Steven Rawlings advised backing Aaron Rai outright on the Betfair Exchange at 55.0 (roughly 54/1) for the BMW PGA Championship. Rawlings noted that Rai’s recent form is better than it looks: although he missed the cut at the European Masters two weeks ago, he rebounded with a second-round 65 that vaulted him from 136th to a tie for 68th. Prior to that, Rai logged T22 at the St Jude Championship, T33 at the British Masters, and a fifth-place finish when defending at Sedgefield— a tree-lined track Rawlings calls a strong Wentworth comp course. Wentworth itself clearly suits him: his last four visits read 14-MC-4-2, including a runner-up finish two years ago when he ranked third in Scrambling. Rawlings stressed that Scrambling and Greens-in-Regulation are historically the two most predictive stats on the West Course, citing that 11 of the last 19 winners ranked top-four in GIR and recent champions all landed top-10 in Scrambling. With high-street books posting only 35/1, Rawlings argued the 55.0 exchange price is a clear mis-price, making Rai his lone pre-tournament bet.

John Schwarb took Aaron Rai to be Top UK/Ireland player at +450. Unlike many Europeans who shut it down post-Links swing, Rai rested just one week before finishing T5 at Wyndham. Schwarb thinks that form carries over against only six other players in this prop, making the third-choice price appealing.

Schwarb bet Rai at +450 to be the top UK/Irish finisher, noting that many Europeans took extended breaks after the Scottish and Open, whereas Rai returned quickly and placed T5 at Wyndham. Against a seven-man subset led by Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick, Schwarb backs Rai’s sharp form and elite fairway-finding to outlast his countrymen.

Barnett likes Aaron Rai at +240 for a top-10, explaining that if Rai doesn’t win he still expects a big week because the Englishman sits 14th on the European Ryder-Cup standings and is hovering near the critical top-50 FedEx-Cup cutoff. That extra incentive plus solid recent form make the plus-money finish attractive.

Barnett flagged Aaron Rai as a high-ceiling GPP play rather than an outright ticket. Rai has gained a staggering 19 strokes on approach across his last eight measured rounds (The Open + Wyndham), leads the field in fairways hit during that stretch, and traditionally over-performs on par-70 layouts under 7,300 yards—an exact description of TPC Southwind. While name recognition will keep his DraftKings ownership modest, Barnett believes the iron play alone justifies overweight exposure, especially in single-entry contests.

Will Gray likes Aaron Rai at +210 for a Top-10 finish because Rai ranks second on TOUR in driving accuracy and finding fairways is paramount at TPC Southwind. Rai just flashed form while defending his Wyndham title last week, and Gray expects that fairway-finding profile to translate into another high finish.

Rai’s season had been lost until Wyndham, where he gained 10.4 strokes on approach—the third-best iron week recorded by anyone in this playoff field in 2025 (trailing only Scheffler and Schauffele). Gehman believes the Wyndham spike could be a signal Rai is rounding back into the form that produced last year’s Wyndham win, giving him sneaky upside in the 8k range.

Andy Lang warned that Aaron Rai is being priced on name recognition from last year’s Wyndham victory rather than current form. Rai owns just one top-10 in 2025 and has not cracked the top-15 since mid-March. Over the past three months he ranks 21st in the field in total strokes gained, and putting remains a glaring weakness on a week where Lang believes a hot flat stick will be mandatory. At his current DFS salary and betting odds Lang called Rai an “easy pass.”

Kyle Murray backed Aaron Rai at 28-1 to win the Wyndham Championship and +320 for a top-10. Murray said Sedgefield’s short, par-70 design removes the bomber edge and spotlights elite fairway finders. Over the past year Rai ranks 1st in driving accuracy, 10th in strokes-gained approach, and 5th tee-to-green within this field. Because the Englishman already lifted the trophy here last season, Murray expects the same skill set to play again and is willing to stake an outright plus finishing ticket.

David Barnett said he is backing Aaron Rai outright and in DFS at Sedgefield. Barnett reminded listeners that Rai "went bananas" here last year, gaining a pile of strokes on approach on his way to the win. That specific skill is critical this week because Sedgefield offers very little room to separate off-the-tee – it is short, tight and ranks near the bottom in strokes gained driving. With 72% of greens typically hit, Barnett wants players who can stuff wedges and mid-irons from the 150-to-190-yard bucket and then catch a hot putter on slick Bermuda. Rai excels at both: he is one of the Tour’s most accurate drivers, giving him more fairway lies than the field, and he already proved he can handle the Donald Ross green complexes under tournament pressure. Barnett concluded that the Englishman’s course fit plus obvious comfort make him a strong bet to contend again despite the difficulty of repeating on Tour.

Andy Lack currently slots Aaron Rai into the 11-spot on his European depth chart but warned the Englishman needs results—starting at Wyndham and through the first two FedEx Cup playoff events—to keep it. Lack sees Rai as the potential ‘Sep Straka role’ player: a fairway-finding specialist who can be hidden in two foursomes sessions if Marco Simone is set up tight. Rai ranks inside the PGA Tour’s top-20 in driving-accuracy and greens-in-regulation yet has struggled to convert because the putter is neutral at best. Lack said a top-10 at Sedgefield plus one playoff top-20 would make him nearly safe, and he likes taking +250 or longer in ‘To Make Team’ props before the first tee shot Thursday.

Brandon Gdula cautioned against chasing Aaron Rai at 22-to-1 or prioritizing him over pricier studs in DFS. DataGolf pegs Rai as the tournament favorite only after layering course-history and course-fit adjustments, lifting his win probability to 4.5%. Strip those boosts out and his baseline number falls to 2.2%, a gap Gdula believes the betting market has over-corrected for. He added that Rai’s profile carries a lower ceiling than Jordan Spieth or Hideki Matsuyama, players he can still afford in DFS despite higher salaries. Gdula will keep Rai in the player pool for roster builds but refuses to burn outright units on a golfer whose edge hinges on a 0.46 strokes-gained per-round course history adjustment.

Brown locked in Aaron Rai at 28-1 even though he rarely clicks sub-30 numbers on non-elite winners. Rai ranked first in two of Brown’s builds and top-three in every model he ran across BetSperts, RickRunGood, and DataGolf. The Englishman is gaining strokes in every major category, sits top-5 in good-drive percentage, and top-10 in approaches from 125-200 yards over his last 24 rounds—metrics tailor-made for Sedgefield. While win equity is a concern (few top-10s), Brown argued a weaker field and perfect course fit override that worry, so he punched the outright and will look for matchup exposure.

Andy Lack said Aaron Rai should again be at the very top of betting and DFS short-lists at Sedgefield. Lack reminded listeners how "it was so straightforward last year" when Rai came in playing great golf and immediately popped on a track that rewards precision. Rai ranked top-10 in driving accuracy at the 2024 Wyndham and, according to Lack, that single trait is critical this week because Sedgefield’s sticky Bermuda rough creates a real miss-fairway penalty. Combine that with Rai’s dependable short-to-middle-iron proximity and solid Bermuda putting profile and Lack believes he checks every box in the accuracy/iron-play template that has produced recent champions here. Lack plans to fire an outright ticket and will be overweight in DFS ownership if the market stays lukewarm.

Ryan Noonan unveiled Aaron Rai—dubbed the ‘soft Viking’—as his favorite under-the-radar add to make-the-cut parlays. Rai sits fourth in DP World Tour points and has finished T13 or better in six of his last eight starts, including a T13 in Scotland where he gained strokes in every category. He won the Soudal Open in Belgium in May, evidence of a ceiling the books are not pricing in. Noonan likes that the putter, usually Rai’s weakest link, has been positive in five of those eight tournaments, giving him a path to spike. With Rai available at plus money simply to make the weekend and +650 for a Top 20, Noonan is slotting him into Underdog’s +EV ‘make-the-cut’ specials while sprinkling standalone Top 40 (+220) tickets.

For bettors hunting a bomb, MacMillan highlighted Aaron Rai at 120-1 outright or +260 for a top-20. Rai ranks second on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and 25th in greens-in-regulation, traits MacMillan says become even more valuable if Portrush turns blustery. While Rai’s recent finishes (T19 PGA, T17 Travelers) won’t wow casual bettors, MacMillan likes his history of excelling in poor weather, including victory at the 2020 Scottish Open. Because distance is less critical on this links layout, Rai’s precision could translate into a surprise leaderboard run, making him a cheap lottery ticket with solid positional betting options.

Iain MacMillan tabbed Aaron Rai at 95-1 as his favorite sleeper. Rai, a former Scottish Open champion, arrives in good form and ranks top-10 on the DP World Tour in fairways hit and greens in regulation. MacMillan emphasized that Portrush rewards his fairway-first style—"hitting the fat part of greens is his bread and butter"—and that Rai’s track record in windy, firm conditions gives him real top-five equity if the weather turns nasty.

Pat Mayo called Aaron Rai a sneaky top-20 and each-way play for the Open despite acknowledging concerns about his lack of distance and mediocre putting. Rai still ranks 21st in Mayo’s long-term model thanks to elite fairway-finding (top-5 in fairways gained) and solid mid-iron numbers on 200-plus-yard par-3s—key yardages at Royal Portrush. Mayo reminded listeners that Rai owns two links-course trophies: the 2020 Scottish Open and the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Links, proof he can navigate firm, wind-exposed setups. Although bigger hitters may outmuscle him on the drivable 5th, Rai’s dual-glove accuracy should keep him out of Portrush’s early out-of-bounds corridors, giving him a high floor for placement bets and balanced DFS builds. Mayo will consider outrights only if the market leaves him at 150-1 or longer.

Pat Mayo singled out Aaron Rai as a smart placement bet for Portrush after the Englishman landed inside the top 25 of every weighted category in his custom model. Rai sits top-10 in fairways gained over both 12- and 50-round samples and ranks 15th in approach from 175-200 yards—the exact par-3 yardage that dominates Royal Portrush. Mayo stressed that Portrush punishes wayward tee shots with out-of-bounds on four of the first five holes, an area where Rai’s dual-glove accuracy gives him an edge. Combine that with proven links pedigree (Scottish Open win, multiple Irish Open top-10s) and a career scoring average nearly a stroke better in windy conditions, and Mayo likes top-20 and each-way tickets at 80-to-1 or longer while keeping a DFS pool share for balanced builds.

Gannon highlighted Aaron Rai at $8,300. Rai won at the Renaissance Club when it was a DP World Tour stop and has repeatedly gained strokes here. Although he is coming off a poor approach week, Gannon expects the irons to rebound, making Rai a strong single-entry option.

Pat Mayo flagged Aaron Rai as a sneaky mid-tier pivot at $8,300. Despite winning this event in 2020, Rai is carrying virtually no buzz because the field is flocking to flashier names such as Maverick McNealy, Taylor Pendrith, and Wyndham Clark in the same salary band. Mayo likes Rai’s fairway-finder profile on a course where distance helps but precision still matters, and he noted the Englishman’s linksy background fits the Renaissance Club perfectly. With projected ownership south of five percent, Rai provides immediate leverage without sacrificing cut-making equity—Mayo prefers him straight up over every similarly priced option except maybe Ryan Fox, whose roster percentage is "through the roof."

Farnsworth pointed to Aaron Rai’s pinpoint driving and elite irons as keys to avoiding the Renaissance Club’s penal fairway bunkers. Rai ranks among the most accurate drivers on tour and has historically gained on approach on wide-open links setups. With fairways hard to hit for everyone, Farnsworth thinks Rai’s relative precision gives him top-15 upside at a mid-7K salary.

Matt Gannon highlighted Aaron Rai around 60-to-1, noting that Rai already owns a victory at Renaissance Club—beating Tommy Fleetwood in a playoff when the event was a DP World Tour stop—and added a top-5 here last season. Rai’s steady tee-to-green profile and proven links pedigree make him a strong fit, even if Gannon prefers him more in placement markets. Still, the outright ticket is worth a sprinkle in the 50-to-100 range because Rai’s combination of fairway accuracy and historically solid mid-iron numbers mitigates the bomber bias some analysts see at this venue.

Andy Lack highlighted Aaron Rai as another accuracy outlier capable of thriving at the Renaissance Club despite its distance bias. Under this week’s projected calm weather, the course rewards length, but Lack noted Rai consistently gains off the tee through precision—an edge when the only real danger is finding a random pot bunker. With nearly 60 percent of approaches coming from 175-plus yards, Rai’s reliable long-iron play and previous Scottish Open success make him a high-leverage DFS option at likely modest ownership and an intriguing top-20 or each-way outright bet.

Patrick McDonald reminded listeners that distance is helpful at Detroit Golf Club but not essential. He pointed to last year’s leaderboard, where precision players Eric Cole and Aaron Rai contended alongside bombers. Rai’s track record on Donald Ross designs—highlighted by his T-2 at Ross-built Sedgefield—makes him a sneaky fit. McDonald noted that the subtly crowned Ross greens reward elite iron play and wedge proximity more than raw length, giving accurate fairway finders like Rai upside at depressed ownership and triple-digit outright numbers.

Derek Farnsworth "loves" Aaron Rai at $7,500, citing his top-tier driving accuracy and consistently positive approach numbers. Rai gains strokes off the tee by keeping it in the short grass, sits inside the field’s top-15 in iron play over the last 24 rounds and has shown spike putting weeks on Bent-Poa. On a course where positional play trumps power, Farnsworth believes Rai offers both a safe floor and slate-winning upside relative to salary.

For first-round leader at +5000, Sobel highlighted Aaron Rai’s habit of jumping out quickly—documented by a 65 in round one of the Truist Atlanta event and a 67 to open the PGA Championship. Rai ranks top-10 on Tour in round-one scoring average and excels with controlled iron shots that stay below hole locations, a style that historically produces low Thursday numbers at River Highlands.

Gannon called Aaron Rai a ‘ton-of-sense’ option in the mid-7K range because his game plan is simple: keep it in the short grass and pepper greens. The Englishman ranks near the top on Tour in fairways gained, which should set up wedge looks all week on the positional layout.

Derek Farnsworth is going back to Aaron Rai despite consecutive missed cuts because the Englishman ranks No. 1 worldwide in driving accuracy this season and remains a plus iron player. Farnsworth expects those traits to shine at Oakmont, where missing the fairway often means pitching out sideways and taking bogey. The recent MCs should suppress ownership, giving DFS players a cheap, near-minimum salary golfer who fits every statistical emphasis in Farnsworth’s model—fairways gained, approach, and greens in regulation. If Rai’s putting even breaks even, a top-30 finish would smash value in large-field contests.

Pat Mayo flagged Aaron Rai as the type of deep-odds play who can actually outperform the bombers at Oakmont. Rai ranks second on Tour in driving accuracy and top-10 in ‘Good Drives Gained,’ meaning he almost never has to hack out of four-inch rough. Mayo thinks that singular edge matters because any big-hitting Pendrith/Young/Pendrith profile still loses to Bryson if the event turns into bomb-and-gouge. By contrast, Rai can turn Oakmont into a fairway-and-green contest, shorten the course by playing from short grass, and let his above-average mid-iron play do the work. Mayo admitted the 100-to-1 number feels a bit stingy, yet he still prefers Rai to the other names in that range because the Englishman does one thing—find every fairway—better than the elite players he has to beat. Rai is a live outright each-way or top-20 ticket and an ownership-saving DFS punt in Mayo’s model that weights fairways and GIR heavily.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Aaron Rai as a sneaky finishing-position bet rather than a DFS core piece. Rai ranks 3rd on Tour in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds and is one of only eight players in the Oakmont field gaining strokes both off-the-tee and on approach while hitting at least 70% of fairways. Gdula admitted the Englishman’s putter is unreliable, but argued that a ‘T18-ish’ finish is firmly in play if Oakmont turns into a grind where pars gain ground and fairway finders avoid the brutal rough. With Top-20 odds expected to settle in the +500 to +600 range, Gdula sees Rai as an efficient way to get exposure to Oakmont’s accuracy premium without relying on four straight days of made putts.

Andy Lack highlighted Aaron Rai as a sneaky top-40 wager and low-owned DFS punt because Oakmont is the rare U.S. Open setup where fairways can still be hit. Rai ranks near the top of the field in Distance-to-Edge-of-Fairway, a more granular measure of accuracy than raw driving-accuracy percentage. With the course expected to play soft, players who actually find the short grass will separate dramatically— the missed-fairway penalty here is the highest on Tour. Lack added that Rai’s tidy wedges and streaky putter offer just enough scoring pop if he keeps the ball in play. At a sub-3 percent ownership projection and mid-6K DraftKings price, Rai gives Milly-Maker rosters leverage while also offering a +220 top-40 line worth betting.

Pat Mayo highlighted Aaron Rai as the under-the-radar name who checks every Oakmont grinder box for DraftKings builds and placement props. Rai leads the PGA Tour in fairways gained, hits 70% of greens from 175-225 yards, and ranks inside the top-10 in proximity from 75-125— a wedge zone Mayo expects players to face frequently after forced lay-ups from the rough. While Rai lacks raw power, Mayo argued that Oakmont’s expected 50-yard roll-outs on firm fairways mitigate that weakness and effectively gift Rai distance if he keeps it between the 24-yard corridors. Add a tidy bunker game (22nd in sand saves) and a Poa putting profile that trends neutral rather than disastrous, and Mayo believes Rai offers a live top-20 floor at sub-1% ownership. He advised locking Rai into single-entry DFS lineups and sprinkling top-30/40 tickets before data-driven bettors notice "accuracy is the new power this week."

Aaron Rai offers Lowry-like traits at a cheaper tag: laser-straight off the tee, plus irons, competent around the greens, streaky putter. Farnsworth views him as a strong mid-range differentiator for balanced builds.

Jim Sannes recommended Aaron Rai at $8,600 as a sneaky DFS play. Rai ranks first in this field in driving accuracy over the last six months and continued to gain strokes on both approach and off the tee despite a missed cut at Colonial. Sannes chalked that MC up to a disastrous putter week—an issue that could be mitigated at rain-soaked Muirfield Village, where precision tee-to-green is paramount. With a recent run of 18th, 23rd, and 19th prior to Colonial and the course expected to play longer but softer, Sannes believes Rai’s fairway-finding driver gives him both cut-making safety and top-20 upside at a bargain salary.

Stewart took Aaron Rai for a Top-20, arguing the Englishman’s fairway-finding is tailor-made for Colonial where driver is optional. Rai ranks top-10 on Tour in driving accuracy and green-in-regulation, exactly the skill set that won him the Wyndham—one of Stewart’s preferred comps—two years ago. Because Colonial’s renovation tightened run-offs and added penal Bermuda rough, Stewart expects Rai’s "straight and arrow" profile to survive attrition while wild hitters eject, giving the +money Top-20 ticket plenty of equity.

Despite a course fit narrative, Gannon is fading Aaron Rai because projected ownership will be ‘in a ton of line-ups.’ Rai’s accuracy profile is attractive but Matt prefers to pivot toward lower-owned, higher-upside drivers like Keith Mitchell who create more eagle chances. The leverage and game theory outweigh Rai’s safety in Gannon’s build strategy.

Farnsworth highlighted Aaron Rai at $8,100 as a core mid-range DFS target. Rai gained eight strokes on approach last week, fits the model’s 12% weighting on irons, and carries above-average driving accuracy for a course with tight, tree-lined fairways. Farnsworth likes riding a player whose ball-striking ceiling aligns with Colonial’s emphasis on greens-in-regulation and approach play.

Jason Rouslin backed Aaron Rai to win his first-round 3-ball versus Camilo Villegas and Webb Simpson with a 9-of-9 confidence grade. Rai’s strokes-gained metrics have been trending the right way across the bag, while Villegas and Simpson have shown virtually no recent form. Rouslin believes the disparate trajectories make Rai a clear bet despite any price inflation.

Wes Reynolds bet Aaron Rai outright at +3500, arguing that Colonial’s accuracy-centric setup plays directly into Rai’s strengths. The Englishman finished T-19 at last week’s PGA Championship while ranking 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 4th in Driving Accuracy, evidence his irons are dialed in. Reynolds noted Rai already proved he can win on a similar positional track by taking last fall’s Wyndham at Sedgefield, a course strongly correlated with Colonial success. Rai has made the cut in all three prior starts here and owns six top-25s in his last nine worldwide events. On a par-70 where length is muted and fairways are tight, Reynolds expects Rai’s combination of precision tee shots and elite mid-iron play to keep him in contention all four days.

Brian Giuffra punched an outright ticket on Aaron Rai at +3300. Rai ranks 16th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 21st in SG: Approach this season, numbers that ballooned to 9th and 3rd respectively at the PGA Championship where he still managed a T19 despite losing strokes putting. Giuffra also referenced Rai’s improving course history (T32 and T12 last two years). On a layout that penalizes errant drives and rewards precise irons, Giuffra believes Rai’s current ball-striking surge can translate into his first PGA Tour win.

McClure’s SportsLine simulation loves Aaron Rai at 45-1, calling him a longshot with a far better chance to win than the odds imply. Rai’s statistical profile fits Colonial perfectly: he ranks 1st on tour in driving accuracy (73.13%), 16th in greens-in-regulation (69.57%) and 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). Although he lacks elite distance, the model expects his precision to keep him in scoring position all week, giving him a legitimate shot at the title and making his +325 top-10 prop at Caesars an attractive wager.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model flagged Aaron Rai as a value outright ticket at 35-1. Since whiffing the cut at the Houston Open, Rai has rattled off five straight top-40 finishes, a stretch that includes two majors and two Signature Events, proving he can hang with elite fields. Colonial is missing several top-tier names, further boosting his win equity. McClure noted the ability to shop the number—FanDuel is still dealing 35-1 while DraftKings is already down to 30-1—making the Englishman a true longshot worth a sprinkle.

Owen OBrien highlighted Aaron Rai as a 45-1 outright bet after SportsLine’s model spit him out as a value play. OBrien noted that Rai is the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour this season, a key trait at tight Colonial CC. That precision has helped him post the sixth-best Par-4 scoring average on Tour. Form is trending: T19 at the PGA Championship (4-under 67 in Round 1) marked his third straight top-25, and he finished T12 in this event last year. With five top-4 finishes since the start of 2023, OBrien believes Rai’s combination of current form, course history, and a Scheffler-inflated betting board makes him a live longshot.

Wes Reynolds grabbed Aaron Rai at 35-1, calling him a prototype for this week’s tight, approach-heavy setup. Rai finished T19 at last week’s PGA Championship while ranking 3rd in strokes-gained approach and 4th in driving accuracy, numbers Reynolds expects to translate immediately to Colonial’s 27-yard-wide fairways and 5,000-sq-ft greens. Rai has made the cut in all three prior visits here and already owns a win on a comparable positional track (the Wyndham at Sedgefield). With six top-25 finishes in his past nine starts, Reynolds thinks the Englishman offers top-tier iron play without the premium price attached to Scheffler, Spieth or Matsuyama.

Dom Cintorino highlighted Aaron Rai as his favorite target in the low-20s outright range. Cintorino stressed Rai’s elite fairways-gained profile—one of the most accurate drivers on tour—which he believes is critical at tight Colonial. Rai has gained strokes tee-to-green and on approach in three straight starts, including a solid PGA Championship where he was +4.6 tee-to-green. After a cold start, Rai has quietly notched multiple consecutive top-20 finishes, showing form is trending at exactly the right time. Dom thinks the 25-30-to-1 numbers available (and even shorter in the ‘without Scheffler’ market) still underestimate his win equity in this diluted field.

McClure’s model flagged Aaron Rai as mispriced at 45-1, calling him a legitimate threat to win and a strong +325 top-10 ticket. Rai’s precision fit Colonial perfectly: he leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (73.13%), ranks 16th in greens in regulation (69.57%) and sits 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). While he lacks Scheffler-level length, the model projects that if Rai continues to find fairways and hit a high percentage of greens, he can replicate the accurate-ball-striker blueprint that has repeatedly produced winners at this venue. Bettors hunting for a big payout are encouraged to sprinkle outrights and heavier exposure on finishing-position props.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model circled Aaron Rai at 45-1 as the week’s most under-priced bomber. Rai’s calling card is precision: he leads the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (73.1%), ranks 16th in GIR percentage (69.6%) and 20th in strokes gained: approach (+0.513). Colonial rewards fairways and crisp irons, so the model gives Rai a significantly higher win probability than his implied 2.2%. Bettors hunting upside can grab +4500 outright or +325 for a top-10 finish at Caesars. If the Englishman continues to pepper greens, McClure believes he can replicate his breakthrough 2023 Zurich run and contend deep into Sunday.

MacMillan advised betting Aaron Rai outright at +4500 on FanDuel, arguing Colonial’s demand for fairway finding plays directly into the Tour’s most accurate driver. Rai just posted a T19 at the PGA Championship on a bomber-friendly Quail Hollow, yet still ranked 3rd in the field in strokes-gained approach (+1.88). He also logged a T12 at Colonial two years ago. With the course finally matching his skill set and irons dialed in, MacMillan believes it is an ideal spot for Rai to capture his first PGA Tour victory.

Eric Polzin moved Aaron Rai into his CORE column, saying the Englishman checks every box for both DFS and an outright sprinkle. Rai owns finishes of 32nd and 12th in two Colonial starts, and Polzin noted those came before the recent spike in form that now has him trending 39->35->23->19 over his last four tournaments. The 9to5 model grades him 4th in course-specialist score and top-10 in overall stat fit, powered by 9th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Par-4 scoring, and 30th in ball-striking. Polzin acknowledged a mediocre 59th ranking in bogey avoidance and one poor Texas finish (Houston Open) but views the shortened 45-1 number as proof books respect the ceiling. He is treating Rai as a mid-$8K salary anchor who lets lineups stay balanced while still preserving win equity.

Andy Lack urged listeners to hop back on Aaron Rai at Colonial, calling the course a carbon copy of Sedgefield where Rai lifted a trophy. Rai ranks top-10 on Tour in driving-accuracy rate and short-iron proximity, the exact combination Lack weighted heaviest after the Hanse restoration made Colonial a "spike-approach" track with sticky Bermuda rough. Last year Rai disappointed with a T-32 here, but Lack chalked that up to a cold putter and noted that Rai still gained 4.1 strokes tee-to-green. With greens now even firmer and corridors widened to reward straight-ball hitters, Lack expects Rai’s fairway-pounding style and controlled ball flight to surface as a DFS leverage play under $8K and an outright bet in the 40-60/1 range before steam arrives Monday night.