Data Skrive projected a 4‑3 Padres victory despite the books hanging San Diego at +139. Their model likes the Friars because they check every current‑form box: a 15‑5 overall record, a league‑best .277 team batting average, and the second‑lowest staff ERA at 2.75. Offensively, Fernando Tatis Jr. is pacing the lineup with six homers and a .342 average while the club is striking out just 6.6 times a night — fewest in MLB — a sharp contrast to the Astros’ scuffling offense that sits 24th in runs (3.8 per game) and 22nd in average (.223). On the mound, unbeaten Michael King (3‑0) gets the ball opposite Hayden Wesneski (1‑1, 4.00 ERA). Houston has been a shaky favorite all year (6‑6 overall, 1‑2 when priced -165 or shorter), so the tout believes the matchup and market mispricing make the Padres a plus‑odds moneyline buy.