Brian Giuffra grabbed Hideki Matsuyama at +3300 despite a 2023 missed cut in Detroit. Matsuyama has gained strokes on approach in two straight starts and with the putter in five of his last six, signaling upward momentum. Giuffra noted the course’s minimal rough negates Hideki’s season-long driver inaccuracy, allowing his elite irons to shine. In birdie-fests Giuffra wants a player who can fire four low rounds, and Matsuyama’s track record of going nuclear when the putter cooperates fits that profile.

Lindeque plans to lay juice on Hideki Matsuyama NOT finishing top-10 via PlayProfitX’s yes/no market. Matsuyama has cracked the top-10 only 7% of his starts in the past year and ranks outside the top-30 in the model’s easy-course scoring and comp-course performance buckets. Lindeque is comfortable paying the premium because "no other books let you short the placement," and he has excess bankroll there after recent wins.

Gannon recommended choosing Hideki Matsuyama over similarly-priced Harry Hall, noting Hideki has gained strokes on approach in back-to-back starts and owns the ceiling to spike "9.8 strokes on approach" any given week. Detroit GC’s wide corridors mitigate Hideki’s occasional wild driver, letting him unleash and attack with short irons. The putter is the lone concern, but Gannon trusts the major-champion pedigree and sees a realistic top-10 payoff at sub-$10K salary.

Patrick Mcdonald faded Hideki Matsuyama, pointing out Hideki’s lone top-10 this season came way back at Kapalua and he has not cracked a top-20 since February. Mcdonald emphasized that Matsuyama’s irons—normally his hallmark—have been neutral for two months, making him overpriced in the teens on outright boards.

Geoff Fienberg said Hideki Matsuyama is the outright he prefers in the mid-tier at TPC River Highlands, noting the Japanese star is almost twice the price of Shane Lowry yet owns "the same win equity." Fienberg pointed to Matsuyama ranking 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach last week at Pinehurst—despite the brutal setup—and argued that iron form usually carries directly into this wedge-heavy layout. With sportsbooks hanging Hideki around 45-1 while similar ball-strikers such as Lowry, Fleetwood and Cantlay sit 25-30 points shorter, Fienberg believes bettors get elite ceiling at a discount. He expects Matsuyama’s tidy short-iron game to generate a birdie barrage on the 125-to-175 yard par-4s and advised grabbing the number before models that emphasize approach play pull Hideki into the 30s.

Dom Cintorino labeled Hideki Matsuyama a ‘very good value’ at 55-1. Matsuyama gained with the irons at Oakmont and has historically been able to find a hot approach week out of nowhere—exactly what Travelers demands. Cintorino admitted the Japanese star once profiled poorly for birdie fests, but winning the low-scoring Sentry showed he can thrive when –20 is required. Driving accuracy is a mild concern, yet the ceiling is undeniable; crossover winners from Kapalua (Schauffele, English, Bradley, Scheffler T5) have translated to River Highlands success, adding another angle in Hideki’s favor. Cintorino plans to start his card with Matsuyama and sprinkle top-10s for additional exposure.

At $8,000, Hideki Matsuyama grades out as a value according to Farnsworth. Matsuyama is historically one of the Tour’s best putters on lightning-fast greens (same surface speed as Augusta where he won), combines that with above-average scrambling, and remains an excellent iron player. The driver has been shaky, but Farnsworth thinks his short-game edge offsets that risk and will have exposure in single-entry and MME builds.

Dom Cintorino is passing on Hideki Matsuyama at 70-1, saying recent driving numbers are too shaky for a venue that punishes every offline swing. Dom noted multiple poor showings in a row where Hideki’s driver put him behind the eight-ball. Given Oakmont’s primary rough demands, he believes Matsuyama can get away with missing fairways 40 % of the time— not the 80 % pattern Hideki has shown lately. Even with a tempting drifted number, Cintorino will keep his bankroll away from the former Masters champ.

Michael Harrison pegged Hideki Matsuyama as his favorite deep dart at +7000. The 2021 Masters champion has made 11 of 12 U.S. Open cuts with four top-10s, including 4th in 2022 and 6th in 2024—his best record at any major. Matsuyama has also recorded three tour wins over the past two seasons, showing he can still close. Harrison advised bettors to take the outright but also back Hideki in top-5/10/20 props, citing his combination of winning pedigree and consistent U.S. Open success.

Chivers urged bettors not to ignore Hideki Matsuyama now that his odds have doubled to 66/1. Matsuyama’s U.S. Open record is quietly elite: 2nd in 2017, 4th in 2022, and 6th in 2024. He ranked 4th in total strokes gained, 15th in approach, and 2nd in scrambling last season, then opened 2025 by winning the Sentry and posting stellar around-the-green numbers. With 11 PGA Tour wins, a 2021 Masters title, and statistical proximity that keeps him out of Oakmont’s murderous bunkers, Chivers thinks Matsuyama’s all-court game and elite short game make him a perfect long-shot ticket.

Pat Mayo warned listeners to fade Hideki Matsuyama in outright and DFS builds, calling his recent results "smoke and mirrors." Matsuyama has gained on approach only sporadically all year and is instead propping up scorecards with hot putting and chip-ins—a recipe Mayo believes collapses under Oakmont’s punishment. With four-inch rough and brutal false fronts, missed greens become automatic bogeys, so Mayo wants iron play, not scrambling luck. Until Hideki starts gaining consistently with his irons, Mayo will not invest a dime at current mid-board prices.

Brandon Gdula cautioned against blindly backing Hideki Matsuyama this week. While the Japanese star owns finishes of 6th, 32nd and 4th over the last three U.S. Opens and has made 11 of 12 cuts in the event, Gdula pointed out that Matsuyama’s hallmark iron play is currently mediocre. Without vintage approach numbers, Hideki could struggle to hold Oakmont’s 14.5-stimp greens out of five-inch rough and 168 bunkers, especially after missing the cut here in 2016. Gdula is passing on outright tickets and will keep DFS exposure light unless mid-week data show his irons have snapped back.

Rick Gehman urged DFS players to jump back on Hideki Matsuyama after his first missed major cut in 19 starts. Hideki gained strokes on the field at Quail despite the MC and has gained 10+ strokes tee-to-green in four of his last five U.S. Opens, including +12.5 at Winged Foot (T17). Gehman trusts Matsuyama’s reputation as the Tour’s ultimate range rat to iron out recent issues, noting that Oakmont’s thick rough and deep bunkers allow him to leverage elite ball-striking without needing short-game heroics. He labeled Hideki a strong difficult-course specialist worth the risk at $8,300.

Eric Cohen recommended taking a shot on Hideki Matsuyama at +2800 in the winner-without-Scottie Scheffler market. Matsuyama opened 2025 by winning the Sentry and has tacked on six additional top-25s. He ranks 3rd on Tour in scrambling and 2nd in sand-save percentage, skills Cohen deems 'paramount' for Muirfield Village’s tricky green complexes. Course history sweetens the play: Matsuyama won here in 2014, finished T5 in 2015, solo 6th in 2019, and gained strokes across all major categories en route to a T8 in 2024. With that blend of current form and proven course fit, Cohen views the former Masters champ as a classic boom-or-bust value worth backing.

Worsley recommended Hideki Matsuyama each-way at 35/1, citing the 2014 winner’s elite scrambling (3rd) and around-the-greens play (6th) as perfect weapons for Muirfield Village’s tiny, elevated putting surfaces. Matsuyama sits 30th in SG: Approach but, crucially, 14th from 175-200 yds and 26th from 200+, matching the event’s long-iron emphasis. The driver, erratic early in 2025, has trended up with a recent run of fairway-finding weeks, while the putter has been more reliable than usual. Since opening the year with a three-shot romp at The Sentry, Hideki has logged six top-25s in 11 starts and finished 8th here last season. With two of his last three wins coming in Signature Events and a Masters green jacket confirming bentgrass comfort, Worsley believes Matsuyama owns the statistical and psychological profile to bag Memorial win number two.

McClure’s model recommends Hideki Matsuyama for a Top-10 (ties paid) wager at +220 on DraftKings. Although Matsuyama’s 2025 results have been volatile – a win, six other top-25s, and three missed cuts – he consistently flashes at Muirfield Village, owning a victory plus three additional top-10s, including 8th last year. The boom-or-bust season profile meshes with his ceiling on this track, and the model believes the +220 number underrates that repeated success.

Mike McClure’s simulations recommend playing Hideki Matsuyama for a top-10 (ties paid) at +220 on DraftKings. While Matsuyama has been boom-or-bust in 2025—one victory, six additional top-25s, and three missed cuts—the model gives weight to his exceptional history at Muirfield Village. The 2014 champion has three other top-10s here, including eighth place last season, indicating a reliable ceiling on this track. McClure believes the Japanese star’s proven comfort with the demanding approach shots and slick Bentgrass greens offsets the volatility and makes a plus-money finish ticket attractive.

Kenny Kim labeled Hideki Matsuyama his “Hustler Play of the Week,” projecting single-digit ownership despite Hideki rating No. 1 in Kim’s long-and-difficult course model. Matsuyama gains over a stroke per round on approaches from 150-200 yards – the most common bucket at Muirfield – and sits 5th in strokes-gained around the green over his last 36 rounds. Kim expects 50-60 % of approaches to come from that 150-200 window and another 20-30 % from 200+, both strengths for the 2014 Memorial champ. With bentgrass his best putting surface and ownership likely suppressed by memories of his 2022 DQ for white-out on the driver, Kim views Hideki as premium GPP leverage at $9.4K.

Kim called Hideki Matsuyama a classic ‘out-of-nowhere’ winner and grabbed him at 45-1 with three places. His custom model ranks Hideki No. 1 on long, difficult courses thanks to elite irons and a tidy short game. Kim ran through Matsuyama’s pattern of popping after mediocre finishes—Genesis ’23, St. Jude ’23, even his 2021 Masters win—and noted that Hideki gained 2.5 strokes on approach in his last start. With bentgrass greens and plenty of 175-to-225-yard approaches, Kim thinks the former Memorial champ is flying under the radar at a venue where tidy tee-to-green work beats raw distance.

Rich Gehman is buying Hideki Matsuyama despite a PGA Championship MC, pointing to his stellar Memorial résumé and encouraging recent form. Matsuyama, a past champion at Muirfield Village, rebounded at the Charles Schwab by gaining 2.5 strokes tee-to-green and has now gained strokes putting in three straight events—an uncommon run for him. Gehman reminded viewers Matsuyama was once disqualified here for white-out on a club face yet still owns finishes of T-16 and T-8 since, routinely flashing top-tier ball-striking. Given the course-history stickiness and Hideki’s newfound confidence with the flat stick, Gehman recommended deploying him in DFS builds and targeting top-5 markets for bettors seeking a bounce-back payoff.

Gannon is off Hideki this week, calling him a ‘high-risk, high-reward’ play he personally will not roster. At the PGA Championship Gannon watched Matsuyama’s swing in person and came away concerned by several rough patches, culminating in a missed cut at Quail Hollow. While acknowledging Hideki’s elite ceiling, Matt believes the floor is a trunk-slam given the current ball-striking volatility and prefers other options in the same pricing tier.

Geoff Ulrich said Hideki Matsuyama is the sneakiest way to start a non-Scottie Scheffler roster this week. Ulrich admitted he “didn’t even realize Hideki was in the field” until research began, which tells him most builders will overlook the former Masters champ entirely. At roughly the second-highest salary on DraftKings, Matsuyama offers Scheffler-like ball-striking but projects for a fraction of the ownership because the crowd is either jamming Scheffler or diving into the 9K balance tier. Ulrich likes opening Hideki-Maverick McNealy or Hideki-Si Woo Kim builds, which still leave an average of $7,700 per spot—plenty to plug in preferred mid-price wind specialists like Nicolas Echavarria or Harry Hall. With nasty weekend gusts expected to shuffle the board, Ulrich trusts Hideki’s veteran patience and elite around-the-green game to surge while chalkier constructions anchored by Daniel Berger or Aaron Rai stall. He framed Matsuyama as the leverage point that can win large-field GPPs if Scheffler merely posts a top-10 instead of a victory.

Pat Mayo explained that if he skips Scottie Scheffler altogether he will start lineups with Hideki Matsuyama—who he called the second-best golfer in the field—paired with Robert MacIntyre. Ownership projections show virtually no one clicking Hideki because builders are either jamming Scheffler or dropping straight into the Berger/Rai tier. Mayo likes the leverage: Matsuyama’s elite tee-to-green game ranks top-3 on Tour this season, and he has gained strokes putting in four of his last five starts, a key at Colonial where winners routinely need +6 on the greens. At a sub-5-percent roster rate and a $9K salary that still allows him to cram five low-8K wind specialists (Lucas Glover, Michael Kim, Akshay Bhatia, Harry Hall, Brian Harman), Mayo believes Hideki can be the difference-maker if Scheffler merely finishes top-10 instead of winning.

Andy Lang labeled Hideki Matsuyama a potential "trap" this week, noting that after his statement win at The Sentry the Japanese star has failed to crack a top-10 finish and has missed the cut in three of his last five starts. Despite eye-catching strokes-gained numbers that mirror Fleetwood’s, books have Matsuyama priced inside the top-five outright tier. Lang sees no recent evidence—let alone top-10 upside—to warrant that number and recommends avoiding exposure until Hideki strings together at least one contending weekend.

Although he thinks only five super-stars can realistically win, Matt Every still circled Hideki Matsuyama at sub 50-1 as the lone mid-range ticket worth a sprinkle. Matsuyama’s high-launch long-iron game ranks top-10 in SG:Approach from 175-225 yards—the exact window that appears seven times a round at Quail—and his 118-mph ball speed gives him the carry distance to manage saturated fairways. Every noted Hideki has gained strokes off-the-tee in eight straight starts and owns multiple soft-course major top-5s (Erin Hills, Harding Park, Oak Hill). With the market obsessed with Scheffler, McIlroy and DeChambeau, Every believes Matsuyama offers sneaky win equity and is a live Top-10 bet.

DaSilva grabbed Matsuyama at +120 in his matchup with Tommy Fleetwood (-150). He thinks the market overvalues Fleetwood despite Hideki’s fifth-place finish here in 2017, strong driving metrics, and top-tier short game. With both players in similar form, DaSilva prefers the golfer with proven Quail Hollow success at plus money.

Matsuyama is +320 for a top-10, a price DaSilva views as generous given the Japanese star’s T-5 showing the last time the PGA visited Quail Hollow (2017) and his solid T-17 at the Truist Championship last week despite a shaky Sunday. Hideki’s reliable driving and elite short game should travel well on Quail’s demanding green complexes, making him a strong high-odds placement play.

At +4000, Matsuyama is DaSilva’s stealth contender. He slipped to T-17 after a Sunday 74 at the Truist Championship, masking otherwise solid ball-striking. Matsuyama finished fifth in the 2017 PGA at Quail, gaining strokes around the greens—an asset again on the course’s shaved run-offs. DaSilva thinks the Japanese star’s elite scrambling will limit damage when he inevitably misses greens, giving him a clear path to the weekend leaderboard.

Matt Gannon highlighted Hideki Matsuyama at 45-1 as the best mid-tier outright. Hideki has gained a combined 10 strokes on approach over his last two starts, owns prior top finishes at Quail Hollow, and already boasts a major on the resume. Gannon stressed that Quail’s layout lets elite ball-strikers separate, and few can match Hideki when his irons are peaking. Given that profile, he believes 45-1 is simply mis-priced relative to comparable players in the 30s.

Matt Gannon likes Hideki Matsuyama at $9,400, pointing to back-to-back starts gaining double-digit strokes on approach and a past top-five at Quail. Firm Bermuda greens and long-iron requirements align with Hideki’s strengths. While he concedes the driver can be shaky, Gannon believes the combination of elite irons, proven course record, and discounted salary gives Matsuyama slate-breaking potential.

Gehman highlighted Hideki Matsuyama as a sneaky premium play, noting the Japanese star is long enough off the tee, driving it well, and owns an underrated short game that will matter with Quail Hollow’s traditionally low GIR numbers. Matsuyama’s Saturday 63 at Philly Cricket featured the fourth-best putting round of his career, proving he can get hot with the flat stick. Gehman expects plenty of missed greens and six-foot par-savers this week and believes Matsuyama’s elite scrambling gives him multiple paths to the top of the board. He stands out in the $9K DFS range and is worth a sprinkle in placement and outright markets.

Joe Idone already owns a 35-to-1 ticket on Hideki Matsuyama but is debating a small hedge at the still-available 50s after books refused to move the number. Idone highlighted Hideki’s three wins in the last 15 months—Genesis, Century, FedEx St. Jude—proving the 32-year-old still closes in big events. The Japanese star gained 8.6 strokes on approach at Augusta and was fifth at Quail in 2017, demonstrating both recent iron form and course comfort. Idone compared Matsuyama’s ceiling to nearby names like Cantlay, Fleetwood, Spieth and Lowry who have zero wins over the same span, calling Hideki the only player in that range capable of “blitzing the field.” He is happy to anchor outright cards at 50 and will add more if 60-to-1 appears.

Kenny Kim said Hideki Matsuyama at 50-to-1 is the first long-odds number that actually tempts him for an outright. Matsuyama gained 8.6 strokes on approach at Augusta, a signal the trademark irons are heating up, and he finished fifth the last time the PGA visited Quail Hollow in 2017. Kim loves Hideki’s combination of historically elite long-iron play and a rock-solid short game, both crucial on a 7,600-yard track with gnarly rough around the greens. As a proven major winner who can pop out of nowhere, Matsuyama could become the highest-priced ticket on Kim’s card if the market drifts into the low 60s.

Matt Vincenzi took Hideki Matsuyama +3500 for FRL, spotlighting his success in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and at Baltusrol (T5, 2016 PGA—another Tillinghast). Matsuyama ranks 2nd over his last 50 rounds on approaches from 100-150 yards, a distance range likely to decide birdie looks on Philadelphia Cricket’s multi-tiered greens.

Kannon played Hideki Matsuyama at 33-1 to win and for a top-10 because the correlated-course resume and short-game numbers leap off the page. Matsuyama has logged high finishes on multiple Tillinghast venues—16th at Bethpage (2019 PGA), 17th at Winged Foot (2020 U.S. Open), 15th at Ridgewood (2018 Northern Trust), and 4th at Baltrusol (2016 PGA)—plus top-10s at Merion and The Country Club. Over the last 24 rounds he is No. 1 in Scrambling, No. 2 in Sand Saves, 18th in GIR gained, and 10th in proximity from 175-200 yards. He ranked 2nd in SG: Approach at the Masters en route to a T-21, signaling his irons are dialed. With 118 bunkers and slick Bentgrass greens expected to place a premium on recovery play, Kannon believes Matsuyama’s short-game edge makes him a strong buy.

Andy Lack admitted his error in heavily backing Hideki Matsuyama at The Masters, emphasizing that Matsuyama typically only excels when largely overlooked by bettors and DFS players. Despite recognizing that Matsuyama had strong recent form and proven track record at Augusta, Lack noted Matsuyama's extreme volatility, which makes him difficult to predict. This unpredictability was evident with Matsuyama's late collapse, shooting 79 in a round and severely damaging Lack’s DFS lineups. Lack highlighted previous lessons where Matsuyama has historically underperformed when touted and exceeded expectations when flying under the radar, reinforcing that Matsuyama should be considered primarily as a contrarian DFS and betting option in the future.

Rick Gehman offered a positive perspective regarding Hideki Matsuyama at Augusta despite concerns about recent form. Gehman emphasized Matsuyama's underrated elite short game skillset, noting he led the PGA Tour in scrambling last season and remains near the top again this year. Gehman pointed to Matsuyama's exceptional scrambling results specifically at Augusta National over recent tournaments, ranking top among all players since 2020. He further highlighted Matsuyama's success on courses featuring challenging elevation changes, referencing his record-breaking performance at the Sentry Tournament of Champions earlier this year. Though Gehman's enthusiasm was tempered by Matsuyama's lack of a single top-10 finish outside of his Masters victory, he still suggested Matsuyama's proven short-game excellence at Augusta makes him an intriguing undervalued play warranting some exposure.

Brady Kannon points out Hideki Matsuyama as a strong Masters betting consideration, noting his past Masters win (2021) and solid correlated course results, including victories at Riviera and Kapalua. Kannon emphasizes Matsuyama's statistical strengths over the last 36 rounds: 13th in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in Scrambling, and 5th on par-5s. With experience, consistency, and solid current form, Matsuyama holds excellent value at his odds.

Bo McBrayer considers Hideki Matsuyama a strong value ahead of the 2025 Masters due to his Masters-winning pedigree and skill fit for Augusta. Highlighting Matsuyama's emotional past win, McBrayer argues Matsuyama possesses precisely the skillset tailored for Augusta, with outstanding iron play and a sharp short game. He notes Matsuyama's proven ability to score low even under difficult conditions. At +3000 odds, McBrayer sees excellent potential in Matsuyama to join the small group of repeat Masters champions.

Dave Tindall identifies Hideki Matsuyama as a risky fantasy or betting play for the 2025 Masters, citing his recent poor form—a marked decline after his brilliant early-season win at The Sentry. Matsuyama missed cuts at both The Players Championship and Texas Open leading into Augusta, presenting serious red flags despite his historical success, including winning in 2021 and multiple near-top-10 finishes at The Masters. Given this sudden slump, Tindall advises caution in trusting Matsuyama to reproduce past Augusta performances.

Cam Stewart highlighted Hideki Matsuyama's potential to thrive in wet conditions at Augusta, referencing his dominant performance in 2021 when rain delays led to softer conditions. Despite Matsuyama having only three top-ten finishes total in majors since 2018, Stewart strongly believes that softer conditions favor Matsuyama's aggressive iron play, allowing him to aggressively attack pins—exactly how he won the Masters previously. Stewart clearly stated the wetter Augusta gets, the better chance Hideki has of contending due to his elite iron game.

Skylar Hoke suggested strategically targeting Hideki Matsuyama in DFS specifically when he's flying under the radar due to poor form. Matsuyama's recent back-to-back missed cuts (Players and Valero Texas Open) mirror his pre-2021 Masters-winning run, where he broke every recent-form trend entering Augusta. Though Hoke admitted Matsuyama's current form is concerning—especially his disappointing showing at Valero—he believes Hideki's volatility provides exceptional DFS upside since his best days can beat the world's elites. However, Hoke warned DFS players to be attentive early Thursday, as Matsuyama carries an unusually high withdrawal risk given persistent injury concerns, making him high-risk, high-reward at Augusta.

Pat Fitzmaurice strongly endorsed Hideki Matsuyama in the mid-range betting odds for the 2025 Masters, noting his past champion status and strategic alignment with Augusta National's demands. Matsuyama has historically excelled at Augusta, combining consistent iron play, disciplined shot-shaping, and an underrated short game, including his impressive Masters win in 2021. Fitzmaurice indicated Matsuyama's strengths match Augusta particularly well, calling him an optimal betting target given the reasonable odds relative to the top-tier betting favorites.

Brandon Gdula recognized Hideki Matsuyama for his remarkable Augusta consistency, with 12 made cuts in 13 appearances, a victory four years ago, and five recent finishes of 1st, 13th, 14th, 16th, and 38th. Despite this impressive history, Matsuyama's recent decline in putting performance and potential rib injury raises minor concerns this year. However, Gdula indicated Matsuyama could still be valuable for DFS lineups considering his proven Augusta National success and consistent cut-making reliability.