Boston recommended playing the Rockies team total UNDER 4.5 runs at Coors despite the altitude bump. He trusts Jesus Luzardo to neutralize Colorado’s lineup, reminding listeners the Rockies rank 29th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching and generate negative run value on both four-seamers and sliders—the two pitches Luzardo throws a combined 73% of the time. Boston acknowledged the risk of a taxed Phillies bullpen but noted key leverage arms rested last night, giving Philadelphia enough bullets to protect a late lead. The elevation inflates the number to 4.5; if this game were in Philly it would be 3.5, so Boston is happy to pay the juice for the extra run of cushion. He projected five to six innings of two-run work from Luzardo and expects the Rockies to finish with three or fewer overall.

Boston suggested fading the White Sox offense with a team-total UNDER (either full game or F5) due to brutal hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field. Forecast calls for steady rain and a 15-mph wind blowing straight in, and Boston cited historical data showing run expectancy in Chicago drops 18% when winds exceed 12 mph. The White Sox already rank last in MLB in wOBA and runs per game; layering weather suppression on top makes any 3.0-plus team-total ‘too high’ in his view. Seattle’s starter is undecided, but Boston said even a replacement-level arm will benefit from the environment, and the Mariners bullpen sits eighth in xFIP over the past two weeks. He would play Chicago’s F5 TT under 1.5 at plus money or full-game under 3.5 if books hang it, projecting no more than two Sox runs all night.

Guy Boston laid out a full-unit play on the Padres money line in Toronto. He noted Dylan Cease leans almost exclusively on a four-seam/slider combo (combined 66% usage) and that is kryptonite for the Jays: Toronto ranks 26th in run value vs fastballs and dead last vs sliders. Outside of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., every projected Blue Jay posts a negative run value against sliders. Boston contrasted that with San Diego’s lineup, which averages 4.7 runs per road game and has been far more consistent. On the other side Chris Bassitt throws his sinker 40-plus percent of the time, a pitch the Padres grade below average against, so Boston passed on the SD team-total over 3.5. Instead he trusts the Padres’ superior bullpen (top-10 xFIP last two weeks vs Toronto’s middle-of-the-pack group) to win it late if necessary. Factor in the motivation angle—San Diego was just swept by Seattle—and Boston is comfortable betting and forgetting San Diego at roughly even money.

Boston is betting the Yankees first-five team total over 2.5 runs against Patrick Corbin. New York’s lineup grades top-10 against sinkers and #1 against cutters—two of Corbin’s three most-used offerings—over the past 30 days. The Bombers also crush sliders, giving them positive run-value against the entire Corbin arsenal. Although the Yankees have surpassed three runs in the opening five frames only once in their last five, Boston expects that to normalize given the pitch-type edge and Corbin’s 5.23 xERA. He also leans full-game over because Will Warren’s 2.86 ERA sits nearly two runs below his 4.60 xFIP and a volatile New York bullpen could allow a late Rangers surge.

Boston likes Houston at +104 and their team total over 4.0 against Zack Littell and a punch-less Rays offense. Tampa struggles badly versus lefties (.271 wOBA, 28th) and draws southpaw Brandon Walter making his first MLB start in two years. While Littell owns decent expected numbers (xBA .240, xwOBA .275 in 49 PA vs Astros), Boston trusts an Astros lineup that has scored four or more in three of its last four and is finally showing consistency. With Tampa’s sticks offering little margin for error—outside one 10-run spike last week—Boston projects Houston to win a 5-3 type contest and sees value any time their potent core is catching plus money.

Boston leaned to the Dodgers first-five run line (-0.5, roughly ‑125) behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto opposite Ryne Nelson. Even after being tagged for five earned by Arizona in April, Yamamoto sports a 2.68 FIP, 31% K-rate and the league’s fourth-best splitter whiff rate. Nelson, meanwhile, owns a 6.07 xERA and gives up a .356 wOBA when facing left-handed bats—which is a problem against a Dodger lineup that could run six lefties plus Shohei Ohtani. Los Angeles has cashed the F5 run line in 10 of Yamamoto’s 12 starts, averaging 3.9 runs in the opening five frames. Boston expects Dave Roberts to push Yamamoto deeper this time after limiting him to 82 pitches in the previous matchup, projecting a 3–1 or 4–1 Dodger lead through five. He prefers the F5 angle over the full game to avoid a potentially fatigued LA bullpen after back-to-back high-leverage nights.

Boston advised taking San Francisco on the money line behind 22-year-old righty Hayden Birdsong in his first 2025 start. Birdsong posted a 2.11 ERA and 34% K-rate in multi-inning relief this year and throws a slider 42% of the time—bad news for a Kansas City lineup that grades 27th in run value versus sliders. Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .312 average and .507 slug to current Giant hitters across 71 plate appearances, and Boston pointed out Lorenzen’s swinging-strike rate has dipped below 8% for the first time since 2020. While conceding Birdsong could struggle with command, Boston still sees more paths to a Giants win, citing San Francisco’s superior OBP, a rested back-end bullpen, and Oracle Park’s marine layer keeping any Royals hard contact in the yard. He projected a 5-3 Giants victory and would play them down to ‑115.

Guy Boston said to lay the Tigers first-five run line (-0.5, around ‑135) with Tarik Skubal on the hill in St. Louis. Boston expects another dominant outing from the left-hander, noting that Skubal’s 1.97 ERA is backed by a 30% strike-out rate and .263 xwOBA allowed. He contrasted that with Eric Fetty, who has spun back-to-back scoreless starts—but against Washington and Pittsburgh—calling it prime regression bait. Fetty relies on a 53% sinker usage, and Detroit sits top-10 in run value versus sinkers while holding plus marks against his slider and cutter as well. Boston added that the Tigers have been exactly 50-50 on the F5 run line in Skubal starts but believes the matchup tips the scales: Detroit projects at least two early runs while Skubal works five innings of 0–1-run ball. He dismissed a full-game play because the Tigers bullpen has wobbled on the road, making the F5 the cleaner angle.

Guy Boston recommended playing George Springer UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (at plus money) against Dylan Cease. Springer owns a .365 season-long wOBA that plummets to .225 against sliders and he carries a 40% strike-out rate versus that pitch. Cease throws sliders 39% of the time, ranking top-10 in swinging-strike rate with the offering. Toronto collectively ranks 30th in run value against sliders, meaning Springer is unlikely to get many cushion fastballs in hitter’s counts. Boston added that Springer’s platoon splits are worse against right-handed power arms and that the wind is forecast to knock down fly balls at Rogers Centre tonight. With Cease projected for six innings and San Diego sporting a rested, high-strikeout bullpen, Boston doubts Springer sees enough quality contact to clear the 1.5 threshold.

Boston singled out Cody Bellinger over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (or total bases) as his favorite Yankee prop. Bellinger owns a .390 average (7-for-18) with two RBIs and just a 15% K-rate in 20 career plate appearances versus Patrick Corbin. His 2025 splits versus left-handed pitching are elite—.298/.379/.571 with a 165 wRC+. Corbin, meanwhile, allows a .287 opponent average and .482 slug to lefty bats and ranks in the bottom 10% in hard-hit rate. Boston expects Bellinger to hit in the heart of an order that profiles perfectly against Corbin’s sinker/cutter/slider trio, forecasting multiple opportunities to clear the 1.5 benchmark.

Boston again went back to the well on Josh Bell under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Bell has cashed that under in seven of his last nine, owns just a .180 average versus right-handers this year, and draws Strider’s overpowering fastball/slider combo. After two outlier big games against Baltimore, Boston expects regression against a pitcher who holds lefties to a .257 wOBA and has generated a 21% swinging-strike rate on sliders alone. Bell’s projected slot in the order (clean-up) still leaves him vulnerable to pitch-around scenarios with runners on, further limiting counting stat upside.

Boston suggested playing Nathaniel Lowe under 0.5 singles at plus money. Lowe is batting just .227 on the season and struggles versus elite velocity. Strider’s slider, change and curve profile as his #2-#4 offerings, and left-handed hitters own a .188 batting average against those secondary pitches since 2023. With Strider striking out 38% of lefties and allowing only 0.56 singles per inning to that side, Boston doubts Lowe puts one in play cleanly enough to leg out a knock.

Guy Boston recommended laying the Braves first-five run line (-0.5, ‑120) behind Spencer Strider’s second start off the IL. Boston admitted Atlanta’s lineup is weaker versus left-handed pitching, yet still prefers trusting Strider over Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker, who has been torched for 19 earned runs across his last four starts (all 4.0–5.0 IP stints, including four earned versus these same Braves). Atlanta has covered the F5 run line in eight of its last nine games (seven straight) and owns a rested bullpen if the full-game run line is preferred. Strider’s hamstring looked fine in his return, his four-seam sat 97.3 mph, and Washington’s lineup projects for the sixth-lowest wOBA vs high-velocity fastballs. Boston expects two trips through the order of near-ace level run prevention and penciled in a 3–1 type lead through five.

Guy Boston leaned to the game OVER (and a small sprinkle on the Red Sox) in Walker Buehler’s first start off the 15-day IL. He argued that New York’s offense—held to 10 total runs in its last six games—is due for positive regression and profiles well against Buehler’s four-seam/cutter-heavy mix. On the other side, Clay Holmes owns sparkling career numbers versus Boston (0.152 AVG, .187 wOBA) but has alternated good and bad starts; after getting rocked by Pittsburgh last time out, Boston expects another shaky road effort. He added that Fenway temps will be chilly with a light breeze blowing in, yet not enough to suppress hard contact. With both bullpens carrying mid-week workloads, Boston projected each club to plate at least four runs, making the over his preferred play.

Guy Boston recommended backing Cincinnati on the full-game money-line, the first-five money-line, and looking at a Reds team-total OVER. He cited Bailey Falter’s ugly career stat line against Cincinnati’s current roster—69 PA, only a 14.5 % strikeout rate, nearly equal 13 % walk rate, .383 average, .489 wOBA and .614 xSLG. Although Falter has worked three straight quality outings, Boston views that as a classic setup for regression, predicting a 5 IP, 2–3 ER type game at best. Nick Martinez owns a 35 % K-rate versus this Pirates lineup and Cincinnati’s bullpen, while taxed, still grades out better than Pittsburgh’s. Boston doesn’t trust the Pirate bats—referencing multiple 1-run outputs even behind Paul Skenes—so he passed on the full-game total but expects the Reds to reach four or more runs on their own.

Guy Boston advised taking the Cubs money-line and their team total OVER 3.5 runs against Miami. He expects serious regression from Ryan Weathers, pointing out that Weathers’ only start this season came against these very Cubs and Chicago has now seen his fastball/slider mix once. Boston noted the Cubs tagged Marlins pitching for seven runs in Monday’s loss and sit top-10 in wOBA versus four-seamers and sliders. Miami’s bullpen threw 6.1 high-stress innings last night and ranks 24th in xFIP over the past two weeks, while Jameson Taillon, though hardly elite, owns a 3.33 FIP in Wrigley this year. Boston labeled the –135 price on Chicago a ‘trap’ that he is willing to spring, projecting 4–5 Cubs runs by the seventh inning.

Guy Boston expects Cincinnati to stop Chicago’s bid for a road sweep, recommending a Reds first-five wager. His angle revolves around standard "bounce-back" logic: the White Sox have only 13–14 wins all season yet have taken the first two games, and Cincinnati’s lineup finally woke up in the late innings on Wednesday. Back at Great American Ball Park, Boston believes the Reds will press the early edge before bullpens enter, making the first-five line the safer play.

Boston prefers the Orioles’ team-total over rather than the full-game total. Paddack’s 46 % fly-ball rate and difficulty keeping the ball on the ground collide with a hot, humid Camden Yards and a five-mph breeze to left. Baltimore already ranks near the top of MLB in barrel rate against right-handers, giving them multiple paths to crooked numbers. He avoided the full-game over because Sagano induces grounders and Minnesota profiles as a ground-ball offense, but sees a clear edge in backing Baltimore’s bats to clear their individual number.

Guy Boston backed Baltimore to avoid a three-game sweep against Minnesota. He cited the "no-sweep" angle, Baltimore’s superior numbers versus right-handed pitching, and Chris Paddack’s road inconsistency. Sagano has posted three straight quality outings (5 scoreless vs NYY, 6 strong vs KC, 7.2 IP/1 ER vs LAA) while the hot, humid conditions and modest wind blowing out favor Baltimore’s fly-ball heavy lineup. With the Twins only two games over .500, Boston expects the Orioles to seize a mid-game lead and protect it late.

Guy Boston advised taking Washington on the first-five moneyline rather than the full game. He argued that AJ Smith-Shawver’s small-sample success does not justify Atlanta’s –202 price tag because Trevor Williams has held the current Braves roster to a .257 average and .302 wOBA over 126 PA. With the Nationals’ bullpen ranking near the bottom of MLB, Boston wants to isolate the starting-pitcher matchup, where he believes the talent gap is far narrower than the market implies.

Guy Boston recommended playing Chandler Simpson under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at minus-105 or better. The handicap keys on Kevin Gausman’s pitch mix—four-seam, splitter and occasional slider—three offerings Simpson has struggled with at every minor-league stop. Gausman is limiting left-handers to a .190 batting average this season and sports a 31 % strikeout rate against them. Boston added that Gausman’s splitter generates a 37 % whiff rate, a nightmare for a contact-oriented rookie like Simpson. Because books opened the prop as high as –115, Boston sees value only if the number is –105 to –110; anything worse than –115 erodes the edge in his model.

Guy Boston said he is fading Austin Riley under 2.5 hits + runs + RBI on Thursday. The handicap leans heavily on Trevor Williams’ splits: a .205 batting average and .225 wOBA allowed to right-handed hitters this season with zero HR/9. Riley owns only 2 hits in 18 career plate appearances against Williams while striking out 44 %. Williams relies on sliders (40 %) and four-seamers (36 %), two pitches against which Riley’s wOBA plummets compared with his season baseline. Boston acknowledged Riley’s recent hot streak but trusts the combination of pitch mix, prior history, and Williams’ effectiveness versus righties to keep Riley below the 3 counting-stat threshold, even after Atlanta eventually reaches Washington’s shaky bullpen.

Guy Boston recommended playing Jose Tena under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in the opener against Bryce Elder. Boston expects Elder to feature his slider 35-40 % of the time— the pitch has limited right-handers to a .191 expected batting average with a 35 % whiff rate this season. Tena carries a −3 run value versus sliders and is slugging just .286 against pitches that break glove-side at 85 mph or harder. Boston added that Atlanta’s bullpen owns a top-three xFIP the past two weeks, so even if Tena avoids Elder a second time, he will still be staring at premium relief arms. With Boston already on the first-five under in this contest, he doubts Tena will collect the two counting stats needed to bust the prop.

Guy Boston circled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (−120) as his favorite way to attack Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot relies on a four-seam/change/slider mix for 82 % of his pitches, and Guerrero grades out plus vs all three offerings on Boston’s dashboard, posting a .315 AVG and .560 SLG against that exact mix this season. Pepiot’s fly-ball tendencies play into Vlad’s pull-side power in the dome, and Boston added that Toronto’s lineup construction should guarantee RBI chances with Bichette and Horwitz setting the table. Even though he leans to Tampa on the moneyline, Boston views Vlad’s prop as insulated from game result and expects at least a two-stat night in a lower-scoring environment.

Guy Boston leaned toward multiple ways to attack Kyle Hendricks and Randy Vasquez, ultimately highlighting the Padres first-five run line and full-game team total over 4.5. Hendricks is throwing change-ups 32 % of the time, yet San Diego owns a .302 AVG and .522 SLG against that pitch type in 2025. Vasquez’s early-season shine has faded—his xERA has ballooned to 4.87 over his last four starts—so Boston expects a see-saw game that forces the Padres to keep the foot on the gas. With LA’s bullpen sporting a 1.62 HR/9, he prefers betting on San Diego’s offense rather than sweating the full-game side.

Guy Boston plans to fire on the Houston team total over 4.0 runs against Michael Lorenzen. Houston sits top-10 in wRC+ versus four-seamers, sliders, and sinkers— the three pitches that make up 86 % of Lorenzen’s arsenal. The right-hander’s road xFIP is 4.62 and he is walking 10 % of hitters, gifting extra baserunners to an Astros lineup that already boasts a league-best 9.1 % barrel rate. Boston admitted ignorance regarding rookie left-hander Colton Gordon’s debut but noted Kansas City owns a bottom-five wRC+ versus southpaws, making the game total less attractive than simply betting Houston’s offense to do the heavy lifting.

Guy Boston suggested betting the Colorado team total under 3.5 (−105) at Globe Life. Patrick Corbin’s resurgence is backed by a 31 % whiff rate on his slider/sinker combo— the very pitches Colorado ranks bottom-three against in run value. The Rockies have topped three runs just twice in their last nine games and are slashing .211/.281/.337 in that stretch. Boston conceded Corbin’s 1.32 WHIP hints at traffic but trusts Texas’ bullpen (3.38 ERA, fifth-best leverage index) to clean up if necessary. Because Antonio Senzatela offers little strikeout upside, Boston prefers fading Colorado’s bats rather than laying the Rangers run line in what he expects to be a low-scoring affair.

Guy Boston is backing the Cubs −0.5 on the first-five run line despite a juiced price. Jameson Taillon has opened 2025 with a 2.78 ERA and a 23 % K-rate while holding opponents to a .284 xwOBA. On the other side, Ryan Weathers is making his season debut after a forearm issue and is likely capped near 70 pitches. Boston noted Miami’s bullpen owns the worst WPA in baseball and that strong winds blowing in at Wrigley should mitigate Chicago’s own offensive volatility. He also mentioned Weathers’ career 5.43 FIP and below-average slider whiff rate as additional reasons the Cubs should scratch out a 2–3 run cushion by the middle innings.

After getting burned yesterday, Guy Boston is leaning toward the Reds team-total over (look for 4.5 or lower) against Davis Martin. Martin’s four-seam/change/cutter arsenal has produced a 6.48 xERA in limited action, and the Reds remain a top-10 group versus cutters. A warm 75-degree afternoon in Cincinnati offsets wind blowing in, and Boston believes Nick Lodolo’s own volatility turns this into a back-and-forth affair where the Reds must hang a crooked number to win. He will wait for books to open but expects to fire if the TT posts anywhere south of five runs.

Guy Boston is going right back to the well with the Mets first-five run line −0.5 (−134 on ProfitX) versus Bailey Falter. He trusts Clay Holmes’ sinker/slider combo to keep the Pirates quiet, noting Pittsburgh ranks 27th against sliders and sits middle-of-the-pack versus sinkers. Cooler, damp Citi Field conditions further depress run scoring for the Bucs, while New York’s offense should scrape together two to three early runs against Falter’s mediocre 18 % K-rate. Boston compared market pricing— most books have the play in the −150s— and said grabbing anything better than −140 is value before a peer-to-peer match disappears.

Guy Boston backed the Yankees moneyline, expecting their offense to rough up Luis Castillo. Castillo’s arsenal is 55 – 60 % four-seamers and sinkers; New York ranks first in MLB in runs-above-average versus the fastball and fourth versus sinkers this season. The heart of the order—Judge, Goldschmidt, Stanton—also rates positively against sliders and changeups, Castillo’s tertiary offerings. New York hitters own 112 prior plate appearances against him and have seen his velocity profile often, which Boston believes shrinks Castillo’s edge. While rookie Will Warren’s season ERA still sits north of four, his last five turns show a 2.20 mark and an eighth-inning appearance versus Oakland, giving Boston confidence the Yankees can at least keep pace on the mound. He leans to the full-game over but the actionable play is Yankees ML, banking on their pitch-mix matchup and a bounce-back spot after yesterday’s quiet bats.

Guy Boston endorsed Arizona at plus money and their team-total over 3.5 runs against San Francisco. Eduardo Rodriguez is expected to lean on his four-seam/change combo for roughly 65 % of his pitches, and the Giants rank dead last in runs-above-average versus the fastball over the last 30 days— only Heliot Ramos grades out positive. On the flip side, Jordan Hicks relies on a sinker/slider mix (slider 32 %), and every projected Diamondbacks hitter grades positive against sliders. Boston concedes the Giants’ bullpen owns the league’s best ERA, but trusts Arizona’s lineup to build an early cushion and likes the full-game number because he is not fully willing to stake everything on Rodriguez in a first-five bet. He sees value as long as the moneyline stays near even money and expects four or more D-back runs regardless of how their volatile bullpen finishes.

Guy Boston recommended Cleveland at roughly −130 at home versus Milwaukee. Rookie Logan Henderson looked sharp in his debut against the A’s (6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) but Boston cautioned that could be debut adrenaline against a weak lineup. Cleveland counters with Gavin Williams, who owns solid ground-ball numbers and has limited the Brewers to a sub-.330 expected wOBA across the few plate appearances he’s seen. Boston argued the Guardians hold clear edges in lineup depth and bullpen reliability; Milwaukee’s bats rank near the bottom third in hard-hit rate. With a better offense, a trustworthy pen and Henderson’s small-sample risk, Boston sees value on the Guardians moneyline and would sprinkle their team total over if the number opens modest.

Guy Boston targeted a Philadelphia team-total over and a Cardinals team-total under in Game 1 of their double-header. He noted the Phillies crush right-handed pitching (top-5 in MLB wOBA versus RHP) and get a favorable matchup with Eric Fedde, whose road ERA is north of 5.00. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo brings a plus changeup/slider mix that historically stifles St. Louis, a club that sits bottom-10 against lefties. Because double-headers add bullpen uncertainty, Boston prefers isolating the splits via team totals and would also consider Phillies first-five run line behind Luzardo’s left arm. In short, he expects Philadelphia to score early and often while the Cardinals struggle to scratch out runs.

Guy Boston said he would lean to both the Orioles moneyline and the full-game over 9 runs in the opener of Wednesday’s double-header with Minnesota. He pointed to Baltimore’s pronounced platoon advantage— the O’s post a far better wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, whereas the Twins are noticeably weaker in that split. Dean Kremer has been "serviceable" at Camden Yards, giving Baltimore a steady arm, while the Orioles lineup gets to attack another right-hander in Bailey Ober. Weather looks hitter-friendly with temps near 70, a light breeze and only a 21 % rain chance. Boston projected something like a 5-4 final and acknowledged the volatility of double-headers, but still felt the offensive edge and mild conditions made Baltimore plus the over the side worth considering.

Guy Boston recommended taking Abraham Toro under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at +140 against Tarik Skubal. Boston joked that bettors are ‘owed’ after Toro ruined a previous under with a garbage-time homer, but the handicap is more than narrative: Toro is a part-time switch-hitter who owns a sub-.280 wOBA from the right side and strikes out 28 % of the time versus high-velocity lefties. Skubal’s fastball/change combo is carving up right-handed bats (35 % K, .189 xBA) and Detroit’s pen has three lefty relievers waiting if Toro sees a second plate appearance late. With Toro projected to hit eighth and rarely steal, Boston sees limited pathways for multiple counting stats and is comfortable firing a half-unit at plus money.

Guy Boston recommended betting Jordan Hicks to allow more than 4.5 hits tonight. Hicks has surrendered at least five knocks in six of eight starts (5.75 average hits), and each time he has gone over he has given up six or more. The last time he faced Arizona (last season) he was tagged for six hits. Arizona’s projected order profiles well against his 32 % slider usage— every hitter grades positive against sliders on Boston’s dashboard— while Hicks’ sinker does little to neutralize them. Provided San Francisco lets him work a typical workload, Boston expects the D-backs to put at least five balls in play safely.

Guy Boston played Bobby Witt over 1.5 total bases at –130 on FanDuel for the late game in Houston. Witt has topped this mark in 6 of his last 10 outings with 2.7 TB per game and owns a 57% season hit rate (25 of 44). The head-to-head record is even better: 8-for-12 (67%) against the Astros dating back to last year, including 4-of-5 in 2025. Witt’s .319 overall average climbs to .393 against left-handed pitchers with a .440 BABIP and 45.5% extra-base-hit rate. He will see rookie southpaw Colton Gordon, who has yet to throw a major-league inning, giving the Royals’ leadoff man a significant experience and form edge. Boston called the –130 price “pretty solid value” for a hitter sporting elite splits versus lefties and a strong history against Houston.

Guy Boston played Lourdes Gurriel over 0.5 strikeouts at -145 on DraftKings for the afternoon in San Francisco. Recent form is driving the pick: Gurriel has struck out in 8 of his last 10 games (1.0 K per game) and in 5 of his last 6 road contests. Against the Giants he has an 8-for-11 hit rate to this over (73%), cashing in seven of the last eight meetings and both encounters this season. Even in a tiny head-to-head sample (two plate appearances) Gurriel has fanned twice versus today’s starter Jordan Hicks, who owns a 22% K-rate against right-handed hitters. Gurriel’s own strikeout rate versus righties sits at 14.3% but his batting average plummets to .207 in the split, adding more swing-and-miss risk. With a friendly price and multiple corroborating trends from Outlier, Boston expects at least one K for the Arizona outfielder.

Guy Boston doubled down on Juan Soto over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –130, adding a slate of lefty-lefty data to explain why he is giving the Mets star one more shot. Soto has cleared this number in 27 of 43 games (63%) with a 2.12 HRR average, and he is 3-for-3 versus the Pirates this year while averaging 1.75 HRR over the last four meetings. The specific draw tonight is southpaw Bailey Falter. Soto owns a .353 batting average and 185 WRC+ against left-handed pitching this season compared to .255 and 140 overall. Falter’s own splits explode against lefty bats: ERA nearly doubles, batting average allowed jumps from .232 to .351, homers per nine rise from 1.2 to 2.1, and wOBA balloons from .303 to .409. Soto is already 6-for-16 (.375) lifetime off Falter, giving Boston enough converging signals to label the –130 price “phenomenal value.”

Guy Boston went back to the well with Juan Soto, taking over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at -130 on BetMGM against the Pirates. Soto has eclipsed this number in 7 of his last 10 contests, averaging 2.2 HRR during that stretch, and sports a 63% season hit rate (27 of 43 games, 2.12 HRR average). Although Soto started slowly, those numbers mirror his 2024 success on this prop. Boston admitted he is 0-3 betting Soto this year but trusts the steady uptick in production and the favorable price to finally convert, especially with the Mets lineup clicking around him.

Guy Boston recommended Travis Jankowski to record at least one strikeout (-145 DraftKings). The Rays outfielder has fanned in 7 of his last 10 games and in six of the last seven, averaging 0.8 Ks over that span. Season-long, he has exceeded the mark in 9 of 16 appearances (56%). The underlying matchup looks even better: Jankowski owns a 23.8% strikeout rate overall that bumps to 24.3% against right-handed pitching, while Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt strikes out 26% of the left-handed hitters he faces. Boston trusts those converging K-rates, along with last night’s strikeout versus Toronto, to push the over again.