Parker fired on Andrew Novak at +9000 after the 29-year-old bounced back with a T11 at the Charles Schwab, finishing 2nd in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green. That result extends a run of five Top-20 finishes in his last six starts, highlighted by a Zurich Classic team win, a solo 2nd at RBC Heritage, and a T3 at Valero. Over that stretch Novak ranks 7th in this Memorial field in tee-to-green performance. While his putter can be streaky, Parker believes Novak’s proven ability to thrive on difficult setups makes him a live longshot in this limited field.

Neil Parker backed Sepp Straka at +4500 to win the Memorial, arguing oddsmakers have slept on a player who already owns two PGA Tour victories this year and grabbed a T5 here in 2024 while gaining strokes in every category. Since his January win at The American Express, Straka ranks 8th in this limited field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and driving accuracy, 2nd on approach, and 14th in putting. Season-long marks are just as shiny—4th in adjusted scoring average, 2nd in birdie-or-better rate, and 5th in bogey avoidance—signaling the all-around form needed to tame Jack’s Place.

Parker recommended Tony Finau at +5000, noting this will be Finau’s ninth start at Muirfield Village where he’s logged five Top-15 finishes, including a T8 last year with gains across every strokes-gained bucket. Finau arrives having gained true strokes in all facets in consecutive signature events (T15, T19) and sits 12th in this field both tee-to-green and on approach over that span. With momentum building and nothing but high finishes (five Top-5s) since his last win at the 2023 Mexico Open, Parker sees real outright equity at 50-1.

For Round-1 props, Parker took Jordan Spieth over 2.5 bogeys or worse at -125 on DraftKings. Although Spieth boasts a win and seven additional Top-10s at Colonial, he just missed the cut at the PGA Championship and over the past two events sits 96th in this field on approach and 108th in driving accuracy. His season rank is only 58th in bogey avoidance, and he averages exactly 3.0 bogeys per round across his last two trips to Colonial. Spieth is also 92nd on TOUR in Round-1 scoring average. Parker anticipates a generally better week for the Texan overall, but not without a blemish-filled Thursday card.

Parker played Andrew Novak Top-30 at +137 on bet365 despite last week’s missed cut at Quail Hollow. Before that hiccup, Novak rattled off four strong starts: a Zurich team win, two additional Top-5s, and a T17 at the Truist, gaining true strokes across the board in each. During that window he ranks third in this field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and 17th in putting. Colonial will be his third appearance, and Parker expects familiarity plus elite recent metrics to produce a solid bounce-back showing inside the top 30.

Parker advised taking Harris English for a Top-30 finish at -105 on DraftKings. English is coming off a career-best T2 at the PGA Championship where he fired a Sunday-low 65 and gained strokes in every facet. Colonial history is encouraging as well: two prior Top-5s and a T12 in 2023. Over his last eight measured rounds he ranks third in the field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and fifth on approach, while the putter finally clicked with +2.51 strokes-gained on the greens in the PGA finale. Given that combination of course history and recent ball-striking, Parker sees a Top-30 as a high-percentage wager.

Parker suggested a flyer on Ryan Gerard to win at +7000 on FanDuel. Gerard sits 9th on TOUR in adjusted scoring average and 11th in Par-4 scoring, has gained true strokes in every category all season, and backed it up with a solo second at Valero plus seven Top-20s overall. Last week he finished T8 at the PGA Championship, ranking third in true strokes-gained tee-to-green at Quail Hollow. Parker pointed to Gerard’s Korn Ferry and Mackenzie Tour wins as proof he can close and believes the 70-1 price does not reflect his all-around form.

Neil Parker recommended betting Daniel Berger outright at +2500 on DraftKings. Parker noted Berger already lifted the trophy here in 2020, has made 10 straight cuts, and ranks second in this week’s field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and third on approach over that stretch. The heater includes two Top-5s and six additional Top-25s, all in tougher, top-heavy fields than the one assembled at Colonial. With the event lacking most of the TOUR’s elite names, Parker believes Berger’s elite ball-striking and past comfort on the layout make him undervalued to win.

Neil Parker urged bettors not to overreact to Andrew Novak’s missed cut at the PGA Championship, noting Quail Hollow’s Green Mile derailed plenty of cards. Prior to that hiccup Novak was on fire: a Zurich team win, two additional Top-5s, and a T17 at the Truist while gaining true strokes across the board. Over that span he ranks 3rd in this week’s field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 17th with the putter. Although his Colonial history is limited, this is his third crack at the track and Parker expects a quick rebound, making the +6500 outright number on FanDuel attractive.

Neil Parker recommended Brian Harman at +6000, arguing the lefty’s Colonial résumé and scorching putter make him a live sleeper. Harman has teed it up at Colonial 12 times with three Top-10 finishes, giving him as much local knowledge as anyone outside the favorites. Since capturing the Valero in early April he has gained true strokes in every category, including five straight events gaining with the flat-stick—good for 11th in this field in true strokes gained putting. Add in his status as a three-time PGA Tour winner and Parker believes the market is underrating his win equity at 60-1.

Neil Parker said Harris English is worth an outright stab at +4000 because the veteran is peaking everywhere but the sportsbook odds board. English followed a T11 at the Truist with a Sunday-low 65 and solo second at the PGA Championship, gaining true strokes in every category over the last two weeks. Inside this watered-down Colonial field he ranks 3rd in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 5th on approach, a profile tailor-made for the positional demands at Colonial. Although the flat-stick was shaky early at Valhalla, English still picked up +2.51 strokes putting in the final round, a sign Parker expects the putter to cooperate again. Course history adds confidence: two prior Top-5 finishes and a T12 last year at Colonial. Parker views that combination of current form, elite ball-striking metrics, and proven track record as mispriced at 40-1.

Chris Gregory said the +250 outright number on Scottie Scheffler is still worth a wager despite looking prohibitively short at first glance. Gregory pointed out that Scheffler is in video-game form, winning his last two starts by a combined 13 strokes—an eight-shot romp at the Byron Nelson and a five-shot victory at the PGA Championship. That heater has vaulted him back to World No. 1 and the top of the FedEx Cup standings. Course history reinforces the buy: Scheffler has finished inside the Top 3 at Colonial three years running (2022-2024) and has never missed the cut in five career appearances. With no other player in the field priced below +2000 and the next tier headlined by Tommy Fleetwood, Hideki Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth, Gregory argued that Scheffler’s dominance plus his proven track record here justifies eating the short price in the outright market.

Osborne played Toronto –0.5 on the first-five-innings run line (–120) against Tampa Bay. Over the past two weeks the Blue Jays rank 1st in OPS versus right-handed pitching, while the Rays sit 25th. Kevin Gausman owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA at Rogers Centre compared with a 5.27 mark on the road, and Jays hitters carry an .807 OPS in 49 career at-bats versus Tampa starter Zack Littell. Tampa’s bats have also slumped away from Tropicana Field (24th in road OPS over the last month). Osborne expects Toronto’s right-hand heavy lineup to give Gausman early support and cash the F5 run-line ticket before bullpens enter.

Metler grabbed Brent Rooker to hit a home run at +375, noting projections price the swing closer to +275. Rooker already homered in one of two career at-bats versus opener Matt Sauer, and left-handed hitters are batting well over .350 against Sauer in a limited sample. With Sauer unlikely to face Rooker more than once, the A’s slugger should then see a southpaw bulk reliever—no problem given Rooker’s 1.000+ OPS and 10 HR last season against left-handed pitching. Weather at Dodger Stadium is ideal (sunny, 65°, wind blowing out to right, Rooker’s pull side), adding another boost to the long-ball probability.

Osborne took Hunter Brown over 1.5 walks (–135) in Arlington. Brown has issued seven free passes across his last two outings, and control was a problem versus Texas in 2023 when he walked eight hitters in three starts. The Rangers’ revamped lineup under a new hitting coach sports a near-10 % walk rate against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Given Brown’s shaky command trend and Texas’ patient approach, Osborne expects at least two walks before the Astros can get him out of the game.

Osborne targeted Jake Cronenworth for over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at even money, arguing the Padres’ first baseman is perfectly positioned to cash multiple counting stats against Kyle Hendricks and the league’s worst road bullpen (7.02 ERA). Cronenworth owns a .973 lifetime OPS in 13 at-bats versus Hendricks and carries a .935 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. He is seeing the ball well lately, posting an .872 OPS over the past week, and should hit in the heart of a San Diego lineup that is scorching righties. Osborne highlighted that any early exit by Hendricks only helps, as Los Angeles relievers have surrendered the highest hard-hit rate in MLB away from home. Given the matchup, recent form, and historical success, Osborne believes Cronenworth needs only one multi-base knock or a couple of trips on base to clear the 1.5 line and likes pairing the prop with his Hendricks fades for correlated upside.

Joe Osborne doubled-down on fading Kyle Hendricks by playing over 1.5 walks in Wednesday’s start at Petco. Osborne reminded viewers that Hendricks’ 5.30 ERA is being propped up by shaky command: the veteran has issued at least two free passes in five of his last six outings, including three different starts with three-plus walks. San Diego is a nightmare matchup for a pitcher struggling with location—Padres right-handed batters are drawing walks at the third-highest clip in MLB over the past two weeks and rank second in overall OPS against righties during that span. Osborne expects Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. to extend counts, inflating Hendricks’ pitch total and forcing manager Ron Washington to pull him early, which makes the 1.5 line too low. He noted that bettors can correlate this wager with his previously stated under 15.5 outs play or even build a plus-245 parlay, but he is comfortable firing on the walk prop as a standalone fade.

Osborne played Kyle Hendricks under 15.5 outs in Anaheim’s matchup with the Padres. Hendricks sports a 5.30 ERA and has been tagged for 12 earned runs across his last two road starts. The right-hander’s most recent trip to Petco came early last season, when the Padres hung seven earned on him. He has stayed under 16 outs in five of seven 2024 appearances, and the assignment is no easier against a San Diego offense that sits second in OPS versus right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Osborne does not expect Hendricks to survive five full frames.

Metler loves Brandon Lowe to leave the yard at +575 against Chris Bassitt. Lowe owns video-game BvP numbers versus Bassitt—5-for-11 with three homers. He just produced two hits and a walk in Toronto last night, signaling good visual on the ball in Rogers Centre. Bassitt has coughed up at least two homers in each of his last three outings (six total) and is getting tagged harder by left-handed hitters. Projection models place Lowe near +400, making +575 one of Metler’s favorite dinger prices of the season.

Osborne bet Michael Lorenzen under 17.5 recorded outs. Lorenzen owns stark home/road splits: 0.95 ERA at Kauffman versus 5.47 on the road, where he has failed to clear 17.5 outs in four of five starts. He now draws an Astros lineup that has finally awakened—third in OPS versus right-handed pitching over the past week and second in OPS at home over the past month. Facing a red-hot Houston offense in hitter-friendly Minute Maid, Osborne expects Kansas City manager Matt Quatraro to have a quick hook if traffic stacks up, making 6.0 innings unlikely.

Metler fired on Wilmer Flores to hit a home run at +875 in a matinee at Oracle Park. The right-handed Flores faces southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who has already surrendered eight long balls this season—seven of them to right-handed hitters. Weather is ideal for offense (around 60 °F and sunny, no marine layer issues). Projection models price Flores closer to +525, giving what Metler calls a massive probability gap. He emphasized Rodriguez’s 2024 hard-contact issues and Oracle’s neutral wind conditions as further support.

Tony Sartori recommended Keith Mitchell at +13000 to lift the Wanamaker, citing six straight made cuts with positive total strokes gained and no finish worse than T18. The run includes a runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship and showcases a surge in tee-to-green performance. Mitchell’s Quail Hollow resume is even more encouraging: he finished T3 at the course in the 2021 Wells Fargo, a leaderboard that featured Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele. Sartori also noted Mitchell’s T20 at last year’s U.S. Open as proof he can handle major-caliber fields. With elite driving and a comfort level on this track, Sartori believes the 130-1 price is mispriced value for an outright ticket.

Tony Sartori urged bettors to sprinkle Daniel Berger at +10000 to win the PGA Championship, pointing to a nine-event tear in which Berger has not only made every cut but gained total strokes each week. During that stretch he has finished T30 or better every time, flashed upside with a runner-up at the WM Phoenix Open and a T3 at the Signature-level RBC Heritage, and gained strokes putting, around the green, on approach, and off the tee in at least seven of those nine starts. Sartori emphasized Berger’s elite driving accuracy—vital at Quail Hollow’s hallway-narrow fairways and gnarly rough—and argued that the well-rounded form proves he can hang with the sport’s elite in a major. All of that makes Berger a viable longshot worth backing at triple-digit odds.

Murphy flagged Aaron Rai as ChatGPT’s favorite longshot at +15000. The Englishman ranks top-5 on Tour in fairways-hit percentage and strokes-gained approach over the last ten events, an ideal profile for Quail Hollow’s elevated, well-bunkered greens. Rai has quietly gained strokes in every major category in five consecutive starts and posted multiple top-25 finishes this season. His nerves were proven when he stared down McIlroy at the 2023 Scottish Open. If the putter cooperates (career best strokes-gained putting the past month), Murphy believes Rai can lurk on Sunday and cash top-10/top-20 tickets as well.

Murphy noted that ChatGPT slots Bryson DeChambeau third at +950. Supporting metrics: recent LIV Golf Korea victory, runner-up at the Masters, average driving distance 328 yards (top-3 worldwide) and strokes-gained off-the-tee plus 1.05 over his last five starts. Quail Hollow’s length (7,600-plus yards) rewards his power, and firmer May fairways will leave him short irons into the par-5s, creating eagle chances. The AI model factored in his improved wedge proximity (ranked 14th in the past three months) as evidence he can convert power into scoring.

Murphy relayed ChatGPT’s projection that Scottie Scheffler, priced +400, will finish runner-up or better. Key data fed into the model included Scheffler tying the PGA Tour 72-hole scoring record with a 31-under at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, ranking No.1 in strokes-gained tee-to-green over the last 12 months, and gaining over 1.2 strokes per round with the putter since March. His elite long-iron game is tailor-made for Quail Hollow’s 16-hole stretch known as the Green Mile, where approach shots over 190 yards are common.

Ryan Murphy said Rory McIlroy is the rightful +450 favorite to win at Quail Hollow. McIlroy rolls in with Masters momentum (completing the career Grand Slam) and an unmatched course résumé: four career victories at Quail including 2010, 2015, 2021 and 2023. ChatGPT’s model emphasized that familiarity, plus McIlroy’s elite current form—bogey-free 66 to open, 65 Friday surge fueled by a 343-yard drive/eagle, and a gritty 70 in Saturday winds. Murphy added that Rory’s iron play (laser-accurate approaches) and putter under pressure on 11 and 17 have him primed to close, projecting a four-round total around −15.

Neil Parker recommended Harris English at +22500 (Caesars) citing the veteran's consistency on tough tracks. English has made six straight major cuts, including a T12 at this year's Masters, and he has never missed a weekend in six previous Quail Hollow starts. He finished T3 at the 2023 Wells Fargo on this course and ranks eighth in the entire field in true strokes gained putting since winning the Farmers in January. A five-time PGA Tour winner with a reliable flat stick and proven Quail Hollow record, English profiles as a high-ceiling sleeper worth a small outright wager.

Parker labeled Max Homa a live longshot at +17000 on FanDuel thanks to his proven Quail Hollow comfort. Homa captured the 2019 Wells Fargo here and has followed with back-to-back T8 finishes, producing +1.55 true strokes gained per round over that stretch. Although the Californian's overall game has not peaked this season, he just logged a T12 at the Masters, showing flashes of major-championship form. Given his history of gaining across all four strokes-gained categories at this venue, Parker believes the combination of course fit and an inflated price tag makes Homa a smart outright sprinkle.

Neil Parker urged bettors to grab the +9000 outright number on Patrick Reed for the 2025 PGA Championship. Parker pointed to Reed's extensive resume at Quail Hollow: solo 3rd at this year's Masters, runner-up in the 2017 PGA at the same track, plus Top-10 finishes in the 2018 and 2021 Wells Fargo events. The American enters on a heater with seven straight Top-25s (five Top-10s) while gaining true strokes in every major category. Over his last five appearances at Quail Hollow he sits eighth in the field in true strokes gained, and he ranks 20th both tee-to-green and putting during his current form, giving Parker confidence Reed can contend again on a course that clearly suits his eye.

Metler also grabbed Josh Jung to homer at +700. Jung owns an OPS north of .800 versus right-handed pitching and just went deep at Comerica Park on Sunday, suggesting he is seeing the ball well. Dollander is vulnerable to both handedness, and once he exits the game Colorado’s bullpen (5.78 ERA, bottom-three HR/9) offers even softer matchups. Projection models make Jung roughly +525, giving bettors a sizable edge at the posted price.

Metler played Wyatt Langford to hit a home run at +425. Colorado rookie Chase Dollander has surrendered eight homers in just 28 innings (2.6 HR/9) and is allowing right-handed hitters a .298 average with three bombs. Globe Life Field offers a neutral 80-degree environment with the roof likely open, one of the few hitter-friendly weather spots on Monday’s slate. Projection models price Langford closer to +300, giving roughly a 5-point edge over implied odds.

Parker advised laying the ‑115 on Joaquin Niemann to be Top South American in the PGA Championship. The Chilean has three wins in eight LIV starts, will be making his fourth appearance at Quail Hollow, and has gained strokes across the board since his first 2025 victory, ranking eighth tee-to-green and 14th putting in this field during that stretch. His only competition in the market is Jonathan Vegas—who has missed the cut in four of his last six majors—and Nico Echavarria, who missed the cut in his only Quail Hollow start. Given Niemann’s superior form and course familiarity, Parker considers the price a bargain.

Backing Harris English for a Top-40 at +140, Parker cited the veteran’s reliability in majors—six straight made cuts capped by a T12 at the Masters—and his comfort at Quail Hollow, where he has never missed the weekend in six prior appearances and posted a T3 in the 2023 Wells Fargo. English has finished inside the Top-40 in four of his last five starts and is eighth in this field in true strokes gained putting since his Farmers Insurance victory. Parker added that English’s proven success on difficult setups further supports him as a conservative, plus-money play.

Parker called the +140 price on Patrick Reed for a Top-30 finish “enormous” given Reed’s resume. Reed was solo 3rd at this year’s Masters, finished runner-up in the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, and owns two additional Top-10s at the track (2018 and 2021 Wells Fargo). He’s riding a streak of seven straight Top-25 finishes, five of which were Top-10s, while ranking 20th in this field in both true strokes gained tee-to-green and putting over that span. Reed is also eighth in true strokes gained specifically at Quail Hollow, leading Parker to label the market badly mispriced.

Parker recommended a flier on Corey Conners at +7500 to win outright, noting the Canadian has finished T13 and T8 in his two most recent trips to Quail Hollow and ranks fourth in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green over his last seven events. Conners has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in each of those seven tournaments and even flipped the usual weakness by gaining strokes putting for the entire run, highlighted by a +2.14 putting performance in the final round of the 2024 Wells Fargo at this venue. Coming off a T11 at the Truist Championship, Parker believes Conners’ elite ball-striking plus trending flat stick give him legitimate sleeper equity.

Neil Parker said Rory McIlroy should be backed at +500 to win the 2025 PGA Championship because Quail Hollow is basically Rory’s personal playground. McIlroy owns four victories and five additional Top-10s in 13 career starts at the course and leads this field in true strokes gained at Quail Hollow over the last five Wells Fargo Championships played here. He arrives on a heater, winning four of his last ten worldwide starts and ranking third in the field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting during that span. Parker acknowledged the difficulty of winning back-to-back majors but argued McIlroy is “playing the best golf on the planet,” making the short price worth swallowing.

Georges St. Pierre singled out Aiemann Zahabi as the Canadian most likely to “shine” on the UFC 315 card, even with the daunting task of facing legend Jose Aldo on home soil. GSP, who will be in Zahabi’s corner, said the key is emotional control: sleeping in your own bed and hearing the crowd can tempt a fighter to press, but Zahabi simply needs to stick to his usual measured style to prevail. St. Pierre believes Zahabi’s all-around game is already "enough to win" if he avoids forcing highlight-reel moments. Bettors looking for a plus-money local angle got a subtle stamp of approval from the welterweight GOAT.

Georges St. Pierre said Belal Muhammad is the clear side of this matchup despite the –190 price tag. He called Muhammad "very well-rounded" but emphasized the specific edges that matter at the window: a sizable wrestling/takedown advantage, relentless forward pressure that forces opponents onto their heels, and elite cage-clinch work that allows him to grind along the fence. GSP added that Muhammad has “more ways to win” than Jack Della Maddalena, who essentially needs to land a clean counter as Belal shoots or crashes distance. In GSP’s view, if Muhammad keeps chaining takedowns and walks JDM back to the fence the way he usually does, he should justify favoritism and possibly look dominant.

Georges St. Pierre singled out Aiemann Zahabi as the Canadian most likely to “shine” on the UFC 315 card, even with the daunting task of facing legend Jose Aldo on home soil. GSP, who will be in Zahabi’s corner, said the key is emotional control: sleeping in your own bed and hearing the crowd can tempt a fighter to press, but Zahabi simply needs to stick to his usual measured style to prevail. St. Pierre believes Zahabi’s all-around game is already "enough to win" if he avoids forcing highlight-reel moments. Bettors looking for a plus-money local angle got a subtle stamp of approval from the welterweight GOAT.

Georges St. Pierre said Belal Muhammad is the clear side of this matchup despite the –190 price tag. He called Muhammad "very well-rounded" but emphasized the specific edges that matter at the window: a sizable wrestling/takedown advantage, relentless forward pressure that forces opponents onto their heels, and elite cage-clinch work that allows him to grind along the fence. GSP added that Muhammad has “more ways to win” than Jack Della Maddalena, who essentially needs to land a clean counter as Belal shoots or crashes distance. In GSP’s view, if Muhammad keeps chaining takedowns and walks JDM back to the fence the way he usually does, he should justify favoritism and possibly look dominant.

Backing Seattle at -141, Chris Vasile cited two converging angles: a Jays bullpen he "already doesn’t trust" and Luis Castillo’s ability to put the Mariners in front early. Toronto’s relievers own a league-worst 5.47 ERA and have coughed up leads in four of their last six appearances. Meanwhile, Castillo has a 2.59 ERA at T-Mobile Park since the start of 2024 and is limiting opponents to a .202 batting average this season. Vasile anticipates a classic Castillo "gem"—six or more innings with double-digit swing-and-misses—allowing Seattle’s top-10 leverage bullpen to shorten the game. Given the expected pitching disparity both at the start and the end, he views the Mariners moneyline as the smart side.

Chris Vasile recommended laying the -125 with Philadelphia because the Phillies’ league-leading offense (131 wRC+) draws a Guardians starter sporting an ERA north of 5.00 and a .357 expected wOBA against. Vasile expects the hot bats that just hung 18 runs in their last two games to stay in attack mode. On the mound, Aaron Nola has posted back-to-back gems (15 IP, 2 ER, 17 K, 1 BB) and Vasile believes the veteran will secure his second win in as many turns given Cleveland’s 28th-ranked hard-hit rate and bottom-five slugging percentage versus righties. With both a lineup edge and the better form pitcher, Vasile sees clear betting value on the Phillies moneyline.

Chris Vasile laid out why he is backing the Brewers at -110 on the moneyline. He is actively fading Tampa Bay’s sputtering offense, noting that one isolated 5-run outburst is not enough to convince him the Rays have fixed a unit that ranks near the bottom of the league in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching. Vasile highlighted Jose Quintana’s "solid" start to 2025: a 2.91 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and five straight quality starts while averaging 6.2 innings per outing. Because Milwaukee’s bullpen has been spared heavy usage thanks to Quintana’s length, Vasile expects the lefty to attack a Rays lineup striking out 24.7% of the time against southpaws. In his view, Tampa’s lack of thump plus Quintana’s form makes the Brewers a value play in a coin-flip price range.

Neil Parker wagered on Collin Morikawa to post a Round-1 Top-20 finish at +100, arguing Philadelphia Cricket Club perfectly suits the two-time major champion’s elite iron game. Morikawa enters the week 14th on tour in adjusted scoring average, 4th in birdie-or-better rate, and 8th in bogey avoidance. He’s also gained strokes in every major category this season, ranking 2nd tee-to-green, 1st on approach, and 4th in driving accuracy. Parker expects those strengths to translate immediately on Thursday, creating early leaderboard equity without needing Morikawa to sustain the pace for four days.

Neil Parker took Andrew Novak for a Top-30 finish at -112, citing the rookie’s three-event tear: a victory at the Zurich Classic team event, a solo 2nd at the RBC Heritage, and a T3 at the Valero Texas Open. During that stretch Novak ranks 5th in this field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting, while also sitting above tour average in adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance—and he actually leads the entire PGA Tour in putts per round this season. Parker expects the well-rounded form to travel after a week of rest.

Neil Parker played Sam Burns Top 30 at -114, noting the five-time Tour winner has improved his finish three tournaments in a row, capped by a T5 at last week’s Byron Nelson. Although Burns’ season-long ball-striking numbers are down (-0.41 SG approach, ‑0.18 SG tee-to-green vs. last year’s +0.28 and +0.72), he showed progress in both categories at Craig Ranch. Combine that with the fact he leads this entire field in true strokes-gained putting for 2025, and Parker believes a conservative Top-30 ticket lets the red-hot putter do the heavy lifting while limiting risk.

Neil Parker recommended Corey Conners outright at +3200, stating that his modest T49 at the RBC Heritage was likely a post-Masters letdown after finishing T8 at Augusta. Prior to that dip, Conners logged six straight Top-25s including a solo 3rd at the Arnold Palmer and three additional Top-10s. Over that span he ranked 3rd in this field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green, 15th in putting, and 5th in driving accuracy. Parker expects that all-around profile to play perfectly at Philadelphia Cricket Club and sees the Canadian as mispriced relative to the top tier.

Neil Parker backed Tommy Fleetwood at +3000 to win the Truist Championship, arguing the Englishman is knocking on the door of his first PGA Tour victory. Parker pointed out that Fleetwood has made 18 straight cuts, ranks 4th in this field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green and 3rd on approach, and has produced seven Top-10 finishes during that run, most recently a solo 7th in a stacked RBC Heritage. Fleetwood has also gained strokes putting in five of his last seven starts, so Parker believes average work with the flatstick will be enough for the elite ball-striking to carry him into contention on Sunday.

Neil Parker urged bettors to sprinkle on Andrew Novak at +6500, highlighting a confidence-fueled run that includes a team win at the Zurich Classic, a solo 2nd at the RBC Heritage, and a T3 at the Valero Texas Open. Over that three-event sample Novak ranks 5th in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 10th in putting. Season-long, he also sits above average in adjusted scoring average and bogey avoidance while pacing the PGA Tour in putts per round. Parker believes those metrics translate well to Philadelphia Cricket Club’s demanding layout and make Novak a dangerous sleeper who is still being priced as a journeyman rather than a player in form.