Matt LaMarca acknowledged Miami’s dreadful opener but still tagged De'Von Achane as a high-variance GPP target, citing the back’s monster home/early-season splits: +5.18 DK Plus/Minus at Hard Rock Stadium and +15.15 in September/October. The Dolphins are slight favorites over New England, a defense that ranked 21st in rush-defense EPA and gave up the seventh-most PPR points to RBs in 2024. If the offense stabilizes back in Miami heat, Achane’s big-play profile could pay off tournament winning upside at $6,900.

Will Hill took the Dolphins moneyline, banking on the NFL’s frequent Week-to-Week correction where teams that looked worst rebound. He added that South Florida’s September heat and humidity remain a unique home-field edge for Miami.

MacMillan grabbed Miami –1 (–110, Caesars), calling the Dolphins a "penny stock" after their Week 1 embarrassment and offseason locker-room rumors. He cited the Dolphins’ league-best rush EPA in the opener as evidence the offensive talent remains intact. Conversely, he was already bearish on New England and said Mike Vrabel "isn’t an automatic fix." With a one-point spread, he sees value backing the more explosive roster in a bounce-back spot.

John Middlekauff said Tyreek Hill’s real-world value has fallen far faster than the public realizes. He compared Hill to an aging NBA star whose name recognition obscures declining trade leverage: the contract is massive, the soon-to-be-31-year-old speedster is nearing the athletic cliff, and a fresh round of domestic-violence headlines only tightens the market. Middlekauff believes NFL front offices would only bite if Miami ate salary and accepted late-round compensation, a signal that fantasy and dynasty managers should explore sell-high windows before perception finally catches up to reality.

Pat Mayo grabbed Miami at +1.5 (best number on SharpStack) and predicted the Dolphins will “roll” Indianapolis. He likes Miami’s spot because the offense is finally at full strength—De’Von Achane has been cleared, giving Mike McDaniel his entire track-team lineup. Mayo emphasized that the Colts allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs last year and, as Rob Pizzola noted, Achane ranks top-10 in target rate at the position, so Miami can repeatedly isolate him on linebackers in space. While Mayo concedes the Dolphins’ defense is shaky, he doubts the Colts’ limited pass-catching corps— a recovering Michael Pittman and slot-only Josh Downs—can keep pace, and he thinks Daniel Jones will “give it away a few times.” He would have been willing to lay up to a touchdown, making the short dog price an auto-bet.

Pat Mayo circled De'Von Achane’s first-quarter receiving line of 2.5 yards on Underdog as a glaring over. Achane’s full-game number sits at 34.5, so one routine catch cashes the ticket. Mayo noted the matchup is against a defense that has struggled to contain pass-catching running backs and emphasized that the rookie still runs routes and will take check-downs even after returning from multiple concussions. He called it the first leg in his Week-1 pick-’em entry and urged listeners to grab the over before it moves.

Tafur backed Miami +1, predicting Tua Tagovailoa will reconnect with Tyreek Hill on go routes. Hill produced 13 TDs on 27 such catches in 2022-23 but none last year; the Colts allowed 33 yards per reception on go routes in 2024, second-worst. With rebuilt offensive and defensive lines, Tafur expects the Dolphins to out-muscle Indy and spoil the first home game of the Daniel Jones era.

Hennion backed Miami on the moneyline (-105), noting the franchise is 38-24 straight-up with Tua Tagovailoa under center but only 9-13 without him since 2020. In six Tua-less games last year (Weeks 3-5, 7, 17-18) the Dolphins ranked 32nd in EPA/play and 31st in success rate, yet from Weeks 8-16 with a healthy Tagovailoa they vaulted to 8th and 3rd, respectively. Miami finished 2nd in offensive DVOA in 2023. Indianapolis placed 20th last season and 13th the year prior, giving it a lower ceiling regardless of whether Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones starts. A historical trend—road dogs in Weeks 1-2 that missed last year’s playoffs and won 4-8 games are 84-38-5 ATS (68.9%), including 11-4 ATS when between PK and +1.5—adds support with Miami sitting +1.5 in consensus markets.

Saracini grabbed Dolphins moneyline as short road dogs, calling Indianapolis "one of the worst teams in the NFL." He highlighted Miami’s defensive upgrades — the signing of Matthew Judon, the return of Jaelen Phillips and Minkah Fitzpatrick patrolling centerfield — as enough to bottle up a Colts attack led by Daniel Jones. On offense he trusts Tua Tagovailoa to feast on a secondary that ranked 28th in EPA per dropback last season. Saracini anticipates Miami winning the explosive-play battle and stealing a statement road win.

Ignoring offseason "dysfunction" narratives, MacMillan took Dolphins +1.5, citing a massive talent and speed edge on offense. He is unimpressed with an Indianapolis attack led by Daniel Jones and sees Miami as the superior roster on both sides of the ball when healthy.

Ulrich recommended cutting Jaylen Wright, explaining that the back wasted a huge head start on Miami’s No. 2 job behind De'Von Achane. Wright managed 'next to nothing' in exhibition play, then underwent a minor leg procedure and is unlikely to return before Week 3. Sixth-rounder Ollie Gordon averaged 4.8 YPC and piled up 128 preseason rushing yards, flashing goal-line power that pushed Wright to third on the depth chart. With Achane healthy again, Ulrich sees no reason to burn a roster spot waiting.

Erickson advised chasing alternate receiving-yard props on Jaylen Waddle (100+, 125+, 150+). He called Colts-Dolphins a true four-outcome game with boom-bust potential on both sides and believes a track-meet script would let Waddle’s deep-speed annihilate Indianapolis’ secondary. Rather than settle for the median line, he wants the bigger payouts attached to Waddle’s ceiling games.

Matthew Betz labeled Ollie Gordon the perfect lottery ticket in the final rounds. De’Von Achane is already nursing a calf strain—an injury Betz said carries a high re-injury rate—while presumed backup Jalen Wright just underwent a minor procedure and will miss about a month. Miami’s remaining depth is practice-squad veteran Jeff Wilson, so Betz expects Gordon to open the year as the clear RB2 with a real shot at the goal-line role thanks to his 227-pound frame and Doak Walker pedigree. If Achane’s calf flares up, Gordon could inherit three-down work in a Mike McDaniel rushing scheme that has historically produced RB1 weeks for its No. 2 back. Betz acknowledged concerns about Miami’s shaky offensive line and the pressure on McDaniel’s staff, but the negligible opportunity cost (14th-15th round in redraft; 18th-20th in best ball) makes Gordon an easy upside swing that can be cut if the depth chart shifts.

James Koh urged drafters to grab Ollie Gordon in the 10th round even if that is several spots ahead of his current ADP. Koh noted that Gordon’s ADP is 'insanely low' relative to the buzz he is generating in camp, and he expects the market to keep climbing right up until kickoff. Waiting for ADP to catch up risks missing out entirely, so Koh said to ignore the queue, treat Gordon as a high-upside stash, and click his name in the double-digit rounds.

Polzin said that should Tyreek Hill miss Week 1, Malik Washington becomes the slate’s best value receiver and a natural low-owned stack with Tua Tagovailoa. Washington logged first-team preseason snaps, has manufactured touches baked in, and earned praise from Tua for his football IQ. Even if Hill plays, Polzin projects a 50 percent snap rate; without Hill, he expects Washington’s late-season workload from last year to "double," giving him an easy 3x pathway at $3K and change.

Chris Raybon advised taking the under on De'Von Achane's 7.5 rushing-touchdown season-long prop. Raybon pointed to multiple red flags: 1) Raheem Mostert may be past his prime but is still trusted at the goal line, siphoning short-yardage work. 2) Achane is dealing with a preseason calf issue that could linger or flare up again, shrinking his volume ceiling. 3) Miami’s offensive line just lost its best blocker, Terron Armstead, which Raybon believes will hurt run-game efficiency inside the red zone. 4) He expects the Dolphins to face more negative game scripts than the market projects, tilting their offense toward the pass. Because Achane’s explosive plays are more likely to come through the air, Raybon thinks seven or eight ground scores is an optimistic projection and prefers the under.

Pat Fitzmaurice moved Tyreek Hill four spots below ECR, noting a production drop from 1,799 yards in 2023 to 959 in 2024. The biggest culprit was Tua Tagovailoa’s intended air yards falling from 7.7 to 5.7 per attempt. Jonnu Smith’s exit may free up a few targets, but Hill is now 31, and Fitzmaurice doubts we can count on full seasons from either Hill or Tua. He expects a rebound, just not enough to pay off mid-second-round draft capital.

Pat Fitzmaurice called Jaylen Waddle a classic buy-low following a 744-yard, 2-TD 2024 derailed by Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion. With Jonnu Smith gone to Pittsburgh, Waddle should log more slot snaps and absorb the easy targets that drove Smith’s PPR surge. Fitzmaurice reminded readers that Waddle led college football in yards per route run in 2020 and opened his NFL career with three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. He believes drafters are sleeping on Waddle’s ceiling.

Rich Hribar reluctantly took the Miami Dolphins but argued the market underrates their defensive front. If Chop Robinson, Bradley Chubb, and Jaelan Phillips are healthy—and with the recent addition of Matthew Judon—Hribar believes Miami’s pass rush can be “legitimately good,” offsetting a weak secondary. While acknowledging poor vibes (Mike McDaniel is the betting favorite for first coach fired), he thinks the front seven can steal games and make the posted win total too pessimistic.

Mike Wright said he expects Jaylen Waddle to emerge as Tua Tagovailoa’s clear No. 1 option by season’s end. His case centered on Miami’s contract structure: the Dolphins can move on from Tyreek Hill after 2025 with minimal dead money, while Waddle is already locked into a massive multi-year extension. Wright noted that a regime change or cap squeeze would naturally funnel volume to Waddle, whose per-route efficiency remains elite when healthy. The takeaway: in season-long and dynasty leagues Waddle is a buy, especially if drafters assume a static target split with Hill.

Jason Moore believes fantasy drafters are unfairly punishing Jaylen Waddle for last season’s injury chaos. Waddle’s 2024 finish as WR-46 masks the fact that in the five games he played with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa he was on a 1,300-yard pace. Moore added that Miami can exit Tyreek Hill’s contract after this season, meaning the team has every incentive to feature Waddle and evaluate him as its long-term WR1. With volume, talent, and contract momentum all lining up, Moore views Waddle as a prime bounce-back pick at his current discount.

Jake Ciely said he bumped Ollie Gordon up to RB38 in his final rankings and is drafting him ahead of every other back in the late-round handcuff tier. Ciely stressed that Gordon will open Week 1 as Miami’s number-two running back—and could be the starter if De’Von Achane’s injury lingers—on an offense that deliberately feeds its secondary back 8-12 touches and most of the goal-line looks. That weekly workload gives Gordon touchdown equity and "flex with benefits" value that backs such as Tyler Algier, Jordan Mason, Quinshon Judkins, Ray Davis and Tank Bigsby lack because they "aren’t definitively getting touches." Ciely views Gordon as a high-floor RB3 now with contingent RB1 upside if Achane misses time.

Ian Hartitz urged drafters to grab Ollie Gordon in the double-digit rounds after a perfect injury run-out in Miami. With Jaylen Wright ruled out for Week 1, De'Von Achane nursing a calf injury, and Alexander Mattison done for the year, Gordon is locked into at least the No. 2 job—and could open the season as the Dolphins’ lead back. Hartitz reminded listeners that Gordon posted a 2,000-yard, 20-TD campaign at Oklahoma State and was once mocked in the first round before falling to Round 6. Hartitz moved Gordon to RB 38 in his updated rankings, noting Miami routinely feeds its No. 2 back goal-line work. He expects Gordon to headline early waiver-wire columns if managers leave him undrafted.

Chris Raybon called Ollie Gordon the new Miami back to stash behind Devon Achane. Gordon has, in Raybon’s words, "looked much, much better" than Jaylen Wright on preseason reps, is healthy, and has handled passing-game work Wright never earned. Given Achane’s light frame and the Dolphins’ explosive offense, Raybon views Gordon as a high-ceiling bench piece in the double-digit rounds.

Andy Holloway called Ollie Gordon the biggest preseason riser. Holloway reminded listeners that Gordon opened camp as Miami’s fourth-string back but has averaged more than five yards per carry across three exhibition games while looking "really good" on film. The injury to Devon Achane’s hamstring has created a realistic A-and-B rotation path, and Holloway stressed the re-injury risk that often accompanies soft-tissue issues rushed back for Week 1. With Miami already a top-10 rushing offense, Holloway believes Gordon is now draftable in the final rounds as an immediate contingency play who could push for double-digit touches if Achane has any setback.

Jeff Mueller recommended scooping up Ollie Gordon in rounds 12-14 (current Underdog ADP RB58, pick 175) as an inexpensive hedge for managers who invest in Devon Achane. With Jalen Wright now "week-to-week" after struggling behind Miami’s porous offensive line, Mueller expects the Dolphins to lean on a bigger back in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Gordon’s tackle-breaking profile fits that role, giving him immediate touchdown upside and contingent value if Achane’s calf or the line collapses. The near-free price tag makes him an easy stash in redraft and best-ball formats.

Ian Hartitz called Ollie Gordon an ideal late-round dart after three separate injuries thinned Miami’s depth chart: De’Von Achane (calf, questionable for Week 1), Jaylen Wright (multi-week leg issue), and Alexander Mattison (season-ending neck). The 6-2, 225-pound sixth-round pick already impressed in August— Hartitz noted the stark performance gap between Gordon and Wright— and his 2023 Oklahoma State campaign (2,000+ total yards, 20+ rushing TDs) shows upside. Gordon now slots in as ‘next man up’ behind Achane in the same Mike McDaniel system that produced 21 touchdowns for Raheem Mostert in 2023. Buried outside the top-50 backs by ADP, Gordon is Hartitz’s favorite candidate to headline Week 2 waiver columns.

Peter Overzet urged managers to scoop up UDFA Ollie Gordon before the market catches up. Miami’s backfield is decimated—Alexander Mattison is out for the season (neck), De’Von Achane is nursing a soft-tissue injury, and Jaylen Wright has stumbled through an injury-marred preseason. That leaves Gordon, who has impressed in camp, with a legitimate chance to claim early-down and goal-line snaps as soon as Week 1 in Mike McDaniel’s high-tempo offense. Overzet highlighted that Ian Hartitz already moved Gordon up 19 spots (RB73 ➜ RB54) in Fantasy Life’s latest rankings, calling the jump a signal the industry is reacting quickly. Gordon is framed as a last-round lottery ticket with immediate touchdown equity.

Andy Holloway said he was happy scooping De'Von Achane at the two-three turn because the pessimism on his injury is overblown. Only one outside injury analyst has projected a three-game absence, a timeline Holloway called “ambitious” since it is not sourced from the Dolphins’ medical staff. He expects any absence to be closer to one game. Holloway highlighted how Jonnu Smith’s departure should funnel those short-area looks to Achan and projected the back for ‘near 100 targets.’ With Jaylen Wright already dinged, Holloway views Achane as the cheapest path to a potential PPR difference-maker, calling this the perfect spot to “pull the trigger way behind some other names.”

Siegele endorsed grabbing De'Von Achane at the back half of Round 2 after a minor camp injury pushed his ADP down four spots. Achane had been going at pick 11 overall but is now available around 15; Siegele called that discount ‘significant in the early rounds’ because Achane’s combination of 4.32 speed, pass-game chops and weekly 30-point ceiling fits perfectly with a McBride anchor start. The coach has already said Achane will be fine for Week 1, and Siegele argues that even if the back is 80 percent early, the tournament-winning upside outweighs the small re-injury risk. He views a McBride–Achane opening as a uniquely explosive pairing that can smash FFPC playoff weeks.

Jason Moore advised making Ollie Gordon a "pretty high-priority late target" in drafts after Miami’s running-back room was decimated. De'Von Achane is currently sidelined, Alexander Mattison was lost for the season, and rookie Jaylen Wright left Wednesday’s practice with an apparent injury. Moore noted that Gordon handled almost every first-team rep in the same practice and would project as the Week 1 starter if the Dolphins fail to trade for Brian Robinson or another veteran. With Miami’s offense expected to remain explosive and McDaniel historically giving his lead back 16+ touches when healthy, Moore believes Gordon offers immediate flex value and league-winning upside at the end of drafts.

Chris Allen advised smashing De'Von Achane at 2.02 if he slips because the Dolphins back offers Jahmyr-Gibbs style production at a cheaper ADP (16.2 overall). Achane’s 15.7 projected PPR points per game, 14% target share, and league-leading explosive-run rate give him a clear path to a top-six finish at the position. Allen contrasted him with the next backs in the tier—Josh Jacobs (13.6 PPG) and Bucky Irving (13.4)—arguing the per-touch ceiling and passing-game juice make Achane the clear pick for drafters starting Robust RB or Hero RB builds from the 1.11.

Middlekauff is aggressively fading Miami, saying "I think they're going to stink." He sees head coach Mike McDaniel already looking "ready to get fired" due to constant injuries and roster holes left by the front office. Chemistry concerns between Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa and the perennial "two-injuries-away" fragility amplify the downside. Middlekauff even questioned whether the job will attract top coaching candidates next offseason, framing the organization as unstable despite the attractive South Florida market and deep-pocketed ownership.

Tony Farmer advised betting the under on Tua Tagovailoa’s 2025 passing totals. He cited Miami’s "questionable offensive line" and Tagovailoa’s documented concussion history as a combination that raises both efficiency and games-played risk. Farmer sees enough downside volatility that rather than avoiding the market entirely, he prefers taking the under on any volume-based props for Tagovailoa.

Johnny Venezia advised fading Tyreek Hill at his WR12, 28th-overall cost. Hill’s 2024 line fell to 81 receptions, 959 yards and six touchdowns on just 123 targets—his lightest workload since 2019. Hill even admitted he "wasn’t 100 percent sure" of his role, and Venezia highlighted contradictory statements between Hill and Mike McDaniel as signs of a chaotic locker room. Venezia believes McDaniel could be the first head coach fired and wants no part of the Dolphins passing game at current prices. Given the turmoil, he would rather invest that late-second pick in stabler situations like Bucky Irving in Tampa.

Josh Norris said Tyreek Hill is still a ceiling-breaking pick at his new third-round ADP. He noted that whenever Miami’s protection held last season the offense repeatedly hit the 20–30-yard window, and an upgraded line should keep Tua Tagovailoa healthy enough to recreate that deep-shot environment. The combination of a healthy Tua and Mike McDaniel’s vertical play-calling gives Hill a higher upside than Garrett Wilson, while drafters are paying a full round-plus cheaper than in 2023-24. Norris concluded that the league-winning ceiling outweighs the slightly wider downside band at the current discount.

Kevin Szafraniec projected De’Von Achane for ‘massive volume’, especially through the air. He pointed out that Tagovailoa’s quick-hitting scheme produced multiple red-zone receiving touchdowns for Achane last year and that the quarterback is attempting to shave even more time off his release. With Jonnu Smith no longer siphoning underneath targets and Miami still bottom-five in run-blocking efficiency, Szafraniec expects Mike McDaniel to manufacture space touches rather than pound inside. He dismissed Tyreek Hill’s public doubts about goal-line usage as veteran jealousy and forecast an 80-plus-target season that makes Achane a smash pick in half-PPR and full-PPR best-ball formats.

Colm Kelly said Tua Tagovailoa is a ‘must-click’ because a healthy season almost guarantees a top-15 finish even though his current ADP is QB25. Miami’s offensive line ranked top-10 in pass-block win rate last year, helped by Tagovailoa’s league-best 2.36-second time-to-throw. Although Terron Armstead has retired, Kelly projects the unit to remain league-average and noted Tagovailoa is working to speed up his release even further. With Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane leading a YAC-driven attack, Kelly likened the setup to a warmer-weather version of Brock Purdy’s 49ers and sees no realistic path for a healthy Tua to finish as low as QB25.

Matthew Freedman recommended selling Darren Waller at his 207.8 FFPC ADP. The veteran tight end is still on the active/PUP list after a year away from football and Mike McDaniel will not commit to him practicing ahead of Week 1. Freedman noted that even TE-premium sharps are abandoning the once-elite option, a red flag he refuses to ignore.

Cooter Doodle told fantasy managers to keep De'Von Achane rather than panic-sell after reports of a soft-tissue injury surfaced. Achane cost a first-round pick this summer, and Doodle argued no one will pay fair value for “a potentially-hurt-already-injury-prone running back on an offense that sputters when its QB goes down.” With beat writers calling the issue minor, she recommends riding it out and monitoring practice reports instead of locking in a guaranteed loss by trading him now.

Despite last year’s 9.7 PPG, Waddle’s 2022-23 peripherals were elite: 25-27% first-down rate, 21-23% targets, and 2.59/2.69 YPRR. McFarland says a healthy Tua Tagovailoa or an age-related Tyreek Hill decline could push Waddle to a WR1 finish. At a Round 7 ADP of 73.4 he’s drafting him as a WR3 every time.

Shawn Siegele recommended grabbing Malik Washington in the final round as inexpensive insurance against a possible Tyreek Hill absence. Siegele expects “so many Malik Washington receptions” if Hill misses games because Miami’s offense already funnels short targets and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa rarely scrambles near the goal line. Washington’s late-2024 surge combined with an eye-opening preseason performance has driven a quiet rise in ADP, but he is still essentially free. Siegele views him as a clear, high-leverage contingency play in best-ball and season-long formats.

Ben Gretch took Jaylen Waddle several picks after ADP because multiple camp reports have Tyreek Hill “having a really bad August” while Waddle has functioned as Miami’s primary option. Gretch reminded listeners that Waddle caught 106 balls as a rookie with Tua Tagovailoa and that Tua’s scramble and designed-run rates have cratered, forcing Miami to rely on red-zone passing where targets concentrate on skill players. With the quarterback offering no rushing-TD threat, Gretch sees an environment ripe for another 100-plus-catch campaign and even hinted Waddle could challenge for the league lead in receptions, making him a priority in both best-ball and traditional PPR formats.

Davis Mattek said Kayshon Boutte is the exact kind of late-round swing that can win best-ball tournaments. Mattek is drafting him every time he slips to the 18th because he believes Boutte can overtake Kyle Williams on the depth chart and stay in the starting lineup all season. The upside call is rooted in three points Mattek repeated on the stream: (1) Boutte was a five-star recruit, so the talent pedigree is real even if the public ‘forgot’; (2) reports out of camp say Boutte already has on-field chemistry with his quarterback; and (3) at a near-free ADP Mattek is comfortable holding 8 % portfolio exposure since the downside is simply cutting an 18th-rounder while the ceiling is every-week starter production.

Mattek admitted he’s re-entering the ‘fade Tyreek’ camp after Tua Tagovailoa publicly said “a lot of work needs to be done” to repair his relationship with Hill. Mattek calls that quote ‘crazy to just be out in the world’ and says the off-field tension, plus earlier concerns he had already expressed, is enough to push Hill back behind ADP in his current Best Ball rankings. While he concedes Hill remains an elite talent, the quarterback-receiver friction introduces downside he’s no longer comfortable paying a premium for.

Ian Hartitz said De'Von Achane remains worthy of an early-to-mid second-round selection even after Mike McDaniel admitted the running back could be out “days or weeks” with a lower-body soft-tissue issue. Hartitz reminded listeners that Achane played all 17 games last season, gutting through a Week-1 high-ankle sprain and still popping for fantasy points. Because injuries will inevitably find every roster, Hartitz refuses to stamp Achane with a do-not-draft tag; he simply uses the injury as a tiebreaker. If Achane, Derrick Henry or Ashton Jeanty are on the board at the same price, Hartitz will lean toward the healthier option, but he is not moving Achane outside the top 20 overall.

Chris Allen urged drafters to scoop up Jaylen Waddle at his 73.9 ADP, arguing last year’s two-TD, injury-plagued season hides a clear path back to top-12 production. Waddle opened 2024 with 109 yards on just a 13.9 % target share, then watched QB and personal injuries sink the offense, playing five games under 80 % snaps and missing Weeks 16-17 with a knee strain. Allen noted his slot rate cratered to 22.5 % while his aDOT climbed to 10.3, forcing tougher perimeter routes while banged up. With Waddle healthy, Tua Tagovailoa upright, Mike McDaniel’s middle-field YAC scheme humming, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine signed to keep Waddle inside, Allen expects the Dolphins to return to the concentrated passing attack that once produced dual top-12 receivers. He prefers the younger, cheaper Waddle over Tyreek Hill in every draft.

Dwain McFarland said Achane checks every league-winner box you want in the second round. Snap share jumped from 42% to 62%, carries from 34% to 48%, and, most importantly, goal-line work from 23% to 70%. Despite a high-ankle sprain in Week 1, he still averaged 4.5 YPC while Raheem Mostert managed only 3.3 and Jaylen Wright 3.7. In 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center Achane exploded for 22.6 PPG. McFarland acknowledged Miami’s offensive-line worries—Brandon Thorn has them bottom-tier and PFF slots them 25th after losing Terron Armstead—but argued that Achane’s 15% target share, 61% route rate and elite burst give him a Jahmyr Gibbs-like range of outcomes at a one-round discount.

Andy Holloway pointed out that Tyreek Hill is back at practice and fully healthy, yet he continues to slide past his usual ADP in mock drafts because drafters remain nervous about the earlier hamstring scare. Holloway noted that landing Hill in the fourth round of this 10-team draft gives managers a proven first-round talent at a steep discount and urged listeners not to let lingering injury hesitation keep them from scooping up the value.

JSU advocated grabbing Samson Evans or Jerome Ford in the late rounds because the Browns backfield is wide open. He doubts Quinshon Judkins even sees the field this season due to ongoing legal issues and the time he has missed in camp. If Judkins remains sidelined, Evans and Ford would split the workload, and whichever player seizes goal-line duties could emerge as an every-week starter despite costing virtually nothing at the draft table.

Ian Hartitz placed De'Von Achane at RB4 and ninth overall, saying the blend of Achane’s rookie-year 7.8 yards per carry and last season’s league-leading receiving production could yield the overall RB1. Hartitz acknowledged the stark with- and-without-Tua splits but maintained that coach Mike McDaniel maximizes explosive plays when Tua is healthy. Achane’s elite efficiency, full-time passing-game role, and an offense that finished top-five in points per drive underpin the aggressive ranking. Hartitz views Achane as the first back in the "has a path to finish as fantasy’s RB1" tier after Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall.