Bill Harrelson urged bettors to take Ronald Acuna Jr under 1.5 total bases. Acuna has fallen short of that mark in 7 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 20. Counting back to the start of last season he has stayed under in 57 % of 100-plus games. Books such as Caesars, Hard Rock, Sleeper, and DraftKings are juicing the under as well. Harrelson pointed to favorable pitcher splits: the opposing right-hander is allowing a .238 average to right-handed hitters compared to a .272 overall clip. With Acuna’s own average sitting at .305 versus righties but the long-term under trend holding strong, Harrelson thinks the numbers justify fading the superstar’s total-bases line.

Bill Harrelson recommended betting Drew Rasmussen under 4.5 hits allowed against Cleveland. Rasmussen has cashed this prop in eight of his last ten outings and 18 of 25 starts this year (72 %). In a 29-game sample extending to last season he is 22-for-29 on the under. He limited the Guardians to a single hit in their most recent meeting and owns a .213 opponents’ batting average that sits in the top 15 % of MLB starters. Cleveland is the league’s worst offense versus right-handed pitching with a .225 team average, bolstering Harrelson’s confidence that the Guardians will struggle to reach five knocks.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Cody Bellinger to stay under 0.5 runs on Wednesday. Harrelson leaned on a 250-game data set in which Bellinger has failed to score in 57.5 % of contests (67-of-117 this season, 75-of-130 last season). Over his past nine games he has stayed under in seven, and he has done the same in four of the past seven meetings with Washington. The market backs the play as Hard Rock lists the under at –130. Harrelson added context around matchup splits: Bellinger owns just a .244 average versus right-handed pitching, while Nationals righty Cade Cavalli is holding left-handed bats to a .152 average. With Bellinger projected for roughly 4–5 plate appearances, Harrelson believes the combination of long-term trend and platoon disadvantage makes the under a solid value play.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus pick is Bo Naylor under 0.5 total bases versus Tampa Bay. The Guardians catcher has failed to register a hit in seven of his last ten games and 12 of his last 20. Against the Rays specifically he’s stayed under in five straight and five of the last six, an 83 % success rate. Season-to-date Naylor has been held to zero total bases in 51 of 86 contests (59 %) and in four of his last five home games. Harrelson expects roughly three plate appearances and, with most odds screens agreeing on the under, views it as a high-edge add to today’s card.

Bill Harrelson recommended betting Vinnie Pasquantino over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against the White Sox. DraftKings lists the over at –130 while Underdog and PrizePicks hang a pick-em line (≈ –119), giving bettors immediate value. Pasquantino has cashed this prop in seven of his last eight games and 13 of his last 20 (65 %). In 23 recent meetings with Chicago he’s 13-for-23 (57 %) and sits at 67-for-130 on the season (52 %). Harrelson acknowledged the full-season clip is middling but trusts the current form, noting a lifetime .333 average (1-for-3) off tonight’s starter Perez. The price-to-probability gap makes the over his preferred play.

Bill Harrelson backed Juan Soto to score higher than 6.5 fantasy points against the Phillies. Soto has cleared that mark in seven of his last ten games and four straight, highlighted by a 34-point explosion versus Atlanta followed by 14-, 11- and 11-point efforts, the last coming in a 13-3 Mets win over Philadelphia. Over his past 20 games he’s 16-for-20 (80 %) and owns a 65 % season-long hit rate across 129 contests. Adding last season brings a 300-game sample with a 63 % success rate. Harrelson also cited Soto’s .333 average and .600 slugging percentage versus Jesus Luzardo, reinforcing the over as a strong bet on Underdog.

Bill Harrelson said to fade Shane Baz by taking higher than 4.5 hits allowed. He noted the right-hander has surrendered at least five hits in nine consecutive outings, averaging 6.4 during that stretch. Baz has gone over the number in 14 of his last 20 starts and in 15 of 25 appearances this season (60 %). Harrelson contrasted that with Baz’s strong finish a year ago, pointing out the current dip in command and barrel rate. The line opened at pick-em on Underdog, and Harrelson expects it to climb once bettors see the recent trend, making the over a playable prop today.

Bill Harrelson took the over on Michael Harris II’s 6.5 fantasy-point line at Underdog. Harris has topped this mark in 10 of his last 11 contests while averaging 17 fantasy points during that stretch. In the current series he has posted 16 and 25 FP against Chicago, bringing his two-game average to 20. Harrelson added that Harris has cleared 6.5 in 14 of his last 20 outings and has smashed the White Sox in three of their last four meetings. Given the outfielder’s heater and an Underdog line Harrelson feels should be closer to 7.5-8, he is happy to ride the over.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Kodai Senga under 5.5 strikeouts. Senga has cashed this under in four of his last five starts, seven of his last ten (70 %), and six of his last seven overall. Across a 22-game sample dating back to last year, he has stayed below six punch-outs 68 % of the time. Harrelson emphasized that the Nationals are one of the league’s toughest offenses to strike out, and Senga has already come in under this line in both previous 2025 meetings with Washington. Given the contact-heavy matchup and Senga’s recent trend, Harrelson believes the under is the profitable side.

Bill Harrelson recommended playing Nick Castellanos for less than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on PrizePicks. Castellanos has failed to clear that number in 8 of his last 10 games and in 11 of his last 20 overall, including an 0-for-4 showing yesterday. Harrelson highlighted that the outfielder has stayed under in four of his last five meetings with Seattle and carries only a 46 % season-long hit rate on this combo prop. The matchup is even tougher Wednesday: Luis Castillo is holding opponents to a .248 average and right-handed batters to just .211. With Castellanos mired in a slump and facing a pitcher who neutralizes righties, Harrelson sees the under as the clear side.

Bill Harrelson played Matt Olson OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in Atlanta’s meeting with Cleveland. Olson has eclipsed this combo prop in 7 of his last 10 contests and 6 of his last 7, including a two-hit effort versus the Guardians earlier this week. He’s 3-for-4 on this line in his last four matchups with Cleveland. Season-to-date numbers show a 56% hit rate (68 of 122) compared with 49% last year, illustrating year-over-year improvement. Over his past 20 games Olson is logging 4.6 plate appearances per night and has averaged 2.7 combined H+R+RBI over his past seven. Harrelson said the pitching matchup is effectively neutral—only two career PAs against the Guardians’ starter—but other books like Fliff and Sleeper have already shaded the over, giving Underdog players a friendly price. High volume and a scorching bat make Olson a core play in Harrelson’s Saturday card.

Bill Harrelson recommended OVER 4.5 strikeouts for Cade Povich on Saturday. The Orioles left-hander has crushed this line in 8 of his last 10 outings, including seven straight games of 5+ Ks and peak performances of 9, 9 and 7 punch-outs. Over his last 20 starts he’s 13-for-20 (65%), and in 2025 specifically he’s cleared 9 of 14 (64%). Harrelson acknowledged a rough start against Houston on 8/23/24 but dismissed it as stale data, noting that Povich’s strikeout rate now sits in the top 25th percentile while he averages 5.1 innings per start. With those extra outs and a whiff-heavy profile, Harrelson expects at least five strikeouts even if the Astros make early contact. Books still hanging 4.5 give bettors a value number according to his model.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Ryan Noda for UNDER 0.5 total bases Saturday against Houston. Harrelson pointed out that Noda has failed to record a base hit in 8 of his past 10 games and 15 of his last 20 (75% clip). On the 2025 season he is 12-for-16 clearing this under (75%) while batting an anemic .106. Noda averaged only 3.5 plate appearances per contest, and Harrelson noted a smaller batting order turn would be “absolutely huge” for the play. He added that Underdog and Bet365 are the only books still hanging this prop, which increases edge for bettors. Historical context showed Noda stayed under in 64% of games last year as well, reinforcing the fade. All context led Harrelson to label the under as his favorite hitter prop of the slate.

Bill Harrelson took Patrick Bailey to record at least one base versus Tampa Bay. Bailey has reached safely in 7 of his past 9 and 13 of his last 20 (65 %). At Oracle Park he’s cleared in 4 of his last 5, averaging 1.4 bases. Across 83 games this season he’s hit in 55 % of contests and posted a 60 % rate over 104 games last year. Harrelson noted Bailey’s improved splits versus right-handed pitching, while the Rays’ scheduled righty owns a .156 opponents’ average that tightens to .145 against lefties, effectively neutral. With roughly four plate appearances expected, Harrelson believes Bailey will pick up a hit or walk and top the 0.5 total-bases/on-base line.

Bill Harrelson recommended the higher than 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs prop for Giancarlo Stanton against St. Louis. Stanton has cashed this number in 15 of his last 20 (75 %) and both recent meetings with the Cardinals, averaging 2.7 HRR in his last 19 road games. On the 2025 season he’s 24-for-36 (67 %) on the prop after just 52 % last year. Harrelson highlighted Andrew Palante’s 4.95 ERA and .281 BAA versus righties, while Stanton owns a .298 average off right-handers (.299 overall). With New York projected to produce far more than Thursday’s single run and Stanton likely seeing 4–5 plate appearances, Harrelson expects him to eclipse the 1.5 mark.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story’s 0.5-run line is still too low while the shortstop is on a heater. Story has crossed the plate in 8 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 14 outings, averaging 1.1 runs with 4.4–4.6 plate appearances per game. Career numbers versus Sandy Alcantara jump off the page: .375 average, .444 OBP, .625 SLG. Alcantara is surrendering a .298 average to right-handed hitters, roughly 10 % worse than his overall .272 mark. With Story scorching and the pitcher struggling versus righties, Harrelson expects at least one trip home plate and took the higher than 0.5 runs on PrizePicks.

Bill Harrelson targeted the under 1.5 total bases for Warming Bernabel, calling it his favorite play of the day. Bernabel has stayed under in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5 outings. On the season he is 10-for-17 (59%) to the under, and against Arizona he has been held below this mark in two of three meetings. DraftKings, Caesars, and Sleeper all price the under at roughly −135 while Underdog is still hanging even odds, signaling a clear market discrepancy Harrelson wants to exploit. Split stats back the fade as well: Bernabel’s batting average drops from .312 overall to .263 versus left-handed pitching, and Diamondbacks lefty starter Rodriguez limits right-handed hitters to a .291 average. Harrelson is leveraging the combination of recent form, platoon drop-off, and mispriced odds to bet Bernabel stays under 1.5 bases.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Adrian Del Castillo under 0.5 runs. The catcher has stayed under in 9 of his past 10 and 17 of his last 20 games, and when he does score it has been two runs at once, highlighting the volatility. He has failed to score in 12 of 14 games this season and has not crossed the plate in 12 straight road appearances. Historical head-to-head is modest (scoreless in two of four vs Colorado), and in five career plate appearances versus Rockies starter Balalik he is just 1-for-5. With all major books agreeing on the under and his recent travel splits so poor, Harrelson is comfortable fading Del Castillo’s run prop once more.

Bill Harrelson said to take the under on Jackson Holliday’s 0.5-run prop. Holliday has failed to score in 8 of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20 (70%). Against Seattle specifically he is score-less in 4 of 5 meetings this season, including the first two games of the current series. Across 109 games in 2025 he has stayed under in 61% of contests despite averaging 4.5 plate appearances, and he has come up empty in eight of his last nine overall. Harrelson therefore expects the cold streak to continue and is betting that Holliday does not cross the plate on Thursday.

Harrelson urged bettors to take Jurickson Profar OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against David Peterson and the Mets. Profar has cleared this line in eight of his last ten and six of his last seven games (2.7 combo stats per outing). He’s cashed the over in two straight against New York and five of the last eight (63%). Season-to-date he’s 25-for-39 (64%) on the prop, up from a 53% rate across 165 games last year. The switch-hitter owns a .250 average versus lefties ( .238 overall ) while Peterson yields a .244 average to right-handed bats. With roughly five projected plate appearances and other books like DraftKings aligned at the same number, Harrelson likes riding the hot bat.

Harrelson recommended betting Pete Crow-Armstrong UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Crow-Armstrong has only three hits in his last nine games and sits under this combo line in five straight. He is averaging 4.1 plate appearances and, while better against right-handers, faces a pitcher who is allowing just a .177 average to left-handed bats ( .214 overall ). The Cubs outfielder has stayed under in 12 of his last 20 (60%) and in two consecutive matchups with Toronto dating back to last year. Harrelson expects the slump to continue against Gausman’s splitter-heavy approach.

Bill Harrelson advised taking the UNDER 5.5 hits-allowed prop on left-hander Cristopher Sanchez against Cincinnati. The Reds are batting just .203 versus southpaws over their last 30 games, a bottom-five percentile mark. Sanchez has held Cincinnati below this number in both prior meetings and owns a 61% season hit rate to the under (13-of-20, 6-of-10 most recent). Although four of his last five road starts went over, Harrelson believes the opponent’s weakness plus Sanchez’s overall trend outweigh the split. He also noted that Underdog is the only book still hanging the 5.5, giving bettors an edge before the market moves.

Harrelson argued that Chase Brown is being drafted a round too late in current fantasy drafts. He believes the back should be a late-first or early-second rounder based on projected workload and pass-catching upside yet is regularly available in the mid-second or later. Harrelson is snapping up the discount wherever possible, calling Brown one of the best ADP arbitrage plays on the board.

Bill Harrelson said he is betting Calvin Ridley to go OVER his season-long receiving-yardage prop. Ridley led the NFL in unrealized air yards last year, indicating ample opportunity. Harrelson believes incoming quarterback Cam Ward is a sizable upgrade over last season’s Will Levis situation, giving Ridley a more accurate deep passer to convert those air yards into production. With a stable target share and a better passer, Harrelson expects Ridley to smash the posted total.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases against the Rangers. Carroll is scorching, racking up 15 total bases across his last four games and cashing this prop in seven of his past ten and 12 of the last 20 (60%). He has also gone over in three straight meetings with Texas. Season-long, Carroll has topped the line in 51 of 97 games (53%), but Harrelson emphasized the current momentum and noted FanDuel prices the over at –140 while PrizePicks still offers it at even odds. Carroll averages about 4.5 plate appearances and should see five trips versus a right-hander sporting a 4.00 ERA, a split where Carroll has been slightly better than his baseline. Harrelson dubbed the over a must-add leg before the books adjust.

Bill Harrelson called Rowdy Tellez over 0.5 total bases his favorite play of the slate. Tellez has recorded at least one total base in nine consecutive games and 15 of his last 20 (75%). After a sluggish start he has cleared the mark in roughly 60% of his past 55 games and 35 of 61 on the season. Harrelson pointed to a favorable platoon setup: the right-handed opposing starter gives up a .256 average to lefties versus .241 overall, while Tellez hits .234 against righties compared to .223 on the year. With three to four expected plate appearances and recent hard-contact surge—including a five-base outing against Arizona two days ago—Harrelson likes pairing this over with other props on Underdog or PrizePicks.

Bill Harrelson said Dane Myers should stay below 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs Tuesday versus Cleveland. Myers has cashed this under in nine straight games and in 17 of his last 20 (85%), collecting just one hit during that span despite averaging 3–4 plate appearances. He also stayed under the number the last time he faced the Guardians. For the season, Myers has gone under in 48 of 72 games (67%). Harrelson added that Myers is 0-for-3 lifetime off projected starter Logan Allen and that Underdog Fantasy is the only book still offering the prop, signaling market value. He views the under as a strong single-prop or anchor leg on PrizePicks.

Bill Harrelson’s third pick is Blaze Alexander over 0.5 total bases. Alexander has recorded at least one base in eight of his last ten games and is on a three-game streak after the Colorado series. He has cashed this prop in 14 of his last 20 and 16 of 24 games this season (67%), while last year he still hit at a 58% clip. Plate appearances are trending up— 4.0 per game this year and 4.1 over the last ten, with nine straight games of four or more at-bats. Alexander faces Nathan Eovaldi, but he actually hits right-handers better: .282 vs RHP compared to a .256 overall average, nearly a 10% bump. Major books align with the over, and Harrelson likes the combination of steady volume and favorable handedness split to snag a single base.

Bill Harrelson backed Ryne Nelson to stay below 2.5 earned runs allowed in Arlington. Although Nelson surrendered four runs to Texas last season, 2025 has been a different story: he has held opponents under this number in 12 of 14 starts (86%), including four straight and nine of his last ten. In his last 20 appearances he is 17-3 to the under, and advanced metrics place him in the top 10–15% of MLB pitchers this year. The spot is ideal because the Rangers rank bottom-five against right-handed pitching, slashing just .234 on the season and .223 over their last 30 games. Nelson averages 5.2 innings per outing— plenty of leash to post a quality start— and Sleeper as well as other books have already juiced the under. Harrelson called it his favorite play of the day.

Bill Harrelson said he is fading Trea Turner on Monday, taking less than 1.5 total bases against Cincinnati. Turner has stayed under this line in 8 of his last 10 games and 13 of his last 20 (65%). In nine recent meetings with the Reds he has fallen short six times, most recently finishing with just one base a month ago. The matchup is tough: Andrew Abbott gets the ball for Cincinnati and Turner is only 1-for-8 lifetime (.143) against the left-handed ace. While Turner is still seeing roughly 4.5 plate appearances a night, his season-long under rate is 61%— up from 53% a year ago— and Harrelson noted that Caesars, DraftKings, Fliff, Novig and Sleeper are all pricing the under aggressively. With Turner mired in his coldest stretch of the season, Harrelson is comfortable betting the under on 1.5 total bases.

Bill Harrelson’s bonus pick is Sam Haggerty to record at least one time on base against Philadelphia. Haggerty has reached in eight of his last ten and 15 of his last 20 (75%). He tallied three total bases versus the Phillies yesterday and owns a 74% success rate this season (25-for-34). The outfielder averages roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game and has cashed the prop in eight of his last nine overall. Harrelson acknowledged the downgrade in matchup against Zack Wheeler but argued Haggerty’s current form outweighs the pitching step-up. Underdog is the lone book posting this prop, so bettors can take advantage of an isolated line while the market catches up.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Giancarlo Stanton over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in Sunday’s Astros–Yankees matchup. Stanton cleared this number in Game 2 of the series and has hit in four of his last five overall. Over a longer horizon he’s 8-for-10 and 16-for-20 (80%) on the prop, while head-to-head he’s 5-for-6 against Houston. In 2025 Stanton has played 33 games and cashed 22 times (67%). Yankee Stadium splits are even better: seven of his past eight home appearances with a 2.9 HRR average. Harrelson added that Stanton’s platoon numbers lean positive versus right-handed pitching, the side he’ll see Sunday. Only PrizePicks and Underdog list this combo prop, giving bettors limited market exposure and a chance to exploit the soft 1.5 line.

Bill Harrelson said to take Carlos Correa for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against the Yankees. Harrelson pointed out that Correa has cashed this prop in five straight contests and actually seven straight overall, logging two-plus hits in each of the last two meetings with New York. He has also cleared the number in four consecutive head-to-head matchups dating back to early June 2024. On the road Correa has hit this mark in seven straight games, averaging 3.1 combined HRR over that stretch. Although his 2025 season-long hit rate is just 51%, Harrelson noted last year’s 62% clip over 85 games as evidence the ceiling is real. Correa owns a .280 average versus left-handed pitching (slightly above his .276 baseline) and will face Max Fried, who is allowing a .221 average to right-handed bats—worse than his overall .218. Correa is getting roughly five plate appearances per game lately, and PrizePicks/Underdog are the only books still hanging this 1.5 line, giving bettors a unique edge.

Harrelson’s bonus play is Tyler Soderstrom over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, which pairs with his Senga fade. Soderstrom has hit this mark in 8 of his last 10 games, including seven straight, and has posted exactly three combined H+R+RBI in each of his last four. That run pushes him to 14-for-20 (70%) despite a 53% season baseline. He has gone over in four of his last five road starts, averaging 3.2 in that split, and has cleared the number in two of three career plate appearances versus Senga. DraftKings, Fliff, and Sleeper are all juicing the over, reinforcing Harrelson’s confidence that Soderstrom continues his multi-category tear in Queens.

Bill Harrelson is riding Bo Bichette’s heater, backing the over 7.5 fantasy points on Underdog. Bichette has cleared this mark in 9 of his last 10 games, including eight straight, thanks to a 28-point effort yesterday and a 39-pointer two games earlier during Toronto’s 45-run outburst in Colorado. Although his season hit rate is 57%, Harrelson trusts recent form and notes Bichette has two hits in three career plate appearances versus Clayton Kershaw. With the Blue Jays’ lineup scorching and Underdog the only book still hanging 7.5, Harrelson believes bettors have a short window before the line moves upward.

Bill Harrelson recommended the less-than 5.5 strikeouts line on Drew Rasmussen in Seattle. Rasmussen has failed to reach six punch-outs in nine of his last ten starts and 16 of his last 18. His lone meeting with the Mariners last season produced only two strikeouts. On the 2025 campaign he has exceeded 5.5 Ks in just 4 of 22 starts (18%), and if you include 2024 he is 22-for-26 to the under. Books are already moving the number, and Harrelson views that steam as confirmation. With Seattle’s strikeout rate sitting near league average and Rasmussen rarely working deep into games, he projects another 4-to-5 K night and calls the under one of the best value props on the board.

Bill Harrelson said he is fading Kodai Senga’s run prevention, recommending the more-than 2.5 earned-runs prop for Friday’s start against Oakland. Senga has allowed 3+ earned runs in 8 of his last 10 outings and 12 of his last 20. During that ten-game window he is averaging only five innings and 3.6 earned runs while grading in the bottom 25th percentile of MLB starters by Harrelson’s model. Oakland, meanwhile, ranks top-10 in team batting average over the past 30 games, making this a tougher matchup than casual bettors realize. Harrelson also noted that Fliff and DraftKings already have the over juiced, signaling market agreement that the 2.5 line is soft. He expects at least three runs surrendered and views the prop as one of his strongest plays of the slate.

Bill Harrelson advised taking James Wood under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs. Wood has failed to clear that number in eight of his last ten games and 16 of his last twenty (80%), including both meetings with Oakland this series despite one contest featuring seven Nationals runs. Over his last 19 games he averages just 0.7 HRR, illustrating how ice-cold the bat is. Harrelson expects another low-scoring affair and noted that multiple prop sites have the under juiced or at least even-money, making it a value fade until Wood shows signs of life.

Bill Harrelson faded Darell Hernaiz by taking under 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs in Thursday’s game with Washington. Hernaiz has stayed under this line in 7 of his last 10 and 15 of his last 20 contests (75%), and in 5 of 7 appearances this season. Going back to 2024 he was under in 30 of 39 games (77%). Harrelson added context that Hernaiz’s batting average dips from .318 overall to .286 versus left-handed pitching, and he draws a southpaw who is holding right-handed hitters to .275. After Oakland’s unsustainably loud 16-run game earlier in the week, Harrelson expects fewer plate appearances and sees value on the under, which most prop books have priced as a pick’em.

Bill Harrelson urged bettors to take Bobby Witt Jr. over 1.5 total bases in Game 3 against Boston. Witt has eclipsed this mark in eight of his last ten and in each of the first two games of the series, giving him three straight overs. He sports a 55% hit rate in 2025 (62 of 113) and roughly the same 54–55% clip across the past 280 games. Versus Boston he has cleared in five of the last seven meetings, including a 10-total-base eruption. FanDuel and DraftKings list the over around ‑130, and Witt’s 4.5 plate-appearance average—likely five on Wednesday—adds volume upside. Harrelson views the prop as mis-priced on PrizePicks/Underdog.

Bill Harrelson recommended betting Ha-Seong Kim under 0.5 runs scored against the Angels. Kim has not scored in five straight, nine of his last ten, and 16 of his last twenty games (80%). He is 0-for-his-last-4 in crossing the plate versus the Angels. Through 14 games this season he has stayed under in 11 (79%). Harrelson pointed out Kim’s .222 overall average but a woeful .118 mark against right-handed pitching across 18 plate appearances, while opposing starter Anderson is limiting righties to .255. Sleeper and Hard Rock are already shading the under, reinforcing value on PrizePicks.

Bill Harrelson said Andrew Abbott should stay under 2.5 earned runs in Wednesday’s start versus Chicago. Abbott has cashed this number in eight of his last nine outings and in 16 of 19 starts in 2025 (84%), surrendering just 1.4 earned runs per game during that stretch. He also held the Cubs to one earned run in each of two previous meetings this season and has a 68% hit rate on the same prop going back to 2024. Harrelson referenced Abbott’s “advanced metrics off the charts” and noted that rival books such as Hard Rock and Fliff have either juiced or removed the line, calling it a clear mis-price on PrizePicks/Underdog.

Bill Harrelson targeted Bo Bichette for more than 7.5 fantasy points on Underdog. Bichette has beaten this number in nine of his last ten games and three straight versus Kansas City. Now he heads to hitter-friendly Coors Field, where the thin air and shorter dimensions historically inflate run-scoring. Overall he has topped 7.5 in 14 of his last 20 (70%) and in two of his last three meetings with Colorado. Harrelson emphasized Bichette’s road splits: seven of his past eight away games have cleared the mark, averaging 14.5 fantasy points. Season-long hit rate is 55%, but the recent form and park upgrade make the over a priority prop play Tuesday.

Bill Harrelson recommended Brayan Rocchio to record more than 0.5 total bases against the Mets. Rocchio has cashed this prop in eight of his last nine outings and 14 of his last 20 (70%), including a two-base effort in yesterday’s series opener. Although his full-season hit rate sits at 50%, Harrelson noted the rookie’s recent surge on the right side of the game-log chart and his improved numbers versus right-handed pitching, the handedness he will see Tuesday. Rocchio averages about four plate appearances per game, giving multiple chances to scratch out a single or better. With every major DFS app listing the same 0.5 base number, Harrelson believes the over is the sharp side.

Bill Harrelson said to take Trea Turner for less than 1.5 total bases Tuesday. Turner has failed to clear this line in seven of his last eight contests and owns just one total base across his last five games. Harrelson highlighted that the shortstop has stayed under in 14 of the past 20 (70%) and in 67 of 110 games on the 2025 season (61%). Recent matchup data is equally bleak: Turner went 0-for-5 in yesterday’s 13-3 blowout of Baltimore and is 0-for-3 lifetime against Tuesday starter Dean Kremer, who is limiting right-handed hitters to a .249 average compared to .257 overall. Turner has also stayed under in nine of his last eleven home games. All the major pick-em apps are posting the same 1.5 line, so Harrelson views the under as a strong prop bet on PrizePicks/Underdog.

Bill Harrelson backed JP Sears to allow fewer than 5.5 hits against the Diamondbacks, emphasizing that the line is exclusive to Underdog and therefore offers unique value. Sears has given up five or fewer hits in 13 of his last 20 starts, eight of his last ten, and four of his last five. He limited Seattle to exactly five hits in his most recent outing and surrendered the same total to Arizona in their lone 2024 matchup. The Oakland left-hander has cashed this prop in 14 of 22 starts this season (64%) and in 56% of his combined starts since the beginning of 2024. Over his last six outings he is averaging only 3.8 hits allowed, well below Monday’s 5.5 line. With that recent contact-suppression trend and the historical hit rates firmly on the bettor’s side, Harrelson expects Sears to keep the under streak rolling.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Alejandro Kirk for less than 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Underdog, noting that no other book is even hanging such an aggressive number. Kirk has stayed under this threshold in eight of his last ten and 15 of his last twenty games (75%), a run that includes five straight unders. He is under in 65 of 89 games this season (73%) and 140 of roughly 190 games dating back to 2024 (74%). Harrelson pointed out that the catcher averages just 3.8 plate appearances, so he likely needs two hits plus a run or RBI to beat the line—something he has failed to do in five of his last six road starts. Even though he has previously cashed the under in both meetings with Colorado, the market is still pricing him as if three combined stats are likely. Harrelson called the probability far below the implied odds and expects Kirk to stay under.

Bill Harrelson said Jose Ramirez is a smash play for the higher than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs prop against the Mets. DraftKings already has the over juiced to –135 while Underdog is still even money, giving bettors free line value. Ramirez has cleared this number in five straight games, in eight of his last ten, and in 16 of his last 19 (84%), producing five and six combined stats the past two nights. He has topped 1.5 in each of his last three meetings with New York (3, 6, 2) and owns a .429 batting average with a .500 OBP in eight career plate appearances versus projected left-handed starter Joey Lucchesi. For 2025 he has cashed this prop in 60% of 108 games, matching the 60% rate from 2024, giving a 276-game sample at that same success rate. He has gone over in five of his last six road games (2.7 average) and is batting .345 versus lefties compared to .300 overall. Harrelson expects roughly five plate appearances and likes the switch-hitter to keep the heater alive.

Bill Harrelson recommended the UNDER 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs for Orlando Arcia in Sunday’s Rockies-Pirates matchup. Arcia has fallen short of this number in 9 of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20 (85%). He is 5-for-7 to the under in his last seven meetings with Pittsburgh and owns a 74% season-long under rate (34-of-46). Over his past 12 games at Coors Field he is averaging just 0.7 H/R/RBI. Harrelson highlighted Arcia’s .179 overall batting average and a worse .167 mark against right-handed pitching, while Pirates starter Mitch Keller is limiting righties to a .229 average versus a .243 overall. With other books pricing the under similarly, Harrelson expects Arcia and a lackluster Colorado lineup to stay quiet once again.

Bill Harrelson backed Giancarlo Stanton to RECORD A HIT OR WALK (PrizePicks "to get on base") against Miami. Stanton has reached safely in nine of his last ten games and in eight straight, averaging 2.1 total bases during the streak. He has cleared this prop in 17 of his last 19 contests overall and is 5-for-5 getting on base versus the Marlins since the start of 2024, producing four-plus total bases in four of those games. In 2025 he has reached in 26 of 34 appearances (76% hit rate) and is batting .267, a number Harrelson noted jumps nearly 10 points when the slugger faces right-handed pitching—the matchup he draws Sunday. Despite the strong trend, the on-base prop is still near even money across the market, making it Harrelson’s favorite play in Yankees-Marlins.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jose Altuve UNDER 1.5 total bases on PrizePicks for the 11:35 AM series finale at Fenway. The capper pointed out that Altuve has failed to reach two bases in eight of his last ten outings, including both games against Boston this weekend. Looking back 20 games the under is hitting 55% (11-of-20), and over a 107-game 2025 sample the under is still 55%. When you fold in last season’s 155 games Altuve has stayed below 1.5 in roughly 56% of his last 260 contests. He has been particularly quiet versus the Red Sox, falling short in five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Sportsbooks agree—Bet365, Caesars, DraftKings, Hard Rock, Sleeper and others all have the under juiced—while nothing in the individual matchup with Lucas Giolito (career .273 average vs a .281 baseline) screams breakout. Harrelson expects another one-or-zero-base day and is locking in the under before first pitch.