Paruk called Over 53.5 receiving yards for Deebo Samuel a strong look. Washington funnels him bubble screens, slants, and jet motion touches that let him pile up yards after the catch. Against a Packers defense that concedes underneath volume to limit deep shots, Paruk expects Samuel’s manufactured opportunities and tackle-breaking ability to push him into the mid-60s.

Paruk leaned Under 1.5 passing touchdowns on Jayden Daniels at –151. Washington attempted only 26 passes in its opener and figures to keep the ball on the ground to protect a shaky line. With Green Bay’s secondary healthy and a disruptive edge rush waiting, Paruk doubts Daniels will see enough red-zone drop-backs to reach two scoring throws.

Paruk endorsed Over 45.5 rushing yards for Jayden Daniels at –111. Washington builds designed keepers into every script, and Daniels’ athleticism is a safety valve when protection breaks down. Paruk expects Green Bay’s aggressive, up-field rush to open scramble lanes and anticipates 8-10 carries—enough volume for Daniels to clear the mid-40s even without a breakaway run.

Michael Fiddle recommended betting Austin Ekeler over 22.5 rushing yards at -115. He expects Washington to lean on the veteran because Green Bay’s upgraded pass rush, spearheaded by Micah Parsons, will keep Ekeler on the field for pass protection. Fiddle reasoned that using Ekeler solely as a blocker would telegraph plays, so Kliff Kingsbury will mix in handoffs and allow audible draw calls when Ekeler is the lone back. He also highlighted market action that drove the prop up from 20.5 to 22.5 yards, signaling sharp interest on the over, and reminded readers that both offenses posted near-50/50 run-pass splits in Week 1. All three factors point to Ekeler clearing a modest rushing line.

Michael Fiddle broke down the spread movement for Thursday night and explained why he is no longer laying the chalk with Green Bay after the market pushed the line from Packers -3 (-115) to -3.5 (-105). Fiddle stressed that roughly 15% of NFL games finish with a three-point margin and that moving on or off the key number of 3 is worth about 22 cents in betting value. Because the half-point jump yielded only 12 cents of value, he believes the Commanders now hold the edge at +3.5. He personally grabbed Green Bay at the opener but said anyone betting this game today should either take Washington plus the hook or play the Packers moneyline instead of the spread.

Rohit Ponnaiya said Jayden Daniels is a good bet to hit the Over 21.5 completions prop at -105 on Thursday Night Football. He pointed out that Green Bay limited Detroit to 13 points in Week 1 yet still surrendered 31 short-area completions to Jared Goff, showing a willingness to concede underneath throws while preventing explosives. Washington opened as a 3.5-point road underdog, a script that should push Daniels’ drop-backs well beyond last week's 30 attempts in a comfortable win. Ponnaiya added that three Week 1 drops masked Daniels’ efficiency and that the quarterback had exceeded 21.5 completions in each of his previous nine full starts coming into 2025. With Green Bay’s bend-but-don’t-break coverage inviting quick passes, Ponnaiya expects Daniels to rack up volume and cash the Over.

Chris Farley grabbed Deebo Samuel anytime TD at +190, arguing Washington will have to manufacture offense through its versatile wideout because Green Bay’s front just stone-walled Detroit for 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts. With Austin Ekeler and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt facing a brick wall, Farley expects Scott Turner to scheme Samuel on jet motions and red-zone gadget plays. Samuel commanded a team-high nine targets and caught seven passes in Week 1, making him Washington’s most reliable scoring threat against a run-stuffing defense.

Chris Farley faded Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 42.5 rushing yards. He expects Green Bay’s ferocious Micah Parsons-led pass rush to force Washington into more passing sets, reducing the rookie’s snaps because he is unproven in pass protection. Farley also warned of a crowded backfield with Chris Rodriguez potentially active and Austin Ekeler handling catch-up duties. He called Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 line inflated: 82 yards came on 10 carries but 42 yards were on one run, leaving 9 totes for 40 yards. The same Packers defense just held David Montgomery to 2.3 YPC. In a likely shootout, Farley believes Ekeler fits the script better and sees limited rushing volume for Croskey-Merritt.

Chris Farley backed Washington +3.5 on Thursday night, arguing the market is underrating how well Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are playing. He pointed out that Daniels went 19-of-30 for 233 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT while adding 68 rushing yards behind a 220-yard team ground effort against the Giants’ vaunted front. Washington’s defense also held New York to 231 total yards and sacked Russell Wilson twice. Farley acknowledged Green Bay’s impressive 24-13 win over Detroit but noted the Packers eased off after leading 24-6 early in the fourth quarter. With the Commanders fresh off an NFC title-game run, he expects a back-and-forth battle and thinks the hook on a field-goal spread is valuable on a short week at Lambeau.

Ducey likes Jacory Croskey-Merritt over 37.5 rushing yards at -110. Washington hammered the ground game in Week 1—32 carries, 220 yards, 6.9 YPC—while the Packers’ defensive stats were flattered by Detroit abandoning the run after an early 10-point hole. PFF still graded Green Bay’s run D only 18th. Croskey-Merritt, a seventh-round rookie who averaged roughly 4.0 YPC in preseason, earned a 33% snap share and ripped off 10 carries for 82 yards (including a 42-yard burst) versus New York. Ducey believes the Commanders’ run-heavy identity and the tailback’s explosive first impression make this number a bargain.

Kenny Ducey backed Jayden Daniels to top 50 rushing yards at +107 in his Commanders-Packers same-game parlay. Ducey pointed out that Green Bay’s coverage earned the 4th-best PFF grade in Week 1, yet its pass rush underwhelmed—something he expects to change with new arrival Micah Parsons screaming off the edge. Washington’s line let Daniels operate with just 2.77 seconds to throw (13th-fewest among 33 QBs) against a weaker Giants front, so Ducey anticipates even less pocket time on Thursday. The "second-year" quarterback already ran 11 times for 68 yards last week and has logged 9+ carries in seven of his last nine games (playoffs included), averaging 60 rushing yards. With volume, matchup, and recent form all pointing the same way, Ducey likes the alt-line over for Daniels’ legs.

Alex Christenson advised backing Zach Ertz for an Anytime Touchdown on TNF. He pointed out that Jayden Daniels looked Ertz’s way early and often—Ertz ranked second on Washington in total targets and led the club in red-zone targets during Week 1, cashing one for a score. Christenson believes Green Bay’s secondary holds up well on the perimeter, funneling passes inside where the veteran tight end still excels at finding soft spots despite diminished speed. With a projected shootout and Ertz commanding Daniels’ trust near the goal line, Christenson likes the + odds for the TE to score again in Week 2.

JutPicks backed Deebo Samuel at +190 to find the paint on Thursday night. He pointed out that Green Bay’s front just held Detroit to 46 rushing yards on 22 attempts, making a traditional ground attack a tough sell for Washington. With Austin Ekeler banged up and only rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt behind him, JutPicks expects Eric Bieniemy to dial up Samuel’s trademark jet-sweep and screen packages, especially inside the 20. The wideout commanded 9 targets and pulled in 7 receptions in Week 1, a clear sign the offense already funnels touches his way. Add in the game’s lofty 48.5 total and the implied need for creative short-yardage solutions, and Samuel’s hybrid usage profile becomes JutPicks’ favorite anytime TD angle.

Jacob Camenker targeted Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt at +210 for an anytime touchdown. The seventh-round rookie paced Washington’s backs with 10 carries, 82 rushing yards and a score in Week 1 while tying Austin Ekeler for the team lead with two red-zone rushes. Green Bay did stonewall Detroit at 2.1 YPC, but Camenker likes the + odds because Croskey-Merritt has already carved out high-leverage work near the goal line.

Jacob Camenker recommended the OVER 2.5 receptions for Austin Ekeler at -160. Green Bay just surrendered 14 running-back catches to Detroit, a result Camenker attributes to the Pack inviting horizontal throws. Ekeler has logged at least three grabs in four straight games for Washington dating to last season, so the veteran’s short-area role plus the Packers’ soft underneath zone make three receptions a reasonable floor in what Camenker expects to be a higher-scoring affair than Washington’s 21-6 opener.

Jacob Camenker said to hit Ertz’s OVER 32.5 receiving yards at -110. The 34-year-old tight end drew five targets in Week 1 (second on the team) and caught Jayden Daniels’ only touchdown. Camenker pointed to Green Bay’s struggles against the position, noting Sam LaPorta tagged the Packers for 79 yards last Sunday. If Daniels maintains even a “modest clip” of looks toward Ertz, the veteran should clear a modest line that sits nearly 50% below LaPorta’s total.

Andy Lang bet Jayden Daniels to exceed 31.5 pass attempts. Daniels still threw 30 times last week despite Washington controlling the game from kickoff, which tells Lang the staff is comfortable letting him air it out. He anticipates a tighter contest in Green Bay and thinks the Commanders will lean on Daniels.

Lang’s favorite derivative is Washington’s first-half team total over 10.5. The Commanders averaged 14 first-half points last season and matched that number in Week 1. He prefers their lower bar to Green Bay’s 13.5 because it can be cashed with a touchdown and a field goal.

Bill Harrelson Picks played Austin Ekeler over 22.5 rushing yards in the division clash with the Giants. He acknowledged the 5-of-10 hit rate last year but argued the context is different: with Brian Robinson now in San Francisco and an unproven committee behind him, Washington should lean on Ekeler’s veteran reliability in Week 1. The number is already 25.5 on other books, creating immediate CLV. Ekeler logged 38 and 42 rushing yards in two meetings with New York last season despite a secondary role, and the Giants run defense ranked bottom-five, yielding 111 rushing yards per game. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels further stresses the front, opening lanes for simple inside zone, so Harrelson expects 8-10 carries—plenty to crack this modest total.

Foshow Fox laid the 6.5 points with Washington in their Week-1 clash against the Giants. He called New York “not all that good,” questioned the franchise’s lack of meaningful offseason improvement, and said the change at quarterback “isn’t a big deal.” Conversely, Fox said he is a full-on “Jayden Daniels believer,” expecting the rookie’s dual-threat ability to stress a Giants defense that finished bottom-five in EPA per play allowed last season. With what he views as a talent gap and only one key number to clear, Fox believes Washington wins by a touchdown or more and labeled the Commanders a straight-forward spread bet.

Assigning a 7-confidence win and 4-confidence cover at ‑6, Joyner praised Washington for surrounding Jayden Daniels with a fortified line plus Deebo Samuel, re-signed Terry McLaurin and potential RB upgrade Jacory Croskey-Merritt. He expects defensive improvement, too. The Giants respond with Russell Wilson, who still ranked top-4 in both vertical categories last season, and rookie Malik Nabers, but roster depth lags. Given home-field and superior two-way talent, Joyner’s model leans Commanders.

Ian Hanford laid Washington –5.5, citing New York’s 1-7 straight-up and ATS record in its last eight home openers. He pointed out the Giants’ offense returns 10 of 11 starters that ‘struggled mightily’ in 2024, with the lone change being “probably-below-average” quarterback Russell Wilson. Conversely, Washington keeps offensive continuity around Jayden Daniels and Hanford expects the second-year passer to punch in a late touchdown to secure the spread. Betting angle: trust the more coherent offense and fade a franchise that perpetually starts slow.

Jimmie Kaylor reported that the SportsLine computer simulation model – which has returned more than $7,000 for $100 bettors on its top-rated NFL picks and posted a 31-15 record in 2024 – projects Washington to clear the 6-point spread at home against New York in Week 1. The model ran the matchup 10,000 times and graded Commanders ‑6 as one of its strongest plays. Kaylor highlighted several on-field reasons baked into the projection: Washington is coming off an NFC Championship appearance, quarterback Jayden Daniels is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, the front office added All-Pro wideout Deebo Samuel to give Daniels another explosive option, and the defense’s already formidable front seven was reinforced by veteran pass-rusher and former Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller. DraftKings lists the Commanders with a 9.5-win total, underscoring elevated expectations. New York, by contrast, is viewed as a rebuilding club, making the model comfortable laying nearly a touchdown. Bettors looking to fade public uncertainty around Washington’s 2024 breakout are advised to grab Commanders ‑6 before the number potentially creeps toward a full touchdown.

Laying six with Washington, Prisco noted Jayden Daniels enters year two after an "impressive rookie showing" while Russell Wilson makes his Giants debut with rookie Jaxson Dart waiting in the wings. He warned New York’s pass rush could trouble Daniels but still projected a 26-23 Commanders victory, trusting Eric Bieniemy’s offense to do just enough to cover at home.

Saracini laid 6.5 with Washington, reminding bettors the Commanders finished sixth in scoring a year ago and locked up Terry McLaurin while adding Deebo Samuel as a complementary weapon. He expects Jayden Daniels to exploit a Giants defense that surrendered 346 yards per game in 2024. With New York’s secondary thin and pass rush bottom-five in pressure rate, Saracini envisions multiple chunk plays and little resistance once Washington gets inside the 20.

Kendall Valenzuela said Chris Rodriguez should be scooped off waivers because Washington just dealt Brian Robinson Jr. to San Francisco and immediately singled Rodriguez out for goal-line duties in the second preseason game. On only 34 carries last year Rodriguez registered a 74 % success rate, a metric The Athletic highlighted as elite. Valenzuela expects the Commanders to lean on Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt and Rodriguez for early-down and short-yardage work, giving Rodriguez weekly touchdown upside that is almost never available in a back who is only 6 % rostered on Yahoo.

Matthew Betz said he is drafting Austin Ekeler aggressively at his current price because he expects him to "lead this backfield in touches" for Washington. Betz forecasts 13-16 opportunities per game after noting Ekeler handled a 70 % snap share and 15 touches in the one contest Brian Robinson missed last season. He believes the veteran’s pass-catching résumé (four 70-reception seasons) and proven goal-line chops give him RB2 upside even if Jayden Daniels and Chris Rodriguez siphon a few short-yardage looks. Betz dismissed age concerns, explaining last year’s workload dip stemmed from two concussions (Weeks 4 and 12) rather than physical decline. With home-league drafters fading the soon-to-be-30 back, Betz views Ekeler as a clear value in both redraft and best-ball formats.

Tom Strachan flipped his stance on Austin Ekeler and is hammering him at current ADP, especially in full-PPR formats. Strachan highlighted that Ekeler finished 12th in receiving yards among running backs last season even though he ran only the 31st-most routes, translating to a 7th-highest target share (11%) and 4th in yards per target. With rookie quarterback Jaden Daniels expected to be more comfortable in the passing game, Strachan sees room for an uptick in designed routes. Goal-line usage is the swing factor—Ekeler logged just three red-zone carries in 2024, so even a modest bump would be “a massive opportunity." Despite the Brian Robinson trade and the offseason buzz around seventh-rounder JCM, Strachan believes the front office views Ekeler as the clear touch leader. His price barely budged post-trade, making him a Round-7 steal who checks both pass-catching and potential goal-line boxes in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense.

Dwain McFarland acknowledged Jacory Croskey-Merritt's meteoric ADP rise but is still buying at pick 106 on ESPN, arguing the rookie could see 60 % of snaps as early as Week 1. He is not worried about Austin Eckler or Chris Rodriguez taking enough early-down work to kill value and thinks a zero-RB build can support taking Croskey-Merritt's in Round 5 of high-stakes drafts. McFarland cautioned that the price introduces bust risk if usage opens in a three-back rotation, yet sees top-20 upside by mid-season if Bill captures the early-down and half of the receiving work.

Polzin labeled Zach Ertz a strong mid-tier option at just under $4,000. Even though the Giants allowed limited tight-end production last year, he sees Ertz functioning as rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ primary safety blanket. Ertz has practiced all camp, flashed chemistry with Daniels, and was “extremely productive” in this offense a season ago. Polzin expects reliable volume that can 2-3x salary in cash builds without punting the position.

Polzin explained that should New York keep the game close or even jump ahead, Austin Ekeler immediately becomes the ceiling play over Washington’s cheaper backs. From Weeks 1-11 last season Ekeler fell below double-digits just twice (4.0 and 7.8 DK points) thanks to elite target volume. With Terry still sidelined and “Devo Samuel” easing in, Polzin expects Sam Howell to lean on the veteran he trusts in the two-minute drill and check-down game. That passing usage plus early-season freshness makes Ekeler, at a discounted Week-1 salary, an ideal leverage play against presumed Commanders chalk.

Geoff Fienberg took Washington because their posted win total sits at 9.5 despite last year’s NFC Championship appearance. He noted the Commanders still possess multiple offensive weapons and “what could be a top-three quarterback if he continues to play like he did last year.” The mismatch between ceiling and line made Fienberg view Washington as the clear value of the round.

Hribar drafted Washington’s over despite the league’s toughest slate (most games versus 2024 double-digit winners). He argued the organization finally ‘has quarterback right,’ patched its offensive-line holes, and again poured free-agent resources into the defense. Beating out the Giants and Cowboys is the path he envisions, and he believes the upgraded trenches give them staying power in those in-division slugfests.

Jake Ciely said Deebo Samuel should command roughly 100 targets in Washington while still getting designed carries, projecting about 20 combined touches in many games. Ciely argued that Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was forced to throw to sub-par pass-catchers last season, so Samuel instantly becomes the most reliable option in the offense. Even if Samuel falls short of the 130-target elite tier, the mix of triple-digit looks and backfield usage is enough for him to finish comfortably in weekly wide-receiver-three range for season-long fantasy line-ups.

Ian Hartitz ranked Terry McLaurin well below the consensus, citing target-volume worries. Even with Noah Brown as his only competition last season McLaurin saw just 117 targets, and Hartitz believes Cliff Kingsbury’s spread scheme plus the addition of Deebo Samuel will keep the share in the low-20-percent range. Hartitz also expects touchdown regression—McLaurin ‘lived and died’ on six-point plays in 2024—and would rather chase players like Xavier Worthy or Calvin Ridley who could see 30-40 more looks. He views McLaurin as a volatile WR2 rather than a bankable WR1.

Jake Ciely never moved Terry McLaurin out of his top-15 wide receivers during the hold-in and explained why he is staying there. McLaurin already has chemistry with quarterback Jaden Daniels and full command of Cliff Kingsbury’s playbook, so missing preseason reps was a non-issue. Ciely projects roughly nine touchdowns—down from last year’s 11 but still strong—and expects Daniels to throw 20-30 more times than he did as a rookie. Because McLaurin rarely leaves the lineup and offers a solid weekly floor, Ciely prefers him over similarly ranked but more fragile options.

Jake Ciely said Austin Ekeler is the one running back in the current RB22-30 blob who does not bring bench-level downside. Ciely pointed to Ekeler sitting in street clothes for the final preseason game. The other young backs played as proof the staff already views him as the lead option. Even if bruiser Chris Rodriguez pops up for a few goal-line carries, Ekeler’s pass-game role is locked in, giving him an RB2 floor and RB1 ceiling in half- and full-PPR formats. Ciely advised taking Ekeler over similarly priced backs whose workloads could evaporate by mid-season.

Mike Wright planted his flag on Austin Ekeler ending 2025 as a top-18 fantasy running back. In the three games Brian Robinson missed last season, Ekeler averaged 15 opportunities and posted weekly finishes of RB16 and RB6. He still drew 3.1 targets per game and his 1.84 yards per route run ranked fourth among RBs, right behind Jahmyr Gibbs. Ekeler's first-read target rate sat in the same neighborhood as Alvin Kamara and Breece Hall. Goal-line work is the swing factor: Ekeler converted 3 TDs on 5 carries inside the five while Robinson needed 13 tries for 4 scores. Wright expects Washington’s high-octane attack and Ekeler established receiving role to push him comfortably inside the top-20, with upside to flirt with the RB15 line.

Ian Hartitz advised targeting Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt once the top-28 running backs and top-45 receivers are off the board. Washington shipped Brian Robinson to San Francisco and then rested Croskey-Merritt with the starters in the preseason finale, a signal Hartitz reads as confidence that the seventh-rounder will open 2025 as the early-down option in a unit that finished 5th in scoring last year. Austin Ekeler still handles pass downs and Chris Rodriguez might mix in short yardage, but Hartitz believes the smoke signifies fire: Bill is the favorite for 10-15 carries a week. Given the historical scarcity of day-three backs carving big roles, Hartitz still likes him as a sleeper rather than a workhorse, but the cost is outrageously cheap for a potential starting back in a top offense.

Peter Overzet said Jaylin Lane belongs on every late-round draft list after ticking three sleeper boxes. Washington spent a Round-4 pick on the 4.34-speed wideout, then rested him alongside the starters in the final preseason game—an approach that usually signals a Week 1 role is locked in. Overzet added that Lane will be catching passes from breakout star Jayden Daniels and faces almost no competition behind Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel on an otherwise thin depth chart. The mix of verified track speed, quarterback rapport, and immediate snap opportunity gives Lane real spike-week upside as a last-round flier or first waiver claim.

Davis Mattek took Jacory Croskey-Merritt 97th overall in a DraftKings Best Ball and explained why he thinks the market is still too low on him even after a surge to consensus RB31. Mattek noted strong college metrics— Croskey-Merrittgained a first down on 37.2% of his runs and posted an elite break-away rate at New Mexico State before transferring to Arizona. Washingto shopped Brian Robinson Jr., whose 2023 line of 178-733-5 rushing and 36-368-4 receiving came on just 4.1 YPC. Mattek believes Croskey-Merritt can top 4.5–4.8 YPC and, if he seizes the starting role, become a classic "power-law" player who decides Best Ball tournaments by smashing in Weeks 15-17. Limited college receiving (only seven catches in his final season) adds risk, but the Commanders’ vacancy and his explosive profile give him true league-winning upside at a still-affordable tag.

Tom Strachan urged scooping Austin Ekeler at RB43. Even in a down year he recorded the 12th-most receiving yards among backs (366) while ranking 7th in target share (11 %) and 4th in yards per target. With Brian Robinson likely gone, Ekeler could dominate passing downs and maybe inherit goal-line looks. Strachan sees a path to top-24 RB production at a double-digit-round price.

Andy Holloway warned listeners not to rely on Austin Ekeler's current ADP, calling it "impossible for the market to catch up in time." He expects someone in every draft to grab Ekeler well ahead of the list price and urged managers to flag him on their cheat sheets so he is not buried. Holloway’s takeaway: if you draft strictly by the queue, you will miss a proven dual-threat back whose move to Washington has not yet been fully baked into draft platforms. Move Ekeler up your ranks or be prepared to watch another manager capitalize on the lag.

Andy Holloway cautioned that Austin Ekeler’s touchdown upside could evaporate in Washington after head coach Dan Quinn confirmed rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. will "handle the short-yardage goal-line opportunities." Holloway noted that if the backfield splits between Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, and Rodriguez, fantasy managers lose the inside-the-five carries that drove Ekeler’s RB1 finishes with the Chargers. Although Holloway still expects Ekeler to lead the committee, he warned that without goal-line work Ekeler would need elite receiving volume just to return RB2 value—similar to his 2020 stretch when he averaged only 0.2 rushing TDs per game. He recommended downgrading Ekeler at current ADP and stashing Rodriguez late as a potential weekly touchdown vulture in season-long and best-ball leagues.

Mike Wright called Terry McLaurin’s 2024 season a textbook sell-high. McLaurin became one of only 10 wideouts since 2000 to reach 13+ touchdowns on fewer than 125 targets. Historically those players lose five or more scores the next year. Wright said low-end WR2 numbers are still possible, but at a 4th-round ADP you’re drafting him near last year’s ceiling rather than his most likely outcome.

Andy Holloway selected Jayden Daniels at 1.03 and defended the pick by comparing Daniels’ outlook to the leap Kyler Murray made in his second season with Cliff Kingsbury. Daniels already flashed elite rushing chops (64.9 rushing yards per start as a rookie) and carries a 4,000-yard/40-TD passing ceiling if he ‘levels up’ as a thrower in year two of Kingsbury’s system. Holloway acknowledged inherent risk— Daniels must improve on last year’s 6.6 adjusted yards per attempt— but believes the combination of scheme continuity, rushing floor, and historical precedent makes Daniels fully capable of crashing the elite fantasy quarterback tier in 2025.

Larry Hartstein recommended the under on Deebo Samuel’s season-long receiving yards (line not specified). Samuel posted career lows in yards per game, YAC and yards per route run in 2024 and turns 30 this season. Hartstein worries that Samuel’s bruising style and lengthy injury history are catching up. With Terry McLaurin expected to headline the attack and camp standout Jalen Lane earning snaps, Samuel’s target share could fall further. Hartstein views the health risk plus diminished efficiency as a clear signal to fade.

Freedman rocketed Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt from RB62 to RB36 after the seventh-round pick parlayed a 1,368-yard, 19-TD final college campaign into an eye-opening camp (18-70-1 rushing, 3-8 receiving). Washington is searching for a between-the-tackles option and Freedman believes Croskey-Merritt has shown enough to start Week 1. That potential three-down opportunity at a bargain ADP makes him a priority late-round target in redraft and best-ball leagues.

In his latest rankings update, Matthew Freedman urged managers to "chase down" Jacory Croskey-Merritt even as the running back’s ADP rises. Freedman argued the market has not fully priced in the volume that opened when Brian Robinson was shipped to San Francisco, pointing out that Washington now has 244 vacated carries from 2024 and no other runner on the roster with more than 75 career NFL attempts. He expects Croskey-Merritt’s ADP to continue climbing over the next two peak draft weekends and recommended pulling the trigger one full round ahead of published consensus to lock in a potential three-down back attached to an offense that finished ninth in red-zone rush rate last season.

Dwain McFarland explained that Washington’s decision to trade Brian Robinson to the 49ers removes the only proven early-down threat in the Commanders backfield, vaulting Jacory Croskey-Merritt into what McFarland called "must-draft territory." McFarland noted that Fantasy Life’s internal rankers have already moved Croskey-Merritt up to RB33—solid RB3 value—but he believes the role consolidation makes an RB2 finish well within range. McFarland expects Croskey-Merritt to command the lion’s share of goal-line and first- and second-down work beginning in Week 1. He advised scooping the Commanders back wherever he slips past the sixth round in season-long or as an anchor RB in Zero-RB best-ball builds before ADP corrects.

Chris Liss called Brian Robinson a no-brainer $3 buy in a $200 auction because Washington has already hinted they will cut or trade him. Liss floated Houston and Miami as probable landing spots where Robinson could become an early-down starter for four-to-six weeks while those clubs wait on injured backs to return. Even a month of 15-carry games would easily out-earn a $3 investment, making Robinson the ideal "churn" RB2 behind an anchor like Bijan on deeper season-long rosters. If the move never materializes you simply recycle the roster spot, but the asymmetric payoff is worth the tiny spend.