Wes Reynolds fired another bullet at 14-1 on Tommy Fleetwood to win the Tour Championship. Reynolds acknowledged the emotional scars of past Fleetwood tickets but thinks the form is too good to ignore: Fleetwood was one of only three players in last week’s BMW field who gained strokes in every category (off-the-tee, approach, around-the-green, and putting), joining Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. Southwind, where that event was played, has long been a strong corollary course to East Lake, and Reynolds noted Fleetwood was the best player on the course for most of the week before fading. With just 30 players in the field and fairway-first rough similar to what he just conquered, Reynolds believes the Englishman’s balanced game and elite par-4 scoring give him real win equity despite his limited East Lake history.

Brandon Gdula said Tommy Fleetwood now profiles as a legitimate winner at East Lake. His model has Fleetwood third in strokes-gained tee-to-green and fourth in overall ceiling across the last 50 rounds, a huge shift from the "low-ceiling" tag that has dogged him for years. Gdula compared those metrics to Patrick Cantlay, who ranks just 27th in ceiling yet sits only a few points longer in the betting market. With Fleetwood available around 14-to-1, Gdula put the odds at “about 45 percent” that he’ll lock in an outright before Thursday and noted the bet mostly hinges on Scottie Scheffler producing merely an average putting week. The same upside makes Fleetwood a core DFS play in a 30-man field where winning equity matters most.

Jim Sannes said he is willing to break his long-standing "no Tommy Fleetwood outright" rule because the Englishman’s metrics have fundamentally shifted. After switching putters, Fleetwood is gaining nearly a stroke per round with the flat stick (+0.92), eighth in this 30-man field, while still ranking fourth in ball-striking over the last 50 rounds. Sannes’ model now gives Fleetwood the fourth-highest overall ceiling and the third-highest tee-to-green ceiling at East Lake, with a floor that also ranks third. That combination of safety and upside makes the 14-to-1 outright number attractive; Sannes believes Fleetwood can win if Scheffler regresses to field-average on the greens and Fleetwood finds the upper end of his newly steady putting.

Breaking from his usual stance, Bo McBrayer is backing Tommy Fleetwood outright at 14-to-1. He believes East Lake accentuates Fleetwood’s reliable tee-to-green game and minimizes the need for raw distance, calling the Englishman "as good of a fit for this golf course as Scottie Scheffler." In a 30-player event, McBrayer considers 14-1 generous for a golfer whose all-around skill set should translate over four rounds.

Bo McBrayer finally pulled the trigger on an outright Tommy Fleetwood ticket, grabbing +1400 in the 30-man field. He loves the course fit: East Lake is a par-70 with brutal par-4s, and Fleetwood ranks 1st in this field in Strokes Gained: Par 4, 11th in approach, and 6th in putting on Bermuda. Fleetwood also sits top-five in bogey avoidance and has three top-five finishes in his last five starts, including each of the last two weeks. McBrayer noted that accuracy off the tee and a grinding style are rewarded at East Lake and sees Fleetwood’s combination of precise iron play and unexpectedly hot Bermuda putting as the perfect recipe for a long-awaited first PGA Tour win.

Ben Everill endorsed betting Tommy Fleetwood outright at 16-1, arguing the Englishman’s winless narrative actually sets up perfectly this year. With the Tour scrapping staggered starting strokes, every player begins at level par, giving Fleetwood only 29 opponents to beat instead of chasing a ten-shot head start. Everill noted Fleetwood is “hitting it amazingly,” carries solid past results at East Lake, and benefits from a setup where fairway finders can attack newly renovated greens if they avoid the gnarly Bermuda rough. For risk-averse bettors he suggested using ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ markets, but still sees a full-field outright as a live ticket in what would be a storybook FedEx Cup finish.

Farnsworth filled out his outright card with Tommy Fleetwood at +1400, noting bettors worried about Scottie Scheffler can shift to the “winner without Scheffler” market where Fleetwood is +900. Fleetwood ranks second in this field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, checks every box statistically—plus driver, crisp irons, dependable short game—and owns a strong track record at Eastlake. Farnsworth downplayed Fleetwood’s recent Sunday let-downs at the Travelers and St. Jude, arguing that repeated contention usually leads to a win. Given Eastlake’s predictive course history and Fleetwood’s across-the-board strength, Farnsworth views him as the most complete challenger to Scheffler.

John Schwarb wagered on Tommy Fleetwood +1600 to grab the first-round lead. Fleetwood opened with 65 en route to a T4 at the BMW, bettered only by Bob MacIntyre’s 62. Schwarb noted Fleetwood is still searching for PGA Tour win No. 1 but keeps popping early, making him live to blitz East Lake on Thursday even if he fades later.

Brady Kannon backed Tommy Fleetwood at 14-1 to win the 2025 Tour Championship, noting the Englishman just logged back-to-back postseason top-5s and now owns six top-5 finishes on the season. Kannon’s model for East Lake emphasized Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Putting on Bermudagrass, Par-4 scoring, Good Drives Gained, proximity from 200+ yards, scrambling, and success on 450-500-yard par-4s. Fleetwood grades out top-5 in virtually every one of those categories, ranking fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds. Correlated-course form is strong as well: top-3 finishes at TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and Royal Troon within the past two seasons. Kannon believes the accuracy-over-distance setup at the nearly 7,500-yard par-70 favors Fleetwood’s elite ball-striking and that East Lake provides a perfect stage for a long-overdue first PGA Tour victory, making him a live outright bet at double-digit odds.

Shane Bacon said he is fading Tommy Fleetwood at East Lake, placing him on his "can't-win" list for the Tour Championship. Bacon cited obvious fatigue after Fleetwood's busy playoff run, adding that the Englishman looked "a bit exhausted" as the weeks stacked up. He pointed to last Thursday’s round where ball-striking was fine but Fleetwood "was missing those little four-footers like he was in the middle of the season," calling the short-putt yips a red flag on Bermuda greens that brutally punish mistakes. With only 30 players in the field, Bacon expects every missed bunny to be magnified and believes Fleetwood will struggle to keep pace, making him a fade in outright markets and a risky DFS spend.

Kenny Kim said to fire on Tommy Fleetwood at 10-to-1 in the without-Scheffler outright market for the 30-man Tour Championship. Kim pointed out that Fleetwood arrives with two straight FedEx Cup top-10s and posts elite recent numbers—5th in strokes-gained approach, 4th tee-to-green and 2nd in fairways gained over his last 12 rounds. East Lake rewards accuracy and sustained momentum, which Kim compared to the playoff runs of Lucas Glover and Billy Horschel. In a field this small he believes Fleetwood finally converts a win and the double-digit price is too good to pass up.

Kenny Kim took Tommy Fleetwood 10-to-1 in the without-Scheffler market, arguing that the 30-man no-cut format finally lines up for the Englishman’s first PGA Tour win. Fleetwood ranks near the top of the field in fairways-gained and has posted consecutive FedEx Cup Top-10 finishes, showing the current form Kim looks for in East Lake champions. With every tee ball requiring driver but demanding accuracy, Fleetwood’s blend of controlled length and dialed-in irons places him firmly on the short list. Kim is skipping each-ways and swinging for the outright, saying “if Tommy’s going to win one, this is it.”

Kenny Kim said he has already bet Tommy Fleetwood to win the 30-man Tour Championship and collect the FedEx Cup. Kim framed it as a ‘chaos’ outcome the current staggered-start format still permits, noting that one hot week can vault a chaser past the points leaders. His conviction is rooted in Fleetwood’s sustained form: since the start of May Fleetwood ranks second only to Scottie Scheffler in strokes gained across all categories. Kim believes that level of tee-to-green consistency, paired with East Lake’s demanding layout that rewards ball-striking, makes Fleetwood undervalued in outright markets despite his lack of a PGA-Tour victory.

Cunningham noted that, despite still searching for his first PGA-Tour victory, Tommy Fleetwood has been "among the best players in recent weeks," which explains why oddsmakers slotted him third on the Tour Championship board at +1300. Fleetwood’s consistent top-tier finishes throughout the playoffs have shortened his number ahead of East Lake, signaling that bookmakers and bettors alike are respecting his current form even without a win on U.S. soil. For outright or each-way wagers, Cunningham implied that Fleetwood’s combination of recent ball-striking and a clean slate with no starting-stroke deficit gives him legitimate win equity at a mid-range price.

Pat Mayo backed Tommy Fleetwood for DFS and placement bets, noting Fleetwood has gained strokes tee-to-green in all but two starts over the last 12 months—the only outliers being the U.S. Open and last year’s Tour Championship. Eastlake historically suits him (T6, T11, T16, 20th) and his putter has been "excellent" lately. Mayo’s model, weighted for driver-heavy setups, again ranked Fleetwood inside the top ten, making him a core play despite minimal outright win equity.

Pat Mayo said he plans to “dump on” Tommy Fleetwood this week, arguing that the Englishman’s fairway-finding driver, top-5 ranking on 450-plus-yard par-4 scoring, and strong showing at Southwind fit Eastlake perfectly. Mayo added a narrative angle—Fleetwood’s first PGA Tour win coming in a 30-man event no one is watching—which could keep his betting odds longer than those of marquee names. Mayo recommended taking Fleetwood outright and in DFS builds, expecting viewers to label it an “illegitimate” victory while still cashing tickets.

Iain MacMillan advised bettors to avoid an outright ticket on Tommy Fleetwood and instead target the top-5 or top-10 markets. Fleetwood went one over par across the closing three holes at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, missing a playoff by a stroke and adding yet another late-round stumble to his resume. Despite the tendency to falter on Sundays, sportsbooks still list him among the favorites this week. MacMillan argued that his high baseline of ball-striking should keep him in the hunt, but the track record of closing failures makes shorter placement bets the smarter play.

Andy Lack warned that Caves Valley is “not as good of a spot for Tommy Fleetwood,” advising bettors to grab their exposure at St. Jude instead. The bomber-friendly setup diminishes Fleetwood’s precision advantage, leading Lack to a fade in early outright and DFS considerations.

Shane Bacon advised bettors to avoid Tommy Fleetwood in outright or top-finish markets, declaring "he’s not winning this week, maybe ever." Bacon said he has backed Fleetwood repeatedly in 2025 only to watch the Englishman stall on Sundays, and he’s concluded the consistent inability to close makes Fleetwood a poor value until he proves he can finish the job.

Bo cannot justify Fleetwood’s short outright price. He pointed to Fleetwood looking "so nervous" on the 17th in Memphis and argued the Englishman likely needs a runaway to win—unlikely in a field this strong. Top-5/Top-10 bets are fine, but an outright wager is, in Bo’s words, "lighting your money on fire."

After watching Tommy Fleetwood bogey 17 and bunker his drive on 18 at the St. Jude, Bo McBrayer said Fleetwood’s winless streak is now "in his head." Despite opening 63-64, Fleetwood fell to a T-3 by missing fairways on birdie holes and playing the weekend around even par while the leaders went low. McBrayer advised fading Fleetwood in outright markets until he shows he can close on Sunday, limiting exposure to top-5 or top-10 props instead.

Brandon Gdula said he has parked Tommy Fleetwood in the outright-betting "no-fly zone" this week. Fleetwood’s price opened around 11-1—even though he still has not actually won on the PGA TOUR—so Gdula feels the market is forcing bettors to pay ceiling odds for floor outcomes. Because FanDuel bases DFS salaries on those same win odds, Fleetwood’s $11,100 tag is also inflated relative to alternatives in the same range. Gdula prefers Xander Schauffele, whose current distance edge better suits the setup, or a cheaper Ludvig Aberg whose ball-striking trend is pointing up. He is therefore fading Fleetwood tickets but will remain only lightly exposed in DFS line-ups until Tommy finally breaks through and the books lengthen the number.

Jim Sannes said he is still willing to roster Tommy Fleetwood at an $11.1k DFS salary but cannot stomach another outright ticket until Fleetwood proves he can close. Fleetwood ranks second in true strokes gained over the last three months (+2.24) and third over six months (+2.02), trailing only Scheffler and McIlroy, thanks to elite tee-to-green play (3rd) and a hot putter (9th) since switching flat sticks. Despite that form he has twice fallen short when holding late leads, most recently a T3 heartbreaker last week. Sannes worries the near-misses are “starting to feel different” mentally, preferring Fleetwood in a chase position rather than front-running. The statistical floor and consistent top-10s make him a solid GPP target, but without a demonstrated closing gear Sannes is passing on the outright number and focusing exposure on DFS.

Wiley flat-out said it would "shock" him if Tommy Fleetwood lifted the trophy Sunday, advising listeners to skip Fleetwood outright tickets and keep him out of single-entry cores. The Englishman’s ball-striking remains solid but Wiley noted Fleetwood hasn’t paired it with a positive putting week in months, unlike Cam Young who finally spiked on the greens. In a no-cut playoff where Wiley wants six top-10 finishes in every lineup, he doesn’t believe Fleetwood possesses the ceiling necessary for a tournament-winning score.

Pat Perry said bettors should stop backing Tommy Fleetwood in outright markets until he finally proves he can finish a tournament. Perry pointed out that Fleetwood now leads the PGA Tour in top-10 finishes without a win—a stat ESPN flashed on Sunday—and noted Graham DeLaet’s on-air comment that every near-miss only worsens the mental hurdle. Watching the first FedEx Cup playoff, Perry saw Fleetwood lose control off the tee early, tighten up on approach shots, and fail to birdie the soft par-5 16th despite a perfect fairway lie, all classic signs of a player feeling the pressure. Perry compared Fleetwood’s body language coming down the stretch to a golfer sweating a Friday cut, concluding you can still cash placement tickets (top-10/20) on Fleetwood’s consistent ball-striking but outright wagers are lighting money on fire until he shows he can handle Sunday leads.

Gehman is off Tommy Fleetwood at $10,400. He witnessed Fleetwood’s tense Sunday collapse in Memphis— shoulders rising, double-cross drive on 17, and a weak five-footer that sealed his fate. Statistically, Fleetwood’s two best putting weeks of the season came in his last three starts, suggesting looming negative regression. Gehman also argues Caves Valley’s wide landing areas and emphasis on raw distance neutralize the finesse advantages that usually boost Fleetwood. Combining likely putting give-back, poor course fit, and lingering pressure after the collapse, Gehman will avoid Fleetwood in DFS builds.

Kenny Kim advised bettors to pound the in-play market against Tommy Fleetwood any time he tees off Sunday with the outright lead. Kim argued Fleetwood’s repeated late collapses—two squandered chances in the past month and a decade of ‘almosts’—reveal a persistent mental block. Even when Fleetwood posted a respectable 69 last Sunday, it still was not enough to close. Kim summarized: "Put him in front and he melts." That track record makes Fleetwood a profitable target for live fades whenever he is atop the leaderboard after 54 holes.

Byron Lindeque said Tommy Fleetwood is his preferred DFS leverage in the 10-K salary tier for the BMW Championship. Lindeque expects Fleetwood’s ownership to crater because fantasy players have "absolutely zero faith" after Fleetwood coughed up two leads in the last month. That public narrative hides the fact that Fleetwood’s recent ball-striking numbers are "through the roof," repeatedly spiking in every stats model Byron has run this week. With most line-ups gravitating to the other 10-K names, Fleetwood offers tournament-winning leverage at a suppressed roster rate while still carrying top-five win equity on pure form.

MacMillan advised against betting Tommy Fleetwood outright despite his short odds, noting yet another late collapse in Memphis where the Englishman played the final three holes in +1 to miss a playoff by a stroke. Fleetwood continues to flash elite ball-striking, but MacMillan questioned his ability to close and recommended restricting action to top-5 or top-10 props where his consistency still offers value without needing him to win.

Cunningham noted that Tommy Fleetwood sits third on the odds board at +2000. Although Fleetwood is still searching for his first PGA Tour victory, he came just one stroke shy of a playoff at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. That latest near-miss, stacked on top of a season filled with close calls, leads Cunningham to frame Fleetwood as a live long-shot worth consideration at Caves Valley.

Nejad took Tommy Fleetwood at 18-1 in the DraftKings ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ market, arguing the price removes the tournament’s prohibitive favorite while still paying a true outright number on Fleetwood’s steady form.

Sia Nejad opened his FRL card with Tommy Fleetwood at 30-1. With only 69 players teeing it up at TPC Southwind the book has trimmed prices, so Nejad wants reliable ball-strikers at the very top. He reminded listeners that his last two appearances on the show produced a 110-1 FRL chop on Victor Perez, and he is sticking to the same short-field strategy here.

Pat Perry said Tommy Fleetwood is one of the first names he would click at the FedEx St. Jude, calling 25-1 a bargain. Perry stressed that Southwind’s tight corridors and water-guarded greens accentuate Fleetwood’s accuracy and short-game strengths. The Englishman finished 3rd here in 2023 and has continued to trend with a run of strong ball-striking numbers over the past two months. With Rory McIlroy skipping the event, Perry believes Fleetwood’s outright path is clearer and expects him to contend from Thursday morning.

Sobel labeled Tommy Fleetwood a "world-class ball-striker with an unequivocally high floor" and recommended a conservative top-10 at +175. Fleetwood owns a top-10 at Southwind within the last two years and rarely loses strokes tee-to-green, making him a dependable anchor play in a limited 69-man field.

Haslbauer plans to build his early card around Tommy Fleetwood if books hang anything north of 25-1. Fleetwood is top-3 in Haslbauer’s custom model (behind only Scheffler and Henley) thanks to elite recent form: he sits fifth in SG: T2G over his last 12 rounds, eighth in Fairways Gained, and inside the top-20 in Scrambling Gained and Proximity 150-175 yards— the approach window that accounts for nearly one-third of Southwind iron shots. He owns positive histories at both East Lake and Sawgrass, two of Haslbauer’s primary comp courses featuring the same zoysia/Bermuda mix and water-lined angles. The Englishman’s Bermuda putting spike weeks (gained strokes in five of his last six starts on the surface) give him the ceiling to cash an outright in a no-cut event where four rounds are guaranteed.

Glasscott recommended Tommy Fleetwood at +2500 for top-5 and outright tickets. Fleetwood’s precise tee-to-green game fits TPC Southwind, which ranks among the TOUR’s toughest fairways to hit. He owns solo 3rd (2023) and solo 4th (2019) results here and recently posted T34 in Scotland and T16 at Royal Portrush after nearly winning the Travelers. With form intact and a strategic layout that accentuates his ball striking, Glasscott expects another serious run at a long-overdue PGA TOUR victory.

Wes Reynolds said Tommy Fleetwood is worth an outright ticket at 25-1 because TPC Southwind accentuates every strength in Fleetwood’s profile. Fleetwood ranks eighth on the PGA Tour this season in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.628 per round), sits 14th in Good Drive Percentage (83.26%) and top-10 in Scrambling (62.56%). He also gains 6.33 feet per round on approach shots from 150-175 yards, a key bucket for two-thirds of iron shots here. Course history is another arrow in the quiver: a third-place finish in 2023 and a fourth in 2019 prove he can navigate Southwind’s dog-legs and ever-present water. With Cameron Young breaking through last week, Reynolds believes Fleetwood—already a seven-time winner on the DP World Tour—“is owed one” on U.S. soil and is positioned to convert in a no-cut playoff setting.

Pat Perry called Tommy Fleetwood an "easy top-20 bet" at Royal Portrush, noting that Fleetwood once again parked himself exactly where bettors expected – T-16. Perry stressed that Fleetwood’s ability to hover in the teens every time the Open rolls around makes the top-20 market the simplest way to attack him instead of chasing a win ticket that rarely cashes. Fleetwood’s predictable floor in links-style majors keeps him on Perry’s betting card whenever sports books offer plus money on a top-20 finish.

Kyle Murray backed Tommy Fleetwood at +2800 outright and +250 Top-10, noting that a cold putter masked elite ball-striking during Fleetwood’s T34 at the Scottish Open. Fleetwood ranks top-10 in this field for SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green, Ball-Striking and Total SG over the last six months, and he finished runner-up the last time Royal Portrush hosted the Open in 2019. Murray emphasized Fleetwood’s long-term success on links/coastal tracks, arguing his current form plus course history make him a strong breakthrough candidate at Portrush.

Andrade backed Tommy Fleetwood as a core play, noting he ranks 9th in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green, and keeps it straight off the tee—critical on Portrush’s narrow corridors and internal OB. Fleetwood has four top-7s in his last eight worldwide starts and four top-12s in his past six Opens. Andrade highlighted the Englishman’s seven DP World Tour wins and historically high DFS floor as reasons to lock him in at $11,500.

Hochberg recommended Tommy Fleetwood at $9,500 and +2800, citing his third-ranked SG:Tee-to-Green, 8th in SG:Approach, 17th Around-the-Green and 33rd Putting on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood was runner-up to Lowry at Portrush in 2019 and followed with 4th (2022) and 10th (2023) in subsequent Opens. He has five top-10s in 15 starts this season and has made the cut in six of his last seven Opens, reinforcing both floor and ceiling for DFS cash and GPP builds.

Fitzmaurice is passing on Tommy Fleetwood at +2800 even though the Englishman finished runner-up here in 2019. He argued that books have shaved Fleetwood’s price because he ‘often contends in big events,’ yet noted Fleetwood’s chronic inability to seal the deal, citing multiple close calls without a major victory. With better closers available deeper down the board, Pat says the number is simply too short.

Haslbauer placed Tommy Fleetwood in his Tier-2 player pool and said he will be on the betting card once the weather draw is known. Fleetwood gained 8.1 strokes tee-to-green at Portrush in 2019 and played in Sunday’s final pairing with winner Shane Lowry. The Englishman ranks 3rd in Haslbauer’s custom model, sitting top-15 in SG: APP, Driving Accuracy and Scrambling on slow fescue greens, while also appearing in the top-10 list for comp-course history (Royal Liverpool, Pebble, Sawgrass). With projected DraftKings pricing in the low $9K range and outright odds around 30-1, Haslbauer views Fleetwood as a high-floor core play in DFS and a live outright because “accurate plodders can follow the Brian Harman blueprint” at Royal Portrush.

At +2800, Tommy Fleetwood was highlighted by Glasscott as the best non-major winner inside 30-1. The Englishman finished runner-up (six shots behind Shane Lowry) when Portrush last staged the Open in 2019 and has logged three top-10s in his past five editions of the championship. Fleetwood’s comfort on linksy, wind-swept layouts combined with a rock-solid tee-to-green profile makes him a logical breakthrough candidate. Glasscott reminded bettors that Brian Harman’s 2023 triumph marked the fifth straight first-time major winner at this event, so history supports rolling the dice on Fleetwood finally converting.

Patrick McDonald slotted Tommy Fleetwood fifth in his Open Championship power rankings and said he is betting the Englishman this week. McDonald pointed to Fleetwood’s elite record in this major – multiple top-10s and a strong showing at Royal Portrush in 2019 – plus his recent contention at the Travelers. With years of links experience and form trending in the right direction, McDonald believes Fleetwood’s ceiling is a victory and views him as both a viable outright wager and DFS play.

Shane Bacon’s outright pick is Tommy Fleetwood. Bacon thinks the Englishman thrives when chasing, envisioning Fleetwood starting Sunday four shots back and firing a Shinnecock-style 65 to steal the title—much like his 2019 Open run. Expected wet, relatively calm conditions should eliminate fiery bounces and spotlight Fleetwood’s flush ball-striking. With many betting markets still pricing him behind the superstar tier, Bacon believes Fleetwood offers the best blend of form, course fit, and potential closing ability to win his first major.

Rick Gehman advised coming in underweight on Tommy Fleetwood, arguing that Fleetwood’s expansive shot library actually hurts him when the heat is on. The radar chart shows Fleetwood hitting just about every window, but Gehman worries that having "so many shots" leads to double-crosses and miscues when the Englishman is trying to break through for a career-defining win. Gehman added that the radar profile isn’t nearly as exciting as elite peers and expects Fleetwood to draw meaningful ownership thanks to his Open reputation. Gehman prefers to leverage that popularity by fading Fleetwood in DFS builds and reallocating salary to higher-ceiling options like Xander or Aberg.

Shane Bacon slotted Tommy Fleetwood fifth in his personal power rankings and said the Englishman is ‘very, very high on my list this week.’ Bacon’s confidence comes from Fleetwood’s sterling Open resume—runner-up in 2019 at Portrush, another serious run at St. Andrews in 2022, and a string of other top-20 finishes that prove he thrives in links conditions. Bacon noted Fleetwood’s near-miss at the Travelers showed the form is still there, while his ability to flight irons in coastal wind is tailor-made for Portrush’s exposed back nine. Because of that track record and current ball-striking, Bacon views Fleetwood as a live outright and a must-consider Top-10/Top-20 ticket rather than a boom-or-bust long shot.

Eric Polzin said Tommy Fleetwood is both a DFS core piece and a bettable outright this week. Fleetwood appears on Polzin’s 9-to-5 sportsbook tool as a “good outright” and ranks second in his stat model that weights bogey-avoidance, total driving, seaside scoring, par-5 scoring and strokes-gained approach. Fleetwood’s Open résumé (runner-up at Royal Portrush in 2019 and multiple top-10s in the last five editions) shows he handles links golf, and the current forecast—more rain than wind—favors his steady tee-to-green game. With DraftKings pricing softer than past majors, Polzin is comfortable locking Fleetwood into cash builds and taking outright or each-way tickets down to 20-1.

Matt Gannon advised fading Tommy Fleetwood at his current 25-1 outright number. While Fleetwood checks every statistical box—accurate driver, elite long-iron play, proven links résumé—Gannon stressed that betting him at this price "in perpetuity" leads to perpetual frustration. Fleetwood has piled up near-misses (runner-up here in 2019 and the recent collapse at TPC River Highlands) but owns zero PGA-Tour wins since 2018, indicating low win equity relative to the odds. Gannon added that Portrush’s penal rough and hidden hazards offer plenty of new ways for Fleetwood to kick away a lead. Until the market drifts well north of 30-1, Gannon is keeping the Englishman off his outright card and limiting exposure to DFS lineups only.

Myers slotted Tommy Fleetwood fifth at 25/1, emphasizing his runner-up finish the last time Portrush hosted (2019) and his reputation for showing up every tournament without imploding. He believes the ‘golf gods’ owe Fleetwood after a heartbreaking loss at the Travelers. The knock is that Fleetwood simply does not win—zero PGA TOUR victories—leaving bettors to decide if course history and steadiness outweigh career closing issues.