Doug Ferguson cautioned against chasing Xander Schauffele’s +2000 outright number, pointing out that the defending champion has yet to record a win this season after being hampered by a rib injury early in the year. Ferguson reminded readers that no player has gone back-to-back at The Open since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08, underscoring how rare repeats are on links golf. With Schauffele still searching for peak form and history working against him, Ferguson framed the Californian as a fade candidate in outright markets despite the seemingly juicy price.

Doug Ferguson noted that Rory McIlroy is the second choice at +700 and comes in freed from the pressure of an 11-year major drought after capturing the Masters. Unlike 2019, when an emotional McIlroy snap-hooked his opening tee shot out-of-bounds at Portrush and shot 79, Ferguson reported that McIlroy is openly embracing the home-crowd expectations this time. With form good enough for the world No.2 ranking and a career-Grand-Slam lift in confidence, Ferguson suggested bettors looking for an outright should strongly consider McIlroy, especially with the crowd boost and familiarity with Royal Portrush’s quirks.

Doug Ferguson highlighted that BetMGM has Scottie Scheffler installed as a +550 outright favorite even though The Open is the only major where he has not been in serious contention on the back nine. Ferguson pointed out that Scheffler has not finished outside the top-10 in any event since late March, making a top-10 wager feel considerably safer than chasing the short outright price. Because Portrush’s links can produce unpredictable bounces and weather, Ferguson implied that Scheffler’s current form gives bettors a dependable floor no matter how quirky the conditions become.

Doug Ferguson warned bettors that defending champion Xander Schauffele, priced at +2000, faces an uphill battle at Portrush. Ferguson reported that the Californian dealt with a rib injury earlier in the season and still hasn’t logged a 2025 victory. He also reminded readers that no player has gone back-to-back at the Open since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08, underscoring the historical difficulty of a repeat. Given the recent lack of wins and the physical question mark, Ferguson suggested fading Schauffele in outright markets.

Doug Ferguson noted Rory McIlroy sits second on the BetMGM board at +700 and believes his circumstances are far better than in 2019, when nerves led to an opening-tee OB and a 79 at Royal Portrush. Ferguson emphasized that McIlroy has already shed the decade-long “major drought” narrative by winning the Masters to complete the career Grand Slam, allowing him to embrace rather than fear the home-course spotlight. With Portrush drawing a projected 278,000 spectators and McIlroy openly welcoming the support, Ferguson framed him as a strong outright or each-way option for bettors seeking a narrative-driven edge.

Doug Ferguson pointed out that BetMGM has Scottie Scheffler installed as a +550 outright favorite, keeping him atop the board at every 2025 major. Ferguson highlighted Scheffler’s remarkable consistency — the world No. 1 has not finished outside the top 10 in any start since late March. While the Open is the lone major where Scheffler hasn’t had a realistic back-nine chance to win, Ferguson stressed that his current form makes him a logical wager for win and top-10 markets despite links-golf variance.