Guy Boston Sports recommended taking the Diamondbacks team total (5+ runs) or the full-game over 9.5 in Arizona-Texas, explaining that he is fading Patrick Corbin despite the left-hander’s eight-inning shutout of the Angels last week. He trusts Arizona’s bats, fresh off a series win over the Dodgers and ranking top-10 in wRC+ versus southpaws, to exploit Corbin’s season-long volatility. He also emphasized that Texas has scored 9, 9, 5 and 27 runs in its last five games, so the Rangers could push the game total even if Corbin exits early. His projection shows a 4.9–4.7 final—essentially 10 runs—and he thinks late-inning variance, including possible extras, creates multiple outs to hit double-digit scoring. Because the Rangers’ offense is scorching, he prefers a Diamondbacks TT or the over to laying –150 on the Arizona moneyline.

Guy Boston Sports said to attack the first-five innings under 5.5 runs in Mariners-Rays. He highlighted Luis Castillo’s last outing—seven strikeouts, no homers, only two walks—as evidence the right-hander can rebound to his pre-August form when he was routinely shutting teams down. Because Castillo and Tampa Bay’s starter both carry swing-and-miss stuff and hold matchup edges over the opposing lineups, he expects a low-scoring start even though the full-game side is a pick’em. The stronger angle, in his view, is the F5 under because early offense should be muted before bullpens enter.

Guy Boston Sports backed the Padres moneyline and suggested an Orioles team-total UNDER 3.5 (if plus money) in San Diego. Dylan Cease has been markedly better at Petco and throws a slider 40 percent of the time; Baltimore’s lineup owns the second-worst slider run value over the last 30 days, with only Gunnar Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle and Jeremiah Jackson showing positive marks. If Cease navigates that trio the rest of the order is flailing. The Orioles have dropped 8 of 10 and now head West while the Padres boast a 43-21 home record. Kyle Braddish punched out 10 Red Sox in his return, but San Diego has the league’s lowest strikeout rate over the past month, so regression is likely. With park dimensions plus Cease’s profile suppressing hard contact, Guy prefers the Padres as the side and would layer an O’s TT under where the juice allows.

Guy Boston Sports sounded the psycho alert and targeted the plus-money White Sox as live dogs on Monday. Minnesota is listed around –190 behind Bailey Ober, a price he feels is wildly inflated because Ober has been extremely volatile of late. Chicago’s offense has quietly woken up over the past month, rating among the league’s best versus change-ups—the pitch they are projected to see most from Ober. If Ober’s slider hangs, the Sox have enough pop to punish him, and once he exits they get to attack a Minnesota bullpen that sits bottom-five in ERA. He also sees value on the full-game over because either Aaron Civale or Bryce Wilson could flame out for Chicago and Minnesota has shown some life at the plate in its last four games, but the primary edge is simply grabbing the White Sox moneyline at a bloated price.

Guy Boston Sports said to back Brian Bayo and the Red Sox against Cleveland. He pointed out that Bayo’s sinker-slider combo matches up perfectly with a Guardians lineup that ranks 28th against sinkers and 22nd against sliders. Cleveland has stayed under 4.5 runs in nine of its last ten road games and in 66% of all road contests this season, so he is comfortable taking the Cleveland team total under 4.5 as well. On the Boston side, rookie Parker Messick will throw 45 percent fastballs, a pitch the Red Sox still crush—only three projected starters have a negative runs-above-average number versus heaters—making Boston’s moneyline or team-total-over attractive. The tout expects Bayo’s recent run of form to continue and considers him a viable DFS arm in addition to the betting angles.

Guy Boston Sports singled out Andy Ibanez over 0.5 hits at –165 as his favorite prop in Tigers-Mets. Ibanez is blistering left-handed pitching, batting .387 over the last 30 days, and has positive run-values against both four-seamers and sliders—the two offerings Morton relies on. Slotted in the middle of Detroit’s lineup, he needs just one knock to cash. Given Morton’s inconsistent command and Ibanez’s recent success against the exact pitch mix he’ll see, Guy Boston Sports views the price as fair value but would not pay anything steeper.

Guy Boston Sports liked a two-pack in Tigers-Mets: Mets moneyline and over 8.5 runs. He called Charlie Morton’s recent form unreliable and highlighted that Detroit’s entire top of the order carries negative run-value numbers against four-seam fastballs, the pitch Morton throws 62% of the time. Sean Manaea usually caps at five innings with three earned, so he isn’t worried about backing New York bats. The Mets lineup profiles well against Morton and owns the superior bullpen for late-inning leverage. With two hittable starters and average defenses, he expects the total to sail past eight and a half while the Mets prevail.

Guy Boston Sports recommended backing the Toronto Blue Jays as short underdogs and taking the over 8.5 runs in Reds-Jays. Hunter Greene has flashed 100-mph heat but is still giving up homers (two to the Dodgers) and owns uninspiring numbers versus current Jays hitters. Chris Bassitt comes in hot with a 2.20 ERA over his last five starts, yet his road splits—5.00 FIP and .295 BAA—show real risk. Both bullpens were taxed on Sunday (five relievers for Toronto, four for Cincinnati), so he expects late-inning fireworks. Bassitt has dominated right-handed bats (1.10 WHIP, 25% K, 4% BB) and Cincinnati projects to roll out six-plus righties, tipping the edge toward Toronto while the total pushes into double digits.

Guy Boston Sports said the only angle he could truly justify in Nationals – Marlins was the over 9 runs and a lean to Washington on the moneyline. Both starters—Andrew Alvarez for Washington and Morgan McSweeney for Miami—are making their first big-league appearances, so he expects nerves and shaky command. He noted Alvarez is a left-hander and Miami owns one of the league’s worst wOBA marks versus southpaws over the last 30 days. Even if the rookies survive, he doesn’t trust either bullpen: both clubs sit bottom-10 in ERA and WHIP. With suspect arms on the mound and in relief, he projects plenty of offense and slightly favors the home Nationals.

Guy Boston Sports targeted Lawrence Butler’s Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs. He noted Butler has poor results against sliders, sinkers, and four-seam fastballs— the three pitches George Kirby throws most. Although Butler’s speed occasionally generates extra bases, the substantial pitch-type mismatch makes multi-category production unlikely. With Kirby’s elite command forcing contact on Butler’s weaker swing paths, Guy Boston Sports is comfortable betting the Under despite Butler’s athleticism.

Guy Boston Sports also suggested fading Oakland’s offense with a team-total Under. He believes their recent surge is unsustainable away from the Coliseum and especially in pitcher-friendly Seattle. George Kirby’s fastball/slider mix plus a top-tier Mariners bullpen should stifle the A’s, and he expects the lineup to "come back down to earth." If books hang a low 3.5 or similar number, he is comfortable taking the Under as an alternate way to capitalize on the same matchup dynamics driving his Seattle pick.

Guy Boston Sports recommended laying a run with Seattle (-1 or ‑1.5) against Oakland. He cited three edges: George Kirby gives the Mariners a clear starting-pitching advantage over Jeffrey Springs, Seattle’s bullpen is deeper and more reliable, and T-Mobile Park suppresses offense. While the Athletics’ bats have been hot, he expects them to cool on the road, noting the matchup still tilts toward Seattle in talent and recent bullpen form. Because the moneyline is likely too juiced, he prefers the run-line to extract value.

Guy Boston Sports said bettors should look at both the Cubs team-total Over and the moneyline as long as Chicago is priced inside –150 whenever they face a right-handed starter who leans on the slider. The Cubs have been inconsistent overall, but he pointed out they are "actually succeeding" almost exclusively against right-handed sliders, giving them a clear matchup edge. Because the opposing bullpen is unlikely to bail out that starter, he is willing to lay the chalk up to –150 and also play the team total Over rather than chase a bigger number.

Guy Boston Sports plans to attack a Cubs team-total over against Angels right-hander Victor Maderos, provided Chicago opens at –150 or shorter. Maderos leans on a sinker/slider mix, and the tout pointed out that the Cubs’ right-handed core—Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong—has crushed sliders all month. Chicago’s offense was held in check the night before, so he expects positive regression in a friendly matchup. Final confidence will depend on how both pens are used in the ongoing game, but pitch-mix data and recent Cubs success versus sliders make their TT over his early lean.

Guy Boston Sports intends to back the Dodgers and their team total over versus left-hander Nestor ("Nesco") Cortez. The Dodgers rank fourth in average, ninth in slugging, sixth in OPS, and sixth in OBP against southpaws over the past 30 days, while Cortez owns one of MLB’s worst walk rates. With Tyler Glasnow on the mound, the tout expects L.A. to control run prevention and cash a crooked-number inning or two when Cortez inevitably hangs a fastball or cutter. He will re-check bullpen usage from the current game, but barring major relief overwork the Dodgers’ bats are his preferred play.

Guy Boston Sports likes Cincinnati’s team total over against Arizona spot-starter Nabil Crismatt. Crismatt has only one 2025 start (5 IP, 1 ER in Coors) and just two career starts overall, so the tout questions his ability to turn a lineup over. BallparkPal shows a +10 % run-environment bump at Great American Ball Park, another green light for runs. Although the Reds are notoriously streaky—he dubbed them the “Cincinnati roller-coasters”—their last ten games feature eight outings of five or more runs. He expects Andrew Abbott to provide serviceable pitching on the Cincinnati side while the offense capitalizes, highlighting Miguel Andujar and Noelvi Marte as prop considerations.

Guy Boston Sports leaned to the Mets at –125 and suggested a Braves team-total under. He trusts Clay Holmes, who carries a 2.2 ERA over his last five starts, to rebound from a shaky three-and-two-thirds, five-run outing against Atlanta just 10 days ago. Holmes’ sinker/slider mix normally gives the Braves trouble. On the flip side, Cal Quantrill’s fastball and cutter are pitches the Mets handle well, and he expects New York’s lineup—despite recent lulls—to be superior in a vacuum. As long as the price stays south of –130, he is comfortable paying the freight to back the Mets’ side.

Guy Boston Sports called this a classic split ticket: play the first-three-innings under thanks to a Freddie Peralta–Logan Webb showdown, then hammer the Brewers team total over for the full game. Peralta’s four-seam heater (“Fastball Freddie”) and Webb’s sinker/slider combo make clean early frames likely, yet the tout prefers Milwaukee’s bats once bullpens enter. He trusts the Brewers lineup, which has been red-hot and just walked off behind William Contreras, far more than a Giants offense he "doesn’t believe in." Even acknowledging San Francisco’s success versus fastballs, he still sees Milwaukee opening things up late while the total sits at only 7.5.

Guy Boston Sports likes Isiah Kiner-Falefa UNDER 1.5 total bases as a standalone play or paired with an alternate game total. Kiner-Falefa owns just a .529 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year and draws Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland, whose cutter/curve combo Kiner-Falefa grades a poor 2.6 on the show’s internal pitch-mix scale. With Pittsburgh projected for only 3.9 runs, the tout expects limited plate appearances and minimal hard contact, making the plus-juice under appealing.

Guy Boston Sports said Kansas City is worth a money-line bet so long as the price stays at -130 or better. He expects Royals starter Cole Ragans to keep Detroit* to two or three earned over six innings, and Ballpark Pal shows a +9 % run-index boost at Comerica, giving upside to Kansas City’s team-total over. On the other side, Chris Paddack’s career 4.76 ERA against the Royals and a rough last outing point to continued trouble. The tout added that Detroit* right-hander Ty Walker has been good but is showing signs of looming regression, another reason to back KC while the market still hangs a short number.

Guy Boston Sports prefers Kansas City on the moneyline and would sprinkle their team total over at Comerica. Michael Wacha has rattled off five straight six-inning, two-run outings and relies on a fastball-changeup-cutter mix that Detroit is not hitting (the Tigers’ damage comes almost exclusively off sinkers and sliders, pitches Wacha uses only 20 % of the time). Chris Paddack, meanwhile, is coming off an eight-earned meltdown and carries ugly history versus this KC lineup. Statcast gives Comerica a +9 % run-scoring environment Saturday, further boosting the Royals’ offense. With Detroit riding an 8-2 run, the market is giving plus money on the steadier starter; the tout is happy to grab it.

Guy Boston Sports spotlighted Kyle Schwarber as the best one-off bet on the slate. Schwarber owns plus numbers versus four-seamers and curves—the two offerings Parker throws 75 % of the time. Parker’s splits against left-handed hitters are dreadful: 1.72 WHIP, 5.35 FIP, .282 average allowed and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Schwarber’s 15.8 % barrel rate at Citizens Bank combined with Parker’s 43 % hard-hit profile sets up a multi-RBI game. The tout prefers Schwarber over 1.5 total bases or H/R/RBI over 1.5, adding that the Nats may hand him two cracks at that bullpen if Parker departs early.

Guy Boston Sports called Saturday a "Phillies spot" and is attacking their team total instead of laying −230. Mitchell Parker starts for Washington and “gives up four runs with his breakfast,” per the tout. Against left-handed bats Parker allows a brutal 1.72 WHIP, 5.35 FIP, .282 average, 14 % strikeout and 12 % walk rates. Philadelphia’s right-hand-heavy order crushes fastballs (Parker’s 58 % usage) and the Nationals’ bullpen used all three high-leverage arms Friday, leaving MLB’s worst relief corps stretched thin. Add a revenge narrative after Friday’s 5-4 Phillies loss and Citizens Bank’s top-five power factor, and the tout prefers Phillies team total over 5.5 to the expensive moneyline.

Guy Boston Sports targeted George Springer’s hits-plus-runs-plus-RBI line at 1.5, calling it a strong over against Miami spot-starter Jansen Junk. Junk throws sliders 46 % of the time; Toronto owns the league’s best run value versus sliders over the past 30 days, and Springer’s personal pitch-mix rating is "green" against both Junk’s slider and four-seam fastball. Junk typically lasts only 4–5 innings and allows about three earned runs, leaving Springer another couple of plate appearances against a bottom-ten Marlins bullpen. With a favorable roof-closed hitting environment and the Jays’ 5.1 implied total, the tout expects Springer to cash the combo in three trips or fewer.

Guy Boston Sports also suggested grabbing the full-game under if an 8 re-appears (some shops down to 7.5). He cited two strong bullpens plus a Webb-Boyle matchup he expects to favor pitching over hitting. Despite Tampa’s brief outburst versus Oakland, he questioned their night-to-night consistency, and he does not fully trust the Giants’ bats either. With both offenses prone to lulls, he believes any total at 8 or higher offers value, or bettors can isolate a Rays team-total under.

Guy Boston Sports liked San Francisco at –130/-137 with Logan Webb back from the 15-day IL after a strong first 20 starts. He trusts Webb over Joe Boyle, noting Boyle’s volatility in his last five outings and heavy fastball mix—a pitch the Giants are currently handling well. He called Tampa’s recent 8- and 7-run outbursts against Oakland an outlier for an otherwise inconsistent lineup and pointed out both clubs’ quality bullpens, concluding the Giants carry a modest but real edge at home.

Guy Boston Sports said he is willing to lay the roughly –140 price on Los Angeles. He expects the Dodgers to bring "110 % effort" with standings at stake, while the market has already nudged the line toward them. Although he acknowledged the Padres’ recent uptick in form, the speaker trusts the combination of urgency and overall roster edge to get L.A. across the finish line.

Guy Boston Sports recommended attacking the full-game over 8.5 in Padres-Dodgers. He reasoned that even if Clayton Kershaw is touched early, the real scoring upside appears when Los Angeles hands the ball to a bullpen he called "not the best." With San Diego swinging well and motivation high on both sides, he painted a 5-4 type finish that lands comfortably over the posted total.

Despite losing four straight, the tout believes this home set versus San Diego is where the Dodgers wake up. Clayton Kershaw owns a 1.60 ERA across his last five and should handle three-inning Michael King, who is coming off a two-inning, two-run tune-up after a May injury. He likes the Dodgers side and their team total over, citing an urgent divisional race and a struggling Padres bullpen. Because the Los Angeles pen has been shaky too, he also likes the full-game over 8.5, envisioning a 5-4 type finish regardless of winner.

Guy Boston Sports is leaning toward the Angels as underdogs and to the full-game over. He acknowledges Yusei Kikuchi’s road ERA issues but notes the left-hander dominates left-handed bats – important because several of Oakland’s key hitters (Nick Kurtz, etc.) swing lefty. Perkins has been unspectacular for the A’s, and both bullpens are bottom-tier. While Oakland’s 30-day offensive numbers look better in aggregate, the Angels have scored 6-7-7-5-7-5-4-3-5-8 runs in their last ten, showing steadier output. Given the pitching matchup, disastrous relief corps on both sides and recent scoring trends, he wants Angels plus money and will sprinkle on the over.

Guy Boston Sports said that if the probables hold—Framber Valdez versus Brandon Young—he’ll be on the Astros moneyline and likely their team total over. Valdez returns home after two rocky road starts; he owns a sub-3 ERA at Minute Maid and faces an Orioles lineup that has scored four or fewer in seven of its last ten. Young profiles as an over-matched spot arm, further tilting the matchup. The tout called it a classic bounce-back ‘hammer home’ spot for both Valdez and Houston’s bats.

Guy Boston Sports circled Josh Naylor’s Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI prop. Naylor is scorching lefties over the last 30 days (.424 AVG, 1.152 OPS) and owns +3.1 RAA versus fastballs and +2.8 versus sliders—exactly what he’ll see most from Sean Manaea. With the pitch-mix edge and recent form, he expects two plus events from Naylor tonight.

Guy Boston Sports ‘kind of likes’ the Mets as short home dogs with Sean Manaea opposite Luis Castillo. Castillo’s road ERA is 4.34 with a .324 wOBA allowed, and this will be his first start away from Seattle in nearly three weeks after a cross-country flight. Manaea’s slider is his put-away pitch and Seattle ranks 26th against sliders on the site’s dashboard. With the Mets sleeping in their own beds and the plus money attached, he thinks the edge tilts to New York.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Boston but preferred the Red Sox team total over (projected 4.5). Fenway’s bunch averages 5.26 runs at home and 7.0 over their last three. Sandy Alcantara’s mini resurgence vanished once he faced Houston and Atlanta, giving up 12 earned in those two starts, and Miami’s bullpen sits bottom-10 in ERA. With the Marlins still on a long road swing and the Sox returning home, he expects Boston to push past five runs Friday night.

Guy Boston Sports advised trimming the fat by playing the Rangers’ team total under (likely 3.5) instead of backing Toronto outright. The entire handicap rests on Texas being dead last in runs above average against sinkers over the past month while facing one of the heaviest sinker throwers in baseball. Betting the under insulates the play from a potential Jacob deGrom gem—Bassitt only has to keep Texas quiet for the ticket to cash.

Guy Boston Sports recommended taking Atlanta at plus money because left-hander Joey Cantillo leans on a fastball that the Braves are destroying. Over the last 30 days Atlanta sits top-10 in wRC+ against fastballs and left-handed pitching, hitting .293 with a 123 WRC+ and the second-highest walk rate versus southpaws. Cantillo’s command has wavered, and Atlanta’s deep right-handed core brings the platoon advantage. With Eric Fetty no great shakes for Cleveland either, he thinks the plus price should not last.

Guy Boston Sports said he is willing to grab Toronto at plus money because Chris Bassitt’s 44-percent-usage sinker lines up perfectly with Texas’ biggest weakness. Over the last 30 days the Rangers rank dead last in run value versus sinkers, while Bassitt leans on the pitch more than any starter on tonight’s slate. On the other side Jacob deGrom has surrendered 13 earned runs in 17 innings against the Angels, Mariners and Phillies, so he is not in peak form. With a Blue Jays offense that still grades top-10 in wRC+ and ISO, the tout believes the market is undervaluing the better lineup in this matchup.

Guy Boston Sports recommended betting the first-three-innings under 2.5 (−125 Caesars) and first-five under 4.5 in Friday’s Nationals-Phillies matchup featuring MacKenzie Gore and Zack Wheeler. Gore is coming off a 10-strikeout, six-shutout-inning gem against San Francisco, while Wheeler owns a 1.7 ERA across his last three starts versus Washington despite a modest 3.20 mark over his past five overall. The tout highlighted Philadelphia’s season-long struggles against left-handed pitching and Washington’s generally light lineup, concluding that the scoring drought should hold at least through the first half of the game. Because both bullpens have shaky middle relief, he prefers these early markets to the full-game total of 8, though he would still lean under there as well.