Noonan is off Aberg at 33-1. The Swede MC’d at Torrey, withdrew from the AmEx, and arrives with little momentum. Pebble minimizes driver advantage, highlighting wedges—Aberg’s weakest link. Noonan notes the runner-up finish in the 2024 weather-shortened edition came in far better form, and asking for a repeat against the year’s deepest field feels overly optimistic.

Stewart is fading Schauffele at 22-1, noting two forgettable 2026 starts (MC and T-41) plus zero top-50 finishes in two prior Pro-Am appearances. Around-the-green play remains inconsistent after last year’s rib injury. Until all facets return, Stewart sees no value in backing Xander on a venue emphasizing scrambling and wedges.

Noonan tacked on Henley +320 for a top-10, citing the Georgia Bulldog’s record on "short" or "very short" layouts: nine starts since 2025, eight T-19 or better, six T-10 or better. Henley was T-5 here last year while ranking seventh in SG/approach and first in putting. With Pebble again demanding wedges and accuracy, Noonan sees another high-floor, high-ceiling week incoming.

Stewart played McNealy +290 for a top-10. The Stanford product owns a runner-up and a top-five in seven Pro-Am appearances and is +6.8 SG/total per start across three 2026 events, gaining in every major category. Stewart expects the California native’s comfort on Poa and short-course skill set to cash double-digit equity.

Andy Lack took Patrick Cantlay -105 over Cameron Young. Cantlay owns multiple top-5s at Pebble while Young has yet to crack the top 70 in three tries and just lost strokes on approach in Phoenix. Lack sees nothing in Young’s current profile to overcome that course-fit disparity.

Noonan laid -111 on Berger over Shane Lowry. Over the past eight seasons at Pebble and comparable layouts, only Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay have gained more strokes tee-to-green than Berger. A Sunday 65 at Scottsdale featured 5.4 SG via ball-striking, convincing Noonan the 2021 champ’s form is trending higher than Lowry’s despite the Irishman’s hot irons.

Stewart bet Jason Day +100 over Harris English, noting English’s lukewarm 22-28-28 finishes to open 2026 and a Pebble resume that tops out at T-40 with one missed cut. Day owns nine top-10s in 15 career Pro-Am starts and arrives with a hot iron game, making the even-money price an easy click.

Mayo played Straka +112 in a head-to-head versus Keegan Bradley. Straka’s T-18 at the WM Phoenix Open flew under the radar but signaled his irons are dialed. Bradley has followed a missed cut at the American Express with a lukewarm T-43 at Torrey and historically loses strokes putting on Poa annua. Mayo expects Straka’s steadier profile to prevail.

Stephen Hennessey grabbed Shane Lowry at 64-1 after the Irishman gained nearly 18 strokes on approach across two DP World Tour starts in Dubai. Lowry finished runner-up to Rory here last year and picked up more than a stroke per round with the putter. Hennessey thinks any semblance of that flat-stick performance paired with the current iron heater will have Lowry firmly in Sunday contention again.

Noonan’s preferred dark horse is Jason Day at 46-1. Day has gained two or more strokes on the field in 59.3% of his measured rounds at Pebble over the last eight years—the highest rate of anyone with at least eight rounds. His worst finish in that stretch is a T-24 in 2022. With the Aussie’s irons heating up early in 2026, Noonan believes another coastal top-5 (or win) is squarely in play.

Stewart tabbed Pierceson Coody at 66-1 as his favorite long shot. Coody ranks No. 1 in this field in strokes gained putting on Poa annua greens and has opened 2026 with finishes of T-13, T-18, solo 2nd (Torrey Pines) and T-10. Stewart likes that Coody’s runner-up came on another Pacific Poa track and sees his current ball-striking as good enough to challenge Scheffler if the putter cooperates.

Ryan Noonan laid the juice on Scheffler at +300, citing data from the Betsperts Rabbit Hole. Since switching to a mallet putter at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Scheffler is gaining 2.81 strokes per round in strong-field events, a full 1.2 strokes better than second-best Rory McIlroy. He has gained strokes in 105 of 120 rounds (87.5%) during that span and cleared +2 SG in 69% of them. Tee-to-green he’s lapping the field by 1.26 strokes per round. Noonan thinks the near-miss in Scottsdale with his “B game” only reinforces how large the gap remains heading into Pebble.

Keith Stewart also planted a flag on Henley at 33-1, noting that if you built a prototype Pebble player it would look exactly like him: elite with wedges, elite in windy coastal settings, and an excellent bunker player—vital with 116 traps guarding Pebble’s tiny greens. Henley has already logged a T-5 here, owns a signature win at Bay Hill, and has opened the new campaign with back-to-back top-19 finishes. Stewart trusts those trend lines over shelling out 3-1 on Scottie Scheffler.

Pat Mayo fired on Russell Henley at 33-1, calling Pebble Beach an "ideal course fit" for the tour’s premier short-iron player. Mayo pointed out that Henley finished T-5 here last season and opened 2026 with a fast start at the American Express. With Pebble’s par-72 measuring under 7,000 yards, players see a steady diet of approaches inside 150 yards—Henley’s statistical wheelhouse—so Mayo expects him to gain significant strokes on approach and with the wedges once again.

Stewart bet Si Woo Kim +255 for a top-10 finish. Kim is averaging +7 SG tee-to-green per start in 2026 after 11th at Sony, 6th at AMEX (54-hole leader) and runner-up at Farmers where he even gained with the putter. He has not finished outside 26th at Scottsdale in the past four years, making the 10-place ticket highly attractive.

Mayo took Coody +550 for a top-10. The rookie led the Torrey Pines field in driving and has opened the season T-18, T-20, T-2. Scottsdale rewards drivers, and Mayo sees no reason the heater stops with 10 places to cash.

Noonan played Corey Conners +100 over Sahith Theegala. Conners keeps it in play off the tee and ranks fifth in SG:Putting on fast greens over the past 12 months, a sneaky advantage on Scottsdale’s slick surfaces. He trusts Conners’ tee-to-green steadiness to win this coin flip.

Mayo paired his outright stance with a matchup: Cameron Young ‑110 vs. Hideki Matsuyama at Coolbet. He is essentially betting his favorite play against his biggest fade, leaning on Young’s elite driver and recent iron form versus Hideki’s declining tee game.

Andy Lack is betting against J.J. Spaun at 33-1, forecasting regression after last year’s U.S. Open win. Spaun has opened 2026 with lackluster results at the Sony and Farmers yet is still priced as an elite. Lack sees no value.

Hennessey dismissed Sam Burns at 22-1, citing a mediocre showing at The American Express—an event he normally dominates—and a poor Phoenix history (three missed cuts in seven tries). He needs to see more before paying this price.

Ryan Noonan is out on Jake Knapp at 40-1 after tracking a ‑0.52 SG:Approach trend over the last 24 rounds. The recent top-11 and top-5 finishes have been entirely putter-driven, a profile Noonan refuses to chase on a ball-striker’s track like Scottsdale.

Keith Stewart wants no part of Xander Schauffele at 20-1. He feels Schauffele’s ball-striking ‘has not been the same’ since last year’s rib injury, noting Phoenix demands great driving every round. Stewart expects Xander to focus on fixing his swing ahead of major season rather than peaking this week.

Mayo is fading Hideki Matsuyama at 25-1, arguing the driver has fallen far from the level that powered his back-to-back Phoenix wins. Without the elite off-the-tee numbers, Mayo sees no reason Matsuyama should still sit among the betting favorites and is passing entirely.

Andy Lack stayed on Rasmus Hojgaard at 66-1 despite last week’s 30th. Hojgaard gained over a stroke off the tee in three rounds at Torrey, and he finished 12th in Phoenix a year ago. Lack believes the combination of distance and desert course comfort makes the Dane live at the number.

Powers called the 150-1 number on Max Greyserman ‘flat-out disrespectful.’ Greyserman owns six top-four finishes in the last 18 months, and Powers believes it is a matter of when—not if—the rookie breaks through. At triple-digit odds he is happy to pay to find out.

Hennessey grabbed Andrew Novak at 76-1 (no-Scheffler market), noting Novak matched Justin Rose’s SG:Approach numbers at Torrey and openly loves this event (T-8 in 2024 per his past Loop podcast appearance). With the irons heating up, Novak offers win equity at long odds if he keeps the driver steady.

Mayo labeled Brooks Koepka a live 45-1 sleeper after seeing him rank 11th tee-to-green on the South Course at Torrey despite hemorrhaging 7.23 strokes putting. Koepka has never lost strokes putting in five Phoenix starts (two wins, a T-3) and gains 3.37 strokes on these greens on average. With evidence the putting stroke improved during a Saturday night range session, Mayo thinks a classic bounce-back is imminent.

Christopher Powers could not quit Jordan Spieth at 50-1 owing to the Texan’s ridiculous TPC Scottsdale resume: T-4, T-6, T-6, T-60, T-4 across his last five starts. Powers cited Ron Klos’ DFS research showing course history is unusually predictive here and argued those four top-6 finishes signal legitimate win upside even if Spieth’s week-to-week form is volatile.

Stephen Hennessey attacked Bet365’s ‘without Scottie Scheffler’ board, buying Kurt Kitayama at 56-1. The 3M Open champ ranks top-20 both off-the-tee and on approach over the last 12 months and is top-20 in SG:Total at TPC Scottsdale across his career. Hennessey acknowledged Kitayama has lost strokes putting in every start since August but argued that even neutral putting on Scottsdale’s flatter surfaces puts him firmly in the mix for a silver medal behind Scheffler.

Ryan Noonan also fired on McNealy (33-1). He noted McNealy’s ball speed is up two mph in 2026, pairing the newfound distance with sharper irons and an already elite short game. McNealy ranked second in proximity from 150-175 yards on Sunday at Torrey and has finished T-6 and T-9 the past two trips to Scottsdale, all signs he can contend if Scottie Scheffler falters.

Keith Stewart grabbed Maverick McNealy at 35-1, pointing to an average of 5.5 strokes gained per start in 2026 while gaining in every single SG category both weeks. McNealy just posted a top-10 at the Farmers and owns a sixth and ninth the last two years at TPC Scottsdale, reinforcing course fit.

Stewart fired Brooks Koepka +162 over J.J. Spaun at FanDuel. Spaun has lost strokes putting in four straight measured events and historically struggles at Scottsdale, while Koepka’s 11th-best tee-to-green showing at Torrey and two prior Phoenix wins hint he is trending.

Pat Mayo backed Cameron Young at 25-1 to win in Scottsdale, noting that Torrey Pines showed the rust is gone: Young gained at least 2.85 strokes on approach for the fifth time in his last six starts and his elite driver remains intact, a must when players hit driver on roughly 90% of holes at TPC Scottsdale. Mayo added that Young has averaged +6.31 strokes putting across the past two Phoenix Opens, so a normal ball-striking week paired with that desert putting comfort gives him true win equity.

Ryan Noonan wagered McNealy +360 for a top-10 after noticing increased ball speed at Waialae. McNealy already posted top-5s last year at the Memorial and BMW—both long, demanding layouts—and finished runner-up to Aberg on Torrey South last February. A California native comfortable on Poa, Noonan expects those traits to translate into another high finish.

Pat Mayo grabbed Nicolai Hojgaard +600 for a top-10. Hojgaard sits fifth in ball speed and third in distance in this field and arrives off a T-3 and T-11 in the DP World Tour playoffs plus a T-4 in Dubai. He finished second in his lone Farmers start two years ago, reinforcing the course fit.

Keith Stewart played Harris English ‑118 over Will Zalatoris. He highlighted English’s nine made weekends in 12 Torrey starts and accurate U.S. Open-style fairway/green game. Zalatoris showed promise at the AmEx in his lone start back from back surgery, but Stewart thinks Torrey’s tougher test makes the defending champ English the safer side.

Pat Mayo is fading Hideki Matsuyama at 28-1, contending that Torrey forces Matsuyama to simultaneously drive and putt above his typical baseline—something Mayo is willing to bet against at that price.

Christopher Powers made Patrick Rodgers his 60-1 sleeper, pointing to four top-10s in 11 Torrey starts and three top-7 finishes in his past five PGA Tour events. Powers argued Rodgers always elevates on California Poa and feels "closer than ever" to that elusive first win.

Stephen Hennessey called the triple-digit 175-1 on Tony Finau "a sucker bet I cannot resist." Finau owns the best strokes-gained total at Torrey of anyone with multiple starts, thanks to power, rough-extraction skill, and scrambling. While his world ranking has cratered to 107th after three straight missed cuts, Hennessey thinks one decent putting week would put him back in the mix and regrets passing at that number if it happens.

Ryan Noonan took a 75-1 flyer on Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, fresh off winning the Australian Open over a field that included Rory McIlroy and Cameron Smith. Noonan loves the Dane’s ability to "dial up distance" when needed, noting his T-12 at Oakmont where he ranked seventh in strokes-gained tee-to-green. The putter is volatile, but Noonan thinks Torrey’s thick rough and long-iron tests accentuate RNP’s strengths enough to justify the price.

Keith Stewart labeled Sam Stevens a dangerous sleeper at 45-1. Stevens has gained strokes off-the-tee in 14 consecutive measured events and finished runner-up at Torrey last year as well as at two other bomber-friendly venues (TPC Twin Cities and TPC San Antonio). Coming off a sixth at the AmEx where his irons spiked, Stewart believes the timing is ideal for another high-finish or first win.

For a dark-horse dart, Pat Mayo grabbed Pierceson Coody at 66-1. Coody ranks first in this field in strokes-gained off-the-tee over the past six months thanks to a combo of third in distance and 35th in accuracy. Mayo added that Coody’s short game has quietly climbed to 26th in the same span and that he opened 2026 with two straight top-15s, proving the ceiling is already showing.

Andy Lack fired on Taylor Pendrith at 40-1, pointing to back-to-back top-10s in his only two Torrey starts. Lack highlighted Pendrith’s combination of elite distance, underrated short-game touch, and streaky but explosive putting—an exact recipe, he said, for surviving Torrey’s brutal long-iron demands and Poa greens.

Christopher Powers bet Jason Day outright at 28-1, citing a perfect storm: Day has always thrived on the Torrey cliffs and just opened 2026 with a T-2 at the AmEx where he led the field in total strokes-gained. Powers views that ball-striking surge, combined with Day’s historically elite short game on Poa greens, as a green light to hit the number now before it shortens.

Stephen Hennessey called the 60-1 on Justin Rose "too good to pass up." He is ignoring Rose’s missed cut at the AmEx, pointing instead to last season’s win at the FedEx St. Jude, a playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at Augusta, and another Sunday charge at Pebble. Rose also owns the 2019 Farmers title and a pile of strong finishes at Torrey. Hennessey thinks the Englishman’s well-rounded game plus elite Poa Annua putting make him a live longshot.

Ryan Noonan grabbed Ludvig Aberg at 18-1, arguing the withdrawal at last week’s American Express created a rare discount. Noonan reminded readers Aberg opened last year’s Farmers with a 63 on the North Course and later won the Genesis Invitational on Torrey South. He calls the Swede "built in a lab for venues like this" thanks to elite speed and high-end iron play, and thinks anything longer than the 11-1 price Aberg commanded here a year ago is value.

Keith Stewart backed Cameron Young at the same 22-1 number, stressing a new weapon: Young has out-putted the field in 16 of 18 starts since the Masters. Add that improvement to his already world-class driving and to a Torrey Pines layout Stewart called a "perfect fit," and the Read The Line founder believes Young should be on the short list of favorites. Stewart also cited Young’s impressive Ryder Cup match-play run as proof he’s ready for a statement win.

Pat Mayo said Cameron Young is worth an outright bet at 22-1 because Torrey Pines rewards elite drivers and Young is "the top driver in the field." Mayo noted Young’s recent breakthrough victory at the Wyndham, his habit of charging leaderboards on difficult tracks, and the narrative boost a Torrey win would give his major-championship profile. Mayo even arranged a boosted number at a Canadian book, calling the price the best available worldwide.

Ryan Noonan grabbed Keegan Bradley +275 for a Top-10, pointing out that Bradley’s 11 top-20 finishes last season were his most in over a decade despite juggling Ryder Cup captaincy duties. The Travelers champion has been in Sunday contention at Waialae three of the past four years, and Noonan trusts his reliable tee-to-green game on a layout that minimizes distance and spotlights precision iron play.

Pat Mayo laid ‑115 on Matt McCarty over Ryan Gerard in a head-to-head, citing McCarty’s perfect skill mix for Waialae: fairway accuracy, elite proximity from 150-200 yards and a putter that gains at least one stroke in 37 % of rounds (Tour average 27.5 %). Mayo concedes Gerard is the superior ball-striker tee-to-green but believes his weak short game and putting are fatal on a track that often becomes a Bermuda putting contest.

Ryan Noonan advised passing on Jordan Spieth at 33-1, noting there’s no evidence the Texan has shaken off 2025’s injury-marred campaign. Spieth returned at December’s Hero World Challenge and finished dead-last at even par, a full 22 shots behind winner Hideki Matsuyama. Noonan questions both form and confidence and sees no reason to invest real dollars until Spieth posts at least one encouraging start.