Gianni the Greek maintains confidence in Alex Smalley despite consecutive missed cuts, attributing the poor results mostly to isolated incidents and unfortunate stretches rather than sustained bad form. A single bad break on the 18th hole significantly impacted one tournament, while a difficult span of five holes resulted in his missed cut last week, bogeying and double bogeying where he normally excels. Prior to these incidents, Smalley had been delivering some of his career-best golf performance. Gianni feels strongly this sets up a rebound scenario, choosing Smalley at -115 odds in a tournament matchup against Ryan Gerard, highlighting Gerard's over-reliance on his wedge play and struggles around the greens as factors in Smalley's favor.

Gianni the Greek highlights Alex Smalley as a valuable longshot play at the Valero Texas Open despite recent missed cuts. Smalley’s shortfalls were largely attributable to unlucky moments on just a few holes, rather than sustained poor play. Prior to these breaks, Smalley demonstrated strong tournament performances consistently. Gianni sees substantial betting value at high odds, given Smalley’s overall ability, underlying form, and a good fit for conditions at this event, emphasizing Smalley’s potential for significant upside as a betting selection.

Kelley Bydlon reiterated his support for Alex Smalley despite Smalley disappointing him the last two events with consecutive missed cuts. Bydlon remains optimistic due to Smalley's robust overarching statistical profile, ranking consistently high in his betting models. Acknowledging Smalley has suffered due to isolated rough patches instead of sustained poor play, Kelley bet him again in top 20 markets at +275 and a matchup against Andrew Novak at -105 odds. Kelley highlighted Smalley's consistent off-the-tee performance, arguing the recent poor rounds were anomalies.

Guy Boston promoted Alex Smalley as a bounce-back candidate this week despite consecutive missed cuts at Valspar Championship and Houston Open. Though he acknowledged recent weak approach play (showing deep red in recent strokes gained approach numbers), Boston expressed confidence that Smalley’s strong off-the-tee and around-the-green play would help compensate. Boston also referenced Smalley’s prior results (T14, T18 finishes before recent struggles) to argue against another poor outcome at the Valero Texas Open, indicating optimism for a strong rebound and valuable DFS upside compared to ownership expectations.

Brandon Gdula was cautious about Alex Smalley for DFS at a lowered salary of $9,100 due to notably poor recent iron play that led to missed cuts at both Houston and Valspar. Despite previously posting six top-25 finishes in seven starts earlier in the season, Smalley's poor short game and consistent struggles at TPC San Antonio (missed cut in all three starts) reduce confidence in rostering him. Gdula acknowledged salary attractiveness but discouraged trusting Smalley blindly without signs of improved iron play.

Rick Gehman remains optimistic about Alex Smalley for the Valero Texas Open at $7,300 despite recent struggles and poor course history. He noted Smalley's miscut last week in Houston was due largely to one poor five-hole stretch rather than a prolonged poor performance, actually finishing positively in strokes gained overall that week. Despite acknowledging legitimate risk—three straight missed cuts at this event—Gehman still values Smalley's underlying metrics and upside enough to justify fantasy selections.

Tyler Tamboline suggested Alex Smalley as a target in DFS lineups, highlighting previous excellent performances at the Houston Open (4th and 15th places) despite a recent missed cut largely due to being negatively impacted by poor weather at a recent event. Tamboline points out Smalley's recent finishes (14th, 18th, 10th, 21st, and 11th), reinforcing his consistent overall play and attractiveness as a DFS selection. He anticipates Smalley regaining popularity among DFS players once they fully contextualize his recent missed cut.

Pat Perry identified Alex Smalley at 55-1 odds as a promising betting prospect despite disappointing DFS players and bettors with a missed cut the previous week. Prior to last week, Smalley had built momentum with three consecutive top-20 finishes and strong historical results at Memorial Park, including T-15 and T-4 finishes. Perry mentioned Smalley's exceptional scrambling ability, ranking 8th in key statistical categories used in the "bet the number" model, making him a compelling choice despite recent underperformance.

Kelley Bydlon loves the value in Alex Smalley at 60/1 odds this week at the Texas Childrens Houston Open. Smalley ranked third in Bydlon's 20-round statistical model, trailing only Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler. Given the heavy talent drop-off after top favorites, Bydlon feels strongly that Smalley's impressive statistical profile—ranking prominently across key stats including driving distance, good drives gained, scrambling, bogey avoidance, and overall putting not dependent on greens type—makes him significantly undervalued compared to his odds. Despite acknowledging betting less this week due to uncertainty at Memorial Park, Smalley stood out as a clear value pick in Bydlon's eyes.

Ev Singleton identified Alex Smalley as a prime bounce-back candidate heading into the Houston Open. Singleton explained Smalley had been in good form leading up to a disappointing performance at the Valspar Championship, but his strong statistical profile indicates he is well-positioned for a rebound at Memorial Park. Singleton collectively grouped him with other golfers he's similarly positive on as bounce-back prospects this event, noting Smalley specifically had demonstrated good golf before his brief setback at Valspar.

Matthew MacKay is confident Alex Smalley can overcome his recent struggles, including a missed cut last week at Valspar and at Memorial Park last year. Smalley remains an appealing DFS play due to his consistently strong metrics, blending accuracy and power off-the-tee, a crucial skillset at the Houston Open venue. MacKay also highlighted Smalley's high performance in scrambling and in scoring average, further supporting confidence in a bounce-back. Despite costing $9,900 on FanDuel, MacKay views Smalley as a worthwhile investment in DFS lineups.

Brady Kannon identifies Alex Smalley as a solid pick, citing Smalley’s previous fourth-place finish at this event and his recent top form. Smalley played extensively recently, with multiple top-25 outcomes, though he unfortunately missed the cut last week at Valspar due to unfavorable weather. However, additional rest from missing the weekend is viewed positively by Kannon. Smalley has shown proficiency at other correlated venues, finishing 10th previously at the Renaissance Club. His current form is very strong statistically, excelling across the key metrics being emphasized this week, making him well positioned for a bounce-back performance.

Landon Silinsky strongly supports taking Alex Smalley at +5500 to win the Texas Children's Houston Open. He highlighted Smalley's impressive recent form, noting six finishes of T21 or better in eight starts in 2025, including an 11th at the Amex and a T10 at the Mexico Open. Silinsky further emphasized Smalley's excellent fall swing performance, notably a T5 showing at Sanderson Farms. He ranks Smalley fourth in Total Strokes Gained among this week's competitive field—trailing only elite names like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Michael Kim. Historical performance at Memorial Park also bolsters the argument, with Smalley previously achieving finishes of T15 and T4. Additionally, Silinsky noted Smalley's notable improvement in putting, which has been a traditional weakness, and his historical performance on longer golf courses, highlighting top-six finishes at Puntacana and Mexico. With the course playing at a lengthy 7,475 yards, it clearly fits his game exceptionally well, making Smalley an attractive outright wager this week.

Owen OBrien highlighted Alex Smalley at 60-1 odds as an undervalued betting opportunity entering the 2025 Houston Open. While the 28-year-old is still hunting his first PGA Tour victory, OBrien noted major statistical leaps this season compared to last year, as Smalley climbed from 146th to seventh in total strokes gained on tour. Additional metrics support his case, like jumping from 145th to 11th in scrambling and improving drastically in scoring average to third-best behind only Sepp Straka and Collin Morikawa. Smalley's recent form, including a T-14 at The Players Championship, confirms his improvement. Crucially, his past success at Memorial Park, where he finished T-4 in 2023, underscores his potential to perform well again, reinforcing OBrien's stance as Smalley presents noteworthy betting value.

Jim Sannes highlighted Alex Smalley as his favorite DFS choice within the upper $9,000 salary range this week. He expressed strong approval of Smalley's recent form, identifying Smalley's consistent and good play as the primary reason behind this elevated DFS optimism. Although he didn't initially rank Smalley high, after deeper consideration, Smalley now unequivocally leads Jim's preferences in the upper 9K tier.

Kenny Kim identifies Alex Smalley as a strong DFS option, citing his impressive Tee-to-Green consistency, highlighting that Smalley ranks fourth on tour in Strokes Gained Total this season. Although Kenny acknowledges Smalley will likely carry significant DFS attention, he believes Smalley's steady ball-striking and solid all-around performance strongly justify his popularity. Kenny further suggests pivoting to Max Greyserman, whose quality iron play and stellar short-game could offer lower-owned DFS differentiation if Smalley becomes too highly rostered.

Wes Reynolds recommends Alex Smalley as a strong top-20 positional bet, citing his remarkable recent consistency despite missing last week's cut. Smalley has placed in the top-20 in six of his last nine events, including finishes of 14th, 18th, 21st, and two T-30 results. Through stout ball-striking and reliable form heading into Memorial Park, Reynolds believes Smalley can comfortably achieve another high finish, although he stops short of backing him outright to win due to his lack of contention finishes.

Eric Polzin identified Alex Smalley as a promising bounce-back candidate at the Houston Open, despite struggling in windy conditions last week. Polzin highlighted that poor performances in adverse weather situations, like Smalley experienced, can often be discounted. Smalley's statistical profile aligns exceptionally well with what's historically succeeded at this event, showcasing key strengths in total driving, strokes gained around the green, and effective scoring categories, making him an appealing DFS target.

Rick Gehman called Alex Smalley blatantly mispriced at $8,200 on DraftKings, believing a more fitting price for Smalley would've been around the $9,200 range. Despite a missed cut at last year's event, Smalley previously posted strong Memorial Park finishes (T4 and T15). Recent results showcase his versatility across easier and tougher venues, with recent notable finishes such as T10 in Mexico, T14 at the Players Championship, and T18 at Cognizant. Gehman advocated heavily for embracing the chalk despite expected high ownership, confident that Smalley’s win equity strongly justifies eating the high percentage.

Keith Stewart sees value in backing Alex Smalley at attractive odds, based on his impressive consistency. Smalley has six top-21 finishes in seven starts this year and ranks consistently high in total strokes gained. Stewart particularly notes Smalley's recent performance at the Players Championship, where he gained nine strokes tee-to-green, his tenth straight start with positive tee-to-green metrics. Stewart emphasizes Smalley's well-rounded skill set making him primed to excel on a course where precise iron play and short-range scoring are crucial.

David Barnett discussed Alex Smalley as a potentially good DFS play despite his off-course image of being 'beta' due to wearing a mask in a recent video. Barnett acknowledged his hesitance but noted Smalley's skill and potential, emphasizing his consistent performance even if he disagrees with Smalley's personal choices. Ultimately, Barnett pointed out that Smalley is a strong player who could perform well in lineups, separating personal judgments from performance metrics.

Mike McClure advocated for Alex Smalley as an exciting value play in the $9K range, arguing that while his name recognition doesn't match his past success, his performance does. McClure pointed out Smalley's impressive form throughout 2025 has catapulted him from the $6,000 to the $9,000 range due to top-tier stats. Despite a minor dip in a recent event, Smalley's overall game remains strong and, McClure predicts, his ownership will be lower, making him a great overnight play with significant return potential.

Chris Breece is betting on Alex Smalley to win at +4500, driven by his stellar stats such as third in Strokes Gained: Total, fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, and second in SG: Around-the-Green. Despite faltering at THE PLAYERS, Breece believes Smalley can leverage these numbers for a win.

Will Gray expressed confidence in Alex Smalley achieving a top 20 finish despite inconsistencies closing on Sundays. Smalley's stats are impressive, with continual improvements evident from his play. Gray noted that a top 20 finish at +200 mirrors Smalley's potential as he continues to progress.

Rick Gehman continues to highly endorse Alex Smalley for DFS lineups at the Valspar Championship, citing Smalley's continuous hot streak. Smalley recently delivered another top-15 finish at a very low DraftKings price and has compiled six top-25 finishes in his last seven starts. His consistent success is statistically backed by a significant improvement from tee-to-green, gaining 1.4 strokes per round in that category. Gehman further reinforced this view by pointing out that Smalley ranks as the eighth-best golfer in the field over the last 36 rounds, gaining over a stroke per round compared to his 100-round baseline. Gehman intends to keep supporting Smalley until his upward trend clearly stops.

Barry Plummer identified Alex Smalley as a strong betting outsider at +4000 for the Valspar Championship. Smalley has consistently stacked quality finishes, securing six top-21 showings in his last seven starts. Plummer particularly highlighted Smalley's impressive performance at TPC Sawgrass during The Players Championship, demonstrating his ability to contend in strong fields. Smalley’s strong position (20th) for Driving Accuracy and (23rd) for Strokes Gained: Tee to Green over the last three months matches the precise skill set needed to navigate the demanding Copperhead Course. His prior success at similar tests like the 3M Open and RSM Classic gives further confidence in Smalley's potential for a breakthrough.

Mike McClure's proven SportsLine model highlights Alex Smalley as an undervalued competitor primed for a surprise achievement at the 2025 Valspar Championship. Currently at appealing odds of 45-1, Smalley brings highly impressive form and key analytical metrics making him a target worth considering. The model emphasizes Smalley's consistency, evidenced by his T-18 finishes or better in five of his seven starts this season. Recently, he performed strongly at the Players Championship, earning a T-14 finish. Crucially, Smalley ranks exceptionally well in significant statistical measures—second in overall scoring average (68.36), third in strokes gained total (1.805), and eleventh in strokes gained off the tee (0.572). Given this toolbox of skill, McClure believes Smalley's betting price represents immense value, offering the potential for a substantial payout.

Justin Van Zuiden identified Alex Smalley as a solid DFS pick due to his quality iron play. He specifically mentioned Smalley's strength in ball striking, finding good value at his current DFS price point for THE PLAYERS Championship.

Tyler Tamboline highlighted Alex Smalley as a strong pivot at just $5,400 on DraftKings, noting Smalley's impressive recent play. While public attention focuses on players like Doug Ghim around this salary range, Tamboline explained the optimizer was consistently projecting Smalley favorably. Due to this overlooked status and solid recent performances, Smalley presents a compelling pivot option for those looking to differentiate their lineups at minimal expense.

Pat Perry recommended betting Alex Smalley at 120-1, highlighting his current good form. Smalley ranks inside the top 30 of the betting model, reflecting his consistent recent performances with back-to-back top 20 finishes. Perry pointed out Smalley's poor historical results at Sawgrass but suggested disregarding course history in favor of current strong play and attractive odds this week.

Matt Gannon called out Alex Smalley at $5,400 as a valuable DFS play, noting Smalley's extremely reliable ball striking as a reason he'll likely secure a top-20 or top-30 finish. While he may not contend to win the event outright, Gannon believes Smalley provides excellent, affordable roster flexibility and makes for an attractive option to round out lineups needing a solid cut-maker with upside.

Eric Polzin called Alex Smalley the most egregious mispricing on the DFS market this week. Smalley rates highly across multiple statistical categories, ranking top-6 overall, showcasing elite figures in effective birdie-to-bogey ratio, good drive percentage, strokes gained off-the-tee, and par-5 scoring. With three consecutive made cuts, including 10th, 18th, and 21st-place results, Smalley presents standout DFS value despite his modest course-history results (one missed cut and a distant finish). Polzin confidently projects him as a valuable safe DFS building-block at a surprisingly low price.

Rick Gehman called out Alex Smalley as severely underpriced at $5,400 given his recent form and performance metrics. He highlighted that since the start of 2025, Smalley ranks sixth in strokes gained total among all competitors in THE PLAYERS Championship field. Gehman referenced Smalley's sustained quality of play, emphasizing that his metrics are close to other notable golfers (e.g., Sepp Straka). Given his extremely low DFS pricing at $5,400 relative to his production, Gehman recommended him as an exceptional value who allows lineup flexibility to roster multiple elite-priced golfers.

Iain MacMillan recommended Alex Smalley to finish top-20 at THE PLAYERS Championship (+360 odds), labeling him as potentially the most underrated golfer of 2025 to date. Smalley has placed T21 or better in five of six recent starts, consistently displaying his exceptional driving accuracy—key to succeeding at Sawgrass. While MacMillan is hesitant to back him outright after Smalley missed taking advantage in contention at the Mexico Open, he considers him a fantastic value bet for a solid top-20 finish given the course alignment with his strengths.