Reynolds grabbed Viktor Hovland at 30-1, citing a combination of course history and elite iron play. Hovland captured the FedEx Cup two years ago with the low 72-hole score, finished 4th in 2021, and 8th last year, so he clearly likes East Lake. Statistically he ranks second on the PGA TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Scottie Scheffler, and he was third in that same category at the BMW. Reynolds views East Lake as an approach-scoring venue and thinks Hovland’s lifetime form plus the generous price in a 30-man field make him one of the few with realistic win equity if Scheffler slips.

Brandon Gdula targeted Viktor Hovland at 30-to-1 to win the Tour Championship, arguing the course amplifies Hovland’s elite tee-to-green ceiling. Over the last 36 rounds Hovland trails only Scottie Scheffler in combined off-the-tee plus approach strokes gained (1.46 per round vs. Scheffler’s 2.57). DataGolf shows Hovland owns the best career strokes-gained numbers at East Lake among this field and has gained at least 1.81 strokes on approach in four of his past six starts, signaling spike-week potential. Gdula conceded the putter is volatile—hence the 30-1 price—but believes that ceiling makes Hovland the best mid-tier value on the board.

Brandon Gdula said Viktor Hovland is one of the few outright numbers that still looks juicy at East Lake. Hovland leads the field in raw 72-hole scoring over the past five Tour Championships (20 rounds), finishing inside the top-15 every single year. He comes in off a T7 at the BMW where he ranked 2nd in strokes-gained approach, and Gdula stressed that approach play and driving accuracy are the two most predictive stats on the redesigned layout. At 30/1 on FanDuel and a $9,900 DFS salary, Gdula believes betting markets and DFS players are underrating a golfer whose elite irons perfectly fit East Lake’s demands and whose course résumé is the best in the field with Xander Schauffele absent.

Although Hovland is 30th in the field in scrambling, Bo McBrayer still prefers betting him over Aberg thanks to elite ball-striking and East Lake comfort. Hovland posted the low gross score here two years ago, the 8th-best total last season, and 4th in 2021 (all without starting strokes). Stat model ranks: 10th in Good Drives Gained, 10th in approach, 3rd in proximity, and 3rd in Birdies or Better. That tee-to-green ceiling, combined with proven course history, convinced McBrayer that Hovland is worth an outright sprinkle or aggressive placement wager despite the short-game red flag.

Barnett called Viktor Hovland one of only two players with a real chance to chase down Scheffler and likes the 28-to-1 outright as well as the +130 top-10. His case: Hovland has already won at East Lake, and the iron play "has looked unbelievably good lately—kind of back to vintage Victor." Barnett thinks that combination of course history and resurgent approach play makes Hovland the best value on the board behind the favorite.

Derek Farnsworth said he is betting Viktor Hovland at +3000 on FanDuel and expects to use him in DFS builds. He pointed out that Eastlake is a 7,400-yard par-70 with 86% driver usage, so total driving matters more than usual. Hovland gained 7.5 strokes ball-striking and finished T7 last week, showing his swing is peaking again. He also won the 2023 Tour Championship, and course history is one of the few stats Farnsworth weighted higher (6%) because Eastlake has been predictive year over year. With the field starting at even par this season, Farnsworth believes Hovland’s elite tee-to-green profile gives him full win equity at a discounted number.

Brian Giuffra played Viktor Hovland at +2000 in the ‘winner without Scheffler’ market. Giuffra admitted Scheffler capping 2025 with a win feels ‘foregone,’ so he pivoted to a hedge that still pays if Scheffler dominates. Referencing Hovland’s elite East Lake history and current ball-striking surge, Giuffra thinks this derivative offers juicy odds on his preferred outright without needing to beat the world No. 1.

Cody Williams doubled down on Viktor Hovland as Top European at +750, reiterating Hovland’s second-best approach numbers over 24 rounds, improved driving accuracy, and four straight weeks gaining with the putter. With Rory shorter in the market and Jon Rahm absent, Williams sees Hovland as the clear value among Europeans.

Brian Giuffra’s so-called ‘longshot’ is Viktor Hovland at +3000. Hovland ranks fourth in cumulative strokes gained at East Lake among this week’s field, and he just gained more than two strokes per round on approach at the BMW. Giuffra added that Hovland has been both accurate off the tee and positive with the putter in four straight events, gaining over one stroke per round on the greens here last year. In a 30-player field, Giuffra sees Hovland’s price as simply too long.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland at +3000, arguing the Norwegian ‘turned a corner’ with last week’s T7 at the BMW. Over the last 24 rounds Hovland is second in the field in approach play at East Lake, and his driver finally cooperated at Olympia Fields. Williams highlighted four consecutive tournaments of positive strokes-gained putting and reminded bettors Hovland effectively ‘won’ this event in 2023 at –19 on the shadow leaderboard. With every part of the bag clicking, Williams believes East Lake sets up perfectly for another Hovland payoff.

Eric Polzin highlighted Viktor Hovland as an upside DFS tournament target after his model unexpectedly placed Hovland among the top three statistical fits for East Lake. Hovland grades out elite in birdie or better rate, overall ball-striking, 200-plus yard approach efficiency, strokes-gained approach, and par-5 scoring—the exact five categories Polzin weighted for the Tour Championship. He already owns multiple top-10 finishes at this course, and the long par-70 setup spotlights his long-iron advantage. With most rosters funneling to Scheffler, Rory, and Justin Thomas, Polzin expects Hovland’s ownership to lag, giving him slate-breaking leverage if the putter heats up.

Rick Gehman starred Viktor Hovland as a core play and outright winner candidate. Over the last 24 rounds Hovland is second only to Scheffler in ball-striking and is gaining two strokes per round in August (1.8 via ball-striking). He finished T7 at Caves Valley after picking up seven strokes on approach and gaining in every strokes-gained category, and he won at Eastlake in 2023, gaining 14 strokes on the field (10.7 tee-to-green). Gehman believes the tougher the track, the better Hovland performs and is ‘riding with Victor’ for DFS, matchups and outrights.

Kenny Kim backed Viktor Hovland at 20-to-1 in the without-Scheffler market. Hovland sits 2nd in strokes-gained approach and 10th in fairways gained over the last 12 rounds, excels on long par-4s, and has a history of success at East Lake. Kim believes the course accentuates Hovland’s ball-striking and minimizes his short-game liabilities, making 20-to-1 a clear buy number.

Bo is backing Viktor Hovland at 35-1, highlighting his "ball-striker extraordinaire" profile that thrives when scrambling isn’t required. Caves Valley’s generous fairways let Hovland unleash his elite tee-to-green game, and Bo believes the Norwegian can "go low with the best of them" in a projected −20 winning score environment.

Farnsworth said he can get behind Hovland in large-field tournaments only. Hovland’s approach play has ticked up, but season-long driving distance is merely field-average and recent results relied heavily on a hot short game. Because he expects Olympia Fields to reward tee-to-green dominance more than scrambling, Farnsworth views Hovland as boom-or-bust leverage rather than a cash-game staple.

Calling him the “absolute hammer,” Gannon locked Viktor Hovland in at $9,200. He compared Caves Valley’s northeast bent-grass, thick-rough profile to tracks where Hovland has thrived—Oakmont, Oak Hill, and past BMW Championships—and expects his long-and-straight driving plus scoring irons to shine. Last week’s pedestrian finish should lower ownership, giving DFS players bargain exposure to an elite course fit.

Byron Lindeque said Viktor Hovland is exactly the kind of volatility-driven pivot he wants in large-field DFS tournaments this week. Hovland followed a Thursday round Byron called “dog-shit” by ripping off a six-under front nine on Friday, proof that the ceiling is still intact if he can limit the single-hole blow-ups. After last week’s meltdown Byron expects the industry to bail, projecting Hovland to come in outside the top-15 ownership tier—possibly the lowest-owned golfer in the entire $9K salary range. Lindeque plans to “sprinkle him in” more heavily as ownership projections drop, arguing that even-par rounds turn his bad days into survivable ones while his good days carry legitimate win equity on a driver-heavy track.

Cintorino is buying the dip on Viktor Hovland at 35-1. Last week’s disappointment killed the buzz, but he thinks that creates a perfect buy-low. Caves Valley’s length and gnarly rough reward Hovland’s elite tee-to-green game, and the Norwegian has historically putted best on pure bent. Cintorino plans to attack both the outright at 35-1 and a "without Scheffler/McIlroy" market in the mid-20s, arguing Hovland can easily finish third if the two favorites separate. Hovland has already shown playoff upside, and the no-cut structure removes one of his few weaknesses—volatile short-game weeks that can miss cuts elsewhere.

Cameron DaSilva said Viktor Hovland is worth an outright wager at +3000. He pointed to Hovland’s strong record at TPC Southwind – 2nd in 2024, 13th in 2023, 20th in 2022 – and called him a top-tier ball-striker, a trait he believes the water-heavy par-70 demands. In a no-cut playoff setting where winning scores sit around −13 to −17, DaSilva expects Hovland’s precise tee-to-green game to keep him in contention all four rounds.

Cody Williams fired on Viktor Hovland at +3500. He noted Hovland was runner-up here last season, has gained 1.40 strokes per round on approach across his last 12 measured rounds, and ranks fourth in proximity from 150-200 yards over the last 24. Williams added that Hovland is a top-30 putter on fast Bermuda greens and is trending upward with the driver—ideal ingredients for TPC Southwind.

Cody Williams took Hovland at +3500, noting the Norwegian has improved each visit to Southwind and tied for second here in 2024. Over his last 12 rounds he is gaining 1.40 strokes on approach, sits fourth in proximity from 150-200 yards during the last 24 rounds, and has climbed into the top-30 putting splits on fast Bermuda. Williams believes that ball-striking profile matches the playoff venue perfectly and offers a ceiling outcome at a mid-tier price.

Sia Nejad called Viktor Hovland one of the best values on the board, saying he would have had "no issue" if DraftKings had priced him up where Tommy Fleetwood or Russell Henley sit in the low-10K tier. Nejad trusts Hovland’s elite tee-to-green profile and superior win equity over consistency plays in the same neighborhood, making Hovland a strong pivot with both ceiling and ownership leverage in large-field GPPs.

Nejad also played Hovland in the ‘without Scheffler, Fleetwood, Schauffele, Thomas’ pool at 28-1 after seeing the number drop from 30. The extra names removed give Hovland a cleaner path while only costing two points of price.

Sia Nejad added Viktor Hovland at 35-1 to his first-round leader portfolio, noting the condensed 69-man field means one hot Thursday can cash quickly. Hovland’s ability to fire low numbers fits the aggressive FRL approach Nejad has been riding all season.

Brandon Gdula said he’s “liking [Viktor Hovland] more for betting than for DFS.” At $10.5K, Hovland competes with Russell Henley and the strong $9K tier for roster spots, making him less attractive on a point-per-dollar basis. In the outright and placement markets, however, Hovland’s elite ball-striking ceiling and top-of-field win probability still grade out well in Gdula’s model, so he prefers investing bankroll rather than salary cap in the Norwegian this week.

Brandon Gdula said Viktor Hovland is worth an outright bet at 31-1 for the FedEx St. Jude Classic. Despite ranking 71st of 79 cut-makers around the green in his last win, Hovland still finished sixth in approach and second in putting, showing how hot irons and a cooperative flat stick can erase scrambling flaws. TPC Southwind rewards precision, and Hovland has placed 20th, 13th and 2nd in his last three trips. Gdula added that Hovland’s season-long putting is quietly average—46th percentile inside 15 feet and 17th percentile outside—so positive regression is likely. With scrambling de-emphasized this week, Gdula believes Hovland’s elite iron game gives him real win equity even versus Scottie Scheffler.

Gdula grabbed Viktor Hovland at 31-to-1 to win Southwind, noting the number is wide for the second-best iron player in the entire field over the last 50 rounds (1.16 strokes gained approach, trailing only Scheffler’s 1.60). Datagolf shows TPC Southwind grading out extremely similar to Copperhead—the venue where Hovland already picked off a title this season—because both diminish around-the-green play while rewarding precise irons to smaller putting surfaces. At Copperhead, Hovland ranked 6th in approach and 2nd in putting while finishing 71st around the green yet still won. He also owns a sparkling tournament history here (20th, 13th, 2nd the past three years) and has gained strokes putting each time. Gdula concluded that when the Norwegian’s irons cooperate he can stand toe-to-toe with Scheffler, making 31-1 a clear value.

Hovland has posted strong results at Southwind each of the past three years and sits near the top of Farnsworth’s driver-heavy and Zoysia splits, yet projected ownership is hovering below 17 %. Farnsworth likes him as a leverage play in large-field GPPs where Scheffler lineups dominate roster construction.

Pat Perry endorsed Viktor Hovland as a must-have near the top of betting cards. Hovland owns three consecutive top-20s at TPC Southwind and ranks 2nd in the field in SG:Ball-Striking over those appearances. Perry acknowledged the well-known scrambling weakness but stressed that Southwind’s closely-mown run-offs mitigate that liability compared to gnarly rough venues. With driving accuracy emphasized and Hovland gaining over a stroke off-the-tee per round in his last five starts, Perry projects another realistic win chance and likes him in both outright and one-and-done formats.

Ben Coley staked 2 points each-way on Viktor Hovland at 33/1, pointing to a near-perfect course fit and encouraging recent form. Hovland calls TPC Southwind “a genius golf course” and his results back that up: 59th on debut in 2020 when his short game was a liability, then 36th, 20th, 13th and runner-up last year, shooting 15-under for the final 54 holes. Coley highlighted that last year’s slow start came while Hovland’s game was struggling—he’d missed both summer-major cuts—whereas this time he rolls in off 3rd at the US Open, 11th in Scotland and an earlier win at the Valspar, a comp course featuring tight fairways, penal rough and abundant water. Stat-wise, Hovland has been gaining heavily with his irons for months and drove the ball “beautifully” here in 2024. Given Southwind’s clear bias toward elite ball-strikers, Coley labels Hovland the main threat to Scottie Scheffler and an outstanding each-way play at 33/1.

Baz Plummer allocated two units on Viktor Hovland at +3000 to win. Hovland captured the Valspar Championship earlier this summer and finished third at the U.S. Open in June, signaling peak form heading into the playoffs. The former FedEx Cup winner is top-10 in strokes gained at TPC Southwind and, like Thomas, excels in the 100-150-yard approach windows that dominate this layout. He finished runner-up in this event last season, giving Baz confidence the Norwegian's ceiling is worth chasing despite occasional volatility.

David Facey said Viktor Hovland is his preferred alternative to the short-priced Scottie Scheffler at this week’s St Jude Championship. Hovland tied for second at TPC Southwind 12 months ago and already proved he can peak in August by winning the 2023 FedEx Cup. Facey pointed to the Norwegian’s ceiling rounds this season—victory at the Valspar Championship and a third-place finish at the US Open—as proof his A-game still travels. With Scheffler just 5-2, Facey views the 25-1 outright quote on Hovland as outstanding value for bettors willing to fade the favorite.

Wes Reynolds played Viktor Hovland at 35-1 because only Scottie Scheffler has gained more strokes on approach in 2025. Hovland finished runner-up at Southwind a year ago and already proved his mettle on similar strategic, tree-lined layouts with a victory at the Valspar Championship earlier this season. He leads the field in proximity from 175-200 yards (16.17 feet gained) and ranks 16th in Total Driving, a vital combo on a course featuring the sixth-narrowest fairways and 11 water-hazard holes. Reynolds argues those ball-striking numbers give Hovland an outsized win equity relative to his price.

John Haslbauer said Viktor Hovland is his favorite outright bet in the Without-Scheffler market because the Norwegian perfectly mirrors the profile of the last five winners at TPC Southwind— shaky off the tee at times but lethal with mid-irons. Hovland ranks top-10 in SG: APP over the last 12 rounds, checks both SG: T2G and SG: P (Bermuda) boxes, and is one of only eight players to grade top-25 in those combined metrics. Course history is elite and trending upward (T59 → T36 → T20 → T13 → solo 2nd in 2024, when he nearly erased Hideki Matsuyama’s eight-shot Sunday lead). Haslbauer noted Southwind plays like a Florida-style target track with firm, fast Bermuda greens and 11 water-guarded holes—conditions Hovland already mastered earlier this year while winning the Valspar at Innisbrook. With many stars limping into the playoffs, Haslbauer expects Hovland’s sharp approach play and proven playoff ceiling (two FedEx Cup wins since 2023) to push him over the top at +1800 or longer.

Paulie advised betting Viktor Hovland to finish Top-20 at +120, arguing that the books are treating him as if he were out of form despite a rock-solid season. Hovland has made the cut in all four majors with three top-30 results, highlighted by a third at the U.S. Open, and already owns a win this year at the Valspar Championship. Statistically, he has gained strokes on approach in every tournament since Kapalua, underscoring elite iron play that suits TPC Southwind’s ball-striking demands. His track record at this event improves annually—59th, 36th, 20th, 13th, and second over the last five seasons—suggesting further upside. Given his trending finishes and spotless approach numbers, Paulie believes a top-20 ticket at +120 is a clear value.

Glasscott called Viktor Hovland an intriguing bounce-back bet at +3000. The Norwegian flashed elite form with a Saturday 63 at the Travelers before a neck issue forced a WD, then returned with closing 67-67 for T11 at the Scottish Open. He tied for runner-up at Southwind last year and has improved his finish every season in a five-year run at the course. With the injury discount baked into the odds and a layout that rewards his aggressive ball-striking, Glasscott sees significant upside for outright and DFS exposure.

Will Gray said TPC Southwind’s tight corridors and small greens reward crisp ball-striking, a profile tailor-made for Viktor Hovland. He reminded readers that Hovland already showed ceiling form with a win on another shot-makers layout at Innisbrook earlier this season and historically catches fire once the FedExCup Playoffs begin, referencing the tear he went on two years ago. That blend of course fit, recent win equity and proven playoff heater makes Hovland a value outright bet at +3000.

Joe Idone grabbed Viktor Hovland at 30-to-1 in the outright and 28-to-1 in the ‘without Scheffler’ market, arguing Southwind is tailor-made for Hovland’s fearless ball-striking. Idone noted the course’s water-lined fairways reward players willing to attack tucked pins—traits shared by past winners like Hideki Matsuyama and Justin Thomas. Hovland ranks near the top of the field in approach over his last 24 rounds and, according to Idone, is "super dialed in" with his mid-irons while the around-the-green weakness is masked by Southwind’s flat surfaces and forgiving bunkers. Idone also cited Hovland’s recent range session with coach Mark Blackburn as a positive signal ahead of the playoffs.

Hovland’s season-long approach streak finally snapped at Royal Portrush, but Gehman refuses to punish him for an Open-style setup. At TPC Southwind the Norwegian owns four top-20s in his last five appearances, including a runner-up last year where he ‘knocked the cover off the ball’ and rolled it well. With past ties to Memphis (former coach Jeff Smith) and comfort on the greens, Gehman expects another top-tier finish and sees $9.3k as a discount.

Kenny Kim explained he is saving Viktor Hovland for next week’s playoff event instead of firing him at the FedEx St. Jude. Kim noted that the Slider Cup payout multiplier jumps from 4× this week to 6× next week (and 8× at the Tour Championship), so burning a premium player like Hovland when the prize pool is larger maximizes expected return. He plans to deploy Hovland in that higher-multiplier slot to chase a late-season payout surge.

Byron Lindeque said Viktor Hovland is "absolutely live for hole-in-ones," a scoring category that carries a $700 bonus in their Slider Cup playoff format—nearly the same as the full-season runner-up prize. Because a single ace can single-handedly win weekly skins and dramatically shift playoff standings, Lindeque believes managers who still have Hovland available should consider inserting him for the FedEx St. Jude Championship to chase that outsized upside.

Kenny Kim locked Viktor Hovland in as his second Cash-Game Cornerstone, happy to “chalk up top.” Hovland ranks first in the field from both 150-175 and 175-200 yards and has led the field in overall ball-striking across the last 24 rounds. Kim argued that if Viktor keeps finding fairways and greens—something his metrics strongly suggest—the Norwegian’s shaky chipping will be required far less often, a formula that produced prior success at TPC Southwind. Byron Lindeque agreed, noting Hovland will “be chipping far less than everyone else.” Kim expects Hovland to contend and considers him safe for cash while still offering tournament-winning upside.

Byron Lindeque re-upped on Viktor Hovland at 35-1, stressing that Hovland ranks top-two across the approach-distance buckets most correlated with success at TPC Southwind. The Norwegian has twice flirted with victory here and, according to Byron, ‘this course is pure irons, exactly what Viktor does.’ Hovland’s number drifted from last year despite equal or better ball-striking form, making the outright ticket a value in Byron’s eyes.

Kim also grabbed Hovland outright at 30-1 with eight places. Beyond the elite proximity numbers, Hovland has gained strokes on approach in every recorded event this season, sits first in the field in both 150-175 and 175-200 proximity over 24 rounds, and has improved his FedEx St. Jude finish each visit, culminating in last year’s runner-up. Southwind rewards controlled drivers who keep big numbers off the card; Hovland ranks 4th in double-bogey avoidance since January. Kim argued that with the Norwegian’s trending course form and mid-iron dominance, 30-1 is too long in a limited playoff field.

Kenny Kim said he pounced on Viktor Hovland at +116 for a Top-20 on PlayProfitX after noticing most books sitting at –138. Kim argued the price is off by more than 50 points for a player whose game fits TPC Southwind perfectly. Hovland has gained strokes on approach in every measured start this season except the Sentry, ranks first in the field in proximity from both 150-175 and 175-200 yards over his last 24 rounds, and has improved his finish here four straight years (56th → 36th → 20th → 13th → runner-up). Kim also noted Southwind’s water trouble makes double-bogey avoidance critical, an area where Hovland has excelled since tightening up his short game. Given the iron profile, upward course trend and a demonstrable edge versus market consensus, Kim believes the plus-money Top-20 is a must-bet.

Gannon is fading Viktor Hovland in DFS even though the Norwegian checks every course-history box, projecting him to carry heavy ownership in the limited playoff field. With strong pivot options like Cantlay and Morikawa priced below, Gannon prefers to avoid Hovland chalk to gain tournament leverage.

Cintorino called Viktor Hovland the most logical outright on the board at 35-1. Hovland finished T-2 here last season and logged top-20s the two years prior, while his irons remain in mid-summer form. Cintorino added that Hovland ranks near the top of his overall model, is also 35-1 to win the entire FedEx Cup, and will likely be the betting public’s favorite play—but that does not deter him. In a short, no-cut playoff field, Hovland’s combination of course history, elite ball-striking and a ‘stripe city’ recent profile makes the Norwegian fully capable of winning this week.

Murray recommended Viktor Hovland at +3000 outright and +330 Top-10, arguing recent results show his swing tweaks are paying off. Hovland finished 3rd at the U.S. Open and T11 at the Scottish Open, giving him three Top-14 finishes in his last four Open Championships. In Murray’s model Hovland ranks 2nd in SG: Approach and 7th in Ball-Striking for this field. With his long-standing weakness—the short game—showing incremental improvement, Murray believes a neutral week around the greens puts Hovland firmly in the mix at Portrush.

Andrade touted Viktor Hovland at $10,700 because he sits 2nd to Scheffler in SG: Approach and leads the PGA Tour in approach shots outside 100 yards, a key yardage range on the long Portrush par-4s. Despite an inconsistent short game, Hovland has made eight straight cuts, winning the Valspar, finishing solo 3rd at the U.S. Open, and T11 last week in Scotland. He owns three top-15s in four Open appearances, reinforcing his ceiling for GPPs.

Viktor Hovland checks in at just $8,300 with +3000 odds, and Hochberg called that "incredibly cheap" for a player who finished T12-T4-T13 in his first three Opens, won the Valspar earlier this year, and placed T3 at last month’s U.S. Open. While his wedge game remains shaky, Hovland’s ball-striking ceiling makes him a tournament winner candidate at a mid-tier price.

While acknowledging Viktor Hovland’s world-class ball-striking, Fitzmaurice dismissed the Norwegian’s +3000 outright ticket because of a glaring weakness around the greens. He emphasized that Royal Portrush’s elevated, wind-exposed putting surfaces will force players to scramble frequently, and Hovland ranks near the bottom of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green. That Achilles heel, Pat believes, makes Hovland an easy fade.