Valimaki is Gannon’s favorite high-ceiling play at the very top of the 6K range. The Finnish youngster is a ‘high-end ball-striker’ who racks up birdies in bunches, perfect for DraftKings’ scoring system. Matt noted that even a T40 finishes can smash at $6,900 because Valimaki’s 3-to-1 birdie-to-bogey ratio piles up points.

Valimaki sits 35th in strokes gained total, 23rd in approach and a sparkling 10th in putting this season, yet Pat found him at 150-1. He believes the Finn’s balanced profile—accurate driving, pinpoint wedges, hot flat stick—translates perfectly to Colonial’s small greens. Pat grabbed the triple-digit outright and a top-20 ticket, convinced linesmakers have not adjusted to Valimaki’s jump in iron play since switching to new Mizuno blades before the Florida swing.

Mike McClure's SportsLine model pegged Sami Valimaki at 40-1 as a live outright and top-five play, projecting him to challenge for the title. Valimaki has climbed to just outside the OWGR top-100 with only two missed cuts in individual events this season and a fourth-place finish at the Texas Children's Houston Open against a stronger field. His skill set maps perfectly to the Dunes layout: he ranks 14th in strokes gained: approach and 11th in strokes gained: putting, and his modest driving distance should not be a liability on this shorter track. The model believes his win probability far exceeds the implied 2.4%, making him a value bet for outrights and top-10/20 markets.

Kirschner’s 100-1 dart is Sami Valimaki, citing a blistering approach run of +4.2, +8.1, +4.8 and +3.2 strokes gained in his last four starts plus positive putting in eight of his last nine events. Valimaki already logged top finishes at comp courses Houston and Mexico, both long tracks that emphasize driver usage. Kirschner says those parallels and the Finn’s dual-threat iron/putter combo make him a live longshot in Dallas.

Reynolds finished with Sami Valimaki at 110-1 (DraftKings). The Finn has made seven consecutive cuts and placed 4th (Houston), T-12 (Valero) and T-18 (RBC Heritage) over his last three starts. He sits 3rd in this week’s Byron Nelson field for SG: Approach and owns runner-up form on a comp venue (Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico Open). Reynolds argues that Valimaki’s elite iron play combined with recent momentum could translate into the 25-under type winning score historically needed at Craig Ranch.

Sia Nejad identified Sami Valimaki as another cut-rate DFS and outright sleeper. Valimaki ranks near the top of the field in recent strokes-gained approach and pairs it with a reliable putter. While the driver can be erratic, Nejad noted the fairways at Craig Ranch are among the widest on Tour, muting that weakness. With scoring expected to push 30-under, Valimaki’s ability to pepper flags and pour in putts gives him legitimate winning equity at long odds and a bargain salary that may still fly under the ownership radar.

Pat Mayo said he could not ignore Sami Valimaki at 100-to-1 (with some 125-to-1 still available) once eight-place each-way payouts were posted. Valimaki popped repeatedly in Mayo’s stats-based research show thanks to an uptick in approach play and consecutive top-20 finishes on the DP World Tour. Mayo admitted outright victory on U.S. soil is a big ask, but the soft scoring at TPC Craig Ranch plus the expanded place terms provide a profitable hedge: “If he comes in third, I still get paid handsomely.” Listeners looking for long-shot exposure were encouraged to sprinkle small outright units paired with an each-way ticket rather than chasing shorter numbers in a Scheffler-dominated market.

Pointing to 110-1 odds, Barnett argued Sami Valimaki should be on every long-shot card. The Finn nearly stole the Mexico Open last year on another wide-open resort layout and finished T4 in Houston earlier this season. Over his last eight tracked rounds Valimaki is gaining more than a stroke per round with the irons and putting better than field average, a combo few in this price tier can claim. While his ball speed is merely average, Barnett said perfect Craig Ranch lies mute that deficiency and let pure iron players keep pace. Given multiple recent Sunday leaderboards, he sees real spike-week potential.

Byron Lindeque pounced on Sami Valimaki at 125-to-1, calling the number ‘flat-out wrong.’ Valimaki has gained 3.2 or more strokes on approach in five straight starts, including an eight-stroke explosion at the Houston Open where he closed with a 65. He also placed top-20 at both Vidanta and Memorial Park—two comps Lindeque sees for Craig Ranch. Although the Finn is merely average off the tee, his length is sufficient, and his putter trends neutral-to-positive on bentgrass. Lindeque expects Valimaki’s elite long-iron play (top-10 proximity from 200+) to shine on the stretched par-4s, giving him plenty of 15-to-20-foot birdie looks. With books still pricing him like a fringe Korn Ferry grad, Byron is betting the outright, backing the each-way, and mixing him into DFS builds under 5% ownership.

Neil Parker urged bettors to sprinkle Sami Valimaki at +11000 on DraftKings. The Finn brings three straight Top-20 finishes into Dallas, highlighted by a solo fourth at the Houston Open. Across those events, Valimaki ranks first in this field in true strokes gained on approach, eighth tee-to-green, and 26th in putting, having gained with both irons and flat stick every time out. With six worldwide wins already on his resume, Parker views the 26-year-old as far more dangerous than his 110-1 price suggests and a worthy long-shot outright ticket at TPC Craig Ranch.

Pat Mayo said Sami Valimaki is one of the first names he is clicking for outrights, top-20s, and DFS cores this week. Mayo stressed that Valimaki’s last three starts mirror the exact profile he wants at Craig Ranch: 2nd at Mexico (7,438-yard par-71 with three reachable par-5s), 4th in Houston, and 15th at Torrey Pines – all long, low-scoring setups that reward high-end approach play from 175-plus yards. Over that stretch the Finn is gaining 1.1 strokes per round on approach, second only to Scottie Scheffler in this field, while still picking up strokes off the tee. Mayo acknowledged Valimaki could open around 40-1 because of the watered-down field, but said he will “eat the number” anyway and differentiate with exposure in large-field GPPs where the public chases cheaper narratives. The ability to attack the three 200-plus-yard par-3s and rack up eagles on the par-5s keeps his ceiling intact even if the putter is merely average.

Andy Lack highlighted Sami Valimaki as his second click, pointing to the Finn’s eye-popping iron surge—he has gained 3+ strokes on approach in five straight starts, the best stretch of his career. Valimaki’s bomber-friendly resume includes a 4th at Memorial Park and a runner-up at Vidanta, the two comp venues Lack believes most closely mirror a softened Craig Ranch. Although Valimaki missed the Zurich cut by one with a partner, Lack expects that to inflate his outright price into the 80-1 range and plans to attack both outright and top-20 markets. With legitimate driving pop, red-hot long irons, and a putter Lack trusts more than Alex Smalley’s, Valimaki “checks every box” for this week’s driver-long-iron-putter recipe.

Bamford’s final dart is 90/1 on Sami Valimaki, pointing to the Finn’s elite iron and flat-stick numbers—8th in SG Approach and 14th in SG Putting for the 2025 PGA season. Valimaki generated 18 birdies at the Signature-level RBC Heritage and followed with 1 eagle and 22 birdies at the Texas Children’s Open, finishing only a couple conversions behind Min Woo Lee. His lack of driving accuracy is minimized by Craig Ranch’s generous landing areas, and Bamford notes that 70% of the event’s winning strokes have come via approach and putting. A two-time DP World Tour champion on longer layouts, Valimaki already has course reps here and grew up on Northern-European Bentgrass, making him a logical breakout candidate.

Bo McBrayer found value in Sami Valimaki, who is priced at 500 to 1 for the Valspar Championship. Remarking on Valimaki's ability to make the cut in four of his last five events, McBrayer sees potential for Valimaki to make his mark, albeit unsure if he can contend for a title. But Valimaki's odds are enticing enough for a small stake, making him a dark horse worth considering.