Ron Wood advised staking 2 points on Scottie Scheffler to win the Hero World Challenge at 6/4 odds. Wood’s case is straightforward: Scheffler is the world No. 1 and owns course-horse numbers at Albany, finishing 2nd in 2021 and 2022 before winning by three shots in 2023 and by six in 2024. He has also captured six of his last 12 worldwide starts, two of those majors, so current form is elite. With Viktor Hovland and the next four players in the OWGR sitting out, the 20-man field lacks anyone near Scheffler’s ceiling. Albany’s wide fairways and a calm weather forecast reduce volatility and amplify his ball-striking edge. Wood concluded that 6/4 is a fair price for a near three-peat and labeled Scheffler a must-back outright.

Esten McLaren said he is passing on Scottie Scheffler’s outright ticket at +150 despite the two-time defending champion’s gaudy track record at Albany (wins by six strokes last year and three the year before, runner-up in his first two trips). McLaren argued the 40% implied win probability is simply too rich for an exhibition with only a $15 profit on a $10 stake, noting the 20-man field and birdie-fest setup create more variance than the price suggests.

Alex Hunter said Scottie Scheffler is a cash-game must-play for the Hero World Challenge, arguing that fading him at $14,900 on DraftKings would be "foolish." Hunter highlighted Scheffler’s video-game course history at Albany—runner-up, runner-up, win, win—with the two victories coming by three and six shots. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Scheffler at +150 to win the 20-man, no-cut event, a 40% implied probability. He has captured six wins in his last 12 starts, most recently the Procore Championship in September, and another title would mark career win No. 20. Hunter stressed that the blend of elite current form, tiny field size, and proven dominance on the Ernie Els-designed layout makes Scheffler the centerpiece of any DFS build this week.

Despite acknowledging his World No. 1 status and tune-up win at the Procore Championship, Josh Schrock projected Scottie Scheffler for a muted 2-2-1 record and a singles defeat to Jon Rahm. He cited Scheffler’s 9-and-7 foursomes humiliation in Rome as proof the Texan can be had in match play and expects captain Keegan Bradley to ration instead of max out his session count. For bettors in top-U.S.-scorer pools or DFS players weighing a five-figure salary, Schrock recommends a relative fade, especially in Sunday singles matchups against Europe’s alpha.

Sobel advised betting Scottie Scheffler at +300 to be top U.S. point scorer and +550 to top the entire event, sprinkling +1600 on a perfect 5–0–0 week. He argues the world No. 1 is the only American all but locked to play five sessions, so bettors get volume plus peak form. He notes Dustin Johnson went 5-0 in 2021 and believes Scheffler, fresh off winning the Procore Championship at +225 against 143 players, is better positioned to replicate that feat. If Scheffler bags five points, the remaining team would need just 9.5 of 23 to hit the 14.5-point cup-winning threshold—a path Sobel says is entirely realistic.

Derek Farnsworth said fading Scottie Scheffler in DFS this week despite his status as the field’s best player. Scheffler is $14.4K on DraftKings and $15K on FanDuel, leaving only about $7,100 per golfer for the remaining five roster slots. Farnsworth dislikes most of the 6K range and thinks lineups that jam Scheffler will struggle to get a 6-of-6 through the cut. Even with sportsbooks listing him at +225 to win, the salary-cap opportunity cost is too steep, so he prefers a balanced roster construction without Scheffler.

Pat Perry fired a 60-to-1 parlay: Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+165) in the Commanders-Packers game, Cowboys spread (-108) vs the Giants, a ProCore hole-in-one prop (+125), Patrick Cantlay top-20 (-140), and Scottie Scheffler outright (+210). Perry likes Deebo’s red-zone usage, trusts Dallas against "a lifeless" Giants offense, believes the course regularly yields aces, notes Cantlay’s recent 2nd at the Tour Championship and top-10 at St. Jude, and backs Scheffler’s clear class edge.

Barnett’s "get real crazy" play is Scottie Scheffler outright at +210 parlayed with Europe to win the Ryder Cup at +150, returning +675. He argued Scheffler should be even shorter than +210 given how little nuance the course demands, and he called Europe plus money "insane" considering the strength of its lineup and home-course advantage.

Rick Gehman said Scottie Scheffler is a lock-button DFS play even at $14,400. Scheffler opened at +210— the shortest outright number Gehman has tracked for any full-field event in seven years — and is gaining a full stroke more per round than anyone else in the field over every look-back window. Gehman noted the salary ties Scheffler’s career high (matched only at the 2025 U.S. Open), yet DraftKings pricing still underrates him relative to win equity. The only knock is course inexperience: this is Scheffler’s first start at Silverado and only the second new tournament he has added since early 2023. Historically he still gains roughly four strokes on debut courses and jumps to six-plus on repeat visits, so Gehman rated the concern as “99 out of 100” rather than a true red flag. With no Rory or Xander in Napa and a steep talent cliff after Justin Thomas, Gehman plans to jam Scheffler into as many lineups as possible and build value elsewhere.

Eric Polzin argued that paying up for Scottie Scheffler is still worth it even though it forces a studs-and-duds build. He expects very few lineups (projected under 10%) to get all six golfers through the cut this week; 4-of-6 could be the norm. If Scheffler delivers the ‘high-likelihood’ top-5 finish Polzin pegs at roughly 2-to-1 odds, that alone can put those lineups ahead of balanced rosters that lack his ceiling.

Eric Polzin said Scheffler is finally priced so aggressively on DraftKings that you actually have to debate paying up. Scheffler carries two-to-one outright odds and the highest salary in the field, so Polzin warned that the usual "lock him and move on" approach hurts roster construction this week. He would only play Scheffler if the rest of the lineup still grades well; otherwise a balanced build should outperform at the Pro Core Championship.

Garry Smits acknowledged that betting Scottie Scheffler is pricey—BetMGM lists him at +225—but still argued the world No. 1 merits consideration. Scheffler has never played the Procore Championship and has yet to lift a trophy in California, yet his overall Californian record reads 18 starts, 15 made cuts, and eight top-10s. Smits emphasized that Scheffler’s elite ball-striking travels anywhere (“he could win in a parking lot”) and that his presence here is part of a purposeful Ryder Cup tune-up requested by captain Keegan Bradley, giving Scheffler competitive reps rather than a hit-and-giggle. In a field where most challengers open at +1400 or longer, Smits feels Scheffler’s floor/ceiling combo justifies the short number for outrights, and he is a near-lock for DFS cash-game lineups.

Haslbauer’s model immediately installed Scheffler at No. 1, and the analyst expects the world-beater to treat this ‘team-building’ stop as a business trip. Silverado de-emphasizes SG: Off-the-Tee and rewards elite second-shot play, a blueprint tailor-made for Scheffler’s Tour-leading SG: Approach and Birdies-or-Better rates. Add in plus Par-5 scoring and solid Poa splits, and Haslbauer believes bettors shouldn’t be scared off by a short price or DFS salary—Scheffler projects for the highest win equity in the field and remains a justifiable anchor for outrights, one-and-done pools, and high-stakes DFS builds.

Brandon Gdula said Scottie Scheffler is actually showing betting value even at a short +210 outright number (-190 top-5). Gdula’s model makes Scheffler a +195 fair price because Scheffler is gaining +3.66 true strokes per round over his last 50 rounds, 1.59 shots better than anyone else in the Napa field. Scheffler ranks 1st in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and approach, 2nd off-the-tee, 7th around-the-green, and 7th in putting. The only blemish is 32nd in driving accuracy, but Gdula noted the world No. 1’s all-around dominance should offset Silverado’s tight 26-yard fairways. The analyst framed Scheffler as a rare instance where a favorite is still a plus-EV outright bet.

Andy Roberts named Scottie Scheffler his "confident" outright bet at 5/2. Roberts pointed out that Scheffler has already piled up five PGA Tour victories this season and rolls in off a blistering run of 1st-3rd-4th-1st over his last four starts. With two weeks of rest after spending time with his wife and infant son, Scheffler arrives fresh and motivated to erase the sting of a poor showing at the last Ryder Cup. Roberts stressed that Silverado’s North Course usually turns into a birdie fest—an ideal setup for Scheffler, whose tee-to-green dominance allows him to lap weaker fields when the putter cooperates. Key rivals Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele skipped Napa, so Roberts believes the World No. 1 faces an unusually soft field and can “run away” with the trophy if the Spider putter heats up even modestly.

Harrison acknowledged Scottie Scheffler’s "machine-like" five-win season makes him a deserving +205 favorite, but he cautioned bettors against laying that pre-tournament price. A +205 outright implies roughly a 33% win probability—a number Harrison considers too rich in a 144-man field, even for the game’s hottest player. He advised either passing on Scheffler altogether or waiting for an in-tournament dip before getting involved.

Brown advised holding fire on Scottie Scheffler pre-tournament at +170 and instead waiting for an in-round drift. Because Scheffler tees off last on Thursday, earlier groups—especially ball-strikers like Viktor Hovland or Akshay Bhatia—could post a three- or four-under number and nudge Scheffler’s price north of 2-to-1 before he even hits a shot. Brown said the odds are unlikely to get worse but have room to improve, and he is prepared to add Scheffler outright only if the live number cracks +200.

Matt Brown said bettors should not get cute and should simply back Scottie Scheffler outright at +150 (as high as +170 at BetMGM) to win the Tour Championship. Brown pointed out that Scheffler has finished no worse than T-8 in 13 consecutive starts and just came from four shots back on Sunday to win last week while leading the field off-the-tee, ranking first in greens-in-regulation and gaining over four strokes around the green, including an 81-foot chip-in. Wes Reynolds added context that Scheffler was only +115 here last year when he began with a two-shot lead, yet he is nearly the same price this year with everyone starting at even par, underscoring how dominant the market views him. Ted Scott is back on the bag, further solidifying the case. With a 30-man field that includes several perceived non-threats such as Andrew Novak and Nick Taylor, Brown argued Scheffler effectively has to beat roughly 22 realistic opponents, making the short number justifiable for outright bets and DFS anchor builds.

Brandon Gdula said it is simply too thin to fade Scottie Scheffler in a 30–man Tour Championship field. To pass on him you have to assume two improbable things: several mid-tier names simultaneously post their best golf while Scheffler, who leads the TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total and Tee-to-Green this season, plays poorly. Gdula prefers locking Scheffler at $14,000, then differentiating by leaving salary on the table or pivoting to lower-rostered value plays. Chalk will be high across the board, but Scheffler’s ceiling and built-in starting-strokes advantage make him the safest path to first-place DFS equity this week.

Brandon Gdula advised jamming Scottie Scheffler into every FanDuel lineup at $14,000 despite the sticker shock. With only 30 golfers at East Lake, Scheffler’s salary still leaves an average of $9,200 for the final five roster spots, a build Gdula finds easy to execute. He argued that fading Scheffler requires a parlay of unlikely events: Scheffler would need to finish sixth or worse while a pricey Rory McIlroy–Tommy Fleetwood pairing goes 1-2, or several ‘tier-two’ names simultaneously post ceiling weeks. Because managers can still afford value plays even after rostering Scheffler, the opportunity cost is low. Gdula concluded that paying up for the world No. 1’s combination of elite ball-striking and win equity is the optimal DFS strategy, and lineups can differentiate elsewhere by leaving salary on the table or mining lower-rostered cheap options.

Brandon Gdula said he will not wager on Scottie Scheffler at the current +150 outright price for the Tour Championship. Gdula acknowledged Scheffler’s absurd recent form—his model shows a floor of +1.4 strokes gained per round, fully 1.7 strokes better than the next-best golfer—and he understands why the books have installed him as a prohibitive favorite. Still, Gdula needs something closer to 2-to-1 before he could justify the ticket. The top-five market is already juiced to –340, underscoring how little room exists for value. Instead, Gdula prefers looking deeper on the board where multiple players can match Scheffler’s ceiling if the World No. 1 merely putts at field average.

Bo McBrayer locked in Scottie Scheffler at +180 and said he would endorse any line that still shows a plus sign. Scheffler leads the tour in every tee-to-green metric and arrives at East Lake in peak form. In McBrayer’s view, getting the dominant player in a 30-man field at any kind of positive price is a rare opportunity and the simplest way to anchor a betting card.

Bo McBrayer said he is comfortable betting Scottie Scheffler outright at +150 (he grabbed +180 earlier) to win the Tour Championship. McBrayer framed the 30-man, no-cut format as a massive edge for Scheffler, noting that the World No. 1 gains most when course difficulty rises. East Lake’s narrow fairways, penal wet Bermuda rough, and tiny greens reward elite accuracy off the tee and precise iron play—two areas where Scheffler leads the Tour in strokes-gained. Bo also cited Scheffler’s "newfound putting stroke that’s been lights-out this year" as the final piece that turns his statistical dominance into wins, as evidenced by victories at both The Open and last week’s BMW. With plus-money available in a field “made for him to win,” McBrayer believes Scheffler is still under-priced and belongs at the top of every outright betting card.

David Barnett said Scottie Scheffler is the only logical outright this week. Barnett called Scheffler "unstoppable," noting the Sunday chip-in at BMW, the fact that he already banked $15 million for leading the FedEx Cup through Wyndham and BMW, and that he very nearly won St. Jude with a replacement caddie. He added that East Lake is only about 7,500 yards and sits on familiar Bermuda greens—both traits that accent Scheffler’s strengths better than longer venues such as Caves Valley. Because Barnett sees no course where Scheffler can’t win and believes the staggered format actually helps him, his betting card starts and largely ends with Scheffler outright, possibly paired with a single top-10 prop to juice odds.

David Barnett said the Tour Championship betting card basically begins and ends with Scottie Scheffler at +150. Barnett pointed out that Scheffler has already banked $23.9 million in 18 starts this season, winning five times and finishing inside the top-10 in 15 of those events. He reminded listeners that Scheffler gained 10.5 strokes on the field at East Lake last year en route to the title and now faces only 29 opponents with no starting-stroke cushion required. Oddsmakers list Scheffler at a prohibitive –1250 just to finish top-10, underscoring how dominant his baseline is. In Barnett’s view, the combination of elite recent form, proven course history and the small, no-cut field justifies eating the short price and locking in the outright even at +150.

Mills suggested pivoting from Scheffler’s +150 outright price to the Top-American market. By removing European threats like McIlroy, Aberg, Fleetwood and Hovland, Scheffler only has to beat the U.S. contingent, with the next shortest American being Henley at +1100. Mills recommends staking an extra unit there if you already like Scheffler to win, calling it ‘way more sense’ than the low outright.

Ben Everill said the best way to profit from Scottie Scheffler this week is through derivative markets instead of the tiny outright number. Scheffler has a reputation for slow Thursdays, yet Everill reminded listeners that last year the Texan posted the low opening round at East Lake and now faces only 29 opponents. With that context, Everill prefers Scheffler to record 5-plus birdies, finish inside the first-round top-5, or even grab first-round leader—prices that still sit in the mid-single to low-double-digit range instead of the sub-+250 outright. He added that if Scheffler takes off early, bettors can still attack round-by-round matchups later, but these props capture ceiling value while avoiding the “without Scheffler” markets that merely slash the odds board.

Farnsworth warned that Scottie Scheffler will be rostered by nearly half the DraftKings field and more than 70 % on FanDuel. In large-field DFS tournaments he advises leaving $400–$500 of salary unused when you start builds with Scheffler. With only 30 golfers available, max-salary Scheffler builds are almost certain to be duplicated; sacrificing a bit of cap space preserves uniqueness without meaningfully reducing projection.

Keith Stewart said bettors should not overthink the short +150 number and simply ride Scottie Scheffler to win the Tour Championship. Stewart pointed out Scheffler has captured five wins in his last 10 starts and has sat atop the world rankings for 118 consecutive weeks. He stressed that East Lake’s par-70 layout rewards fairway finders and elite ball-strikers, both Scheffler specialties, and that the penal Bermuda rough magnifies the edge. Vegas has set the winning score at −17.5, and Scheffler begins the staggered-start format with the season-long points lead plus his caddie Ted Scott is back on the bag. Stewart argued those factors combine to give Scheffler a Tiger-like advantage over the 29-man field and make him the clear betting choice to lock up the FedEx Cup.

Eric Polzin said Scottie Scheffler is the simplest click in both betting cards and DraftKings builds for East Lake. Scheffler grades No. 1 in his 9-to-5 model for recent form, stat fit, course-history and specialist rank; he is also third overall in the field despite already being the defending champion and owning a runner-up here in another year. Polzin framed the Tour Championship as Scheffler’s event to lose because the reduced 30-man field amplifies Scheffler’s consistency. He encouraged outright tickets on Scheffler and endorsed using the Texan as a spend-up cornerstone in DFS cash and GPP line-ups.

Eric Polzin said bettors and DFS players should anchor lineups and outright tickets around Scottie Scheffler at East Lake because this sets up as his event to lose. Scheffler ranks No. 1 in every one of Polzin's four model buckets—recent form, statistical fit (birdie-or-better, ball-striking, 200-plus approach, par-5 scoring), specialist grade, and course history. He has posted first, sixth, and second in the last three Tour Championships, proving he can dominate on the long par-70 layout. Polzin emphasized that even after stripping out the old staggered-start scoring Scheffler still grades best, underscoring his elite tee-to-green play and comfort at East Lake. With only 30 players in the field Polzin views Scheffler’s unrivaled floor-and-ceiling combination as irreplaceable in DFS cash builds and worth eating the short outright price in betting markets.

Rick Gehman said Scottie Scheffler is going to win the Tour Championship and should be the core DFS play this week. Scheffler has never lost strokes tee-to-green at East Lake and, after hemorrhaging putts in his first four visits, gained a full stroke per round on the greens last year—the most improved area of his game. He is 30-under for the FedExCup Playoffs, five shots clear of the next closest player, and made Rory McIlroy 'look silly' during their BMW pairing by constantly playing from better positions. Gehman plans to roster Scheffler in roughly 70 % of his DraftKings lineups and urged listeners to 'act accordingly.'

Kenny Kim said he is leaving Scottie Scheffler off every outright ticket for the Tour Championship even though he called Scheffler “inevitable” and compared him to Thanos. Kim’s reasoning is simple: the books have already baked Scheffler’s recent dominance—including Sunday’s 17th-hole chip-in and the elimination of his three-putt issues—fully into the price, leaving no betting value. Rather than laying short odds on the overwhelming favorite, Kim wants to deploy his bankroll on longer shots and placement markets where potential ROI is meaningful.

Kevin Cunningham said bettors should not be surprised that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opened as a +150 outright favorite at East Lake. Cunningham pointed out that Scheffler has "won seemingly everything this season," including last week’s BMW Championship, and already pocketed the top FedEx-Cup regular-season bonus. While the Tour has eliminated the staggered-starts format this year—meaning Scheffler will not receive the two-shot head start he enjoyed in 2024—Cunningham argued the market still considers him the man to beat based on his dominant form and fresh confidence from the BMW win. All 30 players will begin at even par in a traditional four-round stroke-play event, yet Scheffler’s recent tee-to-green brilliance and momentum keep him atop the board, making the short price understandable for outright tickets or one-and-done pools.

Pat Mayo warned bettors against laying the likely +175 outright price on Scottie Scheffler at East Lake. Despite Scheffler leading virtually every ball-striking metric, Mayo pointed out that back-to-back tournaments—Caves Valley and the BMW—have ended without a win, meaning anyone chasing him at sub-2/1 the last two weeks is already down units. Mayo’s take: the combination of tiny payout and golf’s inherent variance makes Scheffler unplayable in the outright market. He recommended diverting bankroll toward high-payout niches like first-round top-10 bets (e.g., on J.J. Spaun) or spreading exposure across mid-tier outrights instead of tying up significant capital in Scheffler.

Jason Sobel advised locking in Scottie Scheffler at +180 to win the Tour Championship/FedEx Cup right now rather than waiting for tournament week. At the moment, Scheffler only needs to overtake one player on the points list instead of beating 29 players once play begins. Sobel added that he doubts Ludwig Aberg or Robert MacIntyre will erase Scheffler’s cushion before East Lake, so bettors are essentially paying the same +180 price for a much simpler ask. If Scheffler enters the finale only four shots back, the number almost certainly shortens, making the current price the better expected-value play.

Andy Lack advised fading Scottie Scheffler at Caves Valley, saying, “There are better golf courses for Scheffler than this.” The wider fairways reduce Scheffler’s tee-to-green edge, and Lack wants “no part of the guy” at prohibitive odds or premium DFS salary. He is unlikely to re-enter the ‘without Scheffler’ market and prefers allocating bankroll to players whose length allows them to exploit the dog-legs more aggressively.

Shane Bacon said Scottie Scheffler will not win the BMW Championship because longtime caddie Ted Scott is out this week and local chaplain Mike Schaefer is picking up the bag. Bacon believes the Scheffler-Scott partnership is a competitive edge—particularly with green-reading and emotional composure—and called it "non-negotiable." Without that familiar voice, he expects Scheffler’s decision-making and short-game swagger to slip just enough to make his current favorite odds a bad value for outright or DFS captain builds.

Jim Sannes called Scottie Scheffler a must-start in DFS at $13,100, describing the price as a “bargain” given Scheffler’s week-to-week consistency. In a 49-man BMW field Sannes thinks Scheffler would have to finish outside the top 10 for a fade to pay off, something his ball-striking profile makes unlikely. Sannes plans to pair Scheffler with Rory McIlroy and back-fill value plays such as Harris English or Harry Hall, confident that Scheffler’s floor and ceiling justify squeezing every dollar around him.

Brandon Gdula argued that Scottie Scheffler’s ultra-short +220 outright price and top DFS salary are justified given the massive gap between Scheffler and the rest of the field. Using DataGolf’s true strokes-gained query, Scheffler is averaging +3.57 strokes per round over his last eight starts, more than 1.3 shots better than the next-closest competitor in the same span. Recent finishes read T7, T6, T8, WIN, T3 after winning three of four starts earlier in the season. He leads the BMW field in tee-to-green over the past three months and is eighth in putting. Splits show a 94th-percentile make rate inside 15 feet; the only weakness is long putts (25th percentile), suggesting further upside if variance flips. Scheffler finished T22 here in 2021 while ranking 5th in approach, a performance Gdula views as Scheffler’s floor now that his game has ascended. Given the 5.3-stroke gap between Scheffler and the second-best player by six-month form, Gdula is willing to eat the chalk in DFS cash games and sees value even at sub-3/1 in betting markets.

Matthew Wiley is trimming his usual overweight exposure to Scottie Scheffler for the first time all season. He argued the BMW could turn into a mini-scorefest—an environment where Scheffler’s balky putter has repeatedly held him back—and pointed out that Scheffler will not have caddie Ted Scott on the bag this week. Wiley believes that combination makes the world No. 1’s ultra-short outright price and $12K-plus DFS salary hard to justify, especially when other elite ball-strikers (Rory, Fitzpatrick, Cam Young) come cheaper. Wiley is not full-on fading Scheffler, but recommends being "lighter than the field" in both outright and DFS exposure.

Matthew Wiley’s model has Scottie Scheffler "by far and away the best" play this week. The recent surge in putting—helped by caddie Ted Scott—has erased Scheffler’s lone weakness, while his approach numbers remain first by a mile. Wiley dismissed Scheffler’s poor driving accuracy because the course offers generous landing areas and birdies, not bogey avoidance, will decide the tournament. Even though Scheffler sits safely atop the FedEx Cup race and "doesn’t need to do anything," Wiley still wants him on betting cards and in DFS builds, arguing his new-found putting touch gives him unmatched ceiling in a projected −19 shoot-out.

Matt Every said he is riding with Scottie Scheffler to win the BMW Championship even though there is uncertainty around regular caddie Ted Scott. Every acknowledged the on-course communication looked off when Scheffler’s stand-in looper was on the bag last Sunday, yet reminded listeners that Scheffler fired a 62 during the third round of the PGA Championship with that same fill-in. Caves Valley is a 7,600-yard par-70 that Every expects to play soft enough to encourage low scores, which amplifies Scheffler’s tee-to-green dominance and long-iron edge. With no cut in a 49-man field and $3.6 million to first, Every believes the combination of Scheffler’s bomber profile and four-round scoring safety makes him worth the short number in betting markets and a lock-button play in DFS contests.

Although Scottie Scheffler tops every metric in Farnsworth’s model and briefly led last week’s event, the analyst plans to be underweight. At his lofty DFS price it is “hard to make a lineup that’s going to be unique,” and Scheffler’s popularity compounds the duplication risk in a 50-man no-cut field. Farnsworth believes balanced constructions featuring two 10K golfers provide comparable upside with far less ownership leverage, so Scheffler is an intentional fade despite being the field’s best player on paper.

Gannon advised fading Scottie Scheffler despite his consistency. Scheffler costs roughly $2K more than McIlroy and, in Gannon’s view, the course asks for Rory’s skill set—particularly driver-putter scoring—more than Scottie’s. He expects a ho-hum T7 result that won’t pay off a top-of-the-board salary in a 50-man DFS slate, making Scheffler a leverage fade.

Rick Gehman said spending $13,400 on Scottie Scheffler is still a slam-dunk DFS move. Scheffler has finished no worse than eighth in every tournament since THE PLAYERS and is gaining an outrageous 3.5 strokes per round over his last 36— almost double the historical benchmark for a world No. 1. The next-closest golfer in this field is a full 1.5 strokes behind. Even without regular caddie Ted Scott on Sunday in Memphis, Scheffler still gained 2.5 strokes and finished T-3. With only 50 players getting four guaranteed rounds on a soft, birdie-friendly Caves Valley, Gehman expects Scheffler’s floor/ceiling combo to dwarf the field and will be massively overweight on him in DraftKings lineups.

Byron Lindeque explained why he is leaving Scottie Scheffler out of his single-entry DFS lineups. At a $13.4K price tag and a projected 40 % roster rate, roughly 400 of 1,000 single-entry contest rosters will include Scheffler, dramatically increasing duplication risk. By fading him and instead starting with Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas, Byron frees salary, gains differentiation, and only has to beat 600 non-Scheffler builds rather than navigating thousands of Scotty combinations in a large GPP. He concedes Scheffler could still appear in the overall optimal lineup, but believes leverage outweighs the risk in tighter fields.

Byron Lindeque told listeners to attack Scottie Scheffler’s top-10 market instead of laying the prohibitive –1500 outright at the BMW Championship. Scheffler has not finished worse than T25 all season and has rattled off nothing but top-10s since THE PLAYERS. Because a top-10 ticket cashes almost as often as an outright while paying roughly +24% on stake ($420 wins $100), Lindeque considers it the far smarter way to monetize Scheffler’s historic consistency without risking a “mortgage”-sized stake on the outright.

Lindeque urged listeners to take Scotty Scheffler at –420 for a top-10 instead of laying –1500 for a top-20. He noted Scheffler has not finished outside the top-20 all season and hasn’t missed the top-10 since The Players, arguing the extra return is worth the marginal risk increase. ProfitX is posting the best price in market, and Byron thinks Scheffler’s current tee-to-green dominance makes even a –420 ticket ‘as close to free money as you get in golf.’

Steve Bamford said to back Scottie Scheffler outright at 5/2 despite the skinny number. He compared Scheffler’s current tear—12 victories in his last 33 worldwide starts, a 36 % win rate and roughly 50 % top-3 rate—to Jason Day’s 2015 playoff blitz. Bamford noted that Scheffler nearly stole last week’s FedEx St. Jude even while missing regular caddie Ted Scott, highlighting how reliable the World No. 1 is regardless of circumstances. Caves Valley’s 40-yard fairways and lack of penal rough reward Scheffler’s elite tee-to-green profile (No. 1 in SG OTT and SG Approach over the past eight-event window). With bookmakers likely to post him at 2/1 or shorter in next week’s 30-man Tour Championship, Bamford wants the insurance of locking in this price now and expects Scheffler to treat every playoff start as a must-win under the new equal-strokes format.

Kevin Cunningham wrote that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler opened as the clear betting favorite at +230 for the 2025 BMW Championship. He underscored Scheffler’s scorching run of "another top-five finish" at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship and his continued grip on the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking, arguing those results fully explain why sportsbooks have installed him well ahead of the rest of the field.