Daniel Kohn relayed that the SportsLine Projection Model makes the Over 8.5 runs the preferred play for Friday’s matinee at Wrigley. After running 10,000 simulations, the model spit out a 9.6-run median outcome and is riding a 27-21 (56%) profit streak on top-rated MLB picks in 2025. The analytics bump comes from both lineups entering hot—Chicago has gone 8-2 in its last 10 with four straight wins while Cincinnati owns a .301-hitting T.J. Friedl and unbeaten (4-0, 1.77 ERA) rookie Andrew Abbott on the hill. The Cubs counter with Colin Rea, who has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in nine of 11 outings but rarely works deep, putting extra innings in the hands of two middling bullpens. Add in a day-game Wrigley wind that historically boosts run production and the model sees enough scoring paths to justify an Over ticket at the current 8.5 number.

Sia Nejad’s favorite specialty play is Adam Scott at +200 to finish as the top Oceania player at the Memorial. Scott only needs to beat Ryan Fox, Cam Davis and Min Woo Lee, and Nejad argues the veteran’s skill-set is better suited to Muirfield Village. Scott has a complete tee-to-green profile and historically pops in signature events, illustrated by his T-12 at the PGA Championship. Fox’s newfound accuracy still looks shaky on a course that punishes misses, while Davis and Lee are prone to blow-up drives that will bring the thick rough and water into play. Nejad expects Scott’s experience on firm bentgrass greens and focus on elite fields to separate him, making +200 a value in a four-man race.

Sia Nejad said he is targeting Si Woo Kim in the "without Scottie Scheffler" outright market at 35-to-1 because the South Korean checks every box Muirfield Village demands. Nejad highlighted Kim’s precision off the tee and tidy short game—especially his elite around-the-green play—as perfect complements for Jack Nicklaus’s thick rough and shaved run-offs. Kim has finished inside the top-15 in each of his last four Memorial starts, evidence the course fit is real. Recent form backs it up: four straight top-30 finishes, all with positive strokes gained on approach and around the green. Nejad believes casual bettors will chase higher-profile names like Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay, leaving Kim mis-priced despite having fewer current holes in his game. Rather than eat Scheffler’s short price, Nejad prefers Kim at 35-1 in the "without Scheffler" market and would sprinkle a top-10 ticket as well.

Sia Nejad said Sepp Straka is another strong DFS option despite a middling around-the-green profile because he keeps overcoming that weakness every time he tees it up at Muirfield Village. Straka owns two wins this season and comes in on a heater, yet his salary remains modest. His tee-to-green form has been consistently positive, and his past visits to the Memorial show he can navigate Jack’s Place even when the chip-and-pitch game is tested. Nejad likes pairing Straka with a high-priced stud to balance lineups while still retaining win equity.

Sia Nejad recommended Matt Fitzpatrick as a DFS buy, arguing that the public still perceives him through the lens of his poor early-2025 results even though the underlying numbers have ticked up. Fitzpatrick finished T-8 at last week’s PGA Championship and has gained strokes ball-striking in two of his last three starts. Nejad emphasized Fitzpatrick’s elite short game, which he expects to play an outsized role on Muirfield Village’s small, tricky greens. Because Fitzpatrick sits in a salary tier that gamers often skip – squeezed between the Schefflers and lower-priced punt options – Nejad believes rostering him offers both upside and a natural ownership discount.

Patrick McDonald tabbed Keegan Bradley as his favorite deep challenger to Scheffler, noting that Bradley ranks 2nd only to Scheffler in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the past three months and is the only player in the Memorial field sitting inside the top-20 in both driving accuracy and driving distance. Bradley’s putting has been shaky in 2025, but Muirfield Village’s relatively straightforward bentgrass greens have treated him well – he has gained strokes putting here in four straight starts. McDonald pointed to Bradley’s field-average putting week at the PGA Championship that still produced a top-10 finish as proof that merely neutral putting unlocks winning upside. He believes a positive week with the flat stick would put Bradley firmly in contention and makes him an appealing outright ticket or mid-range DFS play.

Patrick McDonald said Scottie Scheffler is the clear cut play at Muirfield Village because the course demands exactly what Scheffler is doing better than anyone right now. Over the last three months Scheffler ranks 1st in this field in total strokes gained, tee-to-green, off-the-tee, and on approach, and he is even a top-10 putter – a club that had been his lone weakness earlier in the season. McDonald added that Jack Nicklaus designs typically favor a left-to-right ball flight, which is Scheffler’s natural shot shape. Scheffler’s recent form at the Memorial is 3rd, 3rd, 1st, so McDonald expects “another run at the title” and views him as worth paying up for in DFS builds or as the justified betting favorite in outrights and top-5 markets.

John Breech expects Dalton Kincaid to regain momentum after a "weird" second season where he posted only 44 catches—still second on the team—but saw Josh Allen complete just 58% of passes when targeting him versus 64% to everyone else. Breech chalked it up to timing issues, not talent. Buffalo’s quiet offseason at pass catcher—adding only Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore—signals the staff still views Kincaid as a focal point. If the Allen-Kincaid connection normalizes to league-average efficiency, the young tight end could push for 70-plus receptions and solid TE1 status in season-long formats.

Tyler Sullivan labeled Sam LaPorta a mild bounce-back candidate, stressing that the tight end’s dip was about opportunity, not skill. LaPorta’s targets fell from 120 as a rookie to 83 last year, yet he remained efficient in YPR and catch rate. Sullivan acknowledged Detroit’s buffet of weapons—Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery—and the OC change with Ben Johnson leaving, but argued that even a modest bump in volume would vault LaPorta back into the top-eight TE tier. He’s a value if drafters overreact to last season’s raw totals.

Tyler Sullivan agreed Reed is headed for a step back, pointing to the Packers investing both a first- and third-round pick at wide receiver. Sullivan said the front office is "letting us know" they dislike the current room. Reed’s game-log volatility—one week 120 yards, the next 30—underscored that concern, and his final eight games (19-237-3) are well below a true No. 1 WR pace. With greater target competition and no evidence of week-to-week reliability, Sullivan considers Reed a fade in season-long drafts.

John Breech predicted a Year-3 fallback for Jayden Reed. He cited Josh Jacobs’ offseason quote that the Packers "don’t have a No. 1 WR" as an insider red flag, then highlighted Green Bay selecting a wideout in Round 1 for the first time in 22 years and doubling down with Savion Williams in Round 3. That draft capital, Breech argued, screams front-office dissatisfaction with Reed’s ceiling after a 55-catch, 657-yard sophomore campaign that already trailed his rookie totals. Expect Reed to slide into complementary duty and lose targets to the incoming rookies—bad news for fantasy managers counting on a leap.

John Breech echoed the bounce-back call for C.J. Stroud, noting Houston’s front office "just blew things up" after Stroud absorbed the NFL’s second-most sacks. The Texans traded Laremy Tunsil, cut multiple starters, then rebuilt the unit with Cam Robinson, Trent Brown and second-round pick Arontae Ursery. Breech pointed out that Stroud lost Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs to season-ending injuries while Nico Collins battled a bad hamstring, leaving the QB without his top three receivers for long stretches—an impossible situation for a young passer. With healthier weapons and a remade line, Breech expects 2023-style efficiency to return and labeled Stroud a strong buy heading into 2025 redraft and dynasty leagues.

Tyler Sullivan said C.J. Stroud is primed for a noticeable Year-3 bounce back. Sullivan blamed the sophomore dip on Stroud eating 52 sacks (14 more than his rookie season), playing through an eight-sack playoff loss at Kansas City, and constantly seeing “ghosts” because Nico Collins, Tank Dell and others were in and out of the lineup. Houston fired OC Bobby Slowik and replaced him with Nick Caley, whose background under Bill Belichick and alongside Sean McVay signals a more QB-friendly system. Up front, Laremy Tunsil is gone, but the Texans added Cam Robinson in free agency and spent a Day-2 pick on Arontae Ursery to stabilize protection. Sullivan expects cleaner pockets and healthier receivers to push Stroud back toward the 8.2 YPA and league-low INT rate he flashed as a rookie—making him a clear buy in season-long formats.

At 300-1, Brian Campbell earned McDonald’s 'Sleeper' tag. Despite ranking among the shortest hitters on Tour, Campbell made the cut at both 2025 majors (Masters and PGA) thanks to a scorching run with his irons. The Mexico Open winner has gained strokes on approach in five straight starts and his putter is heating up as well. McDonald pointed out that Colonial rewards precision over power; therefore Campbell’s lack of distance is less penal, making him a viable longshot to threaten the leaderboard or hit top-20 props.

McDonald listed Daniel Berger as a live outright at 25-1, labeling him a clear 'Contender.' Berger won this event in 2020 and returns with elite recent ball-striking metrics—he has been, in McDonald’s words, 'striking the cover off the golf ball for months.' The only blemish has been inconsistent putting, but Colonial’s relatively tame greens give him a realistic path to spike with the flat stick. The analyst noted that multiple predictive data points (strokes-gained approach trend, top-20 rate) signal an impending victory and believes a comfort level on the layout where he already owns a trophy could be the tipping point.

Patrick McDonald said Scottie Scheffler is worth backing at 5/2 to win Colonial. Scheffler has ripped off back-to-back five-shot victories (CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship), joining Tiger Woods as the only player since 1985 to post consecutive wins by 5+ strokes. He has finished T2, T3 and 2nd in his last three starts at Colonial, so course fit is proven. McDonald emphasized the world No. 1’s ability to mentally reset the week after a major—he also won the 2024 RBC Heritage seven days after the Masters—which makes a post-PGA let-down unlikely. Sweeping both Dallas-Fort Worth events is a publicly stated goal, and Colonial’s precision layout accentuates the tee-to-green dominance that currently leads the PGA Tour. All arrows point to another win on home turf.

Owen OBrien pegged Ryan Gerard as a value dart at 70-1 and +5500 to lead after Round 1. The 25-year-old just posted a T8 in his PGA Championship debut, opening with a 5-under 66 and shooting 72 or better in every round. Gerard has flashed in Texas already this spring—runner-up at the Valero Texas Open and 9th at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He ranks 14th in total strokes gained and 8th in birdie average, metrics OBrien believes translate well to a Colonial layout missing several top names. With confidence high and proven Lone Star success, the model sees significant value in backing Gerard.

Owen OBrien recommended J.J. Spaun at 50-1 and +400 for a top-10. Spaun owns two runner-up finishes this season, including a playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at THE PLAYERS where he opened 66-68. He sits 13th in the FedExCup and ranks 16th on Tour in total strokes gained, powered by 4th in SG: approach and 6th in total driving (above-average distance and accuracy). OBrien argues that without McIlroy in the field Spaun’s ceiling is higher, and if he replicates the hot start he showed at TPC Sawgrass only Scottie Scheffler may catch him.

Owen OBrien highlighted Aaron Rai as a 45-1 outright bet after SportsLine’s model spit him out as a value play. OBrien noted that Rai is the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour this season, a key trait at tight Colonial CC. That precision has helped him post the sixth-best Par-4 scoring average on Tour. Form is trending: T19 at the PGA Championship (4-under 67 in Round 1) marked his third straight top-25, and he finished T12 in this event last year. With five top-4 finishes since the start of 2023, OBrien believes Rai’s combination of current form, course history, and a Scheffler-inflated betting board makes him a live longshot.

Daniel Kohn reported that the SportsLine Projection Model projects 9.1 combined runs for Wednesday’s Reds-Pirates matinee and is therefore "leaning Over" the listed 8-run total at DraftKings. The model is riding a 13-8 (62%) streak on top-rated MLB money-line plays this season, giving bettors reason to trust its totals call. Offensively, Cincinnati rolls in having won five of its last six games and owning four multi-run outputs during that span; Gavin Lux is batting .294 with 13 doubles and has logged multi-hit efforts in four of his past six contests. On the mound, Reds right-hander Brady Singer owns a 5.01 ERA despite limiting opponents to three or fewer earned in seven of nine starts—an indicator of volatility that can fuel run scoring. Pirates southpaw Andrew Heaney brings a solid 3.02 ERA but has issued 19 walks in 50.2 innings, creating extra base-runner risk. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has been taxed after three straight games decided by four runs or fewer. Layering those factors with Cincinnati’s 6-2 head-to-head mark against Pittsburgh this year, the model’s simulated median score crosses the current total, making the Over an actionable wager.

Tyler Sullivan warned bettors to stay away from Aidan Hutchinson at +300 to win Comeback Player of the Year. Sullivan reminded listeners that a defensive player has not won this award under normal circumstances since Eric Berry’s 2015 post-cancer season, and the only recent exception was Damar Hamlin’s life-threatening incident in 2023. He pointed out that Hutchinson’s seven-and-a-half sacks in just five games before last year’s leg injury show his upside, but Detroit still has no proven edge rusher opposite him. Because the Lions need Hutchinson fresh for a December–January playoff push, Sullivan expects the team to manage his snaps early, limiting the splash games voters crave. Combine the offensive/quarterback bias of the award with a likely pitch-count start, and Sullivan believes Hutchinson’s short futures price is a poor value play and an avoid in award-prop markets.

Tyler Sullivan called Rashee Rice his favorite Comeback Player of the Year bet at 10-to-1. Even with Kansas City able to ease Rice in behind Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Travis Kelce, Sullivan stressed that Rice already earned Patrick Mahomes’ trust as a rookie. In his three full games last season, Rice topped 100 yards twice; extrapolated over 17 games that pace equals 136 receptions, 1,600 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Sullivan believes a late-season surge is likely once Rice is fully healthy, turning the Chiefs back into a top-flight passing attack for both bettors holding award tickets and fantasy managers seeking second-half league-winning upside.

Tyler Sullivan expressed "lowercase concern" about betting Christian McCaffrey at +370 (third-shortest) for Comeback Player of the Year. Entering his age-29 season, McCaffrey led the NFL in touches during his last fully healthy campaign (2023) and subsequently dealt with Achilles and PCL injuries—mirroring the post-2019 drop-off he experienced in Carolina after a 403-touch year. Sullivan added that San Francisco’s offseason talent exodus, headlined by Debo Samuel, could funnel even more gadget and backfield touches to McCaffrey, compounding injury risk. High volume, advancing age, and a lengthy injury log make CMC a shaky futures bet and a fragile first-round pick in early fantasy drafts.

Tyler Sullivan endorsed betting Trevor Lawrence at +430 (fourth-shortest) to win Comeback Player of the Year, noting the quarterback has a clearer runway than Dak Prescott. Sullivan highlighted a fresh offensive scheme under first-year head coach Liam Cohen—known for pass-heavy concepts with the Rams and Buccaneers—and an upgraded receiver room featuring first-rounder Travis Hunter opposite Brian Thomas Jr. Lawrence’s issue has been volatility: before last year’s injury he completed just 52% of his passes in September, then 70% in October. Sullivan expects Cohen to iron out those wild swings and make Lawrence more consistent. With elite weapons, a favorable AFC South schedule, and the inherent award bias toward quarterbacks, Sullivan considers Lawrence both a strong futures wager and a buy-low target in best-ball and season-long formats.

Tyler Sullivan advised fading Dak Prescott in the Comeback Player of the Year market and tempering fantasy expectations. Sullivan pointed out that Prescott was under .500 as a starter in 2024 and threw multiple interceptions in four separate games even before the injury. Now the 31-year-old returns to an NFC East that features Jalen Hurts and rookie sensation Jayden Daniels—both quarterbacks from 2024 NFC Championship teams—making the divisional path brutal. Dallas has invested in pass protection (two offensive-line picks) and traded for George Pickens to join CeeDee Lamb, but Sullivan questions a rushing attack led by free-agent flyers Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders plus a Day-3 rookie. With the Cowboys paying Prescott over $60 million per season, eight prime-time games, and realistically needing the NFC East to send three teams to the playoffs, Sullivan believes the pressure and surrounding circumstances make Prescott a poor value at short comeback-award odds and a risky season-long fantasy bet.

Ryan Wooden recommended Trevor Larnach to homer at +550 (BetMGM) versus Baltimore. Larnach has raised his average from .225 to .250 over five games with three homers in his last six. All seven bombs this season have come off right-handers, and he faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a .234 average against lefties and has surrendered five HR to them. The model set Larnach’s fair line at +500, so bettors are getting 50 points of value on a hitter seeing the ball extremely well.

Rand Carthon warned bettors to fade the Giants’ 5.5-win total. He emphasized New York opens with four straight quarterback mismatches—none of which favor Daniel Jones—before traveling to the Saints in Week 5. Carthon called the slate a "gauntlet," noting the Giants face one of the league’s top-three strength-of-schedule indexes and will be underdogs in nearly every game through mid-October. Combined with lingering doubts about Jones’ health and the absence of any proven offensive playmakers, Carthon expects New York to start 0-4 and sees only two plausible QB-advantage spots (Saints, Vikings). He advised taking the under and looking at ‘worst regular-season record’ long-shot props.

Ran Carthon touted the 49ers as a futures slam-dunk thanks to an extremely forgiving 2025 slate—only three opponents were playoff teams last year. He expects a fully healthy core of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey to elevate Brock Purdy, while new DC Robert Saleh and DL coach Kris Kocurek rebuild a ferocious front. Carthon predicted San Francisco finishes top-five in both sacks and tackles for loss, making their DST a priority target in best-ball formats and a weekly DFS juggernaut whenever priced below the top tier. He recommended grabbing NFC championship futures now before the market bakes in their schedule advantage.

Ran Carthon doubled down on his earlier Niners love, this time drilling into the pass-rush upside. He said a fully healthy core on offense lets Kyle Shanahan play from ahead, which in turn gives new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and long-time DL whisperer Chris Kocurek the green light to attack. Carthon highlighted that the unit is "younger and fresher" up front than it has been in years, and predicted San Francisco will finish inside the league’s top five in both sacks and tackles for loss. He encouraged bettors to look at team sack-leader props and urged best-ball drafters to treat the 49ers DST as a priority target rather than waiting for a later tier.

Bryant McFadden said the Patriots are a live bet to smash their season-win total and return to the playoffs. He pointed out that Mike Vrabel immediately gives New England, “at worst, the second-best coach in the AFC East,” and argued their free-agency and draft haul leaves them with the division’s second-deepest roster behind Buffalo. McFadden circled the first three games—Raiders at home, Dolphins on the road, Steelers at home—as winnable spots that can jump-start confidence for second-year QB Drake May. Because the 2025 slate contains only three 2024 playoff opponents and front-loads soft defenses, McFadden believes bettors should take New England to clear any 7.5- or 8-win totals and sprinkle on a playoff berth futures ticket.

Silverstein’s surprise call is Koepka missing the cut. The three-time PGA winner already missed the Masters cut and, despite strong LIV results historically, is winless in 2025 with only one top-five. The analyst believes his current ball-striking dip makes surviving to the weekend unlikely.

Silverstein argued Niemann, ninth on the odds board, is a poor value. Across 23 major starts the Chilean has seven missed cuts and just one top-20. With no signature PGA Tour or major victories on his resume, the tout prefers fading Niemann in all outright and matchup markets.

Silverstein dubbed Scheffler the lock for placement bets, noting he has finished inside the top-10 in 13 of his last 16 majors (81.3%). While Bryson DeChambeau is tempting, Scheffler’s ceiling and week-to-week stability make him the preferred top-10 and top-5 ticket.

Silverstein lists Spieth as a 50-1 sleeper. Despite only two wins in eight years, Spieth has already logged three top-10s and three additional top-20s this season. The analyst believes Spieth could build on McIlroy’s grand-slam breakthrough and finally claim the Wanamaker, making him an intriguing each-way or top-10 play.

Silverstein backed McIlroy at 5-1 to win. Rory has dominated Quail Hollow throughout his career and now plays “the best golf he’s produced in a decade,” fresh off completing the grand slam at Augusta and a strong tune-up at the Truist Championship. With rain lengthening the course, his power advantage looms even larger.

Power has three top-20s and zero missed cuts at Quail Hollow, ranking sixth in average finish (25.6) among players with 3+ starts since 2017. Kalland’s favorite bets are Power to make the cut (-140) and finish top-20 at +550, calling the Irishman a perfect course-fit value.

Kalland cannot justify Aberg’s spot as eighth favorite. Since collapsing late at the Masters he has finished T54 and T60 in two no-cut signature events, his worst stretch of the season. With poor current form and limited Quail Hollow experience, Kalland recommends fading Aberg in outrights and matchups.

Kalland nominated Homa at 160-1 as a dart throw. Homa owns a win plus two T8 finishes in his last four Quail Hollow starts. Although he has been "in the wilderness" for more than a year, recent flashes of form and great course memories lead Kalland to sprinkle him in outright and each-way markets.

Kalland picked Thomas outright at 22-1, citing his 2017 PGA victory at Quail Hollow and the fact he is "playing the most consistently great golf of just about anyone" right now. The combination of proven course success and current form makes JT his favorite betting ticket despite a loaded field.

In a Thomas-Rahm-Spieth head-to-head, McDonald advised backing Rahm. The Spaniard has “the driver on a string” and has quietly logged back-to-back top-15s in majors. Given Thomas’s driving woes and Spieth’s volatility, Rahm is projected to finish highest of the trio and is a playable matchup or group bet.

McDonald labeled Thomas the big name most likely to disappoint. He noted JT is enduring the worst driving season of his career, a recipe for disaster at trouble-laden Quail Hollow. Over his last 11 majors Thomas owns five missed cuts and five finishes outside the top-30, reinforcing the fade despite his 2017 win here.

McDonald called McIlroy the "free square" for placement markets. Rory has won four times at Quail Hollow, arrives with elite form and no longer carries the mental burden after completing the career grand slam at Augusta. His huge carry distance is even more valuable after early-week rains lengthened the course, making a top-10 finish the analyst’s safest wager.

McDonald highlighted Reed at 90-1 as his favorite sleeper. Reed finished runner-up when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow (2017), has four top-10s in his past five worldwide starts, and pairs his trademark short-game with vastly improved ball-striking in 2025. The Masters champion returns "as complete a player as ever," giving him real win equity at long odds.

Patrick McDonald said Schauffele is mispriced at 22-1 because Bryson DeChambeau’s surge has pushed his number longer. Schauffele "found something with his driver" last weekend in Philadelphia, owns back-to-back runner-up finishes at Quail Hollow, and is in elite major form with 12 straight top-20s, five straight top-10s, and two victories including last year’s PGA. McDonald believes those course and recent-form indicators make Xander the best outright bet on the board.

Robby Kalland recommended Justin Thomas at +2200 to lift the Wanamaker Trophy, pointing to his comfort level and past success on this specific track. Kalland reminded readers that the last time the PGA Championship visited Quail Hollow, Thomas won the event, and he views Thomas as 'playing the most consistently great golf of just about anyone in the world right now.' That recent form, paired with proven ability to handle the demanding closing stretch known as the Green Mile, convinced Kalland that Thomas offers strong betting value at 22-1 odds.

Patrick McDonald endorsed Xander Schauffele as his outright winner at +2200 for this week's PGA Championship. McDonald said the market has discounted Schauffele because recent steam on Bryson DeChambeau pushed other names down the board. He noted Schauffele 'found something with his driver' last weekend in Philadelphia, which fixed the club that had been holding him back. The driver tune-up matters even more at Quail Hollow, where Schauffele has finished runner-up in each of the last two PGA Tour stops. McDonald believes that combination of rediscovered tee-ball confidence and elite course history makes Schauffele mispriced, calling him a must-bet at 22-1.

The SportsLine model underscores Scottie Scheffler’s consistency as the main reason to back him at +450 despite the short number. Scheffler has finished T25 or better in every 2025 start, highlighted by 4th at the Masters, T3 at the Genesis Invitational, T2 at the Houston Open and a breakthrough victory at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson that ended an eight-month win drought. He’s been a PGA Championship specialist, landing T8 or better in four of his last five appearances, and his profile of elite tee-to-green play travels regardless of weather. While he’s still chasing his first major outside Augusta, the simulation assigns him the highest top-10 probability in the field and labels him a core DFS cash-game piece and a viable outright despite the low odds.

McClure’s SportsLine model projects Rory McIlroy as a top-tier contender based on unmatched course history at Quail Hollow. McIlroy owns four PGA Tour victories here (2010, 2015, 2021, 2024) and three of those came by four shots or more. Fresh off completing the career Grand Slam at the 2025 Masters, he rolls in with confidence, now a 29-time Tour winner. While his 2017 PGA visit to this track produced a modest T-22 and he’s logged only three top-10s in his last ten PGA Championships, the model expects the softer, rain-soaked conditions to accentuate his high-ball flight and wedge precision. At +480, the simulation views him as a justifiable outright or each-way play and a priority anchor in DFS builds thanks to his proven ceiling on this specific layout.

DFS pro Mike McClure’s SportsLine simulation run 10,000 times barely places Xander Schauffele inside the top-10 despite his status as the defending PGA Champion. The model flags several red flags: a rib injury cost the 31-year-old two months early in 2025, leaving him with just one top-10 all season. His ball-striking has cratered—Schauffele ranks 158th in driving accuracy (54.17%) and 162nd in strokes gained off-the-tee (-0.439). The short game is no better, sitting outside the top-150 in scoring average (71.04), scrambling (55.8%) and one-putt percentage (38.19%). At a demanding Quail Hollow layout where finding fairways is critical, the model believes those weaknesses outweigh his back-to-back major wins in 2024 and prices the 19-1 outright number as an overpay. Bettors are advised to fade him in outrights and limit DFS exposure.

The SportsLine simulation still shows value on Justin Thomas at 22-1 (25-1 at Caesars) despite him climbing back to No. 5 in the OWGR. The model emphasized Thomas’ Quail Hollow comfort—he won the 2017 PGA here and has never finished worse than T26 in six career starts at the venue. Recent form is finally matching the course history: a win at the RBC Heritage snapped a lengthy drought and was sandwiched by two runner-up finishes, the latest coming last week at the Truist Championship. With confidence surging and a two-time PGA champ narrative in play, McClure advises keeping Thomas on outright cards before the number shortens.

McClure’s model pushed Tyrrell Hatton onto the betting card at +5000, pointing to his sneaky-good PGA Championship history—five top-25s and two top-10s in 10 tries, with an average finish of 25th over the last seven editions. Hatton has missed just one cut in his past 13 majors and logged a T14 at Augusta in April, undone only by a sloppy Saturday 75. Add in two DP World Tour victories since October, including January’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and a 13-win global resume, and the model sees clear win equity at this number. Bettors looking for a proven, battle-tested longshot should give Hatton serious consideration.