Matt Brown advised starting virtually every Memorial DFS roster with Scottie Scheffler. He said Scheffler sits in a tier of his own—there is a "big drop-off" after the top three of Scheffler, Bryson, and Rory—so paying the premium salary is worth it. Brown added that Muirfield Village rewards elite tee-to-green players and penalizes bogeys. Scheffler leads the TOUR in strokes-gained tee-to-green, ranks top-5 in par-5 scoring, and rarely makes big numbers, giving him both the highest floor and ceiling. Brown noted that cheap mid-range values such as Ben Griffin made it easy last week to jam Scheffler in, and similar punt plays exist this week, making the "start with Scottie" approach extremely viable again.

Skylar Hoke said he is finally willing to fade Scottie Scheffler outright at Muirfield Village. He argued the Memorial plays far too difficult to justify swallowing a sub-4-1 number when the chasing pack (Thomas, Schauffele, Cantlay, Morikawa, Aberg, et al.) is strong and well-suited to the venue. Even though Scheffler gained 20-plus strokes ball-striking at this course two years ago, the host emphasized that the world No. 1’s putter can still run cold – the very reason he failed to win that historic week. Hoke is comfortable losing if Scheffler goes back-to-back, preferring the normal outright market to the ‘without Scottie’ option for once.

Derek Farnsworth said he will be under-weight on Scottie Scheffler in single-entry builds even though the Texan checks every statistical box. Scheffler is T8 or better in six straight starts, leads this field by a mile tee-to-green, and is the defending champion, yet paying $12K leaves only $7.3K per remaining golfer. Farnsworth hates the depth in the low-7K/high-6K range outside of Bud Cauley, so he is fading Scheffler in his main lineup and capping him at roughly 20-30 % in MME. The call is roster-construction driven—elite floor, but uncomfortable downstream options make him less optimal this week.

Patrick McDonald said Scottie Scheffler is the clear cut play at Muirfield Village because the course demands exactly what Scheffler is doing better than anyone right now. Over the last three months Scheffler ranks 1st in this field in total strokes gained, tee-to-green, off-the-tee, and on approach, and he is even a top-10 putter – a club that had been his lone weakness earlier in the season. McDonald added that Jack Nicklaus designs typically favor a left-to-right ball flight, which is Scheffler’s natural shot shape. Scheffler’s recent form at the Memorial is 3rd, 3rd, 1st, so McDonald expects “another run at the title” and views him as worth paying up for in DFS builds or as the justified betting favorite in outrights and top-5 markets.

Jim Sannes pointed out that Scottie Scheffler has lengthened from +280 to 3-1 in the outright market since the Monday open. Sannes said the lack of early steam on Scheffler is "kind of annoying" after he grabbed +280, but it only makes the wager more attractive for listeners. He reiterated the same core case—defending champion, field-leading true strokes-gained at Muirfield Village, elite off-the-tee and iron splits, and a 72-man field with no Rory—but emphasized that a slightly longer number offers a few extra percentage points of expected value. If he were forced to make win picks, Sannes would still start with Scheffler at 3-1 alongside Daniel Berger at 40-1, confident that Scheffler’s statistical dominance offsets the short but now improved price.

Jim Sannes said Scottie Scheffler is a justifiable bet even at a skinny +280 outright number because everything lines up. Scheffler is the defending Memorial champion, finished 3rd here in both 2023 and 2021, and leads the entire field in true strokes-gained per round at Muirfield Village according to DataGolf. The course rewards total strokes-gained off the tee and precise iron play on tiny greens—areas where Scheffler already ranks No. 1 on TOUR this season. With Rory McIlroy absent, Sannes believes Scheffler’s combination of elite recent form, perfect course fit, and a reduced 72-man field makes the price too long, framing him as both the safest DFS spend-up and a viable outright wager despite the short odds.

Patrick McDonald said Scottie Scheffler would "run away from the field" and capture the Memorial by roughly five strokes. McDonald joked that Scheffler "hasn't won in a week" and is therefore "thirsty" for another trophy, pointing to the world No. 1's unrelenting tee-to-green dominance and recent history of lapping leaderboards when the putter cooperates. Bettors looking at outright or winning-margin markets were urged to treat Scheffler as the clear class of the field.

Rob Oller said Scheffler is a bet-and-forget play at +300 because his current run is the best since peak Tiger. The 28-year-old has already bagged the Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship this season, returns as the defending Memorial champion, and has two additional T3s at Muirfield Village (2021, 2023). Oller stressed course comfort and noted Scheffler gains so many strokes tee-to-green that he only needs an average putting week to be in the mix—if the putter heats up, Oller thinks everyone else is drawing dead.

Steve Bamford advised a win-only wager on Scottie Scheffler at 31/10, noting that the World No. 1 “wins in bunches” and has captured 10 of his last 27 starts (37% strike rate). Scheffler ranks 1st on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking and Approach over the current eight-tournament window and has finished 3rd, 3rd and 1st in his last three visits to Muirfield Village. With no Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm in this field, Bamford sees a thinner elite tier and points out that Scheffler has already successfully defended titles at the Waste Management and THE PLAYERS. Scheffler’s closing 36-hole score of –7 last week was two shots better than anyone despite a cold putter on Friday, reinforcing current form. Bamford concludes the tightened fairway landing areas and demanding Bentgrass greens reward Scheffler’s all-around dominance and make him the clear play to repeat.

Kevin Cunningham noted that oddsmakers have installed World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler as a commanding +280 favorite to win the 2025 Memorial Tournament. Cunningham pointed to Scheffler’s blistering recent form—victories at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship in the past three weeks, plus a T4 at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge—as evidence that the number-one ranking is translating to results. Scheffler is also the defending Memorial champion, giving him course-history credentials that reinforce his short price. Cunningham’s write-up implies bettors should not be surprised by the short odds, as Scheffler checks every box (current form, course history, and elite statistical profile) entering Muirfield Village.

Eric Polzin said Scottie Scheffler should still be the cornerstone of DFS builds and outright cards even at a salary that breaks roster construction. Scheffler has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in his last three trips to Muirfield Village and remains, in Polzin’s words, “the only golfer we can fully trust in 2025.” Polzin is planning roughly 50 % exposure to Scheffler on DraftKings and is comfortable firing the 3-to-1 outright number because the field lacks other bankable stars. He acknowledged the lineup squeeze the price tag creates but argued Scheffler’s combination of elite strokes-gained profile and flawless course history justifies the cost.

Byron Lindeque told listeners to fire on Scottie Scheffler in the Top-5 market at –150 to –163 because, in his words, the world No. 1 is “a bona-fide top-five player at this golf course.” Scheffler owns multiple top-5 finishes at Muirfield Village, ranks top-3 on TOUR in both driving distance and accuracy, and leads this field in strokes-gained from 200-plus yards – the yardage bucket that makes up 5 % more approaches here than on a typical layout. Lindeque is comfortable eating the juice, reasoning that Scheffler’s elite tee-to-green floor combined with sticky course history turns the Memorial into a quasi home game. He framed the wager as a bankroll anchor rather than a long-shot lottery ticket.

Byron Lindeque said Muirfield Village is tailor-made for Scottie Scheffler’s game and expects the world No. 1 to thrive yet again. Lindeque emphasized that the track rewards ‘total drivers’ who combine distance and accuracy, pointing to Scheffler’s top-3 rankings in both metrics. He added that 5 % more approach shots come from 200+ yards here than on a typical Tour stop, an iron window where Scheffler leads the field in strokes-gained. Course history is notoriously sticky at Jack’s Place, and Scheffler already owns multiple top-5s. Lindeque urged DFS players to eat the chalk and bettors to anchor cards around Scheffler despite the short price, calling him the safest ceiling-plus-floor play on the board.

Rich Gehman said Scottie Scheffler should again be the foundation of Memorial DFS builds even at $13,300. Gehman highlighted that Scheffler has gained roughly 43 strokes tee-to-green in just 12 rounds at Muirfield Village—nearly four strokes per round—and owns the sixth-best course-fit rating on RickRunGood’s model. Scheffler’s last three starts include a win at the Byron Nelson and only three total golfers finishing ahead of him. Gehman added that the signature-event cut (top 50 and ties) means the cheap $6K options are far more likely to play the weekend than at regular events, making it easier to jam Scheffler without sacrificing six-of-six lineup equity.

Andy Lack said it almost feels irresponsible not to pencil Scottie Scheffler in for another top-10 at Muirfield Village. Scheffler is leading the field in strokes-gained approach again this week at Colonial and, according to Lack, remains "the best iron player on the planet." Memorial is the most demanding approach course on Tour, so that strength gets magnified. Lack reminded listeners that Scheffler has posted a previous top-3 here while LOSING as many as six strokes putting, proving he can mask a cold flat stick on this setup. Even if he drops three-to-five strokes on the greens—exactly what happened at Colonial—Lack expects Scheffler to "waltz his way into the top 10" thanks to elite total driving and short-game play around thick Kentucky bluegrass rough. The actionable takeaway: keep Scheffler atop outright cards or use him as an anchor in DFS despite any perceived putting volatility because the course accentuates his tee-to-green edge.

Pat Mayo warned DraftKings players that Scheffler’s projected $300 salary gap over the next-highest golfer will push his ownership into the 40–50 % range in large-field GPPs. Mayo noted the "Scotty and a bunch of low-7K guys" roster construction becomes highly derivative when half the field chooses it, and the bottom-tier options may not generate enough scoring despite the generous Memorial cut line. While conceding Scheffler could still win "by three or four," Mayo argued the sharper tournament move is to build balanced lineups, pair a contrarian 9K stud with two mid-8K iron specialists, and hope Scheffler merely finishes top-5 instead of lapping the field. He suggested single-entry players either lock Scheffler in cash formats or fade entirely rather than hedge at heavy chalk levels.

Keith Stewart said the only sensible way to attack Scottie Scheffler this week is through intra-tournament leader markets. Scheffler is +1,200 to be first-round leader and +300 to be third-round leader, numbers Stewart called "compounding interest" compared to the unplayable +240 outright. Stewart reminded listeners Scheffler opened the CJ Cup with a 61 and owns the second-best Thursday scoring average on Tour (trailing only Keith Mitchell). If Scheffler starts slowly, Stewart expects him to grind into the 54-hole lead just like he did at Quail Hollow. With Colonial’s approach window (125-175 yards) matching Scheffler’s wheelhouse and firm conditions demanding his elite ball-striking, Stewart views both props as cleaner paths to profit than a four-round ticket.

Carver prefers betting Scheffler as an 11-1 first-round leader instead of swallowing the +240 outright. He argued Scheffler has opened hot in Texas all spring—gaining at least 4 strokes tee-to-green in Thursday rounds at both the Houston Open and Masters—and Colonial’s soft early conditions favor early wave scoring. By targeting FRL, bettors capture six-times the outright price while avoiding weekend variance.

Matt Gannon said you simply start line-ups with Scheffler this week. Scheffler’s worst realistic finish at Colonial is T4 in Gannon’s eyes, and the Texan is hunting a third straight win on a course that is tailor-made for him: tight driving corridors that reward precise tee balls plus lots of mid-iron approach shots, the exact parts of Scottie’s game that grade out No. 1 on TOUR. He has ‘done everything but win’ at Colonial, owns multiple runner-up/Top-5s here, and historically dominates shorter positional tracks across Texas. Gannon noted that if you jam Scottie’s $12K salary you still have roughly $7,200 per spot left, and there are plenty of viable punt options to make the build work.

Derek Farnsworth said he will be well over the projected 43-46% DFS ownership on Scottie Scheffler despite the slate-breaking $13,700 salary. Farnsworth argued that every data point favors Scheffler: back-to-back victories at the PGA Championship (+5 strokes margin) and CJ Cup (+8), finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the last three years at Colonial, Texas home-state narrative, elite tee-to-green profile on demanding layouts, and gained strokes putting in 10 of his last 11 starts. Bettors have Scheffler at an unheard-of +250 while everyone else is 20-1 or longer, a post-Tiger Woods level gap. Farnsworth dismissed any “major hangover” thesis by noting Scheffler won the RBC Heritage the week after his last major title. He advised building lineups around Scheffler and embracing the salary constraints rather than fading the clear win equity leader.

MacMillan passed on Scheffler’s short +250 outright price and instead bet him to win wire-to-wire at +1600. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained, Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months—1.49 better than the next-closest player in this field (Daniel Berger, +1.78). Given that massive separation, MacMillan sees genuine value in a market where Scheffler simply has to lead after every round rather than just Sunday.

Patrick McDonald said Scottie Scheffler is worth backing at 5/2 to win Colonial. Scheffler has ripped off back-to-back five-shot victories (CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship), joining Tiger Woods as the only player since 1985 to post consecutive wins by 5+ strokes. He has finished T2, T3 and 2nd in his last three starts at Colonial, so course fit is proven. McDonald emphasized the world No. 1’s ability to mentally reset the week after a major—he also won the 2024 RBC Heritage seven days after the Masters—which makes a post-PGA let-down unlikely. Sweeping both Dallas-Fort Worth events is a publicly stated goal, and Colonial’s precision layout accentuates the tee-to-green dominance that currently leads the PGA Tour. All arrows point to another win on home turf.

Kevin Cunningham noted that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters the Charles Schwab Challenge at +240 to win, a massive gap from the next‐shortest price (Daniel Berger at +2000). Cunningham pointed to Scheffler’s scorching form—he has been the betting favorite in every start this season and is coming off a convincing victory at the 2025 PGA Championship, his third career major—as the justification for such short odds. The combination of Scheffler’s season-long dominance and his recent ‘crushing the competition’ performance at Valhalla explains why bookmakers have installed him as an overwhelming favorite, making him the clear top outright betting option in the field despite the short number.

Pat Mayo told listeners to build cards under the assumption that Scottie Scheffler lifts the trophy at Colonial. Mayo rattled off Scheffler’s absurd course résumé—2nd, 3rd, 2nd the last three years with five rounds of 67 or better—and noted the Texan has already won twice in post-major weeks this season. Because Scheffler “does not mind ruining lives” and is teeing it up strictly to win, Mayo advised avoiding the crowded 20-to-50-to-1 outright tier and instead using ‘Without Scheffler’ markets, top-5/10 each-ways, or DFS line-ups that jam Scheffler and differentiate elsewhere. The goal, he said, is to profit even if the World No. 1 does what the numbers strongly suggest he will do: win the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Matt Brown said he routinely profits by waiting until after the opening round to bet Scottie Scheffler in placement markets. He reminded listeners that during last week’s event Scheffler was only two shots outside the top-10 and four outside the top-5 on Thursday, yet books were still hanging a live top-10 at –105 and a live top-5 at +240. Brown emphasized Scheffler’s unmatched consistency— rarely missing cuts and typically surging on Fridays— as the core reason the live number is mis-priced whenever he opens with a merely “ho-hum” round. Brown plans to hunt the same angle at the upcoming U.S. Open and, to a lesser extent, this week in Fort Worth if Scheffler posts an even-par opener.

Matt Gannon said he has no interest in fading Scottie Scheffler outright and will play the "without Scheffler" market instead. Gannon argued Colonial is tailor-made for Scheffler: it is another Texas stop he is motivated to win, its Harbour Town-style positional layout rewards his elite iron-spiking, and Scheffler just showed he can capture a trophy the week after a major (Harbour Town following the Masters). Gannon added that Scheffler wants "revenge" on Davis Riley after Riley upset him here last season. With books hanging Scheffler just under 3-to-1, Gannon thinks tying up bankroll in full-field outrights is pointless and recommends isolating the rest of the board in the without market.

For his official winner pick, Patrick McDonald again backed Scheffler. He noted the precedent: after Scheffler won the 2024 Masters he immediately captured the RBC Heritage the next week, so repeating a ‘major-then-regular-event’ double is well within his comfort zone. McDonald added that Scheffler has ‘been close’ at Colonial before and would relish adding a Texas-based title with his name on the trophy. The combination of elite approach play, prior course success, and personal motivation keeps McDonald on a Scheffler outright despite the short number.

Shane Bacon placed Scheffler on his ‘can’t win’ list, arguing that expecting three straight victories – Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and then Colonial – is a big ask even for the world No. 1. Bacon projects a ‘fourth- or fifth-place finish’ as more realistic, citing mental fatigue from the major grind and the upcoming U.S. Open as reasons to temper expectations. Bettors holding short Scheffler tickets can look to matchup fades or bet the ‘without Scheffler’ markets, per Bacon’s advice.

Patrick McDonald placed Scottie Scheffler on his short ‘can-win’ list despite the skinny odds. McDonald stressed that Scheffler is "one hot putter away" from another trophy and reminded listeners that Scheffler already owns a victory at Colonial. Course familiarity, elite tee-to-green form, and recent dominance – wins at the Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship – make Patrick comfortable betting Scheffler even at ultra-short prices, especially in single-entry DFS or one-and-done pools.

Nick Borrman said it is 'hard not to see him winning' the Charles Schwab Challenge and laid out a laundry list of reasons to back Scottie Scheffler in outright and top-five markets despite the short price. Scheffler owns a massive strokes-gained edge on this field—more than 3.0 per round over the past 12 months versus 1.7 for the next best (Fleetwood and Homa). Colonial rewards accuracy over raw power, yet Scheffler is the one player who excels at both, ranking top-5 in driving accuracy and distance while leading the TOUR in approach play. Course history is elite: finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the last three years, meaning only four total golfers have beaten him here since 2021. Borrman added that Colonial produces repeat contenders—no first-timer has won since 2001—so Scheffler’s reps matter. He also dismissed any post-major let-down angle, reminding listeners Scheffler won the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters last season. With manageable Texas winds (10–20 mph) and firm, fast conditions that favor his low-spin iron control, Borrman expects Scheffler to convert this time and advised bettors to swallow the chalk on outright, top-5, and top-10 wagers.

Bo McBrayer advised bettors to skip Scottie Scheffler’s pre-tournament +250 outright and hunt a better number in-play. A +250 ticket implies roughly a 50% chance to win, which Bo called poor value for someone who has never actually closed the deal at Colonial despite three straight top-3s. He expects an early 63 or 64 from the morning wave could push Scheffler’s price into the +500–+700 range by Thursday afternoon; that’s when Bo plans to hammer the live bet. Scheffler’s elite iron play (Tour leader in proximity), comfort on fast Texas bentgrass and a combined 13-stroke margin of victory in his last two starts still make him the most likely champion—just not at coin-flip odds before a shot is struck.

Bo McBrayer said bettors should keep riding Scottie Scheffler this week, arguing Colonial Country Club is tailor-made for the world No. 1. The par-70 layout forces players to club down, thread narrow dog-legged fairways and lean on short-iron precision—exactly the skill set Scheffler owns as "the best iron player on the planet." McBrayer noted Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in proximity to the hole and rarely compounds mistakes, a critical trait on Colonial’s firm, fast greens and 10–20 mph winds forecasted all four days. It is effectively a home game (Dallas resident, short drive to Fort Worth), and Scheffler has already proven horses-for-courses form here with a playoff loss to Sam Burns in 2022 and a solo runner-up to Davis Riley last year. Coming off a five-shot major victory at Quail Hollow and riding an all-time heater, McBrayer framed Scheffler as the clear outright bet and one-and-done anchor.

Iain MacMillan said the only palatable way to bet the overwhelming favorite is to grab Scottie Scheffler as a wire-to-wire winner at +1600 on DraftKings. Scheffler has gained +3.27 true strokes per round over the last six months, per DataGolf, a full 1.49 strokes better than anyone else in this field (next best: Daniel Berger at +1.78). He has finished top-3 at Colonial in each of the past three years and arrives off back-to-back victories won by a combined 13 shots. MacMillan noted the relatively weak, non-signature-event field leaves no one “playing close to the level of Scheffler,” making 16-1 worth laying for four straight rounds of front-running.

Chris Gregory said the +250 outright number on Scottie Scheffler is still worth a wager despite looking prohibitively short at first glance. Gregory pointed out that Scheffler is in video-game form, winning his last two starts by a combined 13 strokes—an eight-shot romp at the Byron Nelson and a five-shot victory at the PGA Championship. That heater has vaulted him back to World No. 1 and the top of the FedEx Cup standings. Course history reinforces the buy: Scheffler has finished inside the Top 3 at Colonial three years running (2022-2024) and has never missed the cut in five career appearances. With no other player in the field priced below +2000 and the next tier headlined by Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth, Gregory argued that Scheffler’s dominance plus his proven track record here justifies eating the short price in the outright market.

Byron Lindeque said he is still looking to attack Scottie Scheffler’s Round-3 (Saturday) scoring props by taking the OVER on posted numbers such as 69.5. Byron noted that the last time Scheffler gained more than four strokes on the field in a Saturday round was the 2024 Charles Schwab, meaning 20 straight events have produced relatively “flat” Saturdays even while Scottie has dominated Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays. Lindeque believes books are hanging Scheffler totals too low because of his gaudy overall form—40 SG total across his previous two starts—without isolating the Saturday dip. Until Scheffler shows a spike Saturday, Byron plans to keep betting his third-round overs and fading low-round markets in live betting and single-round DFS Showdown formats.

Byron Lindeque advised staying away from Scottie Scheffler outright bets because the books have priced him perfectly. Lindeque ran the math: betting $100 on Scheffler to win every start over the past 12 months would have produced just a $16 net profit despite multiple victories. Scheffler often opens between +250 and +400, making long-term ROI essentially flat. Byron acknowledged Scheffler’s historic form—40 strokes gained on the field across his last two events and two of the five best ball-striking weeks of his career—but said the combination of elite play and skim-milk pricing leaves no edge for outright bettors.

Andy Lack said the only sane outright strategy at Colonial is to fire in the “without Scottie Scheffler” market because Scheffler checks every box the course demands. Colonial rewards finding fairways and attacking with short-irons into firm, still-maturing greens—areas where Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes-gained this season. The Fort Worth native is voluntarily adding this stop (unlike the mandatory RBC Heritage), turning the week into a Texas homecoming with massive crowd support. Lack reminded listeners Scheffler cruised the week after winning the Masters, so a let-down narrative does not apply. With books hanging +200 outright and top contenders moving only a few points shorter in the ‘without’ pool, Lack advised siphoning off Scheffler risk and backing secondary options whose prices barely change.

Steve Bamford slammed eight units on Scottie Scheffler at 13/5, arguing the World No. 1 is set to steam-roll his hometown event. Scheffler has captured 10 of his last 26 worldwide starts (38% win rate) and historically strings victories together—4 wins in a six-start burst during 2022 and another 4 in five starts this spring. He already owns a Texas title this season (CJ Cup Byron Nelson) and lines up at Colonial with a flawless course record of 2nd-3rd-2nd across the last three years. Bamford notes the soft field—no McIlroy, Rahm or DeChambeau—plus the extra comfort of sleeping in his own bed. A firm, windy Colonial rewards elite tee-to-green play, and Scheffler sits 1st in the field in SG Tee-to-Green and SG Approach over the last eight events. Bamford believes the combination of peak form, course horses for courses data, and emotional motivation to win an event loved by the Scheffler family makes the short price worth swallowing.

Andy Lack said you simply have to keep riding Scottie Scheffler this week at Colonial. Scheffler already throttled a comparable Texas field by ten shots at TPC Craig Ranch – a layout Lack calls a worse statistical fit than Colonial – and now gets a track tailor-made for his strengths. Colonial is a par-70 with a raft of medium-length par-4s, making it one of the lowest long-iron venues on Tour. Scheffler ranks No. 1 in this field in proximity from 100-200 yards, exactly the range that accounts for more than 80 percent of Colonial approach shots. The course also finishes top-10 annually in combined SG:OTT and SG:APP difficulty once the firm, wind-exposed greens bake out, further accentuating Scheffler’s elite distance-control edge. Lack reminded listeners the World No. 1 already owns three top-3 finishes here and believes a win "feels etched in stone." He is anchoring every DFS lineup with Scheffler and will not bother with ‘without Scheffler’ betting markets, arguing the favorite still offers value even at prohibitive prices because the setup increases his win equity more than most weeks.

Andy Lack said Scottie Scheffler should be an auto-click at Colonial for both outrights and DFS. He argued that the club-down layout’s mega-firm greens amplify Scheffler’s tour-best distance control—the same edge that let him pull away late at Quail Hollow. Colonial’s widened corridors still keep driver usage to roughly 65%, so Scheffler’s iron play and apex height become an even bigger advantage than on true bomber tracks. Lack reminded listeners that Scheffler won by ten at TPC Craig Ranch, a course he considers a worse statistical fit than Colonial. Because of that, Lack is unlikely to bet the ‘without Scheffler’ markets and plans to anchor every DFS lineup with the World No. 1.

Silverstein dubbed Scheffler the lock for placement bets, noting he has finished inside the top-10 in 13 of his last 16 majors (81.3%). While Bryson DeChambeau is tempting, Scheffler’s ceiling and week-to-week stability make him the preferred top-10 and top-5 ticket.

The SportsLine model underscores Scottie Scheffler’s consistency as the main reason to back him at +450 despite the short number. Scheffler has finished T25 or better in every 2025 start, highlighted by 4th at the Masters, T3 at the Genesis Invitational, T2 at the Houston Open and a breakthrough victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson that ended an eight-month win drought. He’s been a PGA Championship specialist, landing T8 or better in four of his last five appearances, and his profile of elite tee-to-green play travels regardless of weather. While he’s still chasing his first major outside Augusta, the simulation assigns him the highest top-10 probability in the field and labels him a core DFS cash-game piece and a viable outright despite the low odds.

Patrick McDonald pushed back on the course-history worries and argued Scheffler is still a top-tier play because the putter—formerly his only weakness—has become a weapon in 2025. With caddie Teddy Scott on the bag, Scheffler has spent extra practice-round hours at Quail Hollow to close the familiarity gap. McDonald noted Scheffler already ranks first in strokes-gained tee-to-green and is now gaining with the flat stick, a combo that makes him a realistic threat for his first non-Augusta major. He advises keeping Scheffler in outright betting cards and anchoring high-salary DFS builds despite the unfamiliar venue.

Sobel warned bettors not to treat Scottie Scheffler as automatic this week. Scheffler has never played an individual stroke-play event at Quail Hollow and posted forgettable results during the 2022 Presidents Cup, where Sam Burns had to “carry his carcass.” Sobel emphasized that majors have been razor-thin the past two years, so even losing a single stroke to Quail-specific experience could drop Scheffler behind seasoned horses like McIlroy, Bryson and Xander. While acknowledging the world No. 1’s elite tee-to-green metrics, Sobel is downgrading Scheffler in outrights and prefers sprinkling him only in DFS lineups rather than building around him.

Smylie Kaufman chose Scottie Scheffler as his one-and-done play, noting Scheffler has been "trending" and is poised to "get back in the major circle." Listed at +425, Scheffler is the betting favorite, and Kaufman expects the elite tee-to-green form that produced top-5s in four of his last five starts to translate into a Quail Hollow shootout with Rory. Kaufman is willing to hold Xander Schauffele for the U.S. Open, believing Scheffler’s ceiling is highest right now.

Brandon Gdula noted that Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 form actually tops Rory McIlroy’s despite Rory’s three wins, citing DataGolf’s true strokes-gained metric: Scheffler +2.91 per round versus Rory +2.72. With both golfers now sitting at +450, Gdula refuses to bet either outright but would lean Scheffler in head-to-head markets if prices are equal or Scheffler is even a slight favorite. Conversely, he would only bet Rory if the market offered +105 or longer in a matchup, which looks unlikely. The takeaway: fade both in outrights at +450, but prioritize Scheffler in any even-money matchup because the data says he is objectively the better golfer in 2025 even without Quail Hollow history.

Andy Lack backed Scottie Scheffler to win at +500, arguing that Quail Hollow’s over-seeded rough and straightforward architecture will reward Scheffler’s elite long-iron play more than raw driving distance. Lack believes the course sets up like a standard PGA Tour ‘signature’ stop, conditions where Scheffler routinely gains multiple strokes on approach. With fewer quirky features than Oak Hill or LACC, Lack expects the world No. 1 to avoid the occasional non-Masters major hiccups and collect his third major title.

Guy Boston ranked Scottie Scheffler alongside Rory as the only other player worth eating short odds for, noting Scheffler combines top-tier driving accuracy with elite distance—a rare combo that Datagolf’s course-fit tool flags as golden at Quail Hollow. Scheffler grades out positively in the 226-plus-yard approach bucket, remains positive from both fairway and rough, and sits No. 2 in Boston’s weighted model that emphasizes 30 % total off-the-tee/ distance inputs. Even on a "really hard course" where +500 feels pricey, Boston thinks Scheffler’s tee-to-green floor and recent form make him a must-include in outright cards and DFS core builds.