Raybon warned that Isiah Pacheco is skating on thin ice despite his current ADP. The former seventh-rounder mustered just 3.6 yards per carry in 2023, was a near non-factor as a receiver and struggled at the goal line, issues that allowed journeyman Kareem Hunt—averaging only 4.0 YPC since 2021—to outplay him down the stretch. Raybon noted Kansas City spent another seventh-round pick on 4.39-speed rookie Bershard Smith (1,650 yards, 18 TDs at SMU) and is bringing in veterans Elijah Mitchell and even fullback/special-teamer Carson Steele for carries. Because the Chiefs showed no hesitation moving on from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Raybon sees Pacheco’s draft status offering little job security and expects the backfield to morph into a committee—or even flip to Smith—well before fantasy playoffs. He advised best-ball and redraft managers to ship Pacheco now, before camp hype exposes the fragility of his role.

Steve Palazzolo cautioned managers to temper statistical expectations for Patrick Mahomes in 2024. Citing PFF grades, EPA, QBR and other metrics, Palazzolo said Mahomes has ranked only QB5–QB8 over the past two seasons and is intentionally morphing into a more ball-control passer because the Chiefs no longer boast Tyreek Hill-level field-stretchers. He emphasized Kansas City’s offense now leans on protecting the football and sustained drives, a shift that caps raw fantasy output even though Mahomes remains unrivaled in late-game heroics. Palazzolo’s actionable advice: in redraft and DFS, value Mahomes closer to the 5–7 range rather than automatic QB1; consider the UNDER on season-long passing-yard props; but still trust him in clutch-driven markets such as fourth-quarter comeback props or Chiefs futures because his "when you need a drive" excellence is unchanged.

Steve Palazzolo argued that Patrick Mahomes still deserves QB1 consideration despite a statistical dip the last two years. He acknowledged the Chiefs star has graded only as a fringe top-10 passer on a throw-for-throw basis (roughly QB8-QB10) since 2022, yet emphasized Mahomes’ unmatched full body of work, late-game "magic," and ability to adapt to personnel changes – winning a Super Bowl and an MVP after Tyreek Hill left. Palazzolo believes that resilience means Mahomes reliably elevates a middling supporting cast, keeping Kansas City in title contention. For fantasy and futures betting, he recommends trusting Mahomes’ proven combination of weekly floor and nuclear ceiling over the newer flash of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson.

Steph Miller said she is more comfortable clicking Isiah Pacheco in the late-fourth/early-fifth round now that Kansas City refused to spend real draft capital at running back. The Chiefs waited until the final rounds to add only a depth piece (Rashard Smith), a move Steph read as a loud vote of confidence in Pacheco’s three-down profile. She reminded listeners that recency bias from his February shoulder surgery temporarily pushed his ADP into the 70s, but the role never disappeared—Pacheco accounted for 72% of Kansas City’s red-zone carries after Week 10 last year and averaged 19.4 opportunities in games where he topped 50% snaps. Without meaningful competition and with Patrick Mahomes still forcing light boxes (league-leading 6.3 defenders in the box per Sports Info Solutions), Steph views Pacheco as a rare back who can deliver both floor and spike weeks on a Super Bowl favorite. She is actively scooping him any time he drifts past pick 50 in Best Ball Mania 6 drafts.

Evan Abrams urged bettors to lean on Kansas City early in the season, highlighting Andy Reid’s 22-4 straight-up record in September since 2017 and Patrick Mahomes’s identical scorching starts. With a record eight prime-time games and marquee openers against Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Detroit, Abrams expects the public to overreact game-to-game, creating plus-EV moneyline spots if KC opens as short favorites or small dogs. He reminded listeners that Reid-era Chiefs are 10-2 to the season-win OVER overall, largely because they bank wins in the first month before injuries hit and the schedule softens. Abrams’ tactical advice: attack Week 1-4 moneylines and first-half spreads, then reevaluate once the market catches up to Kansas City’s annual September surge.

Chris Raybon said he would only play Kansas City’s win-total UNDER at the current 11.5 because the roster has more soft spots than usual. He flagged a rebuilt offensive line that still needs JC Latham or Kingsley Suamataia to win starting jobs and push the penalty-plagued Jawaan Taylor to swing tackle. He also noted the lack of a proven early-down back—Elijah Mitchell and UDFA Treshawn Ward are competing behind Isiah Pacheco—which could leave the offense one-dimensional. Raybon expects the Chiefs to stumble out of the gate thanks to a brutal first nine weeks (home vs. Eagles, Ravens, Lions, Commanders; road at Bills; neutral-site game vs. Chargers in Brazil). His plan is to pass on the current Super Bowl number and buy in once those early losses fatten the price, a strategy he is already employing with smaller pre-season wagers on Buffalo and Baltimore.

Rich Cooling said second-tier contenders should kick the tires on Rashee Rice because his current dynasty price bakes in every bit of off-field and usage risk but almost none of the ceiling. Rice’s value has been "depleted" after the offseason headlines and uncertainty about how Kansas City will spread targets, yet Cooling reminded listeners the wideout already produced WR1 stretches as a rookie and would vault into the top-five conversation if he captures Patrick Mahomes’ undisputed WR1 role. For rosters that are one tier below the true juggernauts, Cooling argued the asymmetric payoff—top-five upside at a mid-WR3 acquisition cost—is worth embracing the suspension or volatility risk.

Steve Palazzolo argued that Kansas City’s early two-year, $15 million deal for Jalen Moore combined with drafting Josh Simmons at 32 overall finally stabilizes the Chiefs’ only recurring weakness—left-tackle depth. He pointed out that every recent dip in the offense’s efficiency has coincided with backup tackles being forced into action, but Moore provides an above-average stopgap while Simmons offers long-term upside. With sturdier edges, Palazzolo expects Andy Reid to call more long-developing vertical concepts, historically Mahomes’ most efficient throw type. He recommended grabbing Mahomes at +650 to win MVP and taking the over on 30.5 passing TDs before sportsbooks adjust to Kansas City’s improved protection.

Sam Monson said the Chiefs getting Hollywood Brown back on a cheap one-year deal was a "big win" and expects Kansas City to double-down on the vertical-speed plan they abandoned last year when Brown and Rashee Rice went down. He reminded listeners that Patrick Mahomes posted the league’s worst passer rating on 20-plus-yard throws in 2022, which sparked the front office to add pure burners Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy. With all three wideouts headed for a full offseason program, Monson anticipates Andy Reid calling more deep-shot concepts, giving Brown weekly splash-play upside and making him a late-round best-ball target and an early-season DFS tournament dart while salaries remain depressed.

Matthew Wiley reiterated his long-standing love for Isiah Pacheco, immediately shouting "RB1, RB1" after JSU read Andy Reid’s offseason quote that the back has "put on weight and looks really healthy." Wiley said that single endorsement is all he needs to bet on Pacheco to finish as the overall RB1 in Best Ball. With no established competition for touches in Kansas City and the Chiefs’ offense habitually living in the red zone, Wiley is jamming Pacheco ahead of ADP and building lineups around a breakout, workhorse season.

JSU explained why he is passing on Travis Kelce at his still-hefty ADP. Once Rashee Rice became a full-time player, many of the short and intermediate targets that used to belong to Kelce flowed to Rice, capping Kelce’s weekly ceiling. Combine that target squeeze with the reality that Kelce is deep into his career mileage, and JSU does not see enough separation between Kelce and the next tier of tight ends to spend a premium pick. In his view, waiting on tight end and chasing spike weeks later in drafts is the sharper Best Ball approach for 2025.

Jason Moore snapped up Travis Kelce at the 9-10 turn, calling it an easy choice over Evan Engram. Moore admitted he is projecting Kelce to "lose a lot this year" to other Chiefs pass catchers, yet he still prefers the future Hall of Famer because even a reduced share keeps him in the weekly difference-maker tier. By waiting until Round 9 to address tight end and still landing Kelce, Moore believes drafters can avoid the touchdown-or-bust mid-tier while preserving earlier picks for premium positions.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is still drafting Rashee Rice despite news of a third civil suit stemming from the Dallas freeway crash. Pat expects the case to crawl through the courts—he noted that "any criminal cases take a long time" and predicted Rice’s lawyers will push hearings deep into 2025. Because the league typically waits for legal resolution before handing down discipline, Pat doubts a 2024 suspension materializes. He even joked that "they all get off in KC," underscoring his confidence in a lenient outcome. Pat hopes nervous drafters shave a few ADP spots off Rice, but stressed that managers should keep clicking him at cost, treating any dip as found equity in best-ball rooms that reward regular-season ceiling games.

Davis Mattek said drafters should not assume Rashee Rice will automatically reprise his 2023 role because Xavier Worthy could flip the script. Mattek noted Worthy handled plenty of the Chiefs’ manufactured-touch work after Rice was hurt, and the rookie’s late-season tape showed a big step forward in route nuance and contested-catch ability. If Worthy keeps developing, Mattek believes he can blend the short-area screens Rice thrived on with true field-stretching posts and corners—an efficiency profile similar to Nico Collins and Brandon Aiyuk’s 2023 breakouts. Mattek conceded Rice will likely lead the team in raw targets, but emphasized Worthy’s higher average depth of target and attached Mahomes efficiency give him a real chance to outscore Rice in best-ball formats at a much friendlier ADP.

Andy Holloway labeled Rashee Rice a pure wild card and said he will not pay the current fourth-round price tag. Rice’s celebrated late-season surge lasted only three games before his knee injury, yet that tiny sample has him going ahead of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in many drafts. Holloway pointed out that 68 % of Rice’s rookie receiving yards came after the catch, a rate he attributes to soft single coverage while defenses bracketed Travis Kelce. With Kelce turning 36 and losing a step, Holloway anticipates different coverage shells and fewer free slant windows. He also flagged Rice’s ongoing six-to-nine-month knee rehab, noting that lost offseason reps often stunt year-two development as a route runner. The Chiefs invested a first-round pick in Worthy and signed Brown, both of whom threaten target share. Holloway pegs Rice’s ceiling around WR7-8 if everything breaks perfectly with Patrick Mahomes, but his projected floor sits outside the top-24. He prefers Worthy at cost and will only take Rice if he slips into Round 6 of best-ball or traditional drafts.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told viewers to scoop Isiah Pacheco before the market wakes up. He pushed back on the narrative that Pacheco "looked bad" late in 2023, noting the second-year runner was still shaking off multiple offseason surgeries when he returned and admittedly needed a few weeks to regain burst. Pat argued drafters ignoring that context—and pointing to Kareem Hunt out-snapping him—are going to feel "pretty silly in a couple months" once a fully healthy Pacheco shows his normal explosiveness in camp. With Kansas City declining to add meaningful backfield competition and Pacheco already locked into red-zone work on the league’s premier offense, Pat expects his ADP to climb at least a full round by August.

Ian Hartitz said drafting Kareem Hunt in round 17 of Best-Ball Mania is an easy lottery ticket because there’s a realistic shot—he put the odds at 30 percent—that Hunt beats out Isiah Pacheco for the Chiefs starting job. Hartitz pointed to Kansas City’s prior familiarity with Hunt from his 2017–18 Pro Bowl seasons and noted that Pacheco is still rehabbing tight-rope ankle surgery, a procedure that historically hampers backs for months. He added that Andy Reid has routinely shuffled backfield roles late in camp; if Hunt takes the first preseason series with Patrick Mahomes, his ADP could skyrocket into the Javonte Williams/Miles Sanders round-10 range. With drafters currently paying a seventh-round premium for Pacheco’s version of the same role, Hartitz views Hunt’s asymmetric upside as the perfect final-round swing in large-field best-ball tournaments.

Buck advised drafters to ignore fourth-round rookie Jalen Royals, predicting he will open 2024 as a weekly healthy scratch behind special-teams favorite Nico Remigio. Buck cited Andy Reid’s long track record of day-three receivers failing to earn offensive snaps—mentioning Skyy Moore’s stalled development and multiple early-round picks who never cracked the rotation—as evidence that draft capital still matters in Kansas City. He dismissed Chiefs personnel director Ryan Nutt’s comment that Royals shares a "similar skill set" with Rashee Rice as media fluff, not an actual playing-time signal. Buck concluded that any Rashee Rice injury or suspension would funnel targets to Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, not to Royals, making the rookie a wasted pick in best-ball drafts and a name to ignore on early waiver-wire watch lists.

Davis Mattek argued that Rashee Rice can post an Amon-Ra St. Brown style WR1 season even if the film crowd hates how it looks. He pulled up 2023 numbers that show Rice actually edged St. Brown in targets-per-route, matched him in target share when both were on the field, carried a slightly deeper average depth of target and produced comparable air-yard totals—all while receiving zero end-zone looks. Mattek’s thesis is that Andy Reid will, in his words, “spam what works,” meaning Rice’s underneath slant/option diet should remain Patrick Mahomes’ first read even once Travis Kelce and Marquise Brown return to full health. Mattek still has Rice as a heavy draft target in both best-ball and season-long formats until the market pushes him into the mid-second round, a point at which he would re-evaluate.

Buck pushed back on the idea that Patrick Mahomes is an automatic top-five fantasy quarterback, citing mounting off-field obligations that could dilute his preparation. He pointed to Mahomes’ new production company, nonstop commercial work and a family actively chasing reality-TV fame as distractions that simply did not exist during the QB’s early-career domination. Buck admitted the Chiefs’ offensive infrastructure is still elite but predicted that "mental bandwidth" issues keep Mahomes outside the top-eight fantasy QBs unless rookie left tackle Josh Simmons immediately grades as a top-10 pass-blocker. With Mahomes going several rounds ahead of quarterbacks who project similarly in raw points, Buck advised passing on him in both season-long drafts and best-ball tournaments unless his ADP slides into double-digit rounds.

Buck called Xavier Worthy the cheapest way to buy into a potential Chiefs passing rebound and urged drafters to take him any time he slips past the 3/4 turn. Buck rattled off Worthy’s rookie production – 59-638-6 receiving, 20-104-3 rushing – plus two separate 11-target games and three postseason touchdowns, including two in the Super Bowl. After Week 7 Kansas City shortened Worthy’s average depth of target and pushed his slot rate above 60%, a role shift Buck believes turned him into a genuine target earner rather than a pure field-stretcher. PFF agrees: Worthy posted several 80-plus receiving grades and a season-best 92.4 mark in the AFC Championship win over Buffalo while playing mostly outside. Buck likes that year-one growth curve, notes Worthy is still several rounds cheaper than Rashee Rice, and sees a clear path to 115-plus targets if Rice’s legal or injury issues linger. He tagged Worthy a priority pick in both best-ball and redraft formats.

Davis Mattek labeled Patrick Mahomes the best bet in fantasy to erupt for a 400-point season after back-to-back "down" years of 293 points. He referenced Mike Clay’s conservative 4,300-30-289 projection but argued Mahomes’ ceiling climbs dramatically if rookie LT Josh Simmons merely grades as a top-10 pass-blocker. Mattek’s thesis: no other QB combines Mahomes’ track record, play-calling infrastructure, and upside path, making him undervalued at his current ADP in both season-long and best-ball drafts.

Davis Mattek urged drafters to scoop up Rashee Rice while legal and injury uncertainty still prices him in the late-third. Mattek expects Rice’s ADP to rocket into the mid-second once the LCL rehab looks normal and the NFL clarifies discipline (or lack thereof). He cited Andy Reid’s history of "spamming what works" and pointed to Mike Clay’s 14-game projection of 112 targets, 84-946-6 receiving despite only 30 projected Chiefs passing TDs. Mattek noted Rice would leapfrog names like Drake London and Tee Higgins once the market gains clarity, giving drafters a rare pre-camp discount on Kansas City’s clear No. 1 wideout in both best-ball and redraft.

Buck warned against taking Rashee Rice at his current ADP near the 2-3 turn (around pick 30). He argued Rice’s early-2024 target spike was a mirage created by a "broken" Chiefs offense that had Travis Kelce and Hollywood Brown sidelined and Isaiah Pacheco hurt, forcing Kansas City to use Rice as an extension of the run game. With Kelce and Brown healthy and the Chiefs determined to re-establish the ground attack, Buck expects Rice’s target share to fall. He added that Rice still runs a limited slant/option-heavy route tree, is rehabbing an LCL tear, and faces a possible league suspension. Given those layered risks, Buck believes Rice offers more downside than upside at a second-round price and prefers fading him in both best-ball and season-long formats.

Jason La Confora went over 11.5 wins, citing the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era record: Kansas City has topped its season win total in six of seven seasons and hit 11 in the lone miss. He likes that the AFC West is stronger, believing a live division race will keep the Chiefs playing starters deep into December. Confora added that many of Kansas City’s toughest opponents come at Arrowhead, the offensive line will be improved, and a heavier run game gives them another path to victory. With Reid’s decade-long 70% win rate and Mahomes healthy, he refuses to fade the Chiefs’ regular-season dominance.

Danny Brasco preferred the over on 11.5 wins despite acknowledging the Chiefs’ narrow escapes last year. He reminded listeners that Kansas City still went 15-2 while missing Rashee Rice early, losing Isaiah Pacheco to injury and getting a down season from Travis Kelce. Andy Reid’s track record of finding answers convinces Brasco the Chiefs survive a front-loaded slate and feast late; their final four games—Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders—are all winnable. He doubts Denver’s offense with rookie QB Bo Nix and sees the Broncos’ thin WR group and Chargers’ rebuild as reasons Kansas City can still bully the division. Brasco projects a tightrope season but expects the twelfth win to cash the over.

Larry Harstein leaned to the under on Kansas City’s 11.5-win total at –118. He pointed out the Chiefs were a perfect 11-0 in one-score games last season, a number he views as unsustainable. Kansas City faces the league’s sixth-toughest schedule, opening with the Chargers, Ravens, Eagles and Lions and playing five prime-time games in their first eight contests. Harstein noted divisional improvement—Las Vegas now has a competent QB/HC combo, while Denver and the Chargers are on the rise—and flagged the loss of All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, leaving a rookie coming off injury to protect Patrick Mahomes. Even with Rashee Rice returning, Harstein expects some natural regression and prefers the under 11.5 wins.

Davis Mattek said Rashee Rice is still worth an aggressive reach, taking him at pick 21 and calling him “live to be a 1-2 turn pick.” Mattek reminded listeners that Rice averaged 21.5 fantasy points per game before Patrick Mahomes hurt his knee last year and believes the market over-reacted to both the injury fallout and Rice’s offseason legal trouble. Team reports suggest Rice is fully healthy and any court-related suspension is unlikely to hit until 2025, meaning drafters get a full season of top-end production in 2024 at a two-round discount. Mattek framed Rice as one of his favorite “get your guys” selections in Best Ball drafts.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said grabbing Isiah Pacheco around pick 96 is “probably pretty smart.” He acknowledged that Kansas City plans to roll out a four-back rotation this season but argued the market has already baked that risk into Pacheco’s sliding Underdog price. Pat reminded viewers the Chiefs still finished top-8 in points per drive last year and project for multiple dome or mild-weather games in the fantasy playoffs. At a full round discount from his early-April ADP, Pacheco gives drafters inexpensive exposure to Patrick Mahomes’ red-zone snaps while preserving roster flexibility for hero-RB or zero-RB builds. Pat’s bottom line: treat the committee chatter as noise and continue smashing any Pacheco slips into the mid-90s.

Tyler Sullivan called Rashee Rice his favorite Comeback Player of the Year bet at 10-to-1. Even with Kansas City able to ease Rice in behind Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce, Sullivan stressed that Rice already earned Patrick Mahomes’ trust as a rookie. In his three full games last season, Rice topped 100 yards twice; extrapolated over 17 games that pace equals 136 receptions, 1,600 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Sullivan believes a late-season surge is likely once Rice is fully healthy, turning the Chiefs back into a top-flight passing attack for both bettors holding award tickets and fantasy managers seeking second-half league-winning upside.

Davis Mattek explained why he pivoted to Brashard Smith instead of taking a 10th wide receiver in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania. Mattek said Rich Rebar ‘gave him permission’ to start clicking Smith and that the rookie handcuff offers a much higher payoff than the dusty WRs left on the board. His logic: 28-year-old Joe Mixon is an obvious injury candidate, and there is a non-zero chance second-year Chase Brown simply face-plants. If either scenario hits, Smith could suddenly step into a touchdown-rich workload in half-PPR scoring—upside you will never get from a waiver-wire tier wideout. Mattek urged drafters to sprinkle Smith into their hyper-fragile builds as an inexpensive out that can tilt playoff weeks.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he "doesn’t love Worthy in this contest" because the rookie’s weekly floor is "super freaking low." He worries the undersized first-rounder will open the season in a rotational down-field role that produces boom-or-bust stat lines—exactly the kind of volatility that gets Eliminator entries bounced in early multi-team cuts. Pat prefers veterans like Keenan Allen who can deliver steady 6-8 catch games in September rather than hope Worthy’s splash plays align with head-to-head matchups. Until Worthy shows he can handle a full route load in Kansas City, Pat is fading him at current ADP in favor of receivers with bankable targets.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised pouncing on Rashee Rice at his current late-third ADP while legal and injury headlines trend favorably. Pat noted Rice is already inching toward the 2/3 turn after opening in the 40s and believes clean camp reports could push him firmly into the second round. He downplayed offseason legal worries—‘I do not grind the law stuff’—and pointed to practice-field clips showing full-speed cutting as evidence the toe issue is behind him. With Patrick Mahomes still lacking an alpha wideout and Kansas City’s coaching staff publicly reiterating Rice’s WR1 path, Pat framed the pick as classic closing-line value: draft now before the market corrects.

Davis Mattek told listeners he is happily burning an 18th-round pick on whoever winds up second on the Chiefs’ running-back depth chart, singling out Elijah Mitchell as the most likely winner if the season started today. Mattek reminded everyone that Isiah Pacheco is still recovering from a broken leg he rushed back from in 2024 and that Kansas City has no allegiance to him if a ‘hot hand’ emerges. He rattled off the candidates—Mitchell, Breschard Smith, Kareem Hunt, Deneric Prince and even Darwin Thompson—and said the only reason they are free is pure market uncertainty. In his view, if Hunt had not re-signed, Mitchell’s ADP would already sit in the Trey Benson/Isaac Guerendo tier several rounds earlier. Pacheco’s pedestrian efficiency (4.3 YPC, RB33 in elusive-rating) plus Andy Reid’s willingness to ride a back who flashes means the true RB2 could see 20 touches in any given week or inherit the job outright if Pacheco aggravates the leg. Until beat writers give clarity, Mattek is scooping Chiefs RB2 darts everywhere in Best Ball.

Davis Mattek conceded Travis Kelce looked "actively bad" in 2024 but argued he remains a smash at his round-9 TE7 ADP. Even in a down year Kelce posted 97 receptions and cleared 110 targets for the ninth straight season. Mattek noted Kansas City slipped to 13th in yards per play—their worst finish of the Mahomes era—yet Kelce still produced two nuclear weeks (top-3 among tight ends). He expects the offense to rebound simply by regressing toward its six-year baseline, citing year-2 jumps from Rashee Rice, first-rounder Xavier Worthy, and a healthier Marquise Brown to lift overall efficiency and red-zone chances. In that scenario Kelce does not have to carry the unit; eight touchdowns on his usual volume would likely land him inside the top-4 tight ends. Mattek is happy to “just lock up 110 targets” at a draft cost that once bought Gerald Everett.

Davis Mattek said Rashee Rice is a slam-dunk Round-3 buy because the two things scaring drafters—his knee and the Dallas street-racing case—look overblown. Public medical reports say Rice would be healthy enough to play today, and attorney Drew Davenport noted the criminal charge is not even on a docket while the civil trial set for June will almost certainly get pushed. Mattek expects any NFL suspension to be short, reminding best-ball managers that Week 17 exposure matters more than September snaps. He pointed to Rice’s outrageous late-season usage: over the final three games he averaged 21.5 fantasy points, trailed only Puka Nacua in rookie yards-per-route-run, and earned targets at a Drake London–level clip while sharing the field with Xavier Worthy. Playing every playoff week with Patrick Mahomes, Rice carries true league-winning upside, and Mattek called him the easiest third-round click on the board.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound argued that Travis Kelce’s four red-zone touchdowns in 2023 are guaranteed to regress upward. Even if Rashee Rice is fully healthy and the Chiefs add another wideout, Pat emphasized that Andy Reid’s offense still produces double-digit red-zone targets for Kelce every year; last season’s 4-TD outlier came on 13 red-zone catches. With Patrick Mahomes still top-three in red-zone pass attempts and Kansas City declining to add a true goal-line back, Pat expects Kelce to finish with at least 7–9 scores, making him a value any time he falls to the late-second/early-third round of Best Ball Mania drafts.

Sean Koerner continues to fade Isiah Pacheco, ranking him RB42 versus an RB33 price on Underdog. Pacheco’s yards per touch have slipped three straight seasons (5.2 → 4.7 → 4.1), and the Chiefs clearly noticed, re-signing Kareem Hunt, acquiring Elijah Mitchell and drafting SMU workhorse Richard Smith. Koerner warned that late-round picks like Pacheco (7th-round) often regress once the team brings in legitimate competition, citing the Clyde Edwards-Helaire precedent. With a realistic committee forming and no guarantee of goal-line exclusivity, Koerner projects only 10–12 touches per game and sees more downside than upside at current cost, preferring higher-ceiling backs in the same range.

Davis Mattek called grabbing Patrick Mahomes before ADP “terrible” roster construction in 2024 best-ball rooms. Mahomes no longer provides the rushing yardage that props up Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson, and his median projection has slipped because Andy Reid slowed the Chiefs’ pace to 30th in neutral-situation plays last season. Even if Mahomes returns to a 40-TD ceiling, Mattek believes those blow-up games are harder to access unless Kansas City embraces rookie burner Xavier Worthy and speeds up again—an outcome that directly caps Rashee Rice’s volume. With comparable pocket passers like Joe Burrow and Jordan Love going multiple rounds later, Mattek prefers waiting and using the premium pick on scarce wide-receiver upside rather than betting Mahomes beats the Allen/Hurts tier without the rushing safety net.

Davis Mattek said he is intentionally underweight on Travis Kelce even though he keeps the veteran tight end right at consensus ADP in his published ranks. Mattek joked that drafting a soon-to-be 35-year-old and hoping he "punishes" the field is a thin bet when Kansas City just added Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice is healthy, and rookie burner Xavier Worthy is demanding targets. After watching the Chiefs rotate three tight ends and six wide receivers the past two seasons, Mattek doubts Kelce can recapture the 25-plus-percent target share that propped up his early-round price. Without that massive volume—and with age-related decline already showing in his yards-after-catch numbers—Mattek prefers to pass on Kelce in favor of young wideouts or elite upside running backs at the same draft slot, limiting his exposure to occasional stacks only.

Davis Mattek urged listeners to scoop Xavier Worthy in Underdog’s Eliminator contest where he regularly drifts into the 5th round. Mattek argued the public is mis-casting Worthy as a pure down-field gadget player when Kansas City actually funneled him short and intermediate targets late last season, slashing his aDOT and giving him a bankable weekly floor. In the playoffs Worthy posted multiple spike weeks while sharing the field with a hobbled Marquise Brown, Justin Watson and an aging Travis Kelce, showing he can command volume when needed. Mattek said Worthy’s ceiling comp is "Tyreek if everything hits," yet drafters are treating him like a boom-bust WR4. He is grabbing every sub-ADP share because once best-ball rooms realize Worthy’s target profile is safer than advertised, Mattek expects his price to settle in the late-third/early-fourth, well above today’s Eliminator discount.

Sam Monson argued that seventh-rounder Brashard Smith could become much more than a gadget back for Kansas City. The former SMU wide receiver has only one collegiate season at running back but already flashes every-down traits: soft natural hands, 4.38-speed verified at his pro day, and the lateral quickness to exploit Andy Reid’s jet-sweep and misdirection packages. Monson noted film where the 195-pound Smith lowered his pads and ran over a 235-pound Duke linebacker, evidence that he can finish inside rather than just bounce plays outside. With Isaiah Pacheco entering year three and Kansas City lacking a true passing-down specialist, Monson sees Smith carving out a third-down role early with room to grow into 30–40% snap share if injuries strike. Deep-league season-long managers and best-ball players should take free-square exposure now before preseason hype builds.

Jason Moore told listeners not to overthink Rashee Rice’s legal situation and scoop him up as a rock-solid WR2. Moore is "very much not at all nervous" about Rice’s role when he is on the field, noting that league insiders believe a suspension could be pushed to 2026. Rice commanded a 25 % target share over his final ten healthy games, routinely operating in Kelce’s short-to-intermediate sweet spot. Moore projects a similar share even after the arrivals of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown because Rice is simply better at the underneath YAC game the Chiefs lean on. If Rice plays 17 games, Moore’s stat line is 92-1,105-8, which would have landed as WR19 last season. Current ADPs in the mid-30s at the position give drafters multiple rounds of profit potential in season-long and best-ball formats.

Mike Wright warned drafters that 2025 is the cliff year for Travis Kelce. Wright’s early projections give Kelce just a 15 % target share—down from 26 % last year and a career-low for the 35-year-old tight end. He pointed to the first three weeks of 2024, when Kelce dipped to 14 % while Rashee Rice sucked up the middle-of-the-field looks that have always fueled Kelce’s fantasy supremacy. With Xavier Worthy’s 4.21 speed stretching defenses vertically and Marquise Brown healthy, Wright doubts Patrick Mahomes can feed four mouths on an offense that failed to crack 4,000 passing yards. Age-related efficiency decline, plus fewer red-zone looks as Kansas City shifts to a deeper passing tree, make Kelce a risky second-round pick in season-long drafts. Wright advised treating him as a back-end TE1, not the automatic positional cheat code of years past.

Sam Monson said fourth-round pick Jalen Royals is ‘one of my favorite wide receivers in this draft’ and called the selection ‘insane value.’ Monson highlighted Royals’ Senior Bowl reps where the Utah State product consistently won with nuanced route timing, strong body control, and elite after-catch burst. Although Royals does not create five-yard gaps, Monson stressed that he gains leverage early, shields the defender, and maintains positioning— the kind of functional NFL separation that translates right away. Royals averaged 7.3 yards after the catch last season in Utah State’s tempo offense and tallied a 34% dominator rating despite quirky scheme usage. Monson believes that, in Kansas City’s receiver room currently headlined by Rashee Rice, Royals has a clear path to the WR3/WR4 role, offering Patrick Mahomes another dependable intermediate target. Dynasty managers and best-ball drafters should circle Royals as a cheap stash who could spike in value by mid-season if injuries or Rice’s legal situation thin the depth chart.

Andy Holloway slotted Patrick Mahomes closer to QB10 than QB5, even ranking him behind rookie Bo Nix in initial projections. Mahomes finished just QB11 last season and failed to reach 4,000 yards for the first time in his career. Holloway expects only a modest bounce to roughly 4,050 yards and 28–30 TDs, which cannot keep pace with the dual-threat ceilings of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson. While Kansas City added field-stretchers Worthy and Hollywood Brown, Holloway doubts the team’s philosophy will suddenly turn pass-happy after last year’s defensive-leaning success. With Mahomes offering only 250 rushing yards and five rushing TD upside, Holloway advised passing on his late-fourth/early-fifth ADP in single-QB leagues and targeting cheaper upside options like Jordan Love or Anthony Richardson instead.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound advised drafters to keep taking Rashee Rice a few spots ahead of his current ADP because he anticipates steady upward movement once the market accepts that Rice is unlikely to miss 2024 games. Pat cited reports that the next court date has been pushed to November and expects further delays, giving Rice a clear path to be on the field all season. He reminded the chat that Rice posted a 20% targets-per-route rate and led Kansas City in red-zone targets from Week 10 on as a rookie. In a Chiefs offense still searching for a true WR1 behind Travis Kelce, Pat believes Rice’s ceiling is nowhere near priced in and is aggressively building exposure before the ADP spike hits.

Pat Kerrane said the market is over-reacting to Travis Kelce’s age and treating him like a brittle asset when a 10th-round ADP already bakes in that risk. Kelce still averaged 12.3 PPR points last season and ripped off four separate 20-plus outings, including 22 in Week 17. Kerrane compared him to late-career Rob Gronkowski and Tony Gonzalez— both of whom produced TE1 numbers well into their mid-30s— and noted that very few tight ends can realistically post those spike weeks. If Kelce merely delivers 80 percent of last year’s production he pays off the tag, and any bump in red-zone looks from a more efficient Chiefs passing attack (thanks to rookie burner Xavier Worthy) puts another 4–5 touchdown ceiling back on the table. In Best Ball Mania rooms where positional scarcity is amplified, Kerrane is happily scooping Kelce as a cheap path to elite tight-end scoring.

Pete Overzet pointed out that Travis Kelce’s sixth-round price on FFPC (ADP 74) is virtually identical to his DraftKings tag despite the 1.5-PPR premium, calling it a no-brainer opportunity. Overzet acknowledged the 35-year-old looked sluggish early last season, yet Kelce still finished first among tight ends in targets per route (0.28) and erupted for two 100-yard, multi-TD games during the playoff push. With Rashee Rice facing a suspension and the Chiefs failing to add real target competition, Overzet expects Patrick Mahomes to keep funneling high-leverage looks to his security blanket. Grabbing Kelce there secures weekly TE1 advantage without sacrificing early draft capital needed for wide receivers.