Brandon Gdula sees betting value in Sam Burns at +4500 odds, despite Burns' recent struggles with iron play. Gdula argues Burns' current slump represents a dip from his established historical proficiency with the irons, suggesting positive regression is likely. Burns also brings elite putting skills, good overall short game performance, and solid driving ability suited to TPC San Antonio, adding upside despite missing the cut twice previously while also logging a T23 in his appearances here. Gdula sees long-term value betting on Burns as he returns to form.

Brandon Gdula highlighted Sam Burns as an attractive top-10 bet (+450) at the Valero Texas Open due primarily to his elite short game metrics. Burns ranks number one in the field in combined strokes gained around-the-green and putting over recent events, enabling him to rank fifth overall in approach-through-putting metrics despite considerably struggling recently with his iron play. With three consecutive tournaments of poor iron performance, Gdula acknowledges the recent struggles but trusts Burns' long-term iron profile, citing excellent performances like the WM Phoenix Open. Given TPC San Antonio's historical correlation with short game excellence, Gdula believes Burns' elite strengths in putting and wedge play justify a strong top-10 bet, despite his temporary iron inconsistencies.

Rick Gehman strongly recommended avoiding Sam Burns at the Valero Texas Open, highlighting a worrisome combination in Burns' recent statistical profile. Gehman cited Burns' extremely poor approach play metrics combined with unsustainable gains with the putter; specifically, Burns is currently positioned in the dreaded bottom-right quadrant of Rick's trends tool—a player performing badly tee-to-green and simultaneously putting better than their usual baseline, historically an alarming indication of future decline. Given these factors, Gehman sees no justification for Burns' $8K price range and refuses to buy back in until meaningful improvements occur.

Andy Lack strongly recommended fading defending champion Sam Burns due to severe recent struggles in approach play. Lack cited that Burns has lost strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts, with an alarming total of 14 strokes lost in approach over just the last six rounds. Despite Burns' outstanding past success at this event, Lack strongly cautions against backing him given these dire current form issues.

The anonymous swing coach recommended Sam Burns as a bet due to current value from his recent poor play masking his excellent tournament history. Burns is a back-to-back winner at the Valspar Championship in 2021 and 2022 and has demonstrated comfort and effectiveness specifically on Bermudagrass greens. Despite a recent slump characterized by mixed ball-striking, his notable course fit and familiarity make it a worthwhile selection to expect a return to form at a track that suits his game perfectly.

Nick Borrman expressed skepticism towards Sam Burns as a strong betting option, despite his past success at Innisbrook Resort where he's a two-time winner. While acknowledging Burns' love for the course, Borrman highlighted his problematic recent finishes, missing the cut last year and not placing in the top 20 in his last six tournaments despite being priced as a top-seven golfer. Borrman attributed Burns' struggles mainly to his approaches, with a minus 0.42 total strokes gained in this category this season.

Nick Borrman selected Sam Burns for the Valspar Championship in a one-and-done format based on his impressive course history. Though not in top form now, Burns' past success at the Innisbrook Resort gives him an edge. Borrman suggested that familiarity and comfort with the course will likely bring Burns to a top-20 finish, even if it's not a win. He considers this the best tournament to use Burns due to these factors.

Sia Nejad feels that Sam Burns is a risky DFS play, even with a stellar history at the Valspar Championship. Highlighting Burns's recent poor form, Nejad doesn't believe his past wins at this event make up for his current struggles, particularly with approach play. Instead, Nejad aims to find opportunities to fade Burns, possibly looking for intriguing matchup bets against him if the right opportunity presents itself. Nejad's stance reflects a concern more with current form than with leaning too heavily on historical success.

Will Gray emphasized Sam Burns' strong history at the Copperhead Course, particularly in navigating the challenging 'Snake Pit' section. Burns has struggled since his T8 finish at The Sentry, but Gray believes his course knowledge and previous success at the Valspar Championship make him a strong bet at +2200.

Rick Gehman recommended fading Sam Burns this week despite his strong history at the Valspar Championship (wins in 2021 and 2022, and sixth place in 2023). Gehman highlighted Burns' recent struggles, notably losing multiple strokes on approach shots in eight of his last nine events, marking a significant departure from his usual strengths as a big-time approach player and putter. While the course traditionally boosts approach and putting skills—areas where Burns previously excelled—his current form is significantly worse, making him an overpriced and risky DFS option according to Gehman.

Geoff Ulrich points out Sam Burns' elite history at Copperhead makes him a compelling DFS selection. Burns has consistently dominated on these greens, gaining over 3.0 strokes putting each time he played this course, including back-to-back wins in 2021 and 2022 and a T6 finish in 2023. Given the course's characteristic for rewarding hot putters significantly, Burns' historically elite putting performances strongly elevate his fantasy outlook this week.

Mike McClure's SportsLine model is recommending bettors fade previous winner Sam Burns at the 2025 Valspar Championship. Although Burns has outstanding history here, having won in both 2021 and 2022 and scoring a sixth-place finish in 2023, his current form is deeply concerning. In 2025, outside of a T-8 finish at The Sentry, Burns has struggled significantly, recently missing the cut at the Players Championship. Moreover, Burns has finished T-48 or worse in three out of his last four PGA Tour events. Critical driving accuracy stats find Burns languishing at 113th on tour (57.35 percent), coupled with other striking statistics, like ranking 117th in one-putt percentage (38.89 percent) and a notably poor 154th in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.514). McClure sees these underlying stats, coupled with current form trajectory, making him a poor betting choice even at shorter odds, urging bettors to seek stronger values elsewhere.

Matt Gannon strongly advised fading Sam Burns in DFS, pointing to Burns' dramatic struggles with his ball-striking and approach game recently—highlighted by losing over 10 strokes on approach at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Gannon expressed significant concern about Burns' alarming lack of form, even jokingly suggesting he could be heading towards Korn Ferry Tour-level play if these trends continue. Based on Burns’ current lack of control going into a demanding test like TPC Sawgrass, Gannon warns DFS players to avoid Burns completely.

Joe Idone advised strongly against betting Sam Burns this week, highlighting Burns' dire ball-striking struggles last tournament, where he lost 10 strokes tee-to-green. Idone emphasized that TPC Sawgrass is not the type of course where players can quickly find their lost form, expressing doubts about Burns' current state, especially given his recent tendency to hit significant numbers of balls into water hazards. Despite Burns' tempting outright odds, Idone is off him due to his severe ball-striking issue right now.

Ben Coley positioned Sam Burns as overrated for fantasy and betting due to his heavy dependency on putting strength, calling out his limited skillset elsewhere. Burns' wins have come frequently on similar layouts and specific types of courses (twice at Valspar, the Match Play Championship, Sanderson Farms, and Colonial). Coley emphasized Burns' irons are not elite enough to be considered truly world-class, causing reliance on strong putting weeks. Such a narrow skill set and reliance on putting makes Burns more inconsistent and less trustworthy as a betting or fantasy option at tournaments outside his comfort zones, indicating caution.

Joe Idone identified Sam Burns as a strong candidate at around 60-1 for TPC Sawgrass given his capability to dominate off the tee. Pointing out how past TPC Sawgrass winners like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Scottie Scheffler leveraged elite off-the-tee play, Idone highlighted Burns's recent form, gaining at least 2.5 strokes off the tee in three of his last five starts. Burns notched a top-25 finish at the Genesis and has strong Bermuda grass putting numbers, ranking fifth overall in strokes gained total in Florida recently. Idone referenced his standout round at last year's Genesis Invitational, where Burns impressed on-site with an elite driving performance and approach game. He emphasized Burns' high upside and strong efficiency with wedges, plus his comfort with Bermuda greens that will aid him at Sawgrass.