Chris Raybon said Devin Neal is the perfect Round-17 moonshot because the entire Saints backfield could flip at any moment. Neal averaged 1,500 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Kansas, then went in Round 6 to a brand-new, offense-first coaching staff led by Kevin Moore. Alvin Kamara turns 30, is entering Year 9, and has not played a full season since his rookie year. Behind him are question marks—Kendre Miller never earned the old regime’s trust and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was only a depth signing. Raybon believes Moore may try to shorten games with a run-heavy approach; if that happens, Neal’s three-down skill set gives him a real chance to grab the early-down and passing-game work. He added that the roster could be bad enough for New Orleans to “shut Kamara down” late, creating a fantasy-playoff scenario where Neal is the every-snap back in tank mode. Raybon framed the pick as exactly the kind of unknown-ceiling swing managers should take once ADP no longer matters in best-ball drafts.

Steph Miller argued that Alvin Kamara is the safer Best-Ball Mania pick than teammate Chris Olave even though they are drafted in the same neighborhood. Her case: Kendre Miller has yet to stay healthy long enough to threaten real touches, and the viral training-camp clip of Jamaal Williams looking "slow as molasses" suggests Williams may remain an early-down afterthought. Steph acknowledged the Saints’ offense could be "comically bad," but pointed out Kamara has still averaged 16.2 PPR points in games where he sees at least five targets— a threshold he has cleared in 77 percent of his starts the past two seasons. Because volume is more bankable at running back than wide receiver on talent-poor offenses, Steph is "far more confident Kamara gets his points" and is stacking him aggressively in the sixth and early seventh rounds while letting the field chase Olave’s less predictable spike weeks.

Greg Brainos said Juwan Johnson is his favorite final-round tight end to round out two-TE builds. He cited glowing comments from new head coach Kellen Moore, who emphasized Johnson’s ability to stretch the seam and compared his role to Dalton Schultz’s in Dallas—a player who saw 89 and 104 targets in Moore’s offense. Brainos expects Johnson to be featured on vertical and chunk-play concepts, giving him rare 20-point spike potential for a player routinely available in the 17th or 18th round. With most drafters chasing dusty veterans there, Brainos thinks Johnson’s blend of athleticism (4.58 forty at 230 lbs.) and a TE-friendly scheme makes him a cheap bet to finish top-12 in best-ball scoring weeks once or twice—exactly what he wants from a TE3.

Pat Fitzmaurice recommended that contending teams built around veterans—he cited a roster with Derrick Henry, Mike Evans and Saquon Barkley—should gamble on Chris Olave. Fitzmaurice acknowledged the "scary" concussion history but argued the payoff is manageable because those lineups really just need Olave to survive the final six to eight games. If he stays upright, his elite separation skills and 2.42 yards per route run could single-handedly swing playoff matchups. Conversely, Fitzmaurice said true juggernauts (e.g., teams with Ja'Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson) should pass because they gain little from the added variance. The upshot: aging contenders can buy Olave at a discount and let his ceiling carry them through one more championship push.

Rich Cooling encouraged managers who are a step below the league favorites to trade for Chris Olave despite his concussion red flags. Cooling emphasized that Olave’s value has been "depleted" even though his range of outcomes still includes a top-five wide receiver season—he already owns a 28% target share and showed week-winning spike weeks in 2023. Because elite teams don’t need to gamble, Cooling said lesser contenders must lean into variance, and landing Olave at a WR2 price is the type of risk that can flip playoff odds without surrendering multiple first-round picks.

JSU said he is completely avoiding Taysom Hill in 2025 Best Ball drafts. Hill delivered a 47-point eruption last season and routinely went in the 130-to-160 ADP range, but JSU emphasized that the Swiss-army-knife tight end is now dealing with an ACL issue and has simply "got to be over" at some point. The combination of injury concerns, age, and an uncertain role makes Hill too volatile even at a discounted price. JSU would rather spend his late-round tight-end capital on healthier players with clearer paths to targets instead of chasing last year’s outlier week.

Andrew Novak urged bettors to pound the New Orleans Saints UNDER on season-win totals and sprinkle them in the "fewest wins" market. He said his podcast co-host Evan projected only two victories after running the schedule, a gap Novak called the largest delta he had seen versus posted lines. Novak argued the roster looks historically bad on both lines of scrimmage, Derek Carr’s cap hit prevents meaningful upgrades, and Dennis Allen’s conservative tendencies invite close-game variance to flip against them. With the NFC South slightly improved and a tougher AFC crossover draw, Novak believes the Saints could bottom out quickly, making plus-money alt-unders an attractive EV play.

Justin Herzig called Chris Olave one of the biggest bargains on the board, regularly sliding into the 60s despite a second-round pedigree last year. He emphasized that new play-caller Kellen Moore has already said publicly he wants Olave featured all over the formation, and Moore’s track record in Dallas suggests he will actually do it (CeeDee Lamb averaged a 29% target share under Moore). Herzig also circled the Saints’ six games against the NFC South’s suspect secondaries as a built-in schedule boost. While the wideout’s concussion history scares some drafters, Herzig treats those as random rather than chronic, noting Olave has never dealt with lower-body issues that sap explosiveness. Given his proven separation skills (top-10 in Reception Perception success rate) and a likely uptick in passing volume, Herzig is happy to bet Olave returns WR2 numbers at a WR3 price and still owns top-10 seasonal upside if everything clicks.

Erik Beimfohr grudgingly endorsed Alvin Kamara as a “good pick in the sixth” on Underdog. Kamara quietly ranked RB8 in total half-PPR points last season even after missing four games, thanks to 17.7 touches and 5.9 high-value receptions per outing. Beimfohr acknowledged worries about new quarterback Tyler Shough replacing Derek Carr, but argued that Kamara’s role— 53 % team red-zone share and a 15-carry, 4-target weekly workload— should survive any competency downgrade. In half-PPR formats those rush attempts and goal-line looks carry more weight than the receptions he might lose. At a sixth-round price you are paying for a mid-RB2 yet getting realistic RB1 weekly ceilings without sacrificing elite early-round wide-receiver equity. Beimfohr’s bottom line: click the “gross” veteran, bank efficient yardage-plus-touchdown production, and let everyone else chase uncertain rookie upside at the same cost.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Juwan Johnson is an ideal final-round tight-end flier in Underdog’s Pug and Sprint rooms. Pat double-checked snap logs and confirmed Foster Moreau was still playing 60–70 percent of the snaps last year while battling through injury, yet Johnson maintained a healthy route rate and continued to be the Saints’ primary red-zone option. With Moreau reportedly "still recovering" and not practicing in early OTAs, Pat expects Johnson’s route share to tick up at exactly the point fantasy managers need single-week touchdown spikes. The half-point-PPR scoring further amplifies Johnson’s end-zone equity, making him a better bet than the "gross" late-round wide receivers currently on the board. Pat likes locking Johnson in as a TE3 on three-tight-end builds, especially on rosters that already feature Alvin Kamara or other New Orleans pieces for correlated playoff upside.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound urged viewers to pump the brakes on Kendre Miller despite the positive minicamp blurbs floating around Saints twitter. He warned that Alvin Kamara is healthy, Jamaal Williams is still penciled in for short-yardage work, and New Orleans added more competition (he referenced "Neil" vying for touches) that will further muddy early-down snaps. Miller logged only 41 touches as a rookie and still has not shown the pass-pro chops to earn passing-down reps. Pat thinks the best-case scenario is a rotational role that caps Miller’s ceiling at the exact time Underdog’s Sprint needs 25-plus-point spike weeks. In his words, “caution, caution, caution” on chasing last year’s preseason crush when the path to volume is now narrower than ever.

Ian Hartitz called Chris Olave a screaming value at current round-7 ADP, arguing that quarterback worries are already more than baked in. Hartitz cited a recent Coach Speak Index quote from new head coach Kellen Moore—“his ability to move around and line up in a number of positions will be a huge advantage for us”—as evidence Olave will be deployed all over the formation. Hartitz compared the situation to Garrett Wilson, noting Wilson still goes in round 3 with similar QB uncertainty while Olave actually edges him in yards per route run. Olave commanded a 27 % target share when healthy last year and finished top-five in yards per route run on intermediate routes despite two concussions and Derek Carr’s erratic accuracy. Moore has historically ranked top-10 in early-down pass rate, and with no proven WR2 in New Orleans, Hartitz projected 155-plus targets and a top-12 finish, making Olave a priority buy in Best Ball Mania drafts.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Alvin Kamara a smash at his current 63.0 ADP, saying, "it’s like we learned nothing from last year." He pointed to Kamara’s steady 2023 workload and the Saints’ willingness to restructure his deal as proof the team still intends to feature him. Pat also noted New Orleans passed on drafting serious backfield competition, leaving only Kendrick Miller’s health concerns and journeyman depth behind Kamara. Because the discounted price lets drafters build creative anchor-RB or zero-RB structures, Kamara has become one of Pat’s most-rostered players.

Chris Raybon expects second-round pick Tyler Shough to win the Saints’ three-way quarterback competition and start Week 1. Shough is the oldest QB in this rookie class and was widely labeled the most pro-ready passer behind Cam Ward, a profile Raybon says teams do not sit on the bench. Moore has already praised Shough pre-snap command, hinting the offense will borrow Moore’s trademark up-tempo approach that produced top-10 situation-neutral pace with both Dallas and the Chargers. While Raybon conceded Shough may struggle to "maximize" the playbook immediately, the volume alone (Moore offenses have averaged 37.8 passes per game) places Shough on the superflex radar and makes him a viable QB3 stash in best-ball tournaments where every late spike matters.

Chris Raybon pointed out that Taysom Hill’s late-season knee surgery is expected to sideline him for all of 2024, removing the gadget QB who siphoned nine red-zone carries and six touchdowns from Alvin Kamara last year. With Hill gone and Moore historically preferring traditional red-zone concepts (his Dallas units ranked bottom-six in QB rush attempts inside the five), Raybon projects Kamara’s share of goal-line touches to jump from 38 % to roughly 65 %. Even if the overall offense is volatile, that touchdown infusion vaults Kamara back into mid-RB2 territory for season-long leagues and gives him weekly ceiling in best-ball formats where TD variance is king.

Sean Koerner urged caution on Chris Olave after noting two major red flags. First, credible beat‐writers have repeated that Kellen Moore is open to moving Olave for draft capital, creating either a mid-summer holdout or an unfamiliar playbook if he’s dealt. Second, Olave has already suffered three documented concussions; Koerner worries a fourth could trigger an IR stint under the league’s stricter 2024 protocols. The upside is obvious—Moore historically force-feeds his No. 1 wideout from the slot (Keenan Allen and DeVonta Smith both logged 30-plus percent slot rates and 27-plus percent target shares under Moore). But with a rookie quarterback (Tyler Shuck) likely starting and Olave’s availability shaky, Koerner dropped him to the bottom of his WR2 tier and advised diversifying with steadier options in Rounds 3-4 of best-ball or redraft leagues.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound preferred Alvin Kamara to David Montgomery when both backs were on the board in the mid-70s, calling Kamara a "wheels-up" click. He argued the Saints quietly fortified their offensive line this offseason and that Kamara already silenced age concerns by finishing as RB8 in points per game after returning from his three-game suspension last year. Kamara averaged 6.5 targets and 4.5 red-zone touches per contest in 2023, a usage profile Pat expects to remain intact given the lack of real backfield competition. Because the veteran is easy to stack with later New Orleans or Atlanta bring-backs and benefits from a dome schedule in Weeks 16-17, Pat believes Kamara should be going at least half a round earlier and is a priority RB2 in Best Ball Mania rooms.

Pete Overzet said Tyler Shough is firmly draftable in Rounds 17–18 because the path to season-long starts is clearer than the market thinks. New Orleans enters camp with only journeyman Derek Carr threatening Shough, and a new coaching staff has no loyalty to the veteran. Overzet emphasized that Shough’s collegiate tape shows functional mobility and a willingness to push the ball, traits that pair nicely with speedy wideouts Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. In a late-round QB landscape littered with job-security landmines, Shough provides both opportunity and correlation outs: a full-season takeover would unlock weekly 3-TD potential, while even spot starts still correlate with cheap Saints pass-catchers already going in the double digits. His advice: skip the dusty WR6 darts and use an 18th-round pick on Shough anywhere you need a third quarterback.

Pete Overzet celebrated landing Rashid Shaheed at straight ADP, calling it the perfect bring-back for his Tampa Bay stack. Shaheed’s 16.8-yard aDOT and 2.62 yards per route versus zone coverage give him week-winning volatility—exactly what you want opposite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in potential late-season NFC South shootouts. Overzet added that New Orleans faces Tampa in Weeks 16 and 17, so the correlated upside directly overlaps the Best Ball Mania playoff window. With divisional familiarity, dome weather, and virtually no competition for deep targets behind Chris Olave, Shaheed offers “cheap access to 20-point bombs” while costing only a late-10th/early-11th pick.

Pete Overzet pushed back on the idea that Alvin Kamara’s price will rise once summer drafts heat up. He argued there is no catalyst—no rookie hype piece, no depth-chart shake-up—that would spark enthusiasm the way a big camp report might for a younger back. In fact, he sees multiple reasons for Kamara to slip: talk of Derek Carr stepping away and the possibility of 26-year-old rookie Tyler Shough starting at quarterback dampen the overall offensive outlook. Unless beat writers start raving about Shough peppering Kamara with two-yard check-downs all camp, Overzet expects the veteran to drift a round or two cheaper. His advice: stay patient or remain underweight until that discount materializes.

Billy Jones advised passing on Saints best-ball stacks built around Tyler Shough. He believes the New Orleans quarterback room will be a revolving door, predicting multiple starter changes similar to last year’s Giants mess but 'even more gross.' Although Shough could win the Week 1 job, Billy doubts he holds it for long and is unwilling to burn an 18th-round pick plus another late quarterback just to cover that volatility. He labeled Shough a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency selection only if drafters whiff entirely on earlier QB plans.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said he is off Kendre Miller entirely after back-to-back injury-marred seasons and virtually no production when healthy. Miller has missed 10 games in two years, and even in his limited action he logged just a single explosive play (20-plus yards) on 41 touches. Pat contrasted that with rookie Devin Neal—who owns a 91st-percentile breakaway-run rate—and argued that the Saints drafting another back is a sign their coaching staff has already lost faith. He now caps his Miller exposure at 0% and recommends reallocating those late-round clicks to higher-upside rookies like Quinshon Judkins or Devin Neal.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound prefers clicking Alvin Kamara every time he slips past Chuba Hubbard in the RB40 range. He noted Hubbard’s path got muddier after Carolina added both rookie Rico Dowdle and pass-down specialist Trevor Etienne, while Kamara’s role and third-down usage in New Orleans remain intact. Because Kamara consistently comes off the board a few picks later, Pat views him as the "easy value" in that pocket and expects his half-PPR floor to outpace Hubbard’s even if the Panthers back keeps nominal starter status.

Davis Mattek flagged Rashid Shaheed as one of the biggest bargains still lingering in the triple-digit picks. He cited Mike Clay’s early projections that peg Shaheed and Chris Olave both around 950 receiving yards, yet the market prices Olave in Round 2 while Shaheed slips into the 11th. Mattek reminded listeners Shaheed sat as the WR8 overall through Week 7 last year before his quad injury and noted the Saints never replaced his field-stretching role in free agency. With Derek Carr’s ADOT climbing when Shaheed is healthy, Mattek expects multiple 20-point spike weeks and calls him ‘cheap Darnell Mooney with actual ceiling.’ He is scooping every sub-ADP share in Eliminator drafts where one long TD can flip a head-to-head matchup.

Danny Kanell predicted second-rounder Tyler Shough will be the NEXT rookie quarterback to start an NFL game (after Cam Ward). He cited Derek Carr’s still-murky shoulder recovery, a reworked contract that suggests the veteran’s days are numbered, and a 6.5 Vegas win total that hints the Saints will pivot to evaluation mode. Shough owns NFL-caliber arm strength and mobility but limited college tape because of injuries, so New Orleans needs to see him in live reps before deciding whether to chase Arch Manning in the 2026 draft. Kanell expects that calculus to push Shough onto the field early—likely before Will Howard in Pittsburgh or Jaxson Dart in New York—making Shuck a sneaky late-round dart throw in dynasty and Superflex redrafts and an early "first rookie to start" prop target.

Hayden Winks called Rashid Shaheed one of the cleanest wide-receiver buys on the board because the market’s refusal to draft Saints quarterbacks is holding Shaheed’s ADP down. Winks noted the speedster averaged 2.28 yards per route in his six fully healthy games last year, returned from a meniscus repair early enough that 2024 performance should be unaffected, and faces little target competition beyond Chris Olave. Because no one is stacking Derek Carr or Spencer Rattler, Shaheed does not get the usual ADP push that comes with correlated QB picks, letting drafters scoop a proven deep-threat tied to a top-three red-zone TD rate offense at a WR50-ish cost. Winks likes clicking Shaheed as a one-off on teams that need upside without paying the stacking tax, projecting another 17-18% target share with multiple 25-point spike weeks in his range of outcomes.

Pete Overzet called Chris Olave a smash at pick 66, stressing that drafters happily paid a second-round tax on the same player the last two summers. Olave still managed a 27 percent target share and 2.23 yards per route while surviving Derek Carr’s uneven debut season, proving he can create fantasy production "in spite of" the quarterback. Overzet said the only real risk is the Saints offense completely collapsing, but even a league-average unit would unlock weekly WR1 spike-weeks. He is comfortable selecting Olave ahead of names like Matthew Golden, Chris Godwin and Debo Samuel, framing the current sixth-round price as "catch-up fuel" for best-ball rooms where you start RB-heavy.

Pat Kerrane argued Alvin Kamara is mis-priced at his 63 ADP, calling him the perfect “running-back chaperone” for Best Ball rooms. Devin Neal was only a fifth-round pick and is “probably not touching Kamara’s role to begin the season,” while new coordinator Kellen Moore historically funnels targets to backs—giving Kamara a cushy check-down runway whether Tyler Shough or Derek Carr is under center. Kerrane expects projection models to slot Kamara as RB9 in Weeks 1–2 and sees little risk the Saints alter that usage early. He loves pairing Kamara at the 5/6 turn with explosive rookies such as R.J. Harvey or TreVeyon Henderson, letting the veteran bank 15-point floors until the kids pop. Even though he refuses to rank Kamara ahead of consensus to avoid “screenshot shaming,” Kerrane admitted he is matching ADP precisely because the role screams value—especially when the alternative picks are fringe WR3s. His bottom line: draft Kamara as an early-season anchor and ride the rookie upside wave behind him.

Pat Kerrane said dynasty managers are burying Tyler Shough far too deep at 198th overall and argued the rookie deserves consideration inside the top-100. Kerrane’s age-contract formula shows any quarterback who is a viable late-round best-ball pick because he projects to start immediately should sit roughly 100th in dynasty; Shough is currently 34 spots below that benchmark. He conceded the Saints’ porous offensive line and Shough’s immobility raise sack-and-turnover risk, but pointed to 40th-overall draft capital, Kellen Moore’s quarterback-friendly scheme, and a supporting cast of Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Alvin Kamara as more than enough to generate QB2 fantasy lines. The real edge, Kerrane said, is insulation against the inevitable in-season desperation tax—rostering Shough now prevents paying a future second when injuries wipe out your QB2. At 25 years old with an almost guaranteed season of "free starts," Kerrane is happily scooping Shough anywhere after pick 110 and treating him as a roster-construction safety net with upside for profit if he simply posts Kenny-Pickett-level spike weeks.

Jakob Sanderson defended ranking Tyler Shough inside his top-200 dynasty assets, hanging his hat on Shough’s 40th-overall draft capital. Sanderson expects the Saints to treat 2025 as a "soft tank" season: Derek Carr’s restructured deal eats the cap, so the front office will start Shough to see if their 0.7 % franchise-QB lottery ticket cashes while simultaneously positioning themselves for the 2026 class (D.J. Uiagalelei, Arch Manning, Walker Howard). Even if Shough flames out, a full season of starts—Mac Jones 2021 style—has real value in Superflex, where a warm-bodied QB routinely demands a mid-second rookie pick in-season. Saints OC Klint Kubiak runs play-action-heavy concepts that simplify reads, which Sanderson believes gives Shough a realistic path to 220-yard, 1-TD passing lines plus 20–25 bonus rushing yards most weeks. At his current ADP (round 17 of startups), Sanderson views Shough as a no-risk swing whose floor is a one-year flip for future second-round equity.

Pat Kerrane pushed back on the Olave fear, calling him a screaming buy in both best ball and dynasty. Kerrane pointed to Olave’s career-long underlying juice—top-15 in targets per route run and yards per route run since entering the league—plus the luxury of playing half his games in a dome. He believes a pocket passer like Shuck (or even Rattler if things go south) will still funnel volume to the star wide-out, and emphasized that elite peripherals plus a controlled environment usually translate to spike weeks regardless of who is under center. With market sentiment cooling, Kerrane is actively offering late-first-round rookie picks or WR3 types to secure Olave shares before the price rebounds.

Davis Mattek dropped Chris Olave all the way to 75th overall in his dynasty ranks and said managers should treat the wide-out as a sell or at least a stay-away at current prices. Mattek sees three red flags: (1) quarterback chaos—he expects 40th-overall rookie Tyler Shuck to start in 2025 with Spencer Rattler waiting in the wings, leaving Olave’s 2026 passer totally up in the air; (2) five documented concussions since 2020, a "black-marble" tail-risk that could send his dynasty stock to zero with one more head injury; and (3) Mattek never thought Olave was an alpha to begin with, so he is more willing to nuke the profile now that the situation has deteriorated. Given those factors, Mattek would trade Olave for any top-15 rookie pick or pivot to safer wide receivers in the same tier.

Eric Luttrell was stunned to land Alvin Kamara in the middle of Round 6, calling it the “anti-fragile veteran build cheat code.” The Saints invested a first-rounder in left tackle Taliese Fuaga and brought back center Erik McCoy healthy, moves Eric believes push the unit into top-10 run-blocking territory. Despite a down 2023, Kamara still averaged 5.3 receptions and 16.4 half-PPR points per game— production normally priced two full rounds higher. New Orleans added zero backfield competition beyond UDFA depth, and OC Klint Kubiak has already told local media he wants more pre-snap motion and outside-zone looks, concepts that historically juice Kamara’s yards-before-contact. Luttrell’s take: grab the discount now, bank a locked 275-touch workload, and enjoy the roster-construction flexibility a sixth-round RB1 affords in Underdog’s WR-heavy rooms.

Jason Moore called his shot that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will open 2025 as Alvin Kamara’s primary backup, beating out oft-injured Kendre Miller. Moore highlighted CEH’s 1,754 career rushing yards and 17 touchdowns—production Miller has yet to sniff—plus the Saints’ heavy use of two-back rotations under new OC Kellen Moore (29 % RB target share in Dallas, 26 % in L.A.). With Kamara entering his age-30 season on a declining 3.8 yards per carry, Moore sees a plausible path to 8-10 weekly touches for Edwards-Helaire and league-winning upside if Kamara misses time. He recommended scooping CEH in the final rounds of season-long and best-ball drafts before preseason hype spikes his ADP.

Coakley grabbed Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the 18th round and reminded chat that "he’s actually going to have a role" despite fantasy Twitter’s collective eye-roll. Even at 30, MVS remains one of the league’s few true field-stretchers, and the Saints’ receiver room lacks an established deep threat behind Chris Olave. Coakley likes locking in guaranteed snap share and occasional long-ball spike weeks at a near-free price in cumulative best-ball formats where every random 60-yard touchdown moves the needle.

Pat Kerrane closed the mock by snagging Devin Neal as a replay of last year’s Kendre Miller gamble. Kamara has not finished a full season since 2017, and Neal brings the same burst-plus-receiving profile that once powered the veteran to top-five finishes. Kerrane believes even a half-season glimpse of Neal as lead back would send his dynasty value soaring, given the Saints’ zone-heavy run scheme and Derek Carr’s check-down tendencies. With Miller’s development stalled and Jamaal Williams a cap-casualty candidate, Neal is an inexpensive way to corner the Saints’ future backfield while chasing a 2024 league-winning stretch run if Kamara breaks down again.

Pat Kerrane selected Tyler Shough in Round 3 of the Superflex mock and argued the early-second-round pick is a value because the Saints can finally escape Derek Carr’s contract after 2024, saving cap space by eating the remaining money over two seasons. Kerrane noted Dane Brugler called Shuck the most impressive thrower at the Senior Bowl and the NFL has viewed him as a top-tier prospect since the pre-draft process. With salary-cap relief, rookie-deal cost certainty, and a front office seemingly ready to reset at quarterback, Kerrane believes Shuck "has to screw up not to be their starter in 2026." In Superflex formats where starting QBs are gold, he views Shuck as a sneaky safe bet whose price will spike the moment New Orleans cuts Carr.

Rich Rebar pushed back on the Tyler Shough optimism, stressing that a quarterback who offers zero rushing threatens both real-life and fantasy success in today’s league. Outside of Matthew Stafford, Rebar argued no pure pocket passer has broken through recently, and even Jared Goff had No. 1 overall draft capital insulating him. Shuck profiles as a complete non-factor on the ground—"if he finishes with positive rushing yards it will be amazing"—meaning he must throw 30-plus touchdowns annually to matter in fantasy. Rebar cited the rapid NFL eject button on similar statues like Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett as warning signs. Without top-tier arm talent or mobility, Shuck’s path to sticking as a starter is razor-thin, making him a high-risk dynasty pick despite the draft capital.

Koerner flagged 26-year-old Tyler Shuck as one of the draft’s sneakiest landings. With Derek Carr nursing an uncertain shoulder and the Saints potentially eyeing an expensive divorce, Koerner believes Shuck could stumble into double-digit starts despite going 4th round. The former Texas Tech passer is strictly pocket-based, so he profiles as a QB3 streaming option rather than a league-winner, but volume alone could make him a useful injury-bid in superflex or deep best-ball builds.

Evan Abrams called the Saints’ decision to grab Louisville quarterback Tyrus Chuck at pick 40 a reach that carries little Year-1 fantasy upside. Abrams noted that New Orleans already invested its first-rounder in LT Taliese Banks, so draft capital was desperately needed elsewhere on a roster he labeled “full of holes.” With Derek Carr entrenched as the starter and both Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener still on rookie deals, Abrams expects Chuck to open 2024 as the QB3 and see only package snaps at best. He advised dynasty managers not to treat Chuck as an immediate successor, projecting a minimum one-to-two-year apprenticeship. For season-long formats he recommended ignoring the rookie entirely unless Carr suffers a long-term injury, and he warned bettors against chasing Offensive Rookie of the Year numbers shorter than 80-1 given the bleak path to playing time.

Ryan Wilson said Arch Manning would be the No. 1 overall selection by the New Orleans Saints in the 2026 NFL Draft and called the pairing “a lay-up.” Wilson argued the Saints will be desperate for a franchise quarterback after another down season, and the Manning family legacy makes the marketing fit obvious. On-field, Wilson emphasized that Arch is “insanely athletic” in ways Peyton and Eli never were, already tipping the scales at roughly 6-4/215 with verified sub-4.7 speed. He flashed in relief of Quinn Ewers last year, showing pocket poise and a big arm that can push the ball vertically. Wilson added that scouts are encouraged by his ability to win outside structure and his 70-percent practice-rep completion rate from spring reports. If Manning posts a solid first season as Texas’ full-time starter and declares, Wilson believes bettors should expect him to open as the odds-on favorite in draft-prop markets to go No. 1.

Andy Holloway said he expects Shedeur Sanders to be the Saints’ first-round selection, probably at pick 9 but possibly after a small trade-back. Holloway called New Orleans “too desperate” at quarterback to roll with an aging, post-surgery Derek Carr after the offense finished bottom-eight in EPA per drop-back last season. He highlighted that GM Mickey Loomis has already restructured eight veteran contracts to free cap space for a rookie-scale passer and noted that the Saints have met with Sanders twice since the combine. Holloway believes Sanders’ 71 percent adjusted completion rate, 3,230 yards and 27 TDs in 11 games at Colorado fit OC Klint Kubiak’s quick-game, play-action system. Dynasty managers should view Sanders as an instant superflex QB2 who gets to throw to Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Alvin Kamara in a dome for at least eight games a year.

Evan Abrams said he bypassed the stale +230 “Top-10” price on Tetairoa McMillan and instead grabbed two exact-team tickets: New Orleans to take McMillan at No. 9 at 18-to-1 and whichever club ultimately controls pick No. 10 at 25-to-1. Abrams noted that mocks are split—some analysts push the Arizona wideout outside Round 1 while others label him the draft’s best size-speed athlete—creating a volatile market the Saints could exploit if the skill-position run starts early. New Orleans still lacks a true X receiver and has shown interest in vertical threats during the pre-draft process. Abrams believes McMillan’s 6-4 frame and 4.45 forty fit Derek Carr’s down-field tendencies, and the 18-to-1 / 25-to-1 numbers understate what he pegs as roughly a 7-8 % probability the Saints (or the team at 10 after a potential trade) pulls the trigger.

Chris Raybon followed his Giants-Sanders call by taking the Saints ‘To Draft Jaxson Dart’ at +250. League chatter has New Orleans brass “in love” with the Ole Miss quarterback’s aggressive intermediate accuracy, a trait Pete Carmichael’s play-action heavy system demands. With Derek Carr’s contract becoming escapable after 2025, the Saints can afford to red-shirt Dart for a year while leveraging his cost-controlled window later. Raybon believes the Saints view him as a better schematic fit than Sanders, explaining why they have not been linked to Colorado’s passer despite thorough quarterback homework. He sets the probability north of 35%, making +250 attractive.

Connor Allen recommended grabbing Tyler Warren at +800 to be the exact No. 9 pick. Allen believes the market is pricing the slot incorrectly because bookmakers have made Shedeur Sanders the favorite for New Orleans, yet every report he has seen says the Saints front office is not enamored with Sanders. If they pass on a quarterback, Warren—who Allen views as a near‑lock to go somewhere in the top‑10 thanks to his elite size/speed profile and unique "Kittle‑meets‑Taysom Hill" versatility—immediately becomes the cleanest fit on the board. Allen added that defensive line is the only other realistic alternative, so the number of viable outcomes is small, making the 8‑1 price a worthwhile long‑shot investment.

Jones mocked Kelvin Banks Jr. to New Orleans at No. 9 and argued the organization will pass on Shedeur Sanders because the offensive line is in crisis mode. Trevor Penning has struggled, Ryan Ramczyk just retired, and Derek Carr absorbed 55 sacks last season. Banks graded as the cleanest pass‑pro tackle on several NFC scouting boards and is viewed as a plug‑and‑play left tackle with 36‑inch reach and SEC tape versus first‑round edges. Ryan Wilson echoed the sentiment, saying the Saints can circle back for a quarterback on Day 2 or via a late Round‑1 trade‑up. Jones advised bettors to smash the +125 price on "Saints first drafted position: Offensive Line" before that market moves.

Thor Nystrom projected Shedeur Sanders to the Saints at pick No.9, calling him both the top quarterback and the best overall prospect still on the board. Nystrom dismissed the narrative that New Orleans is out on Sanders simply because the club skipped his pro day, noting teams often disguise true targets to avoid tipping their hand. He cited multiple league sources who insist Dennis Allen loves Sanders’ timing‑route accuracy and quick processing for his West Coast scheme. Draft books currently list Sanders’ position line at 8.5 with the over juiced to –330; Thor considers that price still playable given the limited QB demand in the top eight and New Orleans’ “desperate” long‑term need. He encouraged bettors to pair the Over 8.5 with team‑to‑draft props on the Saints while odds remain in double digits.

Jason La Confora urged listeners to ignore the recent drift to +110 and still back quarterback as the Saints’ first‑drafted position, because he is convinced New Orleans will take Shedeur Sanders ninth overall. La Confora argued Mickey Loomis cannot run a "faceless, boring" operation much longer— the franchise needs a marketable signal‑caller with Derek Carr both injured and expensive. He pointed to Denver’s success handing Sean Payton a maligned college QB (Bo Nix) as proof front offices will ignore Twitter scouting reports. La Confora played the prop at +1100 in March and still believes Sanders is the clear QB2 in this class, easily beating out Spencer Rattler. Even if Sanders red‑shirts behind Carr, the pick sells hope and resets the cap, making quarterback the highest‑EV wager on the Saints’ menu.

Emery Hunt said bettors should grab the +175 to +200 range on an offensive lineman being the Saints’ first‑round selection. Hunt noted that Trevor Penning has been a bust at left tackle and All‑Pro right tackle Ryan Ramczyk just retired, leaving two gaping holes up front. He added that new OC Kellen Moore comes from Philly and Dallas— two systems that invest heavily in protection— and Mickey Loomis has taken a trenches player in five of the past six first rounds. Because Spencer Rattler has earned credible NFL backup buzz, Hunt does not expect New Orleans to force a quarterback. In his view, Calvin Banks or Donovan Jackson fits perfectly at pick 9, making OL the value side of this position prop.

Scott Smith told listeners that Penn State tight end Tyler Warren is “very much liked” inside the Saints building and would be his current betting favorite if New Orleans stays at pick 9 and passes on quarterback. Smith’s contacts say Warren checks the versatility box Pete Carmichael wants in a move‑tight end and would give Derek Carr an immediate red‑zone target. With Carolina at 8 widely mocked for edge Jalen Walker and open to trading down, Smith thinks a Bears one‑spot jump for RB Ashton Gentie could leave Warren sitting there for New Orleans. He called the 12‑to‑1 price on Warren in FanDuel’s ‘First Tight End Drafted’ or exact‑team market “too long given the inside buzz.”

Ryan Noonan urged listeners to fade the –130 price on the Saints drafting a quarterback at pick 9 and instead ‘spray the board’ on alternative position props. He rattled off DraftKings and FanDuel numbers—edge +750, corner 9‑to‑1, offensive line +950, wide receiver 12‑to‑1, running back 12‑to‑1, and tight end Tyler Warren 12‑to‑1—arguing that local intel says New Orleans is far less quarterback‑hungry than the market believes. With five positions carrying plus‑money payouts, Noonan said bettors can build a near‑risk‑free portfolio by allocating stake proportionally across two or three of them, effectively arbitraging the inflated QB vig and locking in profit if the Saints go in any other direction.