Heath urged dynasty and ultra-deep best-ball managers to stash UDFA Jalen Coker. Coker’s rookie 1D/RR beat Marvin Harrison Jr. and ranked inside the top-10 of the past two classes, while his 1.83 YPRR topped the rookie seasons of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London. In eight games with a 70% route share he averaged 54 receiving yards, a better per-game line than several eventual WR1s posted as rookies. Although draft capital is nonexistent, Heath’s research shows it loses predictive power once a Day 2+ receiver gets on the field. He believes Coker can overtake veteran slot man Adam Thielen in Carolina and is a zero-cost flier worth holding.

Ryan Heath views Courtland Sutton as a massive deal near WR28. Sutton already finished 2024 top-12 in 1D/RR (0.112) and expected fantasy points (15.6). Once rookie QB Bo Nix’s accuracy leapt from near league-worst to near league-best after Week 9, Sutton’s 1D/RR vaulted to 0.136 (5th) and his production to 17.4 FPG (WR11). Heath highlighted Sean Payton’s system and Nix’s late-season progression as proof that Sutton functioned as a fantasy WR1 down the stretch. With continuity in scheme and chemistry, Sutton profiles as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 who is priced as a middling WR3 in best-ball drafts.

Heath labeled Josh Downs a "smash" at his roughly WR48 cost. Downs ranked 10th in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th in targets per route (30%), plus posted a top-5 Average Separation Score from the slot. Indianapolis ran 11-personnel on 70.7% of snaps (10th-highest), so slot usage won’t cap volume. The bigger upgrade is under center: likely Week 1 starter Daniel Jones finished 2024 top-10 in catchable-throw rate, whereas Anthony Richardson was last, specifically struggling on the horizontal-breaking routes where Downs earns 41% of his targets. Downs averaged 15.5 FPG (WR15 pace) in games with Joe Flacco, showing what accurate quarterbacking can unlock. Heath is pounding the draft button at his price.

Heath highlighted Jauan Jennings as a screaming value at his Underdog WR35 price. Jennings finished 2024 top-10 in both 1D/RR (0.119) and yards per route run (2.47) while earning a 33.7% first-read share and 17.9 fantasy points per game in the nine contests that Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk missed. With Samuel traded and Aiyuk likely to open 2025 on PUP, the target competition is similar. Jennings also posted a top-20 Average Separation Score, out-separating big-name X receivers like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins. Heath reminded readers that nearly 15% of historical wide-receiver breakouts occur in Year 4 and is drafting Jennings confidently as a WR3 who owns WR2 upside.

Ryan Heath called Puka Nacua the most underrated Round-1 selection in 2025 drafts. Nacua’s 0.170 first-downs-per-route-run (1D/RR) ranked 2nd among all seasons in the Fantasy Points Data Suite, more than double Cooper Kupp’s rate. In the nine 2024 games where he wasn’t injured or ejected he averaged 10.7 targets, a ridiculous 44.6% first-read target share, and 104.9 receiving yards per game — all figures that would have led the league. After staying healthy for all 17 games as a rookie, Heath believes durability concerns are overblown and ranks Nacua as a top-5 overall pick, noting he’s still available in the back half of Round 1 on Underdog.

Ryan Heath is back in on Jayden Reed now that his ADP has fallen two rounds. Reed’s 7.33 YAC per reception ranked 4th among 50 qualifiers, and his 33.3% designed-target rate led the NFL. He averaged 18.3 FPG in the five games before Jordan Love’s groin injury. A healthy Love drove a +3.6% pass rate over expectation (would have ranked 7th), versus ‑8.2% after the injury. With Christian Watson rehabbing an ACL and target magnet Dontayvion Wicks possibly demoted for drops, rookie field-stretcher Matthew Golden (9th-percentile college TPRR) may actually funnel more looks to Reed. Heath sees massive upside at the new, cheaper price.

Ryan Heath is fading DK Metcalf at WR25 because Arthur Smith offenses do not feed wideouts. No Smith-coached receiver has eclipsed 115 targets, and Metcalf has never topped 1,000 yards or 13 FPG in a sub-115-target year. He profiles as a ‘big play merchant’—72% of such players see YPRR regression—and must now rely on 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers, who ranked 19th in deep-ball completion rate (38.6%) last season. Heath calls the entire Steelers passing attack an easy avoid.

Ryan Heath urged caution on Cooper Kupp even at a WR49 ADP. Kupp dropped below the critical 0.10 1D/RR marker that has signaled late-career decline 68% of the time and ranked just 51st of 69 qualifiers in Average Separation Score after Week 12. Now 33, he joins Klint Kubiak’s offense that ran 11-personnel only 33.8% of the time (31st) and posted a ‑2.0% pass rate over expectation. With slot snaps set to fall and lacking deep-threat juice, Heath prefers Josh Downs or Emeka Egbuka in the same range.

Ryan Heath is fading Xavier Worthy at his WR23 Underdog price. Worthy produced a first down on only 7.5% of routes (0.075 1D/RR), falling below the 0.085 threshold that historically yields just a 9% Year-2 hit rate. Meanwhile, Rashee Rice’s 0.123 rookie 1D/RR ranked 10th all-time, and legal experts now expect Rice to avoid a 2025 suspension. Heath believes Worthy’s low per-route efficiency plus target competition make him a poor bet to justify a top-25 receiver tag.

Ryan Heath highlighted Devaughn Vele as a near-free flyer. Vele’s 0.096 rookie 1D/RR ranks 16th among first-year receivers since 2021, sandwiched between DeVonta Smith and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Despite running only 53% of Denver’s routes, he finished second on the team in that metric. With Marvin Mims and third-round rookie Pat Bryant offering unproven competition, Heath sees a path for Vele to claim the primary slot job and provide unexpected spike weeks.

Ryan Heath recommended taking deep shots on Jalen Coker in dynasty and late-round best ball. As a rookie UDFA, Coker generated first downs more often than Marvin Harrison Jr. and posted a superior YPRR (1.83 vs 1.74). In eight games above a 70% route share he averaged 54 receiving yards—better rookie marks than Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Jayden Reed. Heath notes Coker could overtake 34-year-old Adam Thielen for slot snaps if his per-route efficiency continues.

Ryan Heath labeled Courtland Sutton a huge value at his ~WR28 price. Sutton finished 2024 top-12 in 1D/RR (0.112) and expected fantasy points (15.6 XFP/G). After rookie QB Bo Nix’s accuracy leaped from near worst to near best league-wide, Sutton’s post-Week-10 numbers jumped to 0.136 1D/RR (5th) and 17.4 FPG (11th)—true WR1 production. Heath believes a full season of improved quarterback play in Sean Payton’s system makes Sutton one of the most under-drafted receivers on Underdog.

Ryan Heath called Josh Downs a smash at his ~WR48 ADP. Downs ranked 10th in 1D/RR (0.114) and 4th in targets per route (30%) last year while finishing top-5 in Average Separation Score from the slot. The Colts ran 11-personnel on 70.7% of snaps (10th-highest), guaranteeing three-WR sets. Heath blamed Anthony Richardson’s inaccuracy on horizontal routes for suppressing production; Downs averaged 15.5 FPG with Joe Flacco. Week-1 starter Daniel Jones ranked top-10 in catchable throws per game in 2024, giving Downs a quarterback upgrade. Heath expects a target spike and is drafting him everywhere.

Ryan Heath advised drafting Jauan Jennings as a WR3 at his Underdog WR35 ADP. Jennings finished 2024 top-10 in both 1D/RR (0.119) and YPRR (2.47). With Deebo Samuel traded and Brandon Aiyuk expected to open the year on PUP, target competition is similar to the nine 2024 games in which Jennings averaged 17.9 fantasy points (WR8) on a 33.7% first-read target share. He also posted a top-20 Average Separation Score, out-pacing Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins. Heath noted that roughly 15% of historical WR breakouts occur in year four and believes Jennings’ profile shows his 2024 surge was no fluke.

Ryan Heath said Puka Nacua remains the most underrated first-round pick in 2025 drafts. Nacua’s 0.170 first-downs-per-route-run ranked 2nd among all seasons in Fantasy Points Data history and was more than double Cooper Kupp’s rate. In nine healthy, non-ejection games he averaged 10.7 targets, a 44.6% first-read share, and 104.9 receiving yards per game—numbers that would have led the league in 2024. After handling a full 17-game rookie workload despite college durability concerns, Heath views him as a top-5 overall fantasy pick who is still slipping to the back half of round one on Underdog.

Graham Barfield labeled Dak Prescott a screaming value at his QB14 ADP (114 overall). Even after a hamstring-marred 2024, Prescott still ranks QB8 in fantasy points per game (18.8), QB6 in passing yards per game (259.8), and QB9 in touchdown rate (5.5 %) across the last two seasons. Before the injury, he delivered five straight top-12 fantasy finishes. Barfield highlighted Dak’s spike-week profile: 29 % of his starts since 2023 have been top-5 QB weeks, the sixth-best rate in the NFL and only two percentage points behind Joe Burrow. Efficiency versus man coverage remains elite—8.1 YPA last season and 9.2 YPA the year prior. Dallas upgraded the receiver room with contested-catch maven George Pickens, giving Prescott an added downfield weapon. Barfield wants to take advantage of a market discount and load up on Dak as a mid-round quarterback in Best Ball tournaments.

Graham Barfield urged drafters to scoop Brock Purdy at his 104 ADP (Round 9), noting he has quietly produced top-12 weekly fantasy finishes in 61 % of starts over the past two seasons—sixth-best in the league and sandwiched between names that cost two or three rounds more. Purdy is coming off a season where only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow were more consistent. Barfield tacked on an extra boost by spotlighting the 49ers’ 2025 slate, which owns the league’s easiest strength of schedule by opponents’ projected wins and the third-easiest schedule by adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With elite weapons and Kyle Shanahan’s efficiency, Barfield believes Purdy is mispriced and should be a core Best Ball exposure at 20 % or more.

Graham Barfield called Jayden Daniels his No. 1 quarterback target in Underdog Best Ball drafts at an ADP of 42, insisting the Round-4 price still underestimates Daniels’ asymmetric upside. Barfield reminded readers that Daniels’ 22.2 fantasy points per game as a rookie trails only Cam Newton all-time, and if you throw out the Week 7 ribs exit, Daniels actually produced 23.7 FPG—a threshold only 28 QB seasons have ever reached. The rookie averaged 52.4 rushing yards per game (third-highest for a rookie, 11th-best in any season), giving him an elite floor/ceiling combo. He also posted a 78 % catchable-pass rate, out-pacing fellow dual threats Jalen Hurts (75 %), Lamar Jackson (73 %), and Josh Allen (72 %). Barfield added a third layer of upside via volume: Kliff Kingsbury’s offense ranked 3rd in plays per game (68) and 8th in pace, marking Kingsbury’s fifth straight top-12 pace finish. The blend of elite rushing, pinpoint accuracy, and fast tempo makes Daniels a player Barfield wants on at least 20-22 % of his Best Ball Mania IV teams.

Heath is back in on Jayden Reed after a two-round ADP slide. Reed’s 7.33 yards after catch per reception ranked 4th of 50 qualifiers, and he led the league with a 33.3% designed-target rate. With Christian Watson rehabbing an ACL tear and target-earner Dontayvion Wicks possibly in the doghouse, rookie Matthew Golden could replace them as a low-TPRR field stretcher, opening even more middle-of-field looks for Reed. Green Bay posted a +3.6% PROE when Jordan Love was healthy (top-7), and Reed averaged 18.3 FPG across those contests. At his discounted price Heath sees WR2 upside for both season-long and best-ball drafters.

Ryan Heath is fading DK Metcalf at his WR25 ADP. Metcalf profiles as a classic "big-play merchant"—his YPRR outpaces his 1D/RR, a combination that regresses 72% of the time. Volume is the bigger killer: no receiver has ever eclipsed 115 targets in an Arthur Smith offense, and Metcalf failed to reach 1,000 yards or 13 FPG in either of his sub-115-target campaigns. Smith’s units have ranked bottom-7 in pass plays three straight seasons, and 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers managed only a 38.6% deep-ball completion rate last year. Heath sees little chance Metcalf accesses a ceiling worthy of his price tag.

Heath warned drafters not to be enticed by Cooper Kupp even at a modest WR49 cost. Kupp fell under the key 0.10 1D/RR age-cliff threshold in 2024, a marker that predicted decline 68% of the time among past elite WRs. His Average Separation Score dropped to 51st of 69 after Week 12, and he now joins Klint Kubiak’s Seattle attack that ranked 31st in 11-personnel usage, likely forcing Kupp outside more often. With Seattle already leaning run-heavy (-2.0% PROE) and Kupp turning 33 without the deep-speed profile of a Rashid Shaheed type, Heath prefers Josh Downs and Emeka Egbuka at similar prices.

Heath advised fading Xavier Worthy at his lofty WR23 Underdog ADP. Worthy’s rookie 1D/RR was a meager 0.075 (51st), well below the 0.085 threshold that historically predicts Year-2 success—only 9% of sub-0.085 rookies have reached 13 FPG the next season. Meanwhile teammate Rashee Rice, who logged a 0.123 1D/RR (2nd-best rookie mark ever), increasingly looks unlikely to be suspended in 2025. With Rice potentially active all year and Worthy’s per-route efficiency screaming regression, Heath sees little upside at the current price and is passing in both season-long and best-ball formats.