Jon Metler is backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to break out of his early-season home run drought tonight, attracted sharply by the long +775 odds being offered by BetMGM. Typically trading around +400, Guerrero Jr.'s unusually long odds reflect his slow start without a home run, driving the market price progressively higher. Metler emphasizes that projections still consider Guerrero Jr.'s true odds close to +450, creating tremendous betting value at +775. Guerrero has had decent historical success against Boston starter Tanner Houck, notching five hits including two doubles in 17 career at-bats, though he's not yet homered against him. Additionally, a favorable wind condition blowing out at 10 mph to right field at Fenway Park further bolsters the optimism. Given the massive discrepancy between market odds and projections, Metler eagerly recommends capitalizing on this inflated price.

Joe Osborne strongly endorses betting Shota Imanaga under 1.5 earned runs at plus-140 odds against the Texas Rangers. He highlights Imanaga's stellar start to the season, boasting a minuscule 0.98 ERA and a remarkable 0.71 WHIP across three tough matchups against top-tier teams Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Osborne sees this as a repeatable pattern from last year, when Imanaga similarly excelled early, allowing one or fewer earned runs in seven of his first nine starts. Supporting Osborne's bet further is the Rangers' offense, currently ranked a dismal 25th in OPS this season, indicating a sluggish start offensively. Osborne confidently sees significant value on this prop given Imanaga's formidable recent form combined with the Rangers' early offensive struggles.

Jon Metler identified strong value on Francisco Lindor to hit a home run at +550 odds versus the Marlins' Max Meyer. Meyer surrendered an alarmingly high 14 home runs in 57 innings pitched last year, and Lindor, batting from the left side, benefits from wind conditions blowing towards his pull side. Metler cited projections favoring Lindor's true odds closer to +350, signifying significant betting value. Lindor also enters hot, having homered against Miami earlier this series and tallying four hits against them recently, boosting Metler's confidence in this prop.

Joe Osborne is betting Lars Nootbaar over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Mitch Keller and the Pirates. Nootbaar has performed strongly to start the season, reaching this number in seven of his first ten games. Osborne pointed to Nootbaar's excellent history against Keller, owning a career OPS of 1.217 with five walks in 15 at-bats. Mitch Keller struggled significantly against the Yankees last time out, giving up seven runs and allowing 12 total base runners in just 3.2 innings. Osborne additionally highlighted the Pirates' bullpen woes, ranking bottom-third in ERA and FIP, offering further optimism that Nootbaar succeeds offensively in this matchup.

Neil Parker enthusiastically recommended Lucas Glover as a solid top-40 bet at -110 odds on BetMGM, praising his consistency and remarkable late-career resurgence. Neil cited Glover’s two big-time wins in August 2023 and seven top-five finishes since that time. Statistically, he's been stellar, ranking third in true strokes-gained approach, fifth in driving accuracy, and 20th in strokes gained tee-to-green in nearly two years of sustained form. Glover finished T20 at Augusta the previous year with strong putting gains, has ample Augusta experience (11th appearance, made cut 6 of 10 times), and Neil expects his reliability and accuracy to easily secure him a top-40 finish or possibly flirt with another top-20. Neil labels Glover a cash cow in top-finishing position markets and a vastly underrated play for Masters 2025 betting.

Neil Parker loves betting Corey Conners as the top Canadian at +105 odds on DraftKings, citing Conners' impressive history at Augusta National—three consecutive top-10 finishes followed by a rebound T-38 last year which included strong stroke-gain numbers in approach and putting. Neil prominently highlighted Conners’ blazing recent form, entering Augusta with four straight top-10 finishes and ranking third in the field in true strokes-gained tee-to-green during his recent surge. Neil also suggested Conners as a sneaky outright long-shot pick and noted that Canadian sportsbooks frequently offer boosted odds promotions specifically on Conners. He views Conners as a particularly valuable betting pick this weekend.

Neil Parker recommended Russell Henley as his favorite long shot to win the 2025 Masters at enticing odds of +5500. Neil noted Henley's impressive recent form, including winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational—the biggest victory of his career—and making 20 consecutive cuts. Henley ranks top-20 this year in every true strokes-gained category except off-the-tee, primarily due to accuracy over distance, a factor Neil believes won't hurt him significantly at Augusta National. Importantly, Henley has a consistent and strong Masters history, placing top-40 seven straight times, highlighted by a 4th-place finish in 2023. Neil expects a strong showing from Henley, a Georgia native with demonstrated comfort at Augusta.

Neil Parker said Rory McIlroy is clearly his favorite betting pick to win the 2025 Masters, highlighting several compelling reasons. Rory has amassed three worldwide wins plus five additional top-five finishes across his last 11 events since the conclusion of the 2024 PGA season. He's currently leading the tour in adjusted scoring average, and historically he's had exceptional performance at Augusta with seven top-10 finishes. Neil addressed Rory's narrative of major near-misses, countering that Rory consistently contends while others receive praise for similar finishes. Given his phenomenal current form, Augusta track record, and leading metrics, Neil confidently predicts Rory finally completing his career Grand Slam at Augusta this year at +675 odds on Bet365.

Andrew Caley recommended betting Will Zalatoris to finish within the top-10 at the 2025 Masters Tournament. Despite Zalatoris not having a top-10 performance this 2025 season yet, Caley highlighted Zalatoris' consistent performance with three top-25 finishes and no missed cuts as indicators of a potential breakout. Key supporting metrics include Zalatoris ranking 20th on Tour in strokes gained approach, 19th in greens in regulation, 45th in birdie-or-better percentage, and 35th in bogey avoidance. Caley stressed the importance of these statistics at Augusta, emphasizing that Zalatoris' strong ball-striking ability and mistake-avoidance are critical success factors. Historically, Zalatoris has performed exceptionally well at Augusta National, having achieved three consecutive top-10 finishes, including a second place in 2021 and ninth place in the prior year. With his track record and the course suiting his strengths, Caley advised placing the bet quickly, as the odds have already shortened from +400 to +320 in some books, signaling growing betting support.

Neil Parker advises targeting Lucas Glover as a high-value longshot pick for the Masters at a massive +20000 price, arguing that the market undervalues the veteran's consistently elite ball-striking skills. Although Glover's odds reflect some skepticism, Parker points to recent impressive performances including a T20 finish at the 2024 Masters and a notable resurgence dating to the summer of 2023 that featured back-to-back wins and multiple additional top finishes. Over this extended stretch, Glover ranks third in the field in true strokes gained on approach, fifth in driving accuracy, and top-20 in true strokes gained tee-to-green. His Masters performance last year saw strong putting numbers, ranking 11th in true strokes gained putting. Parker sees ample potential for Glover's boring yet highly efficient fairways-and-greens style to contend again at Augusta, making him an undervalued longshot with serious sleeper appeal and tournament-winning upside.

Betting analyst Neil Parker sees Corey Conners as an enticing sleeper pick for the 2025 Masters, highlighting Conners' impressive tee-to-green game and proven performance at Augusta National. Conners previously earned three consecutive Masters top-10 finishes before an uncharacteristic missed cut in 2023, bouncing back with a solid T38 finish in 2024 where he gained strokes both on approach and on the greens. Coming into Augusta this year, Conners is riding outstanding form, having compiled four consecutive top-10 finishes while gaining true strokes across all five metrics. Crucially, he currently ranks third in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green. Parker also considers the possibility of odds boosts on Conners, potentially offering even greater betting value at the listed +6000 odds. This blend of elite recent form, positive course history at Augusta, and likely enhanced betting odds boosts makes Conners a valuable sleeper selection per Parker.

Neil Parker identified Russell Henley as a valuable sleeper choice to win the 2025 Masters, emphasizing Henley's excellent recent form and his strong history at Augusta. Henley enters the event fresh off the biggest win of his career at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has impressively made 20 consecutive cuts. Parker highlights Henley's consistent tee-to-green performance, ranking top 20 in every true strokes gained category except off the tee. Even though Henley lacks driving distance, his superior accuracy (seventh in driving accuracy rankings) suits Augusta. Additionally, Henley sports an impressive track record at the Masters, boasting seven consecutive top-40 finishes including a T4 finish in 2023 alongside two additional top-20 performances. Moreover, Henley has gained strokes putting in his last three Masters appearances, ranking 11th in this field in true strokes gained on the greens. Parker strongly recommends considering Henley as a high-upside bet at +5500 due to his combination of stellar recent results, impeccable ball striking, and trusted Augusta track record.

Neil Parker identified Russell Henley as a valuable sleeper choice to win the 2025 Masters, emphasizing Henley's excellent recent form and his strong history at Augusta. Henley enters the event fresh off the biggest win of his career at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and has impressively made 20 consecutive cuts. Parker highlights Henley's consistent tee-to-green performance, ranking top 20 in every true strokes gained category except off the tee. Even though Henley lacks driving distance, his superior accuracy (seventh in driving accuracy rankings) suits Augusta. Additionally, Henley sports an impressive track record at the Masters, boasting seven consecutive top-40 finishes including a T4 finish in 2023 alongside two additional top-20 performances. Moreover, Henley has gained strokes putting in his last three Masters appearances, ranking 11th in this field in true strokes gained on the greens. Parker strongly recommends considering Henley as a high-upside bet at +5500 due to his combination of stellar recent results, impeccable ball striking, and trusted Augusta track record.

Joe Osborne enthusiastically advises betting the Cubs to surpass their alternate team total of 4.5 runs (+122) against Patrick Corbin and the Rangers. Osborne highlights Patrick Corbin's well-known struggles at Wrigley Field, evidenced by his career 5.82 ERA in this ballpark. Even further, Cubs batters collectively own an impressive 1.000+ OPS against Corbin over a solid 148 at-bat sample. Last season, Corbin allowed 5 earned runs and 9 base runners over just 4.1 innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Additionally, the Cubs offense has been red-hot lately, scoring five or more runs in seven of their previous eight games, ranking third in runs per game (6.46) and fifth overall in weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Osborne also mentions Corbin's rushed preparation, noting he hasn't pitched in spring training or minor league games and has limited readiness from only throwing a simulated game before this start. Despite some wind blowing inward at Wrigley Field, Osborne emphasizes sportsbooks have factored this in, and the price of +122 offers great value.

Joe Osborne is taking the Phillies at plus odds with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Atlanta. Joe highlights Wheeler's dominant start, allowing just one earned run in each of his two starts with only five hits conceded total and 18 strikeouts. He also emphasizes Wheeler's historic dominance against the Braves (0.95 ERA in three starts last year) and notes the Braves' MLB-worst OPS entering this matchup. Contrasting that with Philly's high-powered offense, Joe assesses clear value in backing Wheeler and the Phillies as slight underdogs.

Jon Metler is recommending Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run at attractive odds of +425 against Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly. His reasoning highlights Henderson's power split, where last season Henderson hit 29 of his 35 home runs against right-handed pitching. Jon strategically picks this matchup due to Arizona's dome providing an optimal, climate-controlled environment beneficial for hitters, contrasting with colder conditions experienced elsewhere in MLB that may limit home run potential.

Chris Gregory suggested Justin Thomas as a rising darkhorse betting candidate in the lead-up to the 2025 Masters, citing his shrinking betting odds despite not securing a victory on the 2025 PGA Tour season so far. Gregory explained that Thomas' odds movement can likely be attributed to assignments by sharp bettors recognizing his potential to perform well at Augusta, where Thomas historically has been competitive. Gregory noted Thomas' strong underlying form entering the event as further evidence supporting this betting angle.

Chris Gregory identified Collin Morikawa as intriguing from a betting perspective heading into the 2025 Masters Championship. Despite not registering any PGA Tour wins thus far in 2025, Morikawa's odds have nonetheless shortened, indicating increased market confidence. Gregory underscored this point by noting Morikawa's previous success and strong performances at Augusta National, reinforcing the idea that professional bettors are perceiving significant upside even without recent victories. His current betting price still presents attractive potential value.

According to Chris Gregory, Rory McIlroy is attracting significant betting attention for the 2025 Masters as his odds hover around +650 after recent stellar performances. McIlroy's betting price tightened considerably following victories at prestigious tournaments like the AT&T Pebble Beach and THE PLAYERS Championship. Gregory noted McIlroy has consistently put himself in contention, tallying three worldwide wins along with five additional Top-5 finishes across 11 events post-2024 PGA season. Gregory emphasized that Rory's impressive statistical profile and form, including a T5 at the recent Houston Open, continued pushing his odds downward and could even shorten further given his high handle in betting markets.

Chris Gregory pointed out Scottie Scheffler as the logical betting favorite heading into the 2025 Masters. Scheffler, a two-time Masters champion, enters Augusta on strong recent form after securing a T2 finish at the Houston Open last week. His 2025 PGA Tour season has been extremely consistent, not finishing outside of the Top 25 in six events. Gregory noted Scheffler's odds are around +400, reflecting both his elite recent form and his past success at Augusta National, while cautioning that winning the Masters in back-to-back years remains historically rare.

Chris Gregory highlighted Jon Rahm as a potential valuable betting target at +1400 odds entering the 2025 Masters. Rahm, who won the Masters back in 2023, has showcased exceptional and consistent form since joining the LIV Golf circuit. He has recorded five consecutive Top 10 finishes to kickstart the LIV Golf season, extending a remarkable streak to 17 consecutive Top 10 performances overall. While Rahm had a relatively underwhelming T45 finish at the previous Masters in 2024, he finished strong last summer with a T7 at The Open Championship and T5 at the Olympics. Gregory stressed Rahm's consistent performance could indicate the Spaniard is undervalued and flying under bettors' radar compared to popular picks like Scheffler and McIlroy.

JD Yonke recommended betting Charlie Morton to record fewer than 5.5 strikeouts against Arizona. Although Morton had 10 strikeouts in his recent start, Yonke pointed out his projected swinging strike rate (10.3%) does not support continued strikeout success. Additionally, Arizona ranks fourth-lowest in strikeout rate (18.6%) vs right-handed pitching, and Morton has fallen below the 5.5 strikeout threshold in three of his last four starts. Yonke sees value betting against Morton's ability to pile up strikeouts in this difficult matchup against an opposing team that emphasizes contact.

JD Yonke identified Orioles hitter Heston Kjerstad as a strong candidate for offensive production due to increased regular playing time after Colton Cowser's injury. Kjerstad previously showed promise with a 116 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances last year. Yonke noted that Kjerstad's high strikeout tendency (career 29.8% K rate) is mitigated against pitcher Merrill Kelly, who struggles to miss bats (15th percentile whiff rate). Additionally, Kelly is off to a poor start, ranking low in metrics such as 11th percentile xERA and allowing significant hard contact (9th percentile in average exit velocity and 6th percentile in barrel rate). This combination makes Kjerstad a promising target for prop bets such as total bases and daily fantasy sports decisions.

JD Yonke strongly recommended betting the over on Charlie Morton's earned runs (2.5), citing numerous problematic factors. At age 41, Morton has started the season poorly, allowing nine earned runs over his first 8 1/3 innings. Yonke highlighted Morton's metrics such as a disastrous 1st percentile hard-hit rate, 2nd percentile average exit velocity, and 13th percentile barrel rate, all signs of significant struggle, not just minor bad luck (BABIP .478, LOB% 53%). Yonke also mentioned Morton’s declining groundball rate (24% GB%), exacerbating his issues. In addition, Morton faces a tough Arizona lineup that ranks 7th in wRC+ (127), 6th in wOBA (.355), and 3rd in ISO (.214) against right-handed pitching. Arizona also excels against Morton's two most-used pitches (4-seam fastball and curveball). With favorable hitting conditions at Chase Field and Morton's increased workload (98 pitches previously), Yonke sees Morton easily surpassing 2.5 earned runs allowed.

Neil Parker is skeptical of Ludvig Aberg’s chances at Augusta due to recent putting struggles. Aberg, who finished second at last year's Masters, has recently missed consecutive cuts—primarily due to losing true strokes on the green in both events. The problems are compounded by inconsistent approach play. Given Augusta’s reliance on precision around challenging greens, Parker sees significant reason for concern this week for Aberg.

Neil Parker endorses Tommy Fleetwood as a compelling Top-Englishman wager for the Masters tournament. Fleetwood rides an impressive 16-tournament made-cuts streak, ranking sixth in Masters field true strokes gained tee-to-green and fourth on approach throughout that stretch. His ability to repeatedly perform in majors, highlighted by a T3 finish in last year's Masters and multiple Top-5 finishes, strengthens confidence in him outperforming fellow countrymen.

Neil Parker expects Jon Rahm to rebound strongly at this year’s Masters. Rahm, the 2023 Masters champion, consistently shines at Augusta National, featuring five Top 10 finishes in his recent Masters history. He has been gaining true strokes consistently during his recent excellent LIV Golf performances. Rahm's stroke gain on approach has been oddly low, leading Parker to argue that statistical regression to the mean suggests Rahm’s approach game will significantly improve at Augusta this week.

Neil Parker advises betting Russell Henley in a head-to-head matchup against Robert MacIntyre at Augusta due to Henley's consistent performance and strong course history. Henley enters having made 20 consecutive cuts, while ranking top 20 in almost every relevant statistical area except off-the-tee, which should matter less due to Augusta's course setup rewarding driving accuracy. Henley's steady record at the Masters—including a T4 in 2023—and recent big win at Arnold Palmer Invitational make him a quality matchup play.

Neil Parker likes Phil Mickelson to finish as the top senior at the Masters tournament. Mickelson started his 2025 LIV Golf season in impressive fashion, landing four straight Top-25 finishes including solo-third in Hong Kong and solo-sixth in Miami. He also arrives with a consistent record at Augusta National, including a T2 finish in 2023, and is currently gaining true strokes across all statistical categories. Parker believes Lefty has plenty left in the tank, making him an ideal choice for this wager.

Neil Parker is down on Xander Schauffele for the 2025 Masters, citing inconsistency since returning from injury. Schauffele struggled significantly with putting recently, notably losing strokes off the tee and on the greens across consecutive events. Although Schauffele historically plays well at Augusta with three recent Top-10 finishes, Parker believes his current shaky form makes him a strong fade candidate in head-to-head matchup markets

Neil Parker recommends betting on Corey Conners as the top Canadian finisher at the Masters, citing his impressive current form that includes four consecutive Top-10 finishes. Conners enters Augusta National riding hot momentum in true strokes gained across the board, particularly ranking third in this Masters field in strokes gained tee-to-green. Despite previous mixed results here, Parker believes Conners is positioned perfectly for success this time around.

Neil Parker likes Justin Thomas in a head-to-head matchup against Xander Schauffele for the Masters. JT ranks third in true strokes gained on approach over his past 14 events, although inconsistent putting limited his finishes initially. However, Thomas's putting has significantly improved in his past two tournaments. Considering Thomas's strong prior performances at Augusta, including Top 10 finishes in 2022 and 2020, Parker sees clear betting value in Thomas over Schauffele.

Neil Parker anticipates Scottie Scheffler will not defend his Masters title successfully. Parker points to Scheffler's concerning short-game metrics heading into Augusta. Although Scheffler managed a strong putting performance at Houston Open, his overall short game has faltered, losing true strokes gained around the greens in four of his six PGA Tour events this year. Compared to his dominant form last year, Scheffler's recent play has notably slipped.

Neil Parker recommends betting Rory McIlroy to win the Masters outright, highlighting that his game is incredibly strong right now. Rory boasts three worldwide victories and five additional Top-5 finishes across his last 11 tournaments, along with the best adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour. Combining his recent form with a proven track record of seven Top-10 finishes at Augusta National, Parker sees this as the year McIlroy finally captures the elusive career grand slam.

Eric Rosales advises betting on 'Yes Run First Inning' (YRFI) when the Astros visit the Twins. Minnesota leads MLB with first-inning runs in six of seven games this season, making them one of baseball's hottest teams when it comes to early scoring. Despite Houston being one of five MLB teams yet to score a first-inning run, Rosales highlights Twins' favorability against Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti, hitting .400 as a team against him historically. Additionally, Minnesota starter Bailey Ober has allowed early runs previously, adding to the likelihood of a first-inning run.

Eric Rosales identified Baltimore Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer as a weak early-inning performer, recommending a Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bet for the Orioles versus Royals game. Rosales focused on Kremer's last outing, where he gave up five earned runs including two runs specifically in the first inning. With the Orioles already displaying a pattern of early-inning offensive outbursts (seeing first-inning scoring scenarios in five of their first seven games), and Royals pitcher Seth Lugo also struggling early in his latest start, Rosales anticipates immediate scoring opportunities, particularly from Baltimore's bats.

Joe Osborne strongly recommended betting Kyle Freeland under 17.5 total outs recorded against the Phillies, citing clear recency bias inflating the current market. Despite Freeland's strong season debut where he registered 18 outs against Tampa Bay without giving up a run, Osborne views that start as an outlier. He pointed to Freeland's poor historical performance, emphasizing that he's posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA over five and highlighted surprisingly worse road splits with a 5.98 ERA away from Coors Field last year. Osborne also noted that Freeland faces an elite Phillies offense, which currently ranks second in MLB in OPS just behind the Yankees and leads the National League in offensive productivity to start the season. Adding to his rationale, Osborne mentioned that the Rockies bullpen is fresh and ready to act quickly, as Hermann Marquez provided six innings in the previous game, meaning the Rockies won't hesitate to pull Freeland early if he's ineffective.

Jon Metler recommended betting Nick Castellanos (+550) to homer against Kyle Freeland. Castellanos historically hits lefties well, and Freeland, a lefty, struggles against right-handed hitters. Additional favorable conditions include wind blowing out 11 mph towards left (Castellanos' pull side). Metler also noted Castellanos already has three career homers against Freeland, supporting the price advantage he sees (+550, compared to his projection closer to +350). Given Castellanos' matchup history, conditions, and clear pricing edge, Metler sees this as an ideal home run play tonight.

Joe Osborne is betting the under on Ben Lively recording 15.5 total outs for the Guardians against San Diego. He noted that despite a decent debut against Kansas City, Cleveland pulled Lively after just 5 innings and 67 pitches, indicating their cautious approach and heavy reliance on their bullpen. Last season, Lively rarely reached high pitch counts—only once surpassing 100 pitches in 29 starts and frequently kept below 90 pitches. Facing an elite Padres offense ranked 6th in OPS and lowest strikeout rate makes him more likely to struggle and exit early, especially with Guardians bullpen fresh after using just two relievers yesterday.

Jon Metler sees strong value in backing Triston Casas at +900 odds to hit a home run against Baltimore. Despite Casas' rough start (1-for-17) to the season, Metler emphasized the inflated price and Casas' genuine elite power upside. Casas faces Zach Eflin, who has a history of giving up homers, in a hitters' park (Camden Yards) with 13 mph winds blowing out to left field. Even acknowledging Casas' recent slump, Metler strongly believes this massive price presents exceptional betting value considering Casas' raw power potential in a favorable hitting environment.

Joe Osborne recommended betting on Ryan Pepiot to go over 17.5 total outs recorded prop against the Pirates. Pepiot impressed in his season debut, efficiently registering 18 outs with only 85 pitches, 8 strikeouts, and just one earned run allowed. Facing a struggling Pirates lineup (27th in OPS, .194 batting average against right-handed pitching), Pepiot is positioned well for another extended and dominant outing today in what Osborne believes could be Pepiot's breakout season.