Chris Durell grabbed Nicolas Echavarria at +5000 outright and +390 for a top-10, highlighting a dramatic putting leap. Echavarria finished 2025 ranked 5th in SG: Putting after placing 79th and 137th his first two PGA seasons, a trend Durell believes is sustainable on Waialae’s pure Bermuda surfaces. The Colombian closed the fall with four straight made cuts, including two top-10s and a top-15, suggesting the flat stick is already carrying over. While he did not win in 2025 after capturing trophies each of his first two seasons, Durell sees the Sony Open’s emphasis on putting—nine of the top-12 putters finished top-10 last year—as the perfect spot for Echavarria to bounce back at long odds.

Chris Durell bet Harry Hall outright at +2800, pointing to an elite short-game profile tailor-made for Waialae’s Bermuda greens. In 2025 Hall ranked 10th in SG: Around-the-Green and 3rd in SG: Putting, parlaying those skills into five top-5s and 15 top-25s after earning his first career win in 2024. He has made the cut in all three prior Sony Open appearances with a career-best 10th last year. Durell noted that 26 of 29 players who gained 2+ strokes putting here in 2025 made the cut, including the winner and runner-up, underscoring Hall’s path to contend if he hits a merely average number of greens in regulation.

Chris Durell targeted Max McGreevy at +600 for a top-10 finish despite three prior missed cuts at Waialae. He is willing to overlook the poor course history because McGreevy finished the 2025 season 11th in driving accuracy and 16th in Good Drive %, metrics that historically correlate strongly with success at the Sony Open. Recent form is also trending up: a T3 at the Bermuda Championship and T11 at the Bank of Utah Championship to close 2025. On a layout where the top-22 in Fairways Gained all made the cut in 2024, Durell believes McGreevy’s improved tee-to-fairway game gives him his best shot yet to crack the top-10.

Chris Durell recommended Corey Conners at +3500 to win and +300 for a top-10 finish, leaning on the Canadian’s elite accuracy profile. Over the 2025 season Conners ranked 13th in driving accuracy, 21st in SG: Approach and 11th in SG: Ball-Striking. Durell reminded readers that Waialae is a positional layout: in 2025 seventeen of the top-18 players in Fairways Gained made the cut, an identical trend to 2024 and 2023. Conners posted four straight top-12 finishes here before a MC and 57th the last two years, and Durell thinks the underlying skill set is unchanged. If Conners puts to even field average on Bermuda, Durell sees clear top-10 equity with win upside at an attractive number.

Chris Durell labeled Hideki Matsuyama his favorite outright play at +1800, arguing the number is still cheap given both form and course fit. Matsuyama won the Sony Open in 2022, owns four top-20s in his last six starts at Waialae, and has made nine straight cuts here. He arrives off a victory at the Hero World Challenge and has six top-20s in his last seven worldwide starts (26th the lone miss). Statistically, Matsuyama ranks top-10 on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green and sits top-3 in every proximity bucket from 150–200+ yards—distances that make up the bulk of approach shots at Waialae. On a track where driving accuracy trumps distance and mid-iron precision is paramount, Durell believes Matsuyama checks every box and should be closer to the +1200 range.

Chris Durell said Nick Taylor is the best outright value on his betting card at +3300. Waialae ranks top-5 on DataGolf’s course-history tool, and Taylor’s trajectory fits that narrative perfectly: T68, 74th, MC, MC, T32 in his first five visits followed by T11 (2021), back-to-back T7s (2023, 2024) and an outright win last year. Durell noted that Taylor almost always shows up with lukewarm form—his three most recent finishes are 33rd, 44th and MC—yet repeatedly spikes on the positional 7,044-yard par-70 because he understands its dog-legged fairways and Bermuda greens. With history so predictive at Waialae and scoring driven by accuracy over power, Durell sees +3300 as a mis-price worth pouncing on.

Chris Durell recommended Rico Hoey for Top 10 (+500) and Top 20 (+260) bets, pointing to his elite tee-to-green form, ranking first in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 24 rounds. Hoey has consistently found fairways (11th in fairways gained) and excelled with his iron play (18th in SG: Approach), leading to significant birdie opportunities (7th in opportunities gained). While historically struggling on the greens (144th in SG: Putting), Hoey had a recent strong putting performance in Houston (+2.4 strokes gained), suggesting potential continuation and opportunity to improve upon his T14 finish from the previous visit at TPC San Antonio.

Chris Durell identified Denny McCarthy as a strong outright (+2800) and Top 10 (+260) betting candidate. Although still hunting for his first PGA Tour victory, McCarthy enters the Valero Texas Open impressively consistent, making the cut in 12 straight events and finishing inside the Top 20 in four of his last five starts. He excelled here previously, notably achieving a runner-up finish last year and regularly placing well at TPC San Antonio. His strengths include elite putting (12th in SG: Putting) and iron play (10th in SG: Approach), mitigating his more average driving statistics, making him a smart play this week.

Chris Durell stated Corey Conners is his top outright bet for the Valero Texas Open. Conners enters with ideal conditions for success, holding exceptional course history at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course, including two victories (2020 and 2023) and never finishing worse than 35th in six trips. Statistically, he's second only to Jordan Spieth in career Strokes Gained: Total here. Conners is also riding excellent recent form with three consecutive Top 10s heading into the event, gaining over 7 strokes tee-to-green in each of those starts. Notably, his typically shaky putter is hot right now, further adding confidence to betting him outright.

Chris Durell highlighted Mackenzie Hughes as a solid Top-10 and Top-20 target for betting due to his standout course history at Memorial Park Golf Course. Hughes has consistently excelled here, making four consecutive top-30 finishes since the tournament moved venues, including a top-10 finish in 2021 and back-to-back finishes of 16th and 14th in recent years. Despite mediocre recent form overall, his strong affinity for Memorial Park — ranking 6th in total strokes gained at the venue — makes Hughes a dependable choice at the offered odds (+700 Top-10, +260 Top-20). Durell suggests placing heavier bets on the safer Top-20 line and moderately lighter units on the Top-10 market, advising to hold off on Top-5 or outright wagers unless odds improve leading up to tee-off.

Chris Durell strongly endorsed Davis Riley as a value option across multiple betting markets (outright, top 5, top 10, top 20) for the Texas Children's Houston Open. Riley carries impressive course history at Memorial Park, with all previous finishes within the top 30 and peaking with a T14 last season. His recent form further supports this pick, boasting two top-10 results in his last three outings. Key statistical form enhances Riley's appeal, ranking 4th in strokes gained total, 14th in driving distance, 6th in strokes gained approach, and 5th in strokes gained around the green in the recent three-event stretch. Given the substantial variance in his odds across sportsbooks, Durell advises bettors to shop for optimal value, targeting the best lines like FanDuel Sportsbook's +12000 outright.

Chris Durell recommended backing Rory McIlroy in a head-to-head matchup over Scottie Scheffler at the 2025 Texas Children's Houston Open. Despite Scheffler's strong course history at Memorial Park Golf Course, including three straight top-10 finishes and two runner-ups, Durell favors McIlroy, who enters with superior current form. Rory has secured two victories in his past four events during 2025, along with respectable 15th and 17th place finishes in the other two tournaments, highlighting exceptional recent play. Conversely, Scheffler has displayed inconsistent performance, posting just two top-10 results across five events this season, with struggles specifically in his short game, losing strokes around the green in three of those tournaments. Based on Scheffler's uneven short game form combined with Rory's strong recent showings, Durell sees value in betting McIlroy as a likely underdog in a full-tournament matchup.