Steve Palazzolo also leaned under 9.5 wins for Green Bay, admitting he is "falling into the trap" of favoring divisional rivals that spent more aggressively this offseason. Palazzolo highlighted multiple soft spots that make double-digit victories unlikely: no reliable pass-rusher opposite Gary, Kenny Clark's recent injury history, Devonte Wyatt's inconsistency, and two outside corners being forced to play out of position in a heavy-zone system. He added that Matt LaFleur's coaching can only mask so many holes and that unless Jordan Love proves "special" again, nine wins is probably the ceiling—making the under the sharper side of the FanDuel wager.

Sam Monson recommended taking the Packers under 9.5 wins at FanDuel. He argued the roster is weaker than every other NFC North squad: the defensive line is still "Rashan Gary and a bunch of question marks," outside corners Nate Hobbs and Keisean Nixon are better in the slot, and there is no proven pass-rush help opposite Gary. While Monson believes Jordan Love's late-season surge in 2024 was real, he contends betting markets are already pricing in that near-ceiling outcome. With the Lions entrenched and the Bears and Vikings adding talent aggressively, Monson sees more realistic paths to eight wins than to ten.

Steve Palazzolo noted that Green Bay pivoted to a more downhill rushing approach last season and believes the free-agent addition of Josh Jacobs, who replaces Aaron Jones, locks that identity in for 2025. Jacobs’ power-back profile dovetails with Matt LaFleur’s desire for "multiple ways to win," setting him up for early-down and goal-line volume. Palazzolo framed the move as a "nice pickup," signaling Jacobs should see the kind of workload that keeps him firmly in the RB2 mix for season-long leagues while giving the Packers a second offensive path if Jordan Love is inconsistent.

Sam Monson labeled first-round pick Matthew Golden the "fascinating" X-factor in Green Bay’s receiver room. Golden’s blazing 40-time vaulted him up boards and gives him the raw athletic profile to become the Packers’ elusive true No. 1 target, which would instantly transform the passing attack. Monson cautioned, however, that Golden has only a "really, really small" collegiate sample of actually being that top option, making him a classic high-ceiling, high-variance late-round play that is better suited to best-ball formats than redraft lineups right away.

Sam Monson called Christian Watson "incredibly unreliable" and argued that every Packers wideout—Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks included—has flashed but never sustained production. Injuries and week-to-week inconsistency have kept Watson from locking down even a puzzle-piece role, much less true No. 1 status. Monson said this volatility forces fantasy managers to treat Watson strictly as a boom-bust option rather than a dependable weekly starter until the receiving corps shows real consistency.

Steve Palazzolo said the entire Packers season rides on whether Jordan Love can recreate the 35-to-40 big-time-throw form he flashed during the second half of 2023. Love produced 37 big-time throws that year (including playoffs) but only 17 last season while battling injuries. Palazzolo believes that if Love stays healthy and regains that off-platform, third-and-long play-making rhythm—highlighted by his playoff performance against Dallas—Green Bay can overcome what he views as merely the third- or fourth-best roster in the NFC North and finish atop the division. If Love merely repeats last year’s "pretty good" production, the Packers could sink to the bottom of the North. Fantasy drafters and bettors should calibrate their Packers exposure to their confidence in Love hitting that ceiling.

Steve Palazzolo echoed the over on Detroit’s 10.5 wins, saying he’s “a big fan of what they’ve done in Detroit.” Palazzolo highlighted the low-cost addition of Carlton Davis, the anticipated step forward from first-round corner Terrion Arnold, and the roster’s proven ability to survive injuries because Holmes has stocked backups who could start elsewhere. He cited Jack Campbell’s improved play last season, Alex Anzalone’s steady veteran presence, and the Joseph–Branch safety tandem as reasons the defense will keep games on script. Palazzolo believes Dan Campbell’s willingness to out-pace the analytics on fourth down creates extra possessions for a roster that is usually the more talented side, forecasting an 11–13 win season and a comfortable cash on the FanDuel over.

Sam Monson said to smash the FanDuel over on Detroit’s 10.5-win total. He thinks any downside shows up in the postseason, not over 17 regular-season games. Monson pointed to the influx of secondary talent—Carlton Davis for only a third-round pick, D.J. Reed in free agency, plus Terrion Arnold’s expected leap—and called Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch the best safety duo in football. Up front, Jack Campbell “looked much better last season in year two” next to steady veteran Alex Anzalone, evidence that Brad Holmes has built genuine depth at every level after injuries stress-tested the roster in 2024. Combine that with Dan Campbell’s hyper-aggressive fourth-down mindset, which Monson believes tilts win equity toward the better team over a large sample, and he projects Detroit to clear 11 victories with room to spare.

Steve Palazzolo believes Detroit’s defense is still ‘dynamic and good’ enough to be a weekly top-10 fantasy DST despite Aaron Glenn’s departure. He cited multiple depth-chart upgrades: Aiden Hutchinson was on a Defensive Player of the Year trajectory before injury and reportedly looks 100 percent in camp; Detroit traded for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to give Hutchinson a legitimate running mate; the interior rotation now includes Alim McNeill, run-stuffer DJ Reader, and first-round rookie Tyreek Williams, keeping the pass-rush fresh. On the back end, Palazzolo called the DJ Reed signing ‘shrewd’ and expects second-year corner Terry Arnold to improve opposite him, while labeling Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch the league’s best safety duo. With a reinforced pass rush and an upgraded secondary, Palazzolo projects more takeaways and steady sack production, making the Lions a strong season-long DST target and a high-upside DFS play against offenses with shaky lines.

Sam Monson said the Lions offense is likely to take a noticeable step backward in 2025 after losing play-caller Ben Johnson to Chicago. Monson emphasized that Johnson was the schematic engine behind Detroit’s league-best creativity: the endless trick-play rollodex, the gutsy third-and-6 inside-zone calls to Jameer Gibbs, and the route combinations that consistently sprung Amon-Ra St. Brown wide-open. The internal promotion meant to replace Johnson is, in Monson’s words, ‘further down the pecking order for a reason,’ creating real doubt that the same X-and-O magic will carry over. He added that Frank Ragnow’s surprise retirement leaves only three offensive-line spots he fully trusts, tightening the unit’s margin for error. Fantasy and betting takeaway: temper projections on Jared Goff and Detroit pass-catchers, and be cautious with early-season game-total overs until the new coordinator proves he can replicate Johnson’s efficiency and situational aggressiveness.

Steve Palazzolo highlighted Tyrique Stevenson as the glaring vulnerability in an otherwise solid Bears secondary. Chicago’s 2024 collapse began with Stevenson’s blown Hail Mary versus Washington, and Palazzolo said camp reports have him merely "OK" despite no competition behind him. Expect opposing coordinators to isolate Stevenson while avoiding Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon. Palazzolo recommended stacking WR1s lining up on Chicago’s left side in DFS and betting overs on their reception props until the Bears add cornerback help or Stevenson takes a significant leap.

Sam Monson cautioned that Grady Jarrett’s name value no longer matches his on-field impact. Chicago handed the veteran defensive tackle a sizable deal, but Monson noted Jarrett’s tape shows clear age-related decline and a loss of interior burst. If Jarrett cannot reclaim pre-injury form, the Bears will still lack "hold-the-point" bodies next to Andrew Billings, leaving linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards exposed. Monson advised DFS players to keep targeting between-the-tackles runners versus Chicago and warned IDP managers that Jarrett is a trap at his current draft cost.

Steve Palazzolo said Montez Sweat is a prime bounce-back candidate after playing through an ankle injury that suppressed his 2024 production. Now healthy and joined by newcomers Grady Jarrett and Dio Odeyingbo, Sweat should see fewer double-teams and more obvious passing downs. Palazzolo projected Chicago’s best pass rush of the Ryan Poles era and pegged Sweat for double-digit sacks, recommending him as a buy in IDP formats and touting the Bears DST as a sneaky early-season DFS play against shaky offensive lines.

Sam Monson advised betting the Bears UNDER 8.5 wins at FanDuel. He acknowledged Chicago’s roster is clearly stronger—Ben Johnson upgrades the offense, the pass-rush looks deeper, and Caleb Williams will be better protected—yet argued the NFC North gauntlet caps their ceiling. Detroit is a legitimate Super Bowl contender and both Green Bay and Minnesota remain playoff threats, meaning Chicago could improve noticeably and still finish fourth in the division. Monson pointed to lingering soft spots (interior run defense, cornerback two) and the inevitable growing pains of a rookie head coach/QB pairing as further reasons the Bears may stall out around 7-8 victories.

Steve Palazzolo recommended betting Chicago’s season win total over 8.5, citing a roster overhaul that attacks last year’s weaknesses. He emphasized that Johnson and Poles spent premium capital on the trenches—signing All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and pushing incumbent left tackle Braxton Jones with added competition—aiming for a top-10 offensive line instead of 2024’s 25th-graded unit. Pair that protection with a deep skill group (Roma Duneze, Burden, Colston Loveland, dual-TE sets with Cole Kmet) and Johnson’s quarterback-friendly play calling, and Palazzolo projects the Bears offense to finish top-12 in EPA per play. With defensive line investments also coming, he believes the upgrade at head coach combined with a third-place schedule gives Chicago a realistic 9-10 win path.

Steve Palazzolo highlighted Luther Burden as a late-round upside swing, especially in best-ball formats. Palazzolo noted that Ben Johnson leans on motion, misdirection, and weekly trick plays that routinely sprung Detroit speedsters for chunk gains. Burden’s ‘absurdly dynamic’ after-catch ability makes him the obvious candidate for those manufactured touches, and training-camp reports already have him getting first-team reps. While some scouts question his route polish and point to Kadarius Toney-like volatility, Palazzolo believes Johnson will scheme Burden 4-6 designed touches per game—jet sweeps, pop passes, orbit motions—that can flip a DFS slate. He compared the setup to Johnson’s use of Kalif Raymond and Jameson Williams in Detroit and advised fantasy managers to stash Burden before the preseason highlight reel drives up cost.

Sam Monson said Caleb Williams is primed for a year-two breakout and should be drafted aggressively in fantasy formats. Monson pointed to the arrival of head coach Ben Johnson, who turned Jared Goff into a top-10 passer by layering shot plays and easy buttons into the offense. Johnson and GM Ryan Poles immediately upgraded the roster: veteran guard Joe Thuney joins a line Monson believes can leap from bottom-half to top-10, while Roma Duneze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland give Williams a deeper, faster receiving corps after Keenan Allen’s departure. Monson argued that better protection plus a more quarterback-friendly scheme will reduce Williams’ 19 turnover-worthy plays and league-high sack rate, unlocking the scramble-and-throw skillset that produced five big-time throws against Minnesota last season. He expects Chicago to clear its 8.5 win total and projects Williams to flirt with top-8 fantasy QB numbers thanks to improved efficiency and designed rollouts.

Sam Monson leaned the opposite direction on FanDuel’s 8.5-win total, saying this feels like the year Mike Tomlin’s "magic runs out." Monson is skeptical of a young, high-variance offensive line—Broderick Jones "looks like a problem" and one guard spot is wide open—and doubts the pass-catcher group if George Pickens is dealt. He questioned Aaron Rodgers’ willingness to become a low-volume game manager in Arthur Smith’s scheme and flagged the combustible mix of Rodgers, Tomlin, DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey as a blow-up risk if the team starts 2-5. With that wide range of outcomes, Monson believes 7-10 is more likely than 9-8 and advised betting the under.

Steve Palazzolo took the FanDuel over 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh, calling them "still a nine-win team." He doubled down on his earlier defensive praise—an absurd pass-rush rotation plus the Ramsey/Slay additions—and argued that unit alone will keep scores low and steal games. Offensively he expects Arthur Smith to lean on the ground game, mitigating the risk of a volatile Aaron Rodgers/O-line combo. Palazzolo acknowledged the personalities could combust but believes Mike Tomlin’s track record of squeezing winning records from flawed rosters continues, making 9-8 the realistic floor and giving bettors a full win of cushion on the posted total.

Sam Monson warned that DK Metcalf’s fantasy ceiling could crater if Pittsburgh follows through on trading George Pickens. Monson noted Metcalf has "always had a running mate"—Tyler Lockett early, then Jaxon Smith-Njigba—freeing him to stick to posts, slants and go routes. Without Pickens, Metcalf becomes the unquestioned WR1 but also a one-dimensional focal point for defenses in an offense that may already skew run-heavy under Arthur Smith. Add a questionable offensive line and a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers who will likely check out of those runs he dislikes, and Monson sees a target-volume squeeze with lower efficiency. He advised treating Metcalf as a volatile WR3 rather than the back-end WR1 his name value commands in drafts.

Steve Palazzolo said rookie running back Caleb Johnson is the sneaky fantasy winner of Pittsburgh’s off-season. Palazzolo expects Arthur Smith to revive the old Tennessee blueprint—outside-zone on early downs, play-action off it, and only 25ish pass attempts from Aaron Rodgers. Johnson was one of Palazzolo’s highest-graded zone runners in college and lands behind a line he believes will be "pretty good" at run blocking even if the pass protection lags. With questions about the receiver room and a defense he already projected as elite, Palazzolo anticipates a ball-control script that can feed Johnson 18-22 touches most weeks, giving him low-end RB2 value in best-ball and season-long leagues at a current double-digit ADP.

Sam Monson argued that Aaron Rodgers remains physically capable of a rebound fantasy season—his arm talent is "legit," his post-Achilles mobility grades out average rather than detrimental—so the real hinge point is whether he lets new play-caller Arthur Smith run the show. Monson traced Rodgers’ career arc: the back-to-back MVP spike under Matt LaFleur came only after LaFleur "won the internal argument" over scheme, while Rodgers’ self-directed seasons with Nathaniel Hackett crashed. If Rodgers surrenders to Smith’s heavy play-action, easy-button concepts (the same staples that maximized Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee), Monson thinks a top-10 QB finish and efficient DFS value are back on the table even with a thin WR corps behind DK Metcalf. If he freelances, the floor resembles last year’s disappointment. Actionable takeaway: draft Rodgers as a discounted upside QB2, monitor camp reports on his rapport with Smith, and be ready to deploy him in favorable early-season DFS matchups if noise out of Pittsburgh suggests he’s buying in.

Steve Palazzolo said the Steelers defense has a legitimate shot to be the single best unit in the league, making them a priority DST target in season-long drafts, showdown DFS slates and futures markets. He pointed to an unusually deep, high-end pass-rush rotation—T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Alex Highsmith, first-round rookie Derek Harmon, plus Nick Herbig, Keanu Benton and possibly Jack Sawyer—capable of keeping fresh heat on quarterbacks for four quarters. On the back end they flipped Minkah Fitzpatrick for Jalen Ramsey, then added Darius Slay to pair with Joey Porter Jr., giving new coordinator Teryl Austin the freedom to run far more man coverage and tailor matchups to division rivals such as Cincinnati and Baltimore (they held Lamar Jackson to his worst 2023 outing with lesser personnel). Palazzolo acknowledged age/injury risk with Watt, Hayward, Ramsey and Slay, but said if even 75% of those names stay healthy Pittsburgh profiles as the rare defense that can single-handedly swing game scripts, lower totals and carry an average offense—exactly the kind of ceiling bettors and fantasy gamers chase.

Steve Palazzolo suggested sneaking Browns rookie passers into the last round of best-ball drafts or onto dynasty taxi squads. He highlighted two upside options: Dillon Gabriel, who logged over 50 collegiate starts—a profile suddenly coveted in the NFL—and Shedeur Sanders, widely viewed as QB2 in the 2025 class. With Deshaun Watson’s contract finally movable next offseason and morale damage already erased, Palazzolo said Cleveland could turn to a rookie if Joe Flacco sputters early. That scenario offers cheap exposure to a starting quarterback ceiling that drafters are mostly ignoring.

Sam Monson recommended betting the FanDuel under 5.5 wins for Cleveland. He does not trust any quarterback in the four-man room—calling Joe Flacco "fool’s gold," dismissing Kenny Pickett as a non-factor, and labeling the rookies developmental. Monson added that three of five starting linemen are headed for free agency, so Andrew Berry could flip veterans along the offensive line and in the secondary for draft capital by mid-season, leaving Cleveland short on talent for the stretch run. That potential "baseball-style" sell-off, paired with the AFC North gauntlet of the Ravens, Bengals, and one year of Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, makes six wins an uphill climb in 2025.

Steve Palazzolo said the Browns DST is an undervalued fantasy play because the defensive line is built to bully again. After slipping last season, Cleveland brings back Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson while adding young disruptors Isaiah McGuire, first-rounder Mason Graham, and 2024 second-round pick Michael Hall to flank Myles Garrett. Palazzolo noted that same quartet ranked among the league's best four-man rushes in 2023 before injuries struck. If the secondary of Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, and Martin Emerson lands on the high side of its volatile range, he sees a top-five unit in sacks and takeaways. He advised grabbing the Browns DST late in season-long drafts and targeting them as an inexpensive Week-1 DFS pivot in tournaments that reward defensive scoring upside.

Sam Monson dismissed the idea that Joe Flacco can salvage Cleveland’s offense, calling him "fool’s gold" at this stage of his career. Monson expects the Browns to field one of the league’s worst offenses despite occasional big-yardage games from Flacco, arguing those spikes merely highlight how dreadful Deshaun Watson was. He pointed to a four-man quarterback room "nobody trusts," a front office already gearing its assets toward the 2026 draft, and lingering morale issues from the Watson fiasco. Because the organization is effectively punting on 2025 and lacks a reliable signal-caller, Monson advised fading all Browns skill players in season-long leagues and avoiding Flacco stacks in DFS unless you’re chasing low-probability tournament volatility.

Steve Palazzolo said Joe Flacco is his clear pick to start Week 1 for Cleveland and could keep the job long enough to matter in fantasy. He pointed to Flacco’s surprisingly solid 2023 stint with the Colts, the return of four veteran linemen who have each posted multiple top-10 PFF seasons (Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin), and a "sneaky good" receiver trio of Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and Deontay Johnson. Palazzolo argued that the line’s down 2024 was an outlier and expects a bounce-back that will give Flacco time to push the ball vertically. With Deshaun Watson’s drag on the locker room gone, he believes the Browns can "stumble into wins," making Flacco a cheap QB2 or late-round best-ball stack with Jeudy or Johnson.

Sam Monson maintained that fantasy managers should not fade Mike Evans simply because he’s turning 31. Evans owns a career 15-plus yards-per-reception average and recently passed 100 touchdowns, production Monson credited to “being big and strong and fast” rather than pure long speed. That skill set, he said, will let Evans stay Tampa’s primary vertical and red-zone weapon even after losing a step, similar to how Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall aged. Monson sees Evans’ spike-week profile intact, making him a value at current ADP in Season-Long leagues and an ideal ceiling play for Best-Ball builds.

Sam Monson warned drafters that Tampa Bay’s receiver corps carries far more downside than people acknowledge. He pointed to Chris Godwin coming off another significant knee injury at an age when recoveries slow, Mike Evans entering the decline phase where explosion can vanish quickly, and first-round pick Emeka Abuka projecting as merely “solid” rather than a ceiling-changing talent. Monson added that Trey Palmer is a one-trick 4.3-speed deep threat with drop issues and that seventh-rounder Taz Johnson’s size limits his floor. Because the unit’s range of outcomes is wider than other elite groups, Monson advised avoiding early-round exposure in Season-Long drafts and being underweight in Best-Ball tournaments.

Sam Monson endorsed betting the Bengals to clear FanDuel’s 9.5-win total, yet added a hedge that keepers and bettors alike should temper expectations for the offense. He cited three tailwinds—Al Golden’s fresh defensive scheme, healthier cornerback room, and natural improvement from a veteran offensive line running it back—arguing those edges should flip several of last year’s one-score losses. However, Monson warned that even a "slight downtick" from Joe Burrow and the Chase-Higgins duo could cancel out those gains through simple variance. In his view, the over is still the right side, but portfolio managers should avoid parlaying it with overs on Burrow’s MVP odds or pushing team totals too aggressively until the offense proves it can replicate 2024 efficiency.

Sam Monson flagged Amarius Mims as the swing piece that could make or break Cincinnati’s 2025 offensive line. Monson reminded listeners that the former Georgia tackle logged very few college snaps and is already stacking lower-body injuries in the pros, calling that a "pretty scary profile for a guy they need right away." Because the Bengals filled the rest of the line with mid-tier veterans instead of blue-chip talent, Monson believes pass-protection quality will hinge on whether Mims stays healthy and develops quickly. If he busts or misses time, Monson expects the unit to resemble last year’s bottom-ten group in pressure rate, forcing Joe Burrow back into scramble-and-quick-throw mode and capping the ceiling for the passing game. He advised best-ball drafters to moderate exposure to full Bengals stacks and be mindful of weekly matchup risk in DFS until Mims proves durable.

Steve Palazzolo advised listeners to steer clear of Jermaine Burton, predicting the rookie will be cut before Week 1. Asked to choose between Burton becoming a reliable WR3 or being off the roster entirely, Palazzolo said "off the roster" would be his bet. His reasoning: Tee Higgins’ extension means the starting spots are locked, and Andre Yosivas has already proven he can handle depth and red-zone duties. Without special-teams value, Burton offers little roster utility, so Palazzolo doubts Cincinnati will keep a developmental wideout over linemen or defensive backs on the 53. The upshot: fade Burton in best-ball dart throws and dynasty stash spots until he actually makes the team.

Steve Palazzolo said Tahj Brooks is a sneaky late-round fantasy pick because he can immediately fix the Bengals’ biggest offensive flaw: short-yardage futility. Cincinnati repeatedly had to let Joe Burrow heave deep on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 last season because the line failed to get a push and no back could grind out a yard. Palazzolo likes Brooks’ compact build, surprising footwork, and history of hammering between the tackles at Texas Tech, calling him "the exact stylistic opposite of Chase Brown." He expects Brooks to earn the primary goal-line and power packages by mid-camp, projecting the rookie to siphon touchdowns while leaving the open-field snaps to Brown. The end result, Palazzolo believes, is a free-square TD vulture in double-digit rounds of season-long and best-ball drafts whose spike-week upside far exceeds current ADP.

Steve Palazzolo labeled Joe Burrow a locked-in top-3 fantasy QB again in 2025. He highlighted that the offense "was cooking" down the stretch and the front office went against expectations by keeping the entire Burrow-Chase-Higgins trio together. With both star wideouts now under contract, Burrow retains the league’s highest combined WR target-earning rate from 2023 (51% team targets to Chase/Higgins). Palazzolo also pointed out that even in a season where the offensive line ceded a 29th-ranked pass-block win rate, Burrow still produced MVP chatter. With continuity at OC and another year of cohesion, Palazzolo expects 4,700-plus passing yards and 35-40 TDs, making Burrow worth an early-round investment in season-long drafts and a weekly DFS ceiling play.

Sam Monson forecasted the Bengals defense to rebound from 29th in EPA per play to at least middle-of-the-pack, making them a legitimate streaming DST in season-long leagues. His optimism hinges on three pillars: (1) a schematic refresh under new coordinator Al Golden after Lou Anarumo’s message "got stale"; (2) healthier corners—DJ Turner and Dax Hill return after missing a combined 17 games; and (3) the likely re-signing of Trey Hendrickson, whose 91.1 PFF pass-rush grade covered up a pass-rush unit that finished bottom three in pressure rate when he was off the field. Monson cautioned that if the holdout lingers the upside caps, but with Hendrickson aboard he expects the unit to push 40-plus sacks and finish as a weekly top-12 fantasy defense in favorable matchups.

Steve Palazzolo said the Bengals are a strong bet to clear the 9.5-win total on FanDuel. He argued Cincinnati were only "a kick here and a play there" from finishing 12-5 instead of 9-8 last season despite fielding a bottom-five pass rush for long stretches. With Joe Burrow fully healthy, both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins extended, and Al Golden replacing Lou Anarumo to push the defense back toward league average, Palazzolo expects an elite offense paired with a merely competent defense—the same formula that powered their 2021 Super Bowl run. He added that if Trey Hendrickson’s contract standoff gets resolved the defense could swing two extra wins on its own, making the over even safer.

Sam Monson urged listeners to keep hammering Chiefs futures and playoff DFS stacks because Patrick Mahomes historically morphs into a mistake-free machine once the postseason starts. Monson cited PFF’s turnover-worthy-play rate, noting Mahomes sits in the middle of the pack during regular-season games but drops to "Justin Herbert levels"—i.e., top-five cautious—each January. That single change, he argued, alters Kansas City’s entire offensive profile: long drives stay alive, defensive game scripts tighten, and Andy Reid doesn’t need to ‘save’ exotic concepts the way fans assume. The Chief’s recent Super Bowl track record despite mid-season funks illustrates how valuable that shift is. If you are building playoff best-ball teams, stacking Mahomes with Kansas City pass-catchers remains a +EV move, and bettors should not shy away from AFC or Super Bowl tickets even if the offense looks pedestrian in October.

Steve Palazzolo warned fantasy managers and win-total bettors not to assume Baltimore’s kicking game will stay elite just because the rest of the roster looks Super-Bowl ready. He noted that Justin Tucker was the one kicker who routinely dodged year-to-year variance, but Tucker’s 2024 drop-off (career-worst 84% on field goals and three misses inside 45 yards) showed even he can regress. With Tucker gone, sixth-round rookie Tyler Loop steps into a high-leverage role on a team that plays a lot of one-score games in the AFC North. Palazzolo stressed that Loop offers none of Tucker’s decade-long consistency, and John Harbaugh’s aggressiveness on fourth down only magnifies the risk because the staff will happily bypass shaky field-goal attempts. His advice: fade Loop in season-long formats that still use kickers, avoid him in early-season DFS slates, and recognize that Baltimore’s 11.5-win over might hinge on a position that is suddenly as random for them as it is for everyone else.

Sam Monson dismissed offensive-line hand-wringing and kept Derrick Henry firmly in the RB1 conversation. He pointed to 2024—the veteran’s "best statistical season"—as proof that Baltimore’s backfield "axis" of Henry plus Lamar Jackson buys the line the grace it needs. Defenses must rush conservatively to contain Jackson while Henry sheds arm tackles, leading to late-game explosion runs mirroring his Tennessee heyday. Even if second-year RT Roger Rosengarden stagnates and the guards are a revolving door of Daniel Faalele, Andrew Voorhees or Ben Cleveland, Monson expects the math to stay heavily in Henry’s favor. Fantasy managers and DFS players, he argued, should continue treating Henry as a high-volume, touchdown-rich option tailor-made for run-heavy scripts when Baltimore plays from ahead.

Steve Palazzolo said Lamar Jackson should again be treated as a top-tier fantasy quarterback after back-to-back healthy seasons that produced one MVP and even better follow-up numbers. Palazzolo emphasized the supporting cast upgrade—Derrick Henry’s power runs forcing lighter boxes, Zay Flowers’ second-year leap, a cheap flier on DeAndre Hopkins, and both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely at tight end. He argued that Lamar’s dual-threat skill set masks any lingering offensive-line concerns, routinely "opens it up for Henry" and allows Baltimore to post elite efficiency regardless of pass-protection grades. Given the Ravens’ habit of blowing out quality opponents and Jackson’s capacity to "take over any game at any time," Palazzolo projected another top-3 fantasy finish and labeled him a weekly DFS cornerstone.

Sam Monson framed Baltimore’s FanDuel win total of 11.5 as entirely reasonable, noting the Ravens have posted a 12-5 record, own one of the two best five-year DVOA runs ever for a team without a Super Bowl trip, and field "very few holes" across the roster. He reminded listeners that Baltimore routinely crushes playoff-caliber teams in the regular season—beating Detroit, San Francisco and Buffalo handily the past two seasons—while returning an MVP-level quarterback in Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry off his best statistical year, and a defense Monson just ranked as the NFL’s best secondary. Because their only lingering questions are postseason specific, Monson implied the path to a 12-win regular season is clear and bettors should lean to the over.

Sam Monson pumped the brakes on crowning Baltimore’s secondary, warning fantasy managers and futures bettors not to pay a full elite premium. His biggest flags: Jair Alexander has logged only about 50 percent of possible snaps over the last two seasons, Chidobe Awuzie has gone from quality starter to below average in consecutive campaigns, and Malachi Starks—no matter how much scouts love him—remains an untested rookie. If Alexander’s injuries linger, Awuzie’s decline continues, or Starks struggles to adjust, the unit’s floor drops quickly. Monson still sees a high ceiling, but advised treating the Ravens D/ST as boom-or-bust rather than a locked-in top-three option and factoring that volatility into win-total and defensive-player prop bets.

Steve Palazzolo said the Ravens secondary will be the league's best unit and a difference-maker for fantasy defenses and Under bettors. He pointed to unrivaled depth and versatility: Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton can both kick inside to the slot without weakening the back end, first-round rookie Nate Wiggins locks down the other boundary spot, and Baltimore layered on three buy-low swings—Jair Alexander, Chidobe Awuzie, and fourth-rounder TJ Tampa—to make sure CB2 is no longer a weakness. Because the group can seamlessly survive injuries at outside corner, safety, or slot, Palazzolo expects Baltimore to stay in man coverage more often, dictate weekly game plans, and keep opposing passing attacks in check. That combination makes the Ravens a top-five D/ST target in season-long drafts and a team whose games could skew toward the Under until books adjust.

Steve Palazzolo warned that Kendrick Bourne could be a surprise cut once the Patriots trim to five or six receivers. With Diggs, Mack Hollins, rookie Kyle Williams, Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas and possibly Jalen Polk penciled in, Bourne is suddenly seventh in line. Palazzolo noted that New England has played the "let’s-see-what-sticks" game at wideout for years, and Bourne has survived before, but this offseason’s influx of draft capital and Hollins’ unique size/speed profile put serious pressure on the veteran. Fantasy managers stashing Bourne in deep leagues should be ready to pivot if early-August practice reports show him running with the twos.

Steve Palazzolo projected DeMario Douglas to be "the perfect slot for Josh McDaniels" and a roster lock despite the crowded depth chart. Douglas impressed the staff with his short-area quickness and route polish as a rookie, and Palazzolo thinks McDaniels will feature him in the Julian Edelman-style role that historically produces a steady 18–22 percent target share. That underneath volume, especially in a pass game built on option routes, makes Douglas a sneaky PPR play and late-round best-ball pick.

Steve Palazzolo said Stefon Diggs will walk into Foxboro as the unquestioned No. 1 option and a "huge high-volume type of target" if he is anywhere near the player we saw in Buffalo or early last year in Houston before the injury. Palazzolo stressed that New England has lacked a go-to receiver for years, so even 85–90 percent of vintage Diggs would command the lion’s share of Mac Jones’ throws. He framed Diggs as the X-factor whose presence could consolidate targets and finally give the Patriots a reliable boundary weapon, making him a priority in season-long drafts and an early DFS staple if camp reports confirm good health.

Sam Monson praised Cleveland’s offseason as a sneaky win for both betting markets and IDP players. He noted the franchise turned a potential disaster—Myles Garrett demanding a trade—into a multi-year extension that keeps his elite 20-plus-percent pressure rate in Jim Schwartz’s system. Cleveland then traded down, grabbed DT Mason Graham (a top-five tape grade for Monson), and still collected quarterbacks Shadr Sanders and Dylan Gabriel as cheap escape hatches from the Deshaun Watson contract. The added draft capital plus a happy Garrett leaves Monson projecting the Browns defense to finish top-five in sacks and turnovers, making the Browns D/ST a priority after Round 12 in season-long drafts and a live long-shot in AFC North futures while books remain skeptical.

Sam Monson said fantasy managers and bettors should brace for track-meet scripts in Cincinnati games this season. The Bengals kept Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, but Monson argued they "undermined" those wins by letting the Trey Hendrickson contract dispute linger, drafting only six players, and doing nothing meaningful to fix an offensive line and pass rush that already ranked 28th in pressure rate and allowed the sixth-most yards per play in 2023. First-round edge Shamar Stewart is still unsigned, leaving a real chance the defense starts slow again. Monson expects that to push Joe Burrow’s weekly attempts back into the 40-plus range, propping up Chase/Higgins in all formats and creating early value on game-total overs, Bengals shootout stacks in DFS, and long-shot Burrow MVP tickets before sportsbooks adjust.

Steve Palazzolo called the Steelers’ decision to roll with Aaron Rodgers a "fun gamble" that creates a huge range of outcomes for both bettors and season-long players. He likened Rodgers’ current "back-against-the-wall" mindset to the post-Jordan Love season that produced two MVP awards, arguing that pairing the veteran with Arthur Smith’s play-action heavy scheme and an already nasty defense gives Pittsburgh legitimate contender upside. Palazzolo acknowledged the scenario could also implode—especially if Rodgers’ age (41) shows or locker-room drama flares—but maintained that, from a futures perspective, the ceiling justifies sprinkling on long-shot AFC odds and viewing Steelers skill players as discounted upside plays in drafts.

Sam Monson said Mike Green could be one of the biggest steals of the entire draft for Baltimore. Green’s tape graded as a top-15 overall player, but he tumbled into Round 2 strictly because of off-field concerns. Monson cited data showing that teams historically gain surplus value when they stop a talented player’s slide relative to the consensus board. If the character flags prove manageable, Baltimore will have landed a first-round caliber edge defender at a massive discount—a profile worth stashing in deeper IDP or dynasty formats given the Ravens’ track record of maximizing front-seven talent.