Alejandro “Toasty” Tosti made Farnsworth’s outright card at 90-1 and is a preferred low-7K DFS flier. Tosti gained 11.3 strokes tee-to-green— a career best— in his last start, also in Texas. His length off the tee and aggressive scoring profile fit Craig Ranch’s birdie-fest environment. Projection models may underrate him, but Farnsworth is chasing the ceiling created by that recent ball-striking spike.

Reynolds rolled the dice on Alejandro Tosti at 90-1 (FanDuel). The big-hitting Argentine sits 4th on Tour in average driving distance and has finished 5th (Houston), 12th (Valero Texas) and T-2 (Corales Puntacana) in his last three individual starts. With TPC Craig Ranch ranking among the Tour’s easiest for scoring and offering little penalty off the tee, Reynolds believes Tosti’s length can produce enough wedge looks to keep his recent heater going all the way to Sunday.

At +8000, Alejandro Tosti is Sobel’s "aggressive" outright. Tosti ranks 5th on Tour in driving distance, owns recent finishes of 2nd-12th-5th, and matches the profile of the last four Byron Nelson champions whose average pre-tournament price was 87/1. Sobel highlighted Tosti’s contradiction-filled personality—trash-talking peers while handing out homemade empanadas—but emphasized his current form and raw power are tailor-made for a 25-under winning score. The tout believes continued contending will slash future prices, so now is the time to buy the bomber.

Pat Mayo locked in Alejandro “Toasty” Tosti at 100-to-1 with eight-place each-way terms and explained exactly why the price is mis-baked. Tosti gained a ridiculous 6.5 strokes tee-to-green in only TWO rounds at this event last year, but hemorrhaged six strokes putting and missed the cut – the perfect profile for a buy-low bomber in a birdie-fest. Mayo reminded listeners Tosti regularly stuffs wedges close and averages nearly an eagle per round on the Korn Ferry and early PGA starts, so the ceiling to run away from the field is there. The catch: he routinely lips out four-footers, which is already baked into the triple-digit odds. Mayo’s plan is to lean into that volatility – bet the outright/each-way, ignore head-to-heads, and live with the short-putt carnage because if the flat stick behaves for 72 holes, the Argentinian can win by multiple strokes.

Kim fired on Alejandro Tosti at 80-to-1 (8 places), pointing to a recent form surge—12th and 5th in his last two stroke-play starts—and elite power (ranks 6th in Driving Distance). Tosti has gained strokes with his irons in four straight events for the first time all season, giving him the ceiling to out-score fields when conditions are soft. Kim drew a comp to TPC Vidanta, noting Tosti thrived in Mexico earlier this year and the agronomy/setup parallels Craig Ranch. Add in an above-average birdie rate on par-fives and a fearless, flag-hunting mentality, and Kim views Tosti as the exact kind of volatile longshot who can steal a low-scoring shootout. He is in Kim’s outright card and featured in large-field DFS builds.

Pat Mayo targeted Alejandro “Toasty” Tosti as his favorite long-shot lottery ticket, but only if sportsbooks hang something in the 100-1 range. Mayo noted Tosti’s tee-to-green surge – T5 Houston, T12 Valero, 2nd at the alternate-field Corrales – came on similar easy tracks where birdies are mandatory. The Argentine ranks top-10 in the field in strokes-gained ball striking over the past eight rounds, and his 8% eagle rate on reachable par-5s trails only Scheffler and Im. The rub, of course, is the putter: Tosti dropped six strokes putting in two rounds here last year. Mayo argued that the volatility is exactly what you want in large-field DFS contests and tiny outright sprinkles; if the flatstick is merely neutral, his birdie-making could carry him to the –22 target score historically needed to win at Craig Ranch.

Andy Lack tabbed Alejandro Tosti—referred to affectionately as “Toasty”—as another outright play thanks to elite power and recent form on driver-heavy layouts. Tosti ranks top-20 in the field for Strokes Gained Off the Tee and driving distance, jumping to 7th when Lack filters for courses with low missed-fairway penalties. Tournament comps support the fit: runner-up at Corales Puntacana, 5th at the Houston Open, and 12th at Valero—all long, soft, bomb-and-gouge setups. His irons have been trending positive, and Lack believes the Zurich Classic missed cut with Joe Highsmith will suppress ownership and odds. The Argentinian’s birdie-making ability makes him a high-variance GPP staple and a live outright as long as his price sits 60-1 or longer.

McClure’s model flagged the Alejandro Tosti–Joe Highsmith pairing at 40‑1 as a sneaky upside play. Highsmith broke through at this year’s Cognizant Classic, followed with a T20 at THE PLAYERS, and owns four top‑22 finishes despite six missed cuts in 12 starts—showing high‑ceiling volatility the format rewards. Tosti has been trending up, nearly stealing last week’s Corales Puntacana (solo T2) after earlier results of T5 at the Houston Open and T12 at the Valero Texas Open. Statistically, Tosti’s fifth‑ranked driving distance sets him up to attack the par‑5s, while Highsmith’s 31st‑ranked putting average compensates for Tosti’s 80th‑ranked flatstick. The model sees their mash‑it‑then‑drain‑it skill blend as perfect for best‑ball sessions and worthy of a speculative ticket at +4000.

McClure’s model likes Alejandro Tosti and Joe Highsmith at +360 to crack the top‑10. Both missed the cut here last season with different partners, giving them a valuable look at the unique foursomes/four‑ball format without many bettors noticing. They enter on a heater: Highsmith won the Cognizant Classic in March and logged three additional top‑25s in the last eight weeks, while Tosti has rattled off three consecutive finishes of T12 or better. The simulator projects them exactly 10th most often in 10,000 runs, turning the +360 price into a clear positive‑EV wager.

Bo McBrayer is also wagering on Alejandro Tosti and Joe Highsmith at 40‑1, dubbing them a “volatile but fun” pairing. Tosti ranks among the field’s longest drivers and can reach par‑5s no one else besides Rory reaches, while Highsmith’s putter has been unconscious the past two months (gaining 1.2 strokes per round on the greens). McBrayer believes that bomb‑and‑birdie profile is exactly what wins four‑ball sessions, and Highsmith’s flat stick can hide Tosti’s occasional wayward wedges in alternate‑shot. Although Highsmith is coming off a poor finish last week, McBrayer views that as noise and expects their contrasting styles to keep them in contention if they find early rhythm.

McClure’s projections like Alejandro Tosti and Joe Highsmith at 40‑1 despite their limited Tour experience (<100 combined starts). Highsmith already collected his first win at the 2025 Cognizant Classic and logged a T20 at THE PLAYERS, flashing high‑ceiling form with four top‑22 finishes in 12 starts. Tosti arrives scorching: T2 last week at the Corales Puntacana after a Sunday 68, plus T5 at the Houston Open and T12 at the Valero Texas Open. Tosti’s length (5th in driving distance) pairs with Highsmith’s touch (31st in putting average) to create a balanced attack that the model views as dangerous in the team format.

Harrison labeled Joe Highsmith/Alejandro Tosti an enticing +4000 flier. Highsmith already owns a 2025 victory (Cognizant Classic) and followed it with two additional top‑25s. Tosti enters red‑hot with finishes of T‑5, T‑12, and solo 2nd at last week’s Corales Puntacana. Harrison likes the combination of Highsmith’s steady tee‑to‑green numbers and Tosti’s aggressive scoring in the four‑ball sessions, arguing their recent momentum offsets their lack of Zurich experience.

Ben Coley identifies Alejandro Tosti as a strong value selection in his debut at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Tosti’s recent form has been eye-catching: second tee-to-green in Houston and top in that statistic for 12th place in the Valero Texas Open, demonstrating excellent recent approach-play and improved driving accuracy. Despite his putter occasionally letting him down, Coley believes the generous fairways and second-shot emphasis of the Puntacana course will suit Tosti, since he won previously at another similarly long Korn Ferry Tour venue and showed strong performances at the Mexico Open on similar tropical resort courses, with two prior 10th-place finishes. Coley argues Tosti’s proven record on comparable layouts makes him a strong contender, even in his first appearance at Puntacana.

Wes Reynolds is betting Alejandro Tosti outright at 40-to-1 in the Corales Puntacana Championship. Tosti's aggressive playing style, big hitting off the tee, ninth ranking in off-the-tee stats, and sixth in strokes gained tee-to-green make him suited to attacking this course. Recent strong finishes in Houston (fifth place) and San Antonio (twelfth place), coupled with Tosti's aggressive approach, position him as a strong outright bet for this event.

Wes Reynolds advises betting Alejandro Tosti (40-1 odds on FanDuel) at the Corales Puntacana Championship, emphasizing Tosti's skill set as ideal for the event. Reynolds points out that Tosti ranks ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green. Known as a powerful driver, Tosti benefits from the wide, forgiving fairways at Corales, allowing him to play aggressively. His current form is solid too, with fifth and 12th-place finishes in recent tournaments in Houston and San Antonio respectively, indicating he has momentum heading into this week.

Pat Fitzmaurice identified Alejandro Tosti as a captivating longshot wager for the Corales Puntacana tournament at 45-to-1 odds. Fitzmaurice acknowledged Tosti's volatile style and potential threat of missing the cut but emphasized his massive upside due to prodigious distance off the tee and the capability of scoring very low rounds. He's enthusiastic about backing Tosti purely due to his explosive talent that could thrive under favorable course conditions in the Dominican Republic.

Bob Weeks recommended betting Alejandro Tosti at +175 odds to finish as the Top South American at the Valero Texas Open. Weeks explained Tosti will be highly motivated after recent public criticism relating to slow play comments. This added motivation could fuel Tosti's performance, giving his bet excellent potential value.

Matt Every expressed strong enthusiasm towards betting on Alejandro Tosti at the Valero Texas Open, highlighting Tosti's unique competitive edge and potential as an emerging villain on tour. Every praised Tosti for asserting himself by instructing his caddie to confidently back his driver selections. Additionally, Every pointed to Tosti's willingness to call over an official when Min Woo Lee took too long, demonstrating his intensity and competitiveness. Every suggested that Tosti's fiery personality and exceptional talent provide a valuable betting angle, making him an exciting option for betting markets at the Valero.

David Barnett identified Alejandro Tosti as an intriguing DFS option, highlighting his impressive and memorable performance in Houston (Sunday surge, T5 finish at 3.5% ownership). Barnett praised Tosti's entertainment value and his strong Sunday showing at Houston, suggesting his excellent late-round play and lower DFS ownership could position him as a compelling DFS option for upcoming events, including the Valero Texas Open.

Tyler Tamboline identified Alejandro Tosti as the potential chalk punt play of the PGA DFS slate for the 2025 Houston Open. Tosti appears comfortable to DFS players due to his solid result at this event last year and has steadily gained popularity within the DFS golf community. Tamboline believes Tosti will attract enough attention to be noticeably owned in lineups, although not excessively so that it should deter you entirely. Alejandro Tosti's previous success at the course combined with positive buzz makes him a logical lower-priced leverage option, despite the expectation he'll carry notable ownership.

Byron Lindeque recommended Alejandro Tosti as a worthy longshot bet at 300-to-1 odds due to his impressive previous performances at Memorial Park, specifically the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open. Lindeque noted Tosti held the outright or shared lead after round three and maintained a top-six position after every round in that event. Tosti's ball striking was particularly impressive, consistently gaining over 1.5 strokes each round in ball striking departments during tournament play. Although similar to Aldrich Potgieter, he occasionally struggles around the greens, his power off the tee and overall ability demonstrated at this specific course make him a strong value for this event, according to Byron. He advised backing Tosti with a top-five each-way bet, alongside favorites, to maximize value.

Ev Singleton expressed clear caution on Alejandro Tosti, despite his ranking in Singleton's statistical model. Singleton cited serious concerns about Tosti's recent form, particularly his alarming putting struggles and declining performance off-the-tee. Singleton stressed the importance of putting this week at Memorial Park, noting that Tosti has recently struggled significantly in that department. Despite Tosti's driving distance ranking well, these weaknesses led Singleton to strongly recommend fading Tosti in DFS and betting scenarios this week.

Matthew Wiley labels Alejandro Tosti as his 'crazy pick' for the week, suggesting Tosti as a speculative but intriguing DFS and betting longshot despite clear volatility. Wiley bases this recommendation purely on a hunch, acknowledging the inherent risk associated with Tosti given his recent sharp struggles yet still seeing upside in Tosti's aggressive style of play matched to this course's layout. Though calling it somewhat humorous as a 'PCP' type of pick due to its boldness, Wiley still sees actionable value at minimal DFS pricing and significant betting odds for Tosti.

Matthew Wiley spotlighted Alejandro Tosti as an intriguing low-cost contrarian pick and longshot bet for the Houston Open, priced at 200-to-1 odds. Despite recent struggles, including two consecutive missed cuts, Wiley noted Tosti's aggressive style of play as a distinct advantage at Memorial Park. Tosti impressively combines major distance off the tee with very strong around-the-green skills, essential attributes needed to succeed on this course layout. Wiley recognized risks given recent poor performances but believes Tosti's style and ideal skill set provide realistic upside and justify exposure at minimal DFS pricing and significant betting odds.

Ben Coley advises backing Alejandro Tosti at 225/1, highlighting him as an aggressive driver whose style perfectly matches Memorial Park's wide-open and driver-friendly characteristics. Tosti was runner-up at this event last season, reinforcing his suitability for this course type. Coley pointed out Tosti's tendency to perform best at expansive and straightforward courses, evidenced also by his strong showing at Vidanta Vallarta. Although recent missed cuts have suggested struggles, Coley argues these resulted from playing courses ill-suited to Tosti's bold strategy. Recent strong iron play coupled with Tosti’s consistent success on similar course types signal a high-upside bet at generous odds.

Byron Lindeque passionately recommended Alejandro Tosti as a highly undervalued longshot bet, with available odds up to 500-to-1. He emphasized Tosti's previous impressive runner-up finish at Memorial Park, illustrating significant course-fit comfort. More recently, Tosti secured a top-10 finish at the Mexico Open, a similar style course emphasizing strong long-game and driving performance. Given Tosti's recent appearances atop PGA leaderboards and proven capability for contending in Mexico and Houston, Byron repeatedly labeled this a massive betting opportunity. He strongly advocated wagering on Tosti at odds ranging from 250-to-1 to 500-to-1, viewing him as substantially underpriced for the demonstrated upside.