Pat Fitzmaurice pegged Matt McCarty as a prime mid-tier dart at 80-to-1. McCarty sits 16th on TOUR in strokes-gained putting and profiles as a "fairway finder"—two skills Fitzmaurice said are mandatory when the John Deere turns into a -23 birdie fest. Recent results back it up: 4th at the Canadian Open and 19th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic while gaining a combined 8.2 strokes with the flat stick across those two events. Fitzmaurice added that McCarty’s 71% fairway rate over the last eight starts should set up a wedge-heavy attack on the short par 4s at TPC Deere Run, making him live for both outright and top-20 tickets.

Shane Bacon called Matt McCarty his favorite long-shot at the John Deere Classic, noting the rookie sits around +8000 in betting markets. Bacon said TPC Deere Run rewards fairway finders and precise wedge play, two areas where McCarty excels. He highlighted McCarty’s season-long consistency—multiple top-10 finishes, a win on the Korn Ferry Tour last fall, and a solid showing at the Masters—as proof the moment will not be too big. Bacon believes McCarty’s combination of fairway accuracy, tidy short game, and recent form make him worth sprinkling in outright and top-10 tickets.

Byron Lindeque closed his card by re-upping on Matthew McCarty at 80-1 (he was 150-1 the prior week before finishing 18th). McCarty sits fourth in Byron’s custom model, ranks top-10 in strokes gained during ‘easy scoring’ events, and has landed 19th, 4th and 15th at the Rocket, Canadian and Byron Nelson—three easiest setups on the recent schedule. A three-time Korn Ferry Tour winner who claimed the inaugural Black Desert Championship, McCarty has shown he can seal the deal when his iron game pops. Byron admits the floor is low but in a soft-green birdie fest prefers McCarty’s ceiling over safer cut-makers.