Jason Sobel highlights Billy Horschel as a compelling outright long-shot at 170-to-1 odds, largely due to his strong local ties and success history. TPC Sawgrass is a home venue for Horschel where he regularly practices, and his coach Todd Anderson leads instruction there, reflecting significant course familiarity. Sobel emphasizes Horschel's proven winning history (eight PGA Tour titles) and stated ambition to win in his home state of Florida, providing enough upside to make the wager attractive despite recent spotty form.