Pat Fitzmaurice cautioned against overdrafting Zay Flowers, placing him five WR spots below ECR. Baltimore ran on 52.5 percent of snaps last season—second only to Philadelphia—and that number may stay high with Derrick Henry joining Lamar Jackson. Flowers endured eight games with six or fewer targets and eight under 40 yards. Fitzmaurice thinks the Ravens’ run-heavy DNA will keep Flowers’ week-to-week output maddeningly inconsistent.

Pat Fitzmaurice slid D.J. Moore seven slots below consensus. Moore’s yardage fell from 1,364 to 966 even though he set a career high with 98 catches, averaging a career-low 9.9 YPC while failing to mesh with Caleb Williams. Fitzmaurice noted new HC Ben Johnson might improve that chemistry but pointed out the Bears added Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze and still have Cole Kmet, making Moore’s target share shakier than ever.

Pat Fitzmaurice moved Tyreek Hill four spots below ECR, noting a production drop from 1,799 yards in 2023 to 959 in 2024. The biggest culprit was Tua Tagovailoa’s intended air yards falling from 7.7 to 5.7 per attempt. Jonnu Smith’s exit may free up a few targets, but Hill is now 31, and Fitzmaurice doubts we can count on full seasons from either Hill or Tua. He expects a rebound, just not enough to pay off mid-second-round draft capital.

Pat Fitzmaurice warned that Rhamondre Stevenson’s best fantasy days may be behind him. Stevenson fell to a career-low 3.9 YPC in 2024, missed five games in 2023, and coughed up seven fumbles last season. New England spent a second-round pick on TreVeyon Henderson, and Fitzmaurice believes a 50/50 workload split is the ceiling for Stevenson in 2025. He has the veteran five RB slots below consensus.

Pat Fitzmaurice dropped Joe Mixon 10 spots below consensus, citing a worrisome checklist: an age-29 season, a foot injury that could wipe out training camp, potential passing-down competition from rookie Woody Marks, early-down siphoning by Nick Chubb, and one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Mixon’s four-year average of 1,377 scrimmage yards and 12.3 TDs isn’t enough to offset those storm clouds for Fitzmaurice, who is passing at ADP.

Pat Fitzmaurice advised fading David Montgomery at his low-end RB2 price. Montgomery saw 16.8 and 15.8 touches per game the past two seasons but shares the backfield with electric Jahmyr Gibbs, whose role Fitzmaurice expects to grow. Montgomery’s 25 rushing TDs over that span benefited from Detroit ranking first and fifth in scoring, a pace Fitzmaurice doubts will hold after OC Ben Johnson left for Chicago. He projects fewer than 15 touches and noticeable touchdown regression, labeling Montgomery an RB3.

Pat Fitzmaurice pushed Emeka Egbuka five spots above consensus because Chris Godwin is still recovering from a dislocated ankle and Jalen McMillan is expected to miss extended time with a neck injury. The rookie slot technician proved at Ohio State he can command targets alongside elite talent and owns the short-area quickness to rack up YAC. Fitzmaurice thinks the depleted depth chart could make Egbuka instantly fantasy-relevant.

Pat Fitzmaurice called Jaylen Waddle a classic buy-low following a 744-yard, 2-TD 2024 derailed by Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion. With Jonnu Smith gone to Pittsburgh, Waddle should log more slot snaps and absorb the easy targets that drove Smith’s PPR surge. Fitzmaurice reminded readers that Waddle led college football in yards per route run in 2020 and opened his NFL career with three straight 1,000-yard campaigns. He believes drafters are sleeping on Waddle’s ceiling.

Pat Fitzmaurice sees Calvin Ridley as a bargain WR3 who can post WR2 numbers now that first-round QB Cam Ward is in town. Ridley produced consecutive 1,000-yard seasons despite "gruesome quarterbacking" in Tennessee last year and has not missed a game since his gambling suspension. With no target competition for alpha duties, Fitzmaurice projects Ridley to surpass last season’s 120 looks and thrive on Ward’s aggressive down-field tendencies.

Pat Fitzmaurice ranked Tetairoa McMillan seven slots ahead of consensus, arguing that the No. 8 overall pick is "immediately Carolina’s No. 1 receiver." The 6'5" Arizona product posted back-to-back 1,300-yard college seasons and owns what Fitzmaurice calls a “planetary catch radius.” McMillan can play X or big slot, already understands how to beat zone, and should vacuum up targets on a roster otherwise short on proven pass catchers.

Pat Fitzmaurice said Tony Pollard is a draft target because Tyjae Spears is nursing a high-ankle sprain that should hand Pollard feature-back volume in September. Fitzmaurice acknowledged Pollard’s efficiency cratered once he left his change-of-pace role in Dallas (5.1 YPC and 6.3 yards/target across his first four seasons versus 4.1 YPC and 4.4 yards/target the last two), but he still finished RB22 and RB23 in points per game while handling heavier workloads. With little backfield competition until Spears is 100 percent, Fitzmaurice expects Pollard to log bell-cow snaps early and “get off to a fast start,” making him a value at his current ADP.

Tarracciano crossed Hunter Renfrow off draft lists after a mid-August hamstring strain erased his momentum in Carolina’s camp. Despite outplaying Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette early, Renfrow hasn’t played an NFL snap since 2023 (colitis). Even with Adam Thielen traded, Tarracciano now projects Renfrow to the practice squad at best, offering no reason to stash him in standard leagues.

Although Cole Kmet quietly finished TE8 in both 2022 and 2023, Tarracciano says the Bears’ decision to draft Colston Loveland 10th overall is a "death knell" for Kmet’s 2025 fantasy value. Even with improved offensive-line play and Caleb Williams under center, an expected heavy dose of 11 personnel plus a crowded skill-position group caps Kmet’s routes and red-zone looks, making him a late-round dart throw at best.

Citing Adam Schefter’s mid-August report, Tarracciano reminded readers that Tampa Bay does not expect Chris Godwin back until at least mid-October despite his removal from the PUP list. The slow ramp-up crushes Godwin’s early-season outlook and forces managers to burn a bench spot for six weeks or more, a cost Tarracciano isn’t willing to pay at his current ADP.

Tarracciano noted that injuries to Chris Godwin (targeting a mid-October return) and Jalen McMillan (placed on IR, expected to miss roughly half the season) thrust rookie Emeka Egbuka into Tampa Bay’s WR1 chair from day one. While he believes the Ohio State product can handle the volume spike, he cautioned that Egbuka’s ADP has jumped into round five, squeezing the profit margin. Extra targets should also filter to backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, making Egbuka a ceiling swing best taken only if drafters are comfortable paying current cost.

With Joe Mixon sidelined, Tarracciano expects Nick Chubb to open the season as Houston’s clear lead back, supported only by Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks. Chubb’s proven between-the-tackles efficiency and goal-line résumé give him week-winning volume for at least the first month and make him a priority middle-round target for managers willing to address the position early and back-fill later.

Tarracciano advised removing Joe Mixon from draft boards after Houston placed him on the reserve/non-football injury list. The veteran aggravated 2024 foot-ankle issues, received multiple injections and electromagnetic therapy, and will miss at least four games before a mid-season reevaluation. Aaron Wilson previously reported Mixon was "not a lock for Week 1," and Tarracciano now projects a best-case mid-year return with significant re-injury risk.

Tarracciano urged drafters to fade Matthew Stafford after The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reported the 37-year-old’s herniated-disc flare-up will need management all season. The Rams have capped Stafford’s preseason throws, and Sean McVay admitted one big hit could shelve him. Tarracciano warned that any missed time would crush Puka Nacua and Davante Adams projections and makes Stafford an unnecessary risk in one-QB formats.

Evan Tarracciano said Anthony Richardson should be taken off redraft boards after losing the Colts’ camp competition to new signing Daniel Jones. Richardson’s lingering injuries and sub-48% completion rate in 2024 forced Indianapolis to look elsewhere, and Shane Steichen’s “hard to say” comment about Richardson’s future signals the organization could move on. Tarracciano sees no clear path back to fantasy relevance, noting that athletic upside alone cannot overcome a bench role with an uncertain roster spot.

Tom Strachan urged drafters to scoop Tucker Kraft at his TE11 ADP after a 2024 breakout in which he paced Green Bay with seven touchdowns and led all tight ends with 50-plus targets in yards after catch at 9.38. Kraft decisively pulled away from Luke Musgrave after both were drafted in 2023, and Strachan expects the offense to tilt further toward the air with rookie wideout Matthew Golden stretching the field. Kraft already matched George Kittle’s TD total minus one and trailed Mark Andrews by only three, so a modest bump in volume could vault him into the position’s elite tier while still available three rounds later than comparably productive options.

Tom Strachan highlighted Colston Loveland as a late-round tight end who could smash expectations thanks to his all-around skill set and the Bears investing the 10th overall pick in him. Strachan pointed out that Loveland is already a competent run blocker, which keeps him on the field for play-action—an area Ben Johnson exploited when orchestrating Sam LaPorta’s rookie explosion two seasons ago. Chicago lacks established red-zone weapons, so Loveland’s path to touchdowns is clear. With Johnson personally lobbying for the pick and no entrenched target hogs on the roster, Strachan expects Loveland to outperform his current double-digit-round ADP and flirt with back-end TE1 numbers as early as Week 1.

Tom Strachan said Lamar Jackson should be a top priority because drafters are letting last year’s overall QB1 slide to QB2 prices. Strachan reminded readers that Jackson has logged 130-plus rushing attempts in every season except one, led the NFL with 8.8 yards per attempt, and averaged three more fantasy points per game than Josh Allen in 2024. He noted that Baltimore’s surrounding talent is the best it has ever been: Rashod Bateman is coming off a career year and Zay Flowers just became the franchise’s first Pro Bowl wideout. With elite rushing volume and an upgraded receiving corps, Strachan believes even mild regression still leaves Jackson with week-winning upside that justifies taking him in the late-third/early-fourth round of 2025 drafts.

Tom Strachan called Brock Purdy the most overlooked fantasy quarterback of the offseason despite a fresh $265 million extension. Purdy finished 2024 third in yards per attempt (8.5) and eighth in passing yards (3,864) even though the 49ers had only 57 snaps with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Purdy on the field together. San Francisco’s secondary projects to be bottom-five, a scenario Strachan says will push Kyle Shanahan toward a higher pass rate. With elite efficiency, a healthy skill group, and likely negative game scripts, Strachan believes Purdy can crack the top-six at the position while costing a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 pick.

Chmyz labeled Rome Odunze a fade at WR35. The ninth-overall pick disappointed as a rookie, finishing 73rd in PFF grade and 81st in yards per route run (1.81). A coaching change means new OC Ben Johnson has no draft-capital allegiance to Odunze, and the Bears added second-round burner Luther Burden plus first-round tight end Colston Loveland to siphon targets. Given DJ Moore’s entrenched role and Caleb Williams’ unproven NFL production, Chmyz prefers Jordan Addison, Stefon Diggs and even Jauan Jennings over Odunze at similar prices.

Chmyz also endorsed Ricky Pearsall (WR43 ADP) as a strong lottery ticket. The former first-rounder slogged through a rookie season marred by a preseason gunshot wound yet still closed Weeks 17-18 with 14-210-2. Healthy entering Year 2 and paired with Kyle Shanahan, Pearsall has a clear path to volume while Aiyuk recovers and could hold the role if the offense clicks. At a double-digit draft cost, the risk-reward calculus tilts heavily in favor of drafting him.

Chmyz urged drafters to scoop up Jauan Jennings around his WR42 ADP. Jennings ranked 15th in PFF receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run last season, numbers that stack up with league alphas. Assuming his minor calf issue and contract negotiations resolve, Jennings should reprise a featured role for Brock Purdy while Brandon Aiyuk rehabs. FantasyPros expert consensus ranks him far higher than the market, giving managers an immediate value edge in drafts.

Chmyz advised fading Brandon Aiyuk even after his discount to WR49. Aiyuk is not expected back until roughly Week 6 following a torn ACL/MCL, meaning fantasy managers would bench him for at least a third of the season. More worrisome, his play had already dipped before the injury—PFF receiving grade crashed from 92.3 in 2023 to 74.1 in 2024 and yards per route run fell from 3.01 to 1.74. With Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall capable of keeping the offense humming, Chmyz doubts Kyle Shanahan will force-feed snaps to a rehabbing receiver who has previously clashed with the coaching staff. The upside path is simply too narrow for the price.

Chmyz called Emeka Egbuka a smash pick at his WR47 cost. The first-round rookie steps into an offense that finished third in passing yards and second in passing TDs last season and will begin 2025 without Chris Godwin. Underdog best-ball drafters already value Egbuka ahead of Godwin (WR37 vs WR47), suggesting the market expects the 22-year-old to seize a major role. With Mike Evans turning 32 and Godwin battling an ankle injury, Egbuka’s youth, polished route running and inexpensive draft capital create a low-risk, high-reward profile in both season-long and best-ball formats.

Ted Chmyz warned drafters that Chris Godwin is a shaky investment at his WR36 ADP now that reports indicate he is likely to open the season on the PUP list. Godwin would miss a minimum of four games and there is no guarantee he regains pre-injury form afterward. Chmyz noted that while Godwin out-targeted Mike Evans 61-42 in the seven games both were healthy last year, Evans averaged just 11.8 half-PPR points alongside a healthy Godwin versus 17.3 without him, underscoring how crowded the target tree becomes when both are active. With a quarter of the fantasy regular season already gone before Godwin can return—and with Emeka Egbuka waiting in the wings—Chmyz believes spending a mid-round pick on Godwin puts managers behind the eight ball from day one.

Evan Tarracciano argued that in formats with more than 12 managers, Jahmyr Gibbs backers should burn a bench spot on David Montgomery despite the downside of doubling exposure to the same offense. He acknowledged Detroit could regress without coordinator Ben Johnson, but stressed that injuries to starting running backs are inevitable and waiver options will be non-existent when disaster strikes. Citing last year’s McCaffrey-Mason example, Tarracciano said rostering Montgomery now prevents an expensive FAAB scramble later and provides proven RB2 production whenever Gibbs is unavailable.

Evan Tarracciano urged fantasy GMs in 12-plus-team leagues to pounce on Trey Benson the second James Conner shows hamstring issues or slides back to his 2023 form. With waiver pools already paper-thin, locking up Benson would secure 15-plus-touch upside in an offense that funnels work to its primary runner. Tarracciano compared the potential Conner-to-Benson pivot to last year’s McCaffrey-Mason windfall that produced 800 rushing yards for a lucky early waiver bidder, and advised managers to commit serious FAAB dollars rather than risk missing a league-winning add.

Evan Tarracciano said deep-league managers need to be ready to empty the wallet on Ray Davis the instant James Cook misses time, specifically citing a potential Week 3 knee issue as the type of scenario that sparks a feeding frenzy. He reminded readers that an early-season injury to Christian McCaffrey last year triggered a waiver war for Jordan Mason, who turned nearly 800 rushing yards and several touchdowns into weekly Flex value. Tarracciano expects a similar outcome in Buffalo—any back who inherits the Bills’ lead role steps into high-value touches and red-zone work—so Davis should command a top-shelf FAAB bid the moment Cook is sidelined.

Mike Fanelli pointed out that boring can be beautiful and Jason Myers embodies that. Despite Seattle’s middle-of-the-pack offense, Myers has logged three straight top-12 finishes, most recently K12 at 7.8 fantasy points per game. He connected on 26-of-30 field goals in 2024 and attempted a 50-plus-yard kick in nearly half of Seattle’s games, juicing his ceiling with long-distance bonus points. Fanelli highlighted that Myers hit eight or more fantasy points in almost 60 percent of contests and called him a rock-solid floor play who is inexplicably sliding to K23 in drafts.

Mike Fanelli encouraged drafters to scoop Will Reichard at his depressed K19 price. Reichard missed four weeks in 2024, forcing Minnesota to mix in Parker Romo, yet the tandem still produced 168 fantasy points—third-most among kickers. On a per-game basis Reichard ranked K6 among those with six or more appearances, averaging 9.7 while going a perfect 38-for-38 on extra points. Fanelli expects Kevin O’Connell’s attack to again finish near the top in yards and red-zone trips, giving Reichard weekly top-eight volume and plenty of 50-yard chances in the climate-controlled dome.

Mike Fanelli projected a second-year leap for Mike Sainristil, calling him a bargain at DB42. Sainristil was last season’s DB26 with six fantasy points per game and led Washington with 14 passes defended—double the next closest teammate and 10th most in the NFL. Fanelli believes Dan Quinn’s scheme will keep the ball-hawk busy and even mentioned Pro Bowl upside. He advised grabbing Sainristil late for an inexpensive source of passes defended and potential picks.

Mike Fanelli spotlighted Braden Fiske as a deep sleeper at DL67. The Rams traded two second-rounders and a fifth to secure him in the 2024 draft, and Fiske rewarded them by finishing as the DL20 as a rookie with 5.3 fantasy points per game. He led Los Angeles with nine sacks and two forced fumbles. Entering Year 2 with a full-time role, Fanelli expects the pass-rush numbers to climb and recommends snagging Fiske once the elite defensive linemen are gone.

Mike Fanelli urged drafters to check platform rules before targeting Travis Hunter. Hunter caught 96 passes on offense last season while still playing every defensive snap, pacing his team with four interceptions and 11 passes defended. Fanelli believes the Jaguars newcomer is worth a top-30 overall pick if your league credits both offensive and defensive stats when he’s started in an IDP slot. In formats that only score defensive production, however, Fanelli would avoid him at his current DB16 ECR.

Mike Fanelli called Zaire Franklin a set-and-forget LB1. Franklin led the NFL with 173 total tackles and ranked third with 93 solos while forcing five fumbles (second most in the league). Those numbers fueled a career-best 10.8 fantasy points per game and his third straight top-10 linebacker finish, including the overall LB1 spot in 2024. Fanelli expects similar three-down volume in 2025 and urged managers in tackle-heavy scoring to draft Franklin as the first linebacker off the board.

Mike Fanelli said Myles Garrett should be one of the first defensive linemen drafted in IDP formats. Despite seeing a steady diet of double-teams, Garrett finished last year as the DL2 at 8.5 fantasy points per game and trailed only Trey Hendrickson in sacks with 14. He also led all defensive linemen with 22 tackles for loss and three forced fumbles while no other Brown recorded more than five sacks. Fanelli emphasized Garrett’s streak of double-digit sacks in every season of his career as evidence of a rock-solid weekly floor with week-winning upside.

Mike Fanelli labeled Frankie Luvu a value pick at LB27. After signing a sizable free-agent deal, Luvu delivered career highs in sacks (8), quarterback hits (14) and passes defended (7). He has turned in at least double-digit tackles for loss, six sacks and nine QB hits in three straight seasons while averaging 8.4 or more fantasy points each year, all without playing on an elite defense. Fanelli sees an unchanged three-down role and recommends drafting Luvu as a reliable LB2 who still offers spike-week upside.

Mike Fanelli labeled Daniel Carlson the premier sleeper at the position. Carlson quietly rebounded to K10 last season with 8.2 fantasy points per game while converting 85 percent of his kicks despite operating in a Raiders offense that ranked 28th in scoring at 18.2 points per game. Fanelli argued that the context changes everything in 2025: Las Vegas hired Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly to co-run the offense, traded for Geno Smith, and drafted dual-threat back Ashton Jeanty. He projects the Raiders to jump into the league’s top half in red-zone trips, which would push Carlson’s attempts back toward the 40-plus range that produced three straight top-five seasons from 2020-2022. Fanelli sees legitimate top-five upside at an ADP of K18.

Richard Janvrin leaned under on Breece Hall’s 223.1-carry, 995.6-yard projection. Hall logged 209 carries for 876 yards and five scores in 2024, but Janvrin argues circumstances are less favorable now. New quarterback Justin Fields has averaged nine rushing attempts and six yards per carry in his career, siphoning designed runs and scrambles that previously went to Hall. Braelon Allen, who saw 92 carries for 334 yards and two touchdowns last year, looms as a bigger rotational piece after a developmental season. With Fields absorbing a chunk of red-zone work and the Jets intent on using Allen, Janvrin doubts Hall will pick up the 100-plus extra rushing yards baked into the projection and sees his receiving volume falling from last season’s 57 catches. Overall, he called the consensus forecast too optimistic for season-long fantasy drafters.

Richard Janvrin said Tony Pollard is positioned to finish slightly above FantasyPros’ 197.4-point PPR projection. Pollard has cleared 1,000 rushing yards in three straight seasons and has topped 5.4 rushing TDs twice, demonstrating a consistent floor higher than the posted baseline. Janvrin highlighted Tennessee’s 2025 upgrades: Cam Ward replaces last year’s ‘horrendous’ quarterback play, while veterans Dan Moore Jr. and Kevin Zeitler strengthen an offensive line that was a clear weakness in 2024 when Pollard still handled 260 carries. With Tyjae Spears sidelined for the rest of the preseason by a high-ankle sprain and coming off a 3.7 YPC on 84 attempts, Janvrin expects minimal competition for work. He projected a path to another 1,000-plus-yard season and modest touchdown growth, enough to top the current consensus totals.

FantasyPros Staff highlighted Darnell Mooney as a forgotten asset on Sleeper, going outside the top-48 wideouts at ADP 110.7 (WR49). Mooney finished 2024 as the WR31, averaging 12.1 PPR points and scoring a career-best five TDs. Per Fantasy Points Data he cracked the top-36 in air-yard share (33%), first-read target share (26.2%) and deep-target rate (17%). While they conceded he won’t be a league winner, staff believes those underlying usage numbers make him a dependable WR4/FLEX who is currently priced as a bench flyer.

FantasyPros Staff labeled Stefon Diggs a screaming value on Sleeper at ADP 93.5 (WR43). Before tearing his ACL in Week 8, Diggs ranked as the WR6 through seven games with 7.9 targets and 15.6 PPR points per contest while sharing looks with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Now installed as the uncontested No.1 option in what they expect to be an improved Patriots passing attack, staff projects a floor of high-end WR3 production if he’s active for Week 1, making him a savvy mid-round stash in season-long leagues.

FantasyPros Staff argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is undervalued on ESPN where he’s going at WR15 (ADP 34) even after finishing 2024 as the WR9 with 100 catches, 1,130 yards, six TDs and 14.9 PPR points per game. They acknowledged concern over Geno Smith being replaced by Sam Darnold but pointed out volume should climb after DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett left town. Although Seattle signed Cooper Kupp, staff still projects Smith-Njigba to command No.1 target share, saying the 15-spot gap between his expert consensus ranking (WR19) and ADP is unjustified for season-long drafters.

FantasyPros Staff hammered Jaydon Blue as their favorite sleeper at an ADP of 128.8 (RB47) on Yahoo. Reported first-team reps in Cowboys camp boost his immediate role odds, while comps to Miles Sanders and Javonte Williams underscored the upside: those veterans posted explosive run rates of 2.9% or lower in 2024, bottom-20 among 68 qualified backs per Fantasy Points Data, whereas Blue is labeled an "explosive runner" who already logged six receiving TDs last season. Staff suggested he could mirror 2024 breakout Bucky Irving, making him a late-round lottery ticket in season-long formats.

Andrew Erickson listed Tyreek Hill as a bust. Even in 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill cleared 100 yards only twice and averaged 12.4 fantasy points (WR18). A Week-1 wrist injury helped drag his yards per route run to 1.75—less than half of his 2023 figure. Now 31, Hill approaches the typical wide-receiver age cliff, and Erickson added that Hill’s sideline blow-up late last season could prompt Miami to consider moving on. Without a clear bounce-back case in volume or efficiency, Erickson will let someone else pay the early-second-round price.