Dom Cintorino endorsed betting Justin Thomas at 18-1, calling him the most under-talked name on the board. Thomas has gained strokes putting in six straight events for the first time in his career while continuing his year-long surge in ball-striking. Cintorino is ignoring the missed cut at Valhalla, noting JT entered the PGA Championship as one of only three players (with Bryson and Rory) that bettors genuinely expected to win. With improved putting, a six-event top-tier approach baseline, and odds drifting because of one poor major, Hoke labeled Thomas a classic ‘flop lag’ buy at Muirfield Village despite modest course history.

Alongside Schauffele, Justin Thomas lands on Farnsworth’s fade list. His total-driving metric is “not that great, especially recently,” and a low fairway-hit rate is lethal at Muirfield Village where thick rough shrinks GIRs to 54 %. Farnsworth believes JT will be stuck in defense mode too often to pay off his upper-tier price tag.

Jim Sannes said Justin Thomas is the runaway No. 2 play behind Scottie Scheffler on FanDuel this week. At an $11.4K salary, Thomas supplies the small-green skill set Muirfield Village demands: over a large sample he is “very, very good around the green” and continues to flash elite irons despite a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Sannes noted Thomas has gained strokes putting in recent starts and still posts positive off-the-tee numbers even without pinpoint accuracy. Because the analyst is less enamored with the rest of the $11K tier (Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood), he wants to jam Thomas into most non-Scheffler builds and is even tinkering with stars-and-scrubs constructions that squeeze in both Thomas and Scheffler.

Iain MacMillan advised betting Justin Thomas outright at +1800 for the Memorial. MacMillan pointed out that Thomas ranks second in the entire field in true strokes gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage. The writer believes the market is giving bettors a discount because Thomas missed the cut at the PGA Championship, a result MacMillan is willing to overlook given Thomas’s otherwise strong recent form. MacMillan emphasized Thomas’s elite iron play and expects his approach game to keep him in contention through the weekend at Muirfield Village.

Bill Rabinowitz recommended wagering on Justin Thomas at +1400 despite the missed cut at the PGA. He highlighted that in the four starts preceding that stumble Thomas finished runner-up twice and won the RBC Heritage in a playoff. While JT has been "shaky off the tee," Rabinowitz likes how his putter is carrying him—an asset on Jack Nicklaus’ slick greens. With Xander Schauffele still searching for form after an early-season injury, Rabinowitz sees Thomas as the best alternative to Scheffler at the top of the board.

Iain MacMillan said Justin Thomas is his favorite outright bet at +1800. Thomas ranks second in the entire Memorial field in True Strokes Gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage, something several peers near the top of the odds board cannot claim. MacMillan believes the number bakes in an overreaction to Thomas’ missed cut at the PGA Championship; prior to that hiccup, his form was trending up. Because Muirfield Village relentlessly rewards elite iron play, MacMillan expects Thomas’ approach game to keep him in contention all four days and sees the 18-1 price as a rare discount on a premier ball-striker.

Polzin advised fading Justin Thomas this week. Despite Thomas ranking well in the model’s key stats, he enters off a missed cut at the PGA Championship—an event that should have suited him—and has now missed the weekend in two of his past four starts. With Scheffler and Schauffele demanding salary, Polzin does not see the upside in paying a premium for Thomas’s volatile form, especially when safer options like Fleetwood or Connors exist in adjacent price ranges.

Rich Gehman expressed caution on Justin Thomas, grading him a "7 or 8 out of 10" instead of a slam-dunk play. Since Muirfield Village’s 2020 green and fairway redesign, Thomas has posted putting performances of –8.5, –2.5 and –3.5 strokes, far worse than his already-spotty baseline. Gehman is unconcerned about the missed cut at Valhalla but worries that the new bentgrass/poa mix still gives Thomas fits, making it hard to trust him fully at $10K-plus salaries despite strong non-major form (win at Harbour Town, two runner-ups).

Pat Mayo urged listeners to deploy Justin Thomas at the Memorial, noting his game has thrived in signature events but sputtered in majors. Thomas ranked top-5 tee-to-green at Valhalla yet bled 3.5 strokes with the putter, a familiar pattern that is less punitive on Muirfield Village’s slick Bentgrass greens. He owns a playoff loss here and has logged a win and a runner-up in his last two non-major signature starts. Mayo expects Thomas to be priced outside the Scheffler/Xander tier and come in under 10% DFS ownership, creating leverage for GPPs. He suggested combining an outright ticket with top-10 markets, banking on Thomas’s elite approach play to overcome the volatile putter.

Kalland picked Thomas outright at 22-1, citing his 2017 PGA victory at Quail Hollow and the fact he is "playing the most consistently great golf of just about anyone" right now. The combination of proven course success and current form makes JT his favorite betting ticket despite a loaded field.

McDonald labeled Thomas the big name most likely to disappoint. He noted JT is enduring the worst driving season of his career, a recipe for disaster at trouble-laden Quail Hollow. Over his last 11 majors Thomas owns five missed cuts and five finishes outside the top-30, reinforcing the fade despite his 2017 win here.

Robby Kalland recommended Justin Thomas at +2200 to lift the Wanamaker Trophy, pointing to his comfort level and past success on this specific track. Kalland reminded readers that the last time the PGA Championship visited Quail Hollow, Thomas won the event, and he views Thomas as 'playing the most consistently great golf of just about anyone in the world right now.' That recent form, paired with proven ability to handle the demanding closing stretch known as the Green Mile, convinced Kalland that Thomas offers strong betting value at 22-1 odds.

The SportsLine simulation still shows value on Justin Thomas at 22-1 (25-1 at Caesars) despite him climbing back to No. 5 in the OWGR. The model emphasized Thomas’ Quail Hollow comfort—he won the 2017 PGA here and has never finished worse than T26 in six career starts at the venue. Recent form is finally matching the course history: a win at the RBC Heritage snapped a lengthy drought and was sandwiched by two runner-up finishes, the latest coming last week at the Truist Championship. With confidence surging and a two-time PGA champ narrative in play, McClure advises keeping Thomas on outright cards before the number shortens.

Rick Gehman urged bettors to buy into Justin Thomas because this is the sharpest JT has looked since he first lifted the Wanamaker at Quail Hollow in 2017. Thomas ranks third on Tour in strokes-gained approach and sixth in scrambling over his last six starts, a critical combo on a 7,600-yard layout where Gehman projects players to miss roughly 50% of greens. Gehman reminded listeners Thomas gained 7.8 strokes around the green en route to victory here eight years ago and expects a similar winning score of –8 to –10 this week. With outright numbers hovering in the 35-to-40-1 range, Gehman is allocating a full-unit outright, adding top-10 bets, and using JT as a lower-rostered DFS pivot away from the Rory/Scottie/Bryson chalk.

Jason Sobel admitted he “cheated” on the under-the-radar exercise by choosing Justin Thomas, but said the data supports a punt on the two-time PGA winner. Thomas ranks third in strokes-gained approach and seventh around the green over the last six weeks, his best stretch since 2017—the year he first lifted the Wanamaker at Quail Hollow. Although he has not posted a top-20 in his last nine majors, Sobel believes returning to a comfortable venue and a rain-softened layout that accentuates iron play could unlock Thomas’s ceiling. With outright numbers hovering around 40-1, Sobel is adding JT to his betting card, playing him in top-10 markets, and targeting him as a leverage play in DFS builds that will be saturated with Rory and Scheffler exposure.

McClure added a position on Justin Thomas at 22-to-1, noting his model shows JT’s win probability higher than that price implies. Thomas is only $9,900 on DraftKings, giving roster flexibility compared with the $10,200 tag on Jon Rahm. McClure pointed out JT’s major-championship pedigree, improved approach numbers in recent starts, and favorable fit for Valhalla’s emphasis on long-iron play as reasons his simulations see value in the low-20s outright range.

Barnett chose Justin Thomas over Xander Schauffele for outright tickets, declaring J.T. the ‘smart money’ at the shared 22-1 number. Thomas is trending hard—victory at the RBC Heritage plus runner-up finishes at Valspar, Houston and last week’s limited-field event give him three seconds and a win in his last seven starts. His strokes-gained approach numbers have climbed from 37th to 6th on Tour since early March, and the return of his patented low-launch, high-spin draw fits Quail Hollow’s long iron windows. Barnett also highlighted Thomas’s historically elite par-5 scoring (third on Tour this season) as critical on Quail’s reachable par-5s. By contrast, he noted Schauffele is still shaking off a preseason rib injury—good results on no-cut setups (T-12 Valspar, T-11 last week) hide the fact that his approach play has slipped outside the top 40. With form pointing one way, Barnett is locking in Thomas and fading Xander at identical prices.

McBrayer urged bettors to stay away from Justin Thomas despite a win at RBC Heritage and runner-up at the Truist last week. He called JT’s driver "out of whack," noting repeated snap hooks on birdie holes Sunday that cost him the tournament. Quail Hollow will demand constant driver usage at full distance, and Thomas ranks outside the top 100 in fairways hit over his last eight starts. McBrayer warned that playing catch-up from the rough neutralizes Thomas’ elite short game and makes a missed cut a very live outcome—hardly what you want from a 22-to-1 ticket.

Brandon Gdula urged bettors to keep some bankroll free for in-tournament wagers rather than forcing pre-event numbers that feel a touch too short. He said the soggy Quail Hollow forecast makes round-to-round volatility likely and cited Rory McIlroy’s Masters roller-coaster as proof that an elite player can look unbeatable early, stumble, then still contend once odds lengthen. Gdula specifically mentioned Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele: he believes their current outright prices are fine but could drift to an even tastier range if either posts a "ho-hum" opening round. Because, in his words, "you can lose it on Thursday, but you can’t win it on Thursday," he recommends monitoring live markets—especially with FanDuel’s per-round profit boosts—to pounce on any Thursday-night or Friday-morning overreaction that pushes elite talents into value territory.

Brandon Gdula called Justin Thomas the best outright bet at current markets, loving the 20-1 number. Thomas has finished 2nd-Win-2nd in three of his last four starts outside Augusta, highlighted by an RBC Heritage playoff victory, and he ranks #1 Tee-to-Green and #2 in mathematical ceiling (overall strokes gained) over the past 50 rounds, trailing only Scottie Scheffler. Gdula added that Thomas’s putting—long his Achilles heel—has moved from liability to merely average, which is all he needs given elite ball-striking. Course history sweetens the deal: JT won the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow and has churned out four consecutive top-26 finishes here since, leveraging one of the Tour’s best around-the-green games on a venue where scrambling historically matters. In a week where the three favorites are sub-5-1, Gdula thinks Thomas offers the perfect mix of win equity and price and is the lone ticket he is locking in right now.

Brandon Gdula recommended an outright on Justin Thomas at 20-1, citing datagolf numbers that put JT No. 1 in the field in tee-to-green strokes gained over the last 50 rounds. The putter, normally the worry, has been 'vibing' in recent starts and Thomas brings elite Quail Hollow memories—he lifted the Wanamaker here in 2017. Current form is peaking again with finishes of 2nd, 1st and T-2 in his three most recent non-Augusta tournaments. Gdula concluded that Thomas’ statistical ceiling and proven comfort on the course make 20-1 too long.

DaSilva recommended Justin Thomas at +160 to place top-10. Thomas lifted the Wanamaker Trophy here in 2017 and is enjoying a resurgence in 2025 with a playoff win at the RBC Heritage and three additional runner-up finishes. That combination of stellar recent form and proven Quail Hollow success makes a top-10 ticket appealing, even if an outright win feels aggressive.

Guy Boston highlighted Justin Thomas at 22-1 as the first name he likes outside the superstar tier. JT has quietly posted 2nd (Valspar), T36 (Masters), 1st (RBC Heritage) and T2 (Truist) in his last four starts. Over his past five rounds he is gaining strokes off-the-tee despite modest accuracy, hitting 78 % GIR versus a Tour average 65.7 %, and is roughly field-average with the putter—good enough for him to win when his elite irons show. Boston notes Thomas is positive in the 195-plus approach window that Quail Hollow demands and believes a merely neutral putting week could deliver him a third major.

Mike McClure’s simulations point to Justin Thomas at 25-1 on Caesars as a bet worth firing. Thomas captured his first major at Quail Hollow in 2017 and won the PGA again in 2022; he has never finished outside the top-26 in six career starts on this course. After nearly three winless seasons, JT ended the drought with a victory at last month’s RBC Heritage and followed it with a T-2 at the Truist Championship, vaulting him back to No. 5 in the OWGR. With a win and two runner-ups in his last three outings, McClure projects Thomas’s red-hot iron play to translate into another serious run at Wanamaker glory, making 25-1 an attractive ticket.

Hochberg called Justin Thomas a “remarkable turnaround story” at $9,300. After last year’s greens woes, JT now ranks 23rd in SG: Putting and has climbed back into the OWGR top-5 thanks to an RBC Heritage win plus two runners-up (including the Truist). Driving accuracy—108th early in 2025—has ticked up, further boosting SG: Tee-to-Green. With prior Quail Hollow victory (2017 PGA) and recent form, Hochberg sees Thomas as a core Cash/GPP play who frees salary for another elite without sacrificing win equity.

Dave Tindall said Justin Thomas is the best value outside the big-three favorites for Quail Hollow and backed him each-way at 16/1 with 10 places paid. Tindall noted that JT is already a two-time PGA champion, one of those wins coming on this very course in 2017, and both triumphs were on tracks over 7,500 yards – the same length he will face this week (par-71, 7,626 yards). Thomas also scored 4 of 5 possible points at the 2022 Presidents Cup held at Quail Hollow and has never finished worse than 26th in his last four Wells Fargo starts here. Current form is peaking: a win at the RBC Heritage was followed by a solo 2nd at last week’s Truist Championship. Statistically he is 5th in Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee-to-Green this season with a dramatic turnaround on the greens, climbing from 174th in SG: Putting last year to 23rd this year. Tindall believes that combination of course history, elite iron play and suddenly competent putting gives Thomas a legitimate shot to outduel Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler for a historic third Wanamaker Trophy while still offering each-way safety at double-digit odds.

Ben Fawkes advised passing on Justin Thomas at 18-1. While Thomas owns two Wanamaker Trophies, the most recent in 2022, Fawkes emphasized the golfer’s erratic current form: five missed cuts in his last nine majors with only one top-20 finish during that stretch. The analyst noted that Thomas’ usually elite iron play has slipped outside the top 40 in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, making Quail Hollow a tough ask. Fawkes argued the betting market is pricing Thomas on reputation rather than recent performance and prefers allocating outrights elsewhere.

Matt Vincenzi backed Pat Mayo’s early position on Justin Thomas, calling JT the third-best player on the PGA Tour right now and a screaming value at 20-to-1. Vincenzi pointed out that Thomas is gaining strokes across every category this spring—particularly tee-to-green—while rivals Ludwig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, and Collin Morikawa sit ahead of him on most outright boards despite spottier form. With Valhalla rewarding creative shot-making and short-game touch (both Thomas strengths), and soft conditions neutralizing his occasional driving distance deficit versus Bryson and Rory, Vincenzi expects Thomas to contend and believes the books will close his number toward 14-to-1 by Wednesday. He is locking in the 20s now before the market corrects.

DaSilva endorsed Thomas at +1800, stressing that Quail Hollow is the exact site of JT’s first PGA title in 2017. Recent form screams bounce-back peak: a win at the RBC Heritage, runner-up finishes at both the Truist and Valspar Championships, and sustained tee-to-green consistency. With confidence in his ability to close majors on demanding layouts and proof he can attack Quail’s long par-3s, DaSilva expects Thomas to contend if his usually streaky putter merely behaves.

Jim Sannes argued that Justin Thomas is mis-tagged at just $10,600 on FanDuel—"way too low" given both recent form and Quail Hollow pedigree. Thomas has gained strokes on approach in nine straight measured events, owns a win at the 2017 PGA Championship on this very course, and ranks second only to Scottie Scheffler in Sannes’ ceiling metric over the past 50 rounds. By dropping nearly $1,000 below the Bryson/Xander tier, JT unlocks a Rory-plus-JT build with two comfortable $8k value plays, a roster construction Sannes says fits the slate perfectly. He plans to bypass the entire $11k range if he is not on Bryson, instead jumping straight to Thomas as the anchor of his mid-high tier exposure, projecting him for a top-5 DFS score 16% of the time—roughly double what his salary tier implies.

Brandon Gdula said Justin Thomas is the first click on his outright card at 20-to-1. Gdula noted Thomas has been the second-highest ceiling golfer on Tour over the last 50 rounds—only Scottie Scheffler shows a larger spike potential in his model—and Thomas pairs that with elite positive-variance tee-to-green numbers. The form box is fully checked: a win at the RBC Heritage, a solo second at last week’s Truist, and irons that have gained in nine consecutive measured events. Gdula reminded listeners that JT already owns a major win at Quail Hollow (the 2017 PGA) and sees the current price as a two-to-four-point discount that would disappear had Thomas converted last Sunday. In a major where distance and long-iron play matter most, Gdula is comfortable anchoring his card with Thomas and would still fire down to 16-to-1 if the market shortens.

Geoff Fienberg said he is happily swallowing the two-point difference between Justin Thomas (19-to-1) and the slightly longer numbers on Ludvig Aberg or Xander Schauffele because Thomas checks every Quail-Hollow box. Fienberg noted that JT’s current form is as hot as anyone not named Scottie Scheffler—finishes of 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in three of his last four starts—while gaining across every strokes-gained category. Although Thomas is not the longest hitter in the bomber pool, Fienberg emphasized that he still averages over 305 yards and therefore is not giving up meaningful distance. Quail history is another edge: Thomas won the 2017 PGA at this venue and has never finished outside the top 20 here in three subsequent trips. With the short game trending upward and the putter merely needing to be “good, not spike,” Fienberg labeled JT the safest way to attack the second tier before the number inevitably moves to the 16-to-1 range if casual money shows up late.

Pat Mayo said he is circling Justin Thomas as his primary outright bet for the 2025 PGA Championship because the two-time Wanamaker winner is peaking statistically yet still priced in the 19-to-22/1 range at most books. Mayo noted that Thomas has gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight starts, ranked near the top of the field in approach over the past 24 rounds, and validated the surge with a victory at the Truest event last week. Mayo believes public money flooding to Bryson DeChambeau has artificially held JT's number longer than Jon Rahm's in several markets, creating a buying window. Given Thomas’ elite driving distance, recent ball-striking profile, and proven PGA Championship pedigree (wins in 2017 and 2022), Mayo recommended locking in anything longer than 18/1 before the line inevitably shortens.

Kalland urged readers to back Justin Thomas at 22-1, arguing the two-time PGA champion "appears to be all the way back" after tumbling in the OWGR the last two years. Thomas gets the exact setup he wants: Quail Hollow, the course where he lifted his first Wanamaker in 2017. With his tee-to-green metrics finally trending upward and confidence restored, Kalland thinks another strong major showing would cement JT’s re-entry into the sport’s elite tier and give gamblers a solid mid-range outright.

Eric Polzin said Justin Thomas should be one of the first names clicked in both DFS builds and outright cards because the books and DraftKings algorithm clearly lagged on his resurgence. JT owns 18 consecutive made cuts and has rattled off 2nd-1st-2nd-9th finishes in his last four starts (runner-up last week, victory at RBC Heritage, runner-up at Valspar, 9th at Farmers). Polzin’s 9to5 model grades him 6th in recent form, 7th in statistical fit, and 10th in the specialist bucket for Quail Hollow— numbers usually attached to a $10K-plus salary, not the mid-$9K tag DraftKings hung on him. Course comfort is another box checked: Thomas has logged 21st, 14th, and 26th here despite poorer form in those seasons. With 22-1 still available at DraftKings, Polzin is locking Thomas in as his favorite mid-range outright and a tournament-winning ceiling play in DFS cash and GPPs alike.

Patrick McDonald dismissed Justin Thomas’ chances at the 2025 PGA, pointing to the two-time major winner’s lackluster history at Quail Hollow. McDonald noted that Thomas "has never played well here before" and said the overall vibe around JT this week feels off, making him an easy fade in both outright markets and DFS builds. With softer, longer conditions projected to magnify every mis-hit, McDonald prefers to allocate salary and betting units to players with proven Quail success rather than gamble on Thomas correcting his course-specific struggles on the fly.

Patrick McDonald listed Justin Thomas on his "can’t-win" board for Quail Hollow. McDonald said the overall "aura" around JT feels off right now and, more concretely, Thomas "has never played well here"—a direct reference to JT’s middling track record at Quail despite a PGA title elsewhere. With no signs of a form upswing heading into the week, McDonald is fading Thomas in all outright and placement markets, advising bettors to keep their money away until JT shows life at a friendlier venue.

Shane Bacon slotted Justin Thomas fourth on his power ranking and advised sprinkling outrights and top-10s because Valhalla is the same venue where JT captured the 2017 PGA. Bacon noted Thomas is finally stringing together "good, solid golf"— gaining strokes tee-to-green in five straight starts—and trusts his elite short-game to cover for the occasional loose driver. While Thomas has under-performed in majors since 2021, Bacon thinks familiar sightlines and positive memories at Valhalla are the ideal catalyst for a bounce-back, making current 25-1 odds too long.

Len Hochberg endorsed Justin Thomas at $9,900 as a high-ceiling play who should appear in several of his DraftKings builds. Thomas won the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow and recently snapped his victory drought at the RBC Heritage, propelling him back into the data-golf top-6 worldwide. The only lingering concern is accuracy off the tee, but Hochberg pointed out Thomas can mitigate that by shelving driver on certain holes, as he did during his Heritage win. The bigger storyline is the flatstick: Thomas is now top-40 in strokes-gained putting after years of languishing outside the top 100, turning his elite wedge game into actual birdies. Hochberg believes the returning course comfort plus a newfound putter make Thomas a strong DFS anchor and worth a sprinkle in the betting market despite slight fairway volatility.

Michael Harrison said Justin Thomas is a must-consider outright at +2200 because the Quail Hollow layout fits him like a glove. Thomas’ first major win (the 2017 PGA) came on this course and he is currently peaking: a win at the RBC Heritage sandwiched between two runner-up finishes, plus four top-2 results in his last four starts outside an average Masters showing. Harrison emphasized that only seven players have shorter odds despite few matching JT’s recent ball-striking form and proven ability to handle the pressure of the Wanamaker Trophy.

Jack Hirsh called Justin Thomas 'one of the hottest players in the game' since the Masters and urged bettors to consider him for outright tickets at Quail Hollow. Thomas snapped his win drought earlier in the spring and immediately followed it by threatening again at the Truist Championship, showing the iron play that made him a two-time PGA champion. Hirsh emphasized that Thomas has gained strokes tee-to-green in five straight starts and that his confidence is peaking at exactly the right time for another major run.

Valdera Morales recommended backing Justin Thomas for a top-10 (or outright) ticket at Quail Hollow, pointing to the Kentuckian’s renewed form and enviable course history. Thomas is +2100 to win after snapping a two-year drought with a 2025 PGA Tour victory and multiple course records. He owns two Wanamaker Trophies, one of which came at this very venue in 2017. The tout argued that familiarity with Quail Hollow’s driving corridors and slick greens, combined with Thomas’s recent ball-striking surge, makes him a high-probability top-10 finisher whose ceiling still includes a third PGA title.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model highlighted Justin Thomas as the best value on the early board at 21-1 to win the 2025 PGA Championship. The simulator loves his recent surge: first victory since 2022 at the RBC Heritage the week after Augusta, plus solo-second finishes at the American Express and Valspar. Thomas has fired four rounds of 66 or lower across his last four starts, signaling ceiling form. Quail Hollow comfort is another factor—he has finished 21st or better in his last two trips to the venue. With elite recent scoring, proven major pedigree, and a course fit, the model projects Thomas to contend deep into Sunday and labels him a must-sprinkle outright and top-10 wager before his odds shorten.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model highlighted Justin Thomas as the best value on the early board at 21-1 to win the 2025 PGA Championship. The simulator loves his recent surge: first victory since 2022 at the RBC Heritage the week after Augusta, plus solo-second finishes at the American Express and Valspar. Thomas has fired four rounds of 66 or lower across his last four starts, signaling ceiling form. Quail Hollow comfort is another factor—he has finished 21st or better in his last two trips to the venue. With elite recent scoring, proven major pedigree, and a course fit, the model projects Thomas to contend deep into Sunday and labels him a must-sprinkle outright and top-10 wager before his odds shorten.

Dom Cintorino flagged Justin Thomas at 22-25-1 as a live outright because the number finally drifted into the mid-20s and the venue lines up perfectly. Thomas won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow at –8 and just flashed form with a Sunday charge at the Truist Classic. Dom likes having tangible major-winning course history plus recent tee-to-green momentum, calling it the exact setup he and Matt waited for all season before re-investing in JT futures.

Bamford recommended an 18/1 each-way wager on Justin Thomas, noting that JT’s profile checks every Quail Hollow and PGA Championship box. Thomas already lifted the Wanamaker twice, including the 2017 edition on this very course, and his other PGA finishes include 6th at Baltusrol (2018) and 8th at Valhalla last year. He ranks 7th in career SG at Quail Hollow, gaining strokes in every category there. Thomas has won seven of his 16 PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass, with two of those coming on Champion Bermuda or Bermuda/Poa trivialis mixes identical to this week’s greens. Recent form is peaking: 2nd at Copperhead (Bermuda), 36th at the Masters, 1st at Harbour Town and 2nd last week at Philadelphia Cricket Club, where he finished 10th OTT, 6th APP and 2nd T2G while hitting 4th-most greens. Bamford argued Thomas’ combination of 300-plus carry distance, high apex trajectory and aggressive iron play is tailor-made for Quail’s long par-4s and elevated greens. With 40 % of historical SG at Quail coming on the putting surface, Bamford likes that JT’s flatstick has heated up (top-8 Putting Average at Harbour Town). In oppressive Carolina heat, on a track he loves, and at a major that rewards his aggressive style, Bamford sees Thomas as the most under-priced elite and a core outright/each-way target.

Matt Gannon is fading Justin Thomas despite the compelling storyline—past PGA winner at Quail and entering in strong form. Gannon sees Thomas’s $9K salary attracting heavy ownership yet offering little leverage relative to similarly priced options like Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, and Patrick Cantlay. In tournaments, Gannon prefers to pivot away from what he calls the “too obvious” play.

Rich Gehman is bullish on Justin Thomas after watching him follow a Harbour Town win with his most balanced stat profile in years at last week’s Truist event. Thomas gained heavily on approach, kept the driver in play, and relied only marginally on the putter—exactly the skill mix Quail Hollow rewards with wet, overseeded Bermuda rough. Throw in a sparkling course history that includes his 2017 PGA Championship victory and multiple top-15 finishes, and Gehman sees Thomas crafting a “mini-career run” right now. The two-time PGA champ profiles as a core DFS play and an attractive outright bet before his odds shorten further.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine model spots value in Justin Thomas at 21-1, projecting him to make a legitimate run at a third Wanamaker Trophy. The computer likes Thomas’s 2025 resurgence: a victory at the RBC Heritage the week after Augusta plus solo-second finishes at both the American Express and Valspar Championship. Thomas has gone 66 or lower in four of his last 16 competitive rounds, signaling the ceiling is back, and he owns two straight top-25s at Quail Hollow, a venue that rewards his high-ball flight. With McIlroy’s Grand Slam stealing headlines, Thomas’s odds have drifted, but the model believes he is close to peak form and should be in outright, each-way and DFS cores at anything longer than 20-1.

Pat Mayo endorsed Justin Thomas as the best odds-versus-win-equity play near the top of the board if sportsbooks keep him longer than 20-1. Mayo pointed out that Thomas has quietly gained strokes putting in four straight starts, topping +4.7 in three of them, including at Augusta. While Thomas continues to lose modestly off the tee, he still ranks 38th in this field in raw driving distance and Quail Hollow’s forgiving, ryegrass rough means misses are less punitive. Mayo cited Thomas’s 2017 PGA Championship victory on this very track and his recent win at the RBC Heritage as proof his all-around game is trending. He plans to pair Thomas with Bryson DeChambeau on outright cards, projects double-digit win equity at 22-1 or longer, and will anchor him in high-end DFS builds where ownership lags other favorites.