Steve Bamford advised backing Alex Noren each-way at 16/1, noting that the Swede sits 111th in the FedEx Fall standings and needs a big finish to secure full 2026 status. Bamford highlighted Noren’s blistering recent run—7th at the 3M Open, 3rd at Wyndham, then back-to-back victories at the Betfred British Masters and BMW PGA Championship—while pointing out that Noren historically wins in bunches (four wins in seven DP World Tour starts during his 2016 heater). The veteran is gaining strokes off the tee and on approach in every start except Wentworth and ranks among the field’s best putters. Course fit matters too: Noren has a stack of strong desert results (14th PGA West 2020, 6th TPC Scottsdale 2022, 9th & 2nd at Old Greenwood, 3rd TPC Summerlin 2023). With Black Desert’s 70-yard fairways, reachable par-5s/4s and thin air reducing the true yardage to the mid-6,900s, Bamford expects Noren’s combination of accurate driving, altitude-adjusted distance control and hot putter to thrive en-route to another low-scoring shootout.

Andy Lack told listeners to keep one eyebrow raised for Alex Noren after the Swede quietly notched a top-10 last week despite months of injury-related rust. Noren has a reputation as a Ryder Cup foxhole guy (2-1-0 career record) and historically excels on narrow, positional layouts—exactly how many expect Marco Simone to be prepped. Lack believes one late-season win or a pair of playoff top-5s would catapult Noren past the inconsistent Hojgaard twins and a fading Justin Rose for the final captain’s pick. At triple-digit prices in European roster futures, Lack calls him “the cheapest lottery ticket left on the board.”

Brandon Gdula argued Alex Noren is being slept on at a flat $9,000 salary. Recent stat sheets look ugly— four straight events losing strokes off the tee and on approach— yet Gdula pointed out that across Noren’s last 36 measured rounds the Swede is still a net positive ball-striker. He also owns elite short-game numbers and finished T3 and T13 in two previous starts at TPC Twin Cities, proving the setup suits his eye. Because Noren only returned to competition in May, Gdula suspects the rust is temporary and the long-term profile (T17 at the PGA Championship) better reflects his upside. In a weak mid-tier, Gdula is willing to embrace the volatility for a player who’s already flashed top-five ceiling on this course.

Matt Brown flagged Alex Noren as an under-the-radar DFS value at just $6,500 on DraftKings. Noren cracked the top 15 of Brown’s Travelers model thanks to his strong fairways-gained number, reliable wedge proximity and top-20 scrambling rate—exact skill sets Brown emphasized for River Highlands’ tiny greens and forced lay-ups. Sliding Noren into builds frees up salary for elite options while still giving exposure to a player projecting well in birdie opportunities gained. Brown believes Noren’s boring, hit-every-fairway profile is tailor-made for large-field GPP leverage where ownership will gravitate toward flashier names in the same price range.

Kannon grabbed Alex Noren at 55-1, noting that the Swede has looked fully healthy after a seven-month hamstring layoff. Since returning four weeks ago, Noren has logged top-10s in Detroit, top-15s at TPC San Antonio, a 3rd and 12th at Byron Nelson, plus 11th and 4th in Houston—courses Kannon identifies as driver-heavy comps to TPC Toronto. Recent SG: Tee-to-Green numbers are sharp, and Noren historically putts well on Bent/Poa surfaces. Add solid showings at the difficult Truist Championship, PGA Championship and last week’s Memorial, and Kannon believes Noren is ready to go low in Toronto.

Pat Mayo revealed he already punched a 66-1 outright with a top-5 each-way on Alex Noren. Mayo liked what he saw at Quail Hollow – crisp long-iron play, elite scrambling, and a putter capable of catching fire – and thinks that exact skill set thrives when the Memorial plays tough. If Jack’s place turns firm and scoring tilts to par-savers, Mayo believes Noren’s all-around grindy profile can threaten the trophy or at minimum cash the each-way portion.

Pat Mayo said Alex Noren is a sneaky buy for Memorial outrights and plus-money placement bets. Mayo pointed to Noren’s flawless bent-grass profile—he has gained strokes putting in all four previous trips to Muirfield Village—and noted that the Swede has gained on approach and around the green in five of his last six starts. Since returning from the glute tear, Noren’s driving accuracy is back to its pre-injury norm, which Mayo believes neutralizes his distance deficit on a layout that "de-emphasizes length and punishes misses." Noren’s Saturday back-nine at Valhalla, where he holed multiple chips and gained nearly three strokes with the flat stick, proved the short-game pop is still there. With the field cut to 72 and distance muted, Mayo expects Noren to flirt with another top-15 and called him a perfect mid-range DFS core play and 66-1 outright sprinkle.

Eric Polzin said Alex Noren’s made-cut prop is the single best bet on the board. After stripping the vig, his 9-to-5 model calculates a true 54 % chance of Noren reaching the weekend, which still beats the 50 % implied probability of the standard pick-em payout on PrizePicks. Polzin added that Noren has made five straight cuts, owns a previous 24th-place finish at this championship venue, and grades inside the top-50 overall in the 9-to-5 stat model. Those course-history and recent-form boxes, combined with the favourable priced line, make the OVER on 36.5 holes played (or ‘make cut’ on Underdog) his preferred wager.

Iain MacMillan grabbed Alex Noren Top-20 at +300 in his first PGA Tour start since last October. MacMillan reminded bettors that Noren finished 12th on Tour in total strokes-gained last season and wants to see if he flashes 2024 form now that he’s healthy after a leg injury.

Iain MacMillan suggested a Top-20 bet on Alex Noren at +330 despite the Swede’s first start since an October hamstring/glute tear. MacMillan noted Noren’s strong 2024 campaign—12th on the PGA Tour in total strokes gained—and believes that baseline skill set gives him realistic top-20 upside even if there’s some rust. While acknowledging injury risk, MacMillan feels the market has over-discounted Noren and views +330 as fair compensation for bettors seeking mid-range exposure in Philadelphia.