ESPN

Derek Carty recommends betting the over on Joe Ryan's 5.5 strikeout total (-160 odds) as one of the day's high-value pitcher prop bets. The projection assigns Ryan a 69% chance of exceeding this number, providing +$18.18 in expected value. Ryan benefits significantly from a dominating platoon advantage against a Houston Astros lineup projected to feature eight right-handed hitters, positioning him nicely to surpass this strikeout projection.

Derek Carty identifies Charlie Morton (over 5.5 Ks, -120) as an appealing strikeout prop bet due to Boston's susceptibility to high-K performances. Morton is projected with a 60% likelihood to eclipse 5.5 strikeouts, yielding a $12.88 expected value. The presence of strikeout-heavy hitters Triston Casas, Trevor Story, and Connor Wong in Boston's lineup significantly boosts Morton's strikeout potential.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pinpointed Diamondbacks hitter Gabriel Moreno as an excellent streaming option in DFS against veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. While Carrasco making the Yankees rotation is a compelling feel-good story, Cockcroft notes that his roster spot comes from team desperation rather than his merit, evidenced by a troubling 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2019. Cockcroft believes Moreno, along with teammates Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith, are set up for success facing Carrasco's shaky pitching and offers a clear actionable DFS recommendation.

Projected by Derek Carty's THE BAT X, Triston Casas presents an enticing betting opportunity with an over 0.5 HR at (+800) odds, granting a +$48.59 expected value. Strong wind blowing out toward center field at 10.6 mph in the Red Sox vs Orioles matchup creates an advantageous home run environment. Casas's odds offer great profitability due to this wind-aided hitting condition.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pointed out Nestor Cortes as a potential streaming candidate despite his disastrous season opener against the Yankees, which included surrendering five home runs and issuing five walks. Cockcroft attributed the poor performance partially to first-game jitters against his former team. Returning to Milwaukee (American Family Field), a park that suppresses hits and inflates strikeouts despite being friendly to home runs, provides Cortes an excellent bounce-back scenario. Given the sparse selection of starters on Thursday's slate, Cortes presents high strikeout upside if his first outing proves an anomaly.

Tristan H. Cockcroft recommended targeting bullpen arms rather than risky starters on Thursday's slate. Jordan Romano, available in more than half of ESPN leagues, was specifically highlighted. The Phillies offer Romano a favorable environment for save opportunities given Thursday's matchup scenario against Colorado, which offers a projected average ERA of 3.55 for pitchers. Romano and other relievers like Trevor Megill and A.J. Puk represent better and safer streaming alternatives compared to thin starting pitcher options.

Tristan H. Cockcroft identified Merrill Kelly as a viable pitching stream despite the challenging road matchup against the Yankees. Though Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly park, Cockcroft highlighted Kelly’s ability to limit home runs, evidenced by having the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 450 innings since 2022. The Diamondbacks pitcher faces a potent New York lineup led by Aaron Judge, amplifying the risk, yet his history of suppressing long balls makes him worth consideration on a difficult slate with limited streaming options.

Derek Carty advises betting under 4.5 strikeouts (-110) for Merrill Kelly given his weak fastball velocity (91.9 mph, ranking in the 24th percentile among starters) and challenging opponent in the Yankees. Kelly's limited swing-and-miss capability against a potent New York Yankees offense caps his strikeout upside, making the under bet a strategically profitable move (+$7.96 EV, with 56% probability to hit).

With the Cardinals starting catcher Ivan Herrera, who is known for his poor arm strength, ESPN Fantasy identified Twins runners Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Byron Buxton as ideal streamer candidates to capitalize on stolen-base opportunities. Given Herrera's defensive shortcomings, these players are likely to aggressively run, providing fantasy managers crucial early-season stolen base production.

ESPN Fantasy sees Luis Severino as a favorable streaming option thanks to his matchup and venue. Severino takes the mound at T-Mobile Park, known as one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly stadiums, comparable in extremity for pitchers as Coors Field is for hitters. Additionally, he will face a Mariners offense that ESPN Fantasy described as not particularly formidable, providing Severino a solid opportunity for good fantasy stats.

ESPN Fantasy highlighted Sean Burke as a worthwhile streaming option on MLB Opening Day. Burke's start is at home in Chicago, where cooler weather conditions generally favor pitching. Importantly, Burke faces an advantageous matchup against the Angels, whose projected lineup ranks among the weakest in the American League, increasing Burke's prospects for a productive fantasy outing.

ESPN Fantasy advised against pitching Cubs left-hander Justin Steele, who struggled heavily in his last start during the Tokyo Series, mainly because he missed significant spring training time due to illness. Steele remains insufficiently stretched out entering this start, placing him at risk. Adding to the concern, his matchup is daunting, facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had MLB's best offense last season and are expected to be among the elite offenses again in 2025. Considering these factors, Steele is labeled as a fantasy baseball pitcher to avoid.

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty recommended betting Sonny Gray to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 odds) against the Minnesota Twins. This recommendation hinges on the Twins lineup, projected by the model to carry the fourth-highest strikeout tendency (24.5% underlying K rate) on the day. The bet is given a robust 64% chance of hitting, providing substantial expected value of $14.08.

Derek Carty's THE BAT X identifies San Francisco Giants hitter Wilmer Flores as a good home run betting opportunity. Flores demonstrates an extreme pull-hitter profile, pulling 37.8% of his flyballs (top 5 percentile in league), and is playing in Cincinnati with the league's seventh-shallowest fences in left field. The conditions yield a 12% projected chance of a home run, making betting over 0.5 HR (+750 odds) carry an expected value of $1.66.

Derek Carty's THE BAT X model identified value in betting Mookie Betts to hit over 0.5 home runs due to favorable wind conditions. Winds blowing out to right field at 9.2 mph provide the day's third-best hitting conditions, translating to a 14% chance of Betts hitting a homer with a high expected value of $4.63.

Derek Carty identified value in betting Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates at +120 odds. With Alcantara getting favorable handedness matchups against six opposing hitters, the projected likelihood of him exceeding the strikeout total is set at 51%, translating to significant expected value ($11.43 EV).

Derek Carty from THE BAT X strongly recommended betting Blake Snell over 6.5 strikeouts at -160 odds against Detroit, citing Snell's elite strikeout skills that rank him as the fifth-best starting pitcher this year for strikeout talent according to the projections. This prop bet has a high 65% likelihood of hitting, and offers a high expected value of over $10.17.

According to THE BAT X projections from Derek Carty, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds strong home run potential, projected to have a 19% chance of hitting a homer against the Orioles. Betting the over on his 0.5 HR line (+450 odds) carries positive expected value of $2.96, driven strongly by Guerrero's home-field advantage enhancing his hitting metrics.

Mark Schlabach identified Daniel Berger as a notable player to watch closely at THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting his strong history at TPC Sawgrass and excellent form since recovering from a prolonged back injury. Berger, who missed more than 18 months due to injury, has quickly recaptured form upon return, impressing with consistency and ball striking. His historical performances at TPC Sawgrass have consistently been strong, positioning him to leverage his comfort with the course into competitive contention. Schlabach's analysis suggests Berger is actively undervalued, representing an intriguing potential breakout or sleeper candidate for bettors and DFS players this week.

Paolo Uggetti expressed that Xander Schauffele is poised for a strong performance at THE PLAYERS Championship after successfully overcoming an injury-related layoff. Schauffele, recovering from an acute intercostal rib strain, returned at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, quickly shaking off rust to make the cut after an opening-round 77 and ultimately finishing strong with a final-round 69. Importantly, Schauffele reported no lingering effects from the injury following the four competitive rounds. Uggetti emphasized Schauffele's determination, noting his newfound confidence and expectations after winning two majors last season. Given Schauffele's proven ability to perform under pressure at significant events, he appears well-prepared to quickly regain his place among the elite and contend strongly at TPC Sawgrass.

Mark Schlabach recommended Christiaan Bezuidenhout as a sleeper pick for THE PLAYERS Championship, citing his exceptional putting ability and a proven history at TPC Sawgrass. Bezuidenhout tied for 13th in each of his last two THE PLAYERS Championship appearances. In the 2024 tournament, he notably ranked fourth in strokes gained approach (1.744) and added solid putting numbers (.464). Recent form is also strong, with Bezuidenhout tying for fourth at the WM Phoenix Open and 19th at the challenging Arnold Palmer Invitational. His combination of strong recent play, excellent short game, and a history of comfort at the course positions him well to exceed expectations and be an actionable sleeper this week.

Paolo Uggetti highlighted Michael Kim as an undervalued sleeper at THE PLAYERS Championship, noting Kim's impressive rise from 155th to 52nd in the Official World Golf Ranking since the start of the year. Kim is playing arguably the best golf of his career, matching his elite junior days and strong college performances at UC Berkeley. After nearly seven years since his lone PGA Tour win at the 2018 John Deere Classic, Kim is trending upward significantly, particularly excelling at accurate ball striking. His strengths align especially well with TPC Sawgrass, which prioritizes accuracy over distance. Uggetti strongly recommended keeping an eye on Kim's continued breakout, positioning him as a smart value play at the event.

Paolo Uggetti believes Collin Morikawa is primed for success at THE PLAYERS Championship, highlighting Morikawa's elite iron play and precise ball striking as ideal fits for TPC Sawgrass. Despite a frustrating second-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational—which Morikawa attributed to missing key putts down the stretch—he has been exceptionally consistent this season, ranking 10th in strokes gained approach (.908) and 27th in putting (.515). Historically a strong player in final rounds this season (17th in scoring average at 68 compared to 127th last season), Morikawa expressed frustration at coming up short recently but emphasized minor adjustments rather than a complete overhaul. With determination and confidence, Morikawa appears highly motivated to break through for his first PGA Tour win since the Zozo Championship in October 2023.