Ryan Noonan grabbed Keegan Bradley +275 for a Top-10, pointing out that Bradley’s 11 top-20 finishes last season were his most in over a decade despite juggling Ryder Cup captaincy duties. The Travelers champion has been in Sunday contention at Waialae three of the past four years, and Noonan trusts his reliable tee-to-green game on a layout that minimizes distance and spotlights precision iron play.

Pat Mayo laid ‑115 on Matt McCarty over Ryan Gerard in a head-to-head, citing McCarty’s perfect skill mix for Waialae: fairway accuracy, elite proximity from 150-200 yards and a putter that gains at least one stroke in 37 % of rounds (Tour average 27.5 %). Mayo concedes Gerard is the superior ball-striker tee-to-green but believes his weak short game and putting are fatal on a track that often becomes a Bermuda putting contest.

Ryan Noonan advised passing on Jordan Spieth at 33-1, noting there’s no evidence the Texan has shaken off 2025’s injury-marred campaign. Spieth returned at December’s Hero World Challenge and finished dead-last at even par, a full 22 shots behind winner Hideki Matsuyama. Noonan questions both form and confidence and sees no reason to invest real dollars until Spieth posts at least one encouraging start.

Keith Stewart is fading Collin Morikawa at 22-1, arguing the par-70 Waialae magnifies the weaknesses that plagued Morikawa’s 2025 season. Stewart pointed to Morikawa’s poor birdie-or-better rate on par-4s, persistent putting volatility and a left-to-right tee shot that conflicts with the course’s preferred shot shape. While expecting an overall rebound year, Stewart thinks the season opener is a bad fit and is happy to wait for better venues before buying back in.

Pat Mayo tagged Daniel Berger as a 66-1 dark horse, noting his 2025 fade was largely finger-injury related and isolated to chipping woes. Before the short-game collapse Berger rattled off nine top-25s in his first 12 starts, including podiums at the Masters and Players. He remains one of the tour’s most accurate drivers and solid iron players, profiles that historically thrive at Waialae. With wins at comp courses Pebble Beach and Colonial already on the resume, Mayo views 66-1 as a bargain if the short game reset over the winter.

Andy Lack recommended Corey Conners at 33-1, arguing Waialae is tailor-made for the Canadian’s precise ball-striking. Conners closed 2025 with a stellar approach display at the Hero World Challenge and owns four top-12 finishes in seven Sony starts. Lack sees his fairway-finder driver and laser-like mid-irons thriving on a wind-exposed par-70 that deemphasizes length while rewarding accuracy and GIR percentage.

Ryan Noonan backed Russell Henley at 11-1 despite the skimpy number because Waialae rewards exactly what Henley does best. The 2013 champion has finished T-11 or better in four of the last five editions and lost only when Hideki ran him down in 2022. Noonan highlighted Henley’s ability to control the ball off the tee, an elite wedge/short-iron game, and a Bermudagrass putting profile that has gained 0.55 strokes per round over the last three seasons. On a layout that turns into a wedge-and-putt contest, Noonan believes Henley’s skill set justifies near-favorite status.

Keith Stewart fired on Chris Kirk at 45-1, labeling the Georgia veteran the classic Waialae play. Kirk has already lifted a trophy in Hawaii at the Sentry and owns two top-3 finishes here in the past five years. Stewart emphasized Kirk’s right-to-left tee shot that fits Waialae’s doglegs, elite scoring-iron prowess and proven success on coastal Bermudagrass venues. With form intact after a strong 2025 finish, Stewart expects Kirk to “go low” and grab another island victory.

Pat Mayo said Aaron Rai is his favorite outright at 35-1 because the Englishman checks every Waialae box except proven putting. Rai enters 2026 23rd in the OWGR, sits 4th in this field in driving accuracy, 7th in strokes-gained approach and 19th in comp-course performance according to Fantasy National. He already owns wins at the 2024 Wyndham and last fall’s first stage of the DP World Tour Playoffs in Abu Dhabi, proving he can close on shorter, positional, Bermudagrass layouts. Mayo is confident enough to burn Rai in Week 1 of the huge season-long One-and-Done, noting you get “Henley-lite” ball-striking at quadruple the odds if the putter merely cooperates.

Stewart bet Patrick Rodgers +410 to finish top-10, citing his finishing run of 4th (2021), 3rd (2022) and 9th (2024) at Port Royal. Fresh off a 6th in Mexico and armed with a low-trajectory shot shape that cheats the wind, Rodgers checks every box for repeat success on this seaside track.

The Tour Coach played Michael Brennan +400 for a top-10. He argued the weak field will feel like a Korn Ferry Tour stop to the 21-year-old, who’s been stringing strong finishes together. With odds adjusting back to a fair number, the coach expects Brennan’s recent form and comfort on Bermuda greens to translate into contending over four days.

Stewart laid –125 with Victor Perez over Luke Clanton at FanDuel. Clanton owns just one top-20 in his last 14 starts, whereas Perez arrives off a T-21 in Mexico and sits top-10 in this field for recent SG: Approach and putting. Stewart expects Perez’s fairway-finding and birdie conversion to cash the head-to-head by Friday cut.

The Tour Coach grabbed Pierceson Coody +120 over Rico Hoey in DraftKings matchups, calling the price generous for a rising talent who has flashed high-end ball-striking this fall. He expects Hoey’s unreliable putter to drag him below expectation, giving Coody the edge across four rounds.

Hennessey is fading Chad Ramey at 25-1. While Ramey is a popular first-round-leader bet, Hennessey questions his ability to sink pressure putts on Sunday, noting last week’s runner-up was a distant second to Ben Griffin. Without proof he can close, Hennessey sees no value in an outright ticket.

Mayo crossed Rico Hoey off his outright card despite Hoey opening as the betting favorite at 18-1. Mayo loves Hoey’s ball-striking but points out every past Port Royal champion owned elite Bermuda putting numbers, a category where Hoey ranks near the bottom. Until the flat stick cooperates, Mayo refuses to pay favorite odds.

Lack’s dark-horse ticket lands on Greyson Sigg 60-1. Sigg gained 8+ strokes on approach in two of his last three measured starts and leads the entire field in 100-150-yard proximity over the past 12 months. With Port Royal forcing a steady diet of wedges and Sigg already three-for-three in top-25 finishes here, Lack views him as a live outright option that markets are underrating.

Stewart’s favorite mid-tier dart is Sami Valimaki at 40-1 after a runner-up in Mexico that featured 30 birdies. Valimaki leads this field in approaches from 200-225 yards, ranks 2nd overall in SG: Approach and 7th SG: Tee-to-Green. Stewart likes his power-plus-control combo: the Finn can club down for accuracy, still courting birdie looks while a left-to-right shot shape holds up in crosswinds. Another 30-birdie week could be enough in Bermuda’s usual mid-teens winning score.

Mayo labeled Andrew Putnam a 90-1 sleeper. Despite poor recent finishes (2/6 cuts, best T-40), Putnam hits 75 % of fairways and ranks top-5 long-term in 100-150-yard proximity and No. 1 SG: Around-the-Green. Mayo argued Port Royal’s generous fairways mitigate Putnam’s distance deficit and that his career-long elite putting (2nd per round the last two years) is due for positive regression after a cold swing season. If the putter heats, Mayo sees a Todd/Gay/Camilo-style island winner profile.

Christopher Powers invested in Patrick Rodgers at 35-1 after his top-10 finish in Mexico. Powers emphasized that Rodgers has "done everything but win" at Port Royal, pointing to multiple prior top-10s on this track. With form peaking and a layout that rewards his low-flighted irons and proven Bermuda putting, Powers believes the Californian finally bags his first PGA Tour title.

Keith Stewart grabbed Nico Echavarria at 25-1, citing top-5 ranks in both SG: Approach (4th) and putting (8th) over the past 24 rounds. Stewart highlighted Echavarria’s international wins (Japan, Puerto Rico) and two prior top-30s at this event, arguing the wind-exposed "Bermuda triangle" favors players comfortable on coastal tracks. Coming off a 14th last week and sporting a tidy birdie-to-bogey ratio plus a mid-trajectory left-to-right ball flight, Stewart expects the Colombian to extend the streak of foreign winners in Bermuda.

Pat Mayo also fired on Kuchar 35-1, pointing out the veteran grades green in every key wedge bucket (50-100 and 100-150 yards) and remains one of the field’s best long-term Bermuda putters. Mayo’s stat rankings peg Kuchar No. 1 in combined accuracy + scrambling, an ideal profile when Port Royal’s coastal wind forces players to flight wedges and save par. Mayo framed the bet as the "safest profile" available this week.

The anonymous Tour Coach backed Matt Kuchar to win at 35-1, noting Port Royal mirrors Kuchar’s last victory at the Sony Open: short, windy, Bermuda-grass and wedge-heavy. Kuchar arrives off a T-11 last week, and the coach believes his fairway accuracy plus elite 100-150-yard proximity give him a blueprint to repeatedly stuff approaches inside 15 feet and ride a hot putter in gusty conditions.

Lack loves Davis Thompson as a $6,400 sleeper. While the former Georgia Bulldog has limited links reps, the price already bakes in that risk. Thompson’s driver and mid-iron play have been quietly excellent this season, and his best finish came at TPC Sawgrass, Lack’s favorite American corollary to Portrush. He views Thompson as a live punt for stars-and-scrubs builds.

At $7,200 Conners is Lack’s favorite flier thanks to his fairway-finding driver, elite irons, and a noticeably better putter in 2025. Lack believes the Canadian is "bound to fairway-and-green his way" onto a major leaderboard soon and sees Portrush’s demand for precision as an ideal setup for that breakout.

Lack expects regression from Justin Rose, who costs $7,600 after a flashy Sunday charge to sixth at the Genesis Scottish Open and last year’s magic at Troon. For most of 2025 Rose has been "very below average," logging only three top-25s. Calling him a classic boom-or-bust profile, Lack forecasts a letdown and is fading him in DFS builds.

Despite lingering injury chatter, Lack is willing to risk Jordan Spieth at $7,700 because of his sterling Open track record. Spieth finished 20th at Portrush in 2019 and owns a runner-up at Royal St. George’s (a comp course) in 2021. Lack believes Spieth’s creative shot-making and proven links success outweigh the health concerns at this salary.

Lack is off Brooks Koepka this week at $8,000, pointing to a T-32 at LIV Andalucia where Koepka lost strokes in both ball-striking categories. The five-time major champ has not posted a top-10 on LIV since March and, according to Lack, has "failed to garner any momentum" heading into Portrush. Without evidence of peak form, he is an easy fade.

Cantlay’s $8,100 salary is his cheapest in years, and Lack sees that discount as a perfect ownership pivot. The Californian gained 5+ strokes on approach at the Rocket Mortgage and is "playing far better than the results suggest." With most DFS players gravitating to flashier names in the $8k band, Lack wants Cantlay’s well-rounded profile and hot irons in GPPs.

Although Aberg’s talent is undeniable, Lack listed him as his least-favorite $9k option because Royal Portrush places a premium on scrambling. Aberg’s short game remains an obvious weakness, and on Colt’s tiny greens that tilt into tight run-offs Lack expects those around-the-green deficiencies to be exposed, making the Swede an avoid at $9,100.

Lack labeled Xander Schauffele a core play at $9,700, noting the American is coming off his best iron week of the season at the Genesis Scottish Open. Over the past five years no one has a better cumulative record at Open Championships, and Xander rolls into Portrush attempting to defend his 2024 Claret Jug with his ball-striking trending sharply upward.

Lack advised fading Bryson DeChambeau at $10,100 despite the potential ownership leverage. DeChambeau has lost strokes putting in four consecutive LIV events and is fresh off a mediocre 30th at LIV Andalucia where he also bled strokes around the green and with his irons. Lack questioned Bryson’s overall links resume and believes his shaky flatstick makes him an unnecessary risk when paying five figures.

Andy Lack said Jon Rahm is the premier spend-up at $10,400 on DraftKings because the Spaniard checks every box for Royal Portrush. Rahm has finished inside the top-15 at all three majors in 2025, nearly won the PGA Championship, and owns an 11th-place finish the last time the Open was held here in 2019. Lack highlighted Rahm’s "extreme comfort" in links golf and noted that his driver remains "as strong as any in the field," a critical weapon on Portrush’s narrow fairways. The combination of recent major consistency plus proven course fit makes Rahm his favorite play in the $10k tier.

Rounding out the list, Myers likes Hatton at 25/1. The Englishman pushed the lead to the penultimate hole at Oakmont and finished T-6 at Portrush in 2019, signaling both form and course comfort. Myers did note Hatton’s combustible temperament, recounting a tense exchange with a reporter over ‘bad luck,’ but thinks that edge can fuel another Open run at a fair mid-tier price.

Myers slotted Hovland at 30/1, citing four top-four finishes in the past four major seasons, including a solo third at Oakmont. He admitted Hovland’s chipping remains a concern but argued that Open venues allow players to putt from tight fringes, mitigating the weakness. Given Hovland’s elite ball-striking, Myers believes the Norwegian is undervalued relative to his major track record.

Justin Rose cracked Myers’ top-10 because 60/1 feels long for a player who finished runner-up in last year’s Open and owns a major title. Myers warned that Rose has followed those back-to-back runner-up finishes with back-to-back missed cuts, underscoring the volatility. Still, at triple-digit implied odds, Myers thinks Rose offers high ceiling at a basement price.

Myers could not ignore a five-time major champion at a 45/1 price. Koepka’s best Open finish—T-4—came at Portrush in 2019, proving he can handle the layout. The ugly part: Koepka has zero top-10s in nine starts since hoisting the 2023 PGA, so backing him requires blind faith that the major mojo flicks back on. Myers believes the reward outweighs the risk.

Myers slotted Ludvig Aberg eighth at 28/1, arguing the 24-year-old Swede is destined to snag a major sooner rather than later. He likes Aberg’s power-driven profile for Portrush and the tidy number under 30/1. Myers did flag significant risk: Aberg missed the cut in his Open debut last year and in the two most recent majors this season, so bettors are banking on ceiling over proven pedigree.

At 25/1, Myers called Morikawa a classic buy-low. The two-time major winner already owns a claret jug and ranks among the game’s best iron players. Myers’ issue: Morikawa is outside the top-100 in strokes-gained putting, repeatedly squandering birdie looks. Two caddie changes in one year further hint at underlying frustration. Myers believes a neutral week on the greens could make 25/1 look silly, but the flatstick risk is real.

Lowry sits sixth on Myers’ card at 25/1 because he lifted the claret jug by six shots the last time the championship visited Portrush. Myers believes that level of course comfort is hard to price correctly. The downside: Lowry is mired in a mini-slump—missed cuts at both the U.S. Open and PGA Championship following a T-42 Masters. Myers cautions that backers must decide whether local vibes override current form.

Myers slotted Tommy Fleetwood fifth at 25/1, emphasizing his runner-up finish the last time Portrush hosted (2019) and his reputation for showing up every tournament without imploding. He believes the ‘golf gods’ owe Fleetwood after a heartbreaking loss at the Travelers. The knock is that Fleetwood simply does not win—zero PGA TOUR victories—leaving bettors to decide if course history and steadiness outweigh career closing issues.

Myers reminded bettors they seldom see Scottie Scheffler at 4.5/1 anywhere, let alone a major. He framed the world No. 1’s other-worldly tee-to-green consistency as worth swallowing such short odds. The caution flag: The Open is statistically Scheffler’s weakest major, a trend that partially explains the longer-than-usual number. Myers still prefers paying the premium rather than fading Scheffler outright.

Schauffele climbed to Myers’ third slot because his number moved from 20/1 to 25/1 after a winless spring. Myers reminded readers that Xander is the defending Champion Golfer of the Year and owns an excellent Open record. The red flag: Schauffele sits outside the top-100 in three of the four strokes-gained categories this season, a sign the slump is real. Still, Myers thinks a proven links resume combined with the longer price offsets those statistical concerns.

Myers recommended Rory McIlroy at 7/1, noting the Northern Irishman returns to his home country carrying three 2025 victories, including the season-opening Masters that completed his career Grand Slam. Myers views that résumé plus intimate Portrush knowledge as worth the short price. He did warn bettors that Rory has not lifted a trophy since Augusta and will shoulder massive hometown pressure, recalling the OB opening tee shot that triggered a missed cut here in 2019. Even so, Myers believes current form and narrative make him a justifiable favorite.

Alex Myers tabbed Jon Rahm as his No. 1 outright wager at Royal Portrush, pointing out that Rahm led the field tee-to-green during a T-7 finish at the U.S. Open but squandered chances with a frigid putter. Myers argued that elite ball-striking paired with negative putting variance is the classic buy signal, especially at DraftKings’ 14/1 price that is longer than fellow elites Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. He conceded Rahm’s Oakmont putting woes but framed them as a short-term blip, adding that the Spaniard is “over-due” for a fifth major.

Stewart grabbed Xander Schauffele at +100 in a head-to-head versus Collin Morikawa. Schauffele’s Travelers form reads 1st-19th-13th the last three years, and he enters off a stabilizing tee-to-green run. Morikawa, meanwhile, has missed two cuts in four Travelers starts and continues to struggle with the putter on these greens. Stewart called the world No. 3 at plus odds a "gift."

Pat Mayo planted a flag against Rory McIlroy at 12-1, saying there is "no chance he wants to be here this week." Mayo believes the four-time major winner is mentally drained from Oakmont and dislikes the quick turnaround, making the short number unbettable despite strong course history.

While Hennessey is buying Burns, the on-site coach is fading him at 28-1, arguing it’s historically profitable to oppose players immediately after a gut-wrenching major loss. The coach expects the mental and physical toll from leading most of the U.S. Open to make bouncing back in 72 hours extremely difficult.

Keith Stewart circled Nick Taylor at 110-1, citing his history of winning on short positional tracks (Pebble Beach, Oakdale, Waialae) and a momentum-building 4th at the Memorial. Stewart loves Taylor’s hot putter and ‘closer’ reputation on Sundays, calling TPC River Highlands a textbook fit for his skill set.

The on-site swing coach tabbed Cam Young at 50-1 as the top dark-horse. Young arrives with back-to-back T4 finishes and extensive experience on Northeast Poa annua greens. The coach thinks the recent uptick signals Young is finally ready to capture his elusive first Tour win in a setting that accentuates driver-wedge proficiency.

Andy Lack likes Xander Schauffele at 16-1, pointing to a back-door top-15 at Oakmont where he gained strokes in all four major categories. Schauffele is a past Travelers winner and, in Lack’s view, is inching back toward peak form exactly when the Tour hits a layout that fits his controlled distance and wedge prowess.

Christopher Powers snagged Jordan Spieth at 50-1 after Spieth ranked second in the field in strokes-gained/approach at Oakmont. Powers concedes Spieth’s Travelers résumé is poor since his 2017 victory but attributes those struggles to a multi-year slump that appears to be over. With the irons suddenly cooking and Ryder Cup motivation looming, Powers thinks the former World No. 1 is a live long-shot to end his drought.