Chasing first-place equity? Gannon suggested Ryan Fox as the ultimate boom-or-bust play. Fox’s prodigious length and aggressive scoring profile mean he can legitimately win or finish top-5 even in a strong 50-man field. That upside at sub-7K ownership is tailor-made for GPP leverage despite the volatility.

Sam Stevens ($6,500) is Gannon’s preferred punt. Stevens is unusually accurate off the tee for his price tier; if he continues peppering fairways, Gannon believes a top-20 finish is within reach, which would more than pay off the salary in a 50-man field.

Gannon pointed to Harry Hall at $7,800 for balanced builds. Hall hasn’t missed a cut since The Players and ranks among the field’s best putters. Gannon trusts him to keep it in play off the tee and roll in birdies, providing a stable floor with sneaky upside in a no-cut event.

At $7,200, Taylor Pendrith is Gannon’s favorite deep-value bomber. Pendrith has gained on approach in three of his last four starts and owns a T8 at Wilmington, a course he says asks similar questions to Caves Valley. With length off the tee and a streaky bent-grass putter, Pendrith brings top-5 upside at sub-10% ownership.

Gannon likes Maverick McNealy at $7,500 as a Rory-comp corollary play. Courses that fit McIlroy’s driver-and-putter blueprint often see McNealy pop as well. With a hot putter and plenty of length off the tee, McNealy offers upside leverage in large-field GPPs.

Gannon flagged Corey Conners at $8,400, noting that moving the BMW from a par-72 to a lengthened par-70 reduces the pressure to pour in birdies and shifts value toward elite ball strikers. Conners’ fairway-finding driver and laser irons should pile up GIRs; if the putter cooperates he projects a top-10 that smashes salary.

DraftKings finally lowered Matt Fitzpatrick to $8,900 and Gannon wants to pounce. Fitzpatrick’s neutral week at Southwind didn’t raise red flags, and the bent-grass, driver-putter environment matches his strengths. Gannon thinks the discounted tag alone makes Fitzpatrick a strong mid-tier anchor.

At $9,100 Gannon sees Ben Griffin as a viable upper-mid tier pivot. Griffin pairs above-average length with strong long-iron numbers and already claimed a 2025 win on bent grass at Colonial. Gannon believes that ‘driver-plus-putter’ recipe can pop at Caves Valley and give DFS rosters leverage away from the bigger names priced nearby.

Gannon recommended Cameron Young at $9,800, stressing that you ‘play the hot golfer.’ Young’s recent surge is built on booming drives, crisp mid-irons, and an uptick in putting. One more top-10 virtually locks his Ryder Cup berth, and Gannon expects his driver-friendly skill set to flourish on Caves Valley’s long bent-grass layout, making Young worth the chalk.

Calling him the “absolute hammer,” Gannon locked Viktor Hovland in at $9,200. He compared Caves Valley’s northeast bent-grass, thick-rough profile to tracks where Hovland has thrived—Oakmont, Oak Hill, and past BMW Championships—and expects his long-and-straight driving plus scoring irons to shine. Last week’s pedestrian finish should lower ownership, giving DFS players bargain exposure to an elite course fit.

Gannon endorsed Ludvig Aberg at $10,200 even if ownership is high. Aberg’s T9 at TPC Southwind featured ‘all-green’ strokes-gained numbers, and he currently flashes some of the Tour’s steadiest ball striking. Long and straight off the tee, Aberg fits the Caves Valley driver-heavy setup, and Gannon thinks steady form soon converts into a win—making him a strong DFS core play.

Gannon advised fading Scottie Scheffler despite his consistency. Scheffler costs roughly $2K more than McIlroy and, in Gannon’s view, the course asks for Rory’s skill set—particularly driver-putter scoring—more than Scottie’s. He expects a ho-hum T7 result that won’t pay off a top-of-the-board salary in a 50-man DFS slate, making Scheffler a leverage fade.

Matt Gannon said Rory McIlroy is the best way to start BMW Championship DFS builds at $11,400 because he is $2,000 cheaper than Scottie Scheffler yet fits Caves Valley perfectly. Gannon highlighted McIlroy’s length and accuracy off the tee, elite mid-iron and wedge play, and ability to torch birdie fests. He added that Rory is most dangerous when he’s relaxed, forecasting a T3-or-better finish and labeling him a must-click spend-up.

Dom Cintorino took Hideki Matsuyama at –105 for a top-20, saying he is not ready to fire on an outright but views essentially even money on a player of Hideki’s caliber as "pretty good value" in a 50-man event. Cintorino expects Matsuyama’s well-rounded tee-to-green game to play nicely at the BMW and believes the placement bet limits downside while capturing his high floor.

Matt Gannon grabbed Sam Stevens at +150 for a top-20 finish, citing Stevens’ ability to "play out of the fairway at a very high rate." Gannon reasoned that in a setup where accurate driving is rewarded, constantly hitting the short grass elevates a player’s ceiling. While he is concerned about Stevens’ iron play and will not back him elsewhere, Gannon thinks the consistent tee ball can still deliver a T20 in this condensed field.

Dom Cintorino bet Collin Morikawa outright at 33-1 with a top-6 each-way. He felt the number had slid "too far" after liking what he saw from Morikawa last week and trusts Morikawa’s trademark iron play to separate on a ball-striker’s course in a no-cut, 50-man field. The each-way covers a high-floor top finish while preserving upside if the irons carry him to the trophy.

Matt Gannon targeted Taylor Pendrith in the Rory-and-Scottie-excluded outright market, arguing the Canadian’s driver-plus-putter combo is perfect for Olympia Fields. Pendrith is long but still finds plenty of fairways, and Gannon noted a recent bump in Pendrith’s approach numbers. If that iron play holds, he believes Pendrith can out-score everyone not named McIlroy or Scheffler, making the posted number a strong bet in the "without" market.

Matt Gannon said he was happy to lay roughly –140/–150 for Cameron Young to finish inside the top-20 at the 2025 BMW Championship. With only 50 players teeing it up, Gannon prefers placement markets and called Young "the hot golfer" after cashing a recent ticket on him. He pointed out that the tournament is being played on a long northeast bent-grass track—exactly the grass and region Young grew up on—so course familiarity plus elite current form should translate to another high finish as Young tries to lock up enough FedExCup points to reach Bethpage.

Cintorino called Ryan Fox a mis-price, questioning why a multi-time winner sits below names like Lucas Glover and Bud Cauley. Fox’s high-ceiling power game matches Caves Valley’s demands, and Cintorino trusts the New Zealander to contend "in any form." With odds deeper than 70-1 in some books, Cintorino will be investing in outright and top-10 markets, expecting market correction as the week progresses.

Gannon highlighted Taylor Pendrith at 70-1 as the best deep number on the board. Pendrith is pounding driver—gaining off-the-tee in four of his last five—and his irons have flashed, gaining on approach in three of his last four starts. He finished T8 at the 2023 BMW in Wilmington, another Northeast bentgrass track that Cantlay won, reinforcing the regional fit. The Canadian’s game is built on carrying corners and rolling putts, exactly the recipe Gannon wants this week, and he sees no reason Pendrith should be longer than mid-pack grinders given the win equity tied to his length.

Gannon likes Maverick McNealy at 45-50-1, drawing a direct comp to Rory’s "driver-putter" blueprint that historically thrives at Caves Valley. The course is Northeast bentgrass—an agronomy profile where McNealy has putted lights-out—and this is one of his last chances to vault into the Presidents Cup picture after compiling points all year. Gannon trusts McNealy’s seasoning and believes the pressure will be manageable compared to less-experienced longshots. In a short field that rewards distance and hot putting, McNealy offers upside at a number that will rarely be available if the putter cooperates.

Gannon labeled Hideki Matsuyama a plus-EV click at 40-1 in a 50-player field even while admitting the driver has been a "mess." Matsuyama still rates out well in his model because his long-iron play remains elite and he converts fairways into birdies at a high clip. Gannon joked that if Hideki could tee off from Brian Campbell’s straight but short drives he might win the tournament, underscoring how much the driver is the only question. Given his ability to reach 25-under when the ball is in play and the generous price, Gannon will stomach the volatility and bet the ceiling.

Cintorino is buying the dip on Viktor Hovland at 35-1. Last week’s disappointment killed the buzz, but he thinks that creates a perfect buy-low. Caves Valley’s length and gnarly rough reward Hovland’s elite tee-to-green game, and the Norwegian has historically putted best on pure bent. Cintorino plans to attack both the outright at 35-1 and a "without Scheffler/McIlroy" market in the mid-20s, arguing Hovland can easily finish third if the two favorites separate. Hovland has already shown playoff upside, and the no-cut structure removes one of his few weaknesses—volatile short-game weeks that can miss cuts elsewhere.

Gannon argued the market has over-corrected on Collin Morikawa, who is out to 33-1 in a 50-man, no-cut playoff event. While distance is not Morikawa’s calling card, Gannon emphasized that Caves Valley’s demanding approach shots play directly into his strength with long irons. Morikawa gained almost six strokes on approach last week—his best number of the season—and posted similar spikes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Oakmont. He has proven he can contend on big ballparks such as Torrey Pines and Muirfield Village. With a top-six each-way available, Gannon views 33-1 as too long for an elite iron player whose form is trending up.

Dom Cintorino wants to open his outright card with Ludvig Aberg at 22-1. Cintorino loves that Aberg has gained strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in every start since the Memorial, noting the Swede’s game log is "all green." Caves Valley is long with generous landing areas, allowing Aberg to weaponize a driver that is simultaneously long and straight. Even though Aberg projects to be one of the chalkier plays of the week, Cintorino believes the combination of recent ball-striking form, distance, and a no-cut format makes the low-20s price fair for betting and highly attractive in DFS builds.

Matt Gannon said this is a near-perfect setup for Rory McIlroy – wide corridors that reward his driver-plus-putter profile – but questioned how much McIlroy actually cares about winning the BMW at Caves Valley when he is openly treating the week as preparation for East Lake. Because the number will be a single-bullet price, Gannon is passing on an outright ticket and instead plans to monitor markets that exclude Scottie Scheffler, where Rory could still offer value. For fantasy, the ceiling is intact and the ownership discount created by the motivation narrative makes McIlroy one of Gannon’s preferred DFS spends.

Matt Gannon plans to walk Tuesday and Wednesday practice rounds and, if McIlroy’s driver-putter combo looks sharp, fire on Rory in the ‘without Scheffler’ markets rather than the standard outright. Matt called Caves Valley a simple “driver-putter test”—wide sight lines that reward raw length and a hot flat stick—two areas where Rory historically crushes. The only hesitation is motivation: McIlroy has openly prioritized winning at iconic venues and might treat this event merely as Tour Championship prep. Gannon will use on-site intel to confirm focus before betting Rory in markets that exclude Scheffler, where prices typically open around 4-to-1.

Dom Cintorino said he would rather take Rory McIlroy at +750 than eat Scottie Scheffler’s shorter number this week. With Caves Valley expected to play long yet still yield birdies, Dom feels Rory’s combination of top-five driving distance, high apex long-iron trajectories and positive bent-grass putting splits fits the new par-70 layout perfectly, whereas the gap between Scheffler and the field tightens on a course that turns two par-fives into long par-fours. Dom does not usually chase sub-10-to-1 outrights, but the slight drift from Rory’s typical 6-to-1 range plus the course fit makes him comfortable anchoring cards around McIlroy instead of Scheffler.

Discussing sportsbook odds to lead the league in interceptions, Dom Cintorino preferred betting Cam Ward over the shorter-priced JJ McCarthy line. Dom noted Minnesota will likely scale back passing volume with McCarthy and already saw only 11 interceptions on 713 collegiate attempts, making the 9.5-to-1 price too aggressive. Ward, meanwhile, projects for a pass-heavy attack that could push 40 attempts per game, greatly increasing interception opportunity. Cintorino would rather hold the superior volume angle at longer odds and fade the market’s assumption that McCarthy’s inexperience automatically translates to giveaways.

Gannon advised steering clear of Tony Finau despite an attractive $6k tag because projected ownership is driven solely by name recognition. He argued Finau is ‘not a serious golfer at this point,’ referencing the star’s prolonged slump and lack of recent high finishes. In a condensed playoff field, Gannon prefers lower-owned swings with real win equity rather than paying for Finau’s reputation.

Matt Gannon called Ryan Gerard his single favorite 6k play and the cornerstone of his St. Jude builds. Gerard has been flushing it for two straight months, per Gannon, ranking near the top of the field in recent ball-striking but bleeding strokes on the greens. Gannon expects that to flip on Bermuda, citing Gerard’s +4.5 SG putting at THE PLAYERS, +2 at the Sony, and +7 at the Valero—each on Bermuda. With reliable tee-to-green form and proven surface splits, Gannon is starting lineups at $6,700 Gerard to fit a balanced roster construction.

Gannon endorsed Andrew Novak at $6,600, emphasizing that Novak can gain strokes in every category, a trait he values on the all-around test of TPC Southwind. Novak grew up in the Southeast, has an established comfort level on Bermuda, and should feel at home in Memphis heat. Gannon believes that combination of well-rounded metrics and regional familiarity makes Novak a sneaky mid-6k pivot with genuine top-15 upside.

Matt Gannon said Stephan Jaeger is a viable $6,200 flier in large-field DFS because of his high-volatility scoring profile. Although Jaeger has missed every cut since the Travelers, Gannon noted three straight made cuts at TPC Southwind (T20, T40, T46) and called the course a strong stylistic fit for Jaeger’s ultra-aggressive approach that produces quick birdie streaks when the putter cooperates. With projected ownership capped around 8-9% in a 70-man playoff field, Gannon feels the leverage and top-20 upside outweigh the recent form concerns.

Gannon likes Taylor Pendrith as a sub-7.3K punt. Pendrith has gained strokes on approach in three consecutive events for the first time since the 2023 Houston Open, a run that preceded a top-five finish. His length off the tee fits Southwind’s longer par-4s, and Gannon sees a realistic path to another top-20 with upside for more at basement ownership.

Matt Gannon flagged Shane Lowry as mis-priced at $7,400. While Southwind is a bit long for Lowry’s ideal setup, he posted a T11 here previously and routinely gains on Bermuda greens. Gannon thinks sub-10% ownership plus genuine top-10 upside makes Lowry a strong salary-saver in balanced builds.

Gannon prefers Maverick McNealy to Jordan Spieth or Wyndham Clark in the mid-7K range. He cited McNealy’s recent iron improvement, consistently strong driving, and a history of blooming when both click. Despite only a T12 career best at Southwind, Gannon believes McNealy’s untapped ceiling makes him an ideal tournament differentiator this week.

Gannon called Daniel Berger ‘good chalk’ at $7,800. Berger won this event in back-to-back years earlier in his career and is currently flushing his irons while struggling with the flat stick. Returning to preferred Bermuda greens at a course where ball-strikers can mask putting woes (citing Justin Thomas’ past win), Gannon expects Berger to pay off heavy ownership and sees top-10 equity at a bargain salary.

Gannon urged players to keep jamming Cameron Young into DFS builds after Young’s outright win cashed for the show last week. Young, Ben Griffin, and Chris Gotterup are all "not fully priced yet," but Young offers the highest ceiling. Gannon expects ownership to stay reasonable and views Young’s current ball-striking surge as something to ride until the pricing catches up.

Matt Gannon likes Sam Burns at the top of the 8K tier, pointing to Burns’ aggressive, accurate driving and proven Bermuda putter. Burns has gained distance while staying in play over his last three starts and owns multiple strong finishes at Southwind. Gannon views Burns’ current form plus course fit as ideal for GPP lineups seeking win equity at a mid-tier salary.

Gannon is fading Viktor Hovland in DFS even though the Norwegian checks every course-history box, projecting him to carry heavy ownership in the limited playoff field. With strong pivot options like Cantlay and Morikawa priced below, Gannon prefers to avoid Hovland chalk to gain tournament leverage.

Gannon still likes Collin Morikawa despite recent shaky ball-striking, noting his return to familiar U.S. conditions after a forgettable overseas swing. Morikawa owns a T5 and T13 in two Southwind starts, carries a proven winning ceiling, and sits outside the automatic Ryder Cup spots, giving him extra motivation. At $9,100 he offers leverage off expected Hovland chalk while maintaining top-end iron play upside in a short field.

Matt Gannon targeted Patrick Cantlay as his favorite sub-10K option, calling this a ‘prove-it’ week for Ryder Cup hopefuls. Cantlay owns five straight top-12 finishes at Southwind (T12 2024, 2nd 2023, T8 2018, T12 2019, T10 2017) and routinely gains strokes tee-to-green on Bermuda layouts. Priced at just $9,000 in a limited 70-player field, Gannon believes Cantlay’s winning ceiling is mis-priced relative to similar names and plans to overweight him in both DFS builds and outright exposure.

Matt Gannon said Xander Schauffele is the best way to spend 10K-plus salary if you decide to fade Scottie Scheffler in DFS. Schauffele has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in back-to-back starts for the first time since the 2024 Olympics and last year’s St. Jude, ending a year-long ball-striking slump. Gannon highlighted Schauffele’s runner-up finish at TPC Southwind last season, multiple prior top-10s, and overall comfort on the course. In a 70-man playoff field Gannon expects Schauffele’s combination of recent ball-striking uptick, elite course history, and a $2,100 discount to Scheffler to make him a core DFS anchor and a candidate to open outright betting cards.

Dom Cintorino bet Corey Conners +128 for a top-20 instead of an outright, believing TPC Southwind’s narrow fairways and water hazards accentuate Conners’ trademark accuracy. The Canadian is fresh off a T10 at The Open where he gained strokes in every tee-to-green metric. Cintorino feels that a merely average putting week lands Conners comfortably inside the top-20 at plus money.

Matt Gannon closed with Andrew Novak +250 for a top-20. Although Novak is "squandering strokes on approach" right now, Gannon likes his overall balanced profile—green in every strokes-gained category for the season—and cited multiple flashes in big fields this year. With a huge week potentially nudging Novak into Ryder Cup chatter, Gannon thinks the motivation plus the friendly price make the wager attractive.

Dom Cintorino took Patrick Rodgers 4-to-1 for a top-20, explaining that Rodgers showed encouraging form last week and this is "about as far down" the board as he is willing to go. Rodgers gained across the board at the Wyndham, particularly off the tee, so Cintorino sees worthwhile upside even before adding an expected even-money top-40 ticket.

Matt Gannon targeted Daniel Berger for a +115 top-20, noting that no one owns better history at TPC Southwind: two wins, multiple runner-ups and several more top-fives. Berger is finally back on his preferred Bermuda surfaces after grinding on poa and bent, and Gannon said the veteran has been "striping it" tee-to-green for months. A modest plus-money number on a clear course horse is his favorite positional play.

Dom Cintorino grabbed Shane Lowry at 55-to-1, arguing the Irishman’s consistently strong 2025 season and balanced game are not being priced correctly. Lowry ranks near the top of the field in fairways gained and short-iron proximity but sits in the mid-50s because he lacks a recent win. Cintorino believes that gap between form and number makes Lowry one of the board’s best mid-tier values.

Dom Cintorino backed Sam Burns outright at 40-to-1, citing Burns’ aggressive yet accurate driving over the past month and his proven comfort at TPC Southwind. Burns has nearly won here before and consistently gains strokes on these Bermuda greens that suit his putting strength. Cintorino added that a top-five this week could all but clinch Burns a Ryder Cup spot, giving extra motivation at an enticing price.

Matt Gannon advised jumping on Patrick Cantlay at 35-to-1 now that the market has cooled. With most of the betting public bailing after a quiet stretch, Gannon sees a classic buy-low. Cantlay owns multiple playoff wins and only needs an average putting week to contend, so 35-to-1 is a rare bargain for a proven closer.