Brandon Gdula moved to the finishing-position market and played Collin Morikawa at +400 to finish top five. Morikawa sits seventh in ball-striking over the last 36 rounds and is essentially level with the top four, giving him a massive tee-to-green ceiling in a 30-golfer field. Although his short game rates worst in the field over the last 50 rounds, Gdula argued Morikawa needs only a neutral putting week to cash, and the +400 price fully accounts for the weakness while allowing bettors to avoid a matchup with Scheffler. With several players likely non-competitive, Gdula sees an expanded pathway to a top-five finish.

Brandon Gdula is cautiously buying Collin Morikawa—just not in the outright market. Morikawa is 30/1 despite ranking 8th in ball-striking over the last 36 rounds and owning the lowest gross score at East Lake a year ago. He has three top-7 raw-scoring finishes in five Tour Championship starts. The catch: his short game is dead last in the field, losing 0.45 strokes per round over his last 50 rounds. Gdula is ‘intrigued’ by the number but prefers using Morikawa in placement bets or DFS lineups ($10,200) where his elite tee-to-green ceiling can pay off without requiring a perfect putting week.

Derek Farnsworth said Collin Morikawa is both an outright bet and a core DFS play at $8,300. Morikawa posted the lowest 72-hole aggregate at East Lake last year once starting strokes are removed, a stat Farnsworth weighs more than the official finish. Recent form shows T33 and T22 in his last two starts with elite ball-striking, while poor putting and around-the-green play have masked how well he is hitting it. Morikawa also fired his caddie, a move Farnsworth believes will scare the field and keep ownership down. Given the price discount, positive course history in raw scoring, and model projection, Farnsworth views him as an ‘under-overlooked’ tournament winner in DFS lineups.

Keith Stewart also spotlighted Collin Morikawa as a viable alternative to Scheffler. Morikawa is second on Tour in fairways gained and historically gains more than a stroke per round at East Lake thanks to elite approach play. Stewart argued that avoiding the Bermuda rough is paramount this week and Morikawa’s precision off the tee, combined with top-10 par-4 scoring, fits that bill perfectly. Priced around 30-1 with the winning score expected near −17.5, Morikawa’s accuracy-first profile makes him Stewart’s favorite precision play to steal the Tour Championship should Scheffler misfire.

Gehman warned against rostering Collin Morikawa, pointing out that Morikawa has bled almost ten strokes putting over his last eight measured rounds, lost strokes around the green in five of his last six and continues to produce ‘wipey’ misses with the driver. While a spike-week of +6 strokes on approach is always possible, Eastlake’s narrow fairways make the current driver issues a DFS landmine in Gehman’s view.

Pat Mayo identified Collin Morikawa as an under-the-radar play for East Lake after noticing a quiet surge in his core strengths. At the BMW he ranked 3rd in Approach and 21st Off-the-Tee, indicators that his trademark tee-to-green dominance is resurfacing, while poor putting (bottom-10 in both Putting and Around-the-Green) is masking the resurgence in public perception. Mayo reminded listeners that Morikawa finished strongly at East Lake last year and currently sits 2nd in Fairway Accuracy and 37th in Driving Distance over the past three months— the exact profile Mayo is targeting for this track. With inevitable debate about Ryder Cup roster spots circling, Mayo expects a motivated Morikawa and is “all in” if sportsbooks discount him due to recent short-game woes. DFS gamers looking for elite ball-striking leverage and bettors seeking a mid-range outright or top-5 number should circle Morikawa early.

Wiley labeled Collin Morikawa "the worst value on the board," scoffing at the narrative that yet another caddie tweak will fix Morikawa’s slump. Even with elite approach numbers, Morikawa’s continued struggles on fast bentgrass greens and lack of recent high finishes make his short outright odds and premium DFS salary impossible for Wiley to justify. If Morikawa isn’t gaining with the putter, Wiley sees little chance he cracks the mandatory top-10 threshold in a 50-man shootout.

Matthew Wiley put Collin Morikawa in his "worst plays on the board" bucket. Morikawa continues to bleed strokes with the putter, and Wiley’s 30-day form model—which heavily weights putting and birdie conversion—punishes that flaw. Wiley cautioned that chasing Morikawa’s elite approach play is a trap when the event demands converting chances into birdies at an above-average clip. He is steering clear of Morikawa in both DFS lineups and outright markets, saying the current profile cannot reach the projected −19 winning mark.

Lindeque urged caution on Collin Morikawa, noting the ball-striking wizard has cracked the top 14 only once in the same 10-event window where Ben Griffin has done it eight times. He questioned Morikawa’s ability to handle Sunday pressure—"he was going to win this tournament Friday afternoon" but disappeared by Sunday—and said the two-time major winner is "no longer part of the core" for Team USA until the swing mechanics click again. For DFS and betting markets, Lindeque recommends fading Morikawa in tight pricing tiers and waiting for tangible signs of a turnaround before buying back in.

Dom Cintorino bet Collin Morikawa outright at 33-1 with a top-6 each-way. He felt the number had slid "too far" after liking what he saw from Morikawa last week and trusts Morikawa’s trademark iron play to separate on a ball-striker’s course in a no-cut, 50-man field. The each-way covers a high-floor top finish while preserving upside if the irons carry him to the trophy.

Gannon argued the market has over-corrected on Collin Morikawa, who is out to 33-1 in a 50-man, no-cut playoff event. While distance is not Morikawa’s calling card, Gannon emphasized that Caves Valley’s demanding approach shots play directly into his strength with long irons. Morikawa gained almost six strokes on approach last week—his best number of the season—and posted similar spikes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Oakmont. He has proven he can contend on big ballparks such as Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village. With a top-six each-way available, Gannon views 33-1 as too long for an elite iron player whose form is trending up.

Brandon Gdula said Collin Morikawa is firmly on his betting/DFS list at TPC Southwind despite back-to-back missed cuts at the Scottish Open and Open Championship. Gdula trusts Morikawa’s trademark iron accuracy on a course that rewards precision and pointed to rock-solid history here: five straight top-26 finishes with positive putting in four of those trips. The combination of elite approach play and proven comfort on these greens offsets the recent dip in form, making Morikawa a viable outright or DFS anchor this week.

Gdula acknowledged Collin Morikawa arrives off back-to-back missed cuts (Scottish Open and The Open), yet he still views the two-time major winner as playable because Southwind accentuates Morikawa’s elite iron accuracy. Morikawa has finished 26th or better in all five career starts here and gained strokes putting in four of those, mitigating his usual short-game concerns. With distance less correlated to success this week and approach almost a binary requirement, Gdula is willing to give Morikawa another shot in DFS and as a long-shot outright, citing the course’s history of rewarding pure ball strikers even when recent form is lukewarm.

Coley backed Collin Morikawa for 2 points each-way at 33/1, arguing the price drift is an overreaction to two links-course missed cuts. Prior to Scotland and Portrush, Morikawa was eighth on his last US start while ranking 3rd in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and he led that same metric at the US Open. Southwind has always suited his precision: five career visits have produced no finish worse than 26th and a best of 5th in 2022, when he arrived off two Scottish missed cuts—an almost identical lead-in. Coley notes Morikawa has historically putted well here, a welcome antidote to his periodic “putting funks,” and may feel extra motivation with Ryder Cup places on the line. Having been 14-20/1 all season in stronger fields, 33/1 in a 69-man playoff event without Rory McIlroy is, in Coley’s view, “a massive price.”

Wes Reynolds advised grabbing Collin Morikawa at 34-1, noting this is the first time all season the two-time major winner has drifted into the mid-30s despite Scottie Scheffler anchoring the field. Morikawa is second in Opportunities Gained over his last 50 rounds (46.7) and tops the PGA Tour in Fairways Hit (71.33%) behind only Aaron Rai. Although he missed the cut at both the Scottish and British Opens, Morikawa was eighth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic immediately beforehand and features fifth-place proximity numbers across key 125-200-yard ranges. With Mark Urbanek on the bag this week and Ryder Cup positioning still on the line, Reynolds believes Southwind’s approach-heavy test is the perfect spot to “buy the dip” on an elite iron player.

Glasscott advised against backing Collin Morikawa at +3000. The two-time major champion is on his third caddie of 2025 and arrives off back-to-back missed cuts in Scotland and at Portrush. While he owns 17 of 20 rounds at par or better at Southwind and finished solo fifth here in 2022, Morikawa has not won on TOUR since fall 2023, and the instability on the bag plus a cold putter leave Glasscott questioning his ceiling relative to equally priced peers.

Joe Idone warned that Collin Morikawa’s current form makes him a risky DFS and betting play for the opening leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs in Memphis. Idone acknowledged that Morikawa remains “one of the five best iron players in the world” and that his ball-striking metrics have been close to peak 2021 levels, but he stressed that the putter and short game have been disastrous all season. Idone added that Morikawa cannot afford another back-to-back T57-type finish with several surging Americans (Griffin, Young, Gotterup) applying Ryder Cup pressure. Until the short game shows any life, Idone is fading Morikawa at St. Jude and the broader Playoffs despite the tempting approach numbers.

Gehman labeled Morikawa his ‘sleeper’ of the 9k tier. Two missed cuts overseas have people off him, yet before leaving the States he posted a T8 at Rocket Mortgage. Southwind rewards accuracy off the tee and precision irons—both Morikawa staples. Gehman predicts sub-10 % ownership and said if projected ownership confirms that, he will side with Morikawa over similarly priced Patrick Cantlay.

Gannon still likes Collin Morikawa despite recent shaky ball-striking, noting his return to familiar U.S. conditions after a forgettable overseas swing. Morikawa owns a T5 and T13 in two Southwind starts, carries a proven winning ceiling, and sits outside the automatic Ryder Cup spots, giving him extra motivation. At $9,100 he offers leverage off expected Hovland chalk while maintaining top-end iron play upside in a short field.

Matt Gannon said betting Collin Morikawa outright at 30-to-1 is a clear value because books almost never hang him outside the low-20s or teens. Gannon framed it as a back-against-the-wall spot where Morikawa’s elite tee-to-green game should dismantle the "cookie-cutter" greens at TPC Southwind. Getting the longest number we have seen on Morikawa all season lets bettors buy a premium ball-striker at a mid-tier price.

Dom Cintorino said he is willing to start his outright card with Collin Morikawa at 30-1 because Southwind’s predictable TPC layout plays directly into Morikawa’s strengths. Cintorino dismissed Morikawa’s poor showings in Scotland and at TPC Twin Cities as venue-driven variance, noting that the Memphis track offers wide fairways, receptive greens and the 130-to-170-yard iron shots where Morikawa grades out elite. Morikawa has previous strong results at Southwind, is currently finding fairways at a high clip, and carries additional motivation with a Ryder Cup spot still in doubt. With market buzz elsewhere, Cintorino views 30-1 as a rare buying window on a proven ball-striker in a 70-man field.

Collin Morikawa ($11,100) is another fade for Andrade, who said the two-time major winner appears "all over the place mentally" and lacks the recent consistency required to navigate Portrush’s demanding second-shot test. Andrade prefers using that salary on steadier tee-to-green options in the same range.

Hochberg dropped Morikawa to No. 6 and suggested gamers proceed with caution. While Morikawa still ranks second on Tour tee-to-green, the tout pointed to four different caddies used this season, repeated failures to close events, and increasing friction with media as red-flag distractions. Since winning the 2021 Open, his results read MC-MC-T16, reinforcing volatility on links. Hochberg implied those off-course issues are filtering into late-round execution, making the Californian overpriced in outrights and better suited to GPP fades than cash-game locks.

Ryan Pohle tabbed Collin Morikawa as his OAD pick, emphasizing the Californian’s elite fairway-finding and laser-sharp irons—exact weapons for a Portrush setup that punishes errant drives and rewards precise approach play. Although he skipped the 2019 edition here, Pohle sees no course-fit issues for a former Champion Golfer of the Year. Morikawa lands on the preferred Thursday morning side of the weather draw, another edge. Pohle downplayed last week’s missed cut in Scotland, blaming a rare short-game implosion during his first event with new caddie Billy Foster. He expects suppressed ownership because that stumble is fresh in gamers’ minds.

McLaren slotted Collin Morikawa seventh in his rankings and singled out the +1400 price for Top American at BetMGM. Morikawa already owns the claret jug from 2021, giving him the best past-champion resume among the U.S. contingent priced above him, yet he sits more than double the odds of Scottie Scheffler in the same market, creating what McLaren views as mis-priced upside.

Tom Phillips highlighted Collin Morikawa as his favorite value play at Royal Portrush, available at 33/1 outright. Phillips emphasized that Portrush punishes errant tee shots but rewards players who keep it in play and attack flags with dialed-in long irons—the exact profile that made Morikawa a two-time major champion early in his career. Citing the 2019 leaderboard that was dominated by accurate drivers and elite iron players, Phillips believes Morikawa’s ball-striking gives him as much win equity as names half his price. With bookmakers focused on Scheffler and McIlroy, Phillips sees Morikawa’s odds as a mis-pricing for bettors looking to sprinkle on a longer number with legitimate upside.

Collin Morikawa, the 2021 Open champion, leads the Westgate in ticket count after Sherman pushed his odds from 25-1 to 30-1 due to lukewarm recent results. Sherman revealed he accepted a $1,000 wager at the earlier number, adding that savvy bettors "like to support him when he’s greater than 20-1." With elite iron play that historically shines on firm links turf and proven Portrush success, Sherman considers Morikawa a compelling buy at the new 30-1 price for outright or each-way positions.

Eric Polzin labeled Collin Morikawa a tournament-only leverage play. Morikawa’s missed cut last week knocked roughly $1,000 off his DraftKings salary, yet Polzin’s tables still rank him 4th in specialist grading and 5th in overall stat fit for Royal Portrush. Polzin called last week’s result "a random" and trusts Morikawa’s elite iron play on firm links turf. The ownership dip gives GPP players access to top-five win equity at a discount, and Polzin is willing to take outright shots at 25-1 while steering clear in cash builds.

Pat Mayo said he plans to pounce on Collin Morikawa if the outright number drifts north of 40-to-1 (he saw 44s already). Mayo argued the market is asleep on Morikawa because of last week’s Scottish Open missed cut, yet reminded listeners that Morikawa famously missed the Scottish cut the year he lifted the Claret Jug. Mayo thinks the books are ignoring how much the two–time major winner has "cleaned up his short game," eliminating the up-and-downs that plagued him early in the season. With virtually no industry buzz pushing the price down, Mayo expects further drift and wants Morikawa on his betting card once the 40-plus sticker appears, viewing the bet as pure value on an elite iron player who already owns a proven links ceiling.

At 25/1, Myers called Morikawa a classic buy-low. The two-time major winner already owns a claret jug and ranks among the game’s best iron players. Myers’ issue: Morikawa is outside the top-100 in strokes-gained putting, repeatedly squandering birdie looks. Two caddie changes in one year further hint at underlying frustration. Myers believes a neutral week on the greens could make 25/1 look silly, but the flatstick risk is real.

Niall Lyons likes buying Collin Morikawa now, anticipating his odds will shorten once he tees it up with new caddie Billy Foster. Lyons called Foster a ‘Stevie Williams lite’ who will challenge Morikawa rather than rubber-stamp decisions, exactly the guidance the two-time major winner has lacked. If Morikawa shows anything at the Scottish Open, Lyons expects books to slash the number, so he recommends locking in outrights and DFS exposure early. Morikawa’s precise iron game and prior Open victory already fit Portrush; Foster’s experience on firm links could be the missing piece.

Shane Bacon kept Collin Morikawa at No. 5 and said he’s still leaning hard into the Californian for outright and placement bets. Bacon’s rationale was straightforward: Morikawa has played "great golf this year" and has "played well at Opens in the past," a nod to his comfort on fast, firm links surfaces. Bacon added that Morikawa “feels like he needs it,” implying extra motivation to add a second Claret Jug. The combination of current form and proven Open success makes Morikawa one of Bacon’s favorite bets to contend at Royal Portrush.

Mayo suggested fading Collin Morikawa’s first-round Fairways-Hit line of 8.5 despite Morikawa’s elite driving accuracy profile. The Cal-Berkeley product is also in the Thursday-AM draw when forecasted cross-winds reach their peak. With only 13 tee shots that actually count toward the prop (five holes are par-3s), Morikawa would need to split nine fairways in gusts Mayo expects to knock balls sideways. Mayo added that Renaissance Club’s wide landing areas tempt players to take aggressive driver lines; those usually help Morikawa, but he believes the combination of longer club selection and swirling wind raises the miss percentage just enough to justify an UNDER at plus money. He tacked the play onto his Underdog card, pairing it with Im’s GIR under and a Hovland over to balance exposure.

Smylie Kaufman flagged Collin Morikawa as a sneaky win target because he’s debuting legendary looper Billy Foster on the bag this week. Kaufman noted that Morikawa already owns a solid record at Renaissance Club and that Foster—fresh out of "retirement" after stints with major champions—gives Morikawa a different, more direct voice on club selection. Kaufman argued that Morikawa’s old-school, spin-manipulation approach with his irons can be tough for a new caddy, yet history shows players often pop in the first outing with a fresh bagman. Given Morikawa’s precise iron game and Foster’s proven major-championship pedigree, Kaufman believes the duo has immediate upside for an outright ticket or top-finish play at the Scottish.

Matt Brown told listeners he already fired an early Open Championship ticket on Collin Morikawa at 33-1, a rogue number only Caesars was hanging while most respected books had drifted to 22-25-1. Brown stressed this is a pure value grab—10 points of closing-line equity on a two-time major winner who just added Billy Foster to the bag and historically figures out links setups quickly (missed cut at 2021 Scottish, then won the Open a week later). He advised locking the price now before market makers tighten following this week’s Scottish results.

Reynolds grabbed Collin Morikawa at 25-1 for the Scottish Open, arguing that a fresh partnership with veteran looper Billy Foster (Sebi Ballesteros, Darren Clarke, Matt Fitzpatrick) is the perfect spark. Morikawa climbed to 8th in strokes-gained total his last start in Detroit and has already shown he can make a rapid links adjustment—he missed the cut at the 2021 Scottish Open, swapped out his blades, then won the Claret Jug seven days later. He missed the cut here on debut but rebounded to 4th last year, validating the learning curve. Foster’s encyclopedic knowledge of U.K. winds and green complexes plus Morikawa’s top-five irons (field-adjusted) convinced Reynolds the two-time major winner is undervalued in the mid-20s.

Kenny Kim named Collin Morikawa his first cash-game cornerstone, locking him into every double-up lineup at $9,600. Kim pointed to Morikawa’s elite ball-striking baseline and the added floor that comes from having veteran caddie Billy Foster on the bag for the next two weeks. Even if the new partnership is only neutral, Kenny does not see a realistic missed-cut path and thinks Morikawa’s win equity is as high as any player under $10K. Beginning builds with Morikawa allows a balanced roster that can stay entirely in the 7-8K range for the remaining four slots, avoiding volatile punt plays altogether. Kim’s takeaway: Morikawa’s combination of floor, price, and ceiling makes him an auto-click in cash formats.

Kenny Kim fired on Collin Morikawa at 30-1 (three places) because Billy Foster – long-time looper for Matt Fitzpatrick and Henrik Stenson – is on Morikawa’s bag for the next two weeks. Kim thinks Foster’s no-nonsense style will rein in Morikawa’s occasional stubborn club selections that have cost him recent Sunday chances. Morikawa’s ball-striking remains elite and he has both a claret jug and a fourth-place finish at Renaissance Club on his links resume. Unlike Rory or Xander, Kim expects Morikawa to treat this as a must-win rather than a tune-up because he has not lifted a trophy in 18 months. The combination of veteran caddie, proven course fit, and extra motivation makes 30-1 too long in Kim’s eyes.

Martin Matthews backed Collin Morikawa as his first outright because he sees multiple catalysts lining up. The two-time major winner has Billy Foster on the bag for this two-week Euro swing, and Matthews framed Foster’s experience as an immediate plus after Morikawa has shuffled through caddies all season. He cited the ‘new-caddie pop’ we have recently seen from Justin Thomas with Joe Greiner and Will Zalatoris at St. Jude. Morikawa’s iron play remains elite—he gained over five strokes on approach at both the U.S. Open and Detroit—but the putter has been ice-cold. Matthews thinks faster fescue greens combined with Morikawa’s constant putter tinkering could mask that weakness. He also likes the change of scenery; Morikawa has dealt with relentless U.S. media pressure and should enjoy looser vibes in Scotland. On a firm, second-shot track where accurate long irons rule, Matthews believes Morikawa’s profile plus Foster’s course-management chops make the Californian a live outright at 20-1 and a core DFS play.

Dom Cintorino fired on Collin Morikawa at 25-to-1, spotlighting several course-fit angles. Morikawa ranks 3rd on the PGA Tour in par-3 birdie-or-better rate—crucial at Renaissance Club, which features five par-3s on its par-70 card. He was top-5 in both ball-striking and approach at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, suggesting his irons are rounding into form. Morikawa placed T-4 here last year, and Matt Gannon added that veteran looper Billy Foster—who won the 2021 Scottish Open with Matt Fitzpatrick—has just taken Morikawa’s bag, giving him proven links expertise. With dry weather expected to add roll in the fairways and shorten the course, Cintorino believes Morikawa’s elite iron play and improved putting make him the best value in the 20-to-35-to-1 tier.

Gehman admitted he is a “glutton for punishment” with Collin Morikawa but laid out several reasons to buy. Morikawa’s ball-striking remains outrageous—10.5 SG: Tee-to-Green at Detroit and 16 at the U.S. Open—while the putter is trending the right way (-9.0 at Oakmont, ‑1.3 at Travelers, less than ‑1 at Detroit with positive strokes the final three days). At the Renaissance Club he has flipped from losing seven strokes putting in 2021 to gaining 3.0 in 2022 and 4.1 in 2024. Most intriguing, Billy Foster—one of the most respected links caddies—will be on the bag for both Scottish and Open weeks. Gehman expects Foster’s local knowledge plus Morikawa’s elite iron play to pay immediate dividends despite the $9,600 tag.

Paul Williams backed Collin Morikawa each-way at 22/1, arguing the American can steal the trophy while Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy keep half an eye on next week's Open. Williams noted Morikawa finally solved Renaissance in 2024, firing four rounds in the 60s and finishing 4th. He arrives with an even sharper long-game, ranked SG-positive in every tee-to-green category during his 8th-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Williams also highlighted a motivational boost: Morikawa hired veteran caddie Billy Foster for this two-week UK swing, a move the analyst thinks could act as a mental reset after three runner-up finishes and five other top-5s since his last win (2023 ZOZO). If the putter is merely average, Williams believes Morikawa can convert one of those near-misses into silverware.

Andy Lack said Collin Morikawa is one of the three PGA Tour players accurate enough to gain strokes off the tee at the Renaissance Club even when the setup clearly favors distance. Lack explained that calm, firm conditions turn the course into a "driver-putter" layout where most players bomb away, yet Morikawa’s elite fairway-finding lets him hang with the long hitters while avoiding the penal pop bunkers. He added that 57-60 percent of approaches come from 175 + yards, a proximity bucket where Morikawa’s long-iron prowess is already elite. Morikawa has posted strong Scottish Open results in prior years, reinforcing Lack’s comfort using him in DFS cores and as an outright bet despite average length off the tee.

Kenny Kim advised steering clear of Collin Morikawa in outright markets until the two-time major champ stops letting off-course drama rattle him. Kim said Morikawa looked “soft as baby poop” after publicly sparring with reporter Alan Shipnuck, then posted the third-worst putting round of his career on Thursday. Although Morikawa briefly clawed within a shot of the lead on Sunday, he evaporated over the final nine, continuing a recent trend of late collapses shared by fellow elite names like Fleetwood and Burns. Kim sees the combination of mental distraction, uncomfortable body language (covering his mouth while answering questions), and shaky flatstick form as red flags that outweigh his elite ball-striking for now. He is limiting Morikawa exposure to top-20 props or matchup fades until the Californian’s focus and putting metrics rebound.

Pat Fitzmaurice advised passing on Collin Morikawa at the top of the outright board despite his world No. 5 status and runner-up finish here in 2023. Fitzmaurice stressed the Rocket Mortgage routinely devolves into a putting contest—winners average nearly 1.5 strokes gained putting per round—and Morikawa sits 109th on Tour in that metric. Detroit’s generous fairways neutralize Morikawa’s elite iron play while exposing his below-average birdie conversion rate. With only four of six winners here priced shorter than 25-1 and several streaking putters in the mid-tier, Fitzmaurice says the +1200 market leader is "all name value, no edge" and prefers allocating bankroll elsewhere.

MacMillan’s bold prop is Morikawa to MISS the cut at +400. The two-time major champ hasn’t logged a top-10 since THE PLAYERS in March and limped to T42 at Travelers while actually losing strokes with his vaunted irons—an alarming signal for a player who lives and dies with approach play. With form sliding and no course history edge, MacMillan is comfortable fading the betting favorite.

Kenny Kim argued Collin Morikawa could become the leverage play of the week in DFS if early ownership projections remain below 20 percent. Morikawa hasn’t played a non-signature event all season and still ranks third in Kim’s model for easy-condition scoring and sixth in birdie-or-better gained on easy tracks. While a mediocre iron week at the Travelers has the community spooked, Kim pointed out this will be the easiest course Morikawa has seen since posting a 5th-place at Pebble Beach. With no Scheffler, McIlroy or Schauffele in the field, Morikawa is the lone “elite of the elite.” If his ownership truly stays in the mid-teens, Kim plans to jam him into both cash and GPP builds, betting on a bounce-back ball-striking performance against soft competition.

Byron Lindeque said a Collin Morikawa top-20 ticket at −135 is still under-valued. His placement model shows Morikawa finishing inside the top-20 56% of the time over the past year, while his top-10 rate sits at just 17%. Morikawa ranks second overall and first for "safety" in Lindeque’s six-category model that weighs distance on 7,200-plus-yard layouts, easy-scoring dominance, and Donald Ross history. Lindeque noted Morikawa hasn’t cracked a top-10 since publicly declaring he “doesn’t owe us anything,” so he prefers the low-variance placement rather than outright or top-10 wagers.