Mike Spector recommends betting the Royals moneyline due to a significant pitching advantage against Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco. According to Spector, Carrasco appears to be near the end of his career based on extremely poor percentile rankings in key pitching metrics, including expected batting average (xBA), expected ERA (xERA), whiff percentage, and barrels allowed—each ranking in the bottom 13th percentile, with some in the seventh percentile or worse. Conversely, Kansas City starter Seth Lugo finished second in Cy Young voting last year and owns highly impressive recent performances against the Yankees, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in two starts last season and going a dominant 5-1 in his past six decisions against New York. Given this stark pitching disparity, Spector sees strong value in backing the underdog Royals.