Peter Appel strongly recommends betting the White Sox over their team total runs against Ben Lively and the Cleveland Guardians. Appel notes that Cleveland starter Ben Lively has allowed at least two earned runs in 15 of his past 19 starts (79%) and went over 1.5 earned runs in 10 of his past 14 home starts (71%). Facing the current White Sox hitters, Lively has struggled to a .286 batting average and an elite .454 xwOBA allowed, coupled with a low 12.5% strikeout rate—one of the worst pitcher-matchups on today's slate. Historically, Chicago's top hitters Mike Tauchman, Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn are batting .461 collectively (6-for-13) against Lively, with multiple extra-base hits. Furthermore, despite the Guardians bullpen historically being strong, Appel points out Cleveland relievers currently rank a middling 19th in WHIP this season and have had some concerning underlying metrics (4.13 FIP). Given these factors, Appel confidently projects 3.7 runs for Chicago, recommending betting the team total number up to -150 odds.

Peter Appel advised betting the under on Ben Lively's 4.5 strikeout line against the White Sox. Appel highlights that Ben Lively ranks 240th out of 241 qualified pitchers in Stuff+ this season, indicating significant issues with his pitching arsenal. Lively's barrel rate has nearly doubled from last season, suggesting increased vulnerability. Historically, Lively has struggled against Chicago, averaging just 3.33 strikeouts per outing in three starts against a weaker White Sox lineup last year. This 2025 White Sox team strikes out less compared even to the Royals, whom Lively managed only 3 strikeouts against in his previous outing. Additionally, Progressive Field is statistically tough for pitchers chasing strikeouts, ranking as the 8th hardest park to achieve them. Last season, Lively stayed under 4.5 strikeouts in 17 of his 29 starts overall (59%) and 10 of his 14 (71%) home games. In his last eight home appearances, he averaged only 2.8 strikeouts and never exceeded 4.5. Appel projects him at 4.0 strikeouts, assigning a 60% likelihood to the under, recommending betting it up to -130 odds.

Peter Appel advocated targeting Clay Holmes early in the season based on significant improvements made over the offseason. Holmes, previously a reliever, transitioned into a starting role and expanded his repertoire significantly. He now features six distinct pitches—including a newly added kick-change, improved four-seam fastball, and a cutter—making him difficult for hitters to prepare for early in the year. Holmes excelled in spring training, posting a 0.98 ERA in 19.1 innings alongside an impressive 31.9% strikeout rate. Appel emphasizes that typically spring stats can be misleading, but given Holmes' substantial adjustments, hitters will struggle early, particularly without comprehensive scouting data available.

Peter Appel favors Astros starter Framber Valdez, highlighting his historical effectiveness early in the season, including a 2.60 ERA in early 2024 and 2.54 ERA in early 2023. Valdez has particularly excelled against the current Mets roster, limiting them to a .238 batting average, a poor .281 xwOBA, and inducing a high 25.6% strikeout rate with ground balls dominating at a mere 1.7 degree average launch angle. Injuries weakening the Mets lineup, specifically Jeff McNeil (97 wRC+) and Francisco Alvarez (102 wRC+) heading to the IL, further elevate his projected success early in the season.

Peter Appel strongly backs Sonny Gray's strikeout prop over for Opening Day against his former team, the Twins. Sonny Gray historically thrives during March and April, boasting a 2.95 ERA in these months and striking out hitters at a career-best rate. Last year, Gray managed a stellar 1.16 ERA with 32 strikeouts in just 23 innings during early-season play. Despite a lackluster spring ERA, his strikeout numbers remained robust (17 Ks in 14.1 IP). He exceeded the projected strikeout total in 24 of 28 starts last year, including 14 of his last 15. Appel further highlights Gray's historical excellence against current Twins hitters, holding them to a mere .152 avg and a high 24.7% strikeout rate, particularly dominating against right-handed hitters, making this a strongly suggested half-unit wager up to -120 odds.

Peter Appel recommends betting against Derek Hill recording a hit, run, or RBI on Opening Day against elite right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes. Hill, while solid against left-handed pitching (career 133 wRC+), has struggled severely against right-handers, posting an exceptionally poor 39 wRC+. Last year this split was even wider (176 wRC+ vs lefties vs just 36 vs righties). Hill faces arguably MLB's premier right-handed pitcher, Skenes, early in the game, who is projected to throw at least five innings. Afterward, the Pirates bullpen’s top three arms remain exclusively right-handed. Even if lefties appear later, Appel maintains it's still unlikely Hill produces given the extreme disadvantages, making this +140 bet a worthwhile half-unit play.