Silverstein backed McIlroy at 5-1 to win. Rory has dominated Quail Hollow throughout his career and now plays “the best golf he’s produced in a decade,” fresh off completing the grand slam at Augusta and a strong tune-up at the Truist Championship. With rain lengthening the course, his power advantage looms even larger.

McDonald called McIlroy the "free square" for placement markets. Rory has won four times at Quail Hollow, arrives with elite form and no longer carries the mental burden after completing the career grand slam at Augusta. His huge carry distance is even more valuable after early-week rains lengthened the course, making a top-10 finish the analyst’s safest wager.

McClure’s SportsLine model projects Rory McIlroy as a top-tier contender based on unmatched course history at Quail Hollow. McIlroy owns four PGA Tour victories here (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024) and three of those came by four shots or more. Fresh off completing the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters, he rolls in with confidence, now a 29-time Tour winner. While his 2017 PGA visit to this track produced a modest T-22 and he’s logged only three top-10s in his last ten PGA Championships, the model expects the softer, rain-soaked conditions to accentuate his high-ball flight and wedge precision. At +480, the simulation views him as a justifiable outright or each-way play and a priority anchor in DFS builds thanks to his proven ceiling on this specific layout.

Rick Gehman said Rory McIlroy is a slam-dunk outright and DFS anchor because Quail Hollow is basically built for him this week. Gehman pointed out that McIlroy owns the best strokes-gained record at Quail in the ShotLink era, gaining more than 2.2 strokes per round here since 2010. Two inches of pre-tournament rain have softened fairways, allowing Rory to smash driver without fear of run-outs, while still leaving firm greens that reward his high, spinning approach shots. Gehman added that several par-4s now present carry lines only McIlroy can take, effectively shortening the course by nearly 200 cumulative yards over four rounds and turning long irons for the field into wedges for Rory. Coming off a Masters win that completed his career Grand Slam, McIlroy also leads the Tour in driving distance and birdies per round. Gehman is comfortable betting him at sub-8-to-1 outright, loading up on top-5 props, and locking him into every DFS core build.

Jason Sobel said Rory McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow with every arrow pointing his way. McIlroy finally ticked off the Masters last month, so Sobel argued he is now “unburdened” and playing looser golf than anyone else on Earth. The numbers back it up—McIlroy owns the lowest cumulative score to par in majors since 2020 and has already won four PGA Tour events on this course. With the rain-softened setup expected to stretch past 7,600 yards, Sobel thinks McIlroy’s high-draw driver gives him a massive edge, especially on the bomber-friendly 16th where he can comfortably fly the new 330-yard bunker. In Sobel’s eyes the combination of elite recent form, course horseship and a clear mental slate makes McIlroy the man to bet outright and a core DFS play.

For one-and-done pools, Charlie Hulme decided he "just has to use" Rory McIlroy despite widespread popularity. Hulme referenced earlier discussion that Rory owns the lowest historical scoring average at Quail Hollow and sits at +500 on DraftKings, second only to Scottie Scheffler. He reasoned that fading Rory would feel worse if the Ulsterman wins than burning him in a chalky week where everyone misses. Hulme therefore locked Rory as his major bullet, confident the form and course history outweigh ownership concerns.

David Barnett said that if bettors are forced to choose between Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler at the virtual-co-favorite price of +425 to +500, he is siding with Rory every time. Barnett called McIlroy “the king of Quail Hollow,” noting two Wells Fargo victories, a tournament-record 61, and nine top-10s in 12 career starts on the property. The Northern Irishman’s high-launch driver and towering long-iron flight perfectly match this year’s rain-softened, rye-rough setup, and Barnett believes the confidence from already bagging the Masters and another win earlier in the season removed any lingering mental baggage. Scheffler, by contrast, has skipped Quail for scheduling reasons and has logged zero competitive reps there, which Barnett labeled the lone ‘hole in the Scheffler boat.’ He is comfortable betting Rory down to 7-1 and would only flip to Bryson DeChambeau if the McIlroy number shortens into the 6-1 range.

Bo McBrayer said Rory McIlroy is the superior outright bet at +450 compared to Scottie Scheffler at +400. McBrayer’s first-run Quail Hollow model ranked McIlroy No. 1 and Scheffler No. 2, largely because this setup magnifies Rory’s strengths. The course will stretch to 7,626 yards and, thanks to early-week rain, play even longer, putting a premium on long, straight driving. Quail Hollow’s narrow fairways and frequent long-iron approaches fit McIlroy’s tee-to-green profile; McBrayer added that McIlroy holds “a massive advantage in driving and putting” over Scheffler this week. With both players near-identical win probabilities but McIlroy available at a slightly longer price, McBrayer sees the Northern Irishman as the smarter betting value to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

Brandon Gdula advised passing on Rory McIlroy at +450 to win the PGA Championship, calling the number "a little too rich" despite acknowledging that McIlroy checks every box. McIlroy owns four victories at Quail Hollow (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024), has made 12 of 13 cuts there, and enters with wins at Pebble Beach, THE PLAYERS, and the Masters in his last eight stroke-play starts. He ranks second on tour in carry distance, third in distance gained over his last 50 rounds, and is a top-10 putter in that span. Even so, Gdula’s simulations do not justify a sub-5-to-1 ticket in a major field featuring Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and other elite bombers who also fit the course profile. Bettors looking for value should wait for a drift toward 6-1 or pivot to other outrights and finishing props.

Cameron DaSilva said Rory McIlroy is "the king of Quail Hollow" and worth a +100 ticket to finish inside the top five. McIlroy has already won at this track, owns elite length off the tee that plays perfectly into the 7,626-yard layout, and comes in with an improved approach game that keyed his Masters victory last month. DaSilva believes those factors, plus Quail Hollow’s history of rewarding bombers, make a top-five result a safer way to profit on the co-favorite than betting him outright.

Guy Boston said Rory McIlroy is the clear No. 1 in his Quail Hollow model and worth an outright at roughly +425 despite the short price. Boston’s custom model pours 20 % of its weight into strokes-gained off-the-tee and 18 % into approach shots from 195+ yards—the two areas Rory is crushing. McIlroy is gaining 0.7 SG OTT over his last 24 rounds and 0.87 over his last 10, while rating strongly in the 225-plus-yard approach bucket that will dominate on a 7,500-yard setup featuring multiple 220-yard par-3s. With three straight top-12 finishes (T5, T12, T7) and elite club-head speed, Boston believes Rory’s length and long-iron prowess offset the brutal finishing stretch and make him a justifiable favorite.

Kyle Murray said the +450 outright number on Rory McIlroy (and similarly priced Scottie Scheffler) is too short to justify a wager, explaining that his rule is to avoid golfers listed shorter than 10-1 because the hold on favorites crushes bettor ROI. Instead, Murray plans to deploy McIlroy heavily in DFS contests where salary caps, not long odds, determine value. He is hunting longer outright numbers elsewhere while letting the betting market’s obsession with the top two drain value from the rest of the field.

Kris McCormack went with Rory McIlroy at +500, reminding readers he has four Quail victories plus a T22 the last time the PGA visited in 2017. McCormack emphasized Quail’s length and demanding driving corridors play directly into Rory’s 320-yard carry game, making it one of the Northern Irishman’s comfort tracks. With recent momentum and a proven Charlotte pedigree, he sees Rory as every bit Scheffler’s equal.

McClure’s model stamped Rory McIlroy as a top win equity play at +480, leaning on a perfect blend of elite driver metrics and unmatched course history. McIlroy leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee and sits third in driving distance, a potent combo at the 7,600-yard Quail Hollow that lets bombers swing freely thanks to forgiving fairways. He is already a four-time winner at this track (most of any course he’s played in the U.S.) and rolls in riding the momentum of completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta. The only statistical blemish is middling driving accuracy, but the model notes Quail Hollow’s leniency mitigates that weakness. DFS players and outright bettors are encouraged to ride the form and course fit even with the added pressure of a potential calendar Slam.

Mike McClure said Rory McIlroy is worth every penny at $12,200 on DraftKings and $12,700 on FanDuel. McClure pointed out that McIlroy finally shed the Masters monkey by completing the career Grand Slam earlier this year, removing the yearly mental hurdle that had dogged him since 2015. With the pressure lifted, McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow leading the FedEx Cup standings and riding elite major form: no finish worse than 12th in the last three PGA Championships and three top-8s in the last six. McClure’s model projects that positive mindset and track record to translate into a top-end fantasy ceiling, making McIlroy a core building block despite the hefty salary.

Ryan Murphy said Rory McIlroy is the rightful +450 favorite to win at Quail Hollow. McIlroy rolls in with Masters momentum (completing the career Grand Slam) and an unmatched course résumé: four career victories at Quail including 2010, 2015, 2021 and 2023. ChatGPT’s model emphasized that familiarity, plus McIlroy’s elite current form—bogey-free 66 to open, 65 Friday surge fueled by a 343-yard drive/eagle, and a gritty 70 in Saturday winds. Murphy added that Rory’s iron play (laser-accurate approaches) and putter under pressure on 11 and 17 have him primed to close, projecting a four-round total around −15.

Hochberg labeled Rory McIlroy a smash DFS play at $12,200, arguing “the stars could not align any better.” McIlroy lifted the decade-long major burden by completing the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters, owns a record four wins at Quail Hollow, and has already captured three 2025 titles (Masters, PLAYERS, Pebble Beach). Statistically he is sixth on Tour in SG: Putting and continues to rank top-10 Off-the-Tee. With emotional relief plus perfect course fit, Hochberg expects McIlroy to contend for a sixth major while offering $1,200 in salary relief versus Scheffler.

Cameron DaSilva said McIlroy is a justifiable favorite at +500 because every relevant box is checked. The Northern Irishman shook off his major-championship monkey by winning the 2025 Masters, then backed it up with a T-7 at last week’s Truist Championship. Quail Hollow is easily his best PGA Tour venue—four career victories here—and its 7,626-yard, par-71 layout rewards pure power off the tee, McIlroy’s calling card. With confidence high, elite recent ball-striking, and unmatched course comfort, DaSilva believes the price is short but still worth a win ticket.

Jim Sannes said he will finally pull the trigger on Rory McIlroy if books drift the outright price to +550. That number drops Rory’s implied win probability to roughly 15%, which is the first point his model shows a tangible edge after accounting for vig. Sannes emphasized that McIlroy’s Quail Hollow resume—four victories, nine top-10s, and nearly +3.0 strokes gained off the tee per round—perfectly matches the bomber-friendly 7,626-yard par-71. Should the price appear, Sannes will keep his card lean, pairing Rory with only one longer shot such as Xander Schauffele and ignoring the rest of the favorites in order to keep total exposure under five units.

Jim Sannes said Rory McIlroy is the unquestioned core play for DFS but unbettable at his current +450 outright price. Sannes rattled off McIlroy’s absurd Quail Hollow resume—four wins (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024), 12 made cuts in 13 starts, nine top-10s, and an average of nearly three strokes gained off the tee per round at this course. The length advantage remains massive, and data-golf’s new records page shows McIlroy’s 2024 season tracking as one of the 12 best strokes-gained years since 1983. That sets up perfectly for a major where driving distance historically correlates with winning. However, Sannes argued the market has correctly priced that ceiling, leaving no edge at +450 when bettors still have to get past Scottie Scheffler and other bombers. His takeaway: jam Rory into cash-game builds and single-entry DFS stacks, but allocate outright bankroll elsewhere unless the number drifts closer to +700.

Eric Polzin said Rory McIlroy is the premier Tier-1 choice for PGA Championship office pools because the Northern Irishman has "won two of his last three starts" at Quail Hollow, the 2025 host venue. Rory is tied with Scottie Scheffler for the shortest outright number at 4.5-to-1 and carries roughly a 90 percent cut-making probability according to Polzin’s model. McIlroy’s course dominance coupled with elite recent buzz makes him both safe and ceiling-heavy, and Polzin advised riding that record unless you need to dodge what he expects to be a roughly 50-percent roster rate.

Pat Mayo said he would take Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler in the standard −120/−120 tournament-matchup that most books opened Monday morning. Mayo’s logic is that Quail Hollow is essentially Rory’s personal playground—multiple Wells Fargo wins and a decade of competitive reps—while Scheffler has never teed it up in a solo Tour event here. Scheffler’s only experience came at the 2022 Presidents Cup on a different bermuda/rye blend where he went 0-3-1 and was a non-factor. With Quail’s sight-line nuances, prevailing winds, and penal bermuda rough, Mayo believes institutional knowledge matters and that Scheffler’s elite ball-striking can’t fully overcome his lack of course reps. Mayo therefore sees Rory as the rightful small favorite and is comfortable laying the pick-em juice in head-to-heads or DFS showdowns that group the two together.

Fresh off completing the career grand slam at Augusta, Rory McIlroy opens at 9/2 and heads to arguably his personal playground. Kalland reminded readers that no one owns Quail Hollow like Rory—four victories in Charlotte, the most recent coming last season. A win would move him halfway to an unprecedented calendar grand slam with the Open waiting at home-soil Royal Portrush. Bettors looking to ride a historic narrative are encouraged to start piling chips on McIlroy now before the price shortens further.

Polzin acknowledged the sticker shock on Rory McIlroy but still endorsed him as a worthwhile pay-up or outright at 4-to-1 to 5-to-1. Rory is the defending Masters and THE PLAYERS champion and owns two prior victories at Quail Hollow, a course he famously gushes about. Recent form remains pristine— a 7th-place tune-up last week joining his string of elite finishes— and he ranks #1 in Polzin’s strokes-gained off-the-tee model for this setup. The catch: salary constraints mean DFS rosters can realistically afford only one of Rory or Scottie. Polzin leans Rory in GPPs where ownership discounts could appear, pointing to Rory’s proven ceiling here and willingness to attack the drive-able par-4s. Bettors comfortable with short odds can plant a flag on the Northern Irishman, then keep cards lean to preserve bankroll.

Shane Bacon said Rory McIlroy’s statistical domination at Quail Hollow is so extreme that fading him borders on malpractice. Since debuting in 2010, McIlroy is 102-under-par at the venue—55 shots clear of the next closest player—and has gained a mind-bending 65 strokes off the tee. He is nine-under on Quail’s par-4s while the next three names on the list are a combined 79-over, underscoring how his high-trajectory long irons separate him from everyone else. Bacon concluded those numbers, layered on top of McIlroy’s current run of four straight worldwide top-10s, justify swallowing the shortest outright price and anchoring DFS lineups even at chalk ownership.

Patrick McDonald said the torrents of rain turning Quail Hollow into a soft, 7,600-yard slog narrow the realistic winner pool to a handful of bomb-and-gouge specialists, headlined by Rory McIlroy. Because the fairways will offer virtually zero rollout, McDonald emphasized that only players who can *carry* the ball 320-plus will still reach key landing zones and fly the new back-tee bunkers on holes such as 17. Rory already demonstrated that ability when he casually flew the freshly-added 17th-hole bunker during last year’s Wells Fargo, turning a penal tee box into a wedge number. Combine that with his current heater—four straight worldwide top-10s and a +2.1 strokes-gained/tee-to-green trend over his last 12 rounds—and McDonald believes McIlroy is now “1A” in the outright market. He framed the bet as Rory vs. the field’s bombers, recommending outright tickets and DFS captain exposure because the wet setup eliminates most of the shorter, accuracy-first crowd.

Neil Parker said Rory McIlroy should be backed at +500 to win the 2025 PGA Championship because Quail Hollow is basically Rory’s personal playground. McIlroy owns four victories and five additional Top-10s in 13 career starts at the course and leads this field in true strokes gained at Quail Hollow over the last five Wells Fargo Championships played here. He arrives on a heater, winning four of his last ten worldwide starts and ranking third in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting during that span. Parker acknowledged the difficulty of winning back-to-back majors but argued McIlroy is “playing the best golf on the planet,” making the short price worth swallowing.

Hannable urged outright bettors to include Rory McIlroy because he not only clears all four trend filters that have identified eight of the last 10 PGA champions, he also boasts unmatched course history with four career victories at Quail Hollow. McIlroy sits No. 2 in Data Golf’s world ranking, placed inside the top-20 in his last start, owns multiple PGA Championship top-10s, and recorded a top-10 in one of the two preceding majors—each criterion met by recent winners. Hannable believes those factors, combined with Rory’s bid for a second straight major, make him a must-bet despite relatively short odds.

Len Hochberg said Rory McIlroy should be a foundational play for both DFS lineups and outright betting at Quail Hollow. McIlroy owns four career victories on this track—more than any other course—including last year’s Wells Fargo win, and he has never finished worse than 8-under in any of those victories. The 7,626-yard layout features nine par-4s of 450+ yards and rewards power, giving McIlroy’s elite length a clear edge. Hochberg added that McIlroy’s season-long ball-striking metrics are “statistically fantastic,” matching his comfort level on the famed Green Mile closing stretch that produced over half the event’s double-bogeys last year. With single-digit winning scores expected, Hochberg believes McIlroy’s combination of distance and elite course history makes him worth the $12.2K salary and short outright odds.

John Haslbauer said he is firing a lone outright on Rory McIlroy to win the 2025 PGA Championship, calling it the most obvious major setup he can remember. McIlroy owns four Wells Fargo titles at Quail Hollow, has finished top-10 in nine of his last 12 starts here and has gained 136 strokes on the field over his last 50 rounds at the course—more than 80 strokes better than anyone else. The Northern Irishman holds the Quail Hollow course record (61) and is first in Haslbauer’s model thanks to elite driving distance (top-2 in the field), long-iron proximity (top-10 from 175+ yards) and scrambling on fast Bermuda. Recent form is vintage: victories at The Masters, THE PLAYERS and Pebble Beach already this season. Expected soft, wet conditions should further reward carry distance, a historical advantage for McIlroy who lifted the Wanamaker in similar weather at Valhalla. Haslbauer noted additional motivational fuel—chasing Scottie Scheffler for world No. 1 and a sixth career major—and concluded McIlroy “checks every box” for both outright tickets and DFS roster cores.

Paulie urged bettors to pass on Rory McIlroy at +475. Although Rory ended an 11-year major drought by winning the Masters last month and owns three career victories at Quail Hollow, the +475 number equates to a 17.4% chance to win—odds Paulie views as inflated. He believes the market is overreacting to recent form and course history, noting that comparable power-putting profiles like Bryson and Xander are trading at three to four times the price. With a deep field and Rory’s long-term major inconsistency outside Augusta, Paulie considers the outright line a poor value play.

Paulie urged bettors not to chase Rory McIlroy at +475. Yes, Rory just ended his decade-long major drought by winning the Masters and owns three career victories at Quail Hollow, but Paulie stressed those data points are already fully—or even overly—priced in. A +475 number equates to a 17.4% chance to win, which Paulie believes is aggressive given Rory’s lone major since 2014 and the depth of big-hitting, hot-putter threats in the field. He prefers Bryson at 14/1 and Xander at 18/1, arguing that their odds should not be three to four times longer than Rory’s.

Nick Piastowski reaffirmed the December futures ticket he placed on Rory McIlroy at +500, admitting it is the boring choice but still his favorite. He did add Sungjae Im as a deeper flyer at +6600, yet regards McIlroy's Quail Hollow pedigree and current form as the safest path to profit.

Kris McCormack grabbed Rory McIlroy at +500, citing four career wins at Quail Hollow and a T22 finish when the venue hosted the 2017 PGA. McCormack labeled Quail one of Rory's favorite tracks—long, demanding, and tailor-made for his aggressive driving. That combination of comfort and fit makes McIlroy an obvious outright play despite the short price.

Esten McLaren backed Rory McIlroy at +500 (BetMGM) to lift the Wanamaker, framing Quail Hollow as a tailor-made playground for the Northern Irishman. McIlroy owns four career wins at the venue and has gained a staggering 2.87 true strokes per round across 50 career loops—no one else is close. McLaren tied that horses-for-courses edge to McIlroy’s current heater (fresh off finally completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta) and noted that the pressure of a decade-long major drought has evaporated. He expects McIlroy’s length off the tee and elite long-iron play—both mandatory at Quail Hollow—to separate him from co-favorite Scottie Scheffler. A $10 stake would return $50 profit.

While sportsbooks list Scottie Scheffler at +450, Valdera Morales declared Rory McIlroy the "true favorite" at +480, citing a near-perfect marriage of course history and current form. McIlroy has won four of 12 starts at Quail Hollow’s Wells Fargo/Truist Championship and logged five additional top-10s. In 2025 alone he has three worldwide victories, including the long-awaited career Grand Slam, a feat the tout believes provides a significant psychological edge. Combining elite driving, proven success on this layout, and Scheffler’s shorter price, Valdera Morales urged bettors to prioritize McIlroy outright tickets or place heavier exposure in each-way markets.

Matt Gannon said bettors should grab Rory McIlroy outright tickets now because he expects Rory’s price to tighten and ultimately close even with Scottie Scheffler by Thursday. Gannon’s rationale is course specific: Scheffler has never teed it up at Quail Hollow outside of the Presidents Cup and openly admits he dislikes the track, while Rory has multiple victories there and ‘owns the place.’ With Quail consistently rewarding elite drivers and proven major winners, Gannon views Rory’s proven comfort and Scheffler’s avoidance as a clear edge in both the outright and head-to-head markets.

Matt Gannon said Rory McIlroy is his preferred spend-up play at Quail Hollow for the PGA Championship. Gannon noted that McIlroy has “owned this place” historically, with multiple wins on the course and the exact combo of length plus long-iron talent the layout demands. He downplayed Rory’s T8/T10 showing in Philadelphia, pointing out it was the first real start since winning the Masters and the only blemish was a slightly off iron week. With Quail’s 7,600-yard setup rewarding bombers and Rory’s elite track record there, Gannon is building DFS line-ups around McIlroy.

Jonny Leighfield endorsed Rory McIlroy at +450, arguing the Masters champion’s only barrier is "his own mentality" after finally winning at Augusta. McIlroy holds the Quail Hollow course record (61) and has multiple Wells Fargo/Truist titles, prompting Leighfield to joke the venue could be renamed "McIlroy's Hollow." Although McIlroy’s driver was wild at last week’s Truist Championship, he still finished T7, underscoring current form. Leighfield expects a tighter driving performance and believes the combination of confidence, course history, and high-end ball-striking makes Major No.6 "extremely likely."

McClure’s model highlighted Rory McIlroy as a justifiable favorite thanks to four career victories at Quail Hollow—including three by four shots or more—and three PGA Tour wins already this season. Now freed from the pressure of chasing a green jacket after completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta, McIlroy should feel unburdened on a layout perfectly suited to his high-launch driver. Still, the model noted his decade-long drought at the PGA Championship: since his last Wanamaker in 2014 he owns more finishes outside the top-20 (five) than inside the top-10 (three) and managed only T-22 when the 2017 PGA was held on this same course. Bettors are getting +480 odds; the model sees upside given course history but warns that his recent PGA record injects downside risk—making him better suited for DFS builds than outright tickets heavy with exposure.

Rich Gehman called Rory McIlroy the premier play of the week, labeling Rory-at-Quail the single best player-course combo in his entire database: +2.86 strokes per round over 32 rounds with wins in 2010, 2015, 2021 and 2024 plus top-10s everywhere else. Quail Hollow rewards distance, high-apex irons and spin—traits McIlroy possesses in spades—and early-week rain should stretch the layout beyond its listed 7,600 yards, further favoring bombers. Gehman added that McIlroy just posted a T7 at last week’s signature event despite losing strokes on approach and around the greens, illustrating his sky-high floor. With the pressure of a 10-year major drought finally gone, Gehman expects McIlroy to decimate both par-5s and par-4s and views him as a must-have for DFS lineups and outright tickets.

Jason Sobel plans a one-and-done outright card, leaning solely on Rory McIlroy at +500. Sobel noted Quail Hollow has essentially been Rory’s personal playground—four career victories on the course plus a 2017 PGA contended run. Members told Sobel the club was lengthened in a way similar to Augusta’s Tiger-proofing, which ironically favors the very bomber they might be trying to rein in. Sobel also praised Rory’s current swing, saying he is "swinging freer and easier than ever" and that his recent off-course triumphs mean he is playing without the weight of expectations. With the track stretching 7,600 yards and likely yielding a winning score near –8 again, Sobel believes it will be “really, really difficult to beat Rory McIlroy on this golf course,” adding only Scheffler, Bryson, JT, or Xander have the firepower to keep pace.

McClure’s model gives Rory McIlroy a strong chance to chase his first Wanamaker in a decade despite the short +480 number. Supporting data: McIlroy has already posted three victories in 2025 after finally completing the career Grand Slam at Augusta, suggesting a mental burden has lifted. He is a four-time winner of the Wells Fargo/Truist Championship played on the same Quail Hollow track, with three of those wins coming by four shots or more, underscoring elite course fit. While he has only three top-10s versus five finishes outside the top-20 in PGA Championships since his 2014 triumph, the model views his Quail Hollow comfort and current form as enough to override that historical volatility and projects him firmly in the mix. Bettors looking for an anchor at the top of the outright card or a DFS stud can ride the hot hand and homey course history.

McClure’s model gives McIlroy a strong win probability at +480 based on an ideal marriage of form and course history. Rory already owns three victories this season and finally lifted the career-grand-slam burden with his Masters win, freeing him mentally for Quail Hollow. He’s captured the Wells Fargo (now Truist) at this venue four times—three of them by four strokes or more—showing the layout accentuates his driving advantage. While he’s logged just three top-10s in ten PGA Championships since his last Wanamaker in 2014, the simulator projects a better than 25% chance of a podium finish, making him a core outright and DFS anchor.

Iain MacMillan noted Rory McIlroy sits directly behind Scheffler at +500 to win the PGA Championship and believes the number is fair because Quail Hollow accentuates McIlroy’s elite driving—he ranks No. 2 in true strokes gained tee-to-green over the past six months. McIlroy’s confidence is sky-high after finally bagging the Masters, giving him back-to-back realistic shots at majors. With the course demanding power off the tee and McIlroy trending in the right statistical direction, MacMillan expects him to be in the thick of it Sunday and views him as a co-favorite worth an outright ticket.

Keith Stewart pegged Rory McIlroy as a co-favorite alongside Bryson DeChambeau for the 2025 PGA Championship, saying the Northern Irishman’s four career victories at Quail Hollow give him a decisive edge. Stewart emphasized that McIlroy owns more competitive reps on these Poa-overseeded greens than anyone in the field, while Scottie Scheffler—whom the market lists shorter than Rory—has only logged a single appearance here (the 2022 Presidents Cup) and is skipping this year’s Wells Fargo again. With next week’s forecast calling for hot, humid, wind-protected conditions that add even more carry distance, Stewart expects McIlroy’s 320-yard drives to play closer to 335 and set up wedges instead of long-irons. He framed the event as a duel of bombers, concluding that Quail Hollow’s rough is now predictable ryegrass instead of sticky Bermuda, eliminating the one variable that has occasionally punished Rory’s spray. Stewart locked McIlroy onto his outright card and will anchor him in high-end DFS lineups, projecting another top-5 in birdie-or-better rate and at least a 10% win probability.

Andy Lack said Rory McIlroy should once again dominate Quail Hollow because the setup amplifies Rory’s two biggest weapons: a 310-plus carry and the rare ability to hit a towering draw on command. Lack noted that the fairways on several key dog-leg holes, especially the opening 505-yard par-4, cant left-to-right around deep bunkers. A high draw that covers those bunkers both shortens the hole and kicks forward with the slope, producing 340- to 350-yard drives. With the course stretched to 7,626 yards and the rough grown to 2.75 inches, shorter hitters will be forced to hit mid- and long-irons from the thick stuff while Rory will still have short irons or wedges. McIlroy has already won three Wells Fargos and leads the field in distance-to-apex on his Quail Hollow victories. Lack expects roughly 40 % of approaches to come from 200+ yards and believes Rory’s combination of elite carry distance, high apex, and historically strong Champion Bermuda putting gives him the clearest path to victory and makes him a priority outright bet and DFS anchor.