Iain MacMillan said Kurt Kitayama is mispriced at +2000 and should be the outright favorite for the Bank of Utah Championship. He noted Kitayama ranks second in the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last three months, owns a recent victory against a much stronger field at July’s 3M Open, and backed it up with a T9 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and a T19 at the BMW Championship. MacMillan added that Kitayama logged a T25 at Black Desert last season, giving him course reps that many contenders lack. In a shallow fall-swing field, those metrics convinced MacMillan to fire on the 20-1 number before it shortens.

Cody Williams sprinkled Kurt Kitayama Top-10 at +250, noting Kitayama ranks third in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, is the field’s best at converting birdie or better, and just won the 3M Open before adding a T9 in Memphis. Williams admitted the putter can be a "bugaboo" but believes as long as it’s not actively harmful, the tee-to-green dominance is too strong for Kitayama to finish outside the top fifth of a 49-man field.

For a long-shot ticket, Iain MacMillan grabbed Kurt Kitayama at +6000 after noticing the American is "fourth in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months" and has posted four Top-15 finishes in his last five starts, highlighted by a win at the 3M Open and a T9 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. MacMillan views that sustained ball-striking plus recent winning experience as a profile that should be nowhere near 60-1 in a 49-man field.

Kyle Murray suggested 0.25 units on Kurt Kitayama to win at +4500 and 1 unit on a Top-10 at +320. Kitayama surged into the FedExCup playoffs by winning the 3M Open a few weeks ago and followed it with a T-9 last week. Murray said his model grades Kitayama as a top-eight player in this field thanks to powerful driving and sharp ball-striking—two skills that fit the 7,601-yard Caves Valley layout. With form trending up and no cut to halt momentum, Murray believes the number offers solid value for bettors looking beyond the favorites.

Iain MacMillan recommended a wager on Kurt Kitayama at +6000, arguing the number does not reflect how well he is playing. Kitayama owns four top-15 finishes in his last five starts, highlighted by a victory at the 3M Open and a T9 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Over the past three months he ranks fourth in this field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green, and his 25.54% birdie or better rate is third on the entire Tour. With Caves Valley expected to reward aggressive scorers, MacMillan believes Kitayama has genuine win equity at 60-1.

Quoting Sports Illustrated’s betting preview, Giannotto presented Kurt Kitayama (+4500) as a mis-priced contender. Kitayama has finished inside the top-15 in four of his last five starts, a stretch that includes a 3M Open victory and a T-9 last week in Memphis. Over the past three months he ranks fourth in this field in true SG tee-to-green and sits third on Tour in birdie-or-better rate at 25.54%. Giannotto expects another low-scoring shootout at Caves Valley, a scenario that aligns perfectly with Kitayama’s recent scoring surge.

Brandon Gdula said Kurt Kitayama is a legitimate mid-tier DFS target at $8,400 for the BMW Championship. Lining FanDuel salary up against outright odds shows Kitayama as clearly under-priced. Gdula pointed to a +1.62 “relevant strokes-gained” mark that already bakes in his putting issues yet still ranks 11th in this field—one spot behind Cameron Young and one ahead of Harris English. Kitayama’s putter profiles 45th-percentile from short range and 8th-percentile from long range, but Gdula refuses to double-count that weakness because putting stabilizes slowly. The elite tee-to-green form gives him top-15 equity while freeing cap space for a Scheffler-McIlroy core build.

Calling him "as hot as anybody in the world," McBrayer loves Kitayama at +5000. The NorCal native has rocketed from outside the top-100 to inside the top-35 in three weeks. He’s top-tier in driving distance and long-iron proximity—ideal for Caves Valley’s 200-yard approach corridors. Bo labels him his "hammer of the week" and notes a strong finish could cement a Ryder Cup berth, adding motivational juice.

Matthew Wiley called Kurt Kitayama the single best value on both the betting board and DraftKings slate. He opened the show reminding listeners that "you’re going to have to get there with absolutely pure irons, wedges, and make some putts," and said Kitayama grades out No. 1 in that exact combination in his model. Wiley admitted the take isn’t revolutionary, but believes sportsbooks and DFS pricing still lag Kitayama’s true win probability and top-10 rate on a course that rewards precision from 125-175 yards. If Kitayama’s putter travels, Wiley thinks he can replicate the spike weeks that produced a win at Bay Hill and several top-10s in mixed-field events this season.

Matthew Wiley highlighted Kurt Kitayama as "underpriced" across betting and DFS markets, calling him the single best value in his model. Kitayama’s strength is laser-sharp long-iron play—a stat Wiley juiced this week because several 200-plus-yard approaches await. Kitayama has also gained strokes putting in three of his last four starts, giving him the spike-week ceiling needed to reach the −19 target score. Wiley is comfortable locking Kitayama into GPP builds and sprinkling outright exposure at 60-to-1 odds.

Matt Every noted that Kitayama opened 55-1 Monday but was bet down to 45-1 by show time and said he would still fire. Every believes the market hasn’t fully priced Kitayama’s ball-striking surge— he has gained 7.4 strokes tee-to-green per tournament since June— or the narrative juice of needing a late-season win to crack the Ryder Cup team. The Bet-The-Number model graded him No. 2 overall this week, and Every emphasized Kitayama’s elite long-iron play (Top-3 in approaches 175-225 yards season-to-date) matches the bulk of Wilmington’s par-4 approach distances. With confidence soaring after back-to-back top-12 finishes, Every is happy to ride the steam at 45-1.

Barnett flagged Kurt Kitayama at +300 for a top-10 as his favourite placement bet. With only 49 players teeing it up, he framed 3-1 as ‘better than most NFL money-line dogs’ and argued Kitayama’s recent form (T2, T11, T9 last three starts) plus 2nd-place ranking in the Bet-The-Number model makes the price a steal. Kitayama has gained at least 1.2 strokes on approach in five consecutive events and is 4th in total driving carry over the same span— two skills Barnett thinks are mandatory at Wilmington. He added the Ryder Cup carrot (Kitayama needs a win or high finish to impress captains) as an intangible that should keep the foot on the gas through Sunday.

Derek Farnsworth said Kitayama is his favorite salary-adjusted play on the slate. The win at the 3M, a T31, and last week’s T9 show a steady upward trend, and Kitayama has gained three or more strokes ball-striking in five straight starts. Farnsworth emphasized that Kitayama has already proven he can beat elite fields by winning a past signature event, giving him true upside at a mid-tier price. On a long course where tee-to-green excellence is projected to matter more than short-game magic, Farnsworth wants Kitayama on his main DFS builds.

Kenny Kim locked Kurt Kitayama in as his third Cash-Game Cornerstone. Kitayama’s length off the tee is a perfect match for the driver-heavy setup, but the real difference-maker is the putter—he has gained strokes putting in three consecutive events after it plagued him earlier in the season. Kitayama already owns a PGA-Tour win this year and has produced three top-10 finishes in his past four starts, giving Kenny the floor/ceiling mix he wants for double-ups and head-to-heads.

Byron Lindeque also bet Kurt Kitayama, grabbing 50-1. He tied Kitayama’s Bay Hill and 3M Open titles to the BMW layout, noting both wins demanded aggressive tee shots and a hot putter—“launch the nukes.” Byron thinks Kitayama’s recent victory shows he can stay hot through the Playoffs and sees him as an ideal fit for a potential Bethpage Ryder Cup down the road, giving added motivation. The unique combination of top-end distance and recent winning form makes the price too long in Byron’s view.

Kim fired on Kurt Kitayama at 40-1 (eight places) despite Kitayama’s reputation as a streaky putter. The flat stick has turned around, with positive SG:Putting in three straight starts and three top-10 finishes—including a win—over his last four. Kitayama has gained both off-the-tee and on approach in nine consecutive events and sits second in Kim’s overall model, dropping only to third when the model is filtered to easy-scoring courses. He is top-10 in proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards and 11th in birdie-or-better rate over his last 24 rounds. Kim thinks the current tee-to-green heater plus improved putting give Kitayama legitimate win equity on a course that rewards length.

Rick Gehman urged bettors to grab Kurt Kitayama tickets before markets tighten. Since the 3M Open, Kitayama owns three straight positive putting performances and just finished T9 at FedEx St. Jude while gaining heavily tee-to-green. Over the last 24 rounds he slots between Hideki Matsuyama and Akshay Bhatia in strokes-gained approach and ranks #2—behind only Scottie Scheffler—in Gehman’s custom BMW model that emphasized total SG (25%), distance (15%), long-term approach (25%), birdie-or-better (20%) and easy-course scoring (15%). Having already won the Arnold Palmer Invitational this season, Kitayama “could legit play spoiler for the Tour Championship” and is priced well below the elites, making him both an outright bet and a high-upside DFS option.

MacMillan recommended taking Kurt Kitayama at +6000, pointing to four top-15 finishes in his last five starts, highlighted by a victory at the 3M Open and a T9 last week in Memphis. Over the past three months Kitayama sits fourth in this BMW field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green, and he is third on the entire PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage (25.54%). Because Caves Valley historically rewards low scoring, MacMillan argued those stats give Kitayama legitimate win equity at a deep price.

Bamford advised taking Kurt Kitayama each-way at 45/1. Kitayama locked up 2026 Signature-event status by finishing 9th at the St. Jude, so he arrives pressure-free yet only 37th in the FedEx Cup, needing another strong week to reach East Lake. The analyst expects the bomber-friendly 7,600-yard Caves Valley to accentuate Kitayama’s length and recent form: he ranks top-10 both SG Tee-to-Green and SG Current Form over the past eight tournaments and captured the 3M Open four starts ago. With wide landing zones, firm new Pure Distinction bentgrass greens and two converted 525-yard par-4s, Bamford believes Kitayama’s high-ball flight and confident putter give him genuine win equity as an under-the-radar playoff sleeper.

Kitayama’s win at the 3M was backed up with a solid T31 at Wyndham despite a Saturday round where he lost two strokes to the field. Gehman pointed to the ball-striking turnaround that started at the Byron Nelson—arguably the chief issue earlier in the season. With the driver and irons trending up, Kitayama projects as a volatile but appealing tournament play in the 7k range.

Andy Lack doubled-down on fading Kurt Kitayama at Sedgefield. He said any power advantage the big-hitting Kitayama normally enjoys is erased on this short, positional track because "you just need to bunt it in the fairway." Lack added that Kitayama ranks far better with mid-to-long irons than with wedges, exactly the opposite of what Wyndham demands where 125-175-yard approaches dominate. Even though Kitayama sits 17th in Lack's model thanks to recent form, the combination of shaky fairway accuracy and sub-par wedge play makes him a no-go in outright markets and an easy cross-off in DFS builds.

Andy Lack advised fading Kurt Kitayama, explaining that Sedgefield’s claustrophobic fairways and sticky Bermuda rough punish Kitayama’s tendency to spray driver. Lack wants Kitayama only on setups where distance offers a tangible edge; here, driving accuracy has historically correlated far more strongly with success. Given that Kitayama ranks outside the top 120 on Tour in fairways hit and the course allows players to club down without losing yardage advantage, Lack will avoid him in both betting markets and DFS contests.

Rick Gehman likes Kurt Kitayama at $8,500 as a ceiling play for users chasing upside. Kitayama vaulted to 53rd in the FedEx Cup with his 3M win but still needs points, giving him clear motivation. The ball-striking surge is real: he gained 10 strokes tee-to-green at John Deere and 13 in the Minnesota victory, reminiscent of the 12-11-T12 monster stretch he posted last fall. Gehman believes Kitayama’s ability to spike 10+ strokes tee-to-green is exactly what wins large-field GPPs and trusts that the urgency of securing playoff status keeps him focused rather than complacent.

Reynolds took Kurt Kitayama at 40-to-1, highlighting a potent mix of course fit and motivation. Kitayama finished 6th here on debut and currently sits 110th in the FedEx Cup standings, forcing him to chase points in the season’s final sprint. Recent results—5th at John Deere and 14th at Barracuda—show the all-world ball-striker rounding into form. Reynolds thinks urgency plus a track that rewards distance will coax kitayama’s Sunday A-game and make 40-1 a bargain.

David Barnett identified Kurt Kitayama as a value outright at 40-1. Kitayama’s ball-striking numbers have rebounded, with three straight events gaining both off the tee and on approach. He finished T6 at this tournament last year and owns the high-speed driver-wedge combo that thrives on a bomber-friendly TPC Twin Cities layout featuring four par-5s and few long-iron approaches. Currently 110th in FedEx Cup points, Kitayama needs a big week to secure top-100 status, a motivational edge Barnett likes to target in late-season events. Between the trending irons, proven course fit, and added urgency, Barnett is betting an outright and sprinkling a top-10 prop.

Derek Farnsworth highlighted Kurt Kitayama as a boom-bust tournament play. After a sluggish season, Kitayama has rediscovered form with T14 and T5 finishes the last two weeks and owns a T6 here from 2023. Farnsworth trusts his ball-striking on a layout that rewards aggressive drivers but warns the putter must cooperate. If Kitayama gains strokes on the greens, Farnsworth thinks he can threaten the top of the leaderboard at modest ownership.

Matt Gannon warned bettors to steer clear of Kurt Kitayama at the 3M Open. Gannon expects a calm, no-wind week that will push the winning score past 20-under par. He dug through Kitayama’s decade-long record on the PGA, Korn Ferry and DP World Tours and discovered Kitayama has never reached 20-under in any event— even Kapalua, where birdies flow for everyone. Because TPC Twin Cities traditionally rewards long, straight drivers who convert every makeable birdie chance, Gannon believes Kitayama’s historical inability to keep pace in birdie-fests makes him a poor outright or DFS play despite the tempting 40-to-1 price his co-host mentioned.

Steve Bamford locked in Kurt Kitayama at 35/1, pointing to the Californian’s love of water-framed courses—3rd PGA National (2022), victory at Bay Hill (2023) and 2nd at Congaree’s CJ Cup—all tracks with 10-plus holes in play with water. TPC Twin Cities has 15. Kitayama is 110th in FedEx Cup standings and must bank a big finish. Form is flashing: 5th John Deere (4th SG Tee-to-Green), 14th Barracuda, and he rates 4th in Bamford’s 8-week SG Tee-to-Green tracker. He finished 6th here last season, ranking 2nd Tee-to-Green but losing 1.9 strokes putting. Bamford notes that winners here have averaged just +0.3 SG Putting, so a neutral putter could be enough for Kitayama to contend or win outright.

Bo McBrayer said he is firing on Kurt Kitayama at 65-1 because the Chico, California bomber has quietly turned into a birdie machine in 2025. Kitayama now ranks inside the top-15 in par-5 scoring and has tightened up his wedge numbers, two areas McBrayer believes decide shoot-outs at Detroit Golf Club. He noted Kitayama’s ball-striking has "vastly improved," flipping the narrative from grind-it-out specialist to someone who can win 22-under events when the putter merely cooperates. With a soft setup expected and odds likely to shorten, McBrayer is "loading up the wheelbarrow" on the outright ticket before Thursday.

Alex Blickle urged DFS players to stack Kurt Kitayama with fellow bomber Chris Gotterup in large-field GPPs. Both rank top-10 on TOUR in club-head speed and strokes-gained off the tee, giving them outsized upside if TPC Toronto turns into the full-send driver fest the touts expect. Blickle said distance rarely correlates lineup pieces the way weather stacks do in golf, but this is one of those weeks: if length proves more predictive than normal, both Kitayama and Gotterup simultaneously smash, creating unique lineup equity. With each priced in the low $8K/high $7K range and projected ownership under 10 %, the pairing fits perfectly alongside chalky Rory builds without duplicating too many lineups.

Andy Lack recommended using Kurt Kitayama as a contrarian DFS play, explaining that the American rates out as one of the field’s best from 200-plus yards yet continues to be under-rostered because he "messes up a lot of dumb stuff." Lack said Kitayama’s long-iron prowess alone can win tournaments—as it did at Bay Hill—while TPC Toronto’s straightforward par-5s and flat greens reduce the damage from his occasional blow-ups. Sharp books like Bookmaker routinely price him lower than his results, a signal Lack trusts when chasing ceiling in GPPs. At a mid-7k DraftKings salary and ownership projections under 8 percent, Lack views Kitayama as the ideal leverage play for line-ups built around Pendrith or Burns.

McBrayer is grabbing Kurt Kitayama at +5000, pointing to a weather forecast that calls for 40-50% chance of rain over the first three days. If the course softens, Kitayama’s top-10 driving distance and strong par-4 scoring become even more valuable on a 7,400-yard par-70 that will feel long to shorter hitters. The NorCal bomber ranks inside the top-25 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach this season; only the notoriously cold putter drags down his overall numbers. Bo thinks the upside flashed at Charles Schwab—where Kitayama rolled in more putts than usual—is repeatable here, making 50-1 an appealing outright number.

Pat Mayo pitched Kurt Kitayama as a sub-$6,500 DraftKings dart and first-round-leader stab rather than a full-tournament outright. Kitayama missed the cut in each of his last three Memorial starts, but Mayo highlighted the 3.6 strokes he gained on approach at the PGA Championship as evidence the irons are waking up. Kitayama is a former signature-event winner and tends to pop on optimizer models that lean on approach, par-5 scoring, and sand saves—three stats Mayo is weighting heavily. His bent-grass putting splits are neutral, which Mayo sees as a relative win for a historically streaky putter. With books certain to post triple-digit win odds and his salary buried among weak long-shots, Mayo likes the volatile profile for FRL bets and low-owned GPP exposure where a single spike round can pay off.

Jason Rouslin said Kurt Kitayama is the play in the Snedeker/Kitayama/Power first-round 3-ball because the ball-striking finally looks elite again. Kitayama has gained heavily with his irons in back-to-back starts, including +3.5 strokes on approach at last week’s PGA Championship. Rouslin noted that the shaky putter masked how well Kitayama struck it, while Seamus Power has relied almost exclusively on hot putting and Brandt Snedeker still is not competing at their level. He assigned a 7-of-9 confidence grade and expects the superior tee-to-green profile to prevail over 18 holes.

Guy Boston recommended revisiting Kurt Kitayama after the mercurial bomber finally gained strokes across the board en route to a T5 at the CJ Cup. Boston conceded Kitayama has been "so, so, so volatile" in 2025 but highlighted his two-year PGA Championship track record of T26 and T4 as evidence he can spike in this major setup. Kitayama ranks top-25 in strokes-gained off-the-tee over his last 50 rounds, a key edge on the 7,500-yard Quail Hollow layout, and historically finds another gear in tough scoring conditions. Boston believes if the irons and putter approach field average—similar to his CJ Cup performance—Kitayama’s driving gives him legitimate top-10 equity at 110-1 outright and attractive top-20 pricing.

Dave Tindall labeled Kurt Kitayama a live long-shot at 150/1 with 12 places available, emphasizing the need for sheer power around the 7,626-yard Quail Hollow layout. Kitayama sits 6th in Driving Distance and 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, and rain in the lead-up could make that length even more advantageous. He has demonstrated specific PGA Championship upside with a surprise T4 at Oak Hill in 2023 and a respectable 26th at Valhalla in 2024—his two best major results. Momentum is positive after a 5th-place finish two weeks ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (7,569 yards) where he ranked 19th Off-the-Tee, 19th in Approach and 8th Tee-to-Green. Tindall reminded readers that Kitayama’s victory at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational proved he can topple elite fields when the driver cooperates. With bookmakers paying 12 places, Tindall sees the bomber profile and recent ball-striking surge as enough to justify a speculative each-way ticket at triple-digit odds.

Pat Mayo flagged Kurt Kitayama at an eye-popping 300-1 as the best ‘fun-money’ dart on the board and a legitimate top-20 play. Kitayama still sits top-10 in driving distance and already owns a signature win at Bay Hill—another long, demanding Florida Bermuda track—proving he can close against elite fields. Mayo acknowledged the brutal iron slump Kitayama suffered from Honda through Valero but noted the approach play returned at the "bunny ranch," where he hit a slew of greens in regulation while continuing to drive it 320-plus. With Quail Hollow projected to reward bombers and a winning score near –8, Mayo believes Kitayama’s driver-putter ceiling is perfectly aligned for an each-way sprinkle and a plus-money top-20 before the market realizes the form has bounced back.

Cintorino grabbed Kurt Kitayama at 100-1 with a top-6 each-way, calling the number "flat-out wrong" given Kitayama’s proven closing ability. He reminded listeners that Kitayama gained an eye-popping 17 strokes ball-striking at the Black Desert Championship—on a similarly wide, low-rough layout that turned into a birdie spree. The Byron Nelson asks for the same tee-to-green template: send it long and stick wedges. With a TOUR victory at API and multiple runner-ups in strong fields, Kitayama has far more win equity than most names in this price band. Cintorino recommends sprinkling outrights and top-10/20 props before the market corrects.

Patrick McDonald said bettors should short Collin Morikawa in outright and DFS captain markets at the Zurich Classic because Kurt Kitayama’s 2024 form is dragging the pairing’s ceiling to the floor. McDonald reminded listeners that Kitayama has yet to record a single top‑30 finish this calendar year despite a "solid fall," making him one of the coldest ball‑strikers in the field. Morikawa might be, in McDonald’s words, “the second‑best player here behind Rory,” but foursomes formats magnify the weaker partner and leave little room for Morikawa to mask Kitayama’s struggles. McDonald filed the duo under his "better off playing his own ball" category and advised fading them in head‑to‑head team matchups and removing Morikawa from DFS cores unless salaries dramatically fall.

Brandon Gdula noted that if he dials down the extra variance he normally injects for the Zurich’s two rounds of alternate shot and treats TPC Louisiana like a standard stroke‑play event, the Collin Morikawa‑Kurt Kitayama team grades out fairly at 12‑to‑1. In that reduced‑volatility scenario their combined six‑month true strokes‑gained profile—driven by Morikawa’s elite irons and Kitayama’s streaky distance—puts them on par with what his model would label break‑even odds. Gdula still prefers value plays further down the board because he believes the format inherently increases randomness, but he told listeners that backing Morikawa‑Kitayama is defensible for anyone who thinks the market has already priced in enough chaos.

Brandon Gdula warned listeners to pass on the 12‑to‑1 outright number for Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama. Gdula said the price still bakes in Morikawa’s elite profile while ignoring that Kitayama’s ball‑striking has cratered over the past two months. Kitayama has slipped outside the top‑80 in both strokes‑gained off‑the‑tee and approach during his last 20 measured rounds, turning what was once a balanced pairing into a lopsided one. When Gdula runs his six‑month true strokes‑gained averages through his win‑sim model, the duo should be closer to 15‑to‑1, leaving no edge at current odds. He added that alternate‑shot amplifies the weaker partner’s flaws, making Kitayama’s slump an automatic red flag in a high‑variance two‑round‑before‑the‑cut setup.

Mike McClure's SportsLine simulation faded the Morikawa/Kitayama pairing despite their +1400 price tag. The model has them barely sneaking into the top‑five after a disappointing T‑23 last year that stemmed from alternate‑shot struggles (even‑par 70 in Rounds 2 and 4). Morikawa still stripes it tee‑to‑green but ranks 85th in strokes gained: putting (0.046) and 87th in one‑putt percentage (41.07%), a red flag in a team event where birdies are mandatory. Kitayama’s ball‑striking has been off all season—116th in GIR (64.63%), 133rd in SG: approach (‑0.240) and an alarming 159th in driving accuracy (53.88%). McClure’s model believes those weaknesses give bettors little edge at short odds and advises looking elsewhere for outright tickets.

For Round 1, Parker played Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama Top 20 at +110 on bet365. Morikawa is fourth on tour in birdie‑or‑better rate, ninth in bogey avoidance, and ranks first in the field in true strokes gained on approach and second tee‑to‑green—an ideal profile for the opening four‑ball format. Kitayama has struggled in 2025 but was 27th in adjusted scoring last season and owns three prior trips here, including a T23 with Morikawa last year. Parker believes Morikawa’s precision can drag Kitayama along for a hot Thursday start.

McDonald advised caution on the 12‑1 Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama partnership. He loves their tee‑to‑green ceiling in foursomes but points out that both players have struggled to convert birdie chances all season. Morikawa debuted a new putter at the RBC Heritage with mixed results, while Kitayama hasn’t cracked a top‑30 in 2025. Given that four‑ball traditionally demands 8‑10 birdies per round to contend, McDonald argues bettors should avoid this duo until the putters heat up.

Polzin advised passing on Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama despite the marquee name. His blended model grades them only 9th overall, yet sportsbooks list them 12‑to‑1—the same tier as far stronger pairings. Morikawa grades out 2nd in strokes‑gained metrics, but Kitayama’s recent form has cratered (outside the top‑50 in form rank), and the duo could not crack the top‑20 here last year. With 70 % of the field missing the cut, Polzin views their salary and outright number as dead money compared to similarly priced teams with two in‑form golfers.

Kenny Kim urged listeners to skip the $10,700 Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama pairing on DraftKings and short any head‑to‑head markets that price them like true elites. Kim said Morikawa’s form has cratered since Augusta—where he lost strokes with every club—and last week’s snow‑man on an otherwise benign par‑4 shows the iron game is nowhere near its usual level. Kim added that two separate sources inside the Morikawa camp told him the former prodigy has become "impossible to coach," routinely brushing off swing‑fix suggestions and alienating the people paid to help him. Kim compared the vibe to Bryson’s 2020 diva phase and warned that attitude problems plus poor ball‑striking is a lethal combo in a partner event where chemistry matters. With several better‑balanced teams available for less salary, Kim is completely out on Morikawa/Kitayama in both DFS and placement props.

Although Collin Morikawa looked "pathetic" at Harbour Town and Kurt Kitayama has been ice‑cold, Gannon likes the $10.7K Vegas training‑partners as a contrarian spend‑up. DraftKings still installed them as the No. 2‑priced team, a signal to Gannon that the algorithm respects their talent. The pair regularly practices together at Shadow Creek and Summit Club, giving them rare chemistry for a one‑off team event. With the field flocking elsewhere, Gannon sees extremely low ownership and a path to first‑place leverage if Morikawa’s elite iron play clicks for even one round.

Gehman advised fading the $10.6K Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama duo, arguing the price tag is unjustified given current form and event history. Kitayama "has not been as sharp" in recent starts, while Morikawa’s Zurich resume is surprisingly poor: a missed cut with Viktor Hovland, a T29 with Max Homa and only one finish better than T23 despite entering each year on a top‑three pre‑tournament roster. Gehman prefers either paying all the way up for the Rory/Lowry hammer or dropping into cheaper volatility plays, noting that favorites rarely deliver here and the unique team format magnifies any cold stretches.

Bo McBrayer advised passing on Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kittiyama at +1200 despite their elite tee‑to‑green reputations. He questioned who will actually make putts, stressing that TPC Louisiana’s alternate‑shot format punishes teams that can’t scramble when one player puts the other in trouble. McBrayer added that the duo’s Zurich resumes are mediocre—Morikawa’s best finish is 23rd in four starts while Kittiyama has never cracked the top‑18. With no recent spike weeks on the greens from either and a price barely longer than chalk, he believes their ceiling is overstated and prefers to allocate outrights to teams with proven birdie conversion.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model faded Collin Morikawa despite his short 14‑1 price, projecting the two‑time major champ to barely squeak into the top 10. The model cited an 18‑month win drought, plus Morikawa’s disappointing finishes in the last three majors (T14 at the 2025 Masters, no top‑10s in that stretch), matching the longest cold spell of his career. Quail Hollow’s 7,500‑plus yards amplify Morikawa’s driving‑distance deficiency—he ranks 163rd of 183 qualified players—while his short‑game woes continue with a 128th ranking in total putting. Those statistical red flags led the model to recommend fading Morikawa in outright tickets and limiting DFS exposure at his elevated salary.

Gregory cautioned bettors against backing the No. 2 betting option of Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama at +1,200. Morikawa limped to a T54 finish last week at Harbour Town, while Kitayama has not placed better than T33 in any start since October. Given the duo’s shaky form and the large gap to their posted price, Gregory suggested their odds are too short and represent an opportunity to fade in head‑to‑head markets or outright cards.