Despite Fleetwood’s excellent Renaissance Club history, Gannon is out at $9,900 because he projects to be heavy chalk. Gannon pegs Fleetwood’s realistic floor at about T11, which rarely pays off as the fourth-highest salary. With wind and links volatility, he prefers lower-owned pivots in the same range.

Bo McBrayer said he is locking in Tommy Fleetwood as his one-and-done selection because the Englishman keeps churning out six-figure paydays without actually having to win. Fleetwood already banked Bo nearly half a million earlier in the season, and McBrayer expects another healthy check thanks to Fleetwood’s current streak of top-five and top-ten finishes. He views it as a "take the money and run" week: Fleetwood rarely closes tournaments on U.S. soil, but Bo believes a return to European turf, combined with the Renaissance Club’s familiar links setup, gives him a floor of a top-10 and outside shot at a breakthrough victory. The goal is safety in a season-long format, and McBrayer trusts Fleetwood’s links consistency more than chasing a volatile longshot.

Pat Fitzmaurice advised taking Tommy Fleetwood at +400 for a top-five (or a top-10) finish but skipping any outright wagers. Fleetwood owns three top-six results in his last five Scottish Open starts and has logged three top-five finishes in his past six overall events, underscoring perfect course fit. However, Fitzmaurice emphasized the Englishman’s win equity is questionable after a painful collapse at the Travelers Championship, where he blew a 72-hole lead. The safety of placement bets captures Fleetwood’s consistent floor without asking him to capture his elusive first PGA Tour victory.

Pat Perry advised fading Tommy Fleetwood in outright markets at the Genesis Scottish Open and similar events, arguing the Englishman simply has not shown the "dog" needed to close on Sundays. Despite elite ball-striking talent that should translate at places like the bomber-friendly Renaissance Club or past Mexico setups, Fleetwood still owns zero PGA Tour victories. Perry contrasted Fleetwood’s inability to finish with Brian Campbell’s knack for converting chances, saying Fleetwood "just doesn’t have it when it comes to winning a golf tournament." Until Fleetwood proves he can seal the deal, Perry recommended using him only for placement bets or DFS line-ups rather than tying up outright tickets.

Smylie Kaufman said Tommy Fleetwood sets up perfectly to contend, and possibly break through for his long-awaited PGA-Tour-sanctioned win, at the Scottish Open. Kaufman highlighted four top-10 finishes for Fleetwood at Renaissance Club, noting that the Englishman is as comfortable as anyone on firm, coastal setups and will enjoy massive home-crowd support. The course offers plenty of wedges and rewards precise driving—areas where Fleetwood has excelled all season while compiling multiple top-10s worldwide. Kaufman conceded Fleetwood has been hard to bet outright but called this "a really, really good week" for a top-finish ticket or win sprinkle because of the track record, current form, and familiarity with links-style conditions.

Wes Reynolds punched a 22-1 outright on Tommy Fleetwood because the Englishman checks every Scottish-Open box despite mediocre raw distance. Fleetwood has finished runner-up, 4th, and 6th the last three years at Renaissance and owns a second-place finish at Royal Portrush, next week’s Open venue. Reynolds noted Fleetwood’s proven comfort on firm fescue layouts and the psychological edge of playing outside the U.S., where most of his near-misses occur. With calm weather turning the event into a mini birdie-fest, Reynolds expects Fleetwood’s elite long-iron play and seasoned links shot-making to keep him in the hunt and finally cash a trophy across the pond.

Farnsworth called Tommy Fleetwood his preferred starting point for DFS rosters. Fleetwood historically excels on links–style tracks and has repeatedly contended in Scotland and Ireland. While he is coming off another gut-punch runner-up at the Travelers, Farnsworth trusts the combination of elite ball-striking, comfort in windy coastal conditions, and refreshed confidence on European soil. With projected calm weather neutralising around-the-green play, Fleetwood’s tee-to-green consistency makes him an ideal anchor in all formats.

Giuffra doubled down on Fleetwood with a Top 10 ticket at +240. Fleetwood has already logged two Top-10 finishes at this tournament and is playing his best golf of the season. After a short break following the Travelers near-miss, Giuffra anticipates the Englishman will again contend on a course that accentuates his strengths.

Brian Giuffra also fired on Tommy Fleetwood at +2200. He filtered the field by strokes-gained approach and putting—both Fleetwood strengths and both positive during his near-miss at the Travelers. Coupled with two previous Top-10s at this event and the DP-style setup, Giuffra thinks the stars finally align for Fleetwood’s first PGA Tour-sanctioned victory.

Cody Williams went back to the well with Tommy Fleetwood at +2200. Fleetwood owns a runner-up and two additional Top-5s at Renaissance Club and is gaining 1.03 strokes per round with his ball-striking over the last 12 rounds. Williams highlighted Fleetwood’s stellar tee-to-green numbers in moderate wind and a dialed-in short game, believing redemption is coming after June’s Travelers heartbreak.

Cody Williams said Tommy Fleetwood is his favorite outright bet at +2200 on DraftKings because the Englishman profiles perfectly for the Renaissance Club’s hybrid-links test. Williams noted Fleetwood has gained 1.03 strokes per round over his last 12 despite a rare MC at the U.S. Open, owns three finishes of T16 or better in his last four worldwide starts (runner-up at Travelers, T4 Charles Schwab), ranks 17th in strokes-gained tee-to-green in 10-17 mph winds over the past year, and is a plus scorer on par-4s. Course history is elite: top-6 at this event in 2023 and 2022 and runner-up in 2020, giving him top-3 total strokes gained at the Renaissance Club among all entrants. Williams also highlighted Fleetwood’s strong short-game form and multiple European Tour wins as further evidence he can finally lift a trophy on U.S. soil-caliber fields, making him a buy at 22-1.

Byron Lindeque argued that Tommy Fleetwood makes a cleaner cash-game starting point than Collin Morikawa this week. Fleetwood has rattled off rock-solid finishes all season and carries zero equipment changes, caddie swaps, or recent missed cuts—"just clean-cut, baby." Byron acknowledged the emotional let-down of Fleetwood’s heartbreaking near-miss three weeks ago but trusts the Englishman’s mental fortitude after multiple bounce-backs in his career. At $9,900, Fleetwood offers elite ball-striking stability and a no-nonsense short game, giving him what Byron calls "the stereotypical high-floor profile you want in double-ups." If listeners do not fully trust Morikawa’s new Billy Foster experiment, Fleetwood is the DFS safety valve in the upper-9K range.

Ryan Baroff said he locked in Tommy Fleetwood outright at 22-1 because the Englishman profiles as the clear No. 3 in the field behind Scheffler and McIlroy yet is priced like a second-tier option. Baroff noted Fleetwood’s strong course record – including a playoff loss to Aaron Rai before the event became co-sanctioned – and the fact that Fleetwood has repeatedly put himself in contention this season without showing any lingering ‘scar-tissue’ from near-misses. Fleetwood checks the boxes Baroff values most this week: elite long-iron play, a hot putter, and extensive experience on what Baroff calls an “Americanized links” that rewards driver-putter combos more than true links specialists. With familiar conditions, consistent recent form, and an attractive number, Baroff believes Fleetwood is a must-bet outright.

Polzin highlighted a betting edge on Tommy Fleetwood’s top-5 market. DraftKings and FanDuel both list Fleetwood at 5-to-1 (implied 17.4%), yet the 9to5 projection model gives him a 28% chance to grab a top-5 based on a 30% historical conversion rate in similar fields and conditions. Fleetwood ranks first in strokes-gained approach over his last 24 rounds and sits top-10 in seaside specialist scoring, making the disparity too large to ignore. Polzin recommended a measured wager, noting the prop offers far more value than Fleetwood’s outright number this week.

Rick Gehman warned that Tommy Fleetwood will be one of the slate’s highest-owned golfers at $9,900, and he understands why. Fleetwood gained 10.5 strokes tee-to-green at the Travelers while losing nothing with the putter—exactly the pristine stat profile DFS players crave. He has never missed a cut at the Renaissance Club (or the Scottish Open at any venue since 2012) and owns three top-six finishes in five starts since the tournament moved to this course. Gehman added that European-player narratives will artificially boost Fleetwood’s ownership further, but emphasized that the numbers completely justify eating the chalk in cash games or small-field GPPs.

Pat Mayo said he is adding Tommy Fleetwood to both his outright betting card and core DFS pool. Mayo noted that Fleetwood rolls into Renaissance off "great form" and a fresh emotional sting—losing last week in a playoff—creating a perfect narrative-plus-stats buy window. Course-fit wise, Fleetwood owns a T4, T6 and T31 in three co-sanctioned starts here and has historically handled slow fescue greens and Scottish wind better than most. Mayo reiterated that Renaissance rewards either (a) bomb-and-wedge attackers or (b) ultra-accurate iron snipers; Fleetwood checks the second box with top-10 season-long SG:APP numbers and one of the tour’s lowest three-putt rates. Because missing the fairway is rarely penal unless a bunker is found, Mayo expects Fleetwood’s trademark controlled ball-flight to keep him out of those hazards while the added distance he’s flashed over the past 18 months gives him more short-iron looks. Mayo believes the absence of U.S.-based playoff scar tissue—this event is in Europe—could finally free Fleetwood mentally to claim his first PGA-sanctioned victory. His plan: bet Fleetwood at anything 35-1 or better, sprinkle a top-10, and lock him into cash DFS builds.

Bo McBrayer advised staying away from Tommy Fleetwood in outright-winner bets until the Englishman shows he can close on Sunday. McBrayer pointed out that Fleetwood now owns 42 PGA-Tour top-10s without a victory and gave away a three-shot Sunday lead at the Travelers by shooting the only over-par round among the final four groups. On that back-nine collapse Fleetwood lost strokes off the tee, had an "atrocious" approach game, three-putted multiple times, and played ultra-conservatively while Keegan Bradley attacked. McBrayer concluded the pattern shows a persistent mental block, making Fleetwood a fine finishing-position play but a poor outright ticket until further notice.

Matt Gannon advised staying completely off Tommy Fleetwood in any outright or DFS exposure at TPC River Highlands. Gannon dug up a troubling data point: for the first time since March 2023 Fleetwood is LOSING strokes to the field in BOTH driving distance and fairway accuracy, a red flag on a track that historically rewards keeping the ball in play while still going low. Fleetwood’s profile is built for grind-it-out -12 events, yet Travelers regularly pushes to –22; Gannon does not trust the Englishman to keep pace with the birdie barrage. Given the lost driver form and the need to reach 20-plus under, Gannon is fading Fleetwood in outrights, head-to-heads and DFS cores.

Matt Gannon targeted Tommy Fleetwood in the “without Scheffler-Rory-Bryson” market around 20-1, saying a classic back-door T2 is squarely in Fleetwood’s wheelhouse. Gannon highlighted Fleetwood’s multiple paths: he can survive Oakmont by stringing fairways together or leaning on his world-class scrambling when he inevitably misses them. Hard scoring conditions historically elevate Fleetwood, who owns numerous top finishes on brutal setups. Gannon thinks the Englishman will quietly grind into contention over the weekend once the course starts wrecking scorecards.

Andy Molitor recommended Tommy Fleetwood as the ideal secondary-tier safety valve. Fleetwood’s driving accuracy and crisp irons keep him in position, evidenced by a top-10 Greens-in-Regulation rate on hard courses. Over the last five years of majors he owns four top-5s against only three missed cuts, so Molitor views him as a ‘high floor’ play who rarely torpedoes lineups. Recent form backs it up: T-4 at Colonial and T-16 at Memorial. With pools often rewarding steady finishers rather than outright winners, Molitor thinks Fleetwood’s consistency makes him a leverage pick when the field chases flashier, volatile names.

Eric Polzin called Tommy Fleetwood "one of the easier clicks" on the slate. Fleetwood ranks 11th in Polzin’s custom stat-fit model and 13th in recent-form scoring, while owning elite comp-course history: finishes of 5th and 16th in the last two U.S. Opens. His long-iron prowess (3rd in SG from 175-225 yards) lines up with Oakmont’s parade of 500-plus-yard par-4s. Recent results back it up—T4 at the Charles Schwab and T16 at the Memorial—with no missed cuts since March. Priced in the mid-$8K range, Fleetwood frees salary for a second stud and projects for 18% ownership, a number Polzin is willing to double in single-entry builds.

Johnny Wunder advocated a wager on Tommy Fleetwood at +3,250. Wunder conceded Fleetwood’s iron play has been sub-par lately, yet argued every other facet of his game is major-ready. He believes even a modest uptick with the approaches could unlock Fleetwood’s long-awaited major title, making the mid-tier odds enticing for bettors banking on swift iron regression.

Rick Gehman highlighted Tommy Fleetwood’s bogey-avoidance skill set—no missed cuts since the 2023 Open and elite ability to “par a golf course to death.” Fleetwood’s 2025 season is spotless, yet his $8,800 tag means a mere T11 would be break-even in DFS scoring. He missed the cut at Winged Foot but has been inside the top 20 in three straight majors since. Gehman is lukewarm: happy with Fleetwood as a high-floor cash play, but wary of ownership because the price is his lowest since last year’s U.S. Open (T16, 51.5 DK points).

Jason Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a prototypical U.S. Open ‘top-10 floor’ play. Fleetwood’s fairway-first driving and deft short game limit big numbers, letting him grind to something like +3 over 72 holes—good enough for a back-door T8 on a course where par is a premium. Sobel pointed to available +450 Top-10 and 2-to-1 Top-20 odds as undervalued, arguing Fleetwood rarely contends but almost always cashes finishing-position tickets at tough venues (T5 2023 U.S. Open, T10 2022 PGA). He views Fleetwood as a safe cash-game anchor on DFS sites where the Englishman sits in the mid $8K range.

Len Hochberg recommended betting Tommy Fleetwood outright at 33-1. Fleetwood has never won on the PGA Tour, but he routinely pops in majors and has multiple top-five finishes in golf’s biggest events. Hochberg emphasized Fleetwood’s balanced skill set—solid driving, dependable irons, and a steady short game—with no glaring weakness, the exact profile required to survive Oakmont’s brutal setup. Compared with the unplayable 3-1 and 4-1 prices on Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, Fleetwood offers a realistic path to contention while still providing meaningful return on investment if he happens to claim his first career victory on one of golf’s grandest stages.

Pat Mayo argued that Oakmont’s ramped-up difficulty finally tilts the scales toward Tommy Fleetwood grabbing that elusive first victory on American soil. Mayo and Keith Stewart compared Fleetwood’s resume—close calls at Heritage, Colonial and Shinnecock—to what this U.S. Open will demand: laser-straight driving, elite mid-iron spin control, and a proven knack for holding firm Poa greens. Fleetwood ranks top-15 in fairways gained on hard courses, is seventh in strokes gained on 450-500-yard par-4s, and routinely gains with the putter on fast surfaces. Mayo expects the Englishman’s conservative game plan—laying back with 3-wood, flighting low-spin irons, and cashing those six-to-twelve-foot par putts—to shine once scores drift toward even par. He recommended sprinkling Fleetwood in each-way outrights at 55-1 and locking him into DFS single-entry builds as a high-floor, moderate-ceiling anchor.

Fienberg recommended taking Tommy Fleetwood at 33-to-1 in the "without Scottie Scheffler" market for the U.S. Open. He nicknamed Fleetwood "T2 Tommy" and "Silver Tommy," highlighting the Englishman’s long history of runner-up finishes in major championships and elite events, traits that fit the objective of finishing highest among everyone not named Scheffler. With Scheffler installed near +250, Fienberg thinks books are still sleeping on Fleetwood’s ability to hang around leaderboards on demanding setups, making 33-to-1 a mis-price in a market where finishing second effectively cashes the ticket.

Matt Brown said bettors should stop wasting money backing Tommy Fleetwood to win tournaments and instead stick to top-10 and top-20 bets. Brown noted Fleetwood has piled up high finishes—including another T4 at Colonial last week—but still has zero PGA TOUR wins. Because he is so consistent, his outright prices are never long, meaning even a rare victory would only claw back years of outright losses. Brown argued placement markets or head-to-head matchups are the only profitable ways to attack Fleetwood, adding that the Englishman has repeatedly failed to convert when leaders come back to him on Sundays.

Gannon warned bettors against taking Tommy Fleetwood at 28-1. While Fleetwood keeps posting effortless T8s and owns a reliable around-the-green game suited to tough tracks, the host said last week’s Wells Fargo encore proved once again that Fleetwood lacks the closing chops. After chipping in at the turn to sit two back, Tommy promptly bogeyed the par-5 11th and never threatened, even against 80-1 longshots. Gannon quipped that passing on sub-30 Fleetwood tickets "has been a pretty good decision in our lifetimes" and will do so again.

Tommy Fleetwood enters off a T4 last week and, per Farnsworth, has no glaring weakness—accurate driver, solid irons, dependable short game. In a setup demanding complete tee-to-green proficiency, Fleetwood’s balanced skill set positions him as a staple in both cash and GPP builds.