Sam Monson said Jaden Daniels is the clear front-runner among the new-wave passers to seize future MVP honors and eventually sit atop the league’s quarterback hierarchy. Monson pointed to Daniels being only 24 years old yet already flashing every trait evaluators crave: a live NFL-caliber arm, advanced coverage recognition, dynamic rushing athleticism, and what he called the "clutch gene"—highlighting last season’s late-game dime against Cincinnati as proof. He emphasized that Daniels dragged a roster that "shouldn’t be there" to an NFC Championship appearance, underscoring how much win equity he personally adds. Monson conceded a sophomore slump is possible but argued even a Year-2 dip wouldn’t derail the long-term trajectory given how many Year-3 explosions we’ve seen from elite QBs recently. His actionable takeaway: stash Daniels aggressively in dynasty and best-ball tournaments, sprinkle long-shot MVP futures before the market catches up, and treat him as a high-ceiling QB1 in season-long redraft leagues as early as 2025.

Chris Raybon said the only Washington ticket he could stomach on the plus side is their +600-ish price to win the NFC East. He already projects a modest 9.4 wins and is betting their regular-season UNDER because the Commanders draw a gauntlet of playoff-caliber opponents, but he acknowledged considerable upside if several boom-or-bust veterans actually stay healthy. He rattled off the potential swing pieces: Laremy Tunsil stabilizing one tackle spot, a bounce-back year from Deebo Samuel giving Jayden Daniels a true YAC weapon, and better overall health from the aging defensive core. Pair that ceiling with the historical chaos of an East that has not had a repeat champ in more than two decades plus the fact that Philadelphia lost both coordinator continuity and key depth, and Raybon believes the Commanders are the non-chalk team most capable of spiking a division title. Because that outcome is already baked into a win-total OVER or playoff-yes price, he argues the best pure value is the lotto-ticket division bet while fading them everywhere else.

Stuckey also fired on the Commanders UNDER 9.5 (juiced). His model shows 8.7 wins and he rattled off the reasons: Washington went 8-4 in one-possession games and posted several miracle comebacks – outcomes that rarely repeat. Their 2025 schedule toughens to eight dates versus 2024 playoff teams after facing only five a year ago. While the front office beefed up the trenches with Laremy Tunsil, Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Kindley, the secondary and LB corps remain shaky: safeties grade poorly, Bobby Wagner is 35, Marshon Lattimore may be washed and Terry McLaurin’s contract standoff hangs over the offense. Rookie upside (Josh Conerly at LT, Cooper Amos at CB) is real but unproven. Finally, Stuckey warned that sophomore QB Jayden Daniels, brilliant in Year 1, is still susceptible to a Stroud-style regression. Combine all that with a more competitive NFC East and he sees value fading Washington.

Andy Lang also leaned under 9.5 wins, stressing how Washington’s quirky schedule leaves no margin for error. The first 11 weeks bounce between soft spots (home Giants, Raiders, Dolphins) and brutal draws (at Packers, at Chiefs, home Lions) with a slew of coin-flip road games in Atlanta and Los Angeles. December is the killer: at Giants on Dec 14, home Eagles six days later, home Cowboys five days after that on Christmas, then a potential flexed finale versus Philadelphia. Mix in six primetime dates and multiple short weeks and Lang thinks even one missed start from Jaden Daniels — despite the Mariota insurance signing — could sink the season. Because books posted a near-perfect 9.5, he can only make a “slight” wager to the under, but he would have fired a full position if the market opened at 10.5.

Dan Alexander leaned to the under 9.5 wins for Washington, saying he would have "smashed" an under at 10.5 but can only make a smaller play at the current number. His case revolved around several regression flags: Washington owns a top-five worst rest differential with three separate short-week games (Packers in Week 2, Cowboys in Week 7, Eagles in Week 16), and the final month stacks Eagles-Cowboys-Eagles with virtually no extra rest. He noted the franchise has not posted back-to-back double-digit win seasons since Joe Gibbs in 1991, a 34-year drought that makes repeating 11-6 historically unlikely. Alexander also expects some sophomore pullback from phenom QB Jaden Daniels, drawing a parallel to C.J. Stroud’s statistical dip in Year 2. Finally, the Commanders finished top-five in several luck metrics last season, a signal that one-score and turnover fortune could swing the other way. All of that pushes him to fade Washington’s win total, even after acknowledging offseason additions like Kinlaw and Deebo Samuel.

Justin Herzig endorsed scooping Austin Ekeler in the double-digit rounds, calling him the rare veteran who offers both weekly usability and injury-driven ceiling. Herzig reminded listeners that Eric Bieniemy trusted Ekeler for 31 snaps per game last season despite poor Chargers efficiency, and new Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury has historically funneled red-zone work to pass-catching backs (see Chase Edmonds and James Conner in Arizona). Washington spent only a seventh-round pick on Jacory Kroski-Merritt, so there is minimal draft-capital threat behind Brian Robinson. Herzig projects Ekeler for 6–8 high-leverage touches per week right away—goal-line, two-minute and long-down-and-distance snaps—and a 15–18 touch workload if Robinson misses time. In his eyes that profile is perfect for RB5/6 builds that need points early while still holding tournament-winning upside.

Pat Kerrane called Brian Robinson one of the biggest fades at his new Underdog ADP of 89. Robinson cost pick-110 last summer, yet nothing in his profile has improved to justify a 20-spot bump. He handled only 47 % of snaps in 2024, failed to reach 18 touches after Week 6, and lost nearly all two-minute work to Chris Rodriguez. Kerrane doubts a Jacoby Brissett offense raises Robinson’s touchdown ceiling, and the running back’s meager passing role (0.60 yards per route run) makes true RB1 weeks virtually impossible. With higher-ceiling options such as Isaiah Pacheco or rookies Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Johnson available in the same range, Kerrane said he is striking Robinson from his player pool unless the price falls two full rounds.

Scott Ferrall grabbed the +850 on rookie Jayden Daniels to win MVP. Ferrall leaned on his long-standing NFC East rule that no team repeats as division champ, arguing that trend opens the door for Washington. If the Commanders really do leap to the top of the division, Daniels would have to post a monster year, automatically vaulting him into MVP consideration. Ferrall views that clear narrative pathway plus the 8.5-to-1 payout as a bet worth making today.

Greg Brainos argued Deebo Samuel is being unfairly faded into the WR4 range and remains one of the best upside swings on the board. Brainos highlighted new OC Klint Kubiak’s heavy screen usage—Denver’s WR2s averaged 5.8 designed touches per game under him—as an ideal fit for Samuel’s tackle-breaking skill set. He reminded listeners that Samuel averaged 18.6 PPR points in Weeks 1-5 last season before a hamstring strain and a bout with pneumonia that landed him in the hospital. Even while banged up, Samuel’s broken-tackle rate ranked top-three among receivers, and his healthy-game 2.4 yards per route run would have trailed only Tyreek Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown. With Washington projected to play from behind frequently and lacking an established slot threat, Brainos projected 120 targets plus 30–40 backfield touches, giving Samuel weekly WR2 floors and elite spike-week potential at a discounted ADP.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Austin Ekeler a “pretty bad pick” at his current 150-range Best Ball Mania 6 ADP. Pat argued the veteran’s ceiling has cratered after landing in Washington, where Brian Robinson Jr. is entrenched as the early-down hammer and rookie Jayden Daniels figures to siphon both red-zone carries and check-downs. He reminded viewers that Ekeler’s yards-per-touch fell from 5.2 to 3.5 last season and that only three RBs over age 29 have finished top-12 in Underdog scoring the past decade. Pat added that Washington’s Week-17 date with the Cowboys projects for one of the lowest totals on the board, further limiting Ekeler’s tournament-final upside. In his words, “You’re drafting a pass-catch specialist on a team that might throw 28 times a game—hard pass at pick 150.”

Mattek called Ty Felton a "screaming value" because the market has completely missed that Washington spent a late third-round pick on him. He reminded listeners that most drafters had already turned off the draft broadcast by pick 100, so Felton’s draft capital is going unnoticed—he is selected in fewer than 10 percent of Underdog rooms. The Commanders are expected to finish top-10 in pass attempts under Kliff Kingsbury, and the current WR3 spot behind Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson accounted for 79 targets last year. Mattek believes Felton’s 4.39 speed and 15-yard college aDOT make him the ideal vertical complement in an offense that will lean on quick tempo with rookie QB Jayden Daniels. At a near-free cost Felton can deliver two or three long-ball spike weeks that decide Best Ball playoff rounds, something Mattek says “absolutely nukes” the advance-rate math when it hits.

Davis Mattek labeled Deebo Samuel an ideal mid-round Eliminator target because his fantasy production is likely to be heavily front-weighted. Mattek argued that even if Brandon Aiyuk’s contract stand-off drags into September, Kyle Shanahan will manufacture early-season touches for Deebo—jet sweeps, RPO slants, and red-zone screens—that can pop for 28-to-30 points in any given week. Those spike scores matter more than season-long consistency in a head-to-head, single-elimination format where one blow-up outing can advance you. Mattek also noted that the 49ers draw two dome games (at DET, at NO) before Week 10 and face only one top-10 pass defense in that span, making Deebo’s early-season path even softer. He is fine swallowing the late-year injury risk because Eliminator payouts start in Week 4, not Week 17.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound trashed a viewer’s selection of Austin Ekeler at 158 overall, calling it “gross” despite the nine-pick ADP discount. Pat pointed out that the 29-year-old back enters a brand-new Washington offense where he will split early-down carries with Brian Robinson Jr. and likely cede most high-value goal-line touches to rookie bruiser Jaylen Wright. He said Ekeler’s efficiency cratered to 3.5 yards per carry last year and that, at this stage, you are looking at a weekly range of four fantasy points or zero if the passing-down scripts do not break his way. Given the Commanders’ projected win total of 6.5 and a run-blocking unit that ranked 29th in PFF grades, Pat advised passing on Ekeler entirely unless his price free-falls into the 180s.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound echoed a viewer’s point that “Zach Ertz is probably a very good value in this contest.” Because weekly consistency is rewarded just as heavily in September as in the three-team Week-17 final, Pat prefers a proven target earner like Ertz at his depressed ADP. Waiting to select Ertz frees him to hammer running backs and wide receivers early while still rostering a tight end who can post startable scores right out of the gate. He also reminded drafters to monitor bye weeks so Ertz’s early production isn’t negated by overlapping rests with other tight ends.

Cody Woodman called Zach Ertz a "smash pick" in the final rounds, arguing that Jayden Daniels will lean on the veteran the same way he did late last year at Arizona. Washington added almost no target competition after Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, and Ertz averaged a 24% first-read share in his three healthy games with the Cardinals. Cody noted that Daniels posted a league-high 29% usage rate on throws 0–10 yards in college, a profile that dovetails with Ertz’s aDOT. With Ben Sinnott profiling more as an H-back and Logan Thomas gone, Cody projects 80–85 targets and ranks Ertz as the TE18 while he’s being drafted outside the top-28 tight ends in BBM6.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound called Zach Ertz “criminally under-drafted” after the veteran slipped to the very back of the tight-end-two range. Pat noted Washington added virtually nothing else at the position—only rookie Ben Sinnott profiles as real competition—and new OC Kliff Kingsbury historically targets tight ends on stick and option routes (Ertz averaged 7.8 targets per game in Kingsbury’s 2021 Arizona offense). Because Jayden Daniels routinely peppers underneath targets, Pat projects a 17–18% target share for Ertz whenever he is healthy, easily enough to turn in low-end TE1 weeks in half-point formats. He believes Ertz’s combination of route volume, shallow aDOT efficiency, and zero depth-chart threat makes him a perfect last-round safety valve for drafters who punted the position.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound said Terry McLaurin is being overlooked despite being "a major draft winner." Pat’s logic is that Jayden Daniels landing in Washington removes the perpetual quarterback headache, giving McLaurin the most accurate passer of his career and solidifying him as an every-week chain-mover. Because Brian Robinson’s ADP surge has dominated Commanders talk, Pat thinks McLaurin’s price has stayed too low, making him a "safe click" whenever he slides past pick 50. In Best Ball he likes locking in McLaurin’s reliable 23% career target share and believes Daniels’ willingness to push the ball outside raises McLaurin’s ceiling without sacrificing floor.

Jason Moore said you should not pay 2024 prices for Terry McLaurin because last season’s 13 touchdowns are a classic outlier. McLaurin reached that total on fewer than 125 targets; Moore noted that scenario has happened only ten times in league history and nine of those ten receivers lost an average of 5.5 touchdowns the next season. If McLaurin repeats the 1,100 yards but falls to roughly seven scores, his weekly output drops to about 11 PPR points—right in line with his career norms instead of last year’s WR1 spike. Moore advised letting another drafter chase the highlight season and suggested dangling McLaurin in dynasty or keeper trades before the market corrects.

Steve Palazzolo argued that fourth-round pick Jaylin Lane is a name to circle in best-ball pools. Lane posted eye-catching reps at the Senior Bowl, torching highly-touted corner Garrian Porter with sudden route breaks despite giving up four inches in height. Palazzolo believes the Virginia Tech burner can immediately slot into Dyami Brown’s vacated field-stretching role alongside Terry McLaurin and newly-acquired Deebo Samuel. He added that Lane’s kickoff and punt-return experience gains extra value under the 2024 rule change moving the touchback line up, which should create more live returns and thus more all-purpose yardage. The combination of 4.3-speed, a clear schematic niche, and bonus special-teams points makes Lane an intriguing final-round dart in best-ball tournaments where isolated long TDs and return scores spike weekly ceilings.

Sam Monson said seventh-rounder Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the kind of back who can pay off immediately in fantasy despite minimal draft capital. Monson highlighted that Croskey-Merritt posted the best deceleration and short-area metrics recorded at the Shrine Bowl, confirming on-tape quick cutting ability. He noted the Arizona transfer averaged 6.3 yards per carry in his lone 2023 appearance after leaving New Mexico, and Renner had been "pounding the table" for him as a Day-2 talent. Washington’s depth chart is open behind Brian Robinson and 29-year-old Austin Ekeler, giving Croskey-Merritt a realistic path to meaningful touches or even a starting role. Monson concluded that those athletic traits plus a thin backfield make Croskey-Merritt worth a final-round stab in best-ball or deep season-long formats because the payoff far outweighs the cost.

Andy Holloway dubbed Brian Robinson this season’s “big-salad” vegetable — the unsexy but reliably nutritious staple you plug into line-ups every week. Holloway said Robinson simply “gets the job done,” highlighting his steady workload and the fact Washington ignored running back in the draft, signaling continued faith in him. While Robinson lacks splash-play juice, Holloway expects the second-year Sam Howell offense to lean on his between-the-tackles consistency for red-zone trips, giving managers a bankable RB2 who rarely tanks your score.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that Deebo Samuel’s current late-fourth/early-fifth-round best-ball price assumes he will once again log 25-plus designed rushing attempts. Pat thinks that is optimistic. He noted Kyle Shanahan dialed up only 23 carries for Deebo last year despite multiple Christian McCaffrey injury scares, and said beat writers have hinted the staff wants to preserve the wideout by trimming that gadget volume to “15, maybe even fewer than 20” totes. Because nearly 30 percent of Samuel’s fantasy points since 2021 have come via the ground game, Pat believes even a modest rushing pull-back destroys his weekly ceiling and leaves drafters paying WR2 prices for a volatile WR3. Add in Deebo’s chronic soft-tissue issues—he has missed eight games over the past two seasons—and Pat is fading him unless the ADP slides at least a full round.

Tyler Knaeble highlighted Zach Ertz as a screaming late-round value, noting that in Underdog’s Marathon contest the veteran consistently goes around pick 150—roughly a 10-spot premium to his price in regular Best Ball Mania drafts. Knaeble argued the Marathon ADP is a truer reflection of Ertz’s worth once drafters shed age bias and focus on role: Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses have historically peppered tight ends (23% target share in Arizona from 2019-22), and Washington lacks a proven red-zone weapon behind Terry McLaurin. Ertz averaged 7.9 targets per game before his 2022 knee injury and showed he can still separate in limited 2023 snaps with Arizona. At a cost cheaper than rookies who may not see the field, Knaeble is comfortable locking Ertz in as TE2 on hyper-fragile builds or pairing him with a rookie like Brock Bowers to secure early-season floor.

Pat Fantasy Dog Pound warned that Brian Robinson Jr.’s touchdown upside looks shaky at his current Best Ball Mania ADP around pick 100. Pat pointed to new quarterback Jaden Daniels, who logged more red-zone and goal-line carries (15) than Robinson’s own 12–13 attempts in 2023, as a likely TD vulture again this season. With Washington repeatedly leaning on Daniels for fourth-and-short and inside-the-five situations last year, Pat doubts the coaching staff will suddenly flip that tendency. He’s fine clicking Robinson only as an RB4 on zero-RB builds, but if you still need quarterback or tight-end help in that range he prefers passing entirely, arguing Robinson must exceed last year’s volume just to break even on ADP.

Jason Moore called Brian Robinson Jr. the "low-key biggest winner" among veteran backs after Washington bypassed the entire running-back class. Robinson opened 2024 averaging 17.3 touches and six red-zone carries per game before a mid-season scheme shift, and now faces only a 30-year-old Austin Ekeler for competition. Moore stressed that new OC Kliff Kingsbury historically feeds a lead back inside the five (Cardinals ranked top-8 in goal-line rush rate three straight seasons) and that Robinson’s 18 receptions in Weeks 1-7 proved he is not game-script dependent. Despite that profile, current Sleeper ADP has him behind Jalen Warren, Aaron Jones and rookie Tyrone Tracy. Moore is loading up on Robinson as an every-week RB2 with spike-week TD upside and suggested prioritizing him as a Round 8 pivot when the WR run dries up.

Perrault grabbed 9-to-1 that the Washington Commanders’ first selection will be a safety. Drawing on a conversation with analyst Derrick Brown, he emphasized Ron Rivera’s roster lacks a defensive "quarterback" and the class features two high-end safeties who could fill that void. Given Washington’s established edge rush and corner depth, he believes a play-calling center-fielder such as Georgia’s Malaki Starks or Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin makes the most schematic sense, especially with new owner Josh Harris wanting to stabilize the back end. At +900, Perrault labeled it a justified half-unit flyer.

James Weaver warned that Washington could be the surprise third running-back landing spot and sprinkled the Commanders ‘To Draft a RB in Round 1’ at 11-to-1 with TreVeyon Henderson circled as the target. Weaver noted the club’s public waffling on Austin Ekeler, inconsistent faith in Brian Robinson, and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s history of leaning on explosive three-down backs. Henderson checks those boxes with 4.38 speed, 36-inch vert and proven pass-pro chops. Weaver admitted he ultimately stayed on Raybon’s Under 2.5 RBs position, but views the long-odds Commanders stab as a cheap hedge that cashes if Washington shocks the market late Thursday night.

Derek Brown highlighted Washington at 10‑to‑1 to open its draft with a running back, labeling it a "DBro special" worth a sprinkle. He noted Washington’s three glaring roster holes—running back, cornerback, and safety—and argued new GM Adam Peters could address the latter two positions later in a deep class, leaving pick 29 for a premium ball‑carrier. Brown sees the bet hinging on TreVeyon Henderson’s rising buzz; if the Buckeye star sneaks into Round 1, Amarian Hampton or Jonathan Brooks would still leave the Commanders several viable paths to pull the trigger. With coaches Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury both favoring run‑heavy schemes, Brown believes the 10‑1 price understates the probability Washington makes Henderson or Hampton its first selection.

Thor Nystrom sent Georgia’s Mykel Williams to Washington at No. 29, arguing the pick lines up perfectly with Dan Quinn’s mandate for edges who “play the run like linebackers.” Williams set a clean edge on 82 % of graded run snaps last season—best among SEC starters—and still chipped in 41 pressures despite Georgia’s containment‑heavy rules. Nystrom emphasized that Quinn’s Cowboys benched Dante Fowler mid‑season because of run gaps even as he piled up sacks; the new staff will not repeat that mistake. Williams’ 34‑inch arms and 6‑5/270 frame give him the strength to rag‑doll tight ends while still flashing a ghost move that clocked a 0.78‑second get‑off at the Dawgs’ pro day. Books have yet to adjust: his draft‑slot O/U sits at 31.5 and ‘First Edge Defender drafted after pick 20 – Williams’ pays +300. Thor advised rushing to the window before the positional run he anticipates pushes Williams into the mid‑twenties consensus.

Matt Perrault, referencing a conversation with Derek Brown (DeBrow), expressed confidence in the Washington Commanders using their first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a safety. Perrault cited DeBrow's analysis that the Commanders have substantially improved their offense, adding Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel to protect and support quarterback Jim Daniels. Consequently, Washington is likely prioritizing defensive improvement at pick number 29. Perrault particularly highlighted the fit for a safety, mentioning Malachi Starks from Georgia as a strong candidate projected by multiple draft analysts, including 'the33rdTeam.com.' He also mentioned the potential for Washington trading slightly up or down in the draft but still focusing their first pick on a safety, making this bet appealing at its +900 odds.

Andy Holloway defended Terry McLaurin’s spot inside his top‑15 ranks, reminding listeners the veteran just posted an 82‑114‑1,251 line with a career‑high 13 touchdowns and a 4‑yard‑higher aDOT than similarly ranked Ladd McConkey. While acknowledging 13 scores is unlikely to repeat, Holloway still expects double‑digit TDs because rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels showed a tendency to pepper his WR1 in the red zone at LSU. Debo Samuel’s arrival does siphon some target share, yet Holloway noted the Commanders’ coaching staff has openly talked about featuring pass‑catching running backs—something that historically stretches defenses and frees McLaurin downfield. With an ADP around WR16 (late third round), Holloway views him as a bargain WR1/2 whose worst‑case range of outcomes is a high‑floor WR2 season.