Sean Koerner pegged Jaylen Wright as a Round-15 lottery ticket with a clearer path than drafters realize. The 2023 fourth-rounder disappointed as a rookie—ending up in Mike McDaniel’s doghouse—but Koerner likened the potential second-year bounce to Tank Bigsby’s turnaround. Raheem Mostert is gone, leaving Wright as De’Von Achane’s primary backup in an offense that supported two fantasy-viable backs even when both were healthy. Koerner emphasized Miami’s wide zone scheme fits Wright’s blazing 4.38 speed and that Achane’s perfect health last year is unlikely to repeat; the average RB misses 2-3 games. In those weeks Wright could inherit 12-15 touches with multiple goal-line looks on one of the league’s highest-scoring attacks. Even without injury, McDaniel has shown willingness to rotate backs to maintain pace, giving Wright standalone best-ball value. Koerner sees him as the ideal late-round handcuff plus upside play for managers who faded running back early.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is actively boosting his De'Von Achane exposure now that the second-round price bakes in a full-workhorse projection. Pat expects Miami to hand Achane roughly 250-275 touches – nearly matching the 281 he logged last season – because the depth chart behind him is paper thin. Raheem Mostert is gone, rookie Ollie Gordon was a late-round flyer, and Alexander Mattison ("one of my least-favorite backs ever") is unlikely to siphon meaningful work. With Tyreek Hill nursing an injury and contract noise swirling around Jonnu Smith, Pat believes Mike McDaniel will lean on Achane’s pass-catching ability, creating a dump-off floor that insulates him from game script. If Achane stays healthy, Pat sees a clear path to an every-week RB1 who can bury underweight drafter portfolios, so he is happily clicking him near the 2/3 turn in Best Ball Mania 6 drafts.

Steph Miller said rostering both ancillary Miami running backs behind De'Von Achane can pay off because Achane’s slight frame (5'9", 188 lbs) and track-style usage raise legitimate durability concerns. Miami produced two top-18 weeks from multiple backs last season, and Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone scheme has finished top-five in EPA per rush since he arrived. If Achane misses time, Steph expects the backfield to consolidate around Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright, each capable of ripping long runs against the league’s light boxes that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle force. She views the double-tap as a low-cost Week 17 leverage play in BBM6 tournaments, especially because Miami closes the fantasy playoffs in a potential shootout against Kansas City.

Ben Stevens dismissed worries that Stefon Diggs’ viral "boat video" will affect the wideout’s production or availability with the Patriots. Diggs reported on time for mandatory mini-camp, addressed the incident privately with Mike Vrabel, and reiterated that there are no pending legal or league-discipline issues. Stevens called the response "wide-receiver-one behavior" and said he is "buying in on the Patriots" because Diggs immediately slots in as the unquestioned target alpha in an offense desperate for explosive plays. With no suspension threat and full participation in June practices, Stevens recommends treating Diggs as a locked-in WR2 with WR1 upside in fantasy drafts and sees New England’s longshot divisional odds as mildly appealing.

Ben Stevens advised fading Miami's win total, noting the number sits at 8.5 with the under heavily juiced to -175—an early-June signal the market already expects regression. Stevens pointed out that under Mike McDaniel the Dolphins are just 5-18 outright as underdogs across three seasons, a trend he sees persisting because they consistently beat bad teams but collapse versus playoff-caliber opponents. Contract disputes involving Jalen Ramsey and tight end Jonnu Smith, plus growing hot-seat pressure on McDaniel, add further volatility. Stevens also cited lingering concerns around Tua Tagovailoa’s durability after last year’s injury-marred finish. With a first-place schedule and dates against the entire AFC East, he projects a .500 ceiling and urged bettors to grab the under before the juice climbs or the line falls to 8.

Rich Cooling advised dynasty managers in the "good-but-not-great" tier to acquire Jaylen Waddle while the market fixates on his two down seasons. Cooling noted Waddle’s first two years were “mind-blowing,” and if the 100th-percentile outcome hits—Miami leans even harder into the pass or Tyreek Hill misses time—Waddle’s proven efficiency (back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, 25% target share as a rookie) gives him a realistic path to a top-five WR finish. Because those same managers are unlikely to outgun loaded rosters by playing it safe, Cooling framed Waddle as a discounted swing that can actually move the championship needle.

Rich Cooling highlighted Tyreek Hill as a rare opportunity to add elite production at a non-elite Dynasty price. Rookie fever has pushed Hill’s cost down to the point that some managers are willing to move him for a single future first plus a sweetener, despite the fact he just posted 1,799 yards and 12 TDs while leading the league in yards per route run (3.82). Cooling emphasized that nothing in Hill’s underlying profile suggests imminent decline—he is top-three in team target share (31%) and air-yard share (39%), and the Dolphins ranked first in neutral-situation pass EPA. He cautioned that this discount will evaporate once redraft season arrives and everyone realizes Hill is still a top-3 wideout in weekly rankings. Contenders should pounce now, locking in a 20-point-per-game WR1 without sacrificing a 2027 first-rounder.

Eric Polzin pegged rookie Jalen Wright as the direct contingency play for De'Von Achane and advised grabbing Wright in the final rounds. On film, Wright showed the same instant acceleration that made Achane a fantasy cheat code, and Miami reportedly asked him to add muscle this spring to handle short-yardage work. Polzin emphasized coach Mike McDaniel’s preference for a speed back in outside-zone concepts, calling Wright “Achane 2.0 minus the draft capital.” With rumors of a three-back rotation (Alexander Madison or Ollie Gordon siphoning goal-line snaps), Polzin still expects Wright to take the majority of base carries if Achane’s shoulder or knee flares up again. Achane missed or was limited in six games last year, and Miami backs averaged 24.6 PPR points in those contests. At a sub-200 ADP, Wright offers week-winning upside and lets drafters match, not pair, their Achane exposure in best-ball portfolios.

Eric Polzin said Malik Washington is the most logical handcuff to Tyreek Hill and should be scooped at his currently undrafted ADP in best-ball rooms. Polzin is worried about Hill’s mounting red flags— a lingering hand injury, back-to-back seasons with December bumps and bruises, and even public retirement chatter— plus the non-zero chance Miami deals him if contract talks sour. Washington played sparingly as a rookie, but Polzin noted his usage mirrors a “poor-man’s Tyreek”: manufactured touches (bubble screens, jet motion, end-arounds) and heavy pre-snap movement. He pointed to the late-season ramp-up— 38, 55, 50 and 41 snaps the final four weeks with target lines of 5-52, 3-28, 4-41, 4-48— as proof the coaching staff trusts him. If Tua stays healthy, or even with Zach Wilson holding the fort, Washington would step into a top-10 passing offense that funneled 198 targets to Hill/Waddle last year. At a near-pick-300 cost, Polzin views him as a no-risk, high-upside contingency bet for drafters loading up on Tyreek or simply hunting late spike weeks.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said De'Von Achane is the perfect second-round target in Underdog’s Superflex Greyhound contests once you have already locked up an elite quarterback. Because drafters must start two running backs every week and the Round-3 quarterback tier is “super flat” with names like Drake May, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff still on the board, Pat prefers to grab Achane at pick 20 instead of reaching for Justin Fields. The move lets you fill a scarce roster slot with a player whose Olympic-level speed can deliver week-winning splash plays, while still circling back for a high-ceiling QB2 on the next turn. Pat framed it as a structural hack that converts positional scarcity and ADP inefficiency into advance-rate equity.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound flagged Oklahoma State star Ollie Gordon as the kind of moon-shot running back he wants in the final two rounds of Underdog’s single-entry Greyhound. Pat likes having Gordon alongside Keaton Mitchell because both backs can actually crack lineups down the stretch instead of squatting on a low-ceiling WR6 like Roman Wilson. Gordon just led the FBS in rushing yards per game (121) and posted 27 runs of 20-plus yards, showing the big-play juice that can matter if he lands day-one touches after the NFL trade deadline or gets promoted from a committee late in the year. Pat said “two of those late clicks” at RB give your roster real points-above-replacement equity while costing zero advance-rate risk if they flame out.

Andrew Novak recommended shorting Miami in futures markets—taking UNDER on wins or betting them to miss the playoffs—because he can "fully see the Dolphins flopping." Novak sketched a nightmare script: Miami opens against a gauntlet of top-10 defenses, the offensive line still struggles to protect Tua Tagovailoa, and an early 0-6 spiral costs Mike McDaniel his job. He added that Tyreek Hill is already nursing lower-body issues, so one setback could leave the offense without its vertical cheat code. Given the fragile health histories of both Hill and Tua, Novak believes Miami’s ceiling is priced in while the very real floor is not, creating a sell opportunity before Week 1.

Andy Holloway said snagging Tyreek Hill in the fourth round of 2025 drafts is "delicious bait." Holloway pointed to fresh camp video that showed Hill exploding off the line next to Jaylen Waddle and emphasized newly published veteran-open-rate data that still has Hill at the very top of the league. He argued Hill’s 2024 downturn was more about Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion issues, Mike McDaniel’s conservative in-season adjustments and a leaky Miami offensive line—not physical decline from the soon-to-be 31-year-old. With McDaniel committed to quicker releases in 2025, Holloway believes Hill remains one of the last receivers on the board who can realistically finish inside the overall WR1 tier, making him an auto-click any time he slips past Round 3 in season-long or best-ball formats.

Heath Cummings pointed out that managers are over-penalizing Tua Tagovailoa for last year’s concussions, making this the ideal window to buy. He has noticed that injury-prone labels stick hardest in the offseason when owners aren’t setting weekly line-ups; once Tagovailoa is on the field and throwing to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle every Sunday, the fear fades and his price climbs. Cummings expects Miami’s high-volume passing attack to keep Tua in the weekly top-12 discussion, and he suggested floating late firsts or packages built around non-elite veterans to capture the discount before preseason reports of Tagovailoa’s "best shape of his life" narratives erase it.

Jason Moore argued that Tyreek Hill is still an undervalued first-round pick because drafters are baking in 2024’s muted deep-passing environment as the new normal. Moore noted that despite Miami dialling back vertical shots, Hill still posted 119 catches and 1,672 yards on a league-leading 31 % target share. He believes Miami’s offense is a prime candidate for positive regression toward its 2022 deep-ball rate—when Hill averaged 12.5 yards per target and finished as the unquestioned WR1 overall—citing improved offensive-line health and defensive coordinators inevitably committing more resources to the box after Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane became underneath focal points. Moore contends that if Mike McDaniel unlocks even a modest uptick in down-field attempts, Hill’s ceiling vaults back into 2,000-yard territory while his current ADP sits closer to WR5. He urged season-long and best-ball gamers to treat Hill as a potential league-winner who is not being drafted anywhere near his true ceiling.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound told drafters to smash De'Von Achane at the two-three turn in Underdog’s SuperFlex rooms now that the quarterback pool after the elite names has flattened out. He said the Caleb Williams–Brock Purdy–Dak Prescott tier all project within a few weekly points, so using that pick on an explosive back before the RB shelf falls off is the sharper play. Achane averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 1.37 fantasy points per touch as a rookie, and Pat expects a 14-17 touch workload with Miami returning all five O-line starters while leaning on 32-year-old Raheem Mostert for only change-of-pace work. Pat also noted Miami’s Week-17 dome game against Houston provides an ideal playoff environment. Because later quarterbacks like Geno Smith or Sam Darnold are still available four rounds later, he believes taking Achane early and filling QB later delivers a higher ceiling and better roster balance in today’s SuperFlex lobbies.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound cautioned that Jonnu Smith’s price hinges on where he ultimately plays. Miami is acceptable at his current sticker—he still goes directly after Mark Andrews and before Evan Engram—but a rumored move to Pittsburgh would wreck his fantasy profile. Pat noted that a Steelers landing spot would drop Smith into the David Njoku tier because Pittsburgh ranks bottom-three in tight-end target share over the past two seasons and currently lacks a proven quarterback. Until the contract restructure is finalized, Pat is trimming exposure or taking him only on Tua stacks to protect against the downside.

Davis Mattek called Jaylen Waddle the single biggest bounce-back bet on the board. After four straight years as a Round-2 staple, Waddle has slipped into the fifth because he played through an oblique strain and ceded a 31 percent target share to Tyreek Hill, finishing 66-1,014-4. Mattek noted Waddle still ranked ninth in yards per route run (2.60) and posted the fastest ball-carrier speed of 2023, so the efficiency never left—volume did. He expects that volume to rebound above 23 percent as defenses devote even more help to Hill and as natural touchdown regression pushes Waddle closer to the nine scores he averaged his first two seasons. Mattek likened the discount to last year’s Chris Olave buy-low, emphasizing that a player capable of 1,400 yards and double-digit TDs should never last to Pick 50. His advice: smash Waddle in Round 5, especially when finishing Miami stacks.

Davis Mattek said Jonnu Smith is one of his favorite throw-away tight ends to mix into May best-ball portfolios. Mattek argued last year’s bloated Atlanta target total was more a symptom of a broken scheme than an indictment of Smith’s talent—proof that coaches will pepper him when the playbook stalls. Dropping him into Mike McDaniel’s turbo-charged Miami attack gives the Dolphins a curveball formation: weeks where defenses sell out to stop Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, McDaniel can pivot to 4-TE looks and feed the 6-3, 248-pound Smith on drags and RPO seams. In an offense that averaged 29.6 points in Tua Tagovailoa’s healthy starts, even a 12–14 percent target share would spawn two-TD spike weeks that matter in Underdog’s playoff pods. Because Smith is routinely available in Rounds 17–18, Mattek views him as a near-free ceiling bet who lets drafters punt early tight end without sacrificing upside.

Ryan Noonan told DFS grinders to attack Miami’s defense from Week 1, predicting the unit will be among the league’s most generous to opposing pass games. He cited a secondary that could lose aging Jalen Ramsey and already lacks starting-caliber corners behind him. The back end struggled last season even with Vic Fangio, and the new staff did little beyond drafting rookie edge Chop Robinson. Noonan expects teams to shred Miami between the numbers, noting that the Dolphins allowed the seventh-highest EPA per drop-back over the final eight weeks of 2024. With Tua’s health a perpetual question, game scripts could tilt pass-heavy against a thin depth chart, creating smash spots for stackable WR/QB combinations and plus-EV reception props. He summarized the strategy as “DFS training-wheels: whoever plays the Dolphins, start them.”

Pat Mayo called De'Von Achane a worthwhile 50-1 flyer for OPOY now that Raheem Mostert’s departure opens a 60-plus-percent snap share. Mayo emphasized Achane’s league-best 7.8 yards per touch and noted Mike McDaniel lined him up in the slot on 18 % of passing snaps—evidence voters will see both rushing and receiving splash plays. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle battling age and durability concerns, Mayo expects Miami to funnel touches to its most electric playmaker. He also stressed narrative: highlight-reel 60-yarders stick in the heads of human voters, and Achane will remain on the field in either positive or negative game scripts, padding counting stats even if the Dolphins hover around .500. Mayo thinks a handful of 200-yard multi-TD blow-ups could put Achane squarely in the conversation regardless of Miami’s final record.

Hartitz could not believe Tyreek Hill is slipping into the early third round, noting fantasy-life projections still slot him as the WR4 overall. He chalked last year’s dip in production up to Miami’s patchwork offensive line and Tua’s multiple injuries, issues the team partially addressed with Terron Armstead’s return to health and continuity in Mike McDaniel’s scheme. Hill still ranked top-six in target share (28 %) and yards per route run (2.78) but finished outside the top 10 in touchdowns—a number Hartitz expects to regress positively. He argued the only thing holding ADP down is “weird Twitter posts,” not on-field concerns, and predicted Week 1 will remind everyone why the Cheetah averages 19.7 PPR points since joining Miami.

Davis Mattek closed his draft with Ollie Gordon, arguing the 230-pound rookie is a "more natural fit for the Mostert role" than any other Miami back. Gordon averaged 4.2 yards after contact at Oklahoma State and forced a missed tackle every 4.3 carries—numbers Mattek said mirror Raheem Mostert’s 2023 breakout. With Mostert entering age-32 season and De’Von Achane profiling as a space back, Mattek sees Gordon earning goal-line and clock-draining carries by mid-season. In a Mike McDaniel offense that generated a league-high 32 running-back red-zone touches after Week 10, even a part-time hammer could post multiple 20-point weeks. Mattek recommends scooping Gordon in the final round wherever possible to capture that asymmetric upside.

Billy Jones said it is "flat-out irresponsible" to click Tua Tagovailoa in BBM6 unless you have at least two other Dolphins already rostered. Miami has refused to use a true WR3 under Mike McDaniel—only 8 % of 2023 pass snaps featured someone beyond Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle—so you cannot back-stack the quarterback late the way you can with most offenses. Jones likes grabbing Tyreek or Waddle early, mixing in either pass-catching back De’Von Achane or new tight end Jonnu Smith around the 7-10 turn, and then letting Tua come to him at or just after ADP. If another drafter snipes Tagovailoa, he simply pivots off the Dolphin build rather than settling for an uncorrelated quarterback. Jones expects another 4,000-yard season and thinks warm Miami weather in Week 17 gives the double-stack legitimate tournament-winning ceiling.

Pete Overzet admitted he was "kind of bearish" on De'Von Achane before the NFL Draft but said he has now "come around" because the draft "went pretty well for him." Miami declined to add meaningful competition, leaving Achane atop a backfield tied to one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Overzet likes Achane more than Derrick Henry at similar ADP, arguing that Achane’s big-play profile and lack of new challengers give him a cleaner runway to outsized spike weeks. Given the Dolphins’ league-leading efficiency metrics from 2023 and the speed-based scheme Mike McDaniel wants to run, Overzet views Achane as a high-ceiling RB2 worth scooping any time he slips into the mid-second round of Best Ball Mania drafts.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound is backing off Tyreek Hill for now after news surfaced he will have screws removed from his wrist, a development that has already knocked Hill’s ADP down 11 percent. Pat expects the price to rebound once camp videos show Hill at full speed, but until then he prefers to use early-first capital on healthier elites. He warned that casual drafters returning in August will instinctively click Hill earlier, so the current discount window may slam shut quickly; in the meantime Pat is reallocating those shares to Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb.

Cody Woodman argued Rhamondre Stevenson is a stone-cold smash at his current Round-10 price tag. Stevenson’s ankle is fully healed, the Patriots declined to add meaningful backfield competition, and new OC Alex Van Pelt just spent four years designing a run-heavy, zone-blocking attack that pumped out 1,400-yard seasons for Nick Chubb. Cody projects Stevenson for 260 touches, a pass-blocking snap share north of 60 %, and top-12 red-zone carry volume on a team that should lean conservative with rookie QB Drake Maye. Given that drafters are now comfortably in "do-whatever-you-want" territory after pick 120, Cody thinks Stevenson is the last running back on the board with a plausible 20-point per-game ceiling and is scooping him aggressively whenever he slips past 9.12.

Davis Mattek picked De'von Achane as his round-two smash, saying even a 50% haircut to last season’s ludicrous 8.0 YPC paired with 75% of his 2024 workload would still make him the story of 2025. He reminded listeners that Achane and Raheem Mostert finished RB2 and RB4 in points per game and that Miami still lacks a true third wide receiver. Mattek expects Mike McDaniel to continue scheming red-zone space plays for Achane, projecting roughly 170 carries and 80 receptions if the Dolphins offensive line can be merely league-average instead of bottom-two. Rookie backs Jalen Wright and Ollie Gordon can spell him, but Mattek believes the market’s discomfort—volume bros think he’s a gadget player, zero-RB drafters think he’s too expensive—has left Achane underpriced in the mid-second round.

Davis Mattek called Jaylen Waddle a "super-boring" but wildly mispriced Round-5 pick. Waddle’s worst season in 2024—72-1,003-4 on only 105 targets—still produced WR32 numbers, and Mattek noted that even a 20 % bump on that line would push him back inside the top-20 wideouts. The Dolphins have averaged 30.6 points in games where Tua Tagovailoa and both starting receivers are healthy, so Mattek thinks all Waddle needs is a healthy season rather than a dramatic role change. He compared him to an "Anthony Davis" type who frequently limps off but still posts nuclear weeks—highlighting Waddle’s 35-point explosion in Week 9 last year. With drafters now selecting him more than two rounds later than 2024’s second-round ADP, Mattek believes the boundary for mattering is extremely low, making Waddle a rock-solid floor play who can still win weeks if the Dolphins offense takes even a modest step forward.

Tyler Sullivan cautioned bettors not to take Baltimore’s 7-to-1 Super Bowl price at face value until the Ravens shore up cornerback. He highlighted that the defense ranked LAST in passing yards allowed through Week 10 before a dramatic mid-season turnaround and warned the true talent level is probably "somewhere in the middle." Sullivan pegged Jalen Ramsey as the ideal target, noting GM Eric DeCosta’s history of adding proven vets (Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins). Pairing Ramsey with Marlon Humphrey and rookie Nate Wiggins would insulate the unit against regression and strengthen Baltimore’s path through a stacked AFC North.

Davis Mattek could not believe Anthony Richardson routinely goes ahead of Tua Tagovailoa in Underdog’s Eliminator drafts. He reminded listeners that Tua has finished as the overall QB1 or QB2 in three of the past four Septembers and benefits from four straight warm-weather games to open 2024—exactly when Eliminator rosters must survive the biggest weekly cuts. Mattek argued that early spike-week certainty outweighs Richardson’s theoretical rushing ceiling, especially because AR’s shoulder rehab still limits his preseason reps. With rooms sometimes leaving Tua on the board until the QB15 range, Mattek is scooping every discount share and letting draft capital dictate whether he even needs a third quarterback.

Danny Kanell expressed real concern about Tua Tagovailoa’s 2024 outlook. Despite the new contract, Kanell expects Miami’s 24-year playoff-win drought to continue, citing Tagovailoa’s multiple concussions, a run game that still lacks a true power back, and what he views as a finesse-first mentality under Mike McDaniel. He contrasted the Dolphins’ roster building with teams that gave their young QBs downhill runners (e.g., Saquon Barkley to Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry to Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey to Brock Purdy). Kanell questioned Miami’s mental toughness after they ‘looked frozen’ in Kansas City and pointed to Tyreek Hill omitting Tua from his top-five QB list as another chemistry warning sign. Recommendation: downgrade Tua a tier in season-long rankings and be cautious with Miami playoff futures.

Michael Leone said De'Von Achane should still be going at last year’s 1-2 turn price because the role concerns are gone. Achane logged a true every-down workload down the stretch in 2023 – something drafters never gave him credit for – and Leone projects that to stick in the 17-20-touch range even after Miami added rookie Ollie Gordon as a change-of-pace option. The only thing that cratered was big-play rate: Achane’s yards per carry fell from 7.8 as a rookie to 4.6, but Leone blamed that on a banged-up offensive line and two separate Tua injuries that kneecapped overall efficiency. If those pieces stay healthy, he expects the home-run plays to “snap back” while the workload remains intact, giving Achane both a top-5 weekly ceiling and a rock-solid floor at his current early-second ADP. Leone labeled the price tag “super bullish closing-line value” for Best Ball Mania drafters willing to start RB-RB.

Pete Overzet called rookie runner Jaylen Wright a classic "value-hound" pick after scooping him 22 spots past ADP at 210 overall. With ambiguous depth-chart battles unfolding ahead of him, Overzet likes Wright as a fifth running back who can unlock contingent upside if veteran bodies break down. The steep slide relative to Michael Leone’s ranking (186) provides immediate closing-line value, and Overzet believes Wright’s athletic profile makes him the kind of late-season difference-maker that can swing Best Ball Mania advance rates.

Pete Overzet labeled Jaylen Waddle a priority target now that he’s fallen into the late-third/early-fourth round. Waddle still owns 2.47 career yards per route and plays in a Dolphins offense that ranked second in neutral-situation pass rate. Overzet emphasized Waddle’s massive contingent upside—he becomes the clear alpha if Tyreek Hill misses time or is moved—and pointed out that Waddle can still drop 30-point spike weeks even when Hill is healthy thanks to Miami’s vertical scheme. He views the discounted price as a clean leverage spot on drafters who are overly recency-biased toward last year’s injury-marred season.

Davis Mattek said he would rather draft Tyreek Hill at a similar ADP than Jonathan Taylor because Hill has the clearer path to being “the guy you needed” on Underdog in 2025. Hill averaged 18.5 fantasy points in games he started and finished last season, and Mattek believes a quiet summer or a blockbuster trade to an elite offense (he floated Dallas or Kansas City) could unlock an even higher ceiling. While the market is currently skittish due to trade and health rumors, Mattek sees a scenario where Hill reports to camp healthy, stays out of the headlines and smashes. He contrasted Hill’s massive spike-week potential with Taylor’s capped upside in a one-dimensional rushing role, concluding that the wide receiver’s range of outcomes is wider but carries a much higher top end.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound spotlighted Jonnu Smith as the perfect complement in patient tight-end builds. Smith’s 6.6 yards after catch per reception ranked third among tight ends last year, and Miami’s motion-heavy scheme under Mike McDaniel is tailor-made for that skill set. Pat expects Smith to function as the offense’s third read behind Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but noted that both receivers missed time in 2023 and are another year older. If either star sits, Smith’s designed-touch role could balloon to 5-6 targets per game, a level that routinely lands tight ends in weekly top-12 range. Because he often slips past pick 190, Pat likes pairing Smith with a mid-tier option such as Dalton Kincaid and banking on one of the two emerging as a difference-maker during the playoff weeks.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound argued that Tua Tagovailoa is a slam-dunk pick at his current Underdog ADP around 153 (QB22). Tagovailoa averaged 20.1 fantasy points in games where both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle played at least 50% of snaps last season, a pace that would have finished as the QB10. Pat acknowledged Miami’s injury volatility but pointed out that drafters are being paid handsomely for that risk—Tua now goes three full rounds after Jordan Love despite a higher per-game ceiling. With Mike McDaniel retaining his play-calling duties and the Dolphins adding yards-after-catch specialist Jonnu Smith, Pat sees an easy path to multiple 30-point spike weeks. He likes stopping at two quarterbacks in builds anchored by Tua and another upside passer, freeing a roster spot while still capturing elite efficiency if the receiving corps can stay upright for 14-plus games.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound proclaimed Jaylen Waddle one of his favorite Round-5 swing picks, emphasizing how easy it is to build unique Dolphins stacks because Tua Tagovailoa routinely slips well past ADP if the Tyreek drafter already double-tapped quarterback. Pat reminded listeners that Miami’s offense averaged 29.2 points per game in contests Tua started but cratered without him, reinforcing Waddle’s dependency on a healthy quarterback—and the importance of stacking the pair. Waddle’s current price bakes in last season’s injury-marred stretch yet ignores his back-to-back 24% target-per-route and top-15 yards-per-route metrics. Pat likes pairing him with an elite QB up top or circling back for Tua in the ninth, calling it "one of the simplest ways to create 30-point spike-week upside without paying Tyreek’s first-round tax."

Davis Mattek refuses to quit Jaylen Waddle, noting the 26-year-old posted 2.50 and 2.46 yards per route run in his first two seasons with a 26% targets-per-route rate—numbers that scream upper-tier fantasy producer. Mattek thinks last year’s dip is the blip, not the new normal: Waddle is still in an explosive offense, has no underlying injury, and Tyreek Hill trade rumors remain a non-zero outcome that would unlock a WR1 ceiling. With drafters spooked, Mattek is fine paying a future third-round rookie pick equivalent today, expecting to flip Waddle for considerably more once he reverts to pre-2024 efficiency. He called it a classic dynasty arbitrage: buy a proven talent at a one-year discount and bank on regression to the mean.

Pat Kerrane shoved Jaylen Waddle down into his Courtland Sutton/Calvin Ridley tier, arguing the former first-rounder is about to shed even more dynasty value. Kerrane cited multiple structural issues: Miami’s offensive line remains a mess, forcing Mike McDaniel to lean on ultra-quick, underneath concepts that prioritize Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith and Devon Achane ahead of Waddle. Add Hill’s continued dominance, Tua Tagovailoa’s ongoing concussion risk, and the fact the Dolphins’ backup plan is Zach Wilson, and Kerrane sees a scenario where Waddle becomes the fourth read on a passing attack you barely want a second piece of. Another 2024-style season would crater his startup price, so Kerrane recommends cashing out now for younger assets or future rookie picks before the market fully bakes in the downside.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he would have loved to click rookie Ollie Gordon in the late-double-digit rounds, calling him a "sneaky option" to control Miami’s goal-line work if the Dolphins do indeed add him. Pat compared the Oklahoma State star’s 6-foot-1, 211-pound frame and 19-TD sophomore season (6.1 YPC, 32-percent dominator rating) to what Raheem Mostert did in Mike McDaniel’s scheme last year—30 red-zone carries, 18 TDs, RB5 overall. With Mostert entering his age-32 season and De’Von Achane profiling as a space player rather than a grinder, Pat expects Miami to import a larger back. He thinks any training-camp report hinting that Gordon is getting short-yardage reps will send his Underdog ADP screaming up ten-plus spots and urged drafters to grab him now while he’s free.

Sam Monson cautioned fantasy managers not to overreact to Ollie Gordon’s raw college box scores. He called Gordon a "massive, strong" back who thrives only when his blocking is already winning—evidenced by the tailback’s 3.1 yards-before-contact per attempt during Oklahoma State’s 2023 four-game win streak versus just 1.0 in the Cowboys’ five losses. Monson pointed out Gordon’s middling burst scores (sub-40th percentile ten-yard split) and lack of lateral juice, meaning he rarely creates on his own when the line loses. That profile makes him highly game-script and opponent dependent in Miami: if the rebuilt line jells and the Dolphins face lighter boxes designed to stop Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Gordon can mash for "big numbers," but if protection breaks down he offers little more than three yards and a cloud of dust. Monson advised treating Gordon as a DFS punt or bye-week fill-in only against bottom-third run defenses and keeping season-long expectations capped at 8–10 carries with touchdown-or-bust value.

Sam Monson said Quinn Ewers is the exact type of lottery-ticket quarterback he would place in Mike McDaniel’s offense. Monson argued that Miami’s YAC-heavy scheme and track-team speed would minimize Ewers’ biggest weakness—deep-ball consistency—while accentuating his quick release and RPO background from Texas. He reminded listeners that Ewers entered college as a rare 1.000-grade 247Sports recruit, flashed top-10 pick talent in early 2022 before a shoulder injury, and then gutted through multiple ailments last season, which sapped his arm strength and tanked his accuracy metrics (PFF passing grade fell from 85.2 pre-injury to 70.6 after). Because of those injuries, Monson views Ewers’ seventh-round draft capital as a buying opportunity for superflex dynasty managers who can afford a 1-to-2-year stash. If Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history resurfaces or Miami decides against a massive second contract, Ewers could be the cheap in-house replacement with upside. Fantasy takeaway: scoop him up in the fourth round of rookie drafts or spend a late $1 in deep best-ball formats and hope the development track mirrors Brock Purdy rather than Kellen Mond.

Steve Palazzolo predicted the Dolphins drafted Ollie Gordon specifically to give their track-team backfield a power element when winter hits. Gordon rumbled for 1,732 yards and 21 TDs at Oklahoma State last year, regularly breaking tackles and thriving in bad weather games. Palazzolo expects Mike McDaniel to lean on speed (Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane) during the first three months, then unleash the 6-foot-1, 215-pound Gordon on December and January road trips to the Northeast where Mostert/ Achane have struggled between the tackles. That role should come with short-yardage and goal-line touches; Palazzolo forecasted a 10-12 carry workload with high TD equity in late-season matchups at the Jets and Patriots. Fantasy managers in deep season-long leagues or best-ball playoff formats should stash Gordon now, and DFS players can earmark him as a low-salary smash in cold-weather weeks.

Sam Monson said Miami can squeeze real fantasy value out of first-rounder Kenneth Grant if they refuse to pigeon-hole him as a 340-pound, two-down nose. Monson highlighted Grant’s rare movement skills for his size—sub-5.0 forty range speed, nimble feet, and the ability to chase a running back 30 yards downfield on tape. He likened the Michigan product to Alan Branch or even BJ Raji in a ‘nose-tackle body, three-tech play style’ mold and noted that Grant’s best college reps came via quickness, swim moves, and interior penetration rather than taking on double teams. Grant logged nearly 550 snaps last season (200 more than Jordan Davis ever managed at Georgia) and improved each year, easing concerns about conditioning and workload. If new DC Anthony Weaver “lets him cook” on passing downs, Monson believes Grant can be a three-down force who pushes for 6–8 sacks as a rookie and instantly upgrades Miami’s fantasy D/ST while emerging as a dynasty IDP sleeper at a scarce defensive tackle position.

Davis Mattek said he is drafting Jonnu Smith ahead of Travis Kelce straight up in Best Ball because he expects Miami to move Tyreek Hill at the trade deadline, creating a massive mid-season target void. Mattek walked through Mike Clay’s conservative projection of 67-693-4 (TE9, 159 PPR points) and argued that is the absolute floor if Hill exits. He thinks Smith will inherit many of the lay-up throws that kept Hill’s YAC numbers gaudy, while Jaylen Waddle soaks up the down-field routes. Mattek compared the potential volume surge to Darren Waller’s 2020 breakout after the Raiders traded Amari Cooper, noting that Mike McDaniel already targets tight ends in the red zone at a top-10 rate. At a double-digit ADP, Mattek believes Smith offers an outsized ceiling relative to cost and is a leverage pivot off early-round elites.

Nez Badge Bros said Jaylen Waddle is one of his favorite Eliminator picks right now because drafters are baking in zero contingency value despite ongoing uncertainty around Tyreek Hill. If anything goes sideways with Hill, Waddle immediately inherits WR1 duties in an offense that finished top-3 in both yards-per-route and explosive-pass rate last year. Nez reminded listeners that Waddle sat in the mid-second round of ADP each of the past two summers, so scooping him a full round later provides built-in closing-line value. Even without a Hill absence, Waddle’s 25-plus percent target share ceiling and proven spike-week profile give him the steady weekly floor Eliminator lineups crave, while holding league-winning upside if the depth chart thins.

Davis Mattek sees sixth-rounder Ollie Gordon (226 lbs) filling the power role Miami lacked in 2024. Gordon’s 2023 Big-12 breakout featured eight straight 100-yard games, 3.71 YAC, 68 missed tackles and a 54 % breakaway rate. Although production dipped in 2024, Mattek thinks Mike McDaniel targeted a true between-the-tackles hammer so De’Von Achane can stay in space. Jalen Wright averaged only 3.7 YPC with a 39 % success rate when given the first crack at the thunder job, and Alexander Mattison offers little resistance. Mattek expects Gordon to beat Wright in camp and projects "massive" fantasy upside given Miami’s history of two top-10 RBs and the possibility Tyreek Hill isn’t back. Gordon is a late-round dart with league-winning ceiling in Best-Ball and redraft.

Mike Wright called De'von Achane “a big winner” because Miami waited until the sixth round to take Ollie Gordon, a back Wright dismissed as a depth flier after his efficiency cratered to 3.9 YPC last season. Achane averaged 6.8 yards per touch and finished top-five in breakaway run rate as a rookie, yet still saw double-digit carries only seven times. Wright expects Mike McDaniel to expand Achane’s role now that the front office prioritized trenches and secondary over premium backfield help. With only Raheem Mostert (33 years old) and the raw Gordon behind him, Wright projected 230 total touches, including 50 receptions, and placed Achane firmly inside his top-15 running backs for 2025 season-long drafts. He urged drafters to pounce on Achane in Round 2 before summer ADP climbs.