For his 225/1 “Bonus Bet,” Jacobs took a speculative swing on Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, arguing last week’s spark could ignite a full-blown revival. Pavon, mired at 168th in the FedEx Cup after a brutal 2025, finished 31st in Mexico while ranking top-10 in Greens in Regulation and firing a second-round 64 and closing 67—his best PGA Tour showing this season. Jacobs reminded readers that Pavon won the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open, finished 3rd at Pebble Beach and 5th at the U.S. Open, even flirting with Ryder Cup consideration just two years ago. He believes the forgiving par-71, 6,828-yard Port Royal layout mirrors those coastal setups (Pebble, Sony, Mauritius) where Pavon has thrived. Given Bermuda’s history of surprise winners arriving on cold form, Jacobs sees a clear path for a suddenly confident, high-ceiling ball striker to smash the board at 225/1 with five each-way places.

Matt Chivers highlighted Matthieu Pavon as a lottery-ticket play at 350/1. The Frenchman earned his PGA Tour card in 2024, immediately won the Farmers Insurance Open, and finished 3rd at Pebble Beach the next week. He also proved he can handle a U.S. Open grind, finishing 5th at Pinehurst in just his eighth career major start. Though his 2024 strokes-gained profile was average, four top-10s and a trip to the Tour Championship show he can spike. Pavon has struggled for form in 2025 but still ranks inside the top-40 in putting, a crucial edge on Oakmont’s diabolical greens. Chivers believes the combination of proven major mettle, recent PGA Tour victory, and elite putting touch makes the triple-digit odds worth a sprinkle.

Matt Gannon recommended Matthieu Pavon at $6,800, pointing to slow-burn improvement across his last three starts. Pavon averages 307 yards off the tee while ranking 12th in total driving over the past month. Gannon emphasized that TPC Toronto rewards length combined with accuracy—the exact combination that produced Pavon’s Wins on the DP World Tour—and the landing areas here are "fairly benign" by Tour standards. With irons moving from -2.1 SG at Valhalla to +0.4 SG at the Memorial, Gannon sees a breakout top-20 as realistic upside in GPPs.

Pat Mayo pointed out Matthieu Pavon as a sneaky player going undrafted in fantasy majors-only formats, even though he's currently qualified for three majors (Masters, US Open, Open Championship). Mayo noted Pavon currently ranks 49th globally and explained that just a single strong performance at either Augusta, RBC Heritage, or Wells Fargo Championship before the PGA Championship could reinforce his standing and help him safely qualify for the PGA Championship as well. Mayo sees Pavon as considerable underlying value, given he's currently being largely overlooked despite multiple guaranteed major starts.