Will Hill fired Packers first-quarter ML at -120. Green Bay has taken the opening kick in five of seven chances this season, while the Eagles have deferred on every coin-toss win. Hill believes the extra early possession, combined with Lambeau crowd energy, nudges the Packers’ win probability above the implied 54.5% for the opening 15 minutes.

Will Hill took Justin Herbert Over 23.5 rushing yards. The Chargers’ injury-riddled offensive line has driven Herbert’s scrambling spike—he’s logged 31, 62, and 57 rushing yards the past three weeks. Facing a Steelers front that blitzes at the league’s 5th-highest rate, Hill expects another dozen yards over expectation via broken-play scrambles and designed keepers.

Will Hill locked in Christian McCaffrey Over 51.5 receiving yards, calling it one of the best bets in football this season. The dual-threat back has cleared this number in eight of nine games, averaging 6.9 targets and 61.7 receiving yards per contest. With the Rams ranking 30th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, Hill thinks the line remains two catches too low.

Will Hill bet Jameson Williams Over 44.5 receiving yards. Williams has earned six and seven targets in two of the last three games and now gets a Washington defense surrendering the fourth-most passing yards in the league. Hill anticipates Ben Johnson dialing up multiple deep balls against cornerbacks allowing 14.8 yards per completion.

Will Hill pounced on Cardinals +6.5, advising readers to wait for a possible +7. Arizona’s five defeats have come by a combined 13 points and they actually sport a positive point differential. Hill wants to sell high on Seattle after its prime-time blowout of Washington and likes what he saw from rookie edge Walter Nolen, who notched two sacks in his debut Monday night.

Will Hill laid -125 on the Jaguars moneyline. Houston’s season took a hit when C.J. Stroud left last week with a shoulder injury; backup Davis Mills will start a must-win game for a 3-5 club. Hill trusts Trevor Lawrence and a healthier Jacksonville offense to outpace a Texans unit missing its engine, effectively ending Houston’s playoff hopes.

Will Hill played Justin Fields Under 179.5 passing yards for Browns-Jets. Cleveland owns a top-3 pass defense by DVOA and Sunday’s forecast calls for showers. Hill also noted Robert Saleh openly discussed the possibility of benching Fields mid-game after last week’s struggles, creating added downside to the passing prop.

Will Hill is fading New Orleans again with Saints team total Under 17. The bet cashed last week when they managed only 10 points versus the Rams, and now the offense loses its best field-stretching threat after dealing Rashid Shaheed to Seattle. Carolina’s defense ranks 7th in red-zone efficiency allowed, and Hill sees no reason to expect a breakout from Derek Carr’s 28th-ranked scoring unit.

Will Hill wagered on Chicago to record the game’s first first down. He pointed to recent coin-toss behavior: the Bears elected to receive the opening kick two weeks ago and have shown an aggressive script starter, while the Giants have deferred every time they’ve won the toss this season. With better than a 50-50 chance Chicago begins on offense against a bottom-five Giants run D, Hill likes the plus-money edge.

Will Hill bet J.J. McCarthy Under 208.5 passing yards. The young quarterback has yet to top 160 yards in any of his three career starts and now faces a Ravens defense allowing the league’s fewest explosive passes. Hill expects Minnesota to hide McCarthy behind a run-heavy approach, especially after last week’s upset formula of defense and clock control paid off.

Will Hill took Patriots +2.5 in the so-called Tom Brady Bowl. He noted Baker Mayfield’s early MVP buzz has fizzled as Tampa’s offense has regressed to 18.4 points per game over the last month. With both defenses ranking top-10 in EPA, Hill calls the game a coin flip and wants the field goal minus the hook in his pocket.

Will Hill played Bills team total Over 29.5, reminding readers that Josh Allen has owned Miami: Buffalo has won seven straight in the series and cleared 30 points in six of those seven. With the Dolphins still missing two starting cornerbacks and Allen averaging 34.2 points per game in South Florida since 2021, Hill expects another fireworks show Sunday.

Will Hill grabbed the Falcons +6.5 for the Germany game, arguing the 3-5 record hides how talented this roster still is. Atlanta is in must-win territory to keep pace in the NFC South, while Indianapolis just laid out heavy travel miles after back-to-back overtime games. Hill expects Arthur Smith to lean on his run game to shorten possessions and keep this one close, making the near-touchdown cushion valuable.

Hill bet Colts Team Total Over 30.5. Indy hung 41 on Tennessee back in Week 3 and has posted 38, 31 and 40 points the last three weeks. With the Titans’ defense now further depleted, Hill expects Shane Steichen’s unit to eclipse 30 yet again.

Hill laid the short 1.5 points with Houston. At 2-4, the Texans are treating Week 8 as a must-win. He acknowledged the 49ers’ resilience but pointed to their lingering injury cluster and believes the healthier, hungrier Texans pull out a season-saving victory.

Hill grabbed Saints +4.5. Tampa Bay is dealing with a ‘long list’ of offensive injuries and is on a short week after a bruising Monday night battle with Detroit. Hill labeled New Orleans 'feisty' and expects the Saints to keep things tight inside the Superdome.

Hill fired on Bijan Robinson Over 88.5 rushing yards. After being bottled up by San Francisco, Robinson now draws a Miami defense ranked near the bottom in every rushing metric. Hill expects Atlanta to lean on its bell-cow and projects a clear triple-digit yardage ceiling.

Will Hill targeted Drake Maye Over 34.5 yards for his longest completion. Maye has cleared this mark in three straight games with hookups of 39, 44 and 53 yards. Facing a Browns defense that stuffs the run, Hill expects the young quarterback to keep pushing the ball deep and cash another long-ball ticket.

Hill played Rico Dowdle Over 51.5 rushing yards. Buffalo is surrendering an NFL-worst 5.8 yards per carry, and Dowdle has ripped off 206, 183 and 79 rushing yards in his past three games. Even with Chuba Hubbard returning to the rotation, Hill believes Dowdle will see enough early-down work to smash this number against a shaky Bills front.

Hill took Commanders +12.5, noting that Marcus Mariota has delivered serviceable play when called upon. He worries the Chiefs could look ahead to next week’s showdown with Buffalo and sees 12.5 as too generous, even with Kansas City’s offense rounding into vintage form.

Hill is on Cowboys +3.5. He cited DVOA, which grades Dallas ninth and Denver 14th, and reminded readers that Bo Nix is just 2-8 when his defense allows 20-plus points. Hill expects the Cowboys’ explosive offense to force that script and cover in Denver.

Hill played the Packers to record the first first down. Pittsburgh has deferred every coin-toss win this season, and Green Bay still chooses to receive about half the time. Hill likes those odds for the Packers to start with the ball and move the sticks before Pittsburgh, adding that ‘score first’ or ‘first-quarter moneyline’ are similarly attractive.

Hill took Jets +6.5, anticipating Tyrod Taylor will start after Justin Fields was benched mid-game last week. Cincinnati’s defense remains leaky, and Hill believes the Jets’ turnover drought is due for positive regression. He even sprinkled on New York’s moneyline, calling a first win 'far from shocking.'

Will Hill sided with the Texans moneyline, citing Houston’s greater urgency after opening 0-1 compared to 1-0 Tampa Bay. With both clubs perennial division contenders and otherwise evenly matched, Hill prefers the desperate home side.

Will Hill grabbed Falcons +3.5. Minnesota is 15-3 in the regular season since 2024, but nine victories came by a single score. Hill recalled last year’s 42-21 Viking win where Atlanta still racked up nearly 500 yards but was buried by a –3 turnover margin. With Minnesota starting a rookie quarterback, Hill expects another close finish and wants the points.

Will Hill bet Ashton Jeanty Under 68.5 rushing yards. Although the rookie logged 19 carries in Week 1, he produced only 38 yards, and now faces a Chargers front that limited opposing running backs to 41 yards last week. Hill thinks the market overreacted to volume and is ignoring Las Vegas’ shaky offensive line.

Will Hill played RJ Harvey anytime TD after cashing his rushing-yards Over in Week 1. Hill called the rookie "dynamic and explosive" and expects him to seize the lead-back role quickly, making a Week 2 touchdown versus Indianapolis likely.

Will Hill bet Panthers team total Under 18.5. Carolina mustered only three points until garbage time last week, while Arizona’s rebuilt defense held New Orleans to 13. Hill expects the Cardinals to keep the Panthers under 19 in the desert.

Will Hill took the Dolphins moneyline, banking on the NFL’s frequent Week-to-Week correction where teams that looked worst rebound. He added that South Florida’s September heat and humidity remain a unique home-field edge for Miami.

Will Hill took Jared Goff Under 250.5 passing yards. New Bears head coach Ben Johnson spent three seasons as Detroit’s offensive coordinator, and Hill expects Johnson’s familiarity to stifle a Lions attack that already looked downgraded without him in Week 1’s loss to Green Bay.

Will Hill grabbed Jaguars +3.5, citing Cincinnati’s habit of slow September starts. He highlighted the Bengals’ woeful Week 1 box score—only seven second-half yards and 141 total yards—and expects another nail-biter between former No. 1 picks Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow.

Will Hill played Joe Flacco Over 240.5 passing yards. The Browns are double-digit dogs, so Hill expects negative game script to force high pass volume. He reminded readers Baltimore just surrendered nearly 400 passing yards to Buffalo in Week 1 and sees Cleveland trying to replicate the Bills’ spread-the-field approach.

Will Hill advised betting Cowboys -4.5. He argued Dallas was "every bit as good" as Philadelphia in Week 1, noting dropped passes by CeeDee Lamb cost the Cowboys a win that would have changed public perception. With extra rest and home-field advantage, Hill believes Dallas should handle what he called an "inferior" Giants roster.

Will Hill took the Jets +6.5, pointing out that Josh Allen and the Bills have dropped two of their past three Meadowlands trips and the lone Buffalo win came 23-20 after New York missed a pair of makeable field goals. Despite the Bills’ reputation as an elite team, recent head-to-head data suggests this matchup stays within one score yet again.

Hill bet RJ Harvey Over 34.5 rushing yards. While Sean Payton traditionally rotates backs, Harvey was drafted early to be the lead option. Denver is a sizeable favorite, and Hill expects a run-heavy second half that lets the rookie cruise past the low threshold.

Hill snagged Saints +6.5, arguing the line treats Arizona like a proven juggernaut when the young Cardinals have yet to earn that status. Even if New Orleans struggles this season, Hill cannot justify laying nearly a touchdown with a road team still finding its identity.

Hill played Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 rushing attempts. The sixth overall pick now works for new Raiders coach Pete Carroll, a noted run-first disciple. Hill believes Carroll will lean heavily on his prized back right out of the gate, especially in a matchup where Las Vegas projects to control neutral-situation snaps. That volume should clear the modest attempts prop.

Hill took Browns +5.5, citing Cincinnati’s chronic slow starts. The Bengals have dropped four of their last five openers and were blown out 24-3 in Cleveland two years ago. Historical data shows home divisional dogs in Week 1 hit at a healthy clip, and Hill is happy to fade a rusty Joe Burrow while banking on the Dawg Pound energy to keep this within the number.

Hill grabbed Giants +6.5, pointing out that Washington swept the series in 2024 but did so by only eight combined points. He called the Commanders’ 12-win campaign smoke-and-mirrors, boosted by good fortune in one-score games and a soft slate of opposing quarterbacks. Hill expects a tighter affair and believes the generous spread overstates the gap between NFC East rivals.

Will Hill backed George Pickens to clear 55.5 receiving yards in the opener at Philadelphia. Hill noted Pickens finally escapes the erratic quarterback play he endured in Pittsburgh and lands in a more pass-centric attack with Dak Prescott. Because CeeDee Lamb commands extra coverage, Hill expects Pickens to see softer matchups on the perimeter. With Dallas listed as an 8.5-point underdog, Hill anticipates a catch-up game script that forces Prescott north of 35 attempts, giving Pickens enough volume to sail past the posted total.

Even with the Yankees installed as –132 favorites, Data Skrive projected a 50/50 win probability and a 6-5 Dodgers victory, creating perceived value on Los Angeles at +113. Supporting notes included: the Dodgers’ only other game as a +113 or longer dog resulted in a win, while the Yankees have played exceptionally well as favorites (9-1 last ten) — a run the model pegs as unsustainable given their modest 4.7 runs per game and looming bullpen regression. Meanwhile, L.A.’s lineup is surging behind Shohei Ohtani (MLB-leading 20 HR) and Freddie Freeman’s .359 average. Bettors comfortable fading an inflated Yankees tax can grab the Dodgers moneyline or +1.5 runs at –145.

Data Skrive’s projection engine spit out a 6-5 final in Los Angeles and labeled the 9-run total too low. Their write-up pointed to several pace-up indicators: the Dodgers have cashed the over in six of their last ten, the Yankees and Dodgers combine to average 9.3 runs per game (4.7 for New York, 4.6 for L.A.), and both clubs rank top-10 in homers during that stretch (Yankees 10, Dodgers 11). Despite New York’s stingy 1.82 staff ERA over the past ten, the model expects regression with both bullpens trending toward the middle on xFIP. DraftKings and most shops have the over juiced to –109, making it a playable number before it creeps to 9.5.

Data Skrive projected a 7-6 final in Milwaukee, endorsing the Over on the 8.5-run total. Their model leans that way because Boston is scoring 4.6 runs per game with 12 homers over its past 10 contests, while Milwaukee is at 4.2 runs and nine homers in the same window. Both clubs have hit the over in half of those recent games (5 of 10 for each). Add in American Family Field’s reputation as a top-10 run-environment and neither bullpen sporting an ERA under 3.80 (Brewers 3.85, Red Sox 4.10 in the last 10), and the algorithm expects combined damage to clear the number more often than not.

Data Skrive assigned Milwaukee a 52% win probability and still tagged the Brewers as the side at a modest -120 price. Milwaukee has thrived in this range all season, winning 15 of 19 games (78.9%) when priced -120 or shorter and 19 of 28 overall as a favorite (67.9%). Boston, meanwhile, has cashed only 46.7% of its 15 games as an underdog and is 6-5 when listed +100 or longer. Given the Brewers’ stronger bullpen (9.2 K/9 over the last 10) and home-field edge, the model shows a sliver of value on the Crew to take the series opener.

Data Skrive projected a 6-4 final score (10 total runs) for Saturday's Yankees-Rockies clash and recommended playing Under 11.5. Their model noted New York games have cashed the over only twice in the last 10, while Colorado has stayed under in six of its past ten. Despite Coors Field's reputation for offense, the combined team wOBA over the past week sits just .320, down from the park-adjusted league average of .330. The pitching matchup was not listed, but the projection still produced only a 10-run median outcome, giving bettors more than a run and a half of cushion versus the posted total.