Elliott Heath labeled Matteo Manassero a live outsider at +7500 because precision matters more than power at Rinkven. The Italian has made 7 of 10 PGA Tour cuts this year, highlighted by T25 at the Farmers Insurance Open, and arrives having made his last two weekends. Heath pointed to Manassero’s T13 here last season and 71% fairways-hit rate (top-10 on the DP World Tour in 2024) as proof his lack of length won’t hurt on the 6,940-yard, tree-lined track. Returning to Europe—and the DP World Tour where he feels most comfortable—should give the accuracy specialist a mental boost that could translate into a sneaky top-10 or better.

Jason Sobel recommended Matteo Manassero as an aggressive outright betting pick at +27500 for the Valero Texas Open. He explained the rationale by emphasizing that many top golfers might overlook the event as they prepare for the Masters Tournament. Sobel acknowledged Manassero's modest results this year with only five made cuts and a highest finish of T-25. However, he highlighted Manassero's excellence around the greens (ranking 1st) and strong putting (24th), suggesting these strengths could help him compete at TPC San Antonio—a course that prioritizes precision over distance. Although Manassero struggles with driving (ranking 180th), Sobel believes this week's venue plays into the Italian's skill set.