Pat Mayo pitched Kurt Kitayama as a sub-$6,500 DraftKings dart and first-round-leader stab rather than a full-tournament outright. Kitayama missed the cut in each of his last three Memorial starts, but Mayo highlighted the 3.6 strokes he gained on approach at the PGA Championship as evidence the irons are waking up. Kitayama is a former signature-event winner and tends to pop on optimizer models that lean on approach, par-5 scoring, and sand saves—three stats Mayo is weighting heavily. His bent-grass putting splits are neutral, which Mayo sees as a relative win for a historically streaky putter. With books certain to post triple-digit win odds and his salary buried among weak long-shots, Mayo likes the volatile profile for FRL bets and low-owned GPP exposure where a single spike round can pay off.

Jason Rouslin said Kurt Kitayama is the play in the Snedeker/Kitayama/Power first-round 3-ball because the ball-striking finally looks elite again. Kitayama has gained heavily with his irons in back-to-back starts, including +3.5 strokes on approach at last week’s PGA Championship. Rouslin noted that the shaky putter masked how well Kitayama struck it, while Seamus Power has relied almost exclusively on hot putting and Brandt Snedeker still is not competing at their level. He assigned a 7-of-9 confidence grade and expects the superior tee-to-green profile to prevail over 18 holes.

Guy Boston recommended revisiting Kurt Kitayama after the mercurial bomber finally gained strokes across the board en route to a T5 at the CJ Cup. Boston conceded Kitayama has been "so, so, so volatile" in 2025 but highlighted his two-year PGA Championship track record of T26 and T4 as evidence he can spike in this major setup. Kitayama ranks top-25 in strokes-gained off-the-tee over his last 50 rounds, a key edge on the 7,500-yard Quail Hollow layout, and historically finds another gear in tough scoring conditions. Boston believes if the irons and putter approach field average—similar to his CJ Cup performance—Kitayama’s driving gives him legitimate top-10 equity at 110-1 outright and attractive top-20 pricing.

Dave Tindall labeled Kurt Kitayama a live long-shot at 150/1 with 12 places available, emphasizing the need for sheer power around the 7,626-yard Quail Hollow layout. Kitayama sits 6th in Driving Distance and 10th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season, and rain in the lead-up could make that length even more advantageous. He has demonstrated specific PGA Championship upside with a surprise T4 at Oak Hill in 2023 and a respectable 26th at Valhalla in 2024—his two best major results. Momentum is positive after a 5th-place finish two weeks ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson (7,569 yards) where he ranked 19th Off-the-Tee, 19th in Approach and 8th Tee-to-Green. Tindall reminded readers that Kitayama’s victory at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational proved he can topple elite fields when the driver cooperates. With bookmakers paying 12 places, Tindall sees the bomber profile and recent ball-striking surge as enough to justify a speculative each-way ticket at triple-digit odds.

Pat Mayo flagged Kurt Kitayama at an eye-popping 300-1 as the best ‘fun-money’ dart on the board and a legitimate top-20 play. Kitayama still sits top-10 in driving distance and already owns a signature win at Bay Hill—another long, demanding Florida Bermuda track—proving he can close against elite fields. Mayo acknowledged the brutal iron slump Kitayama suffered from Honda through Valero but noted the approach play returned at the "bunny ranch," where he hit a slew of greens in regulation while continuing to drive it 320-plus. With Quail Hollow projected to reward bombers and a winning score near –8, Mayo believes Kitayama’s driver-putter ceiling is perfectly aligned for an each-way sprinkle and a plus-money top-20 before the market realizes the form has bounced back.

Cintorino grabbed Kurt Kitayama at 100-1 with a top-6 each-way, calling the number "flat-out wrong" given Kitayama’s proven closing ability. He reminded listeners that Kitayama gained an eye-popping 17 strokes ball-striking at the Black Desert Championship—on a similarly wide, low-rough layout that turned into a birdie spree. The Byron Nelson asks for the same tee-to-green template: send it long and stick wedges. With a TOUR victory at API and multiple runner-ups in strong fields, Kitayama has far more win equity than most names in this price band. Cintorino recommends sprinkling outrights and top-10/20 props before the market corrects.

Patrick McDonald said bettors should short Collin Morikawa in outright and DFS captain markets at the Zurich Classic because Kurt Kitayama’s 2024 form is dragging the pairing’s ceiling to the floor. McDonald reminded listeners that Kitayama has yet to record a single top‑30 finish this calendar year despite a "solid fall," making him one of the coldest ball‑strikers in the field. Morikawa might be, in McDonald’s words, “the second‑best player here behind Rory,” but foursomes formats magnify the weaker partner and leave little room for Morikawa to mask Kitayama’s struggles. McDonald filed the duo under his "better off playing his own ball" category and advised fading them in head‑to‑head team matchups and removing Morikawa from DFS cores unless salaries dramatically fall.

Brandon Gdula noted that if he dials down the extra variance he normally injects for the Zurich’s two rounds of alternate shot and treats TPC Louisiana like a standard stroke‑play event, the Collin Morikawa‑Kurt Kitayama team grades out fairly at 12‑to‑1. In that reduced‑volatility scenario their combined six‑month true strokes‑gained profile—driven by Morikawa’s elite irons and Kitayama’s streaky distance—puts them on par with what his model would label break‑even odds. Gdula still prefers value plays further down the board because he believes the format inherently increases randomness, but he told listeners that backing Morikawa‑Kitayama is defensible for anyone who thinks the market has already priced in enough chaos.

Brandon Gdula warned listeners to pass on the 12‑to‑1 outright number for Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama. Gdula said the price still bakes in Morikawa’s elite profile while ignoring that Kitayama’s ball‑striking has cratered over the past two months. Kitayama has slipped outside the top‑80 in both strokes‑gained off‑the‑tee and approach during his last 20 measured rounds, turning what was once a balanced pairing into a lopsided one. When Gdula runs his six‑month true strokes‑gained averages through his win‑sim model, the duo should be closer to 15‑to‑1, leaving no edge at current odds. He added that alternate‑shot amplifies the weaker partner’s flaws, making Kitayama’s slump an automatic red flag in a high‑variance two‑round‑before‑the‑cut setup.

Mike McClure's SportsLine simulation faded the Morikawa/Kitayama pairing despite their +1400 price tag. The model has them barely sneaking into the top‑five after a disappointing T‑23 last year that stemmed from alternate‑shot struggles (even‑par 70 in Rounds 2 and 4). Morikawa still stripes it tee‑to‑green but ranks 85th in strokes gained: putting (0.046) and 87th in one‑putt percentage (41.07%), a red flag in a team event where birdies are mandatory. Kitayama’s ball‑striking has been off all season—116th in GIR (64.63%), 133rd in SG: approach (‑0.240) and an alarming 159th in driving accuracy (53.88%). McClure’s model believes those weaknesses give bettors little edge at short odds and advises looking elsewhere for outright tickets.

For Round 1, Parker played Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama Top 20 at +110 on bet365. Morikawa is fourth on tour in birdie‑or‑better rate, ninth in bogey avoidance, and ranks first in the field in true strokes gained on approach and second tee‑to‑green—an ideal profile for the opening four‑ball format. Kitayama has struggled in 2025 but was 27th in adjusted scoring last season and owns three prior trips here, including a T23 with Morikawa last year. Parker believes Morikawa’s precision can drag Kitayama along for a hot Thursday start.

McDonald advised caution on the 12‑1 Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama partnership. He loves their tee‑to‑green ceiling in foursomes but points out that both players have struggled to convert birdie chances all season. Morikawa debuted a new putter at the RBC Heritage with mixed results, while Kitayama hasn’t cracked a top‑30 in 2025. Given that four‑ball traditionally demands 8‑10 birdies per round to contend, McDonald argues bettors should avoid this duo until the putters heat up.

Polzin advised passing on Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama despite the marquee name. His blended model grades them only 9th overall, yet sportsbooks list them 12‑to‑1—the same tier as far stronger pairings. Morikawa grades out 2nd in strokes‑gained metrics, but Kitayama’s recent form has cratered (outside the top‑50 in form rank), and the duo could not crack the top‑20 here last year. With 70 % of the field missing the cut, Polzin views their salary and outright number as dead money compared to similarly priced teams with two in‑form golfers.

Kenny Kim urged listeners to skip the $10,700 Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama pairing on DraftKings and short any head‑to‑head markets that price them like true elites. Kim said Morikawa’s form has cratered since Augusta—where he lost strokes with every club—and last week’s snow‑man on an otherwise benign par‑4 shows the iron game is nowhere near its usual level. Kim added that two separate sources inside the Morikawa camp told him the former prodigy has become "impossible to coach," routinely brushing off swing‑fix suggestions and alienating the people paid to help him. Kim compared the vibe to Bryson’s 2020 diva phase and warned that attitude problems plus poor ball‑striking is a lethal combo in a partner event where chemistry matters. With several better‑balanced teams available for less salary, Kim is completely out on Morikawa/Kitayama in both DFS and placement props.

Although Collin Morikawa looked "pathetic" at Harbour Town and Kurt Kitayama has been ice‑cold, Gannon likes the $10.7K Vegas training‑partners as a contrarian spend‑up. DraftKings still installed them as the No. 2‑priced team, a signal to Gannon that the algorithm respects their talent. The pair regularly practices together at Shadow Creek and Summit Club, giving them rare chemistry for a one‑off team event. With the field flocking elsewhere, Gannon sees extremely low ownership and a path to first‑place leverage if Morikawa’s elite iron play clicks for even one round.

Gehman advised fading the $10.6K Collin Morikawa / Kurt Kitayama duo, arguing the price tag is unjustified given current form and event history. Kitayama "has not been as sharp" in recent starts, while Morikawa’s Zurich resume is surprisingly poor: a missed cut with Viktor Hovland, a T29 with Max Homa and only one finish better than T23 despite entering each year on a top‑three pre‑tournament roster. Gehman prefers either paying all the way up for the Rory/Lowry hammer or dropping into cheaper volatility plays, noting that favorites rarely deliver here and the unique team format magnifies any cold stretches.

Bo McBrayer advised passing on Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kittiyama at +1200 despite their elite tee‑to‑green reputations. He questioned who will actually make putts, stressing that TPC Louisiana’s alternate‑shot format punishes teams that can’t scramble when one player puts the other in trouble. McBrayer added that the duo’s Zurich resumes are mediocre—Morikawa’s best finish is 23rd in four starts while Kittiyama has never cracked the top‑18. With no recent spike weeks on the greens from either and a price barely longer than chalk, he believes their ceiling is overstated and prefers to allocate outrights to teams with proven birdie conversion.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation model faded Collin Morikawa despite his short 14‑1 price, projecting the two‑time major champ to barely squeak into the top 10. The model cited an 18‑month win drought, plus Morikawa’s disappointing finishes in the last three majors (T14 at the 2025 Masters, no top‑10s in that stretch), matching the longest cold spell of his career. Quail Hollow’s 7,500‑plus yards amplify Morikawa’s driving‑distance deficiency—he ranks 163rd of 183 qualified players—while his short‑game woes continue with a 128th ranking in total putting. Those statistical red flags led the model to recommend fading Morikawa in outright tickets and limiting DFS exposure at his elevated salary.

Gregory cautioned bettors against backing the No. 2 betting option of Collin Morikawa and Kurt Kitayama at +1,200. Morikawa limped to a T54 finish last week at Harbour Town, while Kitayama has not placed better than T33 in any start since October. Given the duo’s shaky form and the large gap to their posted price, Gregory suggested their odds are too short and represent an opportunity to fade in head‑to‑head markets or outright cards.

Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation faded the Morikawa/Kitayama pairing and projected them to barely sneak into the top‑five, well short of their +1200 odds. The model flagged several red‑flags: last year the duo finished a disappointing T‑23, losing ground in alternate‑shot with rounds of 70 on both Friday and Sunday. Morikawa is still an elite ball‑striker, but his flatstick is ice‑cold—he sits 85th on Tour in strokes gained: putting (+0.046) and 87th in one‑putt rate (41.1%). Kitayama’s tee‑to‑green profile is even shakier, ranking 116th in GIR (64.6%), 133rd in strokes gained: approach (‑0.240) and 159th in driving accuracy (53.9%). With alternate‑shot play exposing weak iron games and shaky putting, the model recommends fading this popular team in outright and placement markets.

Pat Mayo cautioned against playing Kurt Kitayama despite his repeated appearance in optimizer builds. Mayo noted Kitayama hasn't finished better than T33 in 2025, with his previous strong showings occurring at easier courses against weaker competition during the swing season. Mayo compared Kitayama's scenario to Anders Albertson years ago, whose single strong performance kept him inflated in projections for weeks but never matched future results. He emphasized that Kitayama's past heater in weaker fields is misleading and his current form badly translates to tougher fields like the one at the Houston Open. Mayo advocated for manually adjusting or disregarding optimizer-driven exposure to Kitayama this week.

Derek Farnsworth expressed deep concern regarding Kurt Kitayama, despite the potential theoretical fit from a 'bomber' standpoint. Farnsworth noted struggling mightily when rostering Kitayama this season (0-for-6), and points to a recent dramatic decline in Kitayama's iron play. After previously ranking as a top-10 iron player, Kitayama has plummeted to 81st in this field. Given this concerning form and inconsistency, Farnsworth strongly advises caution and is personally choosing to exclude Kitayama entirely from his DFS player pool this week.

Matthew MacKay recommended Kurt Kitayama as a solid DFS option for the Texas Children's Houston Open, citing promising statistics despite Kitayama's recent struggles, which include missing three of his last four cuts. Kitayama ranks 12th in driving distance, 30th in strokes gained off-the-tee, and 34th in proximity to the hole, all key metrics for success at Memorial Park Golf Course. Additionally, he excels at approach shots over 200 yards, a frequent scenario at this course with its lengthy par 3s. With a discounted DraftKings salary of $7,600, MacKay believes Kitayama offers a strong DFS upside this week.

Andy Lack is fading Kurt Kitayama in DFS due to persistent underperformance despite intriguing ball-striking upside. Although Kitayama once showcased significant talent, winning a signature event at Bay Hill and strong approaches earlier, he hasn't finished inside top 30 at all this season. Lack has lost faith in Kitayama’s potential turning into actual DFS returns, asserting that his DFS price hasn't yet caught up to disappointing recent results, making him a poor fantasy option this week.

Bo McBrayer acknowledged Kurt Kitayama as an excellent fit for Memorial Park but expressed frustration over Kitayama's severe putting struggles. McBrayer observed that Kitayama has missed numerous short birdie and par putts this season, clearly impacting his results. While Kitayama's ball striking and skill in tough conditions remain impressive, the persistent inability to sink putts prevents McBrayer from betting on him. McBrayer suggested Kitayama might consider adopting alternative putting styles or approaches—such as a broomstick type putter or AimPoint—to address these critical shortfalls, much like the improvement seen recently by Akshay Bhatia, who dramatically boosted his putting by switching to a long putter.

John Haslbauer sees Kurt Kitayama as a strong candidate for success at Memorial Park Golf Course due to standout ball striking and proficiency with long irons, key metrics for this challenging track. Kitayama ranks within the top ten of strokes gained approach particularly from beyond 200 yards, a critical component at Memorial Park with its lengthy par-4s and par-3s. Haslbauer emphasized Memorial Park’s difficulty and reliance on strong ball-striking skill sets along with bogey avoidance. Kitayama's profile fits these demands perfectly, marking him as an undervalued asset in DFS lineups and betting markets, particularly given the attention likely paid to more prominent names.

Rick Gehman noted Kurt Kitayama popped as the second-highest golfer in his statistical model heading into the Valspar Championship, driven by recent positive indicators. Although hesitant about fully embracing Kitayama due to inconsistent recent performances, Gehman referenced Kitayama's improved putting at The Players Championship, gaining strokes putting in each of his last three rounds. Gehman emphasized how Kitayama's overall strong driving ability adds upside at a tree-lined course like Innisbrook, but felt caution was warranted due to no substantial course history. Still, Gehman acknowledged Kitayama's strong metrics make him tempting at DFS this week, though he personally preferred one more week of proof.

Geoff Ulrich highlights Kurt Kitayama as a tournament DFS play due to his potential suitability for challenging conditions expected at Copperhead for the Valspar Championship. Kitayama has previously won on similarly challenging Florida setups and enters the Valspar Championship ranked highly in key statistical areas, including 14th in strokes gained approach and 7th in strokes gained off-the-tee. His recent form also shows improvements on the greens, evidenced by gaining 1.9 strokes putting at Sawgrass for his best putting week yet. Given his strong statistical profile and proven success in similar conditions, Ulrich deems Kitayama a potentially impactful DFS play this week.