Kannon fired on Matti Schmid at 80-1 after the German finished runner-up two weeks ago at Colonial—a lengthy par-70 Kannon sees as a strong proxy for TPC Toronto. Schmid has piled up three additional top-10s in the last two months, driven by precise iron play: he ranks 7th in the field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds and is No. 1 in Proximity from 175-200 yards, a key yardage on Toronto’s long par-3s and 450-500-yard par-4s. Those stats, plus wide fairways that mitigate his driving inaccuracy, make Schmid a live longshot.

Kenny Kim said Matti Schmid pops as the No. 2 overall golfer in his custom TPC Toronto model and checks every statistical box for a $7.2K DFS play—third in proximity from 200-plus yards, first from 175-200, and 12th in driving distance over the past 24 rounds. Those numbers, plus Schmid’s recent run of iron gains, make him a perfect fit on a course asking for eight long-iron approaches per round. Kim’s only hesitation is projected ownership; if Schmid pushes into double digits in large-field GPPs, he prefers pivoting to similarly priced Rico Hoey to keep line-ups unique while retaining the same bomber-plus-long-iron archetype.

Bamford put a 1-point each-way ticket on Matti Schmid at 75/1, highlighting the German’s career-best form and ideal statistical profile for TPC Toronto. Schmid ranks 15th in Driving Distance this season but is even better with mid- to long-irons: top-30 in proximity from 150-175 yards and top-10 from 175-200 and 200+ yards. That dovetails with the North Course’s six par-4s over 480 yards and two long par-3s. He’s logged four PGA Tour top-10s in 2025 and pocketed $1 million for solo 2nd at Colonial two weeks ago, where he stared down Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. Although he’s 0-for-2 at the Canadian Open, those misses came on shorter, tree-tight tracks; the new, longer, 7,389-yard layout with wide fairways removes his biggest past obstacle (accuracy). Even in last week’s MC at the Memorial he gained both off-the-tee and on approach, convincing Bamford the trend remains positive.

Mayo’s custom FantasyNational build spit Matti Schmid out fifth overall, ahead of several bigger names. Schmid is 20th in driving distance in this field and has gained strokes on approach in five straight events, ranking 4th over the past 24 rounds. Mayo down-weighted Schmid’s career-worst surface (Bermuda) and noted that the German gained a gaudy 8.6 strokes putting at Colonial—an outlier that explains his T8 finish there. Even if the putter regresses to neutral on bent/poa, Schmid’s combination of length and long-iron proficiency (top-15 from 200+ yards) fits the six 480-plus par-4s at TPC Toronto. Mayo sees Schmid as under-priced in DFS ($7,200 range) and a live top-20/top-10 bet at +450 and +900 respectively.

Calling the 150-1 price "surprisingly high," Brady Kannon pegged Matti Schmid as a sleeper who keeps cashing in weak fields. Schmid finished sixth in Puerto Rico and ninth at Corales Puntacana this spring, and he previously posted a third at TPC Summerlin plus a fifth at Black Desert—both courses in Kannon’s correlation cluster. Across his last 24 rounds Schmid ranks 16th in Birdies or Better, 16th in proximity 175-200 yards, 11th from 200+ yards, and 15th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass. Those numbers, paired with Craig Ranch’s scoring nature, prompted Kannon to allocate outright and top-20 exposure to the German.

Kenny Kim called Matthias Schmid a core GPP play at exactly $7,000. Schmid is top-5 in Kim’s custom model thanks to a blend of length (top-15 in driving distance), elite long-iron metrics (top-20 proximity from both 175-200 and 200-plus yards), and a 34th-ranked good-drive percentage that should keep him in position despite the stretched layout. Kim believes the German will be "low-owned" because most lineups jam popular Koreans or recent Zurich winners in that salary tier. He sees Schmid’s combination of driving power and long-iron precision as perfect for Craig Ranch’s newly lengthened par-4s and thinks a ceiling week easily pays off the price tag in large-field DFS.

Steve Palmer highlights Matti Schmid as a valuable bet each-way at 45-1 odds to capture his first PGA Tour win at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Palmer notes Schmid’s strong track record at lower-profile island events, featuring top results at both the Bermuda Championship (3rd place), where conditions mirror those at Puntacana, and the Puerto Rico Open (top-ten finishes twice). Schmid notably garnered an 11th-place finish at this same course last year, reinforcing his affinity for tropical locations. Palmer views Schmid’s consistent performances in these wind-affected coastal venues as an excellent indicator he can contend seriously this week.

Byron Lindeque endorsed Matti Schmid as an appealing DFS play at only $7000, despite his inconsistency and notably poor performance in round three of tournaments. Schmid frequently excels early in events, gaining strokes consistently in rounds one and two, but then severely underperforms his baseline in the third round, especially struggling in short game metrics. However, he has proven capable of rebounding unexpectedly strong in final rounds. Lindeque specifically mentioned Schmid's effective scoring at very difficult ('hellish') courses, suggesting these conditions at Memorial Park may suit him. Considering low price and demonstrated upside despite late-week volatility, Matti Schmid makes a worthy DFS play in Lindeque's view.

Pat Perry flagged Matti Schmid at +450 odds as an attractive top-20 longshot bet this week. Schmid, who finished T21 at Memorial Park last year and recently secured a top 20 at the Cognizant, is ranked 18th in the bet the number model. While Schmid's scrambling is a bit of a concern, Perry believes his overall profile and recent form make him worth consideration given the high payout odds.

Brian Kirschner recommends Matti Schmid for a Top 40 finish at +150 odds, highlighting his balanced play lately, finishing 18th, 6th, and 28th in three of his last four events. Schmid gained strokes in all four major statistical categories last week and previously placed 21st here last year, demonstrating an ideal profile to have another solid finish this week.

Pat Mayo advised betters not to invest in Matti Schmid despite acknowledging occasional bright spots, including a 21st place finish here a year ago. His extreme inconsistency—a pattern alternating missed cuts with decent finishes—and recent failure at The Players Championship make Schmid a poor trust candidate this week. Mayo highlighted that Schmid primarily relies on spike putting weeks, and with severely erratic approach statistics and poor all-around consistency, he's likely to disappoint bettors who chase his potential upside.

Pat Mayo sees Matti Schmid as the better selection at even money in the German nationality market, facing Stephan Jaeger. Mayo highlighted that Jaeger historically struggles at Sawgrass due to his reliance on scrambling and inaccuracy off the tee. In contrast, Mayo noted that Schmid typically excels on Pete Dye-designed courses, and is coming off a strong showing in Puerto Rico, giving him an edge in the direct matchup against Jaeger.