Mark Andrews Over 36.5 receiving yards was recommended. Detroit’s second-level defenders vacate RPO seams, and Andrews averages 2.21 yards per route vs blitz since 2024. Two chunk catches get him home. Confidence grade: 3/5.

Tipster played Jameson Williams Over 49.5 receiving yards at ‑120. With Baltimore’s secondary tilted toward Amon-Ra underneath, Williams is projected to see single coverage on posts and go-routes. One explosive catch (career 19.8 aDOT) can clear half the number. Confidence grade: 3/5.

LM Tipster took Sam LaPorta Over 44.5 receiving yards. Baltimore’s blitz looks funnel quick targets to the tight end; LaPorta’s option routes and play-action leaks are reliable drive extenders. Confidence grade: 3/5.

Tipster bet Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards. Detroit’s quick-game runs through his slot routes, and he wins versus Baltimore’s pressure packages with a league-leading 76% catch rate on throws under 2.5 seconds. Works in both trailing and neutral scripts. Confidence grade: 4/5.

Tipster took Derrick Henry Over 87.5 rushing yards. Baltimore plans to open run-first to dictate tempo; if they jump ahead, Henry’s fourth-quarter hammer volume can smash this number on its own. Detroit is allowing 4.5 YPC to backs through two weeks. Confidence grade: 3/5.

Tipster also played Lamar Over 44.5 rushing yards. Designed keepers plus scramble frequency rise in primetime, and Baltimore’s red-zone boots add bonus upside. In game scripts where the Ravens protect a lead, late-down scrambles alone can push him into the 50s. Confidence grade: 3/5.

LM Tipster bet Lamar Jackson Over 235.5 passing yards at ‑115. Detroit must allocate an extra safety to contain QB run, which opens intermediate windows for Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. The Lions run heavy doses of single-high and man coverage, schemes Jackson historically shreds (8.6 YPA vs single-high looks since 2023). Yardage can pile up without a single deep bomb. Confidence grade: 4/5.

Even while backing Baltimore, Tipster grabbed Lions team total Over 24.5, pointing to an elite offensive line when healthy and a diversified route trio (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams) that attacks every level. The Lions are projected for three to four scoring drives regardless of game script. Confidence grade: 3/5.

Tipster took Ravens team total Over 29.5. Detroit struggles with mobile QBs and deep crossers created by play-action. Between Derrick Henry’s grind, Lamar’s explosives, and potential short fields if pressure rattles Goff, multiple touchdown pathways exist. Confidence grade: 3/5.

LM Tipster laid the 4.5 points with Baltimore, arguing the Ravens’ roster construction directly attacks Detroit’s weak spots. On offense, the target tree is concentrated on Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews while the downhill run game now features Derrick Henry, giving Lamar Jackson two reliable safety valves. On defense, Baltimore’s front four owns the early-down matchup, projected to set up frequent 2nd-and-long situations that force Jared Goff to throw outside of script. Jackson’s rushing ability is the ‘floor-raiser’ that keeps drives alive even when protection breaks down, so covering a one-score spread at home is framed as a “fair ask.” Confidence grade: 4/5.

Zay Flowers Over 70.5 receiving yards was flagged. Pre-snap motion and stacked releases give him free access, and if Detroit loads the box for Henry/Jackson, Flowers’ crossers become the primary answer. Confidence grade: 3/5.

LM Tipster laid ‑1.5 with Seattle. Bryce Woo (5-2, 2.40 ERA) owns a 0.91 WHIP and faces rookie Zebby Matthews, who was tagged for six runs in his debut (7.71 ERA). The Twins strike out 29% versus righties, worst in MLB, giving Woo path to a deep outing.

LM Tipster bet Diamondbacks moneyline because Merrill Kelly (5-2, 3.52 ERA) is lights-out at Chase Field (1.98 ERA). Nationals righty Jake Irvin (3.42 ERA) has benefited from a .264 BABIP, and LM expects regression facing an Arizona lineup top-5 in hard-hit rate since May 10.

LM Tipster laid ‑1.5 with the Padres. Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.72 ERA) has a 35% K-rate since moving to Petco, while Mitch Keller (1-6, 3.66 ERA) is leaking velocity and has a 5.12 ERA over his last five. San Diego is 12-4 versus right-handed starters at home.

LM Tipster laid Astros ‑1.5 because Framber Valdez (4-4, 3.39 ERA) draws a Rays lineup that is bottom-eight in OPS vs lefties. Ryan Pepiot (3-5, 3.55 ERA) has allowed a .511 SLG on the road, and Houston owns the league’s lowest strikeout rate in May (18%).

LM Tipster took Over 9 runs. Globe Life Field’s retractable roof will be open with temps in the 90s. Jack Leiter (4.17 ERA, 1.5 HR/9) faces a St. Louis lineup that crushes fastballs, while Matthew Liberatore’s 2.73 ERA is backed by a 4.21 xFIP, suggesting regression. Texas leads MLB in runs per game at home (6.1).

LM Tipster bet Corey Seager over 1.5 total bases. Liberatore’s .288 average allowed to lefties is rare reverse-split vulnerability Seager can exploit. Seager carries a .425 wOBA at home and owns 13 extra-base hits in his past 15 games.

LM Tipster targeted Riley Greene to score a run. Greene gets on base at a .380 clip versus right-handers and hits ahead of Spencer Torkelson, giving him multiple paths to plate appearances. Seth Lugo’s climb in WHIP from 1.05 to 1.30 over his last four outings suggests more traffic.

LM Tipster took Braves moneyline because Lucas Giolito (5.27 ERA) continues to fight velocity loss while Atlanta’s offense ranks first in HR% at home. Rookie Gavin Holmes (3-3, 3.68 ERA) keeps the ball on the ground (58%), limiting Boston’s big inning potential. Braves bullpen is fully rested after Thursday’s off day.

LM Tipster played Tigers moneyline with Casey Mize (6-1, 2.45 ERA) sporting a 61% ground-ball rate that neutralizes K.C.’s speed game. Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.02 ERA) has faded lately, allowing a .290 average third time through the order. Detroit’s defense ranks second in Outs Above Average, backing Mize.

LM Tipster likes Thairo Estrada over 1.5 hits. Estrada is hitting .342 vs sinkers and Cal Quantrill throws the pitch 40% of the time. With Estrada batting second and Miami’s bullpen carrying a 5.21 ERA, LM projects four plate appearances, enough volume for two knocks.

LM Tipster bet Mets ‑1.5 because David Peterson (3-2, 2.79 ERA) draws MLB’s worst road lineup. Kyle Freeland (0-7, 5.86 ERA) has been torched for a .938 OPS away from Coors. New York is 14-5 when favored by ‑150 or more, and their bullpen’s 29.4% K-rate since May 15 seals the wager.

LM Tipster fired on Matt Olson to homer. Giolito’s declining four-seam velocity (averaging 91.9 mph) has resulted in 12 HR allowed in nine starts. Olson has a .320 ISO against four-seamers below 93 mph, making Truist Park’s short right-field porch enticing.

LM Tipster grabbed Giants moneyline because rookie Kyle Harrison (3.86 ERA) has produced a 30% K-rate while Miami ranks 27th in wRC+ vs lefties. Cal Quantrill’s 6.09 ERA includes an ugly 7.88 mark at loanDepot park, giving San Francisco the starting pitching edge. The Giants are 10-3 in one-run games, insulating the straight moneyline play.

LM Tipster played Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 total bases. Tatis has a .990 OPS versus four-seamers and Keller leans on the pitch 47% of the time. With Keller allowing a .288 average to right-handers on the road, LM expects at least one extra-base hit from San Diego’s leadoff man.

LM Tipster fired Guardians moneyline with Luis Ortiz (2-5, 4.73 ERA) trending up after adding a cutter that generated 35% whiffs last time out. Angels rookie Jose Soriano (3-5, 3.73 ERA) struggles with command (11% BB-rate). Cleveland’s bullpen is top-3 in fWAR, giving them a late-inning edge.

LM Tipster selected Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 HR. Guerrero’s launch-angle tweak has produced a 53% hard-hit rate since May 1, and Jeffrey Springs’ four-seam/slider mix is the exact profile Vlad has slugged .645 against this season. Springs has already allowed eight long balls in 45 innings, giving LM confidence Vlad goes deep at +300.

LM Tipster is on Francisco Lindor to homer. Lindor has four bombs in 32 career plate appearances off soft-tossing lefties like Kyle Freeland. Citi Field’s weather calls for 11 mph out toward left, and Freeland’s 2.1 HR/9 on the road makes the +400 price attractive.

LM Tipster played Toronto ‑1.5 because Chris Bassitt (4-3, 3.38 ERA) owns a sparkling 1.88 ERA at Rogers Centre. The Athletics’ offense ranks dead last in ISO, and southpaw Jeffrey Springs has labored since Tommy John, allowing a .292 average his last four turns. Toronto’s bullpen sports MLB’s best WHIP (0.97) the past 14 days, helping protect the run-line.

LM Tipster grabbed Orioles moneyline because Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.40 ERA) finally looked healthy last start, punching out nine. Chicago owns MLB’s worst record (18-37) and ranks 29th in OPS vs righties. Sam Burke’s 11% walk rate puts extra runners on for Baltimore’s league-leading stolen-base attack.

LM Tipster laid Phillies ‑1.5 because Taijuan Walker (2-3, 2.97 ERA) has quietly posted a 55% ground-ball rate and faces a Milwaukee lineup that is bottom-five in wRC+ vs split-finger fastballs. Pirates call-up Quinn Priester (4.23 ERA) has issued 4.1 BB/9, so LM projects traffic for Philadelphia’s power bats in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

LM Tipster bet Under 8.5 runs because rookie Andrew Abbott (4-0, 1.77 ERA) has held opponents to a .196 average while Cubs right-hander Colin Rea (3-1, 3.28 ERA) limits hard contact (34% hard-hit). With Wrigley winds projected to blow in at 10 mph and both bullpens ranking top-10 in ERA over the past two weeks, LM expects a classic NL Central pitchers’ duel.

LM Tipster took Ketel Marte over 1.5 total bases. Marte owns a .550 SLG from the left side and gets Jake Irvin’s 43% sinker that he crushes for a .410 xwOBA. Marte has cleared this number in eight of his last ten contests at home.

LM Tipster likes Yordan Alvarez over 0.5 HR. Alvarez has a massive 56% hard-hit rate and faces Ryan Pepiot’s 48% fly-ball profile. Minute Maid’s short porch in right suits Alvarez’s pull power, and Pepiot has already surrendered nine homers in 63 frames.

LM Tipster took Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Henderson boasts a .400 OBP over the last two weeks and faces Sam Burke’s 91-mph fastball he crushes at a .600 xwOBA. With Henderson entrenched in the leadoff spot and the Orioles projected for 5.2 runs, LM forecasts multiple opportunities to clear the combo line.

LM Tipster took Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +350. Schwarber owns a .358 ISO against right-handers and draws Quinn Priester’s 1.9 HR/9 mark. The wind is blowing out to right at 8 mph and Schwarber has homered in three of his past five games when the Phillies’ implied total tops five runs.

LM Tipster said the Yankees moneyline is the best way to attack Friday’s marquee matchup because Max Fried has been untouchable (7-0, 1.29 ERA) since putting on the pinstripes. Tony Gonsolin’s 4.68 ERA and middling 2-1 record give Los Angeles a clear pitching disadvantage, and New York’s league-best 23-9 road record suggests they can handle Dodger Stadium. The handicap leans on Fried’s 32% strikeout rate and the Dodgers’ recent 26% K-rate versus southpaws.

LM Tipster played Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases, noting he owns a .704 SLG and averages 2.1 bases per game against right-handers. Tony Gonsolin is surrendering a career-worst .480 xSLG and relies heavily on a splitter Judge has slugged .750 against this season. With warm L.A. weather boosting carry, LM expects at least a double or a pair of singles from the Yankee captain.

LM Tipster targeted Elly De La Cruz to steal a base, citing his 97th-percentile sprint speed and aggressive 29-for-32 success rate. Cubs catcher Yan Gomes has thrown out only 18% of runners, and Colin Rea owns one of the slowest slide-steps on the slate (1.55 secs to the plate). In a low-scoring game LM expects Cincinnati to manufacture offense on the bases.

Kingpin Sports bet Over 9.5 runs, pointing out Aaron Civale’s brutal 9.00 ERA for Milwaukee and Boston’s yet-to-be-named starter adding volatility on the other side. The tout views both staffs as liabilities, making a high-scoring environment likely.

Kingpin Sports chose Mariners moneyline, forecasting a close contest between starters Mitchell Parker (4-3, 4.39) and Levi Evans (2-1, 3.33) but trusting Seattle’s superior bullpen to seal the deal at T-Mobile Park.

Kingpin Sports endorsed Diamondbacks ‑1.5, pointing to Corbin Burnes’ 2.73 ERA versus Mike Burrows’ 7.20. They expect Arizona to "dominate" thanks to the pronounced starting-pitching gap.

Kingpin Sports played the Padres moneyline, citing both the pitching edge of Sam Kolek (2-1, 2.84 ERA) over Max Meyer (3-4, 4.15) and San Diego’s "much stronger lineup." They foresee the Friars controlling all phases.

Kingpin Sports laid ‑1.5 with Houston, praising Hunter Brown’s 6-3 record and 2.04 ERA. They expect the Astros’ bats to jump J.P. Sears (4-4, 4.00) early and let Brown dominate from the mound.

Kingpin Sports recommended Rangers ‑1.5, leaning on Nathan Eovaldi’s sparkling 1.60 ERA (4-3) against Bowden Francis’ rough 5.54. They project Eovaldi to silence Toronto’s bats while Texas’ offense provides comfortable separation.

Kingpin Sports took Cubs ‑1.5, highlighting German Marquez’s disastrous 7.66 ERA (1-7 record) versus Cade Horton’s steadier 4.40. They anticipate Chicago’s lineup pouncing early and never looking back.

Kingpin Sports backed the Royals moneyline because Daniel Lynch IV has been "lights out" with a 1.57 ERA against Brandon Singer’s 4.88. They expect Kansas City to extend its home roll with superior starting pitching.

Kingpin Sports laid ‑1.5 with the Mets, stating their offense “should bounce early” in support of Tylor Megill (3-4, 3.56). With Jared Cannon’s 2-5 record/3.76 ERA on the other side, they see New York building a margin before the bullpens take over.

Kingpin Sports played the Twins moneyline, emphasizing Joe Ryan’s 4-2 record with a 2.68 ERA and plus command. They expect him to outduel Taj Bradley (4-3, 4.61) by missing bats and avoiding free passes, giving Minnesota the edge.