Adding to his 150-1 outright flyer, Cintorino backed Ryan Fox for a Top-30 at +210. He pointed to Fox’s spring victory at Myrtle Beach and a T28 at the PGA Championship where the Kiwi gained across all four strokes-gained categories. Fox ranks top-25 on Tour in driving distance and long-iron proximity—two statistics Hoke believes are critical at Jack’s Place. With the market still pricing Fox like a high-variance bomber, Hoke views +210 as a generous number for a player who has cashed four straight Top-40 tickets on U.S. soil.

Although he is fading Morikawa in the outright market, Gannon loves a DraftKings bet of +240 for Morikawa to finish inside the first-round Top-10. He reminded listeners that Morikawa has opened 67-66-65 in three of his last four Memorial appearances, leading or co-leading after 18 holes twice. The Californian’s dialed wedges typically play up when greens are fresh on Thursday, and Hoke expects motivation after a string of middling Sundays. By isolating Round 1, bettors avoid Morikawa’s recent weekend fade pattern while leveraging his proven early-week ceiling.

Gannon recommended taking Ryan Gerard for a Top-20 finish at +220. Gannon called Gerard a "long–course specialist" whose distance and solid mid-iron game should travel well to Muirfield Village’s 7,600-yard setup. Although Gerard’s best results have come on Bermuda greens, Gannon argued that pure ball-striking can mask surface preference and pointed to Gerard gaining strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four measured starts. In a limited-field invitational where cut equity is higher, Hoke likes Gerard’s ceiling to sneak into the teens and thinks the +220 number is 30–40 points too long.

Cintorino is eager to grab Shane Lowry at 40-1, a number he called too long for a proven grinder. Lowry has made four straight cuts and routinely thrives when the winning score is in single digits thanks to elite bogey avoidance, sturdy short-game work, and fairway-finding accuracy. Muirfield Village has delivered multiple top-20 finishes for him already, and Cintorino long-standing rule is to fire on Lowry whenever a course is described as one of the season’s toughest. The Irishman’s statistically solid spring plus the track’s demanding setup make 40-1 an automatic add to the outright card.

Gannon warned bettors against taking Tommy Fleetwood at 28-1. While Fleetwood keeps posting effortless T8s and owns a reliable around-the-green game suited to tough tracks, the host said last week’s Wells Fargo encore proved once again that Fleetwood lacks the closing chops. After chipping in at the turn to sit two back, Tommy promptly bogeyed the par-5 11th and never threatened, even against 80-1 longshots. Gannon quipped that passing on sub-30 Fleetwood tickets "has been a pretty good decision in our lifetimes" and will do so again.

Dom Cintorino prefers Ludvig Aberg over Patrick Cantlay in the mid-20s outright range. Although Aberg’s irons were awful in his missed cut at Quail Hollow, Cintorino reminded listeners the Swede actually won at Torrey Pines during the worst iron week of his career, proving he can snap back quickly. Aberg has enjoyed 10 days off to reset, and Muirfield Village – where he posted a T5 in his lone start – rewards the driver-heavy game that makes him special. With the iron floor unlikely to dip lower, Hoke views 25-1 as a buy before the market regains confidence.

Dom Cintorino endorsed betting Justin Thomas at 18-1, calling him the most under-talked name on the board. Thomas has gained strokes putting in six straight events for the first time in his career while continuing his year-long surge in ball-striking. Cintorino is ignoring the missed cut at Valhalla, noting JT entered the PGA Championship as one of only three players (with Bryson and Rory) that bettors genuinely expected to win. With improved putting, a six-event top-tier approach baseline, and odds drifting because of one poor major, Hoke labeled Thomas a classic ‘flop lag’ buy at Muirfield Village despite modest course history.

Cintorino advised passing on Collin Morikawa at 16–18-1. While the Californian owns elite Memorial history, the host pointed out Morikawa is arriving with "sub-par ball-striking" – he is not gaining on approach over the past month, a non-starter for betting him. Paying a premium number for a player whose main weapon is currently dormant feels like lighting money on fire, according to Cintorino , who said he would be furious if he bought a short Morikawa ticket only to see him sitting +1 through nine holes on Thursday.

Skylar Hoke said he is finally willing to fade Scottie Scheffler outright at Muirfield Village. He argued the Memorial plays far too difficult to justify swallowing a sub-4-1 number when the chasing pack (Thomas, Schauffele, Cantlay, Morikawa, Aberg, et al.) is strong and well-suited to the venue. Even though Scheffler gained 20-plus strokes ball-striking at this course two years ago, the host emphasized that the world No. 1’s putter can still run cold – the very reason he failed to win that historic week. Hoke is comfortable losing if Scheffler goes back-to-back, preferring the normal outright market to the ‘without Scottie’ option for once.

Gannon’s first click after Scheffler was $6,200 Ben Kohles for this lineup. Kohles ‘absolutely stripes the driver,’ peppering fairways that set up stress-free approach shots—crucial on a course where positional play rules. The salary relief lets you keep upside elsewhere while still providing a make-the-cut floor. Matt calls him the key that unlocks elite line-ups.

Schenk has finally strung together multiple events of positive ball-striking after a long lull (Gannon half-joked the improvement came once he ‘had multiple children’). Colonial is one of his best venues—he owns a runner-up finish here—and the renewed tee-to-green form re-opens that ceiling at a mid-6K salary.

Phillips, priced at $6,700, is a Texas A&M alum who has posted strong results on comparable positional tracks. Gannon highlighted that Phillips’ calling card is his ability to ‘spike on approach,’ exactly what Colonial demands. A home-state narrative plus elite iron weeks make him a strong salary-saver for Scheffler builds.

Valimaki is Gannon’s favorite high-ceiling play at the very top of the 6K range. The Finnish youngster is a ‘high-end ball-striker’ who racks up birdies in bunches, perfect for DraftKings’ scoring system. Matt noted that even a T40 finishes can smash at $6,900 because Valimaki’s 3-to-1 birdie-to-bogey ratio piles up points.

Gannon prefers Davis over the chalky Rio Hisatune at the very bottom of 7K. Davis, a past TOUR winner, ‘popped last week’ and historically strings good results once his ball-striking heats up. His length and high carry apex help mitigate Colonial’s doglegs, giving him eagle chances where others are laying back.

Cole has gained on approach in seven straight starts—his longest career streak—and that run includes multiple top-4 finishes. Gannon thinks the ‘stars are aligning’ as Colonial rewards pure iron play. At the lower end of 7K pricing, Cole’s ball-striking floor plus recent upside make him an attractive value cash or GPP option.

Gannon called Olesen one of the best DFS plays on the entire board. The Dane brings nearly the same fairway-finding, mid-iron spike skill set as Tommy Fleetwood but costs thousands less. He recently logged a top-4 at TPC San Antonio—another Texas course that requires accuracy—and owns the ‘back-door equity’ to surge on Sundays. Ideal for balanced builds that still want win equity.

Hughes is Gannon’s favorite pivot away from heavily owned Hall, Batia, Gerard and Coley. Priced at the very top of the 7K tier, Hughes has finished T3 or better in two of his last four starts and is never afraid to win. Colonial’s shorter layout accentuates his elite putter, the club most likely to propel him into contention. With expected minimal ownership, Hughes offers both upside and differentiation.

Gannon loves Thompson as a tournament dart because ownership should stay under 12%. He described Thompson’s physical tools and modern power-plus-iron combo as that of ‘a future top-10 player in the world.’ Blindly playing him over the next few years will pay off more often than not, and Colonial sets up well for his high launch mid-irons. The low ownership makes him an ideal contrarian pivot at the very top of the 8K range.

At $8,100 Glover is one of Gannon’s favorite mid-range plugs. He is flushing his irons right now, owns a lengthy history of solid results at Colonial, and has proven he can spike top-10 upside when the putter even cooperates slightly. Matt emphasized familiarity—Glover has played this tournament ‘10 trillion times’—and the fact that his preferred tight-fairway venues mirror Colonial’s demands.

Despite a course fit narrative, Gannon is fading Aaron Rai because projected ownership will be ‘in a ton of line-ups.’ Rai’s accuracy profile is attractive but Matt prefers to pivot toward lower-owned, higher-upside drivers like Keith Mitchell who create more eagle chances. The leverage and game theory outweigh Rai’s safety in Gannon’s build strategy.

Gannon wants Mitchell as his favorite play at the bottom of the 9K tier and a direct pivot off expected Aaron Rai chalk. Colonial rewards players who can take bold lines off the tee to set up short wedges, and Mitchell is one of the few willing to do exactly that. If the driver cooperates he will hit more greens in regulation than the field, giving him a greater birdie opportunity set. Matt expects ownership to stay modest because recent results have been mediocre, making him a leverage play in GPPs.

Gannon is off Hideki this week, calling him a ‘high-risk, high-reward’ play he personally will not roster. At the PGA Championship Gannon watched Matsuyama’s swing in person and came away concerned by several rough patches, culminating in a missed cut at Quail Hollow. While acknowledging Hideki’s elite ceiling, Matt believes the floor is a trunk-slam given the current ball-striking volatility and prefers other options in the same pricing tier.

Gannon tabbed McNealy as the most dependable alternative if you fade the very top. Although historically a weak iron player, McNealy has surprisingly gained with his irons whenever he tees it up in Texas. Combine that with a breakout 2025 season that already includes multiple close calls and his best ball-striking year on record, and Matt sees a floor/ceiling profile nearly identical to Fleetwood, Berger, or Spieth but at a slightly cheaper salary and lower ownership. Confidence level is high because of the Texas iron splits and current form.

Matt Gannon said you simply start line-ups with Scheffler this week. Scheffler’s worst realistic finish at Colonial is T4 in Gannon’s eyes, and the Texan is hunting a third straight win on a course that is tailor-made for him: tight driving corridors that reward precise tee balls plus lots of mid-iron approach shots, the exact parts of Scottie’s game that grade out No. 1 on TOUR. He has ‘done everything but win’ at Colonial, owns multiple runner-up/Top-5s here, and historically dominates shorter positional tracks across Texas. Gannon noted that if you jam Scottie’s $12K salary you still have roughly $7,200 per spot left, and there are plenty of viable punt options to make the build work.

Gannon tossed Jackson Suber into his card at 14-to-1 for a Top-20. Although Suber has missed a handful of cuts, he has gained at least 3.5 strokes on approach in four of his last five measured starts on the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours, ranking fourth in this field in Opportunities Gained over that span. The flip side is a horrific putter—Suber dropped a combined 14 strokes to the flatstick in his last two ShotLink events—which is why Gannon calls him a "striper who loses everywhere else." Colonial’s smaller, slower greens minimize that weakness, and Gannon thinks the course’s demand for pure ball-striking could allow Suber to hang around even with a merely neutral putter. At 14-to-1, Gannon views the ticket as a cheap way to capture Suber’s high-variance ceiling.

Matt Gannon played Adam Schenk at 6-to-1 for a Top-20 finish. Schenk has gained strokes on approach in three consecutive starts, highlighted by a +3.8 SG:Approach performance at Valhalla that pushed him inside the top-15 through 54 holes. Gannon argued those trending irons map perfectly to Colonial, a course that historically rewards precise mid-iron play over driving distance. Schenk ranked 15th in this field in Fairways Gained over the last 24 rounds and finished T7 here in 2022, showing the layout suits his eye. With books still pricing him like a mid-tier grinder, Gannon sees a mis-match between form and number, calling the +600 a "fairly outrageous" price for someone who can gain multiple shots tee-to-green on a positional track.

Matt Gannon locked in Maverick McNealy +100 over Hideki Matsuyama in a full-tournament matchup. Gannon was on-site at Quail Hollow last week and reported Matsuyama was "swinging out of his shoes" in a Bryson-style speed-training session, then proceeded to spray drivers and irons all over the property. He called Hideki’s current ball-flight "off the planet" and believes the former Masters champ is searching rather than competing. Conversely, McNealy ranks 11th in this field in SG:Total on Texas tracks and has gained strokes both off-the-tee and on approach in four straight starts since returning from a shoulder injury. Colonial’s positional layout accentuates McNealy’s accurate driver and tidy short game, while punishing Hideki’s current two-way miss. Gannon sees the even-money price as a short-term form hedge that “should be closer to -130 in McNealy’s favor.”

Matt Gannon believes Rickie Fowler is on the verge of a breakout and likes him for runner-up/top-5 wagers at triple-digit prices. Fowler has opened strong in multiple recent starts, gained ball-striking in three of his last four events, and owns a sterling Colonial record—T6 in 2022 plus two additional top-6s with back-to-back made cuts. Gannon dismissed the missed cut at Quail Hollow as an outlier and highlighted Fowler’s improved iron play since switching back to an older, trusted set. If he strings four rounds together instead of fading on the weekend, Gannon sees a Davis Riley-type surprise in the cards.

Matt Gannon is grabbing Cameron Davis at 80–90-1 in the ‘without Scheffler’ market. Davis showed signs of life last week and historically strings together hot stretches once the irons heat up. Gannon noted Davis’s best results come on sub-7,200-yard, positional tracks—he practices at Sahalee, one of the tightest courses in the Pacific Northwest—so he knows how to shape tee shots into fairways. Colonial’s minimal water mitigates Davis’s occasional penalty-stroke miss, and prior wins/top-5s at short venues like Rocket Mortgage, Sony and RBC Heritage prove upside. Gannon thinks the Aussie’s ceiling parallels players in the 30s, making the number an auto-bet.

Matt Gannon spotlighted Thorbjorn Olesen in the 50-to-65-1 range, comparing the Dane’s balanced game to Tommy Fleetwood at a steeper discount. Olesen ranks ahead of Tour average in fairways gained, sits positive in recent approach play, and has logged two top-7 finishes in his last five worldwide starts—including one in Texas—showing form travels. While Colonial will be his debut at the course, Gannon loves his fearless closing history (multiple DP World Tour wins) and thinks he can win outright rather than merely cash a ‘without Scheffler’ ticket. The combination of accuracy, steady irons, and legitimate trophy pedigree makes Olesen a core outright or top-10 add to Gannon’s card.

Dom Cintorino is going back to Akshay Bhatia at 70-1 even after a disappointing spring. He argued Colonial mirrors Harbour Town—the only stop this year where Bhatia flashed his ceiling by gaining 6.5 strokes on approach—because both reward driving accuracy and precise mid-iron play. Bhatia has logged two consecutive positive putting weeks and already owns a Texas win (2023 Valero). Cintorino is unconcerned with negative approach numbers at Quail Hollow, Augusta and Philly Cricket, calling them bomber tracks unsuited to Bhatia’s skill set. At a number rarely hung on a player with proven win equity and wedge wizardry, Cintorino sees a classic buy-low outright and first-round leader play.

Dom Cintorino said he is finally betting Lucas Glover in the 60-to-70-1 window for outright or runner-up tickets. Cintorino pointed to Glover’s perfect fit at Colonial: elite iron play (positive approach in six of his last seven starts) and a deep course-history book that includes gaining 6.8 strokes putting here last year—his best putting week since 2020—despite finishing only T12. Glover tees it up in Fort Worth every season and knows the sightlines, a critical edge on this positional layout. Cintorino admitted the putter is usually a liability but argued even half of last year’s spike combined with current ball-striking form gives Glover legitimate Sunday win equity at an odds tier normally reserved for less proven ball-strikers.

Matt Gannon circled J.J. Spaun as his preferred play in the mid-tier (30s-40s) outright window. He said Colonial’s traditional, accuracy-first setup is "exactly when you play Spaun," because the Californian can spike with his irons—he has gained 3+ strokes on approach in two of his last three starts. Gannon reminded listeners Spaun already owns a Texas win (2022 Valero) and has made nearly every cut this season, underscoring a high floor. With books posting numbers in the 40-1 neighborhood, Gannon believes Spaun’s combination of recent iron form, comfort in Texas, and a course that deemphasizes driving distance offers real win equity and top-five upside in each-way markets.

Matt Gannon forecasted Tommy Fleetwood as a likely runner-up—especially in the 'without Scheffler' market at 20-to-1. Gannon views Colonial as a perfect fit because Fleetwood has been "doing nothing but striping his irons," gaining on approach in five of his last six starts while not relying on distance. The Englishman’s price is shorter than it was a month ago despite essentially the same ball-striking metrics, which Gannon sees as value. He expects Fleetwood to leverage elite approach play and solid par-saving putting inside ten feet to back-door his way into contention Sunday, even if the long-running narrative of falling just short continues.

Dom Cintorino highlighted Aaron Rai as his favorite target in the low-20s outright range. Cintorino stressed Rai’s elite fairways-gained profile—one of the most accurate drivers on tour—which he believes is critical at tight Colonial. Rai has gained strokes tee-to-green and on approach in three straight starts, including a solid PGA Championship where he was +4.6 tee-to-green. After a cold start, Rai has quietly notched multiple consecutive top-20 finishes, showing form is trending at exactly the right time. Dom thinks the 25-30-to-1 numbers available (and even shorter in the ‘without Scheffler’ market) still underestimate his win equity in this diluted field.

Matt Gannon said he has no interest in fading Scottie Scheffler outright and will play the "without Scheffler" market instead. Gannon argued Colonial is tailor-made for Scheffler: it is another Texas stop he is motivated to win, its Harbour Town-style positional layout rewards his elite iron-spiking, and Scheffler just showed he can capture a trophy the week after a major (Harbour Town following the Masters). Gannon added that Scheffler wants "revenge" on Davis Riley after Riley upset him here last season. With books hanging Scheffler just under 3-to-1, Gannon thinks tying up bankroll in full-field outrights is pointless and recommends isolating the rest of the board in the without market.

Matt Gannon advised staying away from Ludvig Aberg tickets despite the course fitting his driver. Since missing the cut at the Valero, Aberg’s irons have cratered; Gannon noted he couldn’t even stick wedges close last week at Philadelphia Cricket Club and was outright poor with anything longer. With Quail Hollow demanding precise long-iron execution, Matt sees no path to contention until Aberg’s approach play rebounds, making him a clear fade in outrights and matchup markets.

Matt Gannon recommended Andrew Novak at plus money for a Top-40 finish, calling the Charlotte resident a ‘Carolina ATM’ for bettors. Novak ranks above TOUR average in every strokes-gained category this season and has cashed Top-40 tickets in six of his last nine starts. Matt likes the hometown comfort factor—Novak is a Panthers fan who frequently plays regional Bermuda tracks—and notes the steady driver/iron combo should translate even if Quail’s setup turns nasty. While Novak lacks the firepower to win, Gannon views him as an ideal cut-making accumulator in positional markets.

Matt Gannon locked in Dean Burmester at +330 for a Top-20 finish, arguing books have not adjusted to the South African’s LIV form. Burmester is, in Matt’s words, a “top-10 driver on the planet” and just won at the long, wind-exposed Trump Doral layout—a course comp he considers relevant given Quail’s length and Bermuda greens. The PGA’s rough fairness mitigates Burmester’s occasionally shaky wedges, letting his distance advantage shine. With Quail projected to reward total driving and a single-digit winning score, Matt thinks a simple fairway-plus-bomb formula gets Burmester on the first two pages of the leaderboard often enough to cash the ticket.

Matt Gannon took a stab on Min Woo Lee at 90-1, saying the Aussie’s ‘driver-and-putter’ profile mirrors Rory’s historical formula for Quail success. If wet conditions lower green-in-regulation percentages, Gannon believes Lee’s creativity and scrambling become an edge rather than a liability for his middling iron play. Lee already owns a worldwide win this season, has proven he can contend in majors (T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open), and ranks top-5 on TOUR in strokes-gained off-the-tee over the last 24 rounds. At nearly triple the price of other bomber-putter types, Matt sees an exploitable ceiling.

Matt Gannon grabbed Will Zalatoris at 130-1, calling it an overreaction to early-season rust. He reminded listeners that Zalatoris starred at Wake Forest and historically thrives on long, demanding Carolina layouts where the winning score hovers near single digits under par—exactly what he expects this week. Quail’s 500-plus-yard par-4s play into Zalatoris’s elite long-iron game, and Matt noted the Texan’s ball-striking was “about average” at Philadelphia despite finishing mid-pack. Because the PGA rarely turns into a putting contest, Matt is willing to live with Zalatoris’s shaky flat stick, arguing eight- to ten-under wins and that ceiling is well within Will Z’s range when the driver and irons click.

Matt Gannon circled Taylor Pendrith at 175-1 as his favorite triple-digit outright. Pendrith rates as a top-tier driver—he gains distance without sacrificing accuracy—and Quail Hollow stretches past 7,600 yards with multiple forced carries, a profile that matches Pendrith’s strengths. Matt’s model shows the Canadian gaining sharply in ball-striking over the last two months while even popping in sand-save percentage, an encouraging sign given Quail’s deep bunkers. Pendrith finished T10 at last year’s Wells Fargo on this same track and has historically rolled it well on Bermuda. Gannon conceded putting volatility at 175-1 but said the ceiling is clear if the driver stays hot.

Dom Cintorino sided with Shane Lowry at 60-1 in both outright and head-to-head markets over Sepp Straka. Dom expects the 2025 PGA Championship to play firm and difficult—similar to JT’s eight-under winning total in 2017—and believes Lowry’s elite bogey avoidance and major-championship scar tissue make him the safer bet. He pointed out that Lowry routinely hangs around par in tough setups, owns an Open title, and has positive Quail memories from finishing two back on Sunday at the Truist Classic. Conversely, Straka’s short-game flaws were hidden by the “ridiculously easy” surrounds at Philadelphia Cricket Club; Quail’s tighter green complexes should punish those same weaknesses. With both golfers priced in the 60s, Dom argues Lowry’s grinding skill set is clearly undervalued.

Matt Gannon endorsed Keith Mitchell at $6,200 even if he becomes the chalk of the 6K tier. Mitchell has a previous top-10 at Quail Hollow, owns a PGA Tour win on Bermuda greens, and is "playing great golf" this season, especially on Thursdays where he routinely rockets up leaderboards. Gannon argued you don’t need a victory from Mitchell; a repeat of that top-10 ceiling would destroy the price tag while freeing salary for elite options up top.

Matt Gannon highlighted Ryan Gerard at the stone-minimum $6,000 as a sneaky GPP dart. Gerard owns the course record at Panther National—Justin Thomas’s 7,900-yard Bermuda track—proving he can score on monster layouts. Gannon added that Gerard “hits the ball a long way” and has already flashed on other long, difficult venues, making Quail Hollow a logical fit. With virtually no buzz in the industry, Gerard offers extreme leverage for lineup builds that jam in expensive studs.

Matt Gannon said Daniel Berger is the lone player he trusts at the top of the $7K range, asserting that Berger’s current ball-striking metrics "are not that far off" Justin Thomas’s despite a $1,400 salary gap. Gannon observed that Berger has been "absolutely striping the ball" lately and is inching back toward the Ryder-Cup-level form he showed before injuries. Because the field will gravitate to chalky names in the 8K tier, Gannon plans to "put a lot of eggs" in Berger’s basket as a mid-salary anchor with genuine top-10 equity if the putter shows up.

Matt Gannon called Byeong Hun An his favorite sub-$7.5K play, saying "this is as Ben-An golf as it gets." The Korean told Gannon he needs firm Bermuda instead of soft wedge-fest setups, and that exact agronomy awaits at Quail Hollow. An finished third here at last year’s Wells Fargo and profiles perfectly for a course that demands length off the tee and comfort on slick greens. Gannon expects An’s ownership to sit well below double digits, giving DFS players cheap exposure to a bomber with proven course history and self-professed love for fast Bermuda conditions.

Matt Gannon advised fading Jason Day at $8,800 despite the Aussie’s sparkling Quail Hollow résumé. Gannon noted that Day has recently withdrawn from multiple starts and is still "not all the way there" physically. The current version of Day is leaning far too heavily on the putter while losing strokes with his irons—an approach Gannon insists will not cash at this long-iron-heavy major venue. Paying a near-9K salary for a player whose ceiling hinges on a hot flat stick rather than reliable tee-to-green performance is, in Gannon’s words, "not going to pay off."

Matt Gannon flagged Min Woo Lee as his favorite $8.6K tournament pivot. Gannon said Quail Hollow rewards players who can pair a "hot driver and hot putter"—the exact recipe that powered Rory McIlroy’s past wins and mirrors Lee’s boom-or-bust skill-set. With this year’s setup expected to produce a lower GIR percentage than normal, Gannon believes Lee’s ability to scramble after monster tee shots becomes an edge rather than a liability. He expects ownership to lag behind sexier names in the same price tier, creating classic leverage on a player who gains strokes mainly through distance and streaky putting, both high-ceiling paths on DraftKings.

Matt Gannon went back to the well with Tony Finau at +330 for a top-20, pointing to Finau’s T-15 tune-up last week as proof he has finally “shown a little life.” Gannon stressed Quail Hollow’s 7,600-yard layout as a perfect fit: Finau ranks top-10 on TOUR in driving distance and gains over a stroke on approach when irons extend past 175 yards—exactly the yardage bucket Quail’s par-4s demand. The host added that Finau’s historically high apex flight mitigates Quail’s elevated green complexes, boosting GIR rates even if conditions firm up. Because Finau cashed a similar ticket at the recent Truist Classic and now lands on an even better statistical course fit, Gannon thinks the +330 price undersells Finau’s floor and provides repeatable value in positional markets.

Dom Cintorino hammered Daniel Berger at roughly +350 for a top-20 finish, calling it a “for-sure, mortgage play.” Dom compared Berger’s recent ball-striking numbers to Justin Thomas and found them virtually identical across strokes-gained off-the-tee and approach, a signal Berger’s pre-injury peak form is returning. He noted Berger is gaining over 1.2 strokes per round tee-to-green across his last three starts, the same profile that earned him Ryder Cup honors and multiple PGA TOUR wins. Cintorino thinks the books will slash Berger’s positional odds once the broader betting market notices, so he wants to lock in the 3.5-to-1 price before it shortens. With Quail Hollow demanding elite long-iron play and rewarding those who flight their driver accurately, he believes Berger’s trending ball-striking guarantees four steady rounds and an inside-track to the first two pages of the leaderboard.