Gannon likes Justin Thomas at $9,300, calling this a "true litmus-test" week. JT has never gained on approach at the Renaissance Club, an oddity for a generational iron player, yet he is in the midst of an excellent 2025 approach season and gained across the board at the Travelers. Gannon believes the price bakes in past course struggles and sees a ceiling if JT finally flips his irons here.

Brady Kannon said Justin Thomas was worth an outright wager at 35-1 to win the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open. Thomas has more course reps than most American stars, debuting here in 2019 and finishing 9th. Kannon compared The Renaissance Club to PGA National, Riviera, and Kapalua—tracks where Thomas owns wins or elite history—arguing that their shared emphasis on precise iron play and scrambling suits his strengths. He called Thomas one of the game’s premier iron players, scramblers, and birdie makers. Kannon added that the fescue greens will run slower because of coastal weather, a condition that typically neutralizes Thomas’ streaky putter, making the 35-1 number “very generous.”

Pat Mayo added an UNDER on Justin Thomas’ 6.5 Fairways-Hit line to round out his four-leg flex play. Thomas sits 118th on Tour in driving accuracy this season (56 %) and now faces the toughest wind window of the day. Renaissance features only 13 par-4/5 tee shots, meaning JT must find seven fairways to beat the prop—something he has accomplished in just three of his last ten opening rounds. Mayo argued that Thomas’ tendency to club down to 3-wood on links tracks won’t help enough because the early-morning gusts are expected to blow across the doglegs rather than into or downwind, pushing even conservative lines into the short fescue. He likes Thomas this week overall, but sees the windy AM draw as a perfect spot to short his Round-1 accuracy.

Sia Nejad urged listeners to buy the dip on Justin Thomas at 37-1 (or nearly 50-1 with site boosts) and sub-10 percent DraftKings ownership. Nejad pointed out the Renaissance Club allows players to be "wayward with the driver," neutralizing JT’s biggest weakness. The course instead emphasizes approach play and creativity around the greens—two areas where Thomas still flashes elite ceilings, including the 61 he opened with here in 2022. Nejad thinks the industry is sleeping on Thomas’ win equity; a simulator Pat Mayo referenced still gives him roughly 3.5 percent to win despite his recent slump. At that price/ownership combo, Nejad believes Thomas is a +EV outright ticket and an ideal tournament pivot.

Fitzmaurice said bettors should remove Justin Thomas from consideration entirely. Thomas followed missed cuts with 60th and 62nd-place finishes in his last three Scottish Opens and has been one of the worst drivers on Tour this season. Pat stressed that at Renaissance you simply cannot recover from bad tee shots because the thick native areas and pot bunkers kill scoring chances, making JT’s current off-the-tee funk a non-starter.

Shane Bacon labeled Justin Thomas a live outright option despite recent volatility. He noted it would be ‘very Justin Thomas-like’ to win the week before the Open and then implode at the major, a pattern the two-time PGA champion has shown. The segment reviewed Thomas’s rocky links résumé—T62 here last year after opening 62-72, followed by 68-78 at St. Andrews, plus scattered 81s and 77s in other majors—yet highlighted his ability to fire sporadic 66s when everything clicks. Bacon views that ceiling as worth chasing in outright markets or large-field DFS contests, accepting the accompanying risk.

Kenny Kim is considering Justin Thomas as his primary game-theory pivot in the $9K range provided two conditions hit: projected ownership below 12 percent and a benign weather forecast (minimal wind, firm but scorable conditions). Thomas has flopped in three straight Scottish Opens and owns a mediocre overall links record, yet Kenny argues Renaissance Club is closer to a short, less-than-driver parkland test where JT has thrived over the past year. Four of the last seven editions have been won at −18 or deeper, a target score that fits Thomas’s wedge-heavy, birdie-making profile. If forecasts point to another 20-under shoot-out and the crowd chases safer names like Aberg, Morikawa, and Bobby Mac, Kim will insert Thomas into his $44 multi-entry GPP pool as a leverage play while eating chalk elsewhere.

Byron Lindeque laid –125 on Justin Thomas NOT to finish inside the Top-20 at the Genesis Scottish Open. Lindeque pointed out that Thomas has never solved Renaissance Club, logging finishes of 60th, 62nd, and a missed cut in his three appearances despite generally excelling in windy conditions elsewhere. The lack of Scottish Open success mirrors Thomas’s middling Open Championship resume, so Byron is willing to pay moderate juice to fade him in what he views as a clear course-fit mismatch.

Rick Gehman called Justin Thomas “the biggest trap of the week.” The narrative that JT’s elite short-game creativity automatically translates to links golf is not backed by results: at the Renaissance Club he followed solid showings in 2019 and 2021 with MC-T60-T62 the last three trips. His Open Championship resume is equally middling—outside of an 11th at Portrush in 2019 he lacks another top 30. Gehman thinks Thomas simply hasn’t figured out how to score in firm-and-fast conditions and cautioned listeners against paying the $8K-plus salary just because of name value or short-game reputation.

Brandon Gdula said the market finally drifted far enough to pounce on Justin Thomas at 30-1 outright. Using DataGolf’s rolling 50-round ceiling stat, Thomas ranks third in this field at +5.0 strokes gained above baseline, trailing only Scottie Scheffler (+5.6) and Rory McIlroy (+5.2). Gdula stressed that the two names ahead of him have seven wins this year, proving the metric translates. He compared TPC River Highlands to Harbour Town, another short par-70 where Thomas won the RBC Heritage, and noted JT owns back-to-back top-10s here while gaining across all tee-to-green categories each time. The no-cut format provides four guaranteed rounds to realize that ceiling. With elite upside, a proven course fit, and odds lengthened from 25-1 to 30-1 after a missed cut at the U.S. Open, Gdula believes Thomas is undervalued and worth a one-unit outright bet.

Brandon Gdula said he is "probably back" on Justin Thomas for outright bets and DFS line-ups at TPC River Highlands. Gdula stressed that the Travelers plays to JT’s strengths: it is the shortest par-70 on Tour (6,844 yards) with three par-4s under 400 yards, two par-3s under 175 yards and only one genuine three-shot par-5. With wide fairways but tiny greens, the event rewards players who keep it in play off the tee and dial wedges and short irons from 125–175 yards—exactly the profile Thomas flashed when he contended at Harbour Town earlier this year. Gdula’s model will overweight fairways-gained plus approach proficiency in that 125-175 window, areas where Thomas still grades top-10 despite a rough U.S. Open. The 72-man, no-cut format also gives Thomas four guaranteed rounds to leverage his elite birdie rate. Gdula views him as a live outright bet and a core DFS piece in balanced builds that de-emphasize raw driving distance.

Farnsworth labeled Justin Thomas a classic GPP pivot. JT has three straight disappointing results but historically excels on shorter Pete Dye venues and owns back-to-back top-10s at the Travelers. Thomas still ranks top-10 in approach over the last 12 months and can spike with the putter on slow greens. Given suppressed ownership and unquestioned upside, Farnsworth likes rolling the dice on JT in tournaments rather than cash games.

Patrick McDonald named Justin Thomas as his pick to win, emphasizing how TPC River Highlands rewards players who "pin their ears back" off the tee and lean on wedge play—Thomas’s calling card. JT spent Saturday afternoon grinding on the Pinehurst range despite missing the cut, then stayed for the player charter to Connecticut, signaling he’s locked in. Thomas ranks 3rd on TOUR in proximity from 100–125 yards and is gaining nearly a stroke per round around the greens, tools McDonald believes translate to another 20-under style shootout. At longer odds than the Big Three, Thomas is Patrick’s favorite outright ticket and core DFS play.

Matt Brown jumped on Justin Thomas at 40-1, calling it the best number available before the market crashed into the mid-20s. Brown said River Highlands is tailor-made for Thomas’ current skillset: club-down tee shots keep everyone in the fairway, then it turns into a wedge contest. Thomas trails only Scottie Scheffler in proximity with scoring irons and has quietly gained strokes putting in eight consecutive events, a streak Brown emphasized as proof JT has finally solved his biggest leak. With distance neutralized and greens under 5,000 sq. ft., Brown expects Thomas’ elite wedge-plus-putter combo to generate a barrage of makeable birdie looks. He labeled 40-1 a clear buy signal in outright and each-way markets and warned listeners not to chase now that books have chopped the price to 25-30-1.

Brandon Gdula grabbed Justin Thomas at 30-1, arguing that TPC River Highlands shares enough traits with Harbour Town—tight sight lines and wedges galore—where JT already won this season. Over the last 50 rounds, his statistical ceiling ranks third in the field behind only Scheffler and McIlroy. Gdula expects a bounce-back after the missed cut at Oakmont and thinks Thomas’s elite all-around upside is being discounted.

Kenny Kim named Justin Thomas his “Hustler Play of the Week,” expecting single-digit ownership at an $8.9K salary. Kim noted that JT has gained more than six strokes with his irons in two of his last three starts—both on short, medium-difficulty layouts—and historically lights up similar venues: 1st/2nd at the Truist, 1st/2nd at Harbour Town, 2nd at Valspar, 6th at TPC Scottsdale, 2nd at the American Express. All of those stops fit River Highlands’ profile of sub-7,100-yard tracks that reward creative wedges. Although Thomas enters off MC-31-MC (Memorial plus two majors), Kim chalked that skid up to brutal setups and believes a softer scoring environment combined with elite recent approach play creates tournament-winning upside at just 50-1 in the outright market and as a low-owned DFS pivot.

Byron Lindeque pounced on Justin Thomas at 50-1 (three places each-way) after the market drifted from 22-1 on Monday. Lindeque’s form tool shows Thomas loses strokes on hard layouts but is elite on medium and easy courses—he ranks in the 92nd percentile for scoring on those setups while falling below tour average on the brutal ones we just saw at Memorial and Oakmont. TPC River Highlands is far more forgiving off the tee, which mitigates JT’s weakest club and lets him lean on creativity from light rough. Lindeque is banking on positive regression following a MC-31st-MC stretch that has scared casual bettors off. He will hedge by limiting DFS ownership but likes the outright and each-way ticket at anything 45-1 or longer.

Pat Mayo said he is strongly considering an outright on Justin Thomas at 22-to-1 (and would love anything 24-1) because TPC River Highlands is, in his words, “just a wedge fest.â€� Mayo is willing to throw out Thomas’s disastrous U.S. Open, noting that the Travelers doesn’t require flawless driving—fairways are optional as long as you can pepper flags from 75-125 yards, a range where JT ranks top-10 on Tour. Mayo added that the no-cut format amplifies Thomas’s birdie-streak upside and gives the former World No. 1 four full rounds for the putter to heat up. With public sentiment soured by one bad major week, Mayo thinks the current price is a clear buy for outrights, top-5s, and “without Schefflerâ€� markets.

Eric Polzin pegged Justin Thomas as a bounce-back option after a disappointing major. He noted last week’s venue was a poor fit for JT’s game, whereas TPC River Highlands rewards the wedge play and birdie runs Thomas excels at. Thomas ranks 6th in the field in Birdie-or-Better on easy scoring tracks and top-10 in Approach from 100-150 yards, a key distance on this sub-7,000-yard par-70. Polzin believes the market will overreact to JT’s missed cut, creating leverage in DFS and a potentially juicy 30-1 outright number that doesn’t reflect his specialist profile.

Dom Cintorino identified Justin Thomas as his favorite starting point on the odds board (around 28-1). Thomas missed the cut at Oakmont but immediately stayed on the range to diagnose what went wrong—evidence to Cintorino that the motivation is still there. River Highlands is a perfect second-shot track for JT, who ranks top-10 on Tour in approach from 125-175 yards, the most common bucket on this Par-70. He owns back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Travelers, so course history checks out, and with the event structured as a no-cut signature tournament, Cintorino believes the reduced pressure will let Thomas’s high-volatility scoring profile shine across four guaranteed rounds. If you are looking to build an outright card without Scheffler or Rory at the top, Cintorino recommends starting with Thomas.

Gannon tagged Justin Thomas as a prime rebound target. He believes a ‘cookie-cutter TPC design’ highlights Thomas’s iron creativity and wedge prowess after a poor U.S. Open showing. At $9,400, Thomas offers leverage against chalkier names in the same range while still owning top-5 upside in a birdie fest.

Rick Gehman said this is one of the few current PGA Tour venues where Justin Thomas can still be deployed with confidence. He compared TPC River Highlands to Harbour Town—another short, positional track where Thomas logged a T5—arguing JT’s erratic driver becomes a non-issue because he can throttle down to fairway metals and long irons. Gehman noted back-to-back top-10 finishes for Thomas at the Travelers, highlighted by +1.5 strokes putting last year despite entering on a six-event stretch of red-hot tee-to-green play. Gehman’s caddie-for-a-day strategy is simple: “snap the driver over your knee,” lean on elite wedge play (4th in proximity 100-150 yds this season) and trust a resurging putter. At $9.3K on DraftKings with ownership likely muted after a middling U.S. Open, Gehman labeled Thomas a core GPP play and viable outright bet at 35-1.

Andy Lack called TPC River Highlands a 'Justin Thomas golf course' and a textbook flop-lag opportunity after JT burned the DFS community at Oakmont. Thomas still ranks top-10 on Tour in birdies-or-better from 100-150 yards and gains nearly a stroke per round around the green, two assets that map directly to River Highlands’ small, raised putting surfaces. Lack expects ownership to crater into single digits because of the recent missed cut, creating strong GPP leverage. He is looking to back Thomas in head-to-head match-ups versus equally volatile bombers and will sprinkle outrights if the market offers 35-to-1 or longer, noting JT has converted six of his last ten starts on courses where driver is not mandatory.

Dom Cintorino pivoted from outright numbers to a placement bet and grabbed Justin Thomas at +135 for a top-20 finish. Dom stressed that Oakmont’s brutality will wipe 70 names off the board before the weekend, so a player who can succeed via multiple skill paths becomes extremely valuable. He trusts JT in exactly those kinds of grind-fests: Thomas can flash a spike iron week or lean on his world-class scrambling to survive missed greens. Cintorino said he “sees him in the mix 10 times out of 10” on this course, making plus money on a top-20 an auto-click in the positional market.

Matt Gannon called the 45-1 outright number on Justin Thomas "ridiculous" given Oakmont’s projected fairway carnage. Gannon expects nearly everyone to be hacking out to 75-100 yards after missing fairways and argued there is “no one you want more than JT from that range.” Thomas ranks among the very best on Tour in approaches inside 125 yards, owns the short-game creativity to turn gouge-and-wedge sequences into pars, and already has a 2025 PGA TOUR win on the résumé. Gannon compared the pricing to Collin Morikawa being half the odds and said this is the best number bettors have seen on Thomas all year, making him a must-bet with each-way exposure.

Michael Harrison endorsed Justin Thomas at +4000, noting the two-time PGA champion has rediscovered his best stuff. JT owns a win at the RBC Heritage plus runner-up finishes at the Truist Championship and Valspar this season. Over his last 24 measured rounds he ranks 3rd in strokes gained: putting and 7th in total SG, signals that both his flat stick and all-around game are peaking. Although his last U.S. Open top-10 came in 2020, Harrison believes the current statistical surge outweighs that drought and makes Thomas a plus-EV outright bet.

Although Thomas has climbed to No. 5 in Data Golf, Fairholm will not touch him this week. JT’s driver is below Tour average in accuracy and distance, and he has been objectively bad at recent U.S. Opens. On a 7,400-yard par-70 with penal rough, Fairholm prefers to save Thomas exposure for venues where precision irons matter more than raw length.

Kenny Kim plans to wager on Justin Thomas to miss the cut and will have zero DFS exposure. He called JT’s driving accuracy "one of the worst in the field" and noted that the two-time major winner no longer possesses elite length to offset wildness. Kim’s course-condition model shows Thomas hemorrhaging strokes on layouts that play over par, and his accuracy numbers get even worse in majors. With Oakmont demanding fairways and punishing errant drives with church-pew bunkers and gnarly rough, Kim sees no path for Thomas to survive the week.

Jim Sannes added Justin Thomas at 40-to-1, dismissing back-to-back negative approach weeks as noise rather than injury because Thomas still gained 0.7 strokes off the tee at Memorial. Over the last six months Thomas ranks fourth on TOUR in True Strokes Gained—trailing only Scheffler, McIlroy and DeChambeau—thanks to a win at RBC Heritage and a runner-up at the Truist. Using Sannes’ stabilization windows (30 recent rounds OTT, 40 APP, 50 short game), JT sits seventh overall in the Oakmont field yet is priced behind two dozen players. Sannes trusts Thomas’s major pedigree and ‘intestinal fortitude’ more than comparable long-shots, even laying a finishing-position side bet against Tommy Fleetwood to back up the call.

Gehman advised steering clear of Justin Thomas this week. Since his Harbour Town win, JT has been "wild with the driver," losing strokes off the tee in multiple events and posting back-to-back negative approach outings. Although the putter has flashed, Thomas has missed more major cuts than he’s made since his 2022 PGA victory, suggesting added pressure on big-event weeks. Gehman doubts Thomas can handle Oakmont’s punishing fairways if the driver remains erratic and labeled him a poor value in both DFS and betting markets.

Pat Mayo recommended fading Justin Thomas outright and in DFS because Oakmont’s setup punishes his current driving woes. Thomas ranks 109th on TOUR in Good-Drive Percentage this season and has lost strokes off the tee in six of his last eight starts. Mayo noted that Thomas’s trademark high-spin wedges are less valuable when firm greens require low-spin bump-and-runs from 30–40 yards instead of zipping it back. With OB right on multiple holes and cross bunkers taking driver out of his hands, Mayo doubts Thomas can play from the fairway often enough to let his elite iron game matter.

Len Hochberg warned that Justin Thomas will not live up to his DraftKings price at Oakmont. Thomas ranks just 152nd on TOUR in driving accuracy and has done his best work this year on shorter tracks where he can leave driver in the bag. Oakmont forces players to hit driver and punishes misses with thick rough and firm greens. Thomas is coming off a missed cut at the PGA Championship and, although he does have a victory this season, the combination of wild tee shots and a premium salary makes him a player to avoid in DFS cash games and GPPs alike.

Pat Mayo recommended building a to-miss-the-cut parlay built around four household names—Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama—arguing Oakmont’s setup (top-60 cut, 5-inch rough, only two par-5s) will claim at least one star and create a 50-to-1 type payout. Mayo highlighted specific red flags: Thomas’ continued iron regression (-0.4 SG:Approach last 12 rounds), Schauffele’s habit of leaving one key club at home recently, Spieth’s wild driver that ranked 122nd in fairways gained at the PGA, and Matsuyama’s week-to-week putting volatility on Poa. With fairways averaging just 24 yards wide and the field forced into long-iron approaches, Mayo believes any of these four could post back-to-back 76s if the driver or putter goes sideways. He advised playing the quartet as both a straight parlay and a round-robin to capture multiple combinations if only two or three crash out.

Dom Cintorino endorsed betting Justin Thomas at 18-1, calling him the most under-talked name on the board. Thomas has gained strokes putting in six straight events for the first time in his career while continuing his year-long surge in ball-striking. Cintorino is ignoring the missed cut at Valhalla, noting JT entered the PGA Championship as one of only three players (with Bryson and Rory) that bettors genuinely expected to win. With improved putting, a six-event top-tier approach baseline, and odds drifting because of one poor major, Hoke labeled Thomas a classic ‘flop lag’ buy at Muirfield Village despite modest course history.

Alongside Schauffele, Justin Thomas lands on Farnsworth’s fade list. His total-driving metric is “not that great, especially recently,” and a low fairway-hit rate is lethal at Muirfield Village where thick rough shrinks GIRs to 54 %. Farnsworth believes JT will be stuck in defense mode too often to pay off his upper-tier price tag.

Jim Sannes said Justin Thomas is the runaway No. 2 play behind Scottie Scheffler on FanDuel this week. At an $11.4K salary, Thomas supplies the small-green skill set Muirfield Village demands: over a large sample he is “very, very good around the green” and continues to flash elite irons despite a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Sannes noted Thomas has gained strokes putting in recent starts and still posts positive off-the-tee numbers even without pinpoint accuracy. Because the analyst is less enamored with the rest of the $11K tier (Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood), he wants to jam Thomas into most non-Scheffler builds and is even tinkering with stars-and-scrubs constructions that squeeze in both Thomas and Scheffler.

Iain MacMillan advised betting Justin Thomas outright at +1800 for the Memorial. MacMillan pointed out that Thomas ranks second in the entire field in true strokes gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage. The writer believes the market is giving bettors a discount because Thomas missed the cut at the PGA Championship, a result MacMillan is willing to overlook given Thomas’s otherwise strong recent form. MacMillan emphasized Thomas’s elite iron play and expects his approach game to keep him in contention through the weekend at Muirfield Village.

Bill Rabinowitz recommended wagering on Justin Thomas at +1400 despite the missed cut at the PGA. He highlighted that in the four starts preceding that stumble Thomas finished runner-up twice and won the RBC Heritage in a playoff. While JT has been "shaky off the tee," Rabinowitz likes how his putter is carrying him—an asset on Jack Nicklaus’ slick greens. With Xander Schauffele still searching for form after an early-season injury, Rabinowitz sees Thomas as the best alternative to Scheffler at the top of the board.

Iain MacMillan said Justin Thomas is his favorite outright bet at +1800. Thomas ranks second in the entire Memorial field in True Strokes Gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage, something several peers near the top of the odds board cannot claim. MacMillan believes the number bakes in an overreaction to Thomas’ missed cut at the PGA Championship; prior to that hiccup, his form was trending up. Because Muirfield Village relentlessly rewards elite iron play, MacMillan expects Thomas’ approach game to keep him in contention all four days and sees the 18-1 price as a rare discount on a premier ball-striker.