JDBetsHQ backed Miami +1.5 runs at +145 against San Diego, arguing the Padres’ offense is in free-fall while the Marlins continue to trend up across his spreadsheet. San Diego ranks dead last in MLB in runs scored and has managed just two runs per game over the last 10—worse than the Rockies, White Sox, and Pirates. The Padres are also 24th in strikeout rate, a sign they are putting balls in play but with no impact. Rookie Steven Kolek opened his career with two five-inning shutouts but has since allowed five earned to Seattle and three to Toronto, suggesting regression is underway. Conversely, Max Meyer has been rocked once in his last five but shows consistent improvement and recently posted a quality start versus the Cubs. With Miami posting green cells in runs, hits, and RBIs while San Diego sits red across the board, JDBetsHQ trusts the Marlins to keep it within a run—or win outright—and considers the +1.5 cushion a premium price given the current form of both clubs.

JDBetsHQ pounded the game total OVER 7.5, pointing to two hittable starters and elite Cubs bats. German Marquez faces a Chicago lineup littered with 1.000 OPS cells on the tout’s spreadsheet; Dansby Swanson (5-for-7, HR) and Jake Burger (5-for-10, HR) both slug above .900 in their limited histories. Marquez has improved in two straight outings yet still gives up 1.3 HR/9 and a 44 % hard-hit rate. On the other side rookie Cade Horton has just three MLB appearances (5.15 ERA) and recently served up three earned to the White Sox. Colorado is merely average, but they sit top-10 in doubles and strikeout the third-fewest in the league, which should keep traffic on the bases. With wind neutral, JDBetsHQ sees both clubs reaching four runs more often than not and calls 7.5 "way too low."

JDBetsHQ recommended betting the over 8.5 runs in Braves-Phillies. Both offenses are top-five across most hitting categories right now, with Philadelphia "cooking" and Atlanta’s lineup still loaded. Spencer Strider makes only his second start since returning from the IL—he surrendered four earned runs on five-plus hits to Washington in his first outing—so he may not be in peak form. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, has historically struggled with the Braves; Ozzie Albies has already taken him deep three times in 20 at-bats. Add in a mild six-mph breeze blowing out and two lineups that can post crooked numbers quickly, and JDBetsHQ expects a high-scoring affair that clears the 8.5 total.

JDBetsHQ played Arizona –0.5 on the first-five run line at roughly –166 instead of laying the full –240 moneyline. He highlighted the wide gap between the offenses: Arizona ranks top-10 in every run-creation metric on his sheet, while Pittsburgh sits 29th in runs, 28th in RBIs, and bottom-five in hits and homers. Rookie Mike Burrows has made one MLB start for the Pirates, coughing up 4 ER on 4 hits in five innings, whereas Arizona’s starter—tagged only as "Corbin" on the stream—has gone under 1.5 earned runs in four of his last five, posting a 1.00 ERA during that stretch. Because the Diamondbacks are at home, they bat in the bottom half of each early frame, giving them a natural push edge. JDBetsHQ expects the Snakes’ bats to jump Burrows quickly and trusts their arm to keep a punch-less Pirate order quiet long enough to cash the half-run lead by the start of the sixth.

JDBetsHQ backed the Reds at +105, citing a glaring pitching mismatch. Kansas City is treating the night as a bullpen day with Daniel Lynch expected to open; Lynch has averaged barely an inning per appearance (23 IP over 22 games) and carries a 1.57 WHIP with more walks (12) than strikeouts (12) in that span. The Royals already rank 30th in walk rate and strand an alarming number of runners, making any deficit hard to erase. Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, who knows the KC lineup inside-and-out from his years with the organization. Singer’s prop lines show 1.5 walks but no earned-run market, indicating books respect his command. JDBetsHQ notes that the Reds own a top-10 OPS while the Royals remain bottom-five in runs per game, so even average work from Singer should cash the plus-money moneyline.

JDBetsHQ grabbed Chicago +1.5 runs at +105, trusting his model that shows the White Sox quietly stacking offensive advantages despite their record. New York rolls out Tylor McGill, who has allowed 4.4 earned runs on average over his last four outings and has cashed the OVER on 2.5 earned runs in 80 % of starts this season. Jonathan Cannon, while no ace, has surrendered fewer than three earned runs in 60 % of his appearances and is giving up just 4.0 hits per start. Sheet logos were overwhelmingly in favor of Chicago hitters, and the Mets’ lineup owns only three positive historical matchups. With Cannon’s contact suppression and McGill in a rough stretch, JDBetsHQ thinks one run of insurance is plenty against a Mets club that needed late-game luck to win yesterday.

JDBetsHQ backed Nathan Eovaldi to stay under 2.5 earned runs against Toronto. The tout noted Eovaldi has allowed only three earned runs over his last five outings (0.6 ER per start) and just ten across his last ten (1.0 ER). Toronto’s lineup remains the league’s toughest to strike out at 6.4 K per game, but JDBetsHQ is fading offense, not chasing punch-outs. He acknowledged that the Jays tagged Eovaldi for seven earned in a start last season, yet pointed out the veteran added a slider this spring and is commanding it far better—reflected in a 29% hard-hit rate versus 37% last year. With the Rangers’ bats currently 27th in runs and 30th in hits, the analyst expects a low-scoring pace overall and is comfortable trusting recent form over stale historical splits.

While passing on an official parlay, JD Bets leaned toward the Angels moneyline at –165. Los Angeles rides an eight-game winning streak and an 8-2 record over its last ten, whereas Miami has dropped three straight despite a recent uptick in hits. JD noted that bettors are effectively backing the hottest offense on the Saturday slate against a Marlins club still struggling to convert contact into wins. With momentum squarely on the Halos’ side and no significant weather or bullpen concerns, he said the Angels are the clear side for anyone comfortable laying the moderate juice.

JD Bets pounded Jose Soriano UNDER 5.5 strikeouts for Saturday’s start against Miami. Soriano has topped six punch-outs just once in his last ten turns, averaging 4.6 over that span and 4.8 in his most recent five. The Marlins’ lineup simply doesn’t whiff enough to bail him out—Miami is fifth-best in strikeout rate and has fanned only 7.2 times per game across the last ten. JD argued that expecting Soriano to suddenly reach six Ks in this contact-heavy matchup is unrealistic, especially since his 4A stuff profile rarely generates double-digit whiff totals. With the books still hanging 5.5, he called the under a “winner” and made it an official play.

JD Bets laid –104 on the Dodgers, calling the price "silly" given the matchup. The Mets rank dead last in runs, average, hits, and RBIs, scoring just 2.4 per game over the past week. David Peterson draws the start and LA’s lineup owns him: six career homers and a collective .457 wOBA, with Freddie Freeman 7-for-18 with two bombs. Peterson’s 1.6 HR/9 and 4.8 ERA this season reinforce the fade. Tony Gonsolin wasn’t as bad as the box score (4 ER on 4 hits) his last time out and still sports a 1.11 WHIP. With the Dodgers riding a three-game heater and still top-10 in every offensive metric, JD played LA up to –120 on the moneyline.

JD Bets backed Luis L. Ortiz to eclipse 4.5 Ks in Detroit. Ortiz has quietly become a punch-out machine, averaging 6.6 strikeouts over his last five appearances and hitting nine once this season. The Tigers own the league’s 23rd-highest strikeout rate, whiffing 8.8 times per game—almost exactly one per inning—while their offense has cratered during a three-game skid. JD added that Ortiz’s slider usage is up 8% in June and the pitch carries a 41% whiff rate. With Casey Mize opposite him, JD expects a competitive game that lets Cleveland’s right-hander work into the sixth. He played OVER 4.5 Ks at –120 and would follow the number up to 5.0 flat.

JD Bets fired on the full-game OVER 9.5 runs in Blue Jays–Rays. He thinks both starters are ticking time-bombs. Shane Baz has coughed up 3-plus earned in four of his last five and sports a 4.92 ERA with a 10.4% walk rate. Toronto ranks 10th in both runs and RBIs, and several Jays own loud histories off Baz – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 4-for-10 while Bo Bichette and Daulton Varsho have each taken him deep. On the flip side, Tampa’s lineup owns Berrios: Randy Arozarena is 3-for-10 with three homers and Yandy Diaz is hitting .353 lifetime. Berrios’ fastball velo is down a tick this month, and the Rays have plated 5.1 runs per game during their current three-game win streak. JD noted the Trop’s roof could be closed thanks to the routine 3 p.m. Tampa storm, eliminating any wind that might suppress offense. With two shaky arms, two top-10 offenses, and a betting total still under double-digits, JD insisted the correct play is OVER 9.5 (would play to 10).

JD Bets advised taking Jack Leiter under 5.5 strikeouts in Saturday’s start on the South Side. Leiter is averaging only 3.9 Ks across his last ten outings and an even lower 3.4 over the last five, hardly the profile of a six-strikeout arm. The one previous time he faced Chicago he produced just four punch-outs. Meanwhile the White Sox sit 14th in strikeout rate at 7.9 per game, showing far more plate discipline than their reputation suggests. With Texas riding a five-game losing streak, JD expects Bruce Bochy to have a quick hook if Leiter struggles, further capping the inning count. He thinks bettors are simply seeing “White Sox” and assuming free strikeouts, but the data shows otherwise, making the under at 5.5 a clear value play.

JD Bets targeted Max Fried’s hits-allowed prop, taking under 5.5 against Colorado. Fried has not surrendered six hits in any of his last five starts, giving up just 3.6 on average during that stretch. Colorado ranks 20th in hits per game and owns a modest .229 batting average versus left-handers this year. JD emphasized Fried’s 56% ground-ball rate and consistent six-plus-inning workload, noting that even deep outings rarely translate into big hit totals because batters struggle to square him up. With the Rockies’ offense scuffling and books hanging a full 5.5, JD expects Fried to allow four or fewer knocks and cruise under the posted line.

JD Bets advised avoiding the Orioles-Red Sox double header entirely. He cited the usual chaos of twin bills—potential weather delays, bullpen depletion, surprise pinch-hitters, and lineup fatigue—that make props and sides unpredictable. His long-term data shows skipping double headers improves profitability, so the sheet for this game was shared purely for reference with no wagers recommended.

JD Bets backed Mitch Keller to clear 4.5 strikeouts. Keller is averaging 5.6 Ks and has cashed this prop in four of his last five, including an eight-punchout outing in his previous start. Milwaukee ranks 25th in strikeout rate and is fanning more than once per inning on average. Although Brewer bats own a .313 clip with two homers off Keller lifetime, JD trusts the swing-and-miss environment to win out, especially with Pittsburgh willing to let him work deep (110-pitch ceiling this year).

JD Bets played Kyle Harrison over 1.5 earned runs. Harrison is averaging 3.4 ER in 2024 and has allowed at least two in four of five. Washington has been quietly hot—eighth in runs over the last ten, scoring 4.9 per game—so JD thinks the market is under-pricing their offense. He noted that several Nats hitters have success versus Harrison in limited history and questioned why the book hung such a low number, concluding the line is simply wrong.

JD Bets locked in DJ LeMahieu over 0.5 hits despite the steep price. LeMahieu owns a .381 average (8-for-21) in the matchup and ranks first on JD’s hit list for the day. The Yankees’ veteran is barreling the ball at a 41% clip over his last week, and JD expects multiple plate appearances against rookie right-hander Will Warren plus a bottom-10 Rangers bullpen. He compared the wager to Tuesday’s Spencer Steer play—too much juice but an extremely high hit probability—and advised parlay shoppers to treat it as a safe anchor leg.

JD Bets said the minus-190 number on Jake Burger’s over 0.5 hits prop is still worth laying. Burger has a five-game hit streak and has collected knocks in nine of his last ten contests. JD stressed that Burger regularly shows up at the top of his model whenever there is meaningful BvP history and that the market has not adjusted enough for his current 47% hard-hit rate. JD is ignoring the home-run prop—"the HR data looks ugly"—and is simply betting Burger to scratch out one base hit, calling it a high-probability, low-ceiling play that belongs in parlays or bankroll builders.

JD Bets targeted Antonio Senzatela’s hits-allowed prop, taking the over at 6.5 (-120) in Coors Field. Senzatela is averaging a whopping 8.0 hits surrendered across his last five outings, including an eight-hit meltdown versus Texas. The Rockies routinely let him wear it—he has completed at least five innings in four straight starts—giving Philadelphia ample cracks at his pitch-to-contact arsenal. The Phillies rank top-10 in hits, batting average, OBP and slugging, and the heart of their order owns gaudy BvP numbers: Bryce Harper 2 HR on a .385 average, J.T. Realmuto .262, and Trea Turner .417. JD expects Philly to string together singles and doubles rather than rely on long balls, forecasting a scenario where Senzatela coughs up seven knocks by the fifth inning. He labeled the play a "fade Senzatela" staple that should close closer to 7.5 by first pitch.

JD Bets warned listeners to leave Tarik Skubal’s strike-out market alone on Tuesday. Books are dangling 6.5 Ks at +130 and even a 7-plus ladder at +140, but JD pointed out that St. Louis owns one of the lowest team strike-out rates in baseball—only three projected hitters whiff above 30%. He walked through Skubal’s recent game log, noting that his ceiling performances came against the Angels and Red Sox, two top-five K clubs, while he managed just five punch-outs versus a low-K Royals squad. JD’s spreadsheet shows several Cardinals right-handers with strong career numbers against Skubal, making the margin razor thin. With Detroit laying –180 and a modest 7.5 total, JD concluded the line is “low for a reason” and advised bettors to skip the prop rather than force action.

JD Bets took Logan Henderson to record six or more strikeouts against Baltimore. Henderson fanned 9 and 7 hitters in his last two outings and carries a 31% whiff rate on the season. Baltimore strikes out nine times per game (21st in MLB) and owns a bottom-five contact rate against right-handed four-seamers—the pitch Henderson throws 48% of the time. JD dismissed the small-sample concern by noting that one of Henderson’s recent K explosions came against Cleveland, a team even harder to strike out than the Orioles. With Keegan Akin opening a bullpen game on the other side, JD expects Henderson to pitch with a lead and work at least six innings, giving him ample chances to clear 5.5 Ks.

JD Bets flagged Pete Alonso as a prime Dinger Tuesday target if Walker Buehler indeed takes the hill for Boston. In the small but telling sample, Alonso owns 4 homers and 8 RBI in just 14 career at-bats against Buehler, translating to a .286 average with a ridiculous .857 slugging percentage. JD called it a personal "vendetta" matchup and noted that right-handed Mets hitters in general have fared well against Buehler’s fastball/slider combo when he has been less than fully stretched out. Although current boards were temporarily missing standard HR lines, JD said he will add Alonso the moment markets reopen, preferring the straight home-run prop but willing to consider a Runs+RBI combo if pricing dictates.

JD Bets said to attack Mitchell Parker’s 2.5-earned-run prop, citing multiple red flags. Parker has been shelled for 6, 5, 4 and 4 earned runs in his last four outings and now draws an Atlanta lineup that sits sixth in hits, 11th in runs scored and fourth in walks. JD emphasized that this will be Parker’s second start against the Braves in less than two weeks, a situation that historically favors hitters because they have fresh looks at his release and pitch mix. With Spencer Strider returning from the IL on the other side, JD expects Atlanta to be aggressive early, force Parker into long counts, and plate at least three runs before the bullpen door opens. He wants the over 2.5 ER rather than a full game moneyline to isolate Parker’s vulnerability.

JD Bets advised taking Spencer Steer over 0.5 hits on Tuesday against Pittsburgh. His reasoning was three-fold: (1) Steer owns a nine-game hitting streak and is 5-for-14 with a homer lifetime off Bailey Falter, giving him a .357 average in the matchup. (2) Cincinnati’s offense is hot, riding a five-game win streak, while the Pirates bats have cratered, so Steer should see plenty of plate appearances in a favorable run-scoring environment. (3) Falter has allowed at least one base hit to 23 of the last 27 right-handed hitters he’s faced and carries a 1.30 WHIP on the year, even though his recent ERA looks tidy. JD Bets noted he is not chasing a home-run prop here—just one base knock—calling it the “common-sense, statistical outlier” on the board.

JD Bets grabbed St. Louis first-five moneyline (-110). The Cardinals are 9-1 their last ten and on a three-game streak, while KC has dropped four straight. Matthew Liberatore has not allowed 3 earned runs in any of his last six starts, averaging 1.6 over the last five. Kansas City, meanwhile, sits 27th in runs per game (just 3.0 over their last ten) and has only two homers versus lefties all season. Offensively the Cards have crushed Michael Wacha historically—Nolan Arenado is 6-for-11 with three homers—so JD wants exposure before bullpens enter. He considered Liberatore under 2.5 earned but chose the first-five ML for cleaner value and to "avoid freaky bullpen stuff."

JD Bets locked in the Houston Astros moneyline for Sunday’s series finale in Arlington. He noted that Houston’s offense still "statistically better with the bats" over its rolling 10-game sample, while Texas continues to scuffle in batting average, hits and doubles, relying on walks to generate runs. On the mound the Astros hold a modest edge: Framber Valdez has averaged 2.3 earned runs over his last five starts and cleared 2+ earned runs in only two of those, whereas rookie Jack Leiter sits at 2.6 earned runs and faces MLB’s 8th-best lineup at drawing walks. Valdez’s own walk prop (1.5) was passed on because it offered no margin for error, but JD sees the matchup advantages as strong enough to back Houston straight up. He also cited the Astros’ motivation after losing Saturday, and the controlled indoor environment at Globe Life Field that removes weather volatility. All told, he sees Houston as the superior side both at the plate and on the bump and is riding the Astros moneyline.

JD Bets played Tony Gonsolin OVER 5.5 strikeouts against the Angels. He noted Gonsolin’s 2025 game log of 9-8-4 punch-outs in three starts and emphasized that Los Angeles (AL) has been a strikeout gold mine, averaging 10.8 Ks per game over its last 10 and ranking 30th in MLB in that span. On his spreadsheet the Dodgers sit a modest 7th in strikeouts, but the Angels occupy the basement, giving Gonsolin a ceiling matchup. Although historical head-to-heads are limited "just a bunch of zeros," JD trusts current form—Gonsolin’s four-seamer is up two ticks and he is missing bats at a career-high 29% whiff rate. He rejected the –220 Dodgers moneyline as too chalky and instead locked in the K prop, projecting six to seven strikeouts in a pitcher-friendly dome that removes weather volatility.

JD Bets played Jeffrey Springs OVER 1.5 walks against the Giants. He pointed out that San Francisco sits 5th in MLB at 3.7 bases-on-balls per game and routinely works deep counts. Springs has been a bit wild in 2025, averaging 2.3 walks per start and going 2-2-1-2 in his last four outings. His season-long BB/9 is 3.3, well above the 1.5 line, and one rogue four-walk start shows how quickly he can lose the zone. JD noted that Verlander’s Jekyll-and-Hyde form makes the side impossible to trust, so he is isolating the prop market, banking on the Giants’ plate discipline to push Springs past two free passes.

JD Bets advised taking Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-160) on Paul Skenes when the rookie faces Philadelphia on Sunday. Skenes has surrendered an average of exactly 5.0 hits across his last five appearances and has cleared this number in four of those outings. JD stressed that Skenes "is not the strikeout dude everybody thinks he is right now"—he has cashed his 6.5 K prop only once in his last five—and that the contact-oriented Phillies rank 9th in fewest strikeouts per game, meaning more balls in play. Citizens Bank Park will feature 17-mph winds and 70-degree temps, further aiding offense. Given Skenes’ recent hit profile, the Phillies’ low-whiff lineup, and the juicy –160 price, JD prefers fading Skenes via the hits market rather than chasing his strikeout prop.

JD Bets grabbed San Diego at -150. The Mariners are an ice-cold 3-7 over their last ten and rank bottom-five in runs in that span. Meanwhile the Padres’ bats have been "great" by JD’s sheet. On the bump, San Diego sends Stephen Kolek, who has yet to allow an earned run through two big-league appearances and even logged a 20-out complete-game shutout in Triple-A earlier this year. Seattle counters with rookie Logan Evans, who has coughed up 12 hits and seven runs (six earned) in just ten innings against Texas and Miami. With the starting pitching edge, better offense, and home field, JD sees no reason to complicate things and simply plays the Padres money line.

JD Bets laid the -175 money line with Texas. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed just 4 earned runs total in his last five starts (0.8 per outing) while striking out hitters at a clip that scares him off any Houston props. Opposite him, Lance McCullers got tattooed for seven runs by the Reds in his most recent turn and has yet to rediscover his command. Texas enters on a six-game winning streak, a trend JD refuses to ignore because "streaks matter in baseball." He did acknowledge Jose Altuve’s ridiculous BvP (7 HR in 24 AB) versus Eovaldi but trusts the right-hander’s current form far more than historical small samples. Add home field and the Rangers’ pen advantage, and JD says stick with Texas.

JD Bets backed Logan Webb to clear his 5.5-strikeout prop against the Athletics. Webb has averaged 7.2 strikeouts per start this season and 7.8 over his last five, punching out at least six hitters in four of those outings. While Oakland ranks a respectable 11th in strikeout rate (8.17 per game), JD pointed out they still fanned six times in five innings versus Webb’s pitch-to-contact peers and nine against Minnesota last week—evidence their newfound discipline is shaky. Wind at Oracle Park will be blowing straight out at 13 mph in 59-degree air, a setup that often keeps Webb on the mound longer because runs are harder to come by. Pair that with his consistent six-inning workload and JD projects the right-hander to rack up 6–7 Ks, comfortably beating the 5.5 line.

JD Bets liked Tylor Megill to beat his 5.5-strikeout prop in the Subway Series. Megill is averaging 6.5 Ks per start on the season and 7.0 over his last five, showing an uptick in both whiff rate and slider usage. The Yankees, meanwhile, punch out 8.8 times per game over their last ten (9.1 on the season), the sixth-worst mark in MLB during that stretch. JD dismissed Carlos Rodon’s number because the Mets rarely fan (7.8 per game), settling on Megill as the only angle. He admitted it "might be a little sweaty," but believes the right-hander’s recent form and New York’s strike-happy lineup give him a clear path to the six strikeouts needed to cash.

JD Bets took MacKenzie Gore to clear his 6.5-strikeout prop against Baltimore. Gore has morphed into a “strikeout machine,” averaging 8.3 Ks per start on the season and 8.6 over his last five. He already fanned eight Orioles in their previous meeting this year, and Baltimore currently sits 22nd in strikeout rate (10.4 per game over the last 10). The line opened at 6.5 with modest juice, offering a full K of cushion versus Gore’s recent baseline. JD acknowledged a 70-plus percent chance of rain in the first inning, but noted the worst storms are projected before or right at first pitch, meaning a pre-game delay would actually protect the bet from an in-game shutdown that could knock Gore out early. Weather risk acknowledged, he still likes the over given the matchup and Gore’s form.

Calling it "an automatic play," JD Bets hammered the over 9.5 in Friday’s Athletics-Dodgers matchup. He highlighted that both projected starters carry bloated ratios: Oakland’s Osvaldo Bido is 2-3 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, while Los Angeles counters with Dustin May, 1-3, 4.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP. Each offense is scorching—both rank top-5 in runs and ISO over the past two weeks—and the wind has been blowing out at Dodger Stadium for two straight nights, pushing the previous two games over their totals. With mediocre pitching, red-hot lineups, and a hitter-friendly weather setup, JD does not see how this game stays below double-digit runs and is comfortable playing the over up to 10.

JD Bets targeted the game total, calling the over 8 runs a strong play. Zach Littell (4.40 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (3.97 ERA) have combined for more than 8.0 earned runs per nine this season, yet bookmakers opened the total at only eight. Toronto owns a top-5 offense and Tampa’s bats have begun to heat up after a slow April. With two hittable starters, an improving Rays lineup, and the Blue Jays’ power in their hitter-friendly park, JD expects plenty of scoring and repeated, ‘Over eight. Over eight.’

JD Bets laid out why he is backing the Astros straight-up in Thursday’s opener at Globe Life Field. His spreadsheet shows Houston holding clear statistical advantages on both sides of the ball: the Astros own the higher wRC+ and OPS, while Hunter Brown sports eye-popping pitching numbers (6-1 record, 1.48 ERA, 58 strikeouts, 0.90 WHIP). By comparison, Jacob deGrom’s 3.12 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are strong, yet still trail Brown’s start, and JD noted Texas’ offensive metrics are slightly inflated after a cushy mid-week set in hitter-friendly Coors Field. With the better arm, deeper lineup, and only the road venue working against them, he locked in Houston at even money, passing on the +1.5 run line because he expects them to win outright rather than simply keep it close.