La Canfora wagered +600 that Miami’s first 2025 pick will be a safety, noting the betting markets are mis‑pricing the entire position group. He has already sprinkled on Nick Emmanwori as both a top‑10 selection and first DB off the board. Several teams drafting in the teens, including the Dolphins, are secretly leaning toward secondary help even though mocks tie them to the trenches. Miami routinely de‑prioritizes offensive linemen and believes it can find blockers later. Coaches witnessed the huge swing Jevon Holland makes when healthy and see a rangy safety as essential to competing in the AFC arms race, making this prop worth the juice.

Ryan Noonan recommended betting Miami to open its draft with a cornerback at +210 on FanDuel. He noted the Dolphins have not won a playoff game in 24 years and enter the draft with a paper‑thin secondary: 30‑year‑old Jalen Ramsey is the lone proven starter, Storm Duck is penciled in for meaningful snaps, and 2023 second‑rounder Cam Smith has yet to earn the staff’s trust. Noonan said pick 21 could be the floor for either Will Johnson—whose middling testing could trigger a mini‑slide—or versatile Jaden Barron, who can moonlight at safety or nickel. While offensive line remains a need, Miami quietly prepared for Terron Armstead’s retirement by drafting Patrick Paul and signing James Daniels, making corner the more urgent hole. With two realistic CB targets and the market still pricing edge rusher and O‑line as co‑favorites, Noonan believes the +210 offers solid value in an information‑driven market.

Ben Standig sent Michigan corner Will Johnson to Miami at Pick 13, noting the looming Jalen Ramsey trade makes perimeter CB an urgent need. Johnson’s 6'2" frame, 33‑inch arms, and 18 passes defended in 20 collegiate starts put him behind only Travis Hunter on most boards. Although he skipped the 40, scouts clocked multiple in‑practice GPS readings over 21 mph, easing speed concerns. Vic Fangio’s single‑high scheme requires sticky man skills—and Johnson held opponents to a 44% completion rate on primary coverage snaps. Standig recommends betting Johnson as CB2 in exact‑order markets and upgrading Miami’s DST outlook in early season‑long drafts if this lands.

Jones has Miami snagging Oregon left tackle Josh Simmons at No. 13, banking on clean medicals from February surgery to repair a patellar issue rather than an ACL. Ryan Wilson noted teams view Simmons as a mid‑first talent when healthy—he allowed just one sack on 397 pass‑block snaps after transferring from San Diego State and pairs 35‑inch arms with elite 3‑cone agility. Mike McDaniel’s offense surrendered 63 QB hits in 2024, second‑most among playoff teams, and Terron Armstead’s age/health makes tackle the roster’s top priority. Jones expects Simmons to be fully cleared for training camp and suggested taking the under on his 18.5 draft slot before medical skepticism fades closer to April.

Evan Silva suggested grabbing Dolphins ‘First Pick—Wide Receiver’ at 14‑to‑1 as a contingent play on a potential Tyreek Hill trade. He believes both Hill and the organization are nearing a breakup, predicting Chris Grier could flip the 31‑year‑old back to Kansas City for a Day‑2 pick. In that scenario, Miami would have a glaring speed‑slot vacancy and could target Matthew Golden or Luther Burden with its first‑rounder. Silva acknowledged the bet hinges on the Hill move but argued the payoff outweighs the risk given the red flags around Hill (age, declining play, off‑field issues).

Andy Holloway warned managers not to expect a Tyreek Hill renaissance simply because he is two years removed from a WR1 overall season. Holloway hammered that Hill played all 17 games in 2024 yet averaged just 10.0 PPR points—WR35 on a per‑game basis, behind Adam Thielen—and logged a consistency grade of D with only 29.4 % of outings above 10.5 points. He dismissed the lingering wrist‑injury narrative, noting Hill’s snap share never dipped, and blamed Miami’s philosophical pivot toward short‑area targets for Jonnu Smith and the running backs. Citing how rare it is for receivers past age 30 to rebound after a full‑season drop‑off, Holloway said he is "out" at Hill’s current WR11/early‑second‑round price and would rather chase younger upside plays in both season‑long and best‑ball formats.

Jason Moore flagged Tyreek Hill as one of the biggest red‑flag picks inside the top‑12 wide‑receiver ADP. Moore’s own rank is WR15 after charting a massive efficiency collapse: Hill logged 906 snaps last year—211 more than 2023—but produced 840 fewer yards. He dealt with a season‑long wrist injury and ranked near the top of the league in drops, but Moore believes the larger issue was an offensive philosophy change. Miami stopped pushing the ball downfield, funneling short‑area targets to Jonnu Smith and the running backs, stripping Hill of his superpower of explosive plays (league‑leading 20‑plus‑yard reception rate prior to 2024). With no sign Mike McDaniel plans to revert and Hill entering age‑31 season, Moore warned that drafters are paying 2023 prices for a 2024 role, advising a fade in season‑long drafts unless his ADP slips two full rounds.

Andy Holloway slotted De'Von Achane at RB6 thanks to a league‑best 70 early‑down targets last season—more than Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall. With Tua Tagovailoa on the field Achane averaged 19.5 fantasy points and 6.5 targets per game; both figures cratered to 7.7 points and 2.2 targets in the six contests Tua missed. Holloway conceded Achane’s own durability concerns but trusts Mike McDaniel’s motion‑heavy scheme to keep Tagovailoa upright and manufacture high‑value touches. If the Dolphins avoid a quarterback catastrophe, Holloway projects another 90‑target, 1,600‑scrimmage‑yard campaign that justifies taking Achane in the back half of Round 1 for PPR and best‑ball leagues.

Jason Moore urged caution on drafting Tyreek Hill at his customary first‑round price. Hill logged hundreds more snaps last season yet produced barely half the yardage he posted in 2023, despite Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy for most of the year and Miami actually increasing total passing yards. Moore chalked the dip up to age‑related explosiveness loss and a route‑tree shift that pushed more targets underneath. Add in Hill turning 31 before Week 1 and the off‑field uncertainty from another domestic‑dispute report, and Moore slid the speedster down his preliminary wide‑receiver board. He still sees WR1 weeks in Hill’s range of outcomes but prefers younger, similarly priced options and labels Hill a potential overpay in season‑long drafts and best‑ball contests.