Jim Sannes is pairing Scottie Scheffler with Daniel Berger at 40-1 in his outright card. Although Berger has lost strokes putting in four consecutive events, Sannes pointed out that the Floridian is third in the field in driving accuracy and sits second only to Scheffler in DataGolf’s strokes-gained stabilization metric, which weights larger-sample ball-striking more heavily than volatile short game. Berger is gaining off the tee and on approach, carries above-average distance for an accuracy specialist, and owns a proven short-game around the green—skills Sannes deems critical at Muirfield’s narrow corridors and shaved run-offs. With ball-striking trending and the putter due for mean regression, Sannes thinks Berger is mispriced as a true win candidate in a 72-man field.

Berger missed the cut in his last start, but Polzin chalked it up to a putting anomaly—multiple lip-outs and edge burns captured on broadcast. Prior to that he had strung together four top-25 finishes and was gaining over 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green. His price has slid into the low-$7Ks, presenting what Polzin called a classic buy-low spot. He expects ownership to be suppressed after last week’s miscue, making Berger a strong GPP pivot with top-15 equity if the putter merely cooperates.

Pat Mayo argued that Daniel Berger is an under-the-radar buy at Muirfield Village despite last week’s missed cut. Mayo noted Berger finally looks "very close" to his pre-surgery form three years removed from back issues, citing steady ball-striking numbers in the early summer swing and a profile tailor-made for Jack’s place—fairway finding, mid-iron precision and an above-average Bentgrass putter. Mayo reminded listeners that Berger owns multiple top-10s on long, second-shot layouts (TPC Southwind, Pebble Beach, Colonial) and called his current mid-range outright price a discount relative to comparable plotters such as Corey Conners and Tommy Fleetwood. He recommended sprinkling Berger in outright markets, top-20 bets and One-and-Done contests this week.

Gehman admitted Daniel Berger’s wand has been ‘ugly’—he lost 4+ strokes putting in each of his last two starts—but thinks the upside outweighs the risk in a signature-event format where more golfers play the weekend. Berger sits 7th in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 36 rounds (1.2 per round), better than Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Si Woo Kim. His lone appearance on Muirfield’s new greens produced +6.5 strokes putting and a T5 finish (2021), giving Gehman hope that a spike week is possible. Because Berger’s blow-up rounds usually come early on the greens, Gehman likes that the Memorial’s top-50 cut offers two extra chances for regression. He plans to be overweight in DFS GPPs and sprinkle top-20 tickets, calling Berger the prototypical high-variance play that can win someone a tournament if the putter cooperates even slightly.

Stewart highlighted Daniel Berger at +1,800 in the "without Scottie" outright pool. Berger won Colonial in 2020 when the field was major-caliber immediately after the COVID shutdown, proving he is comfortable on the property. Stewart noted the renovated bent-grass greens should help Berger’s streaky putter—his lone weakness of late—while his approach play has been steady since February. With nearly half of Colonial’s approach shots coming from 125-175 yards, the exact band where Berger ranks top-15 on Tour this season, Stewart thinks the Floridian profiles as the most likely candidate to finish second behind Scheffler or steal the trophy if the favorite stumbles.

Carver endorsed Daniel Berger for a Top-10 at +240. Berger owns a win and three additional top-20s at Colonial, thrives on shorter positional layouts, and looked fully healthy with a T-13 at Valhalla where he gained 6.1 strokes on approach. That iron form coupled with elite history makes the plus-money tag attractive in placement markets that exclude Scheffler’s outright dominance.

Farnsworth said Daniel Berger is trending toward another Colonial run. Despite a T-33 last week, Berger was elite tee-to-green and merely held back by a cold putter. As a past Charles Schwab champion who regularly gains on approach and around the green, Berger profiles perfectly for a layout where small, firm greens demand scrambling skills. Farnsworth expects Berger to contend if the flat stick rebounds, making him an attractive DFS tournament play.

John Schwarb went back to Daniel Berger at +2200 after using him as a PGA Championship long-shot. Berger closed the PGA with a Sunday 68 (T33) and now returns to the site of his 2020 victory. Schwarb noted that Berger is still chasing his first win since a lengthy injury layoff but faces a weaker field this week while sitting tied as second choice behind Scheffler. The combination of trending form and proven course history makes Berger his top outright.

McDonald listed Daniel Berger as a live outright at 25-1, labeling him a clear 'Contender.' Berger won this event in 2020 and returns with elite recent ball-striking metrics—he has been, in McDonald’s words, 'striking the cover off the golf ball for months.' The only blemish has been inconsistent putting, but Colonial’s relatively tame greens give him a realistic path to spike with the flat stick. The analyst noted that multiple predictive data points (strokes-gained approach trend, top-20 rate) signal an impending victory and believes a comfort level on the layout where he already owns a trophy could be the tipping point.

Alex Hunter said Daniel Berger is the clear One-and-Done play at Colonial. Berger is finally healthy after back issues and has cashed 11 of 13 cuts this season with nine top-25 finishes, including runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open and a T-3 at the RBC Heritage. He ranks 8th in total strokes gained, 4th in par-4 scoring and 15th in strokes-gained approach, mirroring a trend in which four of the past five Charles Schwab Challenge winners finished top-8 in both categories. Berger already owns the 2020 trophy at Colonial and has three top-25s in six career starts there. Across all Texas venues he sits 9th in strokes gained per round, and over his last 50 rounds on par-70 layouts he is 8th in the field. He has gained on approach in six straight events and closed the PGA Championship with a 3-under 68, signaling form is intact. DraftKings Sportsbook lists him at +2200 to win, second shortest behind Scottie Scheffler, underscoring Hunter’s expectation that Berger contends and is an ideal season-long bullet to fire this week.

Neil Parker recommended betting Daniel Berger outright at +2500 on DraftKings. Parker noted Berger already lifted the trophy here in 2020, has made 10 straight cuts, and ranks second in this week’s field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and third on approach over that stretch. The heater includes two Top-5s and six additional Top-25s, all in tougher, top-heavy fields than the one assembled at Colonial. With the event lacking most of the TOUR’s elite names, Parker believes Berger’s elite ball-striking and past comfort on the layout make him undervalued to win.

Brady Kannon said Daniel Berger is a must-play at 23-1 for both an outright win and a top-20. Kannon’s custom model — built on SG: Approach, Greens in Regulation, Good Drives Gained, Driving Accuracy, Par-4 scoring from 350-450 yards, proximity 125-175 yards and SG: Putting on Bentgrass — ranks Berger second in the entire field behind only Scottie Scheffler. Course history checks every box: a victory at Colonial in 2020 plus two additional top-25 finishes. Berger’s form on correlated tight-fairway tracks is equally strong with a runner-up at last autumn’s RSM Classic and two third-place finishes at Harbour Town, the latest just last month. He also owns two top-15s and a top-10 at Waialae’s Sony Open. Kannon believes Berger’s precision ball-striking and elite short-iron numbers make him the most logical challenger to Scheffler on a revamped Colonial layout that again rewards accuracy.

Pat Mayo warned that Daniel Berger is shaping up as the default "second man in" on DraftKings builds, creating a potential ownership trap. Fantasy National’s early favorite-percentage data shows the field gravitating to Scheffler-Berger stacks and even Scheffler-Berger-Aaron Rai starts, which forces drafters into shaky $6K punts like Bud Cauley or Ryan Gerard. Mayo prefers fading Berger entirely and pivoting to less popular options such as Brian Harman, Maverick McNealy, or a three-deep 9K core of Si Woo Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, and Harris English. He argued that Berger’s form is still speculative after the long injury layoff and that a likely 20-plus percent roster rate does not justify the risk when the weekend wind could level the leaderboard. By skipping Berger, players can stay in the low-7K range—where names like Nicolas Echavarria and Henrik Norlander carry real top-20 equity—while gaining massive leverage on chalk constructions built around the former Ryder Cupper.

Matt Brown said Daniel Berger shot up to second in his mixed-condition model— the only player even remotely in Scottie Scheffler’s zip code this week— and there is another "huge drop-off" from Berger down to Aaron Rai. Because of that gap, Brown is splitting his normal outright unit, taking Berger at 22-1 in the standard market but putting the bulk of his exposure in the ‘winner without Scheffler’ pool at 18–19-1. Brown repeated his reasoning from earlier in the show that Scheffler’s Sunday ceiling makes outright markets volatile, whereas the derivative protects bankroll while still paying a premium if Berger finishes first among mortals.

Nick Borrman tabbed Daniel Berger as the most logical challenger to Scottie Scheffler and a must-bet in multiple markets. Borrman highlighted that Berger already owns a victory at Colonial (2020) and has added two additional top-25 finishes in three subsequent appearances, proving the course fit. Statistically, Berger has been more accurate than the field off the tee in every 2025 start and ranks top-10 in iron play on tour this season. After missing two of his first three cuts while shaking off rust, he has now made ten straight weekends with eight top-25 results. Borrman blamed a "small blip" in recent putting for last week’s T33 but expects comfort on greens he knows well. He advised grabbing 25-1 outright, 20-1 in without-Scheffler markets, and sprinkling on +260 top-10 and +120 top-20 tickets, noting the hedge opportunity if you still want to lay chalk on Scheffler.

Andy Lang said Daniel Berger is "going to win one of these" sooner rather than later and urged bettors to pounce before the market fully adjusts. Lang pointed to Berger’s elite ball-striking numbers – a +1.38 strokes-gained approach average over the last 30 days that trails only Scottie Scheffler – and noted that the former Colonial champion is second in the field in total strokes gained over the last three months. Tee-to-green play remains "fantastic," with off-the-tee gains every week since March, and Berger has turned that into eight top-25 finishes in his last 10 starts (worst finish T33 at the PGA). The lone blemish is the putter, but Lang reminded listeners that hot putting streaks come in waves and expects positive regression on familiar, slower Colonial greens. Given the consistency and proven course history, Lang recommended outright tickets as well as top-10/20 props before the number shortens further.

John Hasslebauer backed Daniel Berger at 25-1 standard (20-1 in the without-Scheffler market), calling Colonial "the perfect course" for Berger’s resurgent, well-rounded game. Berger already owns a win at Hogan Alley and currently ranks top-10 on Tour in fairways gained, proximity from 100-150 yards, and bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds—exactly what thrives on the post-restoration layout. Hasslebauer added that Berger’s short-game touch has quietly returned—he has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts—and he believes a victory is imminent given three straight top-20s against stronger fields. Expected dry, windy weather should keep the greens firm, enhancing the edge Berger’s controlled ball flight and past-champion comfort provide.

Andy Lack said Daniel Berger checks every box for Colonial and should be one of the first names clicked in outright cards and DFS cores. Berger owns a victory here and sits among the field’s top wedge players, having gained over 0.50 strokes per round on approaches inside 200 yards this season. Colonial’s less-than-driver design magnifies that strength and suppresses his biggest weakness—elite length. Lack added that last week’s middling finish at Quail Hollow is a throw-away data point because Quail demands long-iron volume and raw power, whereas Colonial rewards Berger’s short-iron distance control and fairway-finding. With the course playing firm again and winning score likely single-digits under par, Lack expects Berger’s precise flighted wedges and proven Texas comfort to make him a legitimate win threat and a chalky yet worthwhile click at anything 18-1 or longer.

Michael Breed tabbed Daniel Berger as his favorite true long-shot because Berger’s "complete game" thrives when par is a great score. Breed highlighted that Quail Hollow will likely start soft, then bake out, turning the week into a survival test. Berger’s above-average driving accuracy, solid iron play, and tidy short game give him the tools to ride out those conditions and stay on the right side of par. With sportsbooks hanging triple-digit outright numbers, Breed is adding Berger to his betting card, sprinkling top-20 props, and mixing him into DFS builds as a low-roster leverage play.

Sannes admitted he sprinkled Daniel Berger outright at 100-to-1 purely as a price enforcement play. Although he doubts Berger’s limited length produces a true ceiling week, Sannes argued the market should have him shorter than triple digits given his ranking of 17th in DataGolf’s pro ranks, across-the-board strokes-gained profile, and solid Quail Hollow history. He views it as a small-stake, high-payout add to an outright card otherwise focused on Xander Schauffele and bigger hitters, reasoning that Berger’s baseline form makes 100-1 mispriced relative to the rest of the mid-tier.

Jim Sannes echoed the Berger love, calling the +260 top-20 ‘the second-best non-outright on the board.’ Berger is gaining in all four strokes-gained categories despite average length, even picking up off-the-tee thanks to accuracy—important on Quail Hollow’s 28-yard fairways. He has gained at least one stroke on approach in three straight events, one of which was the Masters, and has turned those gains into three consecutive top-25 finishes. Because superior carry distance remains questionable, Sannes sees the top-20 as the sweet spot, giving bettors exposure to a player whose floor is higher than the market implies.

Brandon Gdula targeted Daniel Berger for a top-20 at +260, arguing the number underrates his all-around form. Berger sits 17th in DataGolf’s pro rankings and 12th in total strokes gained over the last 50 rounds despite playing only two majors since 2022 due to injury—T21 at both the 2025 Masters and 2024 U.S. Open. He owns four made cuts in five Quail Hollow starts with consistently positive iron splits. While Gdula admitted Berger’s lack of elite distance caps a true win bid, his top-25 irons and wedges over the past 50 rounds plus solid scrambling make a top-20 the optimal market exposure in a soggy, ball-striking-heavy setup.

Tony Sartori urged bettors to sprinkle Daniel Berger at +10000 to win the PGA Championship, pointing to a nine-event tear in which Berger has not only made every cut but gained total strokes each week. During that stretch he has finished T30 or better every time, flashed upside with a runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open and a T3 at the Signature-level RBC Heritage, and gained strokes putting, around the green, on approach, and off the tee in at least seven of those nine starts. Sartori emphasized Berger’s elite driving accuracy—vital at Quail Hollow’s hallway-narrow fairways and gnarly rough—and argued that the well-rounded form proves he can hang with the sport’s elite in a major. All of that makes Berger a viable longshot worth backing at triple-digit odds.

Brandon Gdula called Daniel Berger one of his favorite value plays at an $8,900 salary. Since returning from injury Berger has posted nine consecutive top-30 finishes—including three podiums—while gaining 1.87 true strokes per round. Gdula highlighted Berger’s steady Quail Hollow résumé (five career starts, four made cuts, two top-25s) and his eight top-25s in 27 majors as proof he handles big-event pressure. The combination of elite recent form, reliable iron play, and a historically strong short game lets DFS players afford a Rory/Bryson core without sacrificing cut-making equity. Gdula is also eyeing Berger for top-20 bets around +240, noting that his balanced skill-set plays up at a 7,600-yard par-71 where missing greens is inevitable.

In Tier 3, Polzin is "probably just going Daniel Berger." Berger ranks top-10 in both key-stat fit and recent-form metrics on the 9-to-5 cheat-sheet. Since returning from injury he has rattled off T15 at API, T20 at THE PLAYERS, T30 at Valero, T21 at Augusta, solo 3rd at RBC Heritage and 11th last week. Although he lacks recent Quail Hollow reps, Polzin trusts the current trajectory and sees a realistic path to a top-10, making Berger the preferred blend of ceiling and stability over riskier options like Patrick Reed or Sungjae Im.

Polzin urged listeners to grab Daniel Berger at 110-1 on FanDuel before the number corrects, calling it a mis-tag more appropriate for a journeyman than a former top-20 player flashing peak form. Since returning from injury, Berger owns a 3rd at RBC Heritage and an 11th last week, ranking 8th in both recent-form and overall stat fit in Polzin’s 9to5 model. He sits top-10 in strokes-gained approach and total driving over the past 12 rounds, metrics that historically separate contenders at a lengthened Quail Hollow. The only blemish is zero course reps in the last four years, but Polzin is willing to overlook that given Berger’s current ball-striking heater. He recommends adding Berger as a last man in for large-field DFS tournaments and tacking him onto outright cards that fade the super-short favorites.

Jeff Erickson tabbed Daniel Berger as his favorite sub-$8K sleeper, citing a third-place finish at the RBC Heritage since returning from injury and steady ball-striking metrics reminiscent of his pre-injury peak. At $7,900, Berger offers top-10 ceiling without forcing managers into the $6K scrub range, making him a strong one-and-done or DFS pivot away from more popular names in the same salary band.

Matt Gannon said Daniel Berger is the lone player he trusts at the top of the $7K range, asserting that Berger’s current ball-striking metrics "are not that far off" Justin Thomas’s despite a $1,400 salary gap. Gannon observed that Berger has been "absolutely striping the ball" lately and is inching back toward the Ryder-Cup-level form he showed before injuries. Because the field will gravitate to chalky names in the 8K tier, Gannon plans to "put a lot of eggs" in Berger’s basket as a mid-salary anchor with genuine top-10 equity if the putter shows up.

Rich Gehman spotlighted Daniel Berger as the best value in the $7,000 DraftKings tier. Berger shook off a disastrous opening-round putter (-3.5 SG Putting on Thursday) to finish T11 at Philadelphia Cricket Club, gaining a stroke or more on approach in all four rounds and keeping every tee shot in play. Since January 1st, 2025 he is +1.3 total strokes per round—better than Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry and Patrick Cantlay over the same span—yet remains priced nearly $2K cheaper. Gehman called Quail Hollow a 'big-ballpark where fairway finders thrive' and likes Berger’s steady ball flight over bomb-and-gouge types in bad weather. He recommends overweight DFS exposure and top-20 placement bets.

Dom Cintorino hammered Daniel Berger at roughly +350 for a top-20 finish, calling it a “for-sure, mortgage play.” Dom compared Berger’s recent ball-striking numbers to Justin Thomas and found them virtually identical across strokes-gained off-the-tee and approach, a signal Berger’s pre-injury peak form is returning. He noted Berger is gaining over 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green across his last three starts, the same profile that earned him Ryder Cup honors and multiple PGA TOUR wins. Cintorino thinks the books will slash Berger’s positional odds once the broader betting market notices, so he wants to lock in the 3.5-to-1 price before it shortens. With Quail Hollow demanding elite long-iron play and rewarding those who flight their driver accurately, he believes Berger’s trending ball-striking guarantees four steady rounds and an inside-track to the first two pages of the leaderboard.

Joe Idone flagged Daniel Berger as a clear mis-price: 35-to-1 at the Truest warm-up yet 100-to-1 for the PGA Championship. Since returning to full health Berger owns eight straight top-30 finishes, six of them inside the top-20, and a solo 3rd at Harbour Town. Idone values Berger’s gutsy scrambling and streaky hot putter, traits he thinks translate when Quail Hollow’s rough forces creative shot-making. With Ryder Cup motivation and rock-solid form, Idone believes Berger belongs alongside the 40-to-60-1 tier, not buried with longshots. He is locking in the triple-digit outright and will monitor placement props for additional exposure.

Landon Silinsky said Daniel Berger is his favorite outright bet at the Truist Championship at +4000. Silinsky pointed out that Berger has finished T25 or better in 8 of 11 starts this season, highlighted by a pair of top-three showings at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage. Over his last 24 measured rounds (since the Genesis Invitational), Berger ranks 6th in the field in Total Strokes Gained and 23rd or better in Ball-Striking, Tee-to-Green, and Putting. He gained 7.2 strokes ball-striking at Harbour Town in his most recent start, suggesting the back injury that sidelined him for 18 months is no longer an issue. Philadelphia Cricket Club is a 7,119-yard par 70 that demands sharp wedge play and Bentgrass putting, both of which suit Berger; he ranks 24th on Tour (9th in this field) in proximity from 75-125 yards, better than Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Viktor Hovland. With no cut and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler skipping the event, Silinsky believes Berger’s all-around form and trending ball-striking make him undervalued in this Signature Event.

The SportsLine model recommends grabbing Daniel Berger at 40-1 before the number shortens. Berger surged to a solo 3rd at the RBC Heritage thanks to a Sunday 65 and carried momentum from a closing-round 69 at the Masters that earned him T-21. Statistically he profiles perfectly for the Truist test, ranking 9th in total strokes gained, 7th in SG: tee-to-green, 12th in total driving, and 8th in driving accuracy. Currently 16th in the FedEx Cup, Berger has demonstrated an ability to ‘solve’ courses over four days—his final-round scoring average ranks among the field’s best—which the model views as key if he’s on the first-page of the leaderboard come Sunday. At an implied win probability of just 2.4%, McClure’s simulations show meaningful edge relative to the 40-1 market price.

Brian Kirschner wagered Daniel Berger Top-20 at +130 after noting Berger has finished inside the top 20 in five of his last eight PGA Tour starts. Kirschner believes another big finish at an elevated event would bolster Berger’s Ryder Cup candidacy and likes his steady tee-to-green play to navigate Wissahickon.

Matt Brown added Daniel Berger at 40-to-1, explaining that the now-healthy Floridian is grading green across every metric he values for Philadelphia Cricket Club. In Brown’s 24-round model Berger is fourth in the key 50-to-100-yard wedge bucket, 12th Around-the-Green, and top-25 in five of six ball-striking categories. Sand saves (58th of 72) are the lone blemish, but Brown expects elite players to avoid those bunkers rather than escape them. The usual knock—lack of raw distance—matters less on a course where nine of twelve par-4s are under 450 yards and drivers can stay in the bag. Berger has gained strokes Tee-to-Green in eight of his last nine starts, and Brown believes that baseline plus a wedge-heavy setup creates real win equity the market is missing. He paired the outright with a top-10 placement to protect the ticket.

Patrick McDonald included Daniel Berger on his short list of players who can actually win at Philly Cricket Club, highlighting Berger’s meteoric world-ranking climb from 627th after last year’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson to 27th today. McDonald framed that 600-spot jump as proof that Berger’s ball-striking and health have returned to pre-injury levels. With confidence clearly restored and the betting market still pricing him like a fringe contender, McDonald views Berger as a value outright and top-10 bet in a field where most players have zero course history.

Farnsworth plans to manually boost Daniel Berger’s projection by roughly 10%, arguing that the $8,600 salary does not reflect Berger’s surge since returning from injury. Over the last three months Berger’s strokes-gained numbers are "as good as anyone in the field," especially on approach and with the putter. Long-term stats still drag his model rating, but Farnsworth trusts the current form and expects Berger to contend in a setup that reduces the need for elite driving distance.

Jim Sannes grabbed Daniel Berger at +330 for a Top-10, citing the Floridian’s across-the-board strength and the smaller 72-man field. Berger sits sixth in Sannes’ strokes-gained stabilization model—built to identify sustainable form—because he gains in all four categories. Since January 1 he owns two Top-5s (including third at RBC Heritage) and has finished 30th or better in every start except one missed cut, illustrating both ceiling and floor. Berger also ranks 13th in Sannes’ ceiling metric, ahead of bigger names like Tommy Fleetwood, showing he still has spike-week potential even if he is perceived as a ‘steady’ player. With several elites carrying question marks and Philadelphia Cricket Club presenting an unfamiliar test, Sannes prefers locking in Berger’s versatility at a juicy Top-10 price rather than chasing a long-shot outright.

McDonald argued Daniel Berger is an actionable long-shot to win after an eye-popping climb from 627th to 27th in the OWGR over the past year. He framed the jump—book-ended by starts at last season’s CJ Cup and Byron Nelson—as proof Berger has fully regained form and confidence. That meteoric rise, coupled with Berger’s proven ability to spike with his irons, convinced McDonald the 30-year-old can take advantage of the unfamiliar Philly Cricket routing and contend for the title.

For his best bet, McClure went back to the well with Daniel Berger Top-20 at +130, a line he made −110. Over the last 10 weeks Berger ranks 5th in total strokes gained among this field, consistently gaining across every strokes-gained category except pure driving distance. On a 7,100-yard track where length is helpful but not mandatory, McClure trusts Berger’s all-around form to cash another top-20 ticket.

David Barnett flagged Daniel Berger as his favorite mid-tier flyer at 40-1. Since returning from injury Berger is hitting 70 percent of fairways while averaging 173 mph ball speed, numbers Barnett said let him ignore the carry-distance flag in BTN’s bunker-carry bucket because “he’ll just split the short grass.” Berger has gained strokes both on approach and around the green in four straight events and held the 36-hole lead in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at Houston. The putter is volatile, but Barnett trusts Berger’s POA history and believes soft, receptive greens reduce three-putt risk. With two Major-quality victories already on his resume (Pebble and Colonial), Barnett sees Berger’s current form mirroring those runs and is betting the outright plus a first-round-leader ticket.

Mike McClure advised backing Daniel Berger for a top-10 (ties paid) at +280 after the model slotted him ninth in its median finish distribution. Berger shook off two early missed cuts and has not finished worse than T30 in eight consecutive starts, a run that includes three T3 or better showings and a T3 at the RBC Heritage his last time out. Over that stretch he is averaging 1.9 strokes gained tee-to-green per round and has gained strokes putting in six straight tournaments. With Quail Hollow off the schedule, McClure expects the less penal Philadelphia venue to reward Berger’s elite wedge game and consistent flatstick, making the +280 payout an actionable edge.

Rick Gehman labeled Daniel Berger the most intriguing $8K option. Over the last 36 rounds Berger ranks third in total strokes-gained (1.32) behind only Rory and Justin Thomas, matching Russell Henley while playing two additional events. He has missed just one cut—Torrey Pines—since the American Express and flashed ceiling weeks of +11.5 SG tee-to-green at Phoenix and +8.7 at Harbour Town. Gehman loves Berger’s across-the-board green cells on the Holy Grail profile, calling him an ideal all-around play on an unknown course where balanced skill sets provide the safest path to high DFS returns.

Mike McClure’s simulations identified Daniel Berger as a high-ceiling dart at 40-1 for Philadelphia. Berger rode a Sunday 65 to a T-3 at the RBC Heritage after closing the Masters with a 69 en route to T-21, signaling upward trajectory. Statistically he ranks 9th in total strokes gained, 7th in strokes gained: tee-to-green, 12th in total driving, and 8th in driving accuracy while holding 16th place in the FedEx Cup. McClure noted Berger’s knack for figuring out a course as the week progresses, making him a viable outright and top-5 play at generous odds in a field missing several top names.

Iain MacMillan recommended jumping on Daniel Berger at +4000 to win the Truist Championship. Berger is sixth in the field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last three months and is coming off a T3 at the RBC Heritage, his second top-three of 2025. MacMillan emphasized Berger’s elite long-iron game—fifth on Tour in proximity from 200-225 yards—arguing that approach distance will be critical at Philadelphia Cricket Club’s lengthy par-4s. With his tee-to-green consistency and recent results, MacMillan believes 40-1 undervalues Berger’s win equity this week.

Brady Kannon believes Daniel Berger offers solid betting value at the RBC Heritage at 45-1 odds due to his suitability for the Harbour Town course setup. Berger holds notable results at comparable courses, including a win at Colonial in 2020, third place previously at the RBC Heritage, and second-place finishing at the RSM Classic. His recent form is solid, coming off a 21st-place finish at the Masters and a 20th at the Players Championship. Berger ranks ninth in the field on Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, third in Fairways Gained, 13th in Greens in Regulation Gained, and 18th in Scrambling over the past 36 rounds, aligning well with Harbour Town's precision-oriented style. Kannon has bet Berger to win outright and to finish inside the top-20.

Wes Reynolds endorsed Daniel Berger as an outright bet at long odds of 50-to-1 for RBC Heritage. Berger delivered consistent recent form highlighted by ranking sixth in greens-in-regulation at Augusta (T21 finish). Reynolds emphasized Berger’s historical success at similar technical, less-than-driver courses such as his wins at TPC Southwind, Pebble Beach and Colonial. Berger's past Harbour Town results, including a third-place finish in 2020, further highlight his potential undervaluation and suitability, solidifying him as a strong bet in this event.

Kelley Bydlon enthusiastically supports Daniel Berger as both an outright and top-20 bet at RBC Heritage, highlighting Berger’s strong recent form and excellent suitability for the Harbour Town layout. Berger’s recent consistent finishes include a T21 at Masters, top 20 at Players, and T15 at Arnold Palmer Invitational. Harbour Town's setup benefits Berger, who ranks highly across key metrics including approach, par-5 scoring, driving accuracy, good drives and short game categories. Bydlon additionally pointed to Berger's past Harbour Town results—finishing T-3rd in 2020, T-13th in 2021, and T-21st in 2022—as further positive indicators supporting this wager.

Lack highlighted Daniel Berger as a highly appealing bet at 50-1 odds due to his remarkably steady performances this season, noting Berger just captured his eighth top-30 finish in ten events with a respectable 21st place at Augusta. Harbour Town suits Berger even better, emphasizing his accuracy off the tee and stellar short-to-middle iron precision that perfectly matches this well-known Pete Dye design. Lack sees Berger as primed for a contending finish and potential victory here.

Hennessey labeled Daniel Berger as a player poised to fully regain championship-level form at Harbour Town, noting Berger has gained strokes tee-to-green in every event since last fall, including Augusta most recently. His pinpoint accuracy off the tee combined with precision iron play perfectly aligns with Harbour Town’s demands. Berger previously nearly won at Harbour Town during the COVID year before triumphing the following week at Colonial, highlighting his ability to peak on similar layouts.

Brandon Gdula recommended betting Daniel Berger at +150 odds for a top-20 finish this week, emphasizing Berger's exceptional consistency and balanced performance across all strokes gained categories. Berger comes off a T21 at the Masters, extending his impressive streak to seven straight top-30 finishes and seven straight events gaining strokes approach. Gdula underscored Berger's remarkable consistency, having gained strokes in 27 out of the last 28 opportunities across all four strokes-gained categories collectively. Given Harbour Town's requirement for balanced performance, Berger's well-rounded form makes him a low-risk, high-confidence play for a solid finishing position bet.