Pat Mayo revealed he added Chris Kirk deep down the outright board and will look for top-20/30 props as well. Mayo connected Royal Troon’s profile to Florida venues like PGA National and TPC Sawgrass — spots where Kirk thrives by keeping the ball in play and leaning on a streaky putter. He emphasized that Open winners skew older than winners of the other majors, making the 39-year-old’s veteran savvy an under-appreciated asset. With Troon’s tiny, elevated greens rewarding precise second shots and short-game touch, Mayo believes Kirk’s ability to flight wedges plus scramble efficiently positions him to cash long-number tickets.

Matt Gannon recommended Chris Kirk at +400 for a Top-20, pointing to the veteran’s elite driving accuracy and rock-solid iron play that nearly netted him a win in Detroit. Kirk ranks top-10 on TOUR in fairways hit and has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts, traits tailor-made for Portrush’s penal rough and tiny landing zones. Gannon views Kirk as a safe cut-maker with realistic back-door top-10 potential if the putter cooperates.

Pat Mayo doubled-down on Chris Kirk as a triple-digit outright he trusts more than the boom-bust youngsters in the same range. Mayo argued that recent Champion-Golfer history overwhelmingly skews toward seasoned players – citing Darren Clarke (age 42), Henrik Stenson (40), Zach Johnson (39) and last year’s winner Brian Harman (36) – while true prodigy breakthroughs such as Collin Morikawa remain the exception. Kirk’s age-38 résumé fits that pattern and, in Mayo’s view, pairs perfectly with his earlier case for Kirk’s PGA National comp wins and top-10 fairway-gained/around-the-green numbers. With Royal Portrush punishing wild tee shots and requiring veteran guile in the wind, Mayo prefers Kirk’s "seen it all" toolbox to the raw ceilings of Davis Thompson or Daniel Berger at similar odds. He reiterated that Kirk at 100-to-1 outright plus 8-to-1 Top-10 bets offers a sturdier path to profit than chasing unproven kids simply hoping for a spike week.

Pat Mayo spotlighted Chris Kirk at 100-to-1, tying Kirk’s value to his proven success on close comp tracks—wins at PGA National and Kapalua, both venues featuring slow, grainy greens and penal misses off the tee. Mayo noted Kirk’s form is sneaky good: solo 2nd in a Rocket Mortgage playoff, T12 at the U.S. Open, and a handful of top-30s where a single cold round masked otherwise elite tee-to-green numbers. Kirk ranks 9th in driving accuracy over his past 24 rounds and sits 14th in strokes-gained around the green, skills Mayo believes are paramount at Portrush once the wind kicks up. With books offering 8-to-1 for a Top-10 and triple-digit outright tickets, Mayo is betting Kirk outright and top-eight each-way, trusting the 39-year-old’s veteran guile and buttery-smooth swing to lurk all weekend.

John Schwarb likes Chris Kirk at +3500 to close the deal one week after losing a three-man playoff in Detroit. Schwarb pointed to Kirk’s current form and his comfort at TPC Deere Run—four finishes of T23 or better in seven appearances, including T21 last year. Schwarb expects last week’s narrow miss to sharpen Kirk’s focus as he hunts his seventh PGA Tour victory in a field missing most elite names.

Brady Kannon said Chris Kirk is worth another wager at 38-1 even after last week’s playoff heartbreak in Detroit. Kannon leaned on Kirk’s elite wedge game (among the best in the field from 75-150 yards), a driving profile that is both long and accurate, and proven course history. Kirk owns five top-30 finishes in seven Deere starts and just added a runner-up at Detroit to three prior top-20s there, confirming the crossover form Kannon seeks. The tout also cited Kirk’s past victory at Colonial, another correlated layout, as evidence that his skill set matches TPC Deere Run’s efficiency-over-power demands.

Rick Gehman remains tentatively bullish on Chris Kirk, noting back-to-back events with +9 strokes tee-to-green and positive putting. Although an exhausting playoff loss could sap some energy, Gehman argued that one made putt last week would have priced Kirk near $10.2K; instead gamers get an $8K-range discount. Solid course history (multiple top-25s) and a fairway-first profile make him a balanced lineup anchor if ownership stays below 15%.

Kenny Kim is back on Chris Kirk at $8,900 after the veteran’s runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage and 12th at Oakmont. Kim’s model shows Kirk top-10 overall, 5th tee-to-green, 6th in iron play, 9th in greens-in-regulation gained and 13th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds. Kirk skipped the Travelers to focus on the Midwest swing and appears re-energized after considering time off earlier this summer. Kim downplayed any mental hangover from the missed four-footer that cost Kirk a playoff, noting the six-time winner has ‘handled worse things’ during his recovery from alcoholism. With a balanced profile tailor-made for wedge-heavy shootouts, Kim thinks the $8K price tag underrates Kirk’s win equity.

Bamford is sticking with Chris Kirk at 28/1 despite last week’s playoff loss in Detroit. Kirk gained over 3.5 strokes with the putter while ranking top-10 in SG Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green—an all-around recipe that travels to Deere Run, a venue where hot wedges and a sub-1.7 putts-per-GIR mark are essential. FedEx Cup urgency also matters: now 67th, Kirk sees this weak-field 500-pointer as his best chance to lock up a Playoff berth before August. Course history is quietly solid—five top-30s in seven visits, including sitting 6th through 54 holes in both 2013 and 2023 on these pure Bentgrass greens. Bamford expects Kirk’s elite iron play and renewed putting confidence to translate into a victory chase.

Steve Bamford pegged Chris Kirk at 70/1 as the archetypal course horse. Kirk has finished 21st-12th-17th-14th-44th in five straight Detroit starts, ranking 9th in this field for total strokes gained at the Rocket and 9th Tee-to-Green. He has been inside the top 11 entering Sunday four different years, showing real win equity on the layout. Fresh off a confidence-boosting 12th at Oakmont’s U.S. Open—where he ranked top-25 SG Tee-to-Green—Kirk skipped last week’s Travelers (poor historical fit) to target a two-event run of Detroit and Deere for playoff points (currently 101st in FedEx standings). Bamford cited top-10 SG Approach numbers over the last eight weeks and familiarity with these poa-bent greens; if the putter perks up, his steady all-around profile could finally convert long-standing course comfort into a trophy.

Pat Perry highlighted the strategic value in rostering affordable, lower-owned golfers like Chris Kirk in Millie Maker DFS contests. Referencing the successful $100 Millie Maker lineup that featured Chris Kirk at just 6.63% ownership, Perry emphasized the need to mix high-owned picks with carefully selected inexpensive, lower-owned options to achieve differentiation that can separate lineups in large-field GPPs. He advocated for blending popular value golfers with low-owned plays to strike the optimal balance required to win these tournaments.

Jamie Worsley selected Chris Kirk for his strong Texas Open track record and recent improvements in his putting performance. Although Kirk has endured a lackluster season so far with only one top-25 finish, he recently reversed his struggles on the greens with a solid putting performance (ranked 15th) at TPC Sawgrass. Kirk also consistently excels at TPC San Antonio, boasting four top-10 finishes in nine appearances, with the best being 6th in 2021. His past success at strongly correlated tournaments like the Sony Open (twice a runner-up) and a victory at the Cognizant Classic further support Kirk's potential for strong performance this weekend.

Ben Coley recommends Chris Kirk at generous 80/1 odds due to Kirk’s stellar record at the Valero Texas Open—five top-15 finishes in nine appearances. Kirk showed signs of putting improvements at TPC Sawgrass, his main area of recent weakness, underpinning potential gains. Furthermore, Kirk excels historically off-the-tee and with reliable irons at San Antonio. Coley sees Kirk’s veteran status, proficiency on similar courses, and recent glimpses of better putting as key indicators he's ready to deliver another strong showing prior to his Masters participation.

Matt Every voiced support for Chris Kirk's chances at the Valero Texas Open, primarily because Kirk's game historically aligns well with TPC San Antonio. Every elaborated that even during his own personal struggles as a pro golfer, he had success at Valero. Drawing from his experience, Every confidently stated some golfers just inherently perform well at this venue, indicating Kirk has a similar connection and comfort with TPC San Antonio that should help him overcome current form issues.

Pat Perry recommended considering Chris Kirk as a DFS pivot selection at $7400 on DraftKings, given his notable course history highlighted by a 6th and a 10th-place finish at Valero Texas Open. Perry mentioned Kirk has rebounded from a rough early season start, finding improved form lately and showcasing potential DFS upside as an under-the-radar value this week.

Kenny Kim highlighted Chris Kirk as a favorable DFS pivot off higher-owned players like Charley Hoffman due to similarly solid course history at Valero Texas Open. Kirk possesses an appealing track record here combined with proven win equity, making him an intriguing option at lower ownership levels. Kim explicitly stated Kirk could provide similar upside to golfers like Hoffman but at potentially lower DFS exposure, adding valuable tournament leverage opportunities.

Mike Petta identified Chris Kirk as an appealing DFS pivot off chalkier Doug Ghim due to their identical price but likely divergent ownership levels. Petta noted Ghim as somebody expected to attract significant ownership, recommending Kirk as the contrarian alternative for large-field tournaments. He emphasized this decision as primarily ownership-driven rather than heavily statistics-based, making Kirk an attractive ownership-based pivot to differentiate tournament lineups.