Carty recommended betting OVER 2.5 earned runs for Carlos Rodon at +115. Rodon’s projected 40.8% fly-ball rate meets the No. 9 home-run-boosting park on Saturday’s slate, and Oakland Coliseum is expected to play hitter-friendly with warm weather. THE BAT X assigns a 57% probability to the over, yielding +$22.98 expected value and signaling trouble for Rodon in DFS cash builds.

Zola advised giving Ranger Suarez another shot after the left-hander was rocked for 7 ER in 3.2 IP against Arizona earlier in the week. He pointed out Suarez still fanned six in that start and now faces a Guardians lineup with a 24.5% K-rate versus southpaws. Progressive Field plays neutral for power, and Suarez’s projected line (5.7 IP, 2.6 ER, 5.6 K, 51% win odds) lands him inside the top-15 Saturday SPs in ESPN formats.

Todd Zola said AJ Smith-Shawver is a strong Saturday streamer after flirting with a no-hitter his last time out (7.0 hitless innings, 8.0 IP total). Despite four walks and only five strikeouts in that outing, Zola likes the matchup against a Pittsburgh offense that ranks bottom-five in wOBA and ISO. PNC Park further suppresses power, and the Braves are solid road favorites, which boosts Smith-Shawver’s win equity in standard fantasy scoring.

Todd Zola recommended streaming Shane Smith after noting the rookie has added a changeup that is already generating whiffs. Smith draws a home start against a Marlins lineup that sits below league average in wOBA and strikes out 24.5% of the time versus right-handed pitching. The weather profile at Guaranteed Rate Field (warm temps, mild wind) is pitcher-friendly per THE BAT X, and Smith’s projected line (5.1 IP, 2.2 ER, 5.3 K, 50% win probability) makes him viable in 10-team leagues.

Derek Carty’s THE BAT X model likes betting OVER 7.5 Ks for Cole Ragans at -100. Ragans’ 94.9 mph average heater sits in the 83rd percentile among starters, and Boston’s projected lineup whiffs 25.3% versus lefties. THE BAT X gives the prop a 58% hit rate and +$16.92 expected value, making it Carty’s top strikeout play of the day.

Zola told readers to keep Corbin Burnes on the bench and off DFS rosters. Burnes returns from a missed turn with shoulder inflammation and his strikeout rate has fallen four percentage points year over year while his sinker is down 1 mph. Facing the Dodgers’ top-three offense in Chase Field, THE BAT X projects only 5.7 IP and 5.8 K with elevated blow-up risk, placing Burnes outside Zola’s 'circle of trust' for the weekend.

Derek Carty endorsed the NRFI (No Run First Inning) at -135 in Giants @ Cubs, giving it a 59% hit rate and $3.79 expected value. THE BAT X accounts for a steady inbound wind, 58-degree temperatures, and modest offenses on both sides, projecting a 3.24 ERA environment for the opening frame. With Ben Brown’s recent control gains and San Francisco’s average patience, plus a competent Giants starter, Carty sees the conditions aligning for a scoreless first inning.

Derek Carty advised taking UNDER 5.5 strikeouts on Jose Berrios at -140. THE BAT X projects a 35% chance of six or more punch-outs, translating to a 65% win probability and +$15.06 expected value on the under. Berrios’ current 7.97 K/9 outpaces his true-talent 7.51 K/9, suggesting recent positive variance. With the Angels owning a middling whiff rate and the game in a neutral strikeout environment, Carty expects regression to pull Berrios below the 6-K threshold.

Derek Carty recommended betting Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 home runs at +500. THE BAT X assigns a 20% probability—implying fair odds near +400—and a $21.62 expected value per $100 wager. Carty highlighted that Sutter Health Park ranks as the fifth-best stadium for right-handed homers under Wednesday’s weather conditions. Rooker’s 15.2% barrel rate and 92.7-mph average exit velocity amplify the park boost, making the +500 line one of the slate’s most mispriced power props.

Todd Zola spotlighted Vinnie Pasquantino as a prime streaming bat against rookie right-hander Jonathan Cannon. THE BAT X projects a .327 wOBA for Kansas City lefties Wednesday, and Pasquantino’s 11% walk rate and 44% hard-hit rate make him the top beneficiary. Cannon offers league-average stuff at best and hands the ball to a bottom-tier White Sox bullpen. Even though the Royals rank fourth-worst in runs per game, Zola expects their middle of the order—Pasquantino, Michael Massey and Kyle Isbel—to deliver value in daily leagues and DFS cash builds.

Todd Zola advised sitting or fading Tyler Mahle at Fenway. Mahle’s sparkling 1.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP ride an unsustainable home-run suppression streak—zero long balls in 37.2 innings. ERA estimators hover near 4.00, signaling heavy regression. Facing a Red Sox lineup that owns one of MLB’s highest home OPS marks in a park that boosts right-handed power, Mahle is a blow-up risk. Zola warned season-long managers to bench him and DFS players to steer clear until the correction arrives.

Todd Zola urged managers to stream Tanner Houck despite the righty’s gaudy 6.38 ERA. Houck’s line is skewed by one April meltdown in Tampa (11 ER, 2.1 IP); remove that outing and he sports a 3.93 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 29 strikeouts in 34.1 innings. He now faces a Rangers offense that ranks next-to-last in runs per game. Zola highlighted Houck’s 52% ground-ball rate and solid walk suppression as factors that should allow him to work deep and chip away at the inflated ERA. The soft matchup at Fenway makes Houck a viable streamer and salary-relief DFS play.

Todd Zola recommended firing up Ben Brown against the Giants. The rookie right-hander owns 35 strikeouts in 31.1 innings with only three homers allowed; walks (14) have been the lone wart. Zola pointed out that Brown has tightened his command—just one walk over his last 9.2 innings and zero in his most recent six-frame start. San Francisco’s lineup pairs below-average power with an above-average K rate, and THE BAT X grades Wednesday’s Wrigley conditions as a 3.24 ERA environment for the average pitcher. If Brown’s improved control sticks, Zola sees SP2 upside for daily leagues and a ceiling play in DFS tournaments.

Todd Zola said Michael Wacha should be locked into fantasy lineups and DFS builds on Wednesday. Wacha has delivered back-to-back quality starts and now draws a home date with the White Sox, a club averaging the second-fewest runs in baseball and posting worse numbers on the road. While Wacha’s strikeout rate is middling, Zola emphasized his elite command, 1.7 BB/9 over his last four outings, and ability to work 6+ innings, traits that secure both QS and win equity. With Kauffman Stadium suppressing power and Chicago’s lineup scuffling, Zola projected a third quality start and labeled Wacha the slate’s safest low-rostered streamer.

THE BAT X model from Derek Carty priced the Giants @ Cubs NO-RUN-FIRST-INNING (NRFI) at –130 with a 57% probability, yielding +$0.96 expected value. Both offenses rank bottom-10 in first-inning wOBA, while projected starters Landen Roupp and Matthew Boyd have combined for sub-.290 xwOBA the first time through the order. Cool Wrigley Field temps and a slight in-blowing breeze further favor early goose eggs.

Derek Carty recommended betting Griffin Canning UNDER 4.5 strikeouts at –160. THE BAT X projects only 3.7 Ks (68% hit rate, +$16.83 EV) because: 1) Canning’s current 9.00 K/9 outpaces his true-talent 8.15 K/9 by 0.85, indicating luck that should regress, 2) Chase Field suppresses punch-outs (27th in MLB for Ks), and 3) Arizona’s lineup owns the league’s fourth-lowest whiff rate versus righties.

Using THE BAT X model, Derek Carty flagged Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 home runs at +800 as Monday’s highest expected-value long-shot. The projection gives a 13% chance (fair odds +669) thanks largely to the day’s warmest forecast—82°—which historically inflates HR rates. With elevated temperature reducing air density and aiding carry, Carty’s model pegs the prop at +$16.91 EV per $100 staked.

Todd Zola advised benching Braves bats like Marcell Ozuna in daily leagues because Atlanta collectively struggles against breaking and off-speed pitches—exactly what Brady Singer leans on. Against those pitch types, Ozuna owns a .248 OPS this season, Michael Harris II sits at .281, while Ozzie Albies (.569) and Matt Olson (.571) are only marginally better. With Singer’s command-first profile and a neutralized Truist Park weather forecast, Zola sees limited upside for the normally potent Braves lineup.

Todd Zola recommended scooping up Lars Nootbaar (available in roughly 70% of ESPN leagues) for Monday’s home date with rookie right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski and a Pirates bullpen graded a C– by THE BAT X. Busch Stadium is expected to feature warm hitting weather, and St. Louis owns a 4.9 implied run total. Zola also mentioned Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II as widely available Cards who can exploit the matchup, but singled out Nootbaar’s .365 career OBP versus righties as the safest plug-and-play.

Todd Zola urged fantasy players to sit Sandy Alcantara even though the former Cy Young winner is still rostered in over half of ESPN leagues. Alcantara was torched for seven runs in 2⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last week and now gets the same Dodgers lineup in Miami. With L.A. ranking top-3 in both OBP and HR rate, plus Alcantara’s diminished 7.8% swinging-strike rate, Zola warns that the matchup projects as the worst on Monday’s slate (THE BAT X would peg an average pitcher for a 5.18 ERA here).

Todd Zola highlighted Shane Smith as a streaming target thanks to a cushy home matchup with Kansas City. The Rule-5 right-hander has surprised with a 2.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 32⅓ innings, and while a 4.48 xFIP screams over-performance, Zola pointed out that Smith’s heavy-ground-ball approach (54% GB) and stingy HR rate should keep the bottom from falling out. The Royals carry the fourth-lowest wOBA versus righties, so Zola believes Smith can extend the good fortune for at least one more turn and steal a cheap win for fantasy managers.

Todd Zola said Matthew Boyd is still worth a one-day stream in season-long leagues even though the veteran’s tidy 2.70 ERA is propped up by luck (1.44 WHIP, 4.40 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA and a .330 BABIP). Zola noted that regression should come eventually, but it is unlikely to bite hard Monday because Boyd gets a home start against a Giants lineup that owns one of MLB’s worst wOBAs versus left-handed pitching. With Wrigley’s forecast suppressing offense and Chicago installed as –150 favorites, Zola expects five-plus innings and a chance at a win, making Boyd usable in 10-team formats.

Carty advised taking Sean Burke UNDER 4.5 strikeouts at -150. THE BAT X shows a 65% hit rate and a $13.65 expected value because Guaranteed Rate Field grades as the fourth-worst stadium for strikeouts, suppressing K upside even for power arms.

While Zola is fading Kikuchi in fantasy, Carty likes the OVER 6.5 strikeouts at +115. THE BAT X puts the over at 49% with a modest $4.88 EV, pointing to weather data showing Thursday’s temperature/humidity combo is the seventh-best for generating whiffs on the slate.

Carty suggested a YRFI wager (run in the 1st inning) at -100 for Red Sox @ Blue Jays. THE BAT X gives a 50% probability, essentially a coin flip, but the even money price and the potency of both offenses in a homer-friendly park make it his preferred YRFI of the day.

Carty recommended betting Daulton Varsho OVER 0.5 HR at +550. THE BAT X pegs a 17% chance (EV $11.28) because Varsho’s extreme fly-ball tendencies line up beautifully against Boston starter Tanner Houck, an extreme ground-ball pitcher. That batted-ball mismatch, paired with the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, creates a juicy payout opportunity.

Carty’s third home-run prop is Jarren Duran OVER 0.5 HR at +550. THE BAT X assigns a 16% success rate ($7.12 EV). The system ranks Rogers Centre as the second-best park for boosting homers to left-handed hitters, giving Duran’s pull-side power a significant park upgrade.

Zola warned fantasy managers away from starting Yusei Kikuchi on Thursday. The left-hander briefly looked like he was exiting his early-season funk but got shelled in his most recent outing. He now faces a Detroit lineup that ranks 11th in wOBA when a southpaw is on the bump. Given the matchup and Kikuchi’s volatility, Zola would leave him on the bench or your waiver wire.

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty flagged Triston Casas OVER 0.5 HR at +550 as Thursday’s top value. The model gives an 18% dinger probability, translating to a $15.44 expected value on a $1 bet. Carty’s key angle: Rogers Centre has the 10th-shallowest center-field wall in MLB, boosting power for left-handed bats like Casas.

Tyler Mahle’s surface stats look shiny—a 1.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP through six starts—yet Zola highlighted his underlying 4.01 xFIP and 4.34 SIERA that paint him as merely league average. He now gets an Oakland offense that makes a lot of contact and owns an above-average HR rate, the exact profile that has historically given Mahle trouble. Zola recommends sitting or even cutting Mahle before the regression monster shows up.

Zola suggested dusting off Justin Verlander for a spot start. Although the future Hall of Famer owns an ugly 5.36 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over his last 23 starts (121 IP, 102 K), he has logged back-to-back quality starts against weak opponents. Thursday he gets another cupcake: the Rockies travel to Oracle Park with the fourth-worst team wOBA and the single highest strikeout rate in baseball. Park and opponent put Verlander on the short list of streaming targets who could deliver six strong innings and a win.

Todd Zola advised plugging Casey Mize in as a Thursday streamer even though the right-hander is riding some unsustainably good luck. Zola noted Mize’s .238 BABIP and sky-high 94.5% strand rate are sure to normalize, but the underlying skills have genuinely improved since he unveiled a new cutter, leaned harder on his splitter and shelved some four-seamers and sliders. The new mix has produced a career-best K-BB% and softer contact. Regression can strike at any time, yet Zola is willing to roll the dice because the matchup is pristine: the Angels own the sixth-worst wOBA and the second-highest strikeout rate against righties. If you need a one-day arm in standard 10-team formats, Mize is his top recommendation.

Zola recommended deploying Tampa Bay’s left-handed bats, highlighting Jonathan Aranda (and Brandon Lowe) against Padres rookie righty Randy Vasquez in Petco Park. Vasquez has allowed a .360 wOBA and 1.5 HR/9 to left-handed hitters in limited big-league work, while Aranda owns a career .370 OBP and .200 ISO versus righties. Even though Petco suppresses right-handed power, it plays neutral for lefties, giving Aranda enough park factor plus platoon edge to warrant a Sunday stream.

For hitter streams, Zola circled Noelvi Marte atop a stack of Reds (Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Gavin Lux) heading into Coors Field against Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner. Feltner has served up a 5.00-plus ERA and a .500 slugging percentage to righties in Denver, and Coors is MLB’s premier run-scoring environment. With the thin air boosting batting-average on balls in play and extra-base power, Zola expects Marte to capitalize on both run-production and stolen-base chances, labeling him a must-start in any daily lineup format.

Zola warned managers not to chase Jose Quintana’s sparkling 0.96 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 18 2⁄3 innings. Quintana has struck out only nine hitters, and an unsustainable .236 BABIP plus a 96.6% strand rate mask his true talent. Advanced metrics (4.23 xFIP, 4.73 SIERA) signal imminent regression, and Sunday’s opponent, St. Louis, can stack right-handed bats. Zola suggested looking elsewhere for a streamer rather than betting on Quintana’s smoke-and-mirrors start to continue.

Todd Zola advised rolling out Tylor Megill for Sunday’s start in Washington. Megill owns a 27.8% strikeout rate that dwarfs the league average, while the Nationals rank bottom-five in walk rate, mitigating Megill’s own 10.2% walk problem. With veterans Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas still shelved, Megill has quietly produced a 3-2 record and is reinforcing a rotation that helped the Mets enter the weekend with MLB’s best record. Zola expects the whiffs to outweigh any free passes against an impatient Nationals lineup, making Megill a solid streaming choice in 10-team leagues.

Zola recommended streaming Jordan Hicks despite his ugly 6.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP through five turns. Underlying numbers paint a kinder picture—ERA estimators sit closer to 4.00—and he’ll work in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park against a Texas offense averaging the fewest runs per game in baseball. The Rangers’ walk rate is second-lowest in MLB and they remain without Corey Seager, limiting their on-base threats. In Zola’s view, those contextual edges turn Hicks into a worthwhile gamble for fantasy managers needing innings and potential win equity on Sunday.

Zola highlighted Mets bats as prime streaming options in Washington, singling out Brandon Nimmo but also mentioning Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil. The Mets face rookie Brad Lord, whom THE BAT X projects for a 5.20 ERA and sub-18% K-rate. Nationals Park boosts left-handed power by 5%, enhancing Nimmo’s leadoff appeal. With Lord’s minor-league walk issues (10% BB-rate at Double-A) and a shaky Nats bullpen behind him, Zola expects plenty of on-base chances and run-scoring upside for daily-lineup managers hunting short-term offense.

Todd Zola advised sitting — and potentially temporarily dropping — Mitch Keller for his road turn against the Dodgers. Los Angeles owns MLB’s top ISO (.197) and the second-highest walk rate, a brutal combination for Keller’s sometimes shaky command. Zola noted Keller’s next scheduled start (home vs Padres) is more palatable, so managers in shallow leagues can cut him now, stream the roster spot, and reclaim him next week when FAB runs.

Zola urged fantasy managers to start Hunter Greene at Coors Field even though most ranking models fade any pitcher there. He referenced Tristan H. Cockcroft’s research showing the 2025 Rockies carry a historically poor offense (league-low .274 wOBA, 77 wRC+ despite altitude). Greene’s 31% strikeout rate and 98 mph average fastball give him the raw stuff to neutralize Colorado, and with Cincinnati favored he projects well for a win. Zola admitted overriding his own rankings is rare but called this matchup ‘the exception that proves the rule.’

Todd Zola said Jeffrey Springs should be scooped up and started this weekend after being cleared from a minor hamstring cramp. Springs gets the visiting White Sox, a club averaging the fewest runs per game in MLB and striking out at an above-average clip. Sacramento’s park is neutral for run scoring, and Springs has shown swing-and-miss stuff (29% career K-rate) that should play even better against Chicago’s free-swinging lineup. Zola framed him as an ideal spot starter for 10-team formats where he’s available in almost 90% of ESPN leagues.

Although Pablo Lopez comes off the IL to face an Angels lineup with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate, Todd Zola said he would look elsewhere in leagues with games-started limits. Lopez logged only 4 2⁄3 innings in his lone rehab outing, and the Twins’ deep bullpen gives Minnesota little incentive to push him. Zola expects 5-ish innings at most, limiting both win equity and strikeout volume.

Todd Zola said Jeimer Candelario is a savvy corner-infield plug-in for Friday through Sunday. The switch-hitter owns a .203 ISO from the right side since 2023 and gets to attack left-handed Kyle Freeland plus Colorado’s shaky bullpen in baseball’s most hitter-friendly park.

Even though rostered in fewer than 25% of ESPN leagues, Austin Hays made Zola’s streaming list because of the same juicy Coors matchup. The right-handed outfielder owns a career .280/.325/.467 line versus lefties and could benefit from Cincinnati’s high-octane context in Denver, making him a sneaky fifth-outfielder play.

Zola pointed to Spencer Steer’s multi-position eligibility and top-30 hard-hit rate as reasons to scoop him up before the Reds’ Coors Field series. Facing a contact-oriented lefty in Kyle Freeland, Steer’s line-drive approach should translate into extra-base hits and run-scoring chances all weekend.

Zola highlighted Noelvi Marte as a widely available right-handed bat to stream this weekend. The Reds open a series at Coors Field against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, giving Marte the platoon edge plus the altitude bump. With everyday playing time and gap-to-gap power, Marte is poised to rack up runs and RBI in fantasy lineups.

Zola urged fantasy managers to sit Zac Gallen on Friday. The right-hander’s strike-throwing rate has cratered to 58.2%, fueling a 10.7% walk rate that is nearly double his career norm. With the Braves’ offense heating up—one of MLB’s most productive lineups over the past week—Zola views Gallen’s uncharacteristic control problems at hitter-friendly Chase Field as a recipe for ratio pain.

Todd Zola advised streaming Matthew Liberatore, noting the left-hander’s 24 K / 2 BB line through 25 innings and a strike rate that has jumped to 67.3% from a career 63.2%. Liberatore has delivered at least six frames in all four starts with three quality starts despite no velocity bump, thanks largely to trading some sinkers for changeups and relentlessly pounding the zone. He draws a Brewers lineup that owns a below-average walk rate, giving the southpaw an ideal opportunity to extend his breakout.

Todd Zola said Luis Severino should be scooped up and streamed Friday because of a cushy home matchup with the White Sox, a club averaging the second-fewest runs per game in MLB. Severino has rediscovered his form after two rough outings, allowing only one earned run over eight innings in his most recent start at Milwaukee. With Chicago’s lineup short on both power and patience, Zola expects Severino’s revamped fastball/slider combo to play up and give fantasy managers a strong chance at strikeouts and a win.

Todd Zola recommended adding Matt McLain for the weekend because the Reds second baseman/shortstop will take his aggressive pull-side power to Coors Field versus left-hander Kyle Freeland. McLain’s career .534 slugging versus southpaws could spike further in Denver’s thin air, making him a prime middle-infield streamer.

Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projects a 66% hit rate for UNDER 2.5 earned runs (-160) on Drew Rasmussen. Chase Field grades as the worst HR venue (No. 30) in Carty’s park factors, and Arizona’s contact-oriented lineup ranks just 18th in ISO. Rasmussen’s heavy cutter/slider mix keeps the ball on the ground, amplifying the park’s suppressive effect. The bet carries a +$12.33 expected value per unit risked.