Best Ball Guy said Chris Godwin is an easy buy at his current ADP because the Buccaneers just guaranteed him $44 million on a new three-year, $60 million deal. He argued that Tampa would not have written that check unless team doctors were confident the wideout’s surgically-repaired, previously dislocated ankle will hold up. Even if the rehab timeline drags, Godwin’s floor still compares favorably with every receiver being drafted in the same range, and drafters are being paid to accept the medical risk that is already baked into his price.

Best Ball Guy said Jalen McMillan is a screaming value at his current 173 ADP. He reminded viewers that when the Big Board first opened, the market had McMillan around pick 77 strictly on raw talent. Since then the rookie’s price has collapsed because Tampa signed Emeka Egbuka and drafters are nervous. Guy thinks the market over-corrected. Chris Godwin is still "hurt" and Mike Evans is pushing father-time, so early–season targets are wide open. Drafting McMillan at 173 bakes in zero of the contingent volume upside that could surface if Godwin’s recovery lingers or Evans finally slows down. In a half-PPR best-ball room, Guy views McMillan as an easy late-round ceiling swing that once cost a seventh-round pick.

Ben Gretch said Bucky Irving remains a priority fantasy back despite concerns about his blitz-pick-up chops. He pointed out that Liam Cohen protected Irving last year by leaning on pony personnel packages and rarely asking him to stay in for protection, a strategy new coordinator Josh Grisard has already promised to keep in place. Tampa brings back the rest of its offensive staff, so the run-game concepts and motion-heavy looks that unlocked Irving’s open-field ability will still be there. Gretch also noted that coaches continue to rave about Rashad White’s pass-blocking—meaning White will handle obvious passing downs—freeing Irving to concentrate on early downs and red-zone carries. The combination of scheme continuity, proven willingness to hide his lone weakness, and the staff’s public statements that they "want to feed" him gives Irving a high weekly floor that fits an anchor-RB build in Best Ball Mania drafts.

Although he rostered Bucky Irving heavily last year, Ben Gretch thinks the market has gotten out over its skis in 2025. Irving still lacks top-end athleticism—he routinely got run down on long gains in 2024—and his 4.58 speed limits breakaway touchdown potential. Tampa Bay has said Rashad White will remain involved and coaches continue to talk up Sean Tucker, so Irving’s touch floor is not as secure as his Round-3 price suggests. Gretch prefers to pass on Irving in Best Ball Mania drafts unless he slips well beyond current ADP.

Jon Warner told the table to smash Emeka Egbuka any time he falls into the late-seventh, warning that Chihuahua and other badge-heavy rooms have already started treating him as a locked-in sixth-rounder. Warner expects Egbuka’s buzz to accelerate once the first preseason clip shows him running with the starters, noting that last year’s rookie WRs gained an average of 12.4 ADP spots once highlight reels circulated. He also pointed out that Egbuka’s only real competition for perimeter snaps is an aging Chris Godwin and an unpopular Cooper Kupp clone, making a 20-percent rookie target share feasible. With market sentiment still lukewarm after a sluggish combine, Warner is grabbing closing-line value now and predicts Egbuka will settle around pick 65 by Labor Day.

Nez cautioned that Emeka Egbuka’s rapid ADP climb—he went 72nd overall in their badge-heavy room—has crossed the point of profitability. Nez reminded listeners that Chris Godwin, still not ruled out for Week 1, is available in the same range, and argued Egbuka faces a crowded target tree in his rookie year. While first-round draft capital is encouraging, Nez questioned how much higher the market can realistically push a rookie who will share snaps with established veterans. He anticipates underdog drafters will "chew through the sixth round" and soon price Egbuka into the 50s, a level where you’re drafting him at ceiling rather than upside. His plan: keep clicking veterans like Godwin and Debo Samuel until Egbuka’s hype cools or new information emerges.

Davis Mattek said he is now happily clicking Mike Evans ahead of Terry McLaurin when both are on the board in the late third or early fourth round. Mattek thinks the market is sleeping on Evans because drafters are anchoring to Chris Godwin’s name value and ignoring Tampa Bay’s clearer target hierarchy: Godwin’s hamstring issue has him sliding while Evans—fresh off another 1,200-yard, 13-TD season—enters camp fully healthy. Mattek highlighted Evans’s 35 deep-target share (tied for second in the league) and Baker Mayfield’s top-five rate of throwing 20-plus-yard passes, calling the combo "an under-priced weekly nuke" for Best Ball formats. With Tampa projected to trail often and little reliable competition behind the top two receivers, Mattek believes Evans owns both target-volume and touchdown-spike paths to a WR1 finish and is a priority selection whenever he lasts past pick 38.

Sean Koerner advised passing on Baker Mayfield anywhere near his current QB6-QB7 ADP, calling 2024 a textbook sell-high scenario. Koerner reminded listeners that Mayfield’s 265 passing yards and 2.4 passing TDs per game last season obliterated his previous career bests (240 yards and 1.9 TDs back in his rookie year), and his 22 rushing yards per game—nearly 400 on the year—doubled his old high-water mark. He labeled those numbers a clear outlier fueled by one season of OC Liam Coen, who boosted Tampa’s scoring from 20.5 to 29.5 points per game before departing for Jacksonville. With Coen gone, Mike Evans entering age-32, Chris Godwin rehabbing yet another injury, and a rookie Emeka Egbuka replacing some of the target volume, Koerner believes Mayfield’s floor is closer to mid-QB2 territory (QB13-QB15). Drafting him inside the top-50 overall means forgoing scarce RB/WR value, and Koerner would rather chase cheaper upside later while still targeting ancillary Bucs like Evans or Egbuka at the right price.

Shawn Siegele argued that Bucky Irving’s late-Round-2 ADP bakes in almost zero upside. Siegele reminded listeners that Irving’s Week-12 through Week-18 surge—when he actually out-targeted Rachaad White—was fueled by a perfect health stretch the rookie may not repeat. Tampa Bay still plans to involve White as a passing-down option and views Sean Tucker as an explosive pure runner, creating a three-headed attack that robs Irving of the 20-touch ceiling fantasy managers need at his price. Combine that workload uncertainty with an offense featuring Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Brock Bowers that will funnel plenty of plays away from the backfield, and Siegele thinks Irving’s “true” draft slot should be early Round 3, not the 2.10 spot where drafters currently take him. In short, you are paying for last year’s heater and leaving no room for profit.

Freedman flagged Emeka Egbuka as one of his must-draft players after a modest Yahoo bump still left him at 127.1 overall (WR51) while his Underdog price sits a full 47 picks higher. The rookie first-rounder posted an 81-1,011-10 receiving line and ran a 4.42 forty, giving him the athletic profile to step into immediate volume. With Mike Evans approaching age 32 and Chris Godwin rehabbing from a second ankle surgery that landed him on PUP, Egbuka could open the season as the Buccaneers’ WR2 at worst. Freedman believes the market is underestimating both Egbuka’s talent and the fragility of Tampa Bay’s veteran depth chart, making him a screaming value in the double-digit rounds.

Pete Overzet said Bucky Irving is exactly the kind of rookie drafters should chase in 2025 best ball tournaments. He pointed to Ricky Pearsall’s 24.7-point outburst in Week 17 last season that vaulted the $1.5 million Best Ball Mania winner as proof that late-season rookie spikes decide the money. Because rookies function as a 'mystery box,' Irving is still discounted despite landing in what could be a vacated backfield in Tampa. Overzet reminded readers that rookies historically see role growth down the stretch and that a small $25 entry is leveraged most by players capable of a single week ceiling game. He framed Irving as the ideal late-round Zero-RB pick who can cover bye weeks early and deliver tournament-winning upside when the prize pool flattens in Weeks 15-17.

Best Ball Guy said the recent ADP drop on Baker Mayfield still is not steep enough for him to click the button. He pointed out that All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs is no longer available to protect Mayfield, and Chris Godwin is currently banged-up, leaving the Buccaneers’ passing game thin. With a compromised line and his primary safety-valve wideout at less than 100%, Mayfield’s weekly ceiling craters, yet drafters were paying a premium all summer. Best Ball Guy is content to let others chase the name value and will pivot to cheaper rushing quarterbacks or late-round stacks instead.

Ben Gretch advised fading Jalen McMillan at current late-round ADP, arguing the rookie’s 2023 efficiency masks a serious volume problem. Even with Chris Godwin hobbled and Mike Evans missing snaps last season, McMillan produced a sub-par targets-per-route rate while tight end Cade Otten— long considered a pure cardio play— saw his own TPRR spike. Gretch expects that target squeeze to intensify now that first-rounder Emeka Egbuka is in the slot rotation. Any McMillan breakout requires (1) an unexpected Godwin shutdown and (2) Father Time finally catching Mike Evans. Gretch acknowledged camp buzz and McMillan’s big-play profile, but said drafters are stacking too many ifs and treating 2023’s touchdown luck as predictive. In his Tampa projection McMillan profiles as an occasional spike-week WR6/7, not a reliable piece for Best Ball advance rates.

Ben Gretch labeled Baker Mayfield the single most over-valued quarterback in current best-ball drafts. Mayfield is going in the mid-eighth—two rounds before Caleb Williams—despite posting a career-high 4.9 % TD rate and an outlier 8.0 YPA on play-action in 2023, numbers Gretch expects to regress sharply with Dave Canales gone. Tampa Bay also projects to drop from last year’s pass-rate-over-expected as the defense weakens and Rachaad White’s usage climbs, cutting 30-plus attempts off Mayfield’s season total. Gretch is not fading the player entirely but refuses to pay a price that assumes another top-12 finish, stating that drafters are “buying last year’s ceiling as the new floor.”

Sam Monson maintained that fantasy managers should not fade Mike Evans simply because he’s turning 31. Evans owns a career 15-plus yards-per-reception average and recently passed 100 touchdowns, production Monson credited to “being big and strong and fast” rather than pure long speed. That skill set, he said, will let Evans stay Tampa’s primary vertical and red-zone weapon even after losing a step, similar to how Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall aged. Monson sees Evans’ spike-week profile intact, making him a value at current ADP in Season-Long leagues and an ideal ceiling play for Best-Ball builds.

Sam Monson warned drafters that Tampa Bay’s receiver corps carries far more downside than people acknowledge. He pointed to Chris Godwin coming off another significant knee injury at an age when recoveries slow, Mike Evans entering the decline phase where explosion can vanish quickly, and first-round pick Emeka Abuka projecting as merely “solid” rather than a ceiling-changing talent. Monson added that Trey Palmer is a one-trick 4.3-speed deep threat with drop issues and that seventh-rounder Taz Johnson’s size limits his floor. Because the unit’s range of outcomes is wider than other elite groups, Monson advised avoiding early-round exposure in Season-Long drafts and being underweight in Best-Ball tournaments.

In Rounds 8/9 Coventry targets Baker Mayfield, noting he often slides and still brings a top-15 ceiling thanks to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and an improving offensive line. He downplayed the loss of OC Liam Cohen and called Mayfield "a very solid target" for managers who punt QB.

Coventry likes Chris Godwin at Pick 65, dismissing injury concerns by clarifying the issue is a dislocated ankle—not an ACL—and he’s on track for Week 1. Godwin already flashed strong chemistry with Baker Mayfield in 2024, and Mayfield historically peppers slot receivers (e.g., Jarvis Landry).

Hayden Winks pushed back on Irving’s second-round ADP, arguing there are clearer paths to a top-five season for backs like Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor. Winks expects the Buccaneers to regress from a quietly top-five offense to "closer to the 10th best" after losing All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs and their offensive coordinator. At 195 lbs Irving may struggle to repeat his late-season 25-touch workload, especially with Rashad White still ticketed for pass-down snaps. Winks does not see a bust but questioned whether Irving can "completely rip off that ceiling" under a lighter workload and weaker offensive line, making him a pass at cost in best-ball rooms.

Jakob Sanderson declared he is "pro-Bucky" at RB9/22nd overall and still thinks the crowd is light. Irving led the league in yards-after-contact per carry last season and converted a mid-year timeshare into full workhorse status after Rashad White’s primetime fumble versus Dallas. From that point forward White logged just 10 total carries (one in the playoffs) while a playoff-bound Tampa offense funneled touches to Irving. Sanderson believes the new offensive coordinator is philosophically tied to last year’s staff and has publicly called Irving a centerpiece. Although Irving is only 195 lbs and the Tristan Wirfs foot injury “is the one thing that gives me pause,” Sanderson still slots him directly behind Jonathan Taylor and ahead of every third-round skill player because he sees no reason the team would "turn back the clock" after watching Irving elevate the run game. He views Irving’s ceiling as a top-five fantasy RB and wants continued exposure in Underdog drafts.

Chris Raybon backed Emeka Egbuka as a breakout candidate, pointing to GM Jason Licht’s track record of seamlessly reloading the roster after the Tom Brady era. Raybon believes Tampa Bay spent a first-round pick on Egbuka precisely because internal evaluations showed Jalen McMillan plateauing and Chris Godwin’s health trending the wrong direction. If Godwin’s recovery lingers, Raybon expects Egbuka to step into the No. 2 role by the end of camp, leapfrogging McMillan while still benefiting from Liam Cohn’s motion-heavy pass concepts that turbocharged Tampa’s YAC numbers last season. With Baker Mayfield comfortable piloting a high-volume attack and Mike Evans eventually facing age-related decline, Raybon sees Egbuka’s combination of first-round draft capital, 4.42 speed and slot/perimeter versatility as a cheap access point to 110-plus targets.

Matthew Freedman identified Emeka Egbuka as a screaming value because drafters are overrating the difficulty of cracking Tampa Bay’s target tree. Egbuka ran a 4.42 forty and posted elite college production at Ohio State yet is going outside the WR3 range in most drafts. Freedman acknowledged the potential negatives – a fourth play-caller in four seasons and early-camp competition with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan – but argued those concerns are already more than priced in. Evans is 32 and due for a decline, Godwin’s Week 1 availability is in doubt, and the offense remained top-10 in passing EPA with Baker Mayfield last year. Freedman sees multiple outs for Egbuka: immediate Godwin replacement, injury fill-in for Evans, or simply winning the No. 2 job by talent. Any of those scenarios would give a first-round athlete attached to a productive quarterback a path to a rookie-year breakout that dwarfs his current ADP.

Larry Hartstein loves Bucky Irving OVER 1,000.5 rushing yards. The rookie led the entire FBS last season with 3.93 yards after contact per attempt and saw his snap share rocket to 70% by December. Hartstein praised Irving’s short-area quickness and vision and noted that Tampa’s pass-heavy attack prevents eight-man fronts. In a top-10 offense littered with receiving threats, Hartstein projects enough neutral-script carries for Irving to clear 1,100+ yards if he stays healthy.

Emory Hunt also took the Buccaneers OVER 9.5 wins, projecting exactly 10 victories. Hunt noted that Tampa’s balanced offense and improved defense should cash the ticket despite a slate featuring the Bills, Jets and Patriots defenses. He likes the additions to Todd Bowles’ pass rush and believes the Bucs can trade punches with an upgraded Falcons squad. Even in a worst-case scenario, the NFC South tiebreakers set up favorably, making 10-7 a reasonable floor.

Larry Hartstein loves Tampa Bay OVER 9.5 wins at –110. He pointed out that the NFC South remains the league’s weakest division, handing the Bucs six games against sub-par rivals. Tampa also draws the AFC East, which Hartstein called a soft schedule this season. His main concern—Tristan Wirfs’ knee—should resolve after four games, restoring a fully intact O-line. On defense, All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. missed half of 2023; Hartstein expects his return to elevate a unit that already finished top-10 in pressure rate. With Mayfield’s continuity in a third straight season and every skill player back, Hartstein projects 10-12 wins.

Emory Hunt pushed back on the Baker-for-MVP narrative, calling 30-1 a poor value. He emphasized that voters gravitate to splash plays and late-season heroics—areas Mayfield lacks. Hunt highlighted Mayfield’s volatility (three-turnover games sprinkled between clean outings) and noted that to have any shot he would need a 40+ TD, sub-10 INT season, something he has never done. Hunt compared the situation to perennial stat guys like Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff who post numbers but do not wow voters with off-script magic.

Larry Hartstein argued there is some value in Baker Mayfield at 30-1 for MVP. Hartstein framed MVP as a team award and noted Tampa reached 10 wins last year despite being undervalued. If the Bucs get to 12-5 and secure a top-two NFC seed, Mayfield’s numbers (league-leading 69 TDs in 2022-23, top-10 EPA) will put him squarely in the conversation. Hartstein also referenced statement wins over the Eagles, Lions and Commanders, plus nearly upsetting the Chiefs, as evidence voters could accept Tampa as a legitimate contender.

Emory Hunt said to bet Baker Mayfield OVER 30.5 passing touchdowns. Hunt pointed out that Mayfield actually leads the entire league with 69 TD passes over the past two seasons and ranks seventh in EPA per play during that stretch. Tampa brings back every major weapon and even added first-rounder Emeka Egbuka, giving Mayfield four legitimate receivers plus Cade Otton at tight end. The offensive line is intact, and even if All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs misses a few games, veteran Charlie Heck (23 career starts) can keep the pocket clean. With a balanced run game to keep defenses honest and passing-game coordinator Josh Grizzard promoted to OC, Hunt expects the same aggressive, down-field approach we saw in 2023, making 31+ TDs well within reach.

PPRTyler predicted Emeka Egbuka’s draft cost will keep surging and urged drafters to "chase him up the board" into the sixth-round range. Tyler already holds roughly 15% exposure but plans to keep clicking the rookie because the profile reminds him of "prime Chris Godwin" at a discount. He noted a recent Baker Mayfield training-camp puff piece that highlighted quick chemistry with Egbuka, and emphasized the rookie’s path to immediate playing time: even if both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin stay healthy, Igbuka is the clear WR3; if either veteran’s age-related hamstring issues flare up, he could become Tampa’s target leader. Tyler expects Igbuka to join the Jerry Jeudy/Chris Olave/Jordan Addison tier before preseason ends and views him as a high-upside bet who can still be had at a depressed price in Best Ball tournaments.

Jason Moore highlighted Jalen McMillan as a prime late-round upside target. Although McMillan was quiet for most of his rookie season, he erupted over the final five weeks with 461 yards and eight touchdowns from Baker Mayfield—a 17-game pace of 1,074 yards and 23 scores. Moore believes the Buccaneers’ veteran duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin could cede snaps quickly—especially with Godwin’s ankle issues—setting up a potential end-of-season starting tandem of Roman Egbuka and McMillan. With McMillan available in the 11th round, Moore views him as a cheap bet on talent and emerging opportunity in both best-ball and redraft leagues.

Jason Moore advised fantasy managers to fade Chris Godwin after news surfaced that the Buccaneers wideout required a second ankle surgery this spring and opened camp on the PUP list. Moore pointed to visible swelling in recent camp photos, Godwin’s history of significant lower-body injuries, and the fact Tampa’s large contract extension reflects a multi-year Super Bowl timeline rather than Week 1 readiness. With rookies Roman Egbuka and Jalen McMillan waiting in the wings, Moore now has Godwin completely off his draft board, calling his sixth-round ADP "untouchable" for both season-long and best-ball formats.

Pat Kerrane stuck his flag in Chris Godwin, selecting him over names like Jordan Addison and Deebo Samuel at roughly ADP. Kerrane dismissed the social-media panic about Godwin’s "anchor" (ankle) situation, stressing it was only a simple wrap—not a restrictive brace—and therefore no reason to downgrade him. He argued the market is baking in phantom injury risk even though every camp clip shows Godwin moving normally and logging his usual first-team reps. With Tampa expected to trail often and Godwin locked into a full-time slot/inside-out role, Kerrane believes the target floor remains intact and the discount will look silly by November.

Ben Stevens predicted Baker Mayfield will again finish as a top-five production quarterback in 2024, calling him one of fantasy’s best late-round steals. Stevens expects the Buccaneers’ pass-heavy scheme to push Mayfield near 5,000 passing yards and roughly 40 touchdowns while maintaining a quarterback rating north of 100. He credited Mayfield’s late-career renaissance to improved decision-making, a humbling stint of team-hopping that forced him to "figure out how to play the position," and the presence of elite wideouts in Tampa’s vertical attack. After two consecutive seasons of QB1-caliber efficiency, Stevens sees no reason to doubt Mayfield’s ceiling, advising season-long and best-ball managers to draft him aggressively and to look at over props on his yardage and touchdowns once sportsbooks post them.

Nick Whalen buried first-rounder Emeka Egbuka in Tier 7, warning drafters that the rookie likely opens 2025 as Tampa Bay’s WR4 behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Trey Palmer. Whalen emphasized that Evans and Godwin combined for 48% of the Bucs’ targets last year and both are healthy entering camp, leaving only scrap-heap volume for Egbuka barring multiple injuries. Even with elite collegiate tape, Whalen projected fewer than 40 rookie-year receptions and advised treating him strictly as a deep bench hold in seasonal leagues. He prefers to wait for inevitable mid-season waiver availability rather than spend a final-round pick now.

Whalen is buying Chris Godwin at cost after a "bone, not ligament" injury. He pointed out that before Godwin went down, Mike Evans was averaging just 6–7 targets, 4 catches, and 45 yards per game, illustrating how Godwin siphons volume whenever he’s healthy. Expecting Godwin to be ready by Week 1—or shortly thereafter—Whalen sees little reason the slot maven can’t immediately reprise his chain-moving role and push for 90+ receptions in 2025.

Whalen is below consensus on Mike Evans, noting that only 11 players since 2000 have cracked 1,000 yards in their 12th NFL season. Although Evans’ 11-year streak is impressive, Whalen would "rather be out a year early" than spend a late-third-round pick on a profile that screams statistical regression. With Tampa expected to lean run-heavier and Chris Godwin back at full strength, Whalen cautioned drafters not to chase last season’s production spike.

Andrew Erickson officially bet the Buccaneers under 7.5 wins, reiterating the concerns he laid out earlier in the show. He again flagged Tristan Wirfs’ uncertain recovery timeline and Chris Godwin’s lingering ankle issues, both of which strip Baker Mayfield of protection and a reliable secondary target through the season’s first month. Erickson also pointed out that Mayfield will be breaking in his third offensive coordinator in three years after Liam Cohen’s departure, a trend that has historically produced slow starts for the veteran. Tampa opened 4-6 and 4-7 the last two seasons with healthier rosters, so Erickson does not see a clear path to eight victories in 2025 unless every single health variable breaks perfectly—an outcome he is comfortable fading.

Joey P took Baker Mayfield over 3,825.5 regular-season passing yards at –114, calling the number "cake." Mayfield threw for 4,500 last season despite learning a new system and dealing with mid-year injuries to Chris Godwin. With Mike Evans re-signed and second-rounder Ricky Pearsall adding YAC ability, Joey believes Mayfield repeating 4K is the floor. Even mild regression would still clear the posted line by 175-plus yards, so he rated it his favorite NFC South player prop.

Terrell Furman took the Buccaneers’ alternate under 9.5 wins, laying out several red flags. He said Todd Bowles’ supposedly defensive calling card has been a year-to-year roller-coaster and the 2025 unit does not project as a top-half group. Offensively, Furman stressed that Baker Mayfield requires "perfect conditions" to thrive—something Tampa may not provide with Tristan Wirfs’ status unknown and no proven replacement at left tackle. Remove just one protection piece, Furman warned, and Mayfield’s play "goes from plucky to turnover-prone in a hurry." Given those uncertainties, Furman believes the true ceiling is nine wins and prefers the plus-money under rather than betting on everything breaking right for Tampa.

Andrew Erickson said bettors should approach Tampa Bay’s 2025 win total and September spreads with caution. He noted that both Chris Godwin (still rehabbing an ankle) and All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs are iffy for Week 1, stripping Baker Mayfield of a reliable No. 2 receiver and blind-side protection. Mayfield will also be learning under his third offensive coordinator in three seasons after Liam Cohen departed and internal hire Drosh Rizard took over. Erickson pointed out that even with healthier rosters the Bucs opened 4-6 and 4-7 the last two seasons, so he expects another slow launch if the injuries linger. His lean is toward the under on their win total and fading Tampa ATS in the first month.

Best Ball Guy said drafters should start mixing Mike Evans into their third-round portfolio even when they do not have Baker Mayfield already in hand. His argument is pure ceiling: Evans’ week-tilting touchdown profile has produced multiple BBM finals appearances, and the Buccaneers’ December schedule – one BBG repeatedly called "very stack-friendly" – offers shoot-out potential that maximizes that spike-week juice. Because the third round often feels flat, sliding in Evans secures weekly upside that most of the volume-based wideouts in that range simply cannot match. BBG noted he is purposely diversifying away from a strict Evans–Godwin pairing and is happy to run Evans as a solo bet with Mayfield or even with rookie Emeka Egbuka to keep roster construction flexible while still capturing Tampa Bay’s playoff ceiling.

Fuller warned that Mayfield’s QB5, career-best 2024 season (highs in YPA, TDs, completion rate, and rushing yards) is unlikely to repeat. The Buccaneers lost OC Liam Coen—whom Fuller credits for the breakout—to Jacksonville, replacing him with first-time play-caller Josh Grizzard. Even with a deep WR room and pass-catching backs, Fuller expects natural regression in Mayfield’s efficiency metrics and believes the scheme change widens his downside range. Despite that, Mayfield is still being drafted in the QB7-QB10 window, leaving ample room to disappoint if his TD rate or yardage slide back toward career norms.

Pete Overzet said bearish injury chatter around Chris Godwin has yet to be fully baked into drafts. He expects a noticeable ADP slide once training-camp reports surface and recommended holding off until that discount arrives.

McFarland urged caution on Baker Mayfield at his Round-7 ADP (75.8). Mayfield’s 2024 QB8 season rode career-highs in TD rate (7.2%), YPA (7.9) and rushing (22.2 YPG). History shows even elite QBs rarely repeat spike seasons, and Tampa enters camp with warning signs: Mike Evans is 32, Chris Godwin is still sidelined by ankle dislocation, and LT Tristan Wirfs opened on PUP. McFarland’s model shows 15.1 floor, 18.2 median, 22.6 ceiling—similar to cheaper Tier-5 passers. He compares Mayfield’s 2025 risk profile to last year’s overdrafted C.J. Stroud and advises only taking him if he slides past ADP.

Hayden Winks urged caution on Baker Mayfield, labeling him a classic regression candidate despite last season’s career highs. Mayfield ranked QB7 in completion percentage over expected and PFF’s QB2 outside the pocket while doubling his career rushing output to 22 yards per game, but Winks highlighted the red flags: 16 interceptions, QB28 turnover-worthy-play rate and a league-best 51% third-down conversion rate that is bound to fall. The structural issues are bigger—play-caller Liam Coen is gone, and left tackle Tristan Wirfs (high-ankle) will miss at least four games with a former 49ers third-stringer filling in. Without elite protection, Winks fears Mayfield’s heat-check hero ball resurfaces. He advised fading Mayfield at his QB15 ADP and taking the under on his 27.5 passing-TD prop.

Coventry pointed out that Baker Mayfield often slips into Rounds 8–9 and is a bargain thanks to Tampa Bay’s elite receiving corps and solid offensive line. After finishing as QB12 last year, the veteran returns to the same scheme with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Trey Palmer, giving him a safe fantasy floor and weekly top-10 upside for managers who punt quarterback.

Mattek told listeners not to panic about reports that Chris Godwin will miss July team activities, projecting a 60-40 chance the veteran is ready for Week 1. Because the headlines are pushing Godwin’s Underdog ADP into the late-seventh round, Mattek views him as an immediate buy-low candidate. He believes the dip overcorrects for a non-surgical soft-tissue issue and noted that Godwin quietly posted a 22% target share last season while playing every game. For drafters who already have four wide receivers through seven rounds—the Hayden Winks ‘Golden Rule’—Godwin supplies bankable volume and a WR2 ceiling at a WR4 price.

Nick Whalen played Baker Mayfield at 10-to-1 to throw the most interceptions. Mayfield tied for the league lead with 16 picks last year while ranking fifth in attempts, and the four quarterbacks ahead of him in interception rate are no longer full-time starters. Tampa kept its aggressive, vertical passing approach under Liam Coen, giving Mayfield ample opportunity to repeat the dubious feat. Whalen also considered Sam Darnold (10-1) and Michael Penix (15-1) but thinks Baker’s locked-in job security and track record make him the best value.

Whalen opened Tier 3 with Bucky Irving, noting Tampa finally let Rashad White take a permanent back seat late last year. Even with OC Liam Coen departing for Jacksonville, Irving’s end-of-season usage makes Whalen comfortable drafting him in the second round as a low-end RB1 who carries no glaring workload or efficiency concerns.

Rich Hribar said he is passing on Chris Godwin at current ADP because the market still hasn’t adjusted enough for the wideout’s cloudy role. Hribar noted Tampa’s coaching staff has never clarified whether Godwin will resume a full-time role or be limited to slot-only snaps, and the depth chart has more moving parts than most drafters admit—Jalen McMillan flashed late last year and Mike Evans remains the alpha. Despite sagging since March, Godwin is still being drafted several spots ahead of Stefon Diggs, whom Hribar believes has a "cleaner runway" to volume in New England. Until Godwin slips further—into a range with names like Debo Samuel—Hribar is comfortable letting someone else take on the risk in both best-ball tournaments and traditional season-long leagues.