Brian Kirschner played Hideki Matsuyama +2200 for first-round leader. Matsuyama opened last week 69-64 while ‘hitting the ball great’ before a Saturday 76 derailed his BMW chances. Kirschner thinks that stretch proved the iron play is locked in and expects Matsuyama to fire a low number in round one at East Lake.

Eric Polzin called Hideki Matsuyama "the play" in the $9K salary tier. Matsuyama sits top-five in both recent-form and stat-fit metrics and enters East Lake on a streak of nine consecutive quality finishes. Polzin likes Hideki’s balanced tee-to-green profile for the course and views him as a leverage alternative to higher-owned chalk. He recommended deploying Matsuyama in single-entry builds and as an outright or each-way target for bettors searching beyond Scheffler and McIlroy.

Rick Gehman said Hideki Matsuyama is a high-upside DFS target at East Lake. Matsuyama gained 1.5 strokes in Round 1 and 5.5 in Round 2 last week, then crashed by losing 5 strokes in Round 3 and another 2 in the final round. Gehman argued the erratic finish masks the fact that Matsuyama ‘might have made more birdies than anybody’ in the field, showcasing the kind of firepower that pays off in DraftKings’ birdie-bonus scoring. Course history at the TOUR Championship is a ‘mixed bag’—some top finishes, some poor—but Gehman is willing to chase the ceiling because Hideki’s combination of elite iron play and streaky putting can pop for a top-5 any given week.

Kenny Kim highlighted Hideki Matsuyama as a sneaky tournament play in the $7K tier. Matsuyama has been "decent hitting fairways," owns a short game that can rescue errant drives, and is "really good on long par threes and long par fours." Kim likes the $2,000 discount off Justin Thomas and expects the PGA DFS crowd to shy away because of recent off-the-tee concerns, creating a clear ownership discount. He views Decky as the perfect pivot for GPP players who want upside without eating chalk.

Brian Giuffra called Hideki Matsuyama a value long-shot at +5000, explaining that "whatever the hell was going on" mid-season has been fixed. Matsuyama has gained more than three strokes per round on approach across his last two events and turned the putter from liability into positive territory. Giuffra argued Matsuyama is capable of "going low all four rounds," a trait that’s critical in a small field where sustained scoring is mandatory to contend on Sunday.

Patrick McDonald listed Hideki Matsuyama as a 45-1 “contender” play, highlighting steady momentum despite the absence of a top-10 finish since his Sentry win in January. Matsuyama has reeled off four straight top-20 results, most recently a T17 at the St. Jude Championship, driven by an iron game that has rebounded to early-season form. McDonald noted the putter—often Matsuyama’s liability—has shown life over that stretch, and the wide fairways at Caves Valley should lessen the stress Matsuyama typically faces with driver in hand. With approach play surging and fewer big-miss penalties off the tee, McDonald views Matsuyama as undervalued at 45-1 for outright and top-5 markets.

Patrick McDonald called Hideki Matsuyama a sneaky outright and DFS target after four straight top-20 finishes. Although Matsuyama hasn’t cracked a top-10 since his season-opening win, McDonald argued that the steady ball-striking floor he’s showing in playoff-style, no-cut events makes him an overlooked option for placement markets and lineup correlation.

Barnett said Hideki Matsuyama’s outright price sliding from 50-1 to 40-1 still leaves meat on the bone. He called the Japanese star’s recent approach numbers ‘vintage Hideki’— gaining 5+ strokes with the irons at both the Scottish and FedEx St. Jude— while noting the short game has quietly gained strokes in six of seven starts. The only leak is driver accuracy, but Barnett is willing to live with a few missed fairways at Wilmington where rough is modest and Hideki’s historically elite scrambling (7th on TOUR) can bail him out. Barnett concluded Matsuyama’s long-term win rate (8 PGA victories) is far higher than most names in the 40-1 range, making him a must-add to the outright card.

Rick Gehman advised buying Hideki Matsuyama at $8,600. Matsuyama gained 5.5 strokes on approach at Southwind—one of the week’s top iron numbers—and posted another top-20. Gehman noted Hideki has won low-scoring shootouts before (32-under at Kapalua) and has quietly beaten the field by 3–8 strokes in recent starts. With Caves Valley shaping up as another birdie fest and far less punitive off the tee, Gehman thinks Matsuyama’s elite irons are about to pop, making him a strong mid-range DFS and outright candidate.

Byron Lindeque advised staying completely off Hideki Matsuyama at an $8,800 salary. Matsuyama has not recorded a single top-10 finish since his January victory at the Sentry, leaving that win as his only top-10 of the entire season. Byron dismissed the idea of leaning on past course history, saying the current form is ‘just not working out.’ In his view there are better upside plays in the same price band and gamer interest remains too high relative to Hideki’s actual performance ceiling.

Dom Cintorino took Hideki Matsuyama at –105 for a top-20, saying he is not ready to fire on an outright but views essentially even money on a player of Hideki’s caliber as "pretty good value" in a 50-man event. Cintorino expects Matsuyama’s well-rounded tee-to-green game to play nicely at the BMW and believes the placement bet limits downside while capturing his high floor.

Gannon labeled Hideki Matsuyama a plus-EV click at 40-1 in a 50-player field even while admitting the driver has been a "mess." Matsuyama still rates out well in his model because his long-iron play remains elite and he converts fairways into birdies at a high clip. Gannon joked that if Hideki could tee off from Brian Campbell’s straight but short drives he might win the tournament, underscoring how much the driver is the only question. Given his ability to reach 25-under when the ball is in play and the generous price, Gannon will stomach the volatility and bet the ceiling.

Tom Jacobs took 45/1 on Hideki Matsuyama in Bet365’s three-place market, betting that the Japanese star’s trademark course repetition shows up again at TPC Southwind. Matsuyama opened 2025 with a record-setting −35 at The Sentry but has lacked top-10s since; however, his last five starts feature elite irons (SG Approach ranks of 6th, 23rd, 1st, 38th, 5th) and improving tee-to-green numbers while the driver finally cooperated at the Open. The world No. 12 already owns a win here (2024), a playoff loss in 2021, and a 16th in 2023 where he closed 65. Jacobs noted Hideki’s propensity to double-up victories at comfortable venues (e.g., Phoenix) and believes the shorter Southwind layout plus positive Sony Open history fit the pattern. If he starts faster, Jacobs sees a realistic path to a 12th PGA Tour title and a profitable top-3 ticket.

Polzin recommended locking Hideki Matsuyama into fair-and-balanced lineups, citing the best course-history rating in the field and a clear uptick in ball-striking over the past two months. Matsuyama’s price sits in his preferred shoulder-shrug range—if he lands there when finishing a build, he clicks submit. After an early-season win and subsequent struggles, Hideki has stabilized and now profiles as a safe yet high-ceiling option in no-cut playoff DFS contests.

Geoff Clark bet Hideki Matsuyama at +3500 to win the St. Jude, calling the number "disrespectful" for the defending champion. Matsuyama led last year by five after 54 holes, double-bogeyed 15 on Sunday, then birdied the final two holes to capture the title despite losing 3.3 strokes around the green, normally his greatest strength. Clark noted Hideki has gained strokes putting in four straight visits to TPC Southwind and in eight of his last nine starts overall. Although Matsuyama has struggled to find fairways this summer, he ranked ninth in driving accuracy during a T19 finish at last week’s Wyndham after an early out-of-bounds tee ball led to a triple. He sits 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds, per Betsperts Golf. Clark believes that if Matsuyama keeps the ball in the short grass and continues his recent iron and putting form, he can pull off a rare back-to-back victory in Memphis at attractive odds.

Pat Fitzmaurice put Hideki Matsuyama on his do-not-bet list despite Hideki’s 2024 win and 2021 runner-up at Southwind. Pat pointed to a "lackluster season" overall and only modest recent finishes (13th/16th/19th) as evidence the ceiling isn’t there. Against a playoff-strength field, Pat does not believe Matsuyama is ready to close and advised listeners to pass on outright tickets.

Pat Mayo said he is fading Hideki Matsuyama on DraftKings because the former champion "can't drive the ball" right now. Mayo pointed out that Matsuyama has been hemorrhaging strokes off-the-tee for roughly three months, which forces him to play defensively and kills his ability to contend at TPC Southwind. In Mayo's view the poor driving neutralizes Hideki’s traditional upside and makes him a salary trap in a week where there are plenty of other reliable ball-strikers to pay for.

Pat Mayo advised steering clear of Hideki Matsuyama despite the tempting course history that includes last year’s win. Mayo said Matsuyama’s driver has been "so bad over the past three months" that it’s capping his ability to get into contention. Even though the upside is still there, the recent tee-ball collapse makes him a risky spend for DFS and an avoid in outright markets this week.

Brandon Gdula sees Hideki Matsuyama as one of the week’s best salary/odds arbitrage plays. The 2021 Southwind winner is gaining at least +1.0 stroke per round on approach in three of his last five starts, yet his DFS price lags behind his outright odds. Gdula admitted the driver remains shaky, but he is discounting tee-ball value at this course and believes Matsuyama’s win equity is “pretty good” for the mid-$9K tag.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Hideki Matsuyama as the premier course-history play at TPC Southwind. Matsuyama has never finished worse than T20 here in the past four years and won the event last season on the strength of top-six approach numbers and a spike week with the flat stick. Gdula noted Southwind’s 4,500-sq-ft greens are the third-smallest on Tour, pushing iron play to the forefront; six of the last nine champions ranked top-six in approach for the week. Matsuyama sits in the 60th percentile for putts inside 15 feet this season, which Gdula called “good enough when the irons are that sharp.” The senior editor will use Hideki as a core DFS anchor and a viable top-10 ticket, emphasizing that Southwind de-emphasizes scrambling – Matsuyama’s lone weak category.

Shane Bacon threw Hideki Matsuyama into his can’t-win pile, bluntly stating "he’s playing terrible." Bacon advised bettors that Matsuyama has "no chance" at TPC Southwind and might as well withdraw, steering outright money elsewhere.

Barnett pushed Hideki Matsuyama at 40-to-1, noting the Japanese star is the defending champion and that his iron play "is back" after flashing vintage form at The Open. In a strong but limited-field playoff event where elite approach play usually wins, Barnett considers those odds too long for a player with recent ball-striking momentum and proven success on the track.

Casey Johnston pegged Hideki Matsuyama as a value outright at +3200, leaning on the narrative of a comfortable title defense. Matsuyama has fired sub-70 scores in 10 of his last 13 rounds and, according to Johnston, ‘found something’ with his swing. Familiarity with the layout where he lifted the trophy last year could propel him back into the winner’s circle.

Glasscott selected Hideki Matsuyama at +150 to win the Top Asian market. Matsuyama is the defending champion, owns a playoff loss here from 2021, and has made seven consecutive cuts coming into Memphis. His last three starts produced T13, T16 and T19 paydays, a steadiness Glasscott trusts over the inconsistent Si Woo Kim (+300), struggling Sungjae Im (+320) and recently-MC’d Kevin Yu (+360).

Discussing a 41-to-1 number, Joe Idone argued Hideki Matsuyama is mis-priced alongside non-winners like Aaron Rai and Corey Conners. Matsuyama enters with a win, a runner-up, and four straight top-20 finishes while his approach numbers are "really spiking"—ideal for a track historically won by elite iron players. Idone reminded listeners Matsuyama has a first and second at Southwind and contended that the Japanese star’s high-end proximity and comfort on water-heavy courses make him a superior outright ticket to similarly priced ball-strikers who struggle to close.

Byron Lindeque hammered Hideki Matsuyama at 40-1 outright on DraftKings, planning to add a ‘without Scottie’ market later in the week. Lindeque loves the Sedgefield-to-Southwind course crossover and noted Hideki was five over through 11 holes last week yet still made the cut—after playing two balls out-of-bounds—because his irons were that good. Matsuyama gained heavily on approach, rolled the rock on Bermuda, and historically spikes with the putter in Memphis. Byron dismissed the driver woes as “whatever,” trusting Hideki’s elite tee-to-green profile and playoff pedigree to surface on a second-shot layout.

Bamford tipped Matsuyama at 30/1, arguing the defending champion is again primed for a playoff statement. Since winning the 2024 Genesis Invitational, last year’s St. Jude and the 2025 Sentry, Hideki has shown he saves his best for marquee events and Bermuda greens. His Southwind résumé is impeccable—20th (2020), 2nd (2021), 16th (2023) and 1st (2024). Over the past eight weeks he rates 4th in SG Approach, 5th Tee-to-Green, 3rd Ball Striking, 3rd SG Total and sits inside the top-20 with the putter, quelling his traditional weakness. Three of his last four PGA Tour victories have come on Bermuda, and Champion Bermuda here fits that script. With the FedEx Cup reset and Ryder Cup whispers circulating, Bamford expects Matsuyama’s elite iron game and reliable scrambling (won last year while ranking 1st in putting) to translate into another deep Sunday run.

Gdula grabbed Hideki Matsuyama at 33-to-1, noting he owns the third-highest statistical ceiling in the field over his last 50 rounds. Matsuyama sits 8th tee-to-green during that window, and while long remembered as a shaky putter he has quietly climbed to the 60th percentile from inside 15 feet this season. The recent event log looks vintage Hideki—strong iron gains and a T16 at The Open. Gdula expects those irons to pop again at Sedgefield, and he is willing to dismiss Matsuyama’s uninspiring course history because the current ball-striking profile is back to early-career levels. If the improved flat stick holds, Gdula believes Hideki can easily lead the field in SG:T2G and cash a 33-to-1 outright.

Brian Kirschner said Hideki Matsuyama is mispriced at +3300 and worth an outright ticket. Matsuyama has stacked six PGA Tour victories, including the 2021 Masters, since the start of 2021 and is coming in off a T16 at the Open Championship and a T13 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Kirschner pointed to elite recent iron play and noted that Matsuyama has historically excelled on tighter, accuracy-centric layouts similar to Sedgefield. Given his proven closing ability when in contention, Kirschner believes the number is simply too long.

Rick Gehman labeled Hideki Matsuyama a classic high-risk, high-reward DFS play at $9,800. Fairway-through-green, the profile is excellent—Hideki has gained strokes on approach in four straight starts and has actually picked up strokes putting in seven of his last eight worldwide. Around-the-green game is equally sturdy (positive in six of the past nine). The lone landmine is the big stick: he has driven it poorly for months and has dropped strokes off the tee in three consecutive tournaments. Gehman noted Sedgefield does not force driver, so Matsuyama could dial it back to keep the ball in play. If the tee ball cooperates he looks like one of the most complete players in the $9K range, but a continued spray pattern could lead to a missed cut. DFS managers should treat him as a ceiling play in tournaments rather than a cash-game anchor.

Matt Gannon wants to start his outright card with Hideki Matsuyama at 35-1, arguing that the former Masters champ is "doing nothing but stripe" right now. Matsuyama has gained strokes with his irons in three consecutive events—his best approach run of the season—and, unusually, has also gained putting in all three. Gannon noted Matsuyama owns a past T3 at Sedgefield and historically thrives on fast, slopey Bermuda surfaces similar to what the Wyndham presents. With a soft field headlined by Matt Fitzpatrick, Gannon believes Hideki’s ceiling win-rate (remember the 35-under week to open 2025 at Kapalua) towers over the board, making him a value anchor even though the putter can disappear at times.

Hideki Matsuyama is the seventh and final golfer to survive Hannable’s three-step cut—top-33 Data Golf ranking, prior Open top-10, and a 2025 win already in the bag. Hannable explained that the overlap of form, course history, and winning pedigree has predicted eight of the last 10 Open champions, making Matsuyama a statistically sound outright dart. With Royal Portrush rewarding precise iron play and patience, Hannable believes Matsuyama’s profile fits the mold of recent champions and justifies a bet within this elite seven-man cluster.

Noonan pounced on Hideki Matsuyama at 85-1 (triple digits available at one shop) arguing the number ignores his upside in majors. He noted Royal Troon’s tight fairways and small, elevated greens allow Matsuyama to club down off the tee, minimising his occasional driver issues while leaning on the world-class approach game that has gained strokes in six of his last seven starts. Given Hideki’s proven short-game creativity and track record of popping on tough layouts, Noonan felt any price north of 70-1 was a must-bet.

Mike McClure said Hideki Matsuyama is mis-priced at +7500 and is worth an outright sprinkle now. In his model, removing Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy from the field would drop Matsuyama’s number to roughly 45-1, illustrating how much of the current price is driven by the two heavy favorites. McClure noted that Matsuyama still owns an elite tee-to-green ceiling—exactly the skill set that can ‘absolutely turn it on’ at Royal Portrush—and that nothing in his underlying ball-striking profile justifies a 75-1 tag. He expects books to tighten the number once sharper money arrives, so he is locking in exposure early rather than waiting for week-of adjust­ments.

Dom Cintorino backed Hideki Matsuyama at 70-1, arguing Portrush’s demand for precision over power neutralizes the Japanese star’s current driver issues. Cintorino noted Matsuyama can safely club down off the tee, pepper fairways and lean on the iron play that ranked first in strokes-gained approach at both the U.S. Open and Rocket Mortgage. Those same events showed he is still flushing it despite losing strokes off the tee. With Matsuyama gaining nearly eight strokes on approach in Detroit and historically thriving in difficult majors, Cintorino believes the number is too long for a player who could easily contend if he simply keeps the ball in play.

Geoff Fienberg said he is ready to fire on Hideki Matsuyama now that books have floated an 85-to-1 outright. Fienberg admitted the floor is "lower than ever" because Hideki is spraying it off the tee and no longer owns top-tier distance, but he cannot ignore the current "scorching" approach numbers that rank among the best in the field over the past 24 rounds. Royal Portrush historically rewards elite long-iron play, and Fienberg thinks Matsuyama’s ceiling is still top-five in the world when the irons catch. He noted that other names in the 28-to-33 range (McIntyre, Burns, etc.) are no safer and certainly not three times likelier to win. The bet hinges on Hideki keeping the ball in bounds, yet Fienberg believes the combination of discounted odds, proven Open pedigree, and spike-week potential make 85-1 a "must click" ticket.

Geoff Fienberg signaled genuine interest in Hideki Matsuyama, calling him the ultimate boom-or-bust ticket in the 50-to-60 range. Fienberg admitted Hideki’s missed-cut floor is "lower than ever" thanks to chronic neck flare-ups but countered that his approach numbers remain elite—top-5 in strokes-gained approach over the past 24 rounds. That long-iron dominance, paired with a creative short game that thrives in gnarly lies, gives Matsuyama a ceiling few others in this tier can match if Royal Portrush turns into a demanding second-shot contest. Fienberg plans to wait for tee-time/weather info before firing but said Matsuyama will be on his short list if conditions favor precision over pure length.

Pat Mayo flagged Hideki Matsuyama as a surprise riser in his freshly-built Fantasy National model and thinks the 33-year-old is an undervalued outright and DFS play for Royal Portrush. Over the past 12 measured rounds Hideki sits third in approach and 20th around-the-green, exactly the two stats Mayo weighted most heavily. Off-the-tee numbers are ugly (below-average distance and fairways), but Mayo argued Portrush minimizes driver volume and rewards precise irons that stick to the elevated, rock-hard greens. Matsuyama already flashed Open chops with a sixth-place finish as an amateur and, after a quiet 2024, has gained on approach in five straight starts while finally making putts on slower surfaces. Mayo likes catching him before the market notices the ball-striking rebound and says anything 50-to-1 or longer is click-worthy for outrights with top-10 insurance in betting cards and DFS builds that emphasize scrambling.

Brian Giuffra grabbed Hideki Matsuyama at +3300 despite a 2023 missed cut in Detroit. Matsuyama has gained strokes on approach in two straight starts and with the putter in five of his last six, signaling upward momentum. Giuffra noted the course’s minimal rough negates Hideki’s season-long driver inaccuracy, allowing his elite irons to shine. In birdie-fests Giuffra wants a player who can fire four low rounds, and Matsuyama’s track record of going nuclear when the putter cooperates fits that profile.

Lindeque plans to lay juice on Hideki Matsuyama NOT finishing top-10 via PlayProfitX’s yes/no market. Matsuyama has cracked the top-10 only 7% of his starts in the past year and ranks outside the top-30 in the model’s easy-course scoring and comp-course performance buckets. Lindeque is comfortable paying the premium because "no other books let you short the placement," and he has excess bankroll there after recent wins.

Gannon recommended choosing Hideki Matsuyama over similarly-priced Harry Hall, noting Hideki has gained strokes on approach in back-to-back starts and owns the ceiling to spike "9.8 strokes on approach" any given week. Detroit GC’s wide corridors mitigate Hideki’s occasional wild driver, letting him unleash and attack with short irons. The putter is the lone concern, but Gannon trusts the major-champion pedigree and sees a realistic top-10 payoff at sub-$10K salary.

Patrick Mcdonald faded Hideki Matsuyama, pointing out Hideki’s lone top-10 this season came way back at Kapalua and he has not cracked a top-20 since February. Mcdonald emphasized that Matsuyama’s irons—normally his hallmark—have been neutral for two months, making him overpriced in the teens on outright boards.

Geoff Fienberg said Hideki Matsuyama is the outright he prefers in the mid-tier at TPC River Highlands, noting the Japanese star is almost twice the price of Shane Lowry yet owns "the same win equity." Fienberg pointed to Matsuyama ranking 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach last week at Pinehurst—despite the brutal setup—and argued that iron form usually carries directly into this wedge-heavy layout. With sportsbooks hanging Hideki around 45-1 while similar ball-strikers such as Lowry, Fleetwood and Cantlay sit 25-30 points shorter, Fienberg believes bettors get elite ceiling at a discount. He expects Matsuyama’s tidy short-iron game to generate a birdie barrage on the 125-to-175 yard par-4s and advised grabbing the number before models that emphasize approach play pull Hideki into the 30s.

Dom Cintorino labeled Hideki Matsuyama a ‘very good value’ at 55-1. Matsuyama gained with the irons at Oakmont and has historically been able to find a hot approach week out of nowhere—exactly what Travelers demands. Cintorino admitted the Japanese star once profiled poorly for birdie fests, but winning the low-scoring Sentry showed he can thrive when –20 is required. Driving accuracy is a mild concern, yet the ceiling is undeniable; crossover winners from Kapalua (Schauffele, English, Bradley, Scheffler T5) have translated to River Highlands success, adding another angle in Hideki’s favor. Cintorino plans to start his card with Matsuyama and sprinkle top-10s for additional exposure.

At $8,000, Hideki Matsuyama grades out as a value according to Farnsworth. Matsuyama is historically one of the Tour’s best putters on lightning-fast greens (same surface speed as Augusta where he won), combines that with above-average scrambling, and remains an excellent iron player. The driver has been shaky, but Farnsworth thinks his short-game edge offsets that risk and will have exposure in single-entry and MME builds.

Dom Cintorino is passing on Hideki Matsuyama at 70-1, saying recent driving numbers are too shaky for a venue that punishes every offline swing. Dom noted multiple poor showings in a row where Hideki’s driver put him behind the eight-ball. Given Oakmont’s primary rough demands, he believes Matsuyama can get away with missing fairways 40 % of the time— not the 80 % pattern Hideki has shown lately. Even with a tempting drifted number, Cintorino will keep his bankroll away from the former Masters champ.

Michael Harrison pegged Hideki Matsuyama as his favorite deep dart at +7000. The 2021 Masters champion has made 11 of 12 U.S. Open cuts with four top-10s, including 4th in 2022 and 6th in 2024—his best record at any major. Matsuyama has also recorded three tour wins over the past two seasons, showing he can still close. Harrison advised bettors to take the outright but also back Hideki in top-5/10/20 props, citing his combination of winning pedigree and consistent U.S. Open success.

Chivers urged bettors not to ignore Hideki Matsuyama now that his odds have doubled to 66/1. Matsuyama’s U.S. Open record is quietly elite: 2nd in 2017, 4th in 2022, and 6th in 2024. He ranked 4th in total strokes gained, 15th in approach, and 2nd in scrambling last season, then opened 2025 by winning the Sentry and posting stellar around-the-green numbers. With 11 PGA Tour wins, a 2021 Masters title, and statistical proximity that keeps him out of Oakmont’s murderous bunkers, Chivers thinks Matsuyama’s all-court game and elite short game make him a perfect long-shot ticket.

Pat Mayo warned listeners to fade Hideki Matsuyama in outright and DFS builds, calling his recent results "smoke and mirrors." Matsuyama has gained on approach only sporadically all year and is instead propping up scorecards with hot putting and chip-ins—a recipe Mayo believes collapses under Oakmont’s punishment. With four-inch rough and brutal false fronts, missed greens become automatic bogeys, so Mayo wants iron play, not scrambling luck. Until Hideki starts gaining consistently with his irons, Mayo will not invest a dime at current mid-board prices.

Brandon Gdula cautioned against blindly backing Hideki Matsuyama this week. While the Japanese star owns finishes of 6th, 32nd and 4th over the last three U.S. Opens and has made 11 of 12 cuts in the event, Gdula pointed out that Matsuyama’s hallmark iron play is currently mediocre. Without vintage approach numbers, Hideki could struggle to hold Oakmont’s 14.5-stimp greens out of five-inch rough and 168 bunkers, especially after missing the cut here in 2016. Gdula is passing on outright tickets and will keep DFS exposure light unless mid-week data show his irons have snapped back.

Rick Gehman urged DFS players to jump back on Hideki Matsuyama after his first missed major cut in 19 starts. Hideki gained strokes on the field at Quail despite the MC and has gained 10+ strokes tee-to-green in four of his last five U.S. Opens, including +12.5 at Winged Foot (T17). Gehman trusts Matsuyama’s reputation as the Tour’s ultimate range rat to iron out recent issues, noting that Oakmont’s thick rough and deep bunkers allow him to leverage elite ball-striking without needing short-game heroics. He labeled Hideki a strong difficult-course specialist worth the risk at $8,300.