Free Picks PickDawgz

Millz Young supports taking Framber Valdez' strikeouts, emphasizing Valdez's ability to regularly pitch deep into games—often reaching the seventh inning or beyond. Due to this extended workload and consistent strikeout ability, Valdez offers strong value on his strikeout prop tonight.

Millz Young advises taking Paul Skenes over 7.5 strikeouts against the Seattle Mariners. He acknowledges the line appears high but believes Skenes will keep the game competitive and achieve the necessary strikeouts due to his talent and favorable matchup.

Millz Young endorses Zac Gallen's strikeout prop against the Yankees, specifically liking it if set at 5.5. Young highlights that Gallen has established himself as one of MLB's premier strikeout pitchers over the past three seasons and expects him to record at least six Ks, additionally giving the Diamondbacks a good chance at securing the win.

Millz Young likes Blake Snell over 7.5 strikeouts against the Atlanta Braves, noting that Snell has exceeded this line at a 60% rate. Though the number seems high, Young emphasizes the Braves' recent strikeout tendencies, suggesting Snell should land around eight strikeouts tonight.

Eric Pathi recommends betting on the Colorado Rockies plus 1.5 runs at plus money against the Phillies. His analytical approach highlights why betting plus 1.5 at positive odds is consistently valuable. Pathi notes that MLB underdogs straight up are currently 27-40 (40.3%) yet profitable due to large payouts, while favorites (40-28) yield a losing proposition despite appearing strong by record. Crucially, he stresses betting the plus 1.5 runline only provides true value when available at plus odds rather than negative juice. Pathi also cited early season trends proving the Rockies have been MLB's best home team from a betting profit perspective, enhancing their attractiveness early on. Given these foundational statistics and observed market behaviors, Pathi advises confidently backing the Rockies runline position at a positive price.

Eric Pathi recommends betting on the Colorado Rockies plus 1.5 runs at plus money against the Phillies. His analytical approach highlights why betting plus 1.5 at positive odds is consistently valuable. Pathi notes that MLB underdogs straight up are currently 27-40 (40.3%) yet profitable due to large payouts, while favorites (40-28) yield a losing proposition despite appearing strong by record. Crucially, he stresses betting the plus 1.5 runline only provides true value when available at plus odds rather than negative juice. Pathi also cited early season trends proving the Rockies have been MLB's best home team from a betting profit perspective, enhancing their attractiveness early on. Given these foundational statistics and observed market behaviors, Pathi advises confidently backing the Rockies runline position at a positive price.

Dana Lane recommended betting the New York Mets on the run line (-1.5) at +114 against the Miami Marlins on April 1, citing multiple reasons to back the Mets. He highlighted pitcher Kodai Senga's excellent 13-7 season in 2024 with a 2.99 ERA and 211 strikeouts over 171.2 innings, and a strong spring training performance that indicates he's ready again. Lane expressed skepticism about Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara's long-term effectiveness coming off Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss 2024, noting Alcantara started losing command after three innings against a weaker Pittsburgh Pirates lineup. Lane saw the Marlins overall as one of MLB's bottom teams, with a weak bullpen and severe lack of offensive star power beyond Otto Lopez. Given the Mets' recent 10-4 blowout win over Miami and improved hitting from Pete Alonso and Starling Marte, Lane is bullish on a Mets run line play, expecting another comfortable win.

Eric Pathi strongly recommended an "auto chase" betting strategy for betting MLB underdogs coming off big upset wins, specifically referencing the White Sox. He explained that betting underdogs after they win outright as dogs tends to be profitable due to public sentiment driving bettors to blindly back favored teams like the Twins, assuming they cannot lose consecutive games. He advised strongly against typical pitcher-focused analysis (ERAs and starter names) unless wagering specifically on the first five innings. Instead, Pathi asserted there is significant value in betting the White Sox again following their commanding upset 9-0 victory as substantial +200 underdogs against Minnesota, noting the Twins being large favorites the following day (-180) only adds to the betting value.

Brad Francis likes the Cubs betting-wise to win again against Oakland, citing their dominance on the road against the A's. He referenced a notable trend: the Cubs have now won seven straight games when playing on the road against the Athletics. After an easy win the day before, Brad expects them to continue rolling based on past performance and the A's ongoing struggles.

Brad Francis likes the Cubs betting-wise to win again against Oakland, citing their dominance on the road against the A's. He referenced a notable trend: the Cubs have now won seven straight games when playing on the road against the Athletics. After an easy win the day before, Brad expects them to continue rolling based on past performance and the A's ongoing struggles.

Brad Francis recommended taking the Royals on the moneyline against the Brewers. He justified this bet by highlighting the Royals' impressive streak as road favorites, having won seven straight in that position dating back to last year. Brad also noted the Brewers are struggling heavily at the moment, pointing to their poor recent performances, including getting dominated by the Royals in their previous matchup.

Brad Francis recommended taking the Royals on the moneyline against the Brewers. He justified this bet by highlighting the Royals' impressive streak as road favorites, having won seven straight in that position dating back to last year. Brad also noted the Brewers are struggling heavily at the moment, pointing to their poor recent performances, including getting dominated by the Royals in their previous matchup.

Brad Francis is backing the Tigers as underdogs against the Mariners. His rationale stems from Detroit's improving profile as they've won each of their last five games when listed as underdogs against AL West opposition dating back to last year. While acknowledging Seattle boasts the strongest pitching rotation in baseball, Brad heavily criticizes their anemic offense. He refuses to trust the Mariners until they significantly improve their hitting, creating substantial value on Detroit as a road dog tonight.

Brad Francis recommends backing the Cubs money line against the Athletics, citing a very strong historical trend: Chicago has won each of their last six games on the road when facing Oakland. This head-to-head dominance gives Brad strong conviction, leading him to confidently endorse the Cubs in this specific matchup tonight.

Brad Francis tags the Twins run line against the White Sox as his best bet of the day, noting that Chicago has failed to cover the run line at home against the AL Central in eight straight games dating back to last year. Furthermore, the Twins come into this matchup having had an unexpectedly rough series against the Cardinals. Brad strongly believes Minnesota is a better team than their recent performances suggest, anticipating they'll channel their frustration into a commanding victory against the White Sox, making the Twins run line his top confidence pick.

Eric Pathi recommended confidently taking the Cleveland Guardians at plus 36 cents strictly due to their recent success as an underdog winner. He pointed to recent betting history, specifically citing the example of St. Louis Cardinals, who followed a dog win with another profitable underdog win. Pathi emphasized that baseball betting strategy can be simple and efficient by consistently backing an underdog following a victory as an underdog, asserting that it yields positive returns and avoids unnecessary betting complexity.

Eric Pathi explicitly advised bettors to avoid consistently betting on the Dodgers, particularly on the run line or as large favorites, due to poor long-term profitability. Despite the Dodgers' projected 100-win season, Pathi explained that bettors following them closely on money lines at minus odds (-1.5 at negative odds or heavy money-line favorites) ultimately lose money over the course of a season. He reinforced that bookmakers will not offer profitable odds for such a popular and traditionally favored team, making Dodgers' games a financially harmful betting prospect long-term. Instead, Pathi recommended taking plus 1.5 at plus money scenarios, calling this type of bet "Nirvana" and exceptionally profitable long-term betting strategy in MLB.

Millz Young singled out Elly De La Cruz as a bounce-back candidate after starting quietly in the first two games, taking him confidently to exceed 1.5 total bases. Millz highlighted De La Cruz's capability to get on base and steal bags, referencing past performances. He also suggested De La Cruz might even go yard in this matchup, noting that other superstars like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have already started hitting home runs, reinforcing a broader trend of star hitters warming up early in the season.

Millz Young confidently called for Fernando Tatis to achieve at least one hit against Atlanta, highlighting that Tatis has successfully gone over 0.5 hits in each of his last three matchups against the Braves, including a home run in a previous game. Millz even entertained the possibility of Tatis hitting another home run tonight, underscoring his offensive consistency versus Atlanta.

Brad Francis highlighted betting on the San Francisco Giants against Cincinnati, focusing on the Reds' struggles as underdogs being on a seven-game losing streak dating back to last season. He expressed confidence in the Giants' strength and current outlook, expecting a strong performance in this matchup.

Eric Pathi recommended betting on the Colorado Rockies as an underdog against the Rays on Sunday due to a distinct betting trend. Pathi emphasized a strategy of backing underdog teams coming off a win, noting that baseball is a game of momentum and streaks. He specifically highlighted that regardless of pitching matchups, any underdog who wins one day and is priced again as an underdog the next day represents strong betting value. The Rockies already won as underdogs on the previous day, thereby fitting Pathi's profitable 'dog-after-win' scenario, a fundamental aspect of his overall MLB underdog betting system, which emphasizes volume and selective trend betting for consistent profit.

Chris Ruffolo is confident in Eugenio Suarez hitting a home run versus Jameson Taillon of the Cubs, citing Suarez's productive history vs the pitcher. Despite a moderate .219 average (7 for 32 lifetime), Suarez has recorded five extra-base hits with three homers against Taillon. Ruffolo dislikes Taillon's pitching style, mentioning long-standing doubts from Taillon's previous stints (Pirates, Cubs, Yankees). Suarez is off to a solid start, making his +400 odds appealing.

Chris Ruffolo advocates backing Adolis Garcia to hit a home run against Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. Garcia has historically performed very well versus Houck, hitting four-for-seven with two home runs in their previous matchups. Although Houck typically limits homers, Ruffolo believes Garcia's bat carries enough power, making the +550 price appealing for a home run prop.

Chris Ruffolo likes Alex Bregman to homer against Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter due to Leiter's struggles last year. Leiter posted a high ERA just under nine in his first major-league campaign. Ruffolo expects Bregman to capitalize on Leiter's vulnerability, despite Bregman's quiet debut with the Red Sox. With attractive odds at +450, it's a good buy on Bregman to leave the yard.

Dana Lane advised backing Tanner Houck and the Red Sox with confidence against the Texas Rangers, specifically on the run line (-1.5). Lane acknowledged Houck experienced considerable difficulties during spring training, resulting in a concerning 11.25 ERA. However, Lane believes Houck will respond strongly in his season debut, noting the pressure Houck faces to justify his role as the Red Sox's number two starter. Lane emphasized the Red Sox's high expectations for Houck entering his crucial fifth MLB season, predicting a strong bounce-back performance and recommending taking advantage of the attractive plus-money price (+130).

Dana Lane recommended betting against Jack Leiter in his season debut against the Red Sox. Lane highlighted concerns around Leiter's limited MLB experience, noting he has yet to earn his first MLB win, posting three losses in six starts last year. Leiter had an average spring training, and Lane expressed doubts about his readiness and the heavy expectations placed on the young pitcher to anchor the rotation of a team aspiring toward a deep playoff run. Lane expects Boston to capitalize on Leiter's early-season uncertainty and projected struggles.

Brad Francis strongly recommended betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks money line against the Cubs. While acknowledging the Diamondbacks disappointed bettors the previous day, he noted a favorable trend: the Cubs have lost four straight games when playing as an underdog following a win. Despite recognizing that the Cubs were hitting well yesterday, Brad confidently predicted the Diamondbacks would regain form and secure a bounce-back win, considering the team solidly equipped to avoid losing two straight to the Cubs.

Eric Pathi recommended taking a contrarian angle on the Colorado Rockies due to public overreaction regarding their road performance. Pathi highlighted that Colorado has a well-known betting trend of being exceptionally profitable at home while significantly struggling on the road, causing bettors to undervalue them dramatically when traveling. Given the early season lack of detailed information, Pathi believes bookmakers will overcompensate by inflating odds against them when playing away games. He specifically noted that betting plus one-and-a-half runs at plus money is one of the best value wagers available in baseball, emphasizing its consistent long-term profitability. Therefore, Pathi recommended betting the Rockies either on the moneyline at substantial plus odds or plus one-and-a-half runs if you can secure it at positive odds.

Chris Ruffolo spots compelling home run value on Nick Castellanos at a juicy +650 against Washington Nationals pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Ruffolo labels Gore as a "home run magnet," citing Gore's vulnerability to allowing hard contact consistently and a career ERA nearing 5 against the Phillies. Castellanos historically thrives against Gore specifically, sporting a .350 batting average (7-for-20) and two home runs in their head-to-head meetings. Ruffolo believes Castellanos is positioned to capitalize on this advantageous matchup to kickstart his 2025 season with a homer.

Chris Ruffolo backs Bobby Witt Jr. at +425 to hit a home run against the Guardians on opening day. He mentioned Witt's outstanding .382 batting average at home last year, highlighting his league-leading 54 extra base hits at Kauffman Stadium. Witt Jr. also started last season hot, going 6-for-11 with five extra base hits, including one bomb, in his opening series versus Minnesota. Although recognizing Tanner Bybee isn't an easy pitcher for homers, Ruffolo noted 22 of Bybee's career-allowed 35 homers were hit when pitching away from home. Given his exceptional home success, Ruffolo expects Witt Jr.'s strong home trends to continue on opening day.

Chris Ruffolo is all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to homer on opening day at attractive odds of +550. He highlights Vladie's current contract year scenario, with heavy offseason speculation around whether he was asking for too much money or if the Blue Jays have shortchanged him. Guerrero typically thrives under pressure, and Zach Eflin is considered a weak opponent, someone Ruffolo categorically believes doesn't belong as an opening day starter. Ruffolo expects Guerrero Jr. to emphatically kick off the season, crushing a home run off Eflin to set the tone and justify his contract worthiness.

Dana Lane advised backing Logan Webb and the Giants on Opening Day at roughly a PK (-110 each way) against the Reds, highlighting several compelling factors. Logan Webb is a reliable starter, coming off an excellent spring training in which he went 3-0 with a dominant 1.77 ERA over five Cactus League starts. Historically, he has won at least 10 games in each of the past four seasons, combining for a strong 50-29 record. Dana Lane emphasized Webb's readiness compared to Reds starter Hunter Greene, who struggled significantly during spring training, posting a 5.57 ERA over six starts and attempting to reach double-digit wins for the first time in his professional career. Additionally, despite heavy public betting action (75% of tickets) on Cincinnati, the betting line moved in favor of San Francisco, indicating smart money from professional bettors backing Webb and the Giants.

Chris Ruffolo sees value in backing the Cleveland Guardians against the Kansas City Royals on MLB Opening Day (March 27, 2025). He emphasizes Guardians' strong and deep pitching staff led by ace-level talent John Means, and potentially healthy arms Tanner Bibee, Shane Bieber, and Triston McKenzie. Ruffolo also highlights the Guardians' superior bullpen strength relative to Kansas City. A critical factor is Royals opening day starter Cole Ragans' struggles specifically against Cleveland last season (6.23 ERA in two starts). Ruffolo notes Ragans' stark home-road splits, performing much worse at home (3.40 ERA) compared to his stellar road performances (2.87 ERA). Ruffolo believes these pitching differences provide early-season betting value on Cleveland, especially since the public may overvalue Kansas City based on last year's surprising performance.

Chris Ruffolo said to fade Zachary Wheeler in his opening day start, pointing out that the betting public tends to overvalue pitchers based on prior season's results. Ruffolo emphasized that spring training performances in Florida are irrelevant and suggested that Wheeler's strong win totals from the previous year have inflated his betting lines. For value, Ruffolo recommends backing the Nationals as sizeable underdogs (+35, 45, or 55 cents), emphasizing the importance of shopping around for the best dime line value at various sportsbooks to maximize returns. Early-season betting methods, according to Ruffolo, revolve around fading pitchers who the public heavily bets due to high win totals from last year.

Chris Ruffolo highlighted the Oakland Athletics as a team to watch for future betting opportunities due to key offseason improvements and roster developments. He specifically mentioned the acquisitions of veterans Luis Severino (signed on a two-year deal), left-handed pitcher Jeffrey Springs from Tampa Bay Rays, and reliever Jose Leclerc as promising signings to bolster the pitching staff and bullpen depth. Additionally, Ruffolo praised Oakland's young core, including catcher Shea Langeliers, prospect Zack Gelof, infielder Tyler Soderstrom, and several solid outfield talents like JJ Bleday, Seth Brown, Lawrence Butler, and Esteury Ruiz — particularly noting Ruiz's base-stealing ability and Brent Rooker's power upside. Ruffolo advises bettors to identify situations this season when the young Athletics roster could offer substantial betting value despite generally low expectations.

Chris Ruffolo favors the Seattle Mariners to win against Oakland on opening day, largely due to the strength of Logan Gilbert as their starting pitcher. Gilbert posted a strong 2.49 ERA at home last season even though his win-loss record (5-5) didn’t reflect his effectiveness, which was partially dragged down by poor run support and bullpen issues. Ruffolo specifically highlighted several of Gilbert's second-half home starts after the All-Star break, where he threw quality innings with minimal runs allowed but received two runs or fewer in offensive support. Ruffolo believes Seattle's offense should improve, pointing out their traditional success and stronger performance at home. Although acknowledging the Athletics' improvements and youth development, Ruffolo asserts opening day presents the Mariners as the superior option for bettors.