth and expects another surge once the suspension is formally announced.

Davis Mattek downgraded Rashee Rice after the looming suspension, saying the sophomore wideout belongs at the 4/5 turn alongside Courtland Sutton and Jameson Williams rather than in the late-second where he was still going immediately after the legal news broke. Mattek maintained Rice can still matter in Best Ball because any missed games will occur before bye-weeks start, but the opportunity cost of an early-round pick is now too steep. He’s baking in a four-to-six-game absence and the added risk that Xavier Worthy could muscle his way into a larger target share while Rice is out. Until the NFL announces the exact length of the suspension, Mattek is letting the market come to him and will only click Rice if he slides past ADP into that Round 5 sweet spot.

Davis Mattek flagged Elijah Mitchell as one of his favorite near-undrafted dart throws on DraftKings. He noted that Mitchell is showing well enough in camp that beat writers expect him to make Kansas City’s 53-man roster, yet the running back is being selected in almost none of the early Best Ball drafts. By contrast, veteran Kareem Hunt is ‘basically 100 percent drafted’ even though the Chiefs have given no indication he’s a roster lock. Mattek’s logic is simple: Mitchell offers asymmetric upside at the very end of drafts—if he sticks as the RB2 behind Isiah Pacheco he immediately gains weekly startability—while Hunt costs a pick that could be used on higher-ceiling positions and may not survive final cuts. Because roster-rate leverage is a proven edge in Best Ball tournaments and Mitchell’s path to relevance hinges mainly on staying healthy through August, Mattek is smashing the rookie in Round 18 and hasn’t clicked Hunt’s name once.

JJ Zachariason said the market has not reacted enough to Rashee Rice’s expected suspension. Worthy’s DraftKings ADP has climbed only about four spots all summer and he is still routinely available in the mid-4th round even though Rice has fallen a full round. Zachariason argued that a multi-game Rice absence vacates a meaningful chunk of the Chiefs’ target share, and Andy Reid’s scheme plus Patrick Mahomes’ established passing volume makes those targets highly bankable. He noted Worthy’s average depth of target fell in last year’s second half, showing the team already trusts him on underneath routes that could further inflate his early-season volume. Because the rookie can lock in a larger role before Rice returns and offers week-winning spike plays ideal for best ball scoring, JJ views Worthy as a 3/4-turn pick and is aggressively loading up (about 12% portfolio exposure) before the inevitable ADP jump once an official suspension is announced.

Rich Ryan believes Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is an ADP mistake at his current late-9th-round price. With Rashee Rice facing a 4-to-6-game suspension, Ryan projects Brown for an 8-to-9-target weekly diet in September, noting Brown’s career 24 % target share and 12.1 aDOT align perfectly with Patrick Mahomes’ deep-shot tendencies. He likened the situation to Tyreek Hill’s early Kansas City usage and sees Brown as the bridge that lets drafters take delayed-production bets on Rice, Jordan Addison, or Ohio State rookies. Ryan is scooping Hollywood any time he slips outside pick 100, calling the move “free early spike weeks” that can vault best-ball teams into Round 2 before the suspended players even return.

Rich Ryan moved Rashee Rice from a late-second ADP all the way down to the 4/5 turn, grouping him with Courtland Sutton and Jameson Williams. He believes that range finally bakes in the uncertainty of a looming multi-game suspension and the possibility that Xavier Worthy cements himself as Patrick Mahomes’ preferred horizontal target during Rice’s absence. Ryan noted that a four-to-six-game ban would lop 25-35 % off Rice’s season-long snaps—material in best ball where every weekly score matters—and pointed to Kansas City’s 2023 "stuck-in-the-mud" passing efficiency as another reason to discount ceiling projections. Until the NFL announces the exact length, Ryan is capping his exposure and will only click Rice when he slips past pick 45, preferring to chase the cheaper upside offered by Worthy and late-round Elijah Mitchell shares.

Rich Ryan said Elijah Mitchell is a must-add flyer in the final rounds because beat reports now have him as a "really strong bet" to make Kansas City’s 53-man roster. Mitchell is being drafted in fewer than 15 % of DraftKings contests—essentially free—while 31-year-old Kareem Hunt carries an inexplicable 100 % draft rate despite no guaranteed role. Ryan emphasized that backing the correct Chiefs RB2 has historically produced spike-week touchdowns in Patrick Mahomes’ offense (Jerick McKinnon’s 10 TDs in 2022, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s early 2023 burst). If Mitchell simply sticks through camp he becomes live for that same high-value goal-line and screen-game work, giving drafters asymmetrical upside without burning premium capital. He is loading up on Mitchell when he needs a RB6 and fading Hunt entirely.

JJ Zachariason said Xavier Worthy is a screaming buy at his current mid-4th-round DraftKings ADP, calling it a "three–four turn" price that has not adjusted enough after the expectation that Rashee Rice will be suspended 4–6 games. Zachariason pointed out that Rice’s ADP has already fallen a full round, but Worthy has moved only 2.3 spots week-over-week (four spots all summer), creating a value pocket. He argued the suspension frees up a meaningful slice of the Chiefs’ target pie early in the year, and that volume is likely to funnel toward the remaining talented pass-catchers—namely Worthy—because Andy Reid’s scheme and Patrick Mahomes’ pass volume remain constant. Zachariason also highlighted Worthy’s second-half 2023 usage shift: a lower average depth of target and more horizontal routes that boosted his weekly floor while preserving his vertical splash-play upside. An early-season target bump could help the second-year wideout cement himself as Mahomes’ clear No. 2 weapon, giving him week-winning spike weeks that are perfect for best ball. Zachariason said he has pushed his portfolio to 12% exposure and will keep drafting Worthy in round 4 until the market corrects.

Overzet highlighted that his Round-2 Rice shares are underwater (-9.1 average CLV) now that the Chiefs wideout’s ADP has cratered to 37.5 amid suspension concerns. Those early picks will compete against managers who scoop Rice in the 4th-5th round, creating a structural disadvantage. He recommends steering clear until the market fully bakes in the games-missed risk.

Best Ball Guy urged drafters to scoop Tyquan Thornton before his ADP catches up. Reports say Thornton is now "running with the ones," and BBG emphasized that a 6-foot-5 field stretcher who can win outside has no business lingering in the final few rounds. New England’s thin receiver room makes Thornton one positive camp report away from locking in a full-time role, giving him the exact spike-week profile best-ball players need in the late teens. With a dirt-cheap price tag and a soft post-Thanksgiving schedule indoors or in mild weather, BBG labeled him a free lottery ticket to tack onto Patriots or opposing Week-17 stacks.

Best Ball Guy warned that letting Rashee Rice slip to the 5/6 turn can create "super-teams" if the Chiefs wideout avoids a lengthy suspension. He compared the situation to early-summer Joe Burrow drafters who were grabbing the quarterback naked in Round 6 just to block elite stacks from forming on the wrap. Because Rice’s legal outcome is still uncertain, his price could jump a full round the moment there is even a hint the league will go easy. Grabbing him in Round 5 now protects your portfolio from watching an explosive Chiefs WR land on rosters that already spent premium capital elsewhere, a leverage edge that matters in small-field best-ball contests like the $50 Chow Chow.

Shawn Siegele argued Jalen Royals is custom-built to restore Kansas City’s short-yardage touchdown gimmick that disappeared last season. He reminded listeners that in 2022 the Chiefs produced 12 receiving TDs on passes traveling two yards or fewer—six to Jerick McKinnon, three to Kadarius Toney, three to Mecole Hardman—before that wrinkle was absent in 2023. Royals’ burst and open-field wiggle make him the obvious motion/shovel-pass replacement, and Siegele projects four-to-six red-zone scores on minimal volume. With Rashee Rice likely suspended and Marquise Brown occupying perimeter attention, Royals offers cheap exposure to Patrick Mahomes’ ceiling and creates a unique Week-17 bring-back opposite Denver stacks. Siegele called him a "final-round spike-week cheat code" who can win tournaments without ever commanding a full-time role.

Ben Gretch warned that Rashee Rice’s Round-5 best-ball price ignores two red flags. First, any early-season suspension means the sophomore will have to "board a moving train," Mike Tomlin’s term for players trying to re-enter an offense that has already found rhythm without them. Second, Rice’s 2023 fantasy appeal rested on an 81 % catch rate on ultra-short targets (league-low 4.5-yard aDOT), a combo Gretch doubts is sustainable over a full season. With Travis Kelce, new arrival Hollywood Brown and rookies Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals all demanding snaps, Gretch sees a realistic path where Rice returns, plays fewer routes than drafters expect, and never justifies his mid-round cost. He prefers taking the rookies or even buying Patrick Mahomes naked rather than assuming Rice reprises last year’s volume-plus-efficiency blend.

Shawn Siegele urged drafting rookie Jalen Royals in the final two rounds as an asymmetric upside play. Kansas City’s front office has said their internal board had Royals graded a full round higher than where he was selected, and Siegele trusts that eval given the Chiefs’ history of uncovering hidden receiving talent. With Rashee Rice facing a likely early-season suspension and Marquise Brown commanding defensive attention, Royals could be thrust into high-leverage snaps sooner than expected. His vertical skill set mirrors what the Chiefs lacked when injuries piled up last year, and Siegele believes a couple of mid-season 50-yard TDs are well within the rookie’s range. Because Royals often lasts until Round 20 while teammates Brown and Rice cost top-100 picks, Siegele sees him as the clearest way to buy into Patrick Mahomes’ passing ceiling without paying sticker price.

Hayden Winks countered that Mahomes’ 85th-overall price is exactly the profile that has historically produced tournament-winning best-ball teams: an in-pocket quarterback with a proven overall QB1 ceiling whose pass-catchers (Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown) are all beatable at cost. Winks referenced Tom Brady and Joe Burrow seasons where suppressed ADPs on elite passers plus stackable weapons created runaway advance rates. He acknowledged the running-back and wide-receiver projection cliff that sits directly after Mahomes’ range, but argued that when you already have a Worthy or Rice share on your roster, clicking Mahomes consolidates upside and frees you to hammer value later. He also expects left-tackle upgrade Josh Simmons to mitigate last year’s pressure problems, setting the stage for another 4,500-yard, 35-TD campaign. Bottom line: in Best Ball Mania, Winks is willing to bet on a discounted Mahomes stack delivering a top-three QB season even if he passes on him in traditional redraft builds.

Jakob Sanderson gave Mahomes a "slight thumbs-down" at QB6/85 overall, arguing that selecting him forces you to pass on the final tier of running backs and wideouts with locked-in volume such as Michael Pittman or high-upside rookies like Emeka Egbuka. He pointed out Mahomes has finished QB8 and QB11 the last two years and that the 2025 quarterback pool is exceptionally deep. Instead of paying an eighth-round premium, Sanderson prefers either spending up for one of the true dual-threat elites in the top four rounds or waiting for discount pocket passers — Trevor Lawrence with Travis Hunter, Justin Herbert in Year 2 of Kellen Moore with Lad McConkey — who cost 40–50 picks later. In redraft he would rather grab two late "quarterback-window" options such as Anthony Richardson for free, while in best ball he only clicks Mahomes when the stack falls into his lap at a discount. The play is to leverage depth at the position and allocate draft capital to scarcer RB/WR assets.

Sam Monson urged listeners to keep hammering Chiefs futures and playoff DFS stacks because Patrick Mahomes historically morphs into a mistake-free machine once the postseason starts. Monson cited PFF’s turnover-worthy-play rate, noting Mahomes sits in the middle of the pack during regular-season games but drops to "Justin Herbert levels"—i.e., top-five cautious—each January. That single change, he argued, alters Kansas City’s entire offensive profile: long drives stay alive, defensive game scripts tighten, and Andy Reid doesn’t need to ‘save’ exotic concepts the way fans assume. The Chief’s recent Super Bowl track record despite mid-season funks illustrates how valuable that shift is. If you are building playoff best-ball teams, stacking Mahomes with Kansas City pass-catchers remains a +EV move, and bettors should not shy away from AFC or Super Bowl tickets even if the offense looks pedestrian in October.

Shawn Siegele recommended stashing Jalen Royals in the final rounds as cheap insurance against a potential Rashee Rice suspension. While he made clear Royals will not fully replace Rice, Siegele noted that even part-time work in Patrick Mahomes’ offense could create touchdown-driven flex weeks, especially with injury-prone veterans like Hollywood Brown also on the depth chart. Royals is “basically free,” yet owns enough vertical juice to carve out snaps that matter more in best ball than managed formats. The payoff profile, Siegele said, is similar to last year’s late-season Marvin Mims or Pat Bryant: low probability but high payout if the depth chart breaks his way.

Jonathan Fuller recommended treating Rashee Rice’s looming suspension as a buying opportunity. Rice posted a 13.23 PPR points-per-game average and strong utilization metrics last season, proving he can command targets from Patrick Mahomes. Fuller stressed that a handful of missed games will not dent his long-term ceiling and urged dynasty managers to send out offers while the narrative is still negative.

Whalen warned drafters that Rashee Rice’s ADP must slide until the NFL announces discipline stemming from his July 17th incident. He was comfortable taking Rice in Round 2 prior to the news, but now views any 3- to 6-game suspension as a realistic outcome. Whalen will not make a final ranking adjustment until an official ruling lands, yet advised listeners to treat Rice as a boom-bust pick whose early-season absence could cost precious head-to-head wins.

In light of Rashee Rice’s impending suspension, Whalen bumped rookie burner Xavier Worthy up within Tier 5. He expects Andy Reid to lean on Worthy’s speed opposite Travis Kelce to keep defenses honest while Rice serves whatever ban the league hands down. Worthy now projects for an every-down role out of the gate, making him a viable upside swing in the mid-rounds of 2025 best-ball and season-long drafts.

Jeff Mueller DPT framed Isaiah Pacheco as this season’s Tony Pollard—a back poised to reclaim lost burst in the second year after fibula fracture and tight-rope fixation. Players in Year 1 off that surgery usually suffer a 20–30 percent dip in acceleration, deceleration, and cutting ability, which matched Pacheco’s ugly post-return efficiency behind a leaky Chiefs line. In Year 2 those movement patterns typically normalize, so Mueller is "not fading Pacheco at all" from an injury standpoint. Usage remains the wild card: Kansas City re-signed Kareem Hunt, added Elijah Mitchell, and drafted Bershard Smith, hinting at a committee, yet Mueller expects Pacheco to handle the early-down load while Rashee Rice serves a probable suspension. At an RB26 price tag, he is drafting Pacheco while simply assuming the runner’s violent, upright style will cost him a game or two along the way.

Fuller identified Mahomes as a prime rebound candidate after two straight ‘just fine’ fantasy years (max 27 TDs, 4.5% TD rate, career-low YPA). From 2018-22 he averaged 38.4 TDs with a 6.5% TD rate, so Fuller sees plenty of room for upside if Kansas City’s pass game stretches the field as camp reports suggest. He pointed to a much stronger arsenal even if Rashee Rice serves a short suspension: first-round burner Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, a healthier Rice, Travis Kelce, and rookies Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith. Because Mahomes now goes at the back of the ‘elite’ tier, Fuller views the opportunity cost as the lowest in years and would buy if preseason usage confirms a more aggressive, down-field approach.

Pete Overzet reminded readers that Round-2 Rashee Rice shares are already underwater. Rice’s looming suspension has cratered his ADP to 37.5, giving those picks a –9.1 closing-line value in Pete’s own data pull. He warned that early Rice teams will have to beat opponents who can now draft the Chiefs wideout in the 4th or even 5th round, creating an immediate quality gap. The takeaway: if you missed the initial dip, keep fading until the news fully bottoms out the price.

With an ADP of 65 (Round 6), McFarland calls Patrick Mahomes the ultimate fearful fade and a potential league-winner if Kansas City’s young WRs pop. Despite two down fantasy years (18.3 and 18.8 PPG), Mahomes still runs for 20-24 yards per game and now pairs breakout candidates Rashee Rice (16.4 PPG Weeks 14-Super Bowl ’23) and Xavier Worthy (16.6 PPG Weeks 14-SB ’24) once Rice’s likely suspension ends. Andy Reid’s motion/play-design mastery plus a solid O-line keeps efficiency intact. Model: 15.6 floor, 18.9 median, 23.5 ceiling. McFarland admits he hasn’t drafted him enough and warns passing could look "VERY DUMB" by Week 6.

Geoff Ulrich listed Xavier Worthy as one of the NFL’s biggest risers after the rookie closed Super Bowl LIX with 8 catches for 157 yards and 2 TDs while most viewers were grabbing dessert. Ulrich noted that Worthy’s arrow points further up with potential discipline looming for Rashee Rice, clearing a path to immediate target volume alongside Patrick Mahomes. The Super Bowl performance combined with Rice’s uncertainty makes Worthy a priority upside bet in the middle rounds of 2025 drafts.

Hayden Winks maintained Patrick Mahomes as his QB2 and called him an undervalued MVP wager despite last season’s worst down-field stats of Mahomes’ career. Winks blamed the dip on both Kansas City tackles giving up the league’s highest quick-pressure rate, not on Mahomes’ skill set. With the line upgraded and first-round speedster Xavier Worthy stretching defenses vertically, he expects Mahomes’ deep ball to return to 2020-level fireworks while the underneath assassinations continue. Winks also cited Reid’s willingness to call designed runs in the postseason—Mahomes even truck-sticked a defender for a TD—as another hidden ceiling piece. In short, market fatigue has created a buying opportunity for fantasy drafters and futures bettors.

Chris Raybon advised fading whichever running back the market anoints as the Chiefs starter—currently Isiah Pacheco—because Andy Reid’s offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes and churns through runners quickly. Kansas City has ranked bottom-five in early-down rush rate the last two seasons, and Reid routinely benches backs after a single mistake. No Chiefs runner drafted inside the top-30 at the position has finished higher than RB20 over the past four years. Raybon said paying ADP for the "lead" Chief exposes drafters to a floor of split snaps, vanishing goal-line work, and sudden demotions.

Kerrane suggested closing drafts with Kareem Hunt as a pure leverage play against an unsettled Chiefs backfield. He and BBG agreed that while Isiah Pacheco is penciled in as the starter, Kansas City has been ‘ambiguous’ about workload distribution, leaving the door open for a veteran like Hunt to siphon high-value touches. Unlike the Bengals’ depth chart, where Chase Brown is clearly ahead, the Chiefs could integrate Hunt immediately on passing downs or near the goal line—roles that deliver outsized fantasy value. For zero-RB builds, Kerrane likes the idea of grabbing Hunt as an eighth back, arguing the minimal opportunity cost is justified by the contingency upside if Pacheco falters or Andy Reid reverts to a committee.

Davis Mattek explained that if you spend early draft capital on an older tight end such as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or even Zach Ertz, you should automatically turn it into a three-tight-end build by grabbing two of the many rookie flyers available in the final rounds. Mattek pointed to Mason Taylor, Jatavian Sanders, and Elijah Arroyo (with even deeper shots like Arande Gadsden or Harold Fannin) as low-cost hedges. His reasoning: veteran TEs carry heightened injury and efficiency risk with age, while rookies usually start slow but can erupt in the back half of the season when Underdog playoff weeks kick in. Because there are so many cheap rookie darts, the opportunity cost is minimal—especially compared to burning an 18th-round pick on a third quarterback unless an outlier like Anthony Richardson falls. The veteran-plus-rookie combo protects your early investment and still offers the late-season spike weeks that decide best-ball tournaments.

Davis Mattek endorsed Isiah Pacheco as the cleanest Round-6/7 swing at RB, stressing that his situation is essentially unchanged from 2023 when he cost a third-round pick. Kansas City has only added Elijah Mitchell (just $1.1M guaranteed) and Kareem Hunt ($1.5M) plus a seventh-round flyer on Bershard Smith, none of whom project to siphon early-down work. Mattek expects Pacheco to reprise his 60-65% rushing share and goal-line role behind one of the league’s best offensive lines while benefiting from Patrick Mahomes-led scoring equity. He compared the Chief back directly to Joe Mixon—similar touch projections but with a far better quarterback and blocking environment—concluding Pacheco is the superior value for Best-Ball drafters hunting a second back in Hero RB builds.

Kelley Bydlon advised passing on Patrick Mahomes at 12-to-1 to lead the NFL in touchdown passes. Bydlon thinks the price fails to account for the current depth of elite passers—Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Josh Allen and others—who could all eclipse 40 scores. He would need 40-to-1 before considering a sprinkle, arguing that Mahomes’ edge over the field has narrowed as Kansas City leans more on its defense and ground game.

Whalen called Isiah Pacheco a riser who belongs in Tier 4 and could creep into the RB1 conversation. Kansas City has “no obvious number two,” and Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s contract void leaves only late-round flyers behind Pacheco. With Patrick Mahomes still finishing drives, Whalen anticipates another double-digit touchdown season and career-high snap share, making Pacheco a value before his ADP fully adjusts.

Rich Hribar said gamers are over-penalizing Rashee Rice for his likely 3- or 4-game suspension. Even after trimming Rice’s target share to account for early rust and a larger slice for rookie Xavier Worthy, Hribar’s median projection still spits out the Chiefs sophomore as the WR15 for the full season. He reminded listeners that replacement value matters—those first few weeks you will slot in another receiver rather than take a zero. Hribar cited historical comps: Julian Edelman in 2018 (fell to WR30 ADP, returned as the WR12 in points per game) and Steve Smith’s two-game ban in 2017, both of which paid off handsomely once they were back. Unless the NFL drops a six-plus-game hammer, Hribar will keep Rice in the late-third/early-fourth-round "fulcrum" alongside Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson, and he’s "smashing" every Round-5 slide in Best Ball or season-long drafts.

Jeff Mueller explained that Rashee Rice’s season-ending injury was an LCL tear paired with a surgically repaired hamstring rupture—serious on paper but far less worrisome after seeing Rice’s March–April workout clips showing full-speed change of direction and deceleration. Rice avoided the preseason PUP list and, per Andy Reid, will reclaim his high target-per-route slot role alongside Xavier Worthy once active. While legal analysts and Chiefs beat reporters project only a 2–4-game suspension, Rice’s ADP has fallen to Round 5. Mueller is aggressively drafting him there, projecting low early-season opportunity cost (replacement points fill the gap) and WR2 production over Weeks 5-17 thanks to Kansas City’s pass-heavy scheme and Rice’s 2023 efficiency (top-12 yards per route run).