Chris Welsh doubled down on Tyler Soderstrom, this time grabbing his +440 home-run line (and sprinkling the total-bases over) against Jordan Lyles in Kauffman Stadium. Welsh pointed out Soderstrom is "on a thing right now," logging six extra-base hits and three homers in his last five games while carrying a 51 % fly-ball rate. Right-handed hitters have produced a .367 xwOBA and 2.1 HR/9 off Lyles, and the spacious Kansas City alleys actually play up Soderstrom’s pull-side power thanks to a 10 mph wind out to right-center. With Soderstrom’s max-exit velo back above 110 mph, Welsh views the +440 tag as mispriced relative to similar mid-tier sluggers sitting in the +320 range.

Joe Orrico said the +500 to +550 number on a Mookie Betts homer tonight is too good to pass up. Betts has looked “really good” after the off-season weight-loss narrative, posting a 152 wRC+ with 10 long balls and the second-highest barrel rate of his Dodgers tenure. Orrico noted Pirates right-hander Osvaldo Bido has allowed a .476 SLG and 1.8 HR/9 to righties since AAA and lacks a put-away pitch to deal with Betts’ elite plate discipline. In a favorable 75-degree night game at Dodger Stadium, Orrico expects Betts to elevate Bido’s 92-mph four-seamer and cash the big number, making it his favorite home-run ticket on the board.

Welsh’s favorite plus-money prop is Tyler Soderstrom over 1.5 total bases against right-hander Matt Sauer in Kansas City. Soderstrom has logged four extra-base hits in his last three games and owns a 51 % fly-ball rate, the ideal profile for Kauffman Stadium’s spacious alleys. Sauer has surrendered a .368 expected wOBA to left-handed hitters across Triple-A and MLB combined, and his fastball sits only 92-93 mph—exactly the velo band Soderstrom has punished for a .640 slugging mark. Welsh expects at least one double or homer, making the +140 line a clear value.

Chris Welsh told listeners to keep the faith in Adolis Garcia even with the outfielder slogging along at a .229 batting average. Garcia’s 15.7 % barrel rate and 48 % hard-hit rate both sit above his 2023 levels, signaling the power stroke is perfectly healthy. The problem, as Welsh put it, is a "still-too-high" 28 % strikeout rate that caps batting-average upside around .240. He expects both Garcia and the rest of the injury-thinned Rangers lineup to rebound as temperatures rise and Corey Seager returns to full strength, projecting 25-plus homers and double-digit steals from this point forward. Unless managers receive a top-50 overall piece back, Welsh is holding rather than selling low.

Joe Orrico endorsed sending Jasson Dominguez and Patrick Schwellenbach to acquire Wyatt Langford in redraft leagues. He believes Schwellenbach will be "okay" but offers middling strikeout upside, while Dominguez’s timeline and role remain murky behind a crowded Yankees outfield. Langford, on the other hand, is already logging everyday DH at-bats for Texas and owns a 93 mph average exit velocity despite a .240 BABIP-driven slump. Orrico expects mid-season batting-order promotion and a second-half surge once Langford’s chase rate stabilizes, projecting 12-15 homers and 10 steals rest-of-year. Given the ceiling and immediate playing time, Orrico called the two-for-one swap a clear win.

Joe Orrico advised taking the offer of Julio Rodriguez, Austin Riley, Josh Naylor and Tarik Skubal in exchange for Shohei Ohtani (hitter-only format) and the oft-injured Byron Buxton in a 10-team roto league. Orrico acknowledged that top-heavy formats usually favor elite talent, but argued that adding four locked-in starters—each projected for top-75 value—more than offsets the loss of a single first-round bat, especially when Buxton brings next-to-nothing. Rodriguez’s 30-SB floor, Riley’s bankable power, Skubal’s Cy-Young-caliber ratios, and Naylor’s corner-infield stability collectively raise category points across the board. Orrico concluded the package moves the roster from "one-man show" to legitimate championship depth and would smash accept immediately.

Joe Orrico advised dropping Roki Sasaki in most redraft leagues after the right-hander admitted pitching through shoulder discomfort in his last few starts. Orrico fears the combination of a nebulous injury timeline and rumors that Nippon’s Chiba Lotte Marines want to re-work Sasaki’s delivery could sideline him until June—or longer. With only three or four IL spots available in standard formats, Orrico believes stashing Sasaki is an unaffordable luxury unless your league has unlimited injured spots. He conceded he ranked Sasaki too aggressively in preseason and is now taking the L, recommending managers pivot to healthy arms on waivers rather than wait out what could be a months-long rehab.

Welsh told listeners he would roster Kyle Stowers over Jasson Dominguez the rest of the way. Stowers has seized a top-of-the-order role and is slashing .296/.356/.565 with four homers in just 53 plate appearances, giving him a 164 wRC+. Dominguez owns a respectable 116 wRC+ with five homers and three steals, but Welsh emphasized that three of those bombs came in one game and that Yankee Stadium’s dimensions can mask inconsistencies. He trusts the Orioles to keep Stowers in a prime run-production spot, whereas Dominguez could still ride the shuttle if the Yankees’ veteran outfield gets healthy. In 12-team redraft Welsh is adding Stowers wherever possible and treating Dominguez as a luxury stash, not a must-hold.

Chris Welsh sided with Rhys Hoskins over Vinnie Pasquantino for the remainder of 2024, calling the veteran first baseman “vintage Hoskins.” Welsh pointed out that Hoskins’ underlying metrics have completely rebounded: a 13.2 % barrel rate, 46 % hard-hit rate and a launch angle right in his career sweet spot have fueled 10 homers and a 120 wRC+. Although Milwaukee’s lineup is merely average—Hoskins has only 12 runs in 41 games—Welsh still expects the power to carry him into the top-10 range at the position because several early over-performers (Wilmer Flores, Tyler Soderstrom) are likely to fade. Pasquantino may give you a handful of batting-average points, but Welsh argued that Hoskins’ bankable 25-35 homer pace is far more valuable in 12-team season-long formats.

Joe Orrico chose Rhys Hoskins over Vinnie Pasquantino for the rest of the season, highlighting Hoskins’ career-long 25–35 homer pace and his current tear—4-for-4 with a homer, double and five RBI on Wednesday. Orrico said Hoskins "is kind of just doing what he always does," providing bankable power even if the batting average settles in the .240s. Pasquantino may offer average upside, but Orrico doubts he can match Hoskins’ home-run total, making the Brewers slugger the better corner-infield target in standard leagues. With Milwaukee’s lineup heating up, Orrico projected top-10 first-base power numbers from Hoskins going forward.

Joe Orrico warned that Brandon Woodruff is unlikely to help fantasy rosters in 2024. Woodruff has essentially been sidelined for two seasons and has already experienced multiple rehab setbacks this spring. Orrico noted the Brewers have pushed his timetable back again and that the right-hander has dealt with lingering shoulder issues throughout the process. Given the extended layoff, Orrico expects strict workload restrictions and possibly only a cameo appearance once Woodruff is finally activated. He recommended prioritizing healthy options like rookie Logan Henderson over Woodruff in all redraft leagues, even if that means cutting the veteran outright.

Joe Orrico pumped the brakes on the Dalton Rushing hype after Dave Roberts said the rookie will back up Will Smith, pinch-hit as a lefty bat, and *not* see time in the outfield. That schedule equates to only two-to-three starts per week, slashing his fantasy usefulness even in deep two-catcher formats. Orrico would rather roster Cubs prospect Moises Ballesteros, who could gain everyday reps if Chicago shifts Michael Busch to third. Rushing still brings intriguing pull-side power in Dodger Stadium, but unless an injury opens playing time Orrico views him as a stash for only the deepest leagues and certainly behind Jordan Lawlar in priority.

Chris Welsh told managers to grab David Festa right now, predicting Minnesota will promote him within the next 2-3 days after optioning Simeon Woods Richardson. Festa has been dominant over his last two Triple-A turns—14 strikeouts, zero walks, and only three hits across 11 2⁄3 innings—while steadily building his pitch count into the mid-80s. Welsh said he’d dump a low-ceiling streamer like Patrick Corbin to stash Festa, calling the rookie a borderline must-add in 12-teamers because he sits 94-96 with a plus change and slider. Although Zebby Matthews remains in the conversation, Welsh believes the clerical roster move strongly hints that “Festivus for the rest of us” is imminent.

Joe Orrico advised cashing out on Spencer Strider the moment Atlanta announces his return. In Tuesday’s simulated game Strider’s fastball opened at 96 mph but quickly tailed off to 93-94 over 65 pitches—well below last month’s 95 mph average and a full four ticks shy of his 2022 peak. Orrico highlighted a steady year-over-year velocity decline (98 in ’22, 97 in ’23, 96 in April, now 93-94) plus two separate IL stints already this season. With Strider relying on a two-pitch mix, any fastball erosion leaves hitters sitting dead-red. Orrico would flip the brand name for a top-25–30 starter or any top-100 overall asset before another setback torpedoes the value.

Chris Welsh told listeners to hold or re-add Nick Kurtz rather than cling to Jordan Lawlar. Kurtz is batting .280 with his first big-league homer and, in Welsh’s words, the “profile looks good.” Lawlar, meanwhile, is stuck in a platoon that limits him to sporadic at-bats, and Welsh does not expect significant playing-time growth unless Ketel Marte lands on the IL—something Arizona says is unlikely after the second baseman merely reported general soreness. Because Lawlar’s upside is currently theoretical while Kurtz is producing every day, Welsh advised reversing any recent Lawlar-for-Kurtz swap and treating Kurtz as the superior season-long stash in 12-team formats.

Chris Welsh encouraged fantasy players to trade for Alex Bregman, arguing the third baseman’s new mechanics and batted-ball profile support a true renaissance. Bregman has opened up his stance and is barreling 11.5 % of balls with a career-best hard-hit rate while striking out under 20 %. His 19-degree average launch angle is at the top of his historical range, fueling 11 home runs and a .314 average through Wednesday. Baseball Savant’s park-adjusted overlay shows even more power if he played elsewhere, suggesting his current pace of 25-30 homers with 100 runs and 100 RBI is sustainable. Welsh projects a rest-of-season line near .290 with top-50 overall value, making Bregman a buy-high even if a league-mate thinks he’s selling high.

Welsh recommended betting Houston First Five Moneyline at +110 with Hunter Brown opposing Jacob deGrom. Brown owns MLB’s third-best xERA (2.16) and a 32 % strikeout rate, while Texas is missing Corey Seager and has managed just eight runs in its last four games. If the game is tied after five innings the wager pushes, so Welsh views it as low-risk, high-reward exposure to an elite arm facing a slumping, injury-thinned lineup.

Orrico’s favorite Thursday wager is Jacob deGrom over 6.5 strikeouts at plus money. DeGrom fanned 10 batters in just five innings in his previous start, suggesting his swing-and-miss stuff is fully back. Houston’s projected lineup has a 23 % K-rate versus right-handed four-seamers and sliders, the two pitches deGrom leans on 80 % of the time. Orrico warned that books are unlikely to hang a total this low again if the ace repeats last week’s velocity and whiff totals, making tonight a one-time buying opportunity for bettors.

Chris Welsh warned that Patrick Corbin is still a ticking time-bomb and should only be used as a matchup-based streamer. Corbin draws the Yankees early next week and Welsh flat-out refused to start him in that spot, noting New York is top-10 in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Corbin’s lone appeal is the projected follow-up start against the White Sox—an offense that sits bottom-five in OPS versus southpaws. In daily moves leagues Welsh would bench him for the Yankees and deploy him for Chicago; in weekly formats he’d rather roster 40–50 alternative one-start arms than eat both outings. The takeaway: squeeze value against true bottom feeders, but abandon ship the moment a competent lineup appears.

After Corbin struck out nine Rockies over six innings, Joe Orrico warned managers not to fall for the apparent turnaround. Corbin’s surface 3.35 ERA hides a 4.52 SIERA, mid-4 FIP/xFIP marks, an 18 % strikeout rate and 1.30 WHIP. Orrico argued this profile screams regression once fantasy players start spending FAAB, likening the situation to a trap that pays off only until you trust it. He recommended avoiding Corbin in most formats, predicting the left-hander will burn new investors as soon as tougher matchups arrive.

Joe Orrico said fantasy managers should aggressively add or hold Devin Williams even though Luke Weaver has converted four saves with a 0.45 ERA and 0.60 WHIP since taking over the ninth. Orrico stressed that Williams has surrendered just five earned runs across 14 innings – a tiny sample for relievers – and owns a far superior long-term track record. He believes it would be "a disaster" for New York if the former All-Star does not reclaim the role, predicting the change will come sooner than later. In redraft leagues Orrico advised scooping Williams off any waiver wire, viewing Weaver’s run as a short-term placeholder rather than a season-long hurdle.

Joe Pisapia went back to the same matchup for his home-run call, backing Shohei Ohtani. Oakland still lists the starter as "TBD," and Pisapia joked "TBD gives up a lot of homers." If it is Jeffrey Springs making his first MLB appearance since surgery, Pisapia likes the spot even more because Ohtani owns a 1.089 OPS off lefties and sits in the 94th percentile for barrel rate. With friendly hitting conditions at Dodger Stadium, Pisapia expects Ohtani’s elite exit velocities to cash the HR prop.

Chris Welsh chose Mookie Betts for his daily home-run call and said he will sprinkle Betts’ "anytime HR" prop. Oakland is expected to throw left-hander Jeffrey Springs (or another TBD southpaw), giving Betts the platoon edge he has crushed for a .602 SLG and 47 % pull rate this season. Welsh added that Dodger Stadium grades as one of the best pull-side parks for right-handed power, making Betts a priority play in DFS and betting markets.

Pisapia laid –126 on the Blue Jays because Jose Berrios has the form edge while Shane Baz is scuffling. Baz owns a 4.93 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across his last seven starts (38 IP) and his command has wavered, prompting Pisapia to say he’ll "keep attacking Baz until he turns it around." With Berrios working deeper into games and Toronto’s bullpen rested, Pisapia expects the Jays to control the matchup; he even suggested adding the Toronto team-total over for extra exposure.

Welsh is backing Jose Soriano to record at least four strikeouts (over 3.5 at –110) even though the Padres strike out less than any team in baseball. Soriano has topped that mark in all but two of his starts this season and just fanned six Diamondbacks—another low-K lineup—thanks to a power sinker/curveball mix that hitters chase 34% of the time. Because the number is so modest, Welsh views it as "a battle I’m willing to fight," trusting Soriano’s 24% K-rate more than San Diego’s contact skills.

Welsh loves Spencer Schwellenbach’s strikeout prop at 5.5 and is betting the over. The rookie has cleared that number in two of his last three starts, leaning on a filthy split-finger that generated a 36% whiff rate in his most recent outing. Washington is a contact-oriented club but still sits mid-table in strikeout percentage (22.4%), and Welsh thinks the matchup tilts toward Schwellenbach because "that split will give fits to their left-handed outfielders." With no heavy juice attached, Welsh labeled it a "low strikeout total that’s too tempting to pass."

Chris Welsh warned managers that Trevor Story’s bat is unplayable right now and suggested Boston may soon relieve him of shortstop duties. After a 0-for-3 with two additional strikeouts dropped Story to .145 (9-for-62) over his last 15 games, Welsh highlighted the ugly peripherals: just one homer and 21 strikeouts in that span. He floated a position switch—“Story to first base and take one for the team”—as the quickest way for the Red Sox to get top prospect Marcelo Mayer or even Roman Anthony into the lineup. While Welsh does not expect Boston to outright bench or DFA Story, he believes the front office “has to take a long look at this roster” and managers in season-long formats should park Story on the bench or look to move on before the club forces the issue.

Joe Pisapia said fantasy managers should be ready to jettison Jordan Walker after another 0-for-4, two-strikeout night dragged the 22-year-old’s slash line even lower. Pisapia expects St. Louis to option Walker before the weekend, noting it would be his third demotion in as many seasons. He argued the club can easily absorb the move because Brendan Donovan can shift to a corner spot while Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, and Alec Burleson all provide outfield depth. Pisapia added that Walker’s winter attempt to shorten his swing by bringing his hands inside has backfired—“everything is worse this year”—making a change of scenery or a “poop-for-poop” trade increasingly likely. In redraft leagues of 12 teams or fewer, Pisapia advised cutting Walker now rather than waiting for the inevitable transaction.

Joe Pisapia called "shenanigans" on the Brewers’ explanation that Brandon Woodruff’s additional rehab start is strictly due to ankle tendinitis. Pisapia is worried because Woodruff’s fastball sat just 90–91 mph in his last rehab appearance—well below his typical 95 mph—and he suspects a potential dead-arm period or lingering shoulder trouble. While acknowledging that an ankle issue could sap push-off power, Pisapia advised fantasy managers to keep Woodruff on the bench until the velocity returns, warning that investing heavily in injured pitchers always carries hidden risk.

Welsh noted that Drew Pomeranz has thrown seven scoreless innings since joining the Cubs, posting eight strikeouts and a sparkling 0.52 WHIP. With Chicago wanting Ryan Pressly “nowhere near” ninth-inning work on certain nights and Porter Hodge occasionally unavailable, Welsh believes Pomeranz can pick up one-off saves and is "a nice deeper-league speculative guy." He compared the veteran’s current run to Shelby Miller’s early 2023 stretch with Arizona and recommended stashing Pomeranz in formats where every potential closer matters, while acknowledging Porter Hodge remains the favorite for the majority of save chances.

Chris Welsh urged fantasy managers in 10- and even 12-team redraft leagues to pick up Trent Grisham, projecting the outfielder to "leave this year with a 25-home-run season." Welsh backed the take with elite underlying numbers: a 17% barrel rate, 48.9% hard-hit rate, only an 18% strikeout rate (career low), double-digit walk rate, and an average 20° launch angle. Grisham’s .288 batting average nearly matches his .287 xBA, and he has already launched 12 homers despite zero steals. Welsh concluded that even if the batting average settles around .260, the power profile looks real and is worth an immediate add.

Joe Pisapia grabbed Boston at –108 on the road, arguing the market is underrating how lopsided the pitching matchup is. Detroit rookie Jackson Jobe owns an ERA north of 5.00 and a .287 opponent average, whereas Tanner Houck has delivered quality starts in five of his last six with a 57% ground-ball rate. Pisapia also pointed out Rafael Devers’ recent heater (three homers, .390 OBP over his past seven games) and Boston’s top-10 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching. He expects the Red Sox to chase Jobe early and let their rested bullpen protect a lead.

Welsh took Justin Verlander under 4.5 strikeouts at –115. Verlander has failed to reach five punch-outs in back-to-back starts and sits at a career-low 20% K-rate. The Diamondbacks strike out just 19.2% of the time against righties, fourth-best in MLB, and welcome Ketel Marte back to the lineup, further lowering their whiff profile. Welsh noted that Arizona’s lefty trio of Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson and Lourdes Gurriel all own sub-17% K-rates, making it tough for Verlander to pile up strikeouts unless he finds vintage velocity that has yet to appear in 2024.

Pisapia pounced on Pittsburgh at +120 with Paul Skenes on the hill. Even after a shaky Cardinals start, Skenes still sports a 32% strikeout rate and the best Stuff+ among National League starters. Pisapia conceded the Mets lineup has been red-hot (121 wRC+ in May) but argued that whenever the league’s premier strikeout arm is an underdog, bettors should take the value. He trusts Skenes to outduel David Peterson and believes a middling New York bullpen (4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) gives the Pirates paths to win even in a low-scoring game.

Pisapia also bet Rafael Devers to record a run at +145. He cited Devers’ 46% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and Detroit’s bullpen ranking 26th in xFIP. With Jobe struggling to miss bats (16% whiff rate) and Houck likely keeping Boston in front, Pisapia expects Devers to bat at least five times and believes a single extra-base hit or walk will put him in scoring position against a relief corps allowing 1.32 HR/9.

Chris Welsh said Clayton Kershaw is expected to be activated this week after tossing six no-hit frames in his final Triple-A rehab outing. Welsh cautioned that several balls were scorched to the warning track and noted the veteran allowed louder contact than the line suggests. Because the Dodgers will almost certainly keep him on a modest pitch count in the first start and wins are the only bankable category, Welsh advised picking Kershaw up everywhere but sitting him initially in roto or H2H leagues that count ratio stats. He added that the Dodgers’ soft NL West cushion gives the club no reason to push Kershaw beyond 75–80 pitches until he proves fully healthy.

Joe Pisapia warned managers to prepare for the possibility that Blake Snell never becomes a usable fantasy asset in 2024. Snell attempted to resume throwing but still felt discomfort, prompting the Dodgers to shut him back down. Pisapia noted Snell’s age, checkered injury history, and the club’s cushy division lead give Los Angeles every incentive to slow-roll or even shelve him entirely. With no bullpen sessions scheduled and no timeline for ramp-up, Pisapia advised anyone without an IL slot to consider cutting bait rather than burning a bench spot through midsummer hoping for a late-season cameo.

Chris Welsh encouraged fantasy managers in 12-team and deeper leagues to scoop Jordan Lawlar after Arizona finally promoted him. Welsh said manager Torey Lovullo plans to play Lawlar four of every six games by rotating him between third, short, second, and the DH spot. The 21-year-old slashed .336/.414/.551 with six homers and 13 steals in Triple-A, and his average exit velocity jumped to 110 mph — a career best. He is elevating more consistently, and Welsh believes the 28-for-31 minor-league stolen-base track record will translate because the D-backs run aggressively. The downside is Lawlar will hit in the bottom third of the order and could sit twice in short weeks, so Welsh stopped short of calling him a must-add in shallow 10-team leagues.

Joe Pisapia said it is perfectly reasonable to drop Nick Kurtz in 10-team formats after another 0-for-3 with a ninth-inning pinch-hitter. Kurtz owns a 39 % strike-out rate through his first two weeks, and the upcoming stretch (@Dodgers, @Giants, vs Angels, vs Phillies) does him no favors. Even though the rookie still sports a .269 average, Pisapia expects pitchers to keep exploiting his whiff problems with breaking and off-speed stuff. He added that Oakland could send Kurtz back down by Memorial Day if the punch-outs do not correct, so redraft managers protecting batting-average or OBP categories should move on unless they play in 12-plus-team leagues where upside bats are scarce.

Woodruff will return later this week after a 39-pitch tune-up, and Welsh expects the Brewers to cap him around 70-75 pitches in the debut (likely Friday vs. Minnesota). He advised scooping Woodruff everywhere but sitting him if you’re guarding ratios, unless the matchup shifts to a bottom-tier offense like Pittsburgh. With Aaron Ashby, D.L. Hall and two upper-minors prospects also vying for rotation spots, Welsh stressed that Milwaukee badly needs Woodruff behind Freddy Peralta, so his workload should climb quickly after the first abbreviated turn.

Welsh warned that Francis’ six-plus solid innings Sunday were fool’s gold. Under the hood he owns a 5.40 ERA with an even worse xERA, a 17 % K-rate, 12 % barrel rate, and 50 % hard-hit rate. Both primary pitches carry opponent xBAs 40-plus points higher than league average. Unless he strings together four straight dominant outings, Welsh sees him strictly as a matchup-based streamer and would not chase him on waivers in anything shallower than 15-team formats.

Pisapia urged managers to trade for Alcantara now while the surface numbers still scare people. Alcantara fanned eight over 5.2 IP against the White Sox, and Chris Welsh highlighted a meaningful tweak: the change-up, normally his go-to, fell to only 15 % usage (fourth in his arsenal) with zero whiffs, while the fastball/curve combo generated every swing-and-miss. Welsh believes temporarily shelving the change-up could jump-start whiffs before re-introducing it later. The strikeout bounce, 107-pitch workload, and unchanged raw stuff suggest the ace version is close; the sky-high ERA keeps the buy window open another week or two.

Joe Pisapia said Wheeler’s price remains a bargain even after Sunday’s gem (8 K, 7 IP). Wheeler opened last week at 11-to-1, moved to 9-to-1 Sunday morning, and slid only to 7-to-1 after dominating again, signaling the market is still catching up. Pisapia noted the NL field is wide-open because Paul Skenes’ strikeout rate has dipped and voters have no runaway favorite. If Wheeler keeps piling up innings and whiffs on a first-place club, Pisapia expects those odds to keep crashing, making any ticket at 7-to-1 or longer an immediate buy for bettors hunting value.

Joe Pisapia upgraded his Tigers-Rockies same-game parlay by replacing Riley Greene’s RBI leg with a home-run prop, pushing the payout from 3-to-1 to 8.5-to-1. The bet is specifically for Game 2 of the Coors Field doubleheader, where Pisapia expects the altitude and Colorado’s patch-work bullpen (5.62 ERA, worst in MLB) to magnify every hard-hit ball. Greene may sit the early game, but his average exit velocity (91.4 mph) and 12 % barrel rate both eclipse last year’s marks, and he has already homered twice on the road trip. Pisapia views the switch as a classic risk-reward tweak: the Tigers’ leadoff man can still cash the parlay with one swing, while the wider odds compensate for the added variance.

Chris Welsh flagged Freddie Freeman’s home-run prop (around +450 on FanDuel) or 2+ total bases as one of his favorite tickets tonight against Brandon Pfaadt. Welsh called Pfaadt’s long-ball track record “the entire reason the NRFI is only –105,” noting that the right-hander has coughed up 1.7 HR/9 on the season and a .525 SLG to lefties, allowing at least one homer in three of his last four starts. Freeman, meanwhile, carries a 46 % hard-hit rate, .301 ISO versus right-hand pitching, and the league’s third-best contact rate on pitches in the zone. Welsh thinks Pfaadt will survive the opening frame but eventually “leave one out there” for Freeman to pull into the right-field pavilion, making the HR prop and total-bases overs both viable in DFS and betting markets.

Welsh advised fantasy managers to avoid streaming Gunnar Hoglund in next week’s scheduled start at Dodger Stadium. The rookie held opponents to two runs over 5.1 innings in his second MLB outing and produced only five hard-hit balls on 18 in play, but the Dodgers are a different beast. Welsh expects Los Angeles’ patient lineup to force Hoglund into hitters’ counts and predicts the A’s will pull him early to preserve confidence. He likes Hoglund’s 2 percent walk rate and matching 2.5 expected ERA long-term, yet says the upcoming matchup is a DFS and season-long landmine. Bench now, stash for future friendlier series.

Welsh recommended betting the over and avoiding Jack Leiter in DFS for his start against Boston. He called the matchup "an overruns type of thing" and projected at least four earned runs and the possibility of multiple homers against the rookie. The rationale: the Red Sox offense has been "picking back up," Fenway’s park factors favor hitters, and Leiter’s recent minor-league pitch quality suggests he may struggle to finish off MLB bats. Welsh summed it up: this is unlikely to be "a great day" for Leiter, so wager accordingly and steer clear in fantasy spot-start scenarios.

Chris Welsh advised fantasy managers to hang on to—or even scoop up—Devin Williams where he’s been dropped. After a leverage appearance in which Williams struck out three and walked one in a scoreless 10th to earn the win over San Diego, Welsh said the Brewers are clearly trying to ease pressure by using him outside traditional save spots. He acknowledged the ugly surface stats (17 % walk rate, strikeouts down, WHIP a mess) but stressed that if Williams strings together a few outings like this he’ll reclaim ninth-inning duties and could still be a top-tier closer from June forward. In shallow mixed leagues he’s a stash; in deeper formats he’s a buy-low.

Chris Welsh said Juan Soto is still a viable value bet at 25-to-1 for NL MVP despite the crowded field led by Shohei Ohtani and Corbin Carroll. Welsh noted that Soto’s year-over-year barrel-rate and hard-hit numbers look like one of the biggest drop-offs in the league, but argued the decline is "so not believable" for a hitter of Soto’s caliber. He pointed to Soto’s recent multi-homer games and overall "heating up" trend as evidence the underlying metrics will normalize. The takeaway: the market is over-reacting to a small early-season lull, creating an opportunity to grab a superstar on the rise at longshot odds.

Maher cautioned that AJ Smith-Shawver’s shiny 3.00 ERA is smoke and mirrors. Statcast hands him a 5.31 xERA, and his 3.98 FIP is nearly a full run higher than the surface number. Walk rate sits in the 21st percentile, while barrel and hard-hit rates rank 12th and 21st, respectively—red flags that explain why the underlying models are skeptical. Although the 22-year-old flashed no-hit stuff by carrying a bid into the eighth inning last week, Maher warned that managers should treat him as a sell-high or at least a streamer, not a breakout ace, until he tightens command and cuts the loud contact.