Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500 on DraftKings before the number slips (already as low as 34-1 on FanDuel). MacMillan pointed out that the former U.S. Open champion finally appears to be rounding into shape, following a T17 at the Travelers Championship and a T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Fitzpatrick also boasts an excellent course record at Renaissance Club—runner-up in 2021 and sixth in 2022—indicating a clear comfort level with the pot-bunker-littered layout. Given those recent flashes of form and his past success at this tournament, MacMillan believes now is the ideal moment to jump on the Englishman at a still-generous price.

Cody Williams urged bettors to include Rico Hoey at +9000 on their outright cards, noting Detroit Golf Club suits Hoey’s skill set perfectly. Hoey debuted here last year with a T6 despite actually losing strokes off the tee; now he enters ranking 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee and fifth in Good Drive Percentage over his last 24 rounds. Even better, he sits eighth in SG: Putting on bent/poa over the past 36 rounds and fourth in Birdie or Better rate over the last 24, metrics Williams highlighted as critical in the low-scoring "putting contest" environment DGC often produces. With proven success in easy-scoring conditions and a weaponized driver now firing, Williams believes Hoey’s win probability is far greater than the implied 1.1 percent baked into 90-1 odds.

Cody Williams recommended taking a dice-roll on Emiliano Grillo at +7000, arguing no one in the field is striking the ball better right now. Grillo tops the model’s SG: Approach rankings and is sixth in both SG: Total on comp courses (DGC, TPC Twin Cities, Silverado, Craig Ranch) and Proximity from 100-150 yards, while ranking ninth in Good Drive Percentage. He has finished T24 or better in four straight starts—including a top-20 at the U.S. Open—while gaining 1.75 strokes per round with ball-striking over his last 24 rounds. Williams acknowledged Grillo is losing strokes with the putter, a concern in what can devolve into a putting contest, but maintained the 70-1 price more than compensates for that risk given his current tee-to-green ceiling.

Cody Williams said Ben Griffin is his favorite outright bet at +2200 on FanDuel for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Williams pointed to Griffin’s scorching five-tournament run—win at Colonial, runner-up at Memorial, T10 at the U.S. Open, and two other top-14 finishes—as proof the 27-year-old has "leveled up." The numbers back it up: over his last 12 rounds Griffin is gaining 0.53 strokes off the tee and 0.84 strokes on approach, a massive turnaround from his previous two Rocket Mortgage starts where he actually lost strokes in both categories. With the Detroit Golf Club historically rewarding hot ball-strikers who can go low (four of six winners have reached −23 or better) and this year’s field notably weaker than recent majors and signature events, Williams believes Griffin’s improved tee-to-green profile and streaking putter give him legitimate win equity well above the implied probability of 4.3 percent.

Iain MacMillan pointed to Brian Harman as the quintessential “horse for the course,” making him a must-sprinkle outright at +9000. Harman has finished inside the top 10 at the Travelers in seven of the last ten editions, including a runner-up in 2023, mirroring the repeat success Bubba Watson enjoyed here. The lefty already captured the Valero Texas Open this season, so confidence is high. MacMillan’s angle is simple: short, positional layout that rewards accuracy and an elite short game, two pillars of Harman’s profile. Add in his sterling course history and triple-digit upside, and MacMillan believes the 38-year-old is mis-priced at 90-1.

MacMillan recommended taking a shot on Cameron Young at +5500, arguing that the former PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is trending toward his long-awaited first victory. Young finished T5 at both the Canadian Open and last week’s U.S. Open, then heads to a track where he fired a Saturday 59 and finished inside the top 10 a year ago. The analyst noted that sharpening the irons—his lone statistical weakness in 2025—would put Young back in the mix because his driving and putting numbers are already elite. Given his recent surge and proven scoring ceiling at TPC River Highlands, MacMillan calls him live to break through at 55-1.

Iain MacMillan tabbed Russell Henley as his favorite long-shot outright at +5000, stressing that TPC River Highlands plays directly into Henley’s strengths. Distance off the tee is largely neutralized here, while precise iron play and greens-in-regulation rate are rewarded; Henley ranks 7th in this elite field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months. He arrives in Connecticut in peak form after a T5 at the Memorial and a T10 at the U.S. Open, and he already owns one signature-event victory this season. MacMillan believes that combination of recent ball-striking numbers, course fit, and confidence creates a realistic path to a second 2025 win at juicy 50-1 odds.

Iain MacMillan advised fading Rory McIlroy’s +850 outright number for Oakmont, arguing the Northern Irishman’s current form doesn’t justify single-digit odds. Since winning the Masters, McIlroy has failed to contend and is coming off a missed cut at the Canadian Open where he ballooned to +9 on Friday. MacMillan emphasized that Oakmont ruthlessly exposes any weakness, and McIlroy’s recent ball-striking dip and shaky putter make him a risky play compared to similarly-priced contenders. With Scheffler in dominant form and several big hitters like Bryson DeChambeau better suited to battle, MacMillan suggested steering clear of McIlroy tickets this week.

Iain MacMillan urged bettors to grab Scottie Scheffler at +275 to win the 2025 U.S. Open, noting the price carries a 26.67% implied probability— territory not seen since peak-Tiger days. MacMillan pointed to Scheffler’s torrid 18-month stretch: three wins in his last four starts, including the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow; eight consecutive top-8 finishes; and zero results outside the top-25 since the 2024 BMW Championship. Oakmont demands a complete skill set, and MacMillan called Scheffler "the one flawless golfer" whose tee-to-green dominance leaves virtually no holes for the brutal layout to exploit. With Rory McIlroy slumping and only Bryson DeChambeau or Jon Rahm viewed as remote threats, MacMillan framed another Scheffler major as the most likely outcome and labeled the +275 number worth the wager despite its shortness.

Iain MacMillan recommended Taylor Pendrith at +3500 to win his national open, citing a rare convergence of course fit, form, and local history. Pendrith’s calling card is elite length off the tee—exactly what MacMillan says is needed on the 13th-longest course on Tour—with wide fairways minimizing any accuracy concerns. The Canadian arrives hot: T5 at the PGA Championship and T12 at last week’s Memorial, where he ranked 2nd in the entire field (behind only Scottie Scheffler) in strokes-gained tee-to-green. Pendrith is also comfortable at TPC Toronto, having finished runner-up here during a PGA Tour Canada event in 2019. MacMillan believes those factors create 'an ideal course fit' and justify a 35-1 outright stab.

Iain MacMillan advised an outright wager on Shane Lowry at +2200, arguing the Irishman’s long-iron dominance is tailor-made for the 7,389-yard par-70 TPC Toronto layout. Lowry leads the PGA Tour in approach proximity from 200-225 yards and ranks 15th from 175-200 yards, the two distances most golfers will face on this stretched track. MacMillan noted Lowry sits 5th in total strokes gained and 2nd in strokes-gained tee-to-green this season, evidence that his overall game is peaking. Lowry also gained +2.0 true strokes on approach last week at the Memorial, reinforcing the recent form angle. With no Scottie Scheffler in the field and the Canadian Open lacking signature-event depth, MacMillan believes Lowry is 'playing too well not to snag a win' and is undervalued at +2200.

Calling the 55-1 number a misprice, Iain MacMillan advised betting Keegan Bradley to win The Memorial. Bradley sits fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over the last six months and is gaining +1.63 strokes per round in that span—elite ball-striking rarely attached to such long odds. He is fresh off a T8 at the PGA Championship, confirming recent form. MacMillan added that a win would bolster Bradley’s bid to serve as a player-captain for Team USA at the upcoming Ryder Cup, giving the veteran extra motivation this week.

Iain MacMillan recommended Corey Conners at +3300, calling him an ideal course fit because Muirfield Village rewards accuracy over raw length. Conners is 11th on Tour in driving accuracy, ninth in greens-in-regulation, and fifth in scrambling from the rough this season—skills MacMillan thinks give him a tangible edge on Jack Nicklaus’ penal layout. The Canadian has two top-20 finishes here in the past three years and is in rock-solid form with seven top-20s in his last eight starts. MacMillan views 33-1 as tangible value on a player whose skill set directly matches the venue’s demands.

Iain MacMillan said Justin Thomas is his favorite outright bet at +1800. Thomas ranks second in the entire Memorial field in True Strokes Gained over the last six months and already owns a 2025 victory at the RBC Heritage, something several peers near the top of the odds board cannot claim. MacMillan believes the number bakes in an overreaction to Thomas’ missed cut at the PGA Championship; prior to that hiccup, his form was trending up. Because Muirfield Village relentlessly rewards elite iron play, MacMillan expects Thomas’ approach game to keep him in contention all four days and sees the 18-1 price as a rare discount on a premier ball-striker.