Mayo suggested fading Collin Morikawa’s first-round Fairways-Hit line of 8.5 despite Morikawa’s elite driving accuracy profile. The Cal-Berkeley product is also in the Thursday-AM draw when forecasted cross-winds reach their peak. With only 13 tee shots that actually count toward the prop (five holes are par-3s), Morikawa would need to split nine fairways in gusts Mayo expects to knock balls sideways. Mayo added that Renaissance Club’s wide landing areas tempt players to take aggressive driver lines; those usually help Morikawa, but he believes the combination of longer club selection and swirling wind raises the miss percentage just enough to justify an UNDER at plus money. He tacked the play onto his Underdog card, pairing it with Im’s GIR under and a Hovland over to balance exposure.

Smylie Kaufman flagged Collin Morikawa as a sneaky win target because he’s debuting legendary looper Billy Foster on the bag this week. Kaufman noted that Morikawa already owns a solid record at Renaissance Club and that Foster—fresh out of "retirement" after stints with major champions—gives Morikawa a different, more direct voice on club selection. Kaufman argued that Morikawa’s old-school, spin-manipulation approach with his irons can be tough for a new caddy, yet history shows players often pop in the first outing with a fresh bagman. Given Morikawa’s precise iron game and Foster’s proven major-championship pedigree, Kaufman believes the duo has immediate upside for an outright ticket or top-finish play at the Scottish.

Reynolds grabbed Collin Morikawa at 25-1 for the Scottish Open, arguing that a fresh partnership with veteran looper Billy Foster (Sebi Ballesteros, Darren Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick) is the perfect spark. Morikawa climbed to 8th in strokes-gained total his last start in Detroit and has already shown he can make a rapid links adjustment—he missed the cut at the 2021 Scottish Open, swapped out his blades, then won the Claret Jug seven days later. He missed the cut here on debut but rebounded to 4th last year, validating the learning curve. Foster’s encyclopedic knowledge of U.K. winds and green complexes plus Morikawa’s top-five irons (field-adjusted) convinced Reynolds the two-time major winner is undervalued in the mid-20s.

Kenny Kim named Collin Morikawa his first cash-game cornerstone, locking him into every double-up lineup at $9,600. Kim pointed to Morikawa’s elite ball-striking baseline and the added floor that comes from having veteran caddie Billy Foster on the bag for the next two weeks. Even if the new partnership is only neutral, Kenny does not see a realistic missed-cut path and thinks Morikawa’s win equity is as high as any player under $10K. Beginning builds with Morikawa allows a balanced roster that can stay entirely in the 7-8K range for the remaining four slots, avoiding volatile punt plays altogether. Kim’s takeaway: Morikawa’s combination of floor, price, and ceiling makes him an auto-click in cash formats.

Kenny Kim fired on Collin Morikawa at 30-1 (three places) because Billy Foster – long-time looper for Matt Fitzpatrick and Henrik Stenson – is on Morikawa’s bag for the next two weeks. Kim thinks Foster’s no-nonsense style will rein in Morikawa’s occasional stubborn club selections that have cost him recent Sunday chances. Morikawa’s ball-striking remains elite and he has both a claret jug and a fourth-place finish at Renaissance Club on his links resume. Unlike Rory or Xander, Kim expects Morikawa to treat this as a must-win rather than a tune-up because he has not lifted a trophy in 18 months. The combination of veteran caddie, proven course fit, and extra motivation makes 30-1 too long in Kim’s eyes.

Martin Matthews backed Collin Morikawa as his first outright because he sees multiple catalysts lining up. The two-time major winner has Billy Foster on the bag for this two-week Euro swing, and Matthews framed Foster’s experience as an immediate plus after Morikawa has shuffled through caddies all season. He cited the ‘new-caddie pop’ we have recently seen from Justin Thomas with Joe Greiner and Will Zalatoris at St. Jude. Morikawa’s iron play remains elite—he gained over five strokes on approach at both the U.S. Open and Detroit—but the putter has been ice-cold. Matthews thinks faster fescue greens combined with Morikawa’s constant putter tinkering could mask that weakness. He also likes the change of scenery; Morikawa has dealt with relentless U.S. media pressure and should enjoy looser vibes in Scotland. On a firm, second-shot track where accurate long irons rule, Matthews believes Morikawa’s profile plus Foster’s course-management chops make the Californian a live outright at 20-1 and a core DFS play.

Dom Cintorino fired on Collin Morikawa at 25-to-1, spotlighting several course-fit angles. Morikawa ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour in par-3 birdie-or-better rate—crucial at Renaissance Club, which features five par-3s on its par-70 card. He was top-5 in both ball-striking and approach at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, suggesting his irons are rounding into form. Morikawa placed T-4 here last year, and Matt Gannon added that veteran looper Billy Foster—who won the 2021 Scottish Open with Matt Fitzpatrick—has just taken Morikawa’s bag, giving him proven links expertise. With dry weather expected to add roll in the fairways and shorten the course, Cintorino believes Morikawa’s elite iron play and improved putting make him the best value in the 20-to-35-to-1 tier.

Gehman admitted he is a “glutton for punishment” with Collin Morikawa but laid out several reasons to buy. Morikawa’s ball-striking remains outrageous—10.5 SG: Tee-to-Green at Detroit and 16 at the U.S. Open—while the putter is trending the right way (-9.0 at Oakmont, ‑1.3 at Travelers, less than ‑1 at Detroit with positive strokes the final three days). At the Renaissance Club he has flipped from losing seven strokes putting in 2021 to gaining 3.0 in 2022 and 4.1 in 2024. Most intriguing, Billy Foster—one of the most respected links caddies—will be on the bag for both Scottish and Open weeks. Gehman expects Foster’s local knowledge plus Morikawa’s elite iron play to pay immediate dividends despite the $9,600 tag.

Paul Williams backed Collin Morikawa each-way at 22/1, arguing the American can steal the trophy while Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy keep half an eye on next week's Open. Williams noted Morikawa finally solved Renaissance in 2024, firing four rounds in the 60s and finishing 4th. He arrives with an even sharper long-game, ranked SG-positive in every tee-to-green category during his 8th-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Williams also highlighted a motivational boost: Morikawa hired veteran caddie Billy Foster for this two-week UK swing, a move the analyst thinks could act as a mental reset after three runner-up finishes and five other top-5s since his last win (2023 ZOZO). If the putter is merely average, Williams believes Morikawa can convert one of those near-misses into silverware.

Andy Lack said Collin Morikawa is one of the three PGA Tour players accurate enough to gain strokes off the tee at the Renaissance Club even when the setup clearly favors distance. Lack explained that calm, firm conditions turn the course into a "driver-putter" layout where most players bomb away, yet Morikawa’s elite fairway-finding lets him hang with the long hitters while avoiding the penal pop bunkers. He added that 57-60 percent of approaches come from 175 + yards, a proximity bucket where Morikawa’s long-iron prowess is already elite. Morikawa has posted strong Scottish Open results in prior years, reinforcing Lack’s comfort using him in DFS cores and as an outright bet despite average length off the tee.

Kenny Kim advised steering clear of Collin Morikawa in outright markets until the two-time major champ stops letting off-course drama rattle him. Kim said Morikawa looked “soft as baby poop” after publicly sparring with reporter Alan Shipnuck, then posted the third-worst putting round of his career on Thursday. Although Morikawa briefly clawed within a shot of the lead on Sunday, he evaporated over the final nine, continuing a recent trend of late collapses shared by fellow elite names like Fleetwood and Burns. Kim sees the combination of mental distraction, uncomfortable body language (covering his mouth while answering questions), and shaky flatstick form as red flags that outweigh his elite ball-striking for now. He is limiting Morikawa exposure to top-20 props or matchup fades until the Californian’s focus and putting metrics rebound.

Pat Fitzmaurice advised passing on Collin Morikawa at the top of the outright board despite his world No. 5 status and runner-up finish here in 2023. Fitzmaurice stressed the Rocket Mortgage routinely devolves into a putting contest—winners average nearly 1.5 strokes gained putting per round—and Morikawa sits 109th on Tour in that metric. Detroit’s generous fairways neutralize Morikawa’s elite iron play while exposing his below-average birdie conversion rate. With only four of six winners here priced shorter than 25-1 and several streaking putters in the mid-tier, Fitzmaurice says the +1200 market leader is "all name value, no edge" and prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere.

MacMillan’s bold prop is Morikawa to MISS the cut at +400. The two-time major champ hasn’t logged a top-10 since THE PLAYERS in March and limped to T42 at Travelers while actually losing strokes with his vaunted irons—an alarming signal for a player who lives and dies with approach play. With form sliding and no course history edge, MacMillan is comfortable fading the betting favorite.

Kenny Kim argued Collin Morikawa could become the leverage play of the week in DFS if early ownership projections remain below 20 percent. Morikawa hasn’t played a non-signature event all season and still ranks third in Kim’s model for easy-condition scoring and sixth in birdie-or-better gained on easy tracks. While a mediocre iron week at the Travelers has the community spooked, Kim pointed out this will be the easiest course Morikawa has seen since posting a 5th-place at Pebble Beach. With no Scheffler, McIlroy or Schauffele in the field, Morikawa is the lone “elite of the elite.” If his ownership truly stays in the mid-teens, Kim plans to jam him into both cash and GPP builds, betting on a bounce-back ball-striking performance against soft competition.

Byron Lindeque said a Collin Morikawa top-20 ticket at −135 is still under-valued. His placement model shows Morikawa finishing inside the top-20 56% of the time over the past year, while his top-10 rate sits at just 17%. Morikawa ranks second overall and first for "safety" in Lindeque’s six-category model that weighs distance on 7,200-plus-yard layouts, easy-scoring dominance, and Donald Ross history. Lindeque noted Morikawa hasn’t cracked a top-10 since publicly declaring he “doesn’t owe us anything,” so he prefers the low-variance placement rather than outright or top-10 wagers.

Eric Polzin said Collin Morikawa should be the first name into Rocket Classic line-ups and belongs on every outright betting card at 12-to-1. Morikawa is one of only three players to earn a "core play" tag from the Nine-to-Five model this week, a designation Polzin noted is rare when the field feels volatile. Despite a modest salary bump, the former Open champ is affordable enough to jam into balanced DraftKings builds. Polzin highlighted his elite ball-striking over the last 24 rounds and the fact that Detroit Golf Club rewards the precise iron play that has long been Morikawa’s calling card. While the Californian’s form "has felt like a win was coming" before dipping slightly, Polzin trusts the underlying numbers and prefers him to the similarly priced Patrick Cantlay and Keegan Bradley. He is comfortable betting Morikawa outright down to 12-1 and building cash or GPP DFS cores around him.

Rick Gehman warned against paying $10.9K for Collin Morikawa despite his talent edge. Morikawa lost a brutal nine strokes putting at the U.S. Open and another 1.3 at the Travelers, bringing his total to nearly –10 with the flat stick over his last eight rounds. Even the iron play dipped at River Highlands as he posted negative strokes-gained approach. Detroit’s winning score often pushes –20, so Gehman questions whether Morikawa can hole enough birdie putts. Although he finished T2 here in 2023, Gehman views the recent putting collapse and mediocre ball-striking trend as red flags, making Morikawa an avoid or underweight DFS option unless projected ownership craters.

Shane Bacon cautioned bettors against chasing Collin Morikawa at single-digit odds, arguing the Rocket Mortgage typically turns into a putting contest and Morikawa ranks outside the top-80 in this field in strokes-gained putting over the last 12 rounds. With no win since 2023 and a likely eye on the Open Championship, Bacon sees poor value in the price.

Barnett’s “lock” top-10 is Collin Morikawa at +140. The two-time major winner gained over seven strokes on approach at Oakmont and enters Travelers having finished T4, T9, and T2 in his last three non-majors. River Highlands sets up as a wedge-fest, and Morikawa leads the field in proximity from 125-150 yards over the past 24 rounds. With no cut to worry about, Barnett calls a plus-money top-10 on one of the best iron players in the world “as safe as it gets.”

Wes Renoylds said Collin Morikawa is a buy-low option for the Travelers after turning in one of the most lopsided stat lines of his career at the U.S. Open. Morikawa ranked 1st in the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green, 18th Around-the-Green and 29th Off-the-Tee among players who made the cut, but finished dead last in putting, surrendering almost nine strokes on the greens – the worst PGA-Tour putting performance of his career. Renoylds argued that small, pure Bent/Poa greens at TPC River Highlands should mute Morikawa’s weakness, and any neutral week with the flat stick immediately puts him in contention on a 6,844-yard layout that de-emphasizes driving distance. With winning scores pushing 22-under the last two seasons, Renoylds expects a birdie fest in which Morikawa’s elite wedge game can finally translate into scoring if he merely gains a stroke or two with the putter. He recommended outrights and DFS exposure before markets price in obvious putting-regression upside.

Jason Sobel backed Collin Morikawa at +1600 to win the Travelers Championship, calling him the most attractive name once Scottie Scheffler’s ultra-short +275 number was crossed off. Sobel noted Morikawa led the entire U.S. Open field in final-round approach play at Oakmont en route to a quiet T-23, the kind of ‘simmering form’ he likes to target the week after a major. The two-time major champ also finished T-13 at TPC River Highlands last season, giving him course comfort on a layout where iron play and precision wedges dominate. With a 70-man signature-event field tightening win equity, Sobel believes Morikawa’s elite irons and modest betting price combine for the best conservative outright ticket.

Iain MacMillan prefers Collin Morikawa in the First Round Leader market at +2500 because the two-time major champ keeps flashing his best stuff on Thursdays yet struggles to close. MacMillan said Morikawa’s elite iron play is tailor-made for the wedge-heavy River Highlands layout, making a fast start far more plausible than a four-day victory.

Pat Mayo jumped back in at 18-1 after Morikawa led the U.S. Open field by nearly three strokes on approach yet lost 8.8 strokes putting. Mayo cited a five-tournament sample in which every time Morikawa lost 2.5+ strokes putting, he gained at least 2.7 with the flat stick the very next start. With his irons suddenly "BIGLY" dialed in again and TPC River Highlands rewarding precise mid-irons, Mayo believes the two-time major winner rebounds with a win.

Wes Reynolds backed Collin Morikawa at 18/1 on FanDuel, pointing to a ridiculous tee-to-green profile that screams win equity at TPC River Highlands. Morikawa led last week’s U.S. Open field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee-to-Green and overall Ball Striking while ranking second in Greens in Regulation, yet he finished only T-23 because he hemorrhaged nearly nine strokes with the putter—his worst putting week in almost five years. Reynolds expects immediate positive regression on the greens after Morikawa had gained strokes putting in three consecutive starts prior to Oakmont. With River Highlands rewarding precise irons more than length and presenting Poa-bent surfaces Morikawa has handled in the past, Reynolds thinks the two-time major champ converts elite ball-striking into a Sunday trophy.

Wes Reynolds bet Collin Morikawa 18/1 on FanDuel, arguing the U.S. Open stat profile screams buy-low. Morikawa actually led the field at Oakmont in Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Ball Striking while ranking second in Greens in Regulation, yet he stumbled to a T-23 because he hemorrhaged almost nine strokes with the putter—his worst putting week in nearly five years. Reynolds noted Morikawa had gained strokes putting in three straight starts prior to Oakmont, so positive regression on the greens paired with his intact iron play makes him a prime contender at the shortest course on TOUR.

Byron Lindeque told listeners to stay away from Collin Morikawa in DFS builds this week. He acknowledged Morikawa’s eye-popping ball-striking at Pinehurst (+6.3 SG Ball-Striking in Round 1, +11.9 for the week) but pointed out that it still translated to a middling finish because the Californian bled nine strokes on the greens. Byron does not expect positive regression at TPC River Highlands, noting that Morikawa has never posted a top-10 here despite four trips and that his best finish anywhere this year outside the Masters is T14. Lindeque thinks paying five-figure salary for a player who has not won since 2023 and has no course pedigree is a recipe for dead money in large-field GPPs.

Byron Lindeque called Collin Morikawa a must-buy at TPC River Highlands. ShotLink showed Morikawa gained 6.3 strokes ball-striking in Round 1 at Pinehurst—his second-best round ever—and for the week he finished 1st in approach, 6th off the tee and inside the top-20 around the green. The only thing that kept him outside the top-20 on the leaderboard was an abysmal –9 strokes putting. Lindeque expects that negative variance to normalize on River Highlands’ simpler bent/poa mix. Because distance is muted here and irons win, Byron likes Morikawa’s outright number around 20-1, top-10 props, and his $9.6K DraftKings salary for DFS GPPs.

Pat Mayo said he already fired a 22-to-1 outright on Collin Morikawa and urged listeners to grab anything 20-1 or longer before the market catches up. Mayo pointed out that Morikawa led the entire U.S. Open field in Strokes Gained: Approach, the first time his irons have looked truly elite since 2021. The only thing holding him back at Pinehurst was a frigid putter—he failed to gain strokes on the greens in any round—so Mayo expects positive regression on TPC River Highlands’ purer surfaces. Because the Travelers plays as a wedge-heavy birdie track where approach play dominates scoring, Mayo believes Morikawa’s tee-to-green ceiling fits perfectly in the no-cut signature event. A win would wipe away the “hasn’t closed in yearsâ€� narrative and essentially lock up his FedExCup positioning, making current odds a clear buy in outrights, one-and-done, and Scheffler-excluded markets.

Gehman advised caution on Collin Morikawa despite the discounted $10.2K tag. Morikawa has never cracked the top-12 at the Travelers (best finish T13, two missed cuts, T36) and hemorrhaged eight strokes putting at Oakmont. He has lost strokes with the flat stick in five of his last eight starts, a glaring issue on TPC River Highlands’ pure but tilt-inducing surfaces. With Scheffler and Schauffele offering similar ceiling but far safer floors, Gehman is comfortable leaving Morikawa off DFS builds this week.

Andy Lack said Collin Morikawa is back on the short list for TPC River Highlands but only at the right price. Morikawa’s irons remain world-class—he still gains over a stroke per round on approach this season and will see nearly 60 percent of shots inside 175 yards, a wheel-house that historically produces spike weeks for him. However, Lack reminded listeners that Morikawa has failed to beat Scottie Scheffler across four rounds for two straight years, so any outright shorter than 30-to-1 is, in Lack’s words, 'mis-priced by at least a full tier.' The plan is to monitor books that over-react to Morikawa’s missed putts at Oakmont; if a ‘3’ shows up in front of his number, Lack will fire outrights and anchor DFS GPP builds, trusting the iron ceiling on a less-than-driver track where putting variance is muted.

Andy Lack urged listeners to stay away from Collin Morikawa outright and in high-priced DFS builds. While River Highlands is theoretically perfect for Morikawa’s elite short- and mid-iron game, the Californian keeps squandering chances with what Lack called “completely gutless putting.” Morikawa lost over 4 strokes on the greens at Oakmont—his worst performance in more than two years—and similar surface types await in Cromwell. Lack noted Morikawa has not beaten Scottie Scheffler over four rounds in any event for two full seasons, and his only Travelers start in that span produced a T54 despite strong tee-to-green numbers. Without evidence of a hot putter, Lack argued Morikawa’s ceiling is capped at a back-door T20, making a 20-to-1 outright tag and a probable 10K DraftKings salary overpriced. He will look to short Morikawa in matchups and fade him in DFS unless the flatstick shows real life early in the week.

Farnsworth called Oakmont ‘the best U.S. Open course imaginable’ for Collin Morikawa. Morikawa sits third or fourth on Tour in driving accuracy this season and ranks top-7 in the field over every recent sample. Combine that with elite iron play and a historically strong GIR rate and he checks every statistical box Farnsworth weighted (accuracy, approach, greens-in-reg). The short game dip worries him less because Morikawa had turned that area into a plus the last two years. At $9,800, Farnsworth expects Morikawa to contend and will be overweight.

Brian Giuffra wagered Morikawa +1800 in the ‘winner without Scheffler’ market and sprinkled +2500 outright. He cited Morikawa’s U.S. Open pedigree (two previous Top-5s and two additional Top-15s) and pinpoint accuracy—2nd on tour at 72.9% fairways—as perfect for Oakmont’s penal rough. Giuffra added that the long par-3s play into Morikawa’s mid- and long-iron strengths, and the two-time major winner has gained strokes putting in three straight starts. The only box unchecked is recent victory, but Giuffra argues Oakmont is a "ball-strikers’ paradise" tailor-made for Morikawa’s skill set.

Brian Giuffra wagered on Collin Morikawa at +2500 (outright) and +1800 in the ‘without Scheffler’ market. Giuffra pointed to Morikawa’s U.S. Open record—two top-5s and two additional top-15s—and called Oakmont a perfect fit because it rewards accuracy. Morikawa ranks 2nd on Tour in fairways hit (72.87%) and is among the best with mid-to-long irons, a key on Oakmont’s lengthy par-3s. Importantly, Morikawa has gained strokes putting in three straight starts, addressing his perennial weakness. Giuffra thinks that combination of driving accuracy, iron prowess, and improved putting gives Morikawa the best chance to upset Scheffler.

Drew Stoltz bet Collin Morikawa to finish inside the top 10 at +210 on Fanatics Sportsbook. Stoltz pointed to Morikawa ranking 2nd in driving accuracy on Tour, a crucial edge on Oakmont’s brutally narrow fairways. He added that Morikawa’s iron game trails only Scottie Scheffler and that the two-time major champ has finished top-20 in five of his last six majors. Morikawa’s U.S. Open track record—4th, 5th, 14th, 14th the past four years—convinced Stoltz he is the best challenger to Scheffler and a plus-value play for bettors hunting placement props.

Dom Cintorino locked in Collin Morikawa at 28-1 (T7 EW). Morikawa ranks top-10 this season in strokes-gained approach, proximity, and putting average while sitting 2nd in driving accuracy—traits Dom deems essential for Oakmont’s fairway/green demands. Morikawa owns three straight top-15 finishes in U.S. Opens, proving he can survive tough setups. Dom believes the extra few points of drift from 25-1 to 28-1 finally make Morikawa the best buy in the Rom/Rory/Xander tier.

Chivers advised pouncing on Collin Morikawa now that his odds have ballooned from 16/1 to 25/1. Morikawa finished T3 at the 2024 Masters, T4 at the PGA, and placed inside the top-20 at the other two majors, all while ranking 5th in total strokes gained, 7th in driving accuracy, and 9th in scrambling last year. Although the putter was outside the top-70, Morikawa opened 2025 with 2nd at the Sentry, top-20s at Pebble and the Genesis, T10 at THE PLAYERS, and T14 at Augusta. He currently sits inside the top-6 for strokes gained tee-to-green and approach and is 2nd in driving accuracy. Chivers loves those attributes for Oakmont’s narrow corridors and penal rough and argues the drift offers serious value on a player whose precision irons and tidy short game can mask a cold putter.

Camenker recommended taking the +2500 outright price on Collin Morikawa, highlighting that Morikawa ranks second on Tour in driving accuracy— a critical skill with Oakmont’s brutally penal rough. The 28-year-old has not missed a cut in 11 starts this year and owns eight top-20 finishes, underscoring both floor and upside. If his trademark ball-striking shows up, Camenker thinks Morikawa will stay in the fairway, pepper greens, and keep himself on the first page of the leaderboard all week, making him a strong outright and "make-the-cut" wager.

Adam Burke recommended betting Collin Morikawa to finish top-5 at +360 because Oakmont’s brutal rough and runway-fast greens amplify the value of elite accuracy. Morikawa ranks 2nd on tour in driving-accuracy percentage (72.8%) and sits inside the top-20 in fairway-proximity, giving him a strong chance to avoid the gnarly U.S. Open rough and leave stress-free approach putts. While his long-iron numbers are merely 48th in approaches from 200+ yards and he has yet to post many high finishes this season, Burke believes the course fit outweighs recent form thanks to Morikawa’s neutral marks in approach-putt performance and 3-putt avoidance—two additional stats Burke identified as critical at Oakmont’s slick greens.