Paolo Go targeted Aaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing touchdowns at −189, stressing that while the veteran signal-caller hasn’t been vintage, his arm talent still shines when kept clean. Cincinnati’s defense ranks dead last in points allowed (33.3 per game) and total touchdowns surrendered (4.1), presenting an ideal bounce-back spot. With the Bengals unable to pressure quarterbacks consistently, Go expects Rodgers to find the end zone at least twice and views the modest prop line as a strong addition to any Week 11 betting card.

Dougherty grabbed Pittsburgh +3.5, pointing to the immediate lift from T.J. Watt’s return (New Orleans held to 186 yards and 10 points last week) and the expected reappearance of Minkah Fitzpatrick. He believes that pass rush can expose Cincinnati’s shaky protection for Joe Burrow, while the Bengals remain without Ja’Marr Chase. Historical edge: Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog and has won 13 of those games outright. Dougherty projects another field-goal finish with Pittsburgh very live on the moneyline.

Scott Kellen laid the 5.5 with Pittsburgh, calling the Bengals an average offense strapped to one of the worst defenses he’s seen in years. The Steelers own a +6 turnover margin and an above-average sack rate, while Cincinnati has produced just 17, 10, 3 and 18 points in four road games. Kellen projected 24-17 Steelers, comfortably inside the number.

Mader is tentatively on the Over 52.5 receiving yards for DK Metcalf, showing a 53.3-yard projection and 51.4% cover chance at -114. Metcalf still runs 35+ routes and commands 6-8 targets, many of them deep or intermediate isolations. Cincinnati’s outside corners have struggled with physical, vertical receivers, allowing an above-average explosive-pass rate. In a neutral-pace divisional game expecting 28-34 Steelers attempts, even modest efficiency should land Metcalf in the mid-50s. Efficiency variance or a surprise run-heavy pivot are the main outs against the bet.

Mader endorsed Over 1.5 passing TDs for Aaron Rodgers at -182, projecting 1.92 scores with a 57.2% hit rate. Rodgers has thrown two TDs in three of his last four, sees 2-4 red-zone attempts weekly and has Pittsburgh calling quick-game and isolation concepts near the goal line. Cincinnati’s defense ranks in the league’s bottom tier for red-zone pass efficiency, repeatedly giving up slants, crossers and MOF layers—Rodgers’ bread-and-butter. Risk centers on the Steelers deciding to pound it in or Cincinnati’s rush forcing conservative calls, but the volume of high-leverage throws tilts toward another two-score day.

Sannes recommended taking Calvin Austin III to record 50+ receiving yards at +220. When active, Austin owns 18.2% of total Steelers targets and a whopping 44% of their deep looks, the kind of usage that can cash an alternate line in one play. He has only hit 50 yards in two of seven games, but Sannes believes the workload points to positive regression, especially against a Bengals secondary he labeled "stanky." With spike-play ability and long odds, the analyst sees value in the alt market Sunday.

MacMillan laid 5.5 with Pittsburgh, calling Cincinnati a smoke-and-mirrors team propped up by Joe Flacco highlights. The Bengals rank 31st in Net Yards per Play overall (-1.1) and dead last on the road (-2.3), plus 28th in DVOA and 32nd in opponent EPA per play. By contrast, the Steelers still sit 13th in DVOA despite their Sunday-night flop versus the Chargers. With a clear trench and efficiency edge and a buy-low price after last week’s loss, he expects Mike Tomlin’s squad to win by at least a touchdown.

Taking Pittsburgh +3, Tafur admitted he’s been burned by the Steelers defense before but likes the matchup: the Chargers rank 29th in pressure rate allowed (40%) whenever left tackle Joe Alt is out, and T.J. Watt’s group finally regained form against the Colts. He expects the pass rush to decide the game.

Despite being burned by Pittsburgh earlier in the year, Tafur jumped back on the Steelers at +3, pointing to a glaring mismatch in the trenches. The Chargers surrender a 40% pressure rate—29th in the league—whenever rookie LT Joe Alt is out, and Tafur expects T.J. Watt and company to capitalize. With Justin Herbert likely to face heat all night, Tafur believes the three points provide plenty of cushion.

Scott Pianowski made the Steelers +3 his best bet, arguing that Pittsburgh habitually plays to the level of its opponent and therefore tends to be live as an underdog against stronger teams. With the Chargers entering Week 10 as playoff contenders, Pianowski expects Mike Tomlin’s defense to ratchet up its blitz rate and ugly the game into a one-score slog, the exact environment where Pittsburgh has thrived. He also noted that Justin Herbert’s offense has sputtered in protection-heavy matchups, giving the Steelers a clear path to hang inside the number or steal an outright win.

MacMillan grabbed +3 with Pittsburgh, citing the Chargers’ nightmare tackle situation—both starters on IR—against a front that already pressures on 22.7% of dropbacks and ranks 3rd in sacks (27). L.A. allows an NFL-high 26.5% pressure rate and its once-stingy defense has slid to 17th in DVOA, giving up 5.2 yards per play. He expects Justin Herbert to be under duress all night. Bet: Steelers +3 (-110, BetMGM).

Matt Youmans backed the Steelers +3 at home, leaning on Mike Tomlin’s track record as an underdog (19-13 straight up, 22-7-3 ATS). He admitted Pittsburgh’s 4-2 start is "smoke and mirrors" given rankings of 24th in total offense and 28th in total defense, yet argued the number already bakes in those flaws. Youmans expects the defense to bounce back after surrendering 470 yards to Cincinnati, noting Jordan Love must duplicate Joe Flacco’s 342-yard, 3-TD performance to beat them. He downplayed the Aaron Rodgers revenge narrative, pointing out the 41-year-old will see more heat from “Micah Parsons and the Packers pass rushers” while Pittsburgh has had 10 days to scheme a redemption game on that side of the ball. With the crowd behind them and Tomlin’s knack for winning ugly, Youmans called the field-goal cushion too generous.

He called the matchup dead-even: Green Bay runs better; Pittsburgh owns pass-blocking and pass-rush edges. Aaron Rodgers, now in black and gold, is "fired up" to face his old franchise, while Matt LaFleur always has the Packers ready. Given the stalemate profile, Joyner took the home Steelers +3 at confidence level 2, even though he gives Green Bay the slight outright nod.

Eric Moody recommended the Steelers money line at +150 coming off a mini-bye. He expects Pittsburgh’s defense, led by T.J. Watt, to rebound from an ‘atrocious’ Week 7 and capitalize on the emotional lift of Aaron Rodgers’ revenge angle. Moody credited the extra rest for healthier game-planning and believes defensive pressure will tilt the matchup, giving Pittsburgh a strong chance to win outright rather than just cover.

Eric Karabell grabbed the Steelers +3.5, noting this is Aaron Rodgers’ first crack at his old team. Rodgers has performed as well for Pittsburgh as Jordan Love has for Green Bay, yet the market still makes the Steelers home dogs. Karabell pointed out the Packers’ uneven recent form— squeaking past Arizona and Cincinnati, tying Dallas, and falling to Cleveland — and believes Green Bay winning by more than a field goal is unlikely. He labeled the spread a buying opportunity driven by narrative and mediocre Packer results.

Tuley slotted Pittsburgh +9 into his teaser mix. The Steelers are home dogs in the SNF spotlight, and Mike Tomlin squads typically rebound after an embarrassing defeat—last week’s 33-31 setback at Cincinnati applies. Green Bay has not replicated its Week 1 form, so teasing Pittsburgh through 3 and 7 offers solid value while still respecting the Packers’ ability to win outright.

Dimon took +165 on DK Metcalf to find the end zone, highlighting growing chemistry with Aaron Rodgers after scores in Weeks 2 and 3. He concedes Minnesota’s secondary has been 'solid so far this year' but reminds readers it ranked 28th in 2025 and allowed 24 passing TDs. Dimon expects Rodgers to keep testing a unit that still sits in the bottom half of explosive-pass metrics, projecting enough red-zone volume for Metcalf to extend his scoring streak to three straight games.

Ricky Dimon grabbed the Steelers at +120, arguing that the neutral-site trip to Dublin magnifies Pittsburgh’s edge in quarterback and coaching experience. Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin are 2-1 with their only loss coming to a Seahawks club Dimon calls 'respectable,' while Minnesota’s two wins required a late field goal against Chicago and a blowout of a Bengals roster missing several starters. With J.J. McCarthy sidelined, Carson Wentz gets the call for the Vikings, and Dimon notes Wentz has produced 'a very, very small' sample of recent success. He believes the Steelers’ more battle-tested core is built to handle the logistical quirks of an overseas game and expects them to 'take care of business' straight up.

Austin Mock backed the Steelers at +120 for their neutral-site game in Ireland versus the Vikings. His model has already downgraded Pittsburgh for three miserable defensive outings yet still spits out a true pick'em, while the market is pricing Minnesota as the favorite. Mock trusts a buy-low spot against a Carson Wentz offense, arguing Pittsburgh is unlikely to defend any worse than it has and that +115 is the worst number he would lay.

Everett laid 1.5 with Pittsburgh despite acknowledging the Steelers defense has regressed. He simply does not view New England—led by Drake Maye—as a legitimate AFC threat. Counting on Aaron Rodgers to engineer one extra scoring drive, Everett expects Mike Tomlin’s club to notch its second narrow victory over an AFC East team in three weeks.

“These are the games Mike Tomlin just wins,” Bartel said while backing Pittsburgh –3. He was unimpressed by Seattle’s opener but noted Pittsburgh’s defense was "carved up by Fields," implying another shootout is possible if the unit does not tighten up. Because that scenario would render the current 40.5 total "completely mispriced," he is stacking the Steelers side with the Over.

MacMillan grabbed Pittsburgh –3 at +100 (BetMGM) on the theory that a healthier Aaron Rodgers is "one of the most effective QBs" based on his late-2024 surge and strong Week 1 tape. He was underwhelmed by Seattle: Sam Darnold “looked like the old Darnold” and the ground game stalled. Believing public perception overrates the Seahawks, he’s happy to fade them in a tough road spot.

The Bettor Mark bet under 39 in the Steelers’ Week 1 game, citing "a lot of injury news" that should stifle scoring. Even with Aaron Rodgers involved, he expects a sluggish contest and sees value on the low total.

Joyner backed Pittsburgh at ‑3 (confidence 6 SU, 4 ATS) because Arthur Smith now has the personnel his playbook demands: Aaron Rodgers, ninth in stretch-vertical PPG last year, plus D.K. Metcalf outside and a Jonnu Smith/Pat Freiermuth tight-end combo inside. The Steelers line is elite and the Kaleb Johnson-Jaylen Warren backfield gives balance. New York’s run-first blueprint with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen mirrors Detroit’s, yet quarterback Justin Fields ranked 29th or worse in PPG at every route depth. Joyner sees that aerial limitation as the deciding factor.

Ian Hanford laid Steelers –3, trusting Pittsburgh’s defensive blueprint versus Justin Fields. He cited the Steelers’ cornerback depth to bracket Garrett Wilson and linebacking speed to keep Fields contained. While acknowledging both offenses may start slowly, Hanford expects Mike Tomlin’s game-planning acumen to tilt a defensive struggle and sees a typical Steelers 17-10 style win that covers the short road number.

Tafur laid the field goal with Pittsburgh, arguing the Steelers know every Justin Fields limitation after last season’s practices and believe Mike Tomlin will dial up pressures and spies to keep him from freelancing. The Jets just lost RG Alijah Vera-Tucker to a serious arm injury, further tilting the trenches toward T.J. Watt and company.

Mason Cameron said the over 2.5 receptions at +120 for Calvin Austin III is one of his favorite Week 1 props. Cameron highlighted Austin’s torrid close to 2024—he generated a 142.8 passer rating when targeted (fifth-best in the league) and hauled in 80 percent of his contested looks—showing a well-rounded game that goes beyond pure speed. New Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers publicly praised Austin’s burst and toughness, a signal to Cameron that the veteran already trusts him. The real kicker is the matchup: Austin will run most of his routes from the slot against Jets nickel Michael Carter II, whose 47.9 PFF coverage grade ranked 68th of 72 qualifying slot corners last season. With a clear individual advantage and early chemistry with Rodgers, Cameron expects at least three catches, making the plus-money over attractive.

MacMillan laid -2.5 with Pittsburgh, saying he "can’t imagine" Justin Fields keeping the Jets competitive versus a competent opponent. He likes the Steelers’ facelift—Aaron Rodgers’ late-season bounce-back and the addition of DK Metcalf—plus trusts Mike Tomlin, who has intimate knowledge of Fields’ tendencies from their shared Steelers past. Anything under a field goal is, in his words, worth grabbing.

Sam Monson predicted that Aaron Rodgers will play at roughly last year's level rather than return to MVP form. He pointed to three red flags: rookie left tackle Broderick Jones has taken every preseason snap on Rodgers' blind side, the wide-receiver group 'is such as it is' with no clear second option, and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has never overseen an elite passing offense. Combine that shaky infrastructure with Rodgers turning 41, and Monson doubts the quarterback can overcome the environment. Fantasy managers should treat Rodgers as a low-end starter instead of chasing vintage production.

Eric Polzin recommended locking in the Steelers DST for Week 1 tournaments and cash builds. He argued New York is "intentionally trying to tank," highlighted Justin Fields’ poor camp and turnover-prone profile, and pointed out that Pittsburgh’s defense carries its usual talent edge. With Aaron Rodgers expected to manage the game on the other side and no bruising Jets run game to shorten drives, Polzin anticipates extra sack and takeaway opportunities for the Steelers at what should be a mid-tier salary.

Andy Holloway called DK Metcalf the "true" fantasy MVP for 2025 after his move to Pittsburgh to catch passes from Aaron Rodgers. Holloway highlighted how barren the Steelers’ depth chart is—Robert Woods, Calvin Austin, Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are the next men up—making Metcalf the only proven alpha. Historical volume trends back it up: 74 receivers have seen 130-plus targets over the last five seasons, and 92% of them finished top-24 (65% top-12). Metcalf’s career high is 141 targets, but Holloway projects 160–170 in Arthur Smith’s offense, noting his red-zone dominance and full-route tree. Despite that ceiling, Metcalf is slipping to the late fourth round, giving drafters a discounted WR1 profile.

Terrell Furman Jr. chose T.J. Watt at +950 for Defensive Player of the Year, stating bluntly that Pittsburgh 'literally doesn’t win' when Watt is sidelined. Furman emphasized Watt’s on/off splits—Steelers are 1-10 without him over the past three seasons—and believes voters will reward the league’s most irreplaceable defender if he logs a healthy 17 games. Furman considered Micah Parsons but stuck with Watt until injury forces him off the pick, citing the reliability of Watt’s double-digit sack baseline.

Jim Coventry urged listeners to draft DK Metcalf despite four straight 1,000-yard but non-elite seasons, arguing the Steelers’ offensive design will recreate the 2020 environment that produced Metcalf’s 1,300-yard explosion. Pittsburgh plans to deploy heavy personnel (two and even three tight ends), forcing defenses into single-high safety looks instead of the two-high shells that have capped Metcalf’s big-play upside since 2021. Coventry believes an "aging Aaron Rodgers" can still hit deep shots when play-action gives him an extra beat, and Metcalf’s large catch radius will help. With fewer safeties in the middle of the field, Coventry expects slants to turn into long gains and go-routes to face just one safety. He concluded Metcalf’s situational upgrade makes him a must-draft at current cost.

Ray Summerlin targeted the Pittsburgh Steelers as a bet to place second in the AFC North. He argued the Ravens are clear favorites, the Browns may not even be drafted in win-total contests, and the Bengals’ defense remains unimproved after a season in which Joe Burrow’s elite play still left Cincinnati short of the postseason. With somebody needing to claim the runner-up spot, Summerlin sees Pittsburgh as the value side in both division-placement and season-win markets.

Davis Mattek argued that Roman Wilson is an overlooked breakout candidate even in what is perceived as a low-volume Arthur Smith passing attack. He cited Mike Clay’s conservative projection of 562 Pittsburgh pass attempts—ample room behind DK Metcalf for another fantasy-relevant target earner. Wilson posted a 38 % dominator rating at Michigan, accounted for 21 % of the team’s 2023 touchdowns, and ran a 4.39 forty. Mattek noted Wilson’s rookie year was derailed by an ankle injury and special-teams duty, masking his upside. Calvin Austin remains a situational deep threat at 165 lbs, so Mattek envisions Wilson sliding into a Randall Cobb/James Jones hybrid role for Aaron Rodgers, giving him spike-week and waiver-wire appeal in all formats.

Tom Strachan agreed Metcalf is over-drafted, emphasizing Rodgers’ chemistry gap. He pointed out the quarterback threw a career-high rate of contested-catch balls last year despite long-standing timing with Davante Adams and two off-seasons working with Garrett Wilson. Rodgers has shared only one abbreviated summer with Metcalf after delaying his July signing to dodge OTA obligations. Strachan recalled Arthur Smith’s usage of Drake London as proof that "only game in town" alphas can disappear in this scheme. Combined with personality clashes in Pittsburgh and historical Smith target constraints, Strachan is passing on Metcalf outside of touchdown-heavy formats.

Matthew Berry said he has DK Metcalf down at WR27—seven spots below the Fantasy Life consensus—because Arthur Smith-led passing games simply do not feed a true alpha. Berry rattled off that in Smith’s four seasons running an offense (Tennessee 2019-20, Atlanta 2021-23, now Pittsburgh) no wide-out has finished higher than WR31 in total or per-game fantasy points except AJ Brown’s bomb-heavy rookie campaign. The high-water mark for targets under Smith is Drake London’s 117 in 2022; Metcalf has failed to reach that threshold twice in six pro seasons and finished outside the top-30 both times. Berry added that Mike Tomlin’s preferred 20-17, defense-first script plus Derrick-Henry-style run volume further squeezes passing volume. He is skeptical that a late-signing, 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers can quickly build chemistry after skipping OTAs, especially in AFC North winter weather. The result is a touchdown-dependent profile Berry is avoiding in season-long and best-ball drafts.

Davis Mattek endorsed Jaylen Warren over rookie Kaleb Johnson in the Steelers backfield. Warren has registered steady target shares every healthy season and excels in pass protection—traits Mattek expects Aaron Rodgers to lean on. He cited research that only 8 of 40 third-round running backs since 2011 have cracked a 50 % rush share as freshmen, underscoring Johnson’s uphill battle. Add in Arthur Smith’s history of using multiple backs and Mattek believes Warren’s receiving role gives him the far safer and cheaper fantasy profile.

Alex Selesnick said he is hammering Aaron Rodgers to finish below 23.5 season-long passing touchdowns. He would have opened the prop at 21.5–22.5 because Arthur Smith’s offenses have ranked near the bottom of the league in pass rate and passing TDs three straight years. Selesnick expects Pittsburgh to rely on its run game and defense, limiting overall drop-backs. He also questioned Rodgers’ durability at this stage of his career and called the current receiving corps—headlined by an inconsistent DK Metcalf—the weakest Rodgers has ever worked with, especially in the red-zone. Those factors give Selesnick “so many ways” for the veteran to stay under the posted total.

Alex Selesnick is under 23.5 touchdown passes for Aaron Rodgers. He stressed that Arthur Smith’s offenses have been among the league’s most run-oriented and conservative, capping passing volume and scores. Pittsburgh plans to lean on defense, shorten games, and grind clock—a script that rarely yields 24+ TDs. Selesnick also flagged durability concerns for Rodgers at this stage of his career, increasing the chance he misses games. He personally would set the line at 21–22, making 23.5 an easy fade.

Shawn Siegele argued that Pat Freiermuth’s slide into the mid-15th round is an overreaction to the "gross" perception of Pittsburgh’s offense. He noted that Freiermuth and teammate Jonnu Smith are "collapsing way below what their usage is simply going to be," yet drafters are pricing them alongside low-volume names such as Mike Gesicki and Cade Otton. Siegele’s takeaway: Freiermuth’s route participation and target involvement should be meaningfully higher than the tight ends going in his ADP range, making him a value as a TE2 who can complement an early stud and give rosters a second path to weekly upside.

Jason Moore declared DK Metcalf the best value on the board, wondering why a perennial top-15 talent is sliding to WR22 in round five. Before an MCL sprain sidelined him for Weeks 8-9 last season, Metcalf was tracking for 150 targets, 1,400 yards and seven scores. Moore expects an even larger workload after Pittsburgh traded for him, handed him four years and $132 million and paired him with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has a documented history of peppering his WR1 with 28-34 % target shares—Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and most recently Garrett Wilson all hit those levels. With no true competition beyond Pat Freiermuth and rookie Roman Wilson, Moore projects Metcalf for 28 %+ of Steelers passes and believes only injury keeps him from smashing his 141-target career high. A floor around WR18 with nine-TD upside into the top 12 makes him a must-draft in all season-long formats.

Chris Allen recommended Jaylen Warren as a mid-round depth target for managers who opened heavy RB but still need weekly FLEX stability. Warren’s timeshare with Najee Harris produced a usable floor last year—he cleared 10 PPR points in eight of his final 11 games—and his 11% target share plus 1.59 yards per route run give him standalone value even without an injury. Allen grouped Warren with Jordan Mason and Tank Bigsby, noting each back’s receiving chops and role insulation make them ideal selections to offset the inherent volatility of relying on a single early-round workhorse like Ashton Jeanty.

Dwain McFarland called Roman Wilson his preferred late-round dart among Pittsburgh receivers. The Round 3 pick ran routes on 78% of dropbacks across the first three preseason drives despite DK Metcalf and Calvin Austin III sitting. McFarland admitted he’d like Wilson closer to a 90% route rate and off the field with the starters, but remains intrigued by Wilson’s talent and believes he could carve out steady usage even under Arthur Smith’s notoriously quirky personnel rotations.

Dwain McFarland pointed out that Kaleb Johnson didn’t see action until the third preseason series but still took five carries for 24 yards and has strung together two strong exhibition outings. At 220-plus pounds, Johnson’s size and downhill style make him the back most likely to win Arthur Smith’s favor as the season wears on. McFarland recommended treating Johnson as a late bench stash in drafts, betting on him to emerge from what looks like an early-season three-man rotation.

Dwain McFarland noted Kenneth Gainwell mixed in on the Steelers’ first two preseason drives, logging 36% snaps, 40% carries and 29% routes in that ‘two-drive lens’ before falling to 27/29/22 when a third series with Kaleb Johnson was included. While Smith clearly has a role carved out for Gainwell, McFarland stressed that the back will need either a teammate injury or an outright failure from Johnson to climb into weekly fantasy value. The looming possibility of a three-way committee further limits Gainwell’s standalone appeal outside of deep-bench formats.

Dwain McFarland said Jaylen Warren enters 2025 as Pittsburgh’s No. 1 running back, noting he handled 64% of the snaps, 40% of the rushing attempts and a 57% route rate on the opening two preseason drives with Mason Rudolph. Looking at all three series alongside the starting offensive line, Warren finished at 47% snap share, 29% rush share and 44% routes. McFarland believes the fourth-year back’s every-down skill set justifies his consensus ADP of 92, yet warned that Arthur Smith’s history of unpredictable rotations plus early usage for Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson signals a possible two- or three-man committee that could cap Warren’s ceiling.

Andy Holloway called Jaylen Warren “underdrafted right now,” pointing to the uncertainty swirling around four or five backfields—most notably Pittsburgh’s. With the Steelers’ depth chart in flux and coaches openly praising Warren’s efficiency in 2024 (5.3 YPC and a 15% target share), Holloway thinks drafters are sleeping on his pathway to a timeshare or outright lead-back role. The lack of clarity is suppressing ADP, creating a cheap shot at a high-leverage pass-catching back who already stole meaningful third-down work from Najee Harris last season.

Kevin Szafraniec argued Pat Freiermuth is flat-out mispriced at his current TE27 ADP. He expects the Steelers to feature two-tight-end looks similar to Atlanta’s 2023 usage, but emphasized that Freiermuth—not teammate Smith—is still positioned to command the most targets on the roster. Szafraniec views him as the cheapest way to buy target volume in Pittsburgh and warned that passing on him often forces drafters into ugly reaches later. In his words, Freiermuth has legitimate ‘most-targets-on-the-team’ upside yet costs a back-of-the-16th-round pick, making him one of the better structural fits for drafters who already grabbed elite options but still want weekly spike potential.

Sean Koerner suggested drafting Jonnu Smith as a Week-1 placeholder if you miss every other tight end. Smith finished as the TE5 last season on a Miami squad featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Devon Achane—proof he can earn volume against stiff competition. Now in Pittsburgh with Aaron Rodgers, Koerner sees only DK Metcalf as clear target competition. Given Metcalf’s efficiency-over-volume style, there’s a non-zero chance Smith actually leads the Steelers in looks. Worst-case, you will know within a week whether he’s sharing snaps with Pat Freiermuth and can pivot quickly.

Matthew Berry said he is out on DK Metcalf at his WR20 consensus price because Arthur Smith offenses simply do not feed a true fantasy WR1. In Smith’s four years as a head coach or coordinator, no receiver has finished inside the top-30 in total or per-game fantasy points except for half a season of AJ Brown’s rookie year. The most targets any Smith wideout has ever seen is 117 (Drake London 2022); Metcalf has fallen below that number twice and finished outside the top-30 both times. Berry added that Aaron Rodgers signed in July, missing OTAs and shrinking the window to build chemistry, and that Rodgers’ current talent level playing cold outdoor games versus the Browns, Ravens and Bengals is a question mark. Mike Tomlin’s preferred formula of defense, a heavy rushing attack and winning 20-17 further caps volume, making Metcalf touchdown-dependent with limited ceiling. Berry recommends fading him in season-long and best-ball drafts at current ADP.