Just A Bet Outside took Michael Wacha under 17.5 outs recorded (essentially under six full innings) at -120 for a half-unit. Wacha has stayed below this number in 10 of 18 starts and is clearly fading: 12 earned runs, 21 hits and seven walks over his last 15 innings. He has allowed eight or more hits in three of his past five outings, pushing his WHIP skyward. The spot worsens against the Mets, who lead MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance and forced eight of the previous 10 right-handed starters to fall short of 18 outs (ignoring an odd double-header blip). Kansas City’s bullpen is fully rested after yesterday’s day off and with the All-Star break looming, the tout does not expect the 34-year-old Wacha to get any leash once he runs into traffic.

Just A Bet Outside paired Colt Keith’s 1-plus hit with Chourio in the same parlay and broke down why the rookie leadoff man should oblige. Keith has moved to the top of the Detroit order, giving him four or even five plate appearances nightly, and he is tearing the cover off the ball in July with a .464 average. The left-handed hitter owns a .290 average, .495 slugging percentage and 143 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching and now draws Luis Castillo on the road. Castillo’s splits are night-and-day: opponents hit .302 with a 4.67 ERA against him away from T-Mobile Park compared to a .184 mark at home. Castillo also sports a 5.29 xFIP versus lefties. Given Keith’s red-hot form and the friendlier hitting environment, the tout expects at least one knock from the rookie.

Just A Bet Outside played Jackson Chourio for 1-plus hit in a two-leg parlay, citing a perfect storm of matchup and recent form. Chourio owns a .356 batting average against left-handed pitching this season and has logged at least one hit in 18 of his last 20 games started by a southpaw (24-for-27 overall versus lefty starters on the year). He is hitting .324 in July and now faces Mitchell Parker, one of the league’s most hittable starters right now with six-plus hits allowed in five straight outings and a 4.88 xFIP to righties. Parker has surrendered 20 earned runs in his last 37.1 innings and hands the ball to a bottom-tier Nationals bullpen once he exits. Even with only four prior plate appearances versus Parker, Chourio is 2-for-4, and the tout expects him to stay hot and cash the hit leg.

Just A Bet Outside leaned to the over on Logan Webb’s strikeout prop despite the marquee opponent. The Dodgers surprisingly rank fourth in K-rate versus right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (24.1 %). Webb has punched out six or more hitters in seven of his last eight outings and sports a 30.1 % K-rate against right-handed bats, which make up the heart of L.A.’s order. His year-long strikeout count sits at 133 in 120.1 innings. With little home/road split (26.4 % K at Oracle vs 28.0 % away) and the Dodgers currently pressing at the plate, the tout expects 6–7 Ks, making an over 5.5 ticket attractive.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting Joe Ryan’s strikeout over versus Pittsburgh. The Pirates own the third-highest K-rate against right-handers during the last three weeks (24.2 %). Ryan has been nails in Minneapolis, carrying a massive 33.9 % strike-out rate at home compared to 23 % on the road. He has recorded 6-plus Ks in five of his past six starts and sits at 116 strikeouts through 104.1 innings overall. With Ryan’s slider/four-seam combo playing up in Target Field and the Bucs striking out a quarter of the time, the tout projects another 7–8 punchouts, easily clearing most posted numbers around 5.5 or 6.5.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is a strong over play on his strikeout prop tonight against Colorado. The Rockies have the single-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (27.9%). Burns has already piled up 15 strikeouts in just 10 big-league innings, logging outings of 8 and 7 Ks when he’s made it out of the first. His own splits back the matchup: a 33.3 % K-rate versus right-handed bats compared to 28.6 % versus lefties. Even if Cincinnati limits him to roughly 80–90 pitches, four or five innings should still be enough to clear a 5.5-or-lower line against this whiff-happy lineup.

Just A Bet Outside also likes Corey Seager for a 1-plus-hit prop against Kyle Hendricks. Seager has a hit in nine of his last ten games and multiple knocks in back-to-back contests. He has hit safely in eight of his last ten road games, is slashing .272 versus right-handed pitching (compared to .203 vs lefties), and is heating up with a .304 average so far in July after a frigid June. Hendricks owns a sub-15% strikeout rate and relies on pitch-to-contact, which plays into Seager’s line-drive approach. The shortstop is 3-for-9 lifetime off Hendricks, and the host expects Texas’ No. 2 hitter to see four to five plate appearances. If the two-leg parlay price is too steep, Seager can be paired with another hitter or played as a standalone hit prop.

Looking for a leg in his potential hit parlay, the host singled out Luis Arraez to record at least one hit versus Brandon Fott. Arraez has a hit in eight of his last ten games and multiple knocks in three of his last five. He is batting .321 at LoanDepot Park and .320 against right-handed pitching. The matchup is ideal: Arraez is an absurd 10-for-16 lifetime off Fott, and the right-hander owns a 5.00+ ERA with persistent hard-contact issues. Just A Bet Outside noted that the plus-contact lefty profile of Arraez has given Fott fits, making the 1+ hit prop—or using Arraez in a two-leg hit parlay—an attractive betting angle once books hang workable odds.

The host grabbed St. Louis at –110 in a pick-’em and explained the edge. MacKenzie Gore’s career line against the Cards is brutal—29 hits and 20 earned runs in only 21 innings (8.57 ERA). Even in Gore’s breakout 2024 campaign St. Louis tagged him for four earned in five innings on May 11th, and Willson Contreras plus Masyn Winn are a combined 11-for-21 off him. Andre Pallante counters for the Cardinals and is uniquely suited for Washington’s left-heavy order, holding lefties to a .214 average overall and a .195 average/.286 slugging at Busch Stadium thanks to a sinker/slider mix that bores in on southpaws. St. Louis owns a 27-17 home record while Washington is 19-26 on the road, and the bullpen matchup tilts heavily toward the Cards—Washington ranks bottom-five in reliever ERA. With home-field, bullpen and matchup advantages, Just A Bet Outside made the Cards moneyline a half-unit play.

Just A Bet Outside laid out why he is playing Chicago’s team-total Over 4.5 runs at –115. Rookie right-hander David Festa has been feast-or-famine and owns ugly splits against righties: .267 average, .465 slugging, five of seven homers allowed and a 1.71 WHIP at Target Field. His home K-rate sits at just 20% with a 9.4% walk rate, giving Chicago plenty of base-runner upside. The host also expects a motivated lineup after the Cubs scored only one run Tuesday; in their previous three games immediately following a one-run or zero-run performance they bounced back with 11, 5 and 7 runs. Over their last 10 contests versus right-handed pitching Chicago has cleared 4.5 in eight games, averaging roughly seven runs. Minnesota’s bullpen is missing high-leverage arm Griffin Jax after a 20-pitch outing, and the Cubs are guaranteed nine offensive innings on the road. All of that makes the team-total Over a half-unit wager for him.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Chris Bubich as a viable over on his strikeout prop when he faces Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the third-highest K-rate against southpaws over the past three weeks (27.2%). Bubich has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last seven outings and owns a 26.2% strike-out rate at Kauffman Stadium. His punch-out percentage climbs to 26.6% versus right-handed hitters, valuable because the Pirates line-up skews right-handed. Although Bubich’s recent form has dipped slightly, the matchup and underlying K-rate still make the over worth a look in betting markets and for DFS pitcher pools.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Jesus Luzardo as a strong K-prop candidate against San Francisco. The Giants own the league’s highest strike-out rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (29%). Luzardo has struck out 115 hitters in 97.1 innings this season and has flashed ceiling games of 10, 7, and 7 Ks in three of his last five starts. The host conceded Luzardo managed only 4 Ks in a previous April meeting with the Giants, but noted Luzardo’s 28% road K-rate and massive 40.9% strike-out rate against lefty bats. The suggestion was to play Luzardo’s strikeout over and consider him for DFS tournaments that reward punch-outs.

Just A Bet Outside said Wednesday’s matchup is a "holy advantage" for San Diego because Brandon Fott is, in his words, "flat-out not good." He pointed to several individual batter histories that underline how hittable Fott has been: Jake Cronenworth is 7-for-16 off him and Yandy Diaz is 4-for-7, while even Fernando Tatis Jr. has 16 career plate appearances. The host added that Fott’s opponent, Dylan Cease, has allowed 3+ earned runs in seven of his last nine, but still grades out better than Fott, making the Padres the clear side to back. The takeaway was to fade Fott with Padres moneyline or team-total bets and to build DFS stacks around San Diego hitters.

Just A Bet Outside doubled down on fading the Angels’ offense Monday and said bettors can safely move past the standard 6.5 and attack an alternate team-total under 5.5 runs. His confidence rests on Jacob deGrom’s flawless track record: opponents have finished with six or fewer runs in all 17 of deGrom’s starts this season. The right-hander is now working deeper into games, which minimizes exposure to Texas’ bullpen that has quietly improved over the past month. The host added that Los Angeles has cashed the under 6.5 in 30 of 40 home dates, underscoring its vulnerability in a power-sapping Angel Stadium. With deGrom’s 29.2% whiff rate against left-handed bats and the Rangers’ relief corps posting a 3.11 ERA since mid-June, he believes the stricter 5.5 total still offers plus-EV value for straight bets or as one leg of an alt-line SGP.

Just A Bet Outside hammered the Royals’ team-total under 4.5 runs at –118. He ran through an avalanche of data showing why Kansas City simply does not hit at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have stayed under 4.5 runs in 38 of 44 home games (86%) and in nine of their last ten at home they are averaging just 2.1 runs. In eight home games against a left-handed starter they are 8-for-8 to the under, posting a microscopic 1.75 runs per game. Monday’s lefty is Andrew Heaney, who has held right-handed bats to a .220 average, .392 slug and .301 wOBA while allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his last ten outings. Heaney’s blow-ups have come against elite offenses (five ER at Arizona, seven ER at Milwaukee), a tier the host does not put KC in. Even if Heaney only gives Pittsburgh five solid innings, the Pirates’ bullpen has been lights-out—No. 1 in ERA over the last 30 days at 1.99 with a still-solid 4.00 xFIP. With a lefty that profiles well against KC’s righty-heavy lineup and a dominant relief corps behind him, the tout does not see the Royals reaching five runs for the 39th time at home.

Just A Bet Outside advised betting against Jack Flaherty until he rediscovers his mechanics. The Tigers’ right-hander has surrendered 7, 8, 3, and 3 earned runs in his last four starts while issuing 14 walks across just 18 innings. The tout emphasized that Flaherty’s command has completely evaporated, putting him at risk for another quick hook and making Detroit a team to fade on both the full-game moneyline and first-five markets. Under bettors can also consider Flaherty’s strikeout under, given the high walk rate likely to inflate pitch counts and shorten his outing.

Just A Bet Outside endorsed riding Shane Baz on Monday, pointing to his return to pre-injury form. Over his last two outings Baz tossed 7 and 8 innings respectively, piling up 20 strikeouts while allowing only three earned runs versus Oakland and Kansas City. The host believes those performances signal that his fastball/slider combo is fully back and that Detroit’s slumping lineup (bottom-10 wOBA in July) will struggle to make contact. Backing Baz’s strikeout over or laying the short road juice on Tampa’s moneyline were both mentioned as viable bets.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Cristopher Sanchez as Monday’s sneaky strikeout play. San Francisco has the single highest K-rate against lefties over the past three weeks at nearly 29%. Sanchez sports 108 strikeouts in 100.2 innings and already torched the Giants on April 17th, fanning 12 across seven frames—his best game of the season. Recent form shows volatility (9, 5, 4, 11, 5 Ks last five), but the host stressed that the matchup is tailor-made for his change-up heavy arsenal. Even with a lower 24.1% K-rate on the road, the Giants’ swing-and-miss profile makes the over on his strikeout prop (likely 5.5) an attractive bet with ladder potential to 8+.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob deGrom is in a prime strike-out spot Monday in Anaheim. The Angels own the 5th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching this season at 24.2%, and deGrom has piled up 100 punch-outs in 101.1 innings. He has logged 6-plus strikeouts in five straight outings and carries a massive 32.5% strikeout rate on the road compared to 21.4% at Globe Life Field. The tout noted deGrom’s whiff rate jumps to 29.2% versus left-handed bats, an edge against an Angels lineup that tilts lefty. While he rarely clears 7 Ks (only 3 of 17 starts), the matchup and venue give confidence to bet his over on standard props (likely 5.5 or 6.5) or use him as a K ladder anchor.

Just A Bet Outside locked in a one-unit parlay built around three low alternate team-total overs: Cubs over 2.5 runs, Rays over 2.5 runs and Brewers over 1.5 runs. He already laid out the individual cases earlier—Chicago draws Miles Mikolas (6.50 June ERA, .318 AVG against) in 88-degree Wrigley heat; Tampa faces Chris Paddack (6.06 June ERA) with 90-degree temps and a 13-mph breeze to left-center; Milwaukee gets Sandy Alcantara, who has surrendered 2+ earned runs in 15 of his last 16 starts while the Brewers have plated at least two in 20 straight. By combining the soft landing spots into a single ticket, the host thinks bettors can keep juice manageable while still riding three of Friday’s hottest offenses against hittable right-handers, making the parlay his favorite card anchor heading into the July 4 slate.

Just A Bet Outside is eyeing Michael Soroka over 17.5 outs or over 5.5 strikeouts—both currently at plus money—for Friday’s matinee in Boston. Soroka sits in the 75th percentile for strikeout and walk rates, enabling inning-eating efficiency, and the Nationals have historically allowed starters to work deep when effective. Since the Rafael Devers trade, seven of the 12 right-handers Boston has faced cleared the 17.5-out mark. The Red Sox also own the 7th-highest K-rate versus righties over the past three weeks (23.7%), aligning with Soroka’s recent strikeout logs of 7-5-9-10-5. The host has not finalized the pick but leans to both overs, especially the outs prop given the plus-price and a taxed Washington bullpen that needs length.

Just A Bet Outside took a half-unit stab on the Los Angeles Angels at +140 in Toronto, framing it as a classic let-down spot for the Jays after their emotional four-game sweep of the Yankees that exhausted the bullpen. Spot starter Eric Lauer rarely goes beyond five frames and has yielded seven earned across his last 19 innings, meaning that tired relief corps should be asked for four plus innings. Over the past three weeks the Angels are 10th in wRC+, 5th in slugging and league-best in ISO versus left-handed pitching, giving them quick-strike power. Kyle Hendricks has quietly allowed only six earned in his last 22 innings with a 6.2% walk rate, providing a serviceable counter. With the starting-pitcher edge narrow and Toronto possibly flat, the host likes the plus-money bite on Anaheim.

Just A Bet Outside called the Milwaukee Brewers team-total over 1.5 runs the “de-juicer” leg. Milwaukee has scored at least two runs in 20 straight games, averaging nearly six. Over the last three weeks vs right-handers they sit 5th in wRC+, 5th in slugging and 3rd in batting average. Sandy Alcantara’s June ERA is still north of 4.00 and he just surrendered seven earned on 10 hits to Arizona; he has allowed 2+ earned in 15 of his past 16 outings. Even if Alcantara works deep, the host believes two runs is an extremely attainable number for a scorching Brewers lineup.

Just A Bet Outside recommended the Tampa Bay Rays team-total over 2.5 runs in Minnesota. Forecasts call for 90°F temperatures and 13-mph wind out to left-center—one of Friday’s best hitting settings. Tampa has scored 3+ in nine of the last 10 overall and nine of the last 10 on the road (5.9 RPG). During the past three weeks versus righties they rank 1st in wRC+, 2nd in slugging, and 5th in ISO. Chris Paddack has allowed 3+ earned in four straight with a 6.06 June ERA and diminished whiffs. With the Rays batting first and guaranteed nine trips, the tout sees three runs as the floor and likes the over 2.5 for parlays or solo wagers.

Just A Bet Outside urged bettors to grab the Chicago Cubs team-total over 2.5 runs (and even sprinkle the standalone 4.5) Friday at Wrigley. The Cubs are a top-3 offense overall and have obliterated right-handers, clearing three runs in 17 of their last 20 games against right-handed starters and averaging 5.5 runs in that stretch. They have scored 3+ in seven of their past 10 overall (4.7 RPG). Miles Mikolas limps in with a 6.50 June ERA, .318 average against and four starts of 3+ earned in his last six while striking out very few hitters. With 88-degree temps boosting run environment and Mikolas’ inability to miss bats, the host expects five or more Chicago runs, making the alt total a strong parlay anchor or straight bet.

Just A Bet Outside endorsed backing Strider’s strikeout over prop against Baltimore, which owns the third-highest K-rate vs right-handers in the last three weeks (25.7%). Even in an "injury-shortened" campaign, Strider has racked up 57 Ks in 49 innings. His recent totals show the volatility (5, 13, 8, 8, 4) but underline the ceiling when both pitches are working. He fans hitters at a 30.2% clip at Truist Park compared with 26.4% on the road, and he strikes out righties 29.8% of the time. The host expects Strider’s number to open around 8.5; given the matchup, home splits, and Baltimore’s swing-and-miss tendencies, he likes the over for bettors chasing double-digit K upside in DFS or prop markets.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Soroka’s strikeout upside against a Red Sox club striking out at the seventh-highest clip versus righties in the past three weeks (23.7%). Soroka has quietly reinvented himself, logging 64 strikeouts in 59.1 innings and posting game logs of 7, 5, 9, 10 and 5 Ks across his last five starts. His K-rate climbs to 27.4% at home, and his splits are even against righties and lefties, removing platoon concerns. With Boston fanning this often and Soroka’s pitch count no longer restricted, the tout expects another 6-plus strikeout effort, making the over on his prop number (projected 5.5) a solid wager.

Just A Bet Outside said Olson’s strikeout over prop is worth attacking in his first start back from the IL. Cleveland owns the third-highest K-rate against right-handers over the last three weeks (25.9%), a massive jump from 2023. Olson has already punched out 51 hitters in 48.2 MLB innings and produced 6-plus Ks in four of his final five outings before the hamstring issue. The host noted Detroit let him reach 75 pitches in his rehab tune-up, so a 75-80 pitch leash feels realistic. Olson’s road K-rate (26.9%) and slight edge versus lefties support a path to 5-6 strikeouts even with the modest workload, making the over on his posted number (likely 4.5) attractive.

Just A Bet Outside finished his parlay with Royals UNDER 6.5 runs. Kansas City averages only 3.3 runs per game and has scored six or fewer in 75 of 87 contests. Their wRC+ versus righties is third-worst over the last three weeks and now they travel to MLB’s most suppressive venue, T-Mobile Park. Bryan Woo owns a 2.08 ERA, .174 opponent average, and 0.82 WHIP at home, allowing one or zero earned in four of six starts. With Woo’s elite command, a spacious outfield, and Seattle’s strong bullpen backing him, the Royals would need to double their season average to bust this under—an outcome the host deemed highly improbable.

Just A Bet Outside bet the Angels team-total OVER 2.5 runs, citing Bryce Elder’s full-scale meltdown. Elder has been bludgeoned for 25 hits and 18 earned runs across his last 10.2 innings, coughing up nearly two hits and two runs per inning while posting an 8/8 K-to-BB ratio. The Angels have scored 3+ runs in ten straight games (6.1 per game over that span) and 16 of their last 20 overall, flexing middling power from Jo Adell to Jorge Soler. As the road side they receive nine cracks at Elder plus an overworked Atlanta bullpen, making three runs a soft hurdle for an offense already on a double-digit OVER streak.

Just A Bet Outside played the Detroit Tigers team-total OVER 2.5 runs as the first leg of his alt-total parlay. Detroit owns MLB’s second-best wRC+ (135) and tops the league in slugging and ISO versus right-handed pitching over the last three weeks, scoring 3+ runs in eight of their last ten and 76% of games started by righties this season. Jake Irvin brings a 4.98 xFIP and just a 16% strike-out rate against left-handed bats, exactly where the Tigers do their damage. He has surrendered two or more earned runs in 14 of 17 starts and limped through June with a 7.01 ERA and .303 BAA. Add nine guaranteed road at-bats plus a bottom-five Nationals bullpen and three runs look almost automatic.

Just A Bet Outside pounded the table for Luis Ortiz UNDER 17.5 outs recorded at ‑125. He reminded viewers that Ortiz has failed to clear this number in six of nine road starts and even the three ‘overs’ landed exactly on 18 outs, so his ceiling for length is razor-thin. On the road Ortiz owns a 5.10 ERA, 12.5% walk rate, and a 1.48 WHIP, all of which inflate pitch counts. The real kicker is the matchup: the Cubs have the fifth-lowest chase rate (26.4%) and fourth-lowest whiff rate in MLB, stringing out at-bats and forcing early exits. Fourteen of the last fifteen right-handed starters to face Chicago have stayed UNDER 17.5 outs, with only two of them even reaching six full innings. With Cleveland’s bullpen fully rested after Allard’s three-inning stint, the Guardians will have no hesitation pulling Ortiz the moment he wobbles. All arrows point to another early hook at Wrigley.

Just A Bet Outside advised continuing to attack Bryce Elder in the betting markets. Elder has fallen apart during his last three outings, surrendering 25 hits and 18 earned runs in only 10.2 innings. The host emphasized that hitters are teeing off on every pitch and Elder is showing no ability to miss bats or get out of trouble. Until Elder strings together at least one quality start, Steven plans to bet opposing team-total overs or first-five inning overs whenever the right-hander takes the mound, noting that bookmakers have not fully adjusted after last year’s breakout.

Just A Bet Outside doubled down on Hunter Brown’s strikeout prop, locking in over 6.5 Ks at –115 for a half-unit despite whiffing on the right-hander in prior bets. He pointed out that Brown has cleared this line in 11 of 16 starts and owns elite swing-and-miss metrics (92nd percentile K-rate, 74th whiff rate, 73rd chase rate). The Rockies still strike out plenty at Coors—third-highest K-rate vs righties since June 1 (24.5%). To underscore the matchup, he listed the last five right-handed visitors to Denver: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 Ks/5 IP), Brandon Pfaadt (7 Ks/5 IP), Merrill Kelly (7 Ks/6 IP), Zac Gallen (5 Ks/5 IP) and Hayden Birdsong (6 Ks/6 IP)—all averaged at least a punch-out per inning. With Brown favored to reach 17.5 outs, Stephen expects six frames and believes the Astros’ ace-quality stuff can deliver 7–9 strikeouts, making the over a strong betting play and useful DFS leverage even if he allows a few runs in the altitude.

Just A Bet Outside fired on Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts at –115 (Bet365), saying the market should have opened 7.5. Brown has punched out nine or more hitters in three of his last five starts and sits in the 92nd percentile for K-rate, 74th for whiff rate and 73rd for chase. Colorado has the worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (30.3%) and the game is at Coors, where hitters are more aggressive. Despite two recent duds (4 and 5 Ks), Stephen trusts Brown’s elite swing-and-miss arsenal to exploit a free-swinging lineup and expects 7–9 punch-outs, making the over 6.5 a strong single-game prop and DFS leverage play.

Just A Bet Outside finished his parlay with Yankees team total over 1.5 runs. New York has scored at least two runs in 71 of 85 games (84%) and averages five per night. Jose Berrios is improved this season, but the Bombers have tattooed him historically—5.25 ERA in last year’s meetings and Aaron Judge alone owns four career homers off the right-hander. Even if Berrios tosses a quality start, two earned runs get the job done, and as the road team the Yankees are guaranteed nine innings of offense. Stephen labeled this the 'D-juicer leg' that brings the parlay price into playable range.

Just A Bet Outside played the Angels’ alternate team total over 2.5 runs against 20-year-old righty Hurston Fuentes. Fuentes has been shelled for 10 earned runs on 14 hits with only four strikeouts across his first 8.1 MLB innings—losses to the Marlins and Mets, two below-average offenses. The Angels, meanwhile, have plated three-plus in nine of their last ten and are averaging six runs per game. Over the past three weeks they own the league’s second-highest walk rate versus right-handers, forcing pitchers like Fuentes into the zone. Stephen also noted that L.A. has hit better on the road all season. He needs only three runs before the Braves’ bullpen enters, making the over 2.5 a preferred leg of his parlay.

Just A Bet Outside bet the Tigers’ alternate team total over 2.5 runs in Game 1 of the double-header against Trevor Williams. Williams carries a 5-plus ERA in every month this season and is getting mauled by left-handed hitters (.373 AVG / .576 SLG, 7 of 9 homers allowed). Detroit can throw six or seven lefties at him and the offense is scorching—three or more runs in eight of the last ten games and 5.7 runs per contest over that span. The Nats bullpen is bottom-five in xFIP, and because Detroit is on the road the lineup is guaranteed nine trips to the plate. With the full-game team total posted at 5.5, Stephen grabbed the safer alternate number at 2.5 to anchor his parlay.

Just A Bet Outside advised fading Mick Abel in the early game of the Padres–Phillies double-header, calling the rookie "due for another blow-up start." Abel’s expected ERA sits at 5.38, he is not missing bats, and the hard contact he allows is mounting. Although the walk rate is tolerable, Stephen expects San Diego’s right-hand-heavy lineup to punish Abel’s mediocre stuff in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. He suggested betting the Padres’ team-total overs or taking San Diego on the first-five moneyline rather than trusting the rookie.

Just A Bet Outside argued that Hunter Brown is still a strong strikeout play even at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Colorado owns the highest K-rate in baseball against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (30.3%). Brown has 118 strikeouts in 98 innings this season and has posted monster games of 9 and 12 Ks in two of his last four starts. While his road K-rate (28.4%) lags behind his 37% mark at Minute Maid, he dominates lefties (34.2% K-rate). Brown’s only other Coors appearance came last July, but Stephen notes the 25-year-old is a far better pitcher now. He is betting the over on Brown’s strikeout prop—expecting a 7-9 K window—and sees him as a discounted, high-upside DFS tournament option.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting Sonny Gray’s strikeout over when he lines up against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have struck out at the 9th-highest clip versus right-handers over the past three weeks (23.1%). Gray has 101 Ks in 93.2 innings on the season and is fresh off a complete-game 11-strikeout masterpiece against Cleveland. His punch-out rate actually climbs on the road (28.7%) and spikes against left-handed bats (29.6%). Gray has already faced Pittsburgh twice this year and logged a strikeout per inning (12 Ks in 12 IP). With that profile, Stephen expects 7-plus strikeouts on Wednesday and likes anything at 6.5 or lower in betting markets while viewing Gray as a high-floor/high-ceiling DFS arm.

Just A Bet Outside said Jacob Misiorowski’s strikeout prop is worth attacking when he faces the Mets in Wednesday’s double-header. New York owns the 12th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (22.5%). The 23-year-old rookie has already piled up 19 strikeouts in just 16 major-league innings, recording 5, 6 and 8 Ks in his first three outings. This will be only his second road start, but he punched out six Twins across six frames in his first. Misiorowski has flashed a huge 40% K-rate against left-handed hitters compared to 29% versus righties, and Milwaukee needs innings because of the double-header. Stephen thinks the Brewers will let him go deep enough to clear any strikeout line that opens at 5.5 or lower, making the over and DFS tournament exposure enticing.

Just A Bet Outside laid a full unit on the Cubs -1 alternate run line at Wrigley, citing edges in the rotation, lineup splits, and bullpen. Guardians rookie Gavin Williams has struggled versus right-handed hitters, surrendering a .294 average, .429 slugging, 1.73 WHIP and 4.48 xFIP, while walking nearly 14% of batters on the road. Chicago’s order is loaded with righties and, over the last three weeks, ranks fifth in wRC+ and second in slugging against right-handed pitching. On the other side, left-hander Matthew Boyd has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in six straight starts and owns a 2.41 ERA with a stingy 0.88 WHIP at Wrigley. That’s problematic for a Cleveland lineup that has been bottom-three versus southpaws all year and, in the past three weeks alone, sits sixth-worst in wRC+, fifth-worst in batting average, and fourth-worst in slugging against lefties. Bullpen form reinforces the play: Cubs relievers sport a 2.78 ERA and 3.66 SIERA over the last three weeks, while the Guardians pen has a bloated 4.91 ERA and 4.29 SIERA. With both clubs rested after a day off, the tout concluded Chicago holds pitching, hitting, and relief advantages, making the Cubs -1 an actionable side he’s willing to scale up to -1.5 for smaller stakes.

Just A Bet Outside also tacked the Tigers over 2.5 runs onto the parlay and said he would be comfortable at 3.5 or even 4.5. Detroit has scored three-plus in eight of the last 10 games and nearly six per game during that window. Over the past three weeks the Tigers rank 2nd in wRC+ and 1st in slugging against right-handed pitching. Trevor Williams is a tailor-made target: a .373 average and .576 slugging allowed to lefties, with seven of nine homers given up coming from that side. Detroit is likely to roll out six or seven left-handed bats (Carpenter, Greene and company) before forcing Washington’s below-average bullpen into action. Williams has posted an ERA north of 5.00 in every month this season, giving the tout confidence that three runs is a conservative projection even with a slight rain risk in the forecast.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed the Reds team total over 2.5 runs as the first leg of his alt-team-total parlay. Cincinnati has plated at least three runs in eight of the past 10 games and is averaging 5.0 runs per contest in its last 10 road dates. Over the previous three weeks the lineup sits top-10 in batting average versus right-handers. Richard “Dick” Fitz offers the perfect punching bag: seven homers allowed in just 25 innings and three-plus runs surrendered in both of his Fenway starts. Tuesday’s forecast—90 degrees with a 10-mph breeze blowing out—plus a game total of 10 underscores the hitting environment. With only three runs needed, the tout labeled the over 2.5 “a lay-up.”

Just A Bet Outside laid out why he is backing the Twins at -140 in Miami. He pointed to Joe Ryan’s 29% strike-out rate, elite 5.6% walk rate and a run of 12 outings with two or fewer earned runs in 16 tries. Edward Cabrera’s control issues (multiple walks in nearly every start and fewer than six innings in 12 of 13 appearances) set up a clear pitching edge. Offensively, Minnesota owns the 9th-highest slugging percentage and 5th-highest ISO against right-handers over the past three weeks and is still averaging 4+ runs despite a 3-7 skid. The Marlins just swept a seven-game road trip but now face the classic let-down: travel day, first game back home and only 3.2 runs per game in their last 10 at LoanDepot Park. Add in a better bullpen on the Twins side and the tout called this a textbook sell-high on Miami and buy-low on Minnesota.

Just A Bet Outside recommended betting Yoshinobu Yamamoto's strikeout over against the White Sox. Chicago carries the 10th-highest K-rate against right-handed pitching (22.9%), and Yamamoto has piled up 101 strikeouts across 89.2 innings. His most recent start was clipped by a rain delay, yet he still fanned six hitters on roughly 50 pitches—good pace for double-digits under normal conditions. Even with a quieter 23.6% K-rate in June, the rookie still posts a 27.2% mark at home and a 29.7% rate versus lefties, both favorable against a Sox lineup loaded with left-handed swing-and-miss. The tout projects seven or more punch-outs, making the over on his strikeout line a priority play.