Joe Bartel said fantasy managers should leave Zach Ertz on the waiver wire even when the draft room is begging for a tight end. RotoWire’s value meter shows almost no chance Ertz returns a top-5 finish and projects the lowest ceiling among the late-round options. Bartel emphasized that at this stage of his career Ertz is, in his words, "too decrepit to actually play football," so burning a 13th-round pick on him only caps roster upside. Instead, Bartel prefers to keep loading up on running-back and wide-receiver depth while letting someone else take the risk.

When the mock finally forced him to consider tight ends in Round 13, Bartel flatly dismissed Zach Ertz, saying the veteran is "too decrepit to actually play football at this point." The RotoWire value meter also flagged Ertz as the lowest-scoring option among the late tight-end pool. Bartel advised passing on Ertz entirely and instead throwing darts at younger options with athletic upside because the 33-year-old offers virtually no path to a top-five finish.

PPRTyler said Terry McLaurin has slid far too deep in Underdog best-ball rooms only because of an early-summer 'weird contract thing that literally didn’t matter.' McLaurin previously went much earlier in drafts, and with the contract noise gone Tyler views him as a clear value at his current ADP. He grabbed McLaurin after starting heavy WR and framed the pick as an easy buy now that preseason hold-out fears have evaporated.

Hayden Winks said he is not chasing Jekori Kroski-Merritt hype in redraft. Washington produced the third-most expected RB touchdowns last year, and if healthy, Brian Robinson should absorb the majority again despite Austin Ekeler’s presence. Kroski-Merritt is a dynasty stash or 18th-round Best Ball dart who needs multiple injuries to matter. Hayden remains comfortable drafting Robinson at his current mid-round ADP.

Hayden Winks advised passing on Terry McLaurin at his early-third-round cost. The hold-in is irrelevant; the real issue is unsustainable scoring. McLaurin’s 13 touchdowns last season dwarf Hayden’s 2025 projection of eight, even with Jaden Daniels pushing the ball downfield. A drop to eight TDs makes McLaurin a fourth- or fifth-round value, not a Top-30 pick. Hayden likes the player’s speed and smarts but will not pay for last year’s outlier touchdown rate.

Ben Gretch called Zach Ertz “a reasonable volume play” who is being overlooked in late rounds. Ertz quietly posted his best yards-per-target in several seasons and has a long track record of success in Cliff Kingsbury’s RPO-heavy scheme. Kingsbury values Ertz’s ability to diagnose coverage and sit in soft zones, traits that mesh with Jayden Daniels’ quick-read tendencies. Gretch does not see Ben Sinnott as an immediate threat to that role and expects Ertz to settle into a reliable 3–4 catches per game with room for chain-moving spike weeks. In Best Ball formats, that steady floor paired with occasional red-zone usage gives drafters cheap, bankable production at a position that dries up quickly.

Greg Brainos recommended Zach Ertz as a stabilizing piece for drafter’s third-tight-end slot in light builds. Despite his age, Ertz hauled in 11 catches during Washington’s playoff loss and posted a "pretty strong" regular season, showing he can still soak up targets if healthy. Brainos prefers Ertz’s weekly reception floor over flashier late darts because it smooths scoring variance when elite assets are spent elsewhere on the roster.

Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin is now a value at the 3-4 turn after sliding from the late-third because of his mini-holdout. Kerrane is pairing McLaurin with rookie QB Jaden Daniels in best-ball drafts, reasoning that Washington has no other true alpha—Debo Samuel would be "half a running back" if he even arrives—so McLaurin’s role is secure once the contract standoff ends. He pointed to McLaurin’s 26 % first-read target share, 13.5-yard average depth of target and 1.97 yards per route run in 2023 as evidence the veteran’s underlying efficiency held up even if last year’s 13 regular-season touchdowns (16 including playoffs) probably regress. Because the Commanders are built to win now and cannot install a down-field passing game without him, Kerrane expects a deal before Week 1 and is happy scooping McLaurin whenever he falls into the mid-fourth round.

Peter Overzet admitted he “didn’t pound the table” for Deebo earlier in the round but still believes Samuel is one of the board’s biggest misprices. Overzet argued most drafters are anchored to last year’s down season—when Samuel played through illness and missed three games—yet are ignoring his clean bill of health and a fresh start in Cliff Kingsbury’s YAC-friendly system. Kingsbury has been chasing a Deebo-type weapon for five years and now has him as the unquestioned WR1 opposite rookie Jayden Daniels. Overzet added that Samuel has been posting a steady stream of workout videos and ‘revenge body’ clips, a pattern the market historically rewards once preseason highlights hit Twitter. With drafters happily pushing Terry McLaurin up on holdout rumors but leaving Deebo flat at pick 70-plus, Overzet is scooping Samuel wherever he falls into the sixth and calling him a “free bet on a proven 20-point ceiling.”

Pat Kerrane advised passing on Deebo Samuel at his current Round-4 cost now that the gadget star has been shipped from Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to Kliff Kingsbury’s more scatter-shot offense. Kerrane pointed out Samuel’s efficiency cratered last season—just 1.60 yards per route run outside of a few cherry-picked hot streaks—and his first-read share was only 21.8 percent, far lower than true alpha receivers. With Washington expecting Terry McLaurin to keep the vertical role, Kerrane views Samuel as "half a running back" who will soak up manufactured touches but rarely command high-value down-field targets. If Samuel’s 2023 production felt disappointing while attached to Shanahan, Kerrane argues it is dangerous to assume any bounce-back when the play-caller downgrade and target competition remain obvious. He is letting others click Deebo in the 40s and will only consider him if the ADP drifts into the sixth round.

Pat Kerrane said Terry McLaurin finally costs what he should have all summer and is now a clean click in the mid-fourth round, especially when you want to stack him with rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels who usually goes a few picks later. Kerrane noted McLaurin’s 26 percent first-read target share and 13.5-yard aDOT from 2023 show he already commands both volume and down-field work. The current slide is strictly contract-related, but Kerrane doubts it drags into the regular season because Washington simply has no true field-stretching No. 1 without him. Even if the 13 regular-season touchdowns regress, McLaurin’s 1.97 yards per route run and the likelihood of a pass-heavy West-Coast scheme under Kliff Kingsbury keep a WR2 outcome firmly in play at a WR20-ish price. He is scooping shares whenever the Commanders’ wideout slips past pick 40 to juice his Daniels exposure in Best Ball tournaments.

Donnie Rightside advised betting the UNDER on Jayden Daniels’ season-long prop lines at FanDuel, calling them "out of control" for a player entering just his second NFL season. The market currently lists Daniels at 3,400 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 675 rushing yards and 5.5 rushing touchdowns—numbers that price him like a top-five dual-threat quarterback. Rightside expects defensive coordinators to adjust after a full offseason of film study, leading to a classic sophomore regression. He also flagged the elevated injury risk that comes with Daniels’ rushing volume, citing Lamar Jackson’s periodic absences and Robert Griffin III’s career-altering knee injuries as cautionary tales. Because any concussion, hamstring tweak or ankle sprain that costs Daniels even one or two games would make those overs difficult to reach across a 17-game schedule, Rightside prefers playing the unders on all four props.

Ian Hartitz labeled Terry McLaurin a ‘pause’ candidate, pointing out that the Commanders’ WR is simultaneously nursing an ankle issue and staging a soft-hold-in while angling for a new deal. McLaurin has yet to practice, and Hartitz warned the situation “has the potential to get ugly” if negotiations stall. With no timetable for a return and a rookie quarterback learning the offense, Hartitz prefers to wait for a discount rather than pay McLaurin’s current WR2 price tag in Season-Long and Best Ball drafts.

The Fantasy Life Newsletter noted that Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s first-team reps during training camp—and the steady social-media drumbeat around his play—make him a name to stash. Washington’s backfield is wide open and tied to what the tout calls a potentially high-powered offense, checking every late-round sleeper box: unclear depth chart, reasonable path to touches, and inexpensive ADP. With little draft capital invested (seventh round) but early camp involvement, Croskey-Merritt has moved onto the tout’s watch list as a free, upside swing at the very end of drafts.

Jonathan Fuller warned that Terry McLaurin’s WR6 season is unlikely to repeat. After never topping five touchdowns from 2020-23, McLaurin spiked to 13 scores in 2024, a classic red-zone outlier. Washington added Deebo Samuel via trade, drafted Jaylin Lane, retained Zach Ertz, and could see Luke McCaffrey expand his role, all of which siphon targets from McLaurin. Fantasy Life projects 1,044 yards and 7.9 TDs—solid but far below last year’s output. Fuller still values him as a starter but views the 2024 stat line as a ceiling, not a new norm.

Ben Gretch identified seventh-round pick Jacori Croskey-Merritt as a nearly free dart throw who could carve out an explosive-play role in Washington’s backfield. Austin Ekeler is 29 and the only proven juice on the roster, while Brian Robinson and Chris Rodriguez are straight-line grinders. Gretch’s projections leave room for a speed back who can flip field position and catch passes in Kliff Kingsbury’s uptempo offense. Although Merritt is far from a roster lock—Gretch conceded he could be cut—he costs a Round-20 pick, exactly the type of asymmetric bet that can swing Best Ball tournaments if Ekeler’s age shows or the Commanders simply want more big-play potential. Gretch prefers stashing Merritt over veteran dust backs in the same range because any path to snaps in a Jayden Daniels offense could translate to lineup-cracking spike weeks down the stretch.

Ben Gretch said Jaden Daniels can flat-out break fantasy and should be drafted with Lamar Jackson rather than in the second QB tier. His projection gives Daniels 891 rushing yards—just 24 behind Lamar’s league-leading 915—and bakes in 9 % of Washington’s dropbacks for designed runs. Gretch highlighted how Kliff Kingsbury’s shotgun, horizontal-raid attack ran 70-plus plays in five of Daniels’ final seven games last year, a tempo spike that massively inflates counting stats. Washington’s hyper-aggressive fourth-down approach also keeps drives alive, tacking on extra pass attempts and red-zone trips. With quick RPO throws counted as passing yards and Daniels’ own scrambling TD equity, Gretch believes the rookie has a realistic path to outscore every other quarterback in Best Ball formats at a cheaper ADP than the established elites.

Mike Wright compared each top-five quarterback’s ADP to the running back you must forfeit in the same draft range and concluded Jayden Daniels is the clear bargain. Taking Josh Allen means passing on Jonathan Taylor; Lamar Jackson costs you Kyren Williams; but Daniels only forces you to skip Breece Hall. Wright believes Daniels can match Allen and Jackson in fantasy points thanks to his projected 700 rushing yards and eight rushing scores in Kliff Kingsbury’s wide-open offense, while Hall faces a questionable Jets line and a likely timeshare with rookie Braelon Allen. Because Daniels sits in the same elite tier yet comes with the smallest opportunity cost, Wright recommended prioritizing him whenever you want to secure an early quarterback.

Peter Overzet clicked Deebo Samuel moments after nabbing Godwin, saying he is "fading Twitter" hysteria about one unflattering photo that made Samuel look heavy. Overzet noted 49ers beat writers have been consistently positive on Deebo’s conditioning and usage, and Kyle Shanahan continues to rave about getting him more back-field touches. With Brock Purdy healthy and San Francisco projected top-10 in implied points most weeks, Overzet views Deebo as a ceiling piece who is still available two full rounds after where he went last summer.

Rich Cooling urged managers to grab Marcus Mariota off waivers now, calling him "one of the 32 best quarterbacks" who should be starting somewhere. If rookie Jayden Daniels gets banged up, Mariota would step into Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo Washington offense and immediately offer 4–5 designed runs plus every drop-back, giving him an automatic QB2 floor with upside. Cooling thinks a four-week audition could triple Mariota’s value—either via mid-season trades for a second- or third-round pick or by earning a 2025 bridge-starter role for another team. Because his current cost is a zero-dollar FAAB bid or a throw-in piece, the risk-reward profile is nearly all upside.

Calling him the "least-uncertain" elite dual threat, McFarland argues Jayden Daniels could seize the QB1 crown in Year 2 and should be smashed at his mid-Round-3 ADP (32.6). Daniels delivered 21.1 PPG as a rookie, joining Newton, RG III, Mahomes, Lamar, Hurts and Herbert as the only 20-plus PPG first- or second-year starters since 2011. He ranked 1st in scramble rate (12%) and 5th in designed rush rate (18%), averaging 53 rushing yards and 241 passing yards per full game. In three playoff games he erupted for 274 passing yards and 23.8 fantasy points. Kingsbury’s screen/RPO heavy scheme meshes with new weapon Deebo Samuel while Terry McLaurin stretches the field. Projection model: 18.2 floor, 22.0 median, 27.7 ceiling. McFarland says Daniels and Lamar are the only QBs with realistic 4,000-pass/800-rush upside.

Dwain McFarland ranked Jayden Daniels in Tier 1 and said he could seize the QB1 mantle this season. Daniels and Lamar Jackson are the only quarterbacks McFarland projects for an 800-yard rushing ceiling plus 4,000 passing-yard upside. Because Daniels is routinely available in the middle of Round 3 and carries less weekly-floor volatility than most dual-threats, McFarland advised fantasy managers to "smash the draft button" wherever he slides.

Hayden Winks ranked second-year passer Jaden Daniels fifth overall among all NFL quarterbacks and urged drafters to treat him like a top-end fantasy starter. Daniels’ scrambling already forces defenses to abandon blitzing—he led the league in success rate against six-plus rushers and even outran Brian Branch on a nickel blitz for a huge gain against Detroit. Winks said the final missing piece is comfort working full-field progressions, a natural year-two growth step. Given his Lamar-level rushing upside and a solid supporting cast, Winks recommends scooping Daniels aggressively in season-long leagues and taking a sprinkle on his long-shot MVP odds before the market wakes up.

Nick Whalen played Jayden Daniels at +250 to lead the NFC East in passing yards. Daniels threw for 3,518 yards as a rookie behind a mediocre line; Washington added two new tackles and more speed at WR, prompting Whalen to project a jump past 4,000. Dak Prescott is the rightful favorite, but Whalen notes a two-game absence would bring the Cowboys star back to the pack. He likes the combination of improved protection, an Eric Bieniemy system expected to push tempo and a plus price.

Kravitz likes Jaden Daniels at +750 to win MVP more than backing Washington at +205 to win the NFC East. He pointed out the division has produced a new champ in 20 straight seasons, so Commanders upside is real, but Daniels’ award odds offer a far better payout and are inherently correlated—if Washington shocks the division, their second-year star QB will drive the narrative. The franchise has pushed all-in, adding Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel and Von Miller to maximize Daniels’ rookie-contract window. Despite a tougher schedule and heavier prime-time spotlight, Kravitz believes the talent surplus keeps MVP within reach and makes 7.5-to-1 a smarter wager than 2-to-1 on the division.

Liam Murphy said he would slot Jaden Daniels at the very top of his personal 'vibe ranks,' even ahead of established studs. Murphy called the rookie "already a top-five NFL quarterback" because of his proven rushing chops and the fact Eric Bieniemy is expected to scheme designed runs inside the 10. Daniels averaged 8.4 YPC and scored 10 red-zone TDs in his final college season, numbers Murphy likens to rookie-year Lamar. He contrasted that with Josh Allen, noting Buffalo will likely siphon away 1- and 2-yard plunges to protect their franchise arm. With a safe rushing floor, an improving Washington receiving corps, and a soft Week 17 matchup against New England, Murphy views Daniels as a legitimate overall QB1 candidate and is happy to reach for him in Best Ball Mania.

Pat Kerrane said he is not panicking over Terry McLaurin’s looming hold-out even though the veteran wideout is "very pissed off" about entering camp without an extension. Kerrane argued Washington has no succession plan—no rookie replacement and a win-now roster built around Jaden Daniels—so the front office ultimately has to pay McLaurin. Because the Commanders can offer more guaranteed money now than McLaurin would ever see on the open market as a 31-year-old free agent, Kerrane expects a deal to get done, even if it drags well into August. In the meantime, he sees ADP downside capped by the natural Daniels-McLaurin stack at the 3/4 turn. Should the stalemate push McLaurin into the late fourth or fifth round, Kerrane plans to scoop the discount, noting that he already prefers McLaurin over DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley straight up. His bottom line: treat any summer slide as an auto-buy in Best Ball drafts rather than a red flag.

Ian Hartitz advised fading Deebo Samuel outside the top-40 receivers in normal redraft leagues. Hartitz argued Washington is unlikely to give Samuel anything close to the gadget-back usage Kyle Shanahan built around him in San Francisco, stripping away the rushing volume that once buoyed his fantasy ceiling. Samuel’s efficiency already collapsed in 2024—he ranked WR25 in points per game before a bout with pneumonia and fell outside the top-40 afterward—while tracking near the bottom of the league in success rate versus man coverage. Hartitz called the 28-year-old an age-ing, YAC-dependent archetype whose per-touch pop has cratered, noting that Commanders coach Kliff Kingsbury historically funnels quick-hitting screens to younger, more explosive options. With Terry McLaurin entrenched as the alpha and rookie Luke McCaffrey stealing underneath looks, Hartitz sees Samuel settling around 60-65 catches, sub-750 yards, and minimal carry work—production that won’t punish you if you completely pass on him at current ADP.

Ian Hartitz pushed back on McLaurin’s rising draft price, keeping him at WR18 and labeling him one of the position’s riskier Round-3 picks. Hartitz reminded listeners that McLaurin soaked up only 117 targets in 17 games last season—far below the 150-plus he expected given Washington’s paper-thin receiver room. McLaurin saved his fantasy year with an outlier touchdown rate, something Hartitz views as unlikely to repeat for a 30-year-old wideout whose efficiency has been steadier than explosive throughout his career. With the Commanders eyeing short contracts because of McLaurin’s age, and potential newcomers like Debo Samuel or Luke McCaffrey siphoning underneath looks, Hartitz fears McLaurin will again sit 20-30 targets behind peers such as Mike Evans, DK Metcalf, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Without that high-end volume, Hartitz believes regression could pull McLaurin down to a mid-WR3 finish, making him a fade at current ADP.

Jake Ciely ranked Terry McLaurin as his WR15—three spots ahead of current ADP—and explained why he remains bullish. Ciely projects a modest bump of roughly 7-10 additional targets over last year’s 117, but believes the real upside comes from improved per-catch production. Washington’s offseason additions should finally give McLaurin breathing room: Debo Samuel (even if he’s merely a big-slot yak guy), rookie Luke McCaffrey soaking up underneath routes, and Zach Ertz returning as a reliable short-area option. Those pieces, plus Jayden Daniels’ scrambling ability that forces second-reaction defenses, should leave McLaurin in single coverage more often and open the door for deeper shots and higher-value touchdowns. Ciely sees a path to a more efficient 2025 stat line—think 1,150-plus yards and 7-9 scores—making McLaurin a rock-solid back-end WR2 inside his large Tier 3 that stretches from Tee Higgins to Courtland Sutton.

Jason Moore pegged Terry McLaurin as one of the easiest negative-regression calls in 2024. McLaurin is only the 10th wideout since 2000 to reach 13 receiving touchdowns on fewer than 125 targets, and Moore said historical comps show nine of those players lost touchdowns the next season—often a "catastrophic" drop. With Washington still leaning run-heavy and adding Deebo Samuel to siphon targets, Moore doubts the volume spike required to repeat double-digit scores materializes. He added that McLaurin’s TDs came in low-yardage games, masking his week-to-week volatility; without more looks, fantasy managers are banking on an unsustainable red-zone outlier.

Andy Holloway warned listeners not to touch Deebo Samuel in the eighth round. He said the once-elite YAC weapon looked "painful to watch" last year, posting four single-digit fantasy outings of 4.0 points or fewer after Week 9. Holloway noted Washington’s passing volume was already fifth-lowest in 2023 and is unlikely to jump enough to support a third receiving option behind Terry McLaurin and the running backs. With the 49ers already willing to move on from him, Holloway fears Deebo has lost the burst that made him special and would only consider him if he slides into the double-digit rounds where opportunity cost disappears.

Jason Moore said drafters should scoop up Austin Ekeler whenever he slips past RB30 because Washington’s offense quietly finished sixth in points and fifth in yards last year despite ranking bottom-five in pass attempts. Moore pointed out that Ekeler, even at age 30, still led all running backs with at least 100 touches in yards per touch, showing the explosive receiving juice fantasy managers covet. He believes Cliff Kingsbury’s system will lean on quick dump-offs whenever Jaden Daniels scrambles, giving Ekeler a high-floor pass-catching role. Moore acknowledged age-related injury risk but argued the cost bakes that in, calling Ekeler the one-pick contingency bet if you only want one Commander backfield share.

Andy Holloway argued that Daniels is worth his aggressive QB3 price tag (ADP 3.05) because he is one of the rare signal-callers who can realistically break fantasy in the Lamar-2019 or Kyler-2020 way. From Week 9 on last season, Daniels’ passing pace sat at 4,000 yards and 36 TDs while he still averaged 51 rushing yards per game. Holloway compared the second-year star to Kyler Murray working under the same Eric Bieniemy offense, noting that Murray vaulted from QB5 as a rookie to QB2 in Year 2. Washington’s schedule is just 14th-hardest after being a cakewalk last year, but the team added Deebo Samuel and retained (he expects) Terry McLaurin, giving Daniels his best surrounding cast yet. Holloway emphasized that Daniels already produced two road playoff wins (268-2 vs Tampa, 299-2 vs Detroit) and finished as the overall QB5 despite the ‘easy schedule’ narrative, so a leap to QB1 overall is squarely in his range of outcomes.

Ben Gretch called Terry McLaurin a classic fade at Round-4 pricing, noting that last year’s WR16 finish required a career-high 13 touchdowns (second-most in the NFL) on just 1,098 yards and 1.98 yards per route run. McLaurin’s down-field role produces a high average depth of target, limiting the quick-hit RPO looks that dominate Jayden Daniels’ scheme. Washington imported Debo Samuel for underneath work and drafted Jalen Lane as a ball-in-hand option, meaning McLaurin is unlikely to see the short-area volume bump many drafters assume comes with being “the No. 1 receiver.” His targets-per-route have been steady but not elite, and Gretch sees no path for that metric to jump while aDOT remains north of 12. If the touchdown luck regresses to his career norm (6–7 scores), McLaurin projects outside the top-24 receivers, making his current WR18 ADP an easy avoid.

PPRTyler said Jaden Daniels has already jumped from ADP 4 to the unquestioned 1.01 and called him “how you win this contest.” Tyler stressed that every roster either needs Daniels or has to build a quarterback room specifically designed to keep pace with him, noting his own decision to double-tap Bo Nix and Caleb Williams because “we’ve got to beat Jaden somehow.” In Tyler’s view, Daniels’ unique early-season ceiling forces the entire draft room to revolve around him, making the rookie quarterback a must-click at the top of Underdog’s Best Ball tournaments that feature Week-by-Week eliminations.

With no meaningful coachspeak and a depth chart featuring Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez, seventh-round rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Super Model 60, ADP 215.2) is likely the RB3/4 in Washington. Overzet concedes there is contingent upside if injuries strike but sees little standalone role and is not drafting him (0.6 % exposure). The advice is to keep him bookmarked for waiver or late-summer ADP shifts, not to spend current Best Ball capital.

Best Ball Guy called Brian Robinson Jr. a clear tier-break running back in the late-80s/early-90s of BBM drafts. He said Robinson is the last back in that range he feels comfortable with, noting he prefers B-Rob straight up over Travis Etienne, Jaylen Warren or Quinshon Judkins. On builds that already feature Dallas pass-catchers, Robinson also provides a natural Week-17 bring-back against the Cowboys without forcing drafters to reach. BBG’s advice: once Robinson is on the board after pick 90, click him before the room pushes you into a flatter RB pocket with less defined roles and lower touchdown equity.

Best Ball Guy put an exact number on Jaden Daniels’ importance in Underdog’s Rookies & Sophomores tournament, saying there is a “40 percent chance” the Commanders’ rookie quarterback appears on the $10K-to-first roster. He explained that Daniels checks every finals-week box: dual-threat rushing juice, condensed target tree with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, and a Week 17 game that projects for pace against Dallas. His admission that Daniels “sometimes falls back” in ADP only sweetens the pot, letting drafters scoop him at a small discount when rooms chase Caleb Williams. Best Ball Guy’s bottom-line advice: treat Daniels as the single most important ceiling bet in the player pool and build rosters that either feature him or are specifically designed to beat him.

Sean Koerner preferred Brian Robinson Jr. over Austin Ekeler when choosing a Commanders back to target, even though Robinson’s ADP sits around RB28. Koerner argued Ekeler is entering decline—he thought the veteran might retire—and that the staff’s interest in multipurpose weapons like Deebo Samuel signals a reduced role for Ekeler. Robinson, on the other hand, flashed improved power and vision before injuries last year and now runs behind a line that could get a boost from the addition of Laremy ‘Tunsel.’ Koerner also likes that rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels keeps the offense on schedule with aggressive fourth-down decisions, creating more sustained drives and red-zone chances. In a contract year, Robinson is projected to handle inside-the-tackle work and touchdown equity while still offering a serviceable receiving floor. Koerner acknowledged rookie Krosky Merritt and sophomore Chris Rodriguez will mix in, but he views Robinson’s floor/ceiling combo as the clear value bet in Washington’s backfield.

Leone warned drafters not to chase Terry McLaurin at his current cost. ETR’s full-PPR projections have the veteran below ADP and Leone said he’s personally “even more concerned.” McLaurin has hovered in the low-20% target-share range for four straight seasons and now projects to play in a Jaden Daniels–led offense that will lean on quarterback runs and designed rush attempts. Leone compared McLaurin’s outcome distribution to George Pickens—who goes two rounds later in most drafts—but noted Washington’s slower pace and more conservative play-calling further cap McLaurin’s ceiling. Without a path to 8-plus targets per game or spike-week touchdown equity, Leone labeled him a clear avoid in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Bob Harris told listeners to slide Terry McLaurin down a few spots because the veteran is threatening to hold out of training camp while angling for a new deal that will likely land around $30 million per year. Harris expects Washington to get something done—rookie-deal quarterback Jaden Daniels gives them plenty of cap flexibility—but he warned that every day McLaurin misses increases the odds of an early-season ramp-up similar to Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb last year (Chase was WR37 in targets through four weeks with just an 18 % target share, Lamb sat at 21.6 % before jumping to 25 % after reporting). Training-camp reps still matter, and Harris is temporarily moving McLaurin from the mid-WR2 tier to the fringe WR3 range in both best ball and season-long formats until the contract is signed.

Matt Price said dynasty managers coming out of a rebuild should refuse any offer for Jaden Daniels because young rushing quarterbacks are the single most valuable chip in Superflex. He turned down a hypothetical package of Cam Ward plus two future first-rounders, stressing that Daniels’ age–22 rushing upside gives him league-winning weekly ceilings and multi-year insulation against value loss. Price contrasted Daniels with "top young pocket passers" like Joe Burrow, players he would actually consider trading for a haul, and concluded that flipping a rushing QB this early just re-creates the problem you spent years fixing.

Sean Koerner said he is slotting Deebo Samuel as a low-end WR3/Flex for now but will adjust aggressively based on August practice reports. Koerner is baking in roughly 2–2.5 designed carries a game—matching Washington’s tendency to spread backfield touches—and noted he could bump that projection to three if camp chatter confirms the staff plans to copy San Francisco’s “wide-back” role. The real swing factor, according to Koerner, is conditioning: in seasons where Samuel shows up ‘deboed-out’ he flashes elite burst and tackle-breaking and becomes unstoppable after the catch, but when he reports heavy (as he appeared at points last summer) he struggles to separate, looks a step slow with the ball in his hands, and finishes closer to a WR4. Because Samuel’s game is built on YAC rather than route nuance, Koerner will be glued to early-August photos and beat-writer speed notes before pushing him up or down his board.

JSU flipped on Brian Robinson in this draft, saying he is now comfortable clicking the Washington back because the touchdown equity is still there at today’s cost. Robinson handled 54 % of the Commanders’ carries inside the five despite missing three games, and JSU expects that rate to hold in 2025 even with rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels pilfering an occasional sneak. Robinson will never be a reception monster, but JSU stressed that inside-five work is the highest-value touch in best ball scoring. If the bruiser merely stays healthy, the combination of a 200-carry path and a majority share of green-zone plunges gives him week-winning spike potential well past pick 100.

JSU said that even though Jaden Daniels is the type of fantasy cheat code you normally lock in as your QB1/QB2 and move on, his play style still exposes drafters to more downside than the other early-round signal callers. Daniels carried the ball 118 times as a rookie and, per JSU, has "gotten better at getting down" but still absorbs too many hits. Daniels gutted out injuries last season, yet that very toughness tempts him to keep running instead of sliding. Because of that ongoing collision risk, JSU advised adding a third late-round quarterback—something he rarely does when he grabs an elite passer—to safeguard best-ball rosters against a multi-week absence. The insurance QB can be any value who free-falls after ADP, but the key is not relying on only two arms if one of them is Daniels.

Raymond Summerlin urged caution on Terry McLaurin even at an early-fourth-round ADP. He flagged several red indicators: McLaurin scored just four touchdowns last season despite 146 routes inside the red zone, and his 21% targets-per-route rate was below league average for a No. 1 wideout. Summerlin added that new OC Kliff Kingsbury did little to manufacture touches for perimeter receivers in Arizona, calling the scheme "not the creative usage we wanted." With Jahan Dotson and TE Ben Sinnott expected to siphon opportunities, Summerlin worries McLaurin’s ceiling is capped while his floor hinges on volatile TD variance, making him a pick he only makes when “the timer forces my hand.”

Greg Brainos reminded drafters that Austin Ekeler played just 52.5% of snaps last year yet remained heavily used at the goal line and in the passing game—both gold mines in half-PPR Best Ball scoring. Even if Ekeler is merely a 1B to Brian Robinson early, Brainos believes his red-zone role and receiving ceiling give him week-to-week standalone value with blow-up potential should the timeshare tilt his way. The veteran is a cheap path to RB2 production without having to chase early-round volume backs.

Warren Sharp said Jaden Daniels is a prime Year-2 breakout target for fantasy managers. Daniels already delivered a Hall-of-Fame level 88% completion rate on fourth-down throws as a rookie and guided 13-of-15 successful fourth-down runs without relying on QB sneaks, showcasing elite situational poise. Sharp expects a significant leap thanks to continuity with offensive coordinator Cliff Kingsbury and Daniels’ use of VR technology that lets him rehearse game situations at hyper speed. Washington further juiced his ceiling by adding Debo Samuel as a premier YAC threat and stalwart left tackle Laremy Tunsil while drafting OT Josh Connelly for depth. Given the typical sophomore jump for elite quarterbacks and Daniels’ improved supporting cast, Sharp views him as a strong buy in season-long formats despite potential team-level regression.

Warren Sharp advised betting the under on Washington’s 9.5-win total for 2025, stressing that the club’s 2024 surge was built on an unsustainably perfect storm. The Commanders set a modern NFL record by converting 87% of their fourth-down attempts (20-of-23), a rate Sharp says no team can maintain. Even with that unprecedented efficiency they still graded just 25th in overall defensive efficiency and 31st versus the run while feasting on a soft closing schedule that featured six straight backup or rookie quarterbacks from Week 12-18. Looking ahead, Washington owns the league’s third-worst net rest edge, draws three foes coming off a bye, endures four games with less rest than its opponent, and plays six of its nine toughest matchups on the road. Sharp believes the market has over-corrected by opening the Commanders as favorites in 12 games and pegs their win total too high, making the under the sharper side.