Kunath predicted Piera ‘La Fiera’ Rodriguez will out-grapple Ketlen Souza and cash on the judges’ cards. He compared this stylistic clash to Rodriguez’s bout with Angela Hill, pointing out that Rodriguez landed six takedowns there and rag-dolled Ariane Carnelossi before a head-butt loss. Souza can screw her feet into the mat and throw heavy counters, but Kunath believes Rodriguez’s blast double will be available all night. Once on top, Rodriguez offers strong control and the ability to bank rounds. Souza might stuff shots late, yet the early lead should hold. Kunath recommends the over and Rodriguez by decision as the best angle.

Kunath framed Rodolfo Vieira as ‘takedown-or-bust’: whenever the Brazilian fails to ground opponents he fades and loses. Tresean Gore knows the shot is coming and brandishes a murderous standing guillotine that has already ripped off Antonio Trocoli’s and Josh Fremd’s heads. On the feet Gore holds the clear power edge, and Vieira has been wobbled by far worse strikers like Cody Brundage. At 35, Vieira’s gas tank and durability are trending the wrong way. Kunath likes Gore either to catch that guillotine on an early level change or to spark Vieira in striking exchanges, recommending Gore money-line plus a sprinkle on Gore by submission/KO.

After blowing parlays in the loss to Muin Gafurov, Rinya Nakamura gets a get-right spot, according to Kunath. Nathan Fletcher was walked down and taken down six times by Kalan Lagrin, and Kunath argues you cannot fight a wrestler while backing up. He expects Nakamura to return to his bread-and-butter, chaining takedowns early and often, sitting in top control and banking minutes. Athleticism and wrestling edge should carry the Japanese prospect to a comfortable decision. Kunath recommends the Nakamura money-line and the decision prop for a better payday.

Kunath called 23-year-old Kevin Vallejos “a force” who could already hang with the division’s top-five tomorrow. Danny Silva, by contrast, is far too hittable in Kunath’s eyes and likely gets lit up for as long as the fight stays standing. The host compared the lopsided matchup to last week’s Carlos Leal spot, indicating the odds may not be wide enough. With youth, speed and power on his side, Vallejos is Kunath’s pick to win by knockout, making the KO prop the recommended bet.

Kunath said this is the first time in years the UFC has given Neil Magny a fair stylistic draw after throwing him at Ian Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Morales and other killers. Magny is the younger man, carries a clear height-and-reach edge and owns the kind of grind-heavy clinch game that lets him pile up knees, elbows, short punches and trip takedowns without gassing. Kunath acknowledged Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos could bank a few early calf-kicks against Magny’s skinny legs but insisted Zaleski will have to crash distance – exactly where Magny does his best work. Magny’s steadier pace should sap Zaleski over 15 minutes, letting ‘Uncle Neil’ pull away on the cards. The pick is Magny by decision, an angle Kunath believes cashes both Magny’s money-line and the Magny-by-decision prop.

Labeling it his favorite wager of the card, Kunath urged listeners to grab Neil Magny at +170 in what he called the “AARP fight of the week.” Magny has weathered a murderer’s-row schedule— Ian Garry, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Michael Morales, Mike Malott— yet still upset Malott and remains the division’s consummate gatekeeper. Kunath believes that depth of experience, Magny’s jab-and-clinch style, and his ability to drag fights deep make him undervalued against an aging peer (opponent not named in this clip). He expects the line to tighten and recommends locking in the moneyline while the veteran sits at dog odds.

Kunath sees Nora Cornolle as a steal around +160 against the erratic Karol Rosa. Rosa’s volume game can shine when she shows up, yet Kunath highlighted flat efforts versus Irene Perez and a lack of truly clean wins since 2021. Cornolle, meanwhile, has been finishing foes with vicious Muay Thai knees— folding Melissa Mullins and battering clinch opponents— and should deliver the bigger moments if she stays upright. Kunath concedes Rosa can rack up top time but doubts her consistency; he expects Cornolle to win most striking exchanges, inflict visible damage to the body, and edge a decision, making her a potential featured play in his betting article.

Kunath recommended betting Mateusz Rebecki by knockout over Chris Duncan. He pointed to Duncan’s shaky chin— rocked by Charlie Campbell on Contender Series and finished by Manuel Torres— and stated Rebecki throws the heavier hands while happily walking through fire. Rebecki can shoot takedowns at will, neutralising Duncan’s signature guillotine that Kunath believes seldom finishes high-level grapplers. With more power, forward pressure and the wrestling ace in his pocket, Rebecki “has more ways to win” and should end matters early; market money is already coming his way.

Kunath said he is comfortable parlaying Tatsuro Taira and expects the Japanese prospect to finish late-notice opponent HyunSung Park inside the distance. He argued Park has been dropped by lesser athletes, is taking the fight on short notice which will compromise his weight-cut, and is facing a big step-up from his past opposition. After the learning experience of a split-decision loss to Brandon Royval, Kunath anticipates Taira will showcase sharper stand-up, mixing kicks and straight punches to pick Park apart before either scoring a clean KO or a club-and-sub when Park is hurt. He predicted Taira moves to 17-1 and called the inside-distance prop the safest angle.

Kunath repeatedly highlighted Carlos Leal as his favorite spend-up option. Priced in the mid-9K range, Leal owns explosive round-one knockout upside that can smash tournament fields. Kunath prefers Leal over similarly priced names because Leal combines finishing power with solid cardio, giving him paths to 110+ points whether he ends the fight early or pours on volume across three rounds. In Kunath’s sample builds, Leal was the cornerstone whenever salary allowed.

Kunath called Petr Yan a classic co-main-event ownership trap. With only three rounds to work, Yan historically fails to produce slate-breaking numbers and instead grinds to decisions that hover in the 70-point range. Kunath expects Yan’s name value to inflate ownership in DFS despite a capped ceiling, urging players to pivot elsewhere in the high-salary range.

Kunath said Amanda Ribas is a smash-spot tournament play at $8,600 because she carries legitimate finish equity against Tabatha Ricci yet will likely be overlooked. It is the only women’s MMA bout on the Abu Dhabi card, a category that historically comes in under-owned even when it breaks slates. Kunath sees Ricci a step behind everywhere: Ribas should control the tempo on the feet with volume and can threaten submissions if the fight hits the mat. He put Ribas on “finish watch,” calling her ideal single-entry leverage—pivoting off Ricci chalk while leaving salary on the table to create unique builds.

Kunath explicitly advised against stacking the five-round main event in cash games this week. He believes the fight ends inside three rounds, creating asymmetric risk: one fighter scores well, the other likely busts, torpedoing the combined total. With most opponents still default-stacking, fading the stack provides a safer floor and leverage in double-ups and head-to-heads.

For cash games, Kunath recommended Marcus McGhee at $6,900 as the punt who "probably loses but ideally goes the distance." In McGhee’s lone UFC fight he would have scored 41 DFS points had he lost, so a 25-30 point floor is realistic. That stability allows players to jam high-priced favorites while avoiding volatile exposure. Kunath made it clear he would not play McGhee in tournaments but likes him for salary relief in double-ups.

Kunath suggested Martin Buday as a $7,100 cash or single-entry punt. Newcomer Boucher will struggle to put the massive, powerful Buday on his back, and Buday should be able to pick him apart standing. Although Buday rarely breaks 100 DK points, his durability and size create a decent floor (20-30 points even in a loss) while freeing salary for expensive studs. Kunath advised against going heavily overweight in MME but likes the leverage in tighter builds.

Kunath called Billy Elekana a "super sneaky" play at $7,300. Aslan’s game looks one-dimensional—big power early or nothing—while Elekana owns a "crazy chin," throws higher volume, and can mix in takedowns. Kunath expects Elekana to show no fear on the feet, rack up significant strikes, and potentially score 2-3 takedowns en route to either a decision win with control time or an inside-the-distance finish once Aslan fades.

Kunath labeled Bogdan Guskov an "obvious click" at $7,500 because of his brutal first- or second-round KO upside. Krylov was "knocked out badly" in his last outing and carries a lot of mileage, while Guskov enters with momentum and reckless power willing to trade. Even though Kunath isn’t guaranteeing a win, he emphasized that DFS players are paying strictly for ceiling: if Guskov lands early, the cheap price tag smashes GPPs.

Kunath called RDR "the right side of the main event" at dog salary. He cited RDR’s 6’4" frame, long limbs and elite back-taking skills displayed in wins over Gerald Meerschaert and Kevin Holland. Averaging 110 DK points, RDR knows he can’t win a five-round marathon, so Kunath expects a full-throttle approach that produces either a round-one or round-two submission/KO or bust. The knees RDR flashed last time out plus Robert Whittaker’s need to crash distance give RDR ample opportunity to get to his preferred grappling positions. For DFS, the boom-or-bust profile makes him a priority value play in tournaments.

Kunath warned that Saeed Nurmagomedov is unlikely to beat the much larger, cardio-strong Bryce Mitchell, yet absolutely must be in large-field GPP pools because of his trademark ninja-choke. Mitchell will hunt takedowns, presenting the exact sequence Saeed needs for a first- or second-round submission. Still, Kunath sees size, strength and gas-tank disadvantages, so he recommended capping Saeed around 15 % ownership and avoiding him in single-entry contests. The play is purely ceiling driven: if the choke hits early, you break the slate; if not, expect a low score.

Kunath said Asu Almabayev is his favorite sub-$8K value on DraftKings. Almabayev is now a slight betting favorite despite the $8,000 underdog salary because Jose Ochoa stepped in on short notice. Kunath highlighted Almabayev’s full camp, clear edge in experience and wrestling, and nine-takedown performance against CJ Vergara as proof of a huge DFS ceiling. DraftKings heavily rewards grappling (5 pts per takedown plus control time), so Kunath projected 5-7 takedowns with late-finish upside while still offering a solid decision floor. He framed it as the classic “favorite odds at dog pricing” situation that needs to be jammed into both cash builds and GPPs.

Kunath said Ryan Spann is only live for about five minutes in his heavyweight bout with Lucas Breske, so the smart angle is to bet Spann Round 1—or inside-the-distance—then flip to a live wager on Breske if the fight starts Round 2. He reminded listeners that Spann routinely fades after the first frame at light heavyweight and now looks even slower while carrying extra weight. Still, Spann’s early power and guillotine/triangle threats give him a clear edge over Breske, whose chin has already been cracked by softer punchers like Mick Parkin and ‘Salsa Boy’ and who lucked into a win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta. If Spann doesn’t end things quickly, Kunath expects Breske’s superior cardio and size to take over, so hedging in-fight is critical.

Kunath labeled Jimmy Crute an untrustworthy favorite but still sees a clear grappling edge over 35-year-old striker Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio stuffs only 47 % of takedowns and was submitted by Modestas Bukauskas via arm-triangle—hardly a noted submission specialist. Crute averages 4.8 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and owns five career subs, including a kimura of Michal Oleksiejczuk. Although Crute’s striking defense (41 %) makes him hittable, Prachnio’s lack of power—two finishes in seven UFC bouts—limits the danger. Kunath expects Crute to eat a few body kicks, change levels, drag Prachnio down, and lock up a choke inside Round 1 or 2. He cautioned bettors to keep stake size modest given Crute’s knack for self-sabotage but still endorsed Crute by submission as the sharp side.

Kunath recommended backing 22-year-old Francisco Prado by Round 2/3 knockout against the still-winless Nikolas Varetenakov. He noted Prado attempted 103 significant strikes and landed 3 takedowns in his UFC debut, showcasing cardio and finishing intent even when behind. Varetenakov, now 35, has absorbed 5.4 significant strikes per minute and showed little urgency in a listless loss to Austin Vanderford. Kunath expects Prado to apply his usual blitzes, feel out timing for one round, then pour on combinations once Varetenakov inevitably slows. Given Varetenakov’s sturdy chin, Kunath prefers later-round KO props (+650 Round 3) to the money line, insisting Prado will “fight for your money” if down on the cards.

Kunath advised taking plus money on Marvin Vettori in what he calls a coin-flip middleweight bout. He pointed out that Brendan Allen’s win condition is almost always top-position grappling—eight of his last nine victories came when he logged two or more takedowns or secured back control—but Vettori owns an 80 % takedown-defense rate and has never been submitted or finished in 15 UFC appearances. On the feet Vettori averages 4.38 significant strikes landed per minute to Allen’s 3.71 and has a better chin, having never been knocked down; Allen has been knocked out by both Chris Curtis and Sean Strickland. Kunath conceded Vettori’s power is “pillow-fisted” yet expects him to stuff enough shots, march forward, and touch Allen with southpaw jabs and left hooks. Because Vettori tends to win close rounds while judges reward Allen’s back-takes, Kunath forecasted a razor-thin fight that likely goes to a split decision, siding with Vettori’s durability and defensive wrestling for the upset.

Kunath leaned toward Vinicius “Lok Dog” Oliveira as a slight betting favorite, saying the Brazilian’s willingness to make every exchange ugly is kryptonite for Kyler Phillips’ slick, space-dependent style. Phillips looks elite only when allowed to operate at kickboxing range, but he historically slows after the first round—his significant-strike rate plunges from 5.7 per minute in Round 1 to 3.1 in Round 3. Oliveira, already boasting 25 pro bouts at age 29, routinely pushes 100+ significant-strike attempts and will test Phillips’ cardio by crowding him with body work and heavy hooks. Kunath added that Oliveira has never been knocked out, whereas Phillips’ output nosedives once he senses fatigue. He projected that over three rounds Oliveira lands the cleaner, harder shots, steals momentum with late flurries, and wins a competitive but deserved decision. The recommendation is Oliveira money line and a small sprinkle on Oliveira by decision at plus money.

Kunath said Daniel Zellhuber should not only cover his huge money-line price but put Michael Johnson away inside the distance. He argued that Johnson’s trademark ‘50-50’ volatility is gone as the 38-year-old’s durability and speed have deteriorated. Zellhuber owns a seven-inch reach edge, throws nearly two more significant strikes per minute, and has shown improved killer instinct since relocating to Xtreme Couture. Kunath expects Johnson to get stuck at the end of jab-kick combinations, fall behind early volume wise, then force exchanges he cannot win once frustration sets in. He compared the matchup to Johnson’s collapses versus Josh Emmett and Thiago Moises, predicting a mid-fight lapse that allows the much younger Mexican to drop him with a straight right and finish with ground-and-pound. He is betting Zellhuber by knockout rather than the steep –400 money line.

Kunath forecasted Daniel Zellhuber to comfortably outclass veteran Michael Johnson. Johnson’s durability and reflexes have eroded, whereas the 24-year-old Zellhuber owns a sizeable height and seven-inch reach advantage plus a far higher output. Kunath expects Zellhuber to keep Johnson at the end of long jabs and kicks, pile up volume, and mix in additional tools should the fight hit the mat. He thinks Johnson’s coin-flip days are over and predicts a lopsided Zellhuber decision.

Kunath sees value on Patricio "Pitbull" Freire as an underdog against divisional gatekeeper Dan Ige. Ige’s career pattern—beating non-elite foes and losing whenever competition jumps a level—suggests trouble when facing Pitbull’s championship experience, timing and stopping power. Unlike his debut versus Yair Rodriguez, Pitbull won’t be surrendering a big reach or speed deficit, and with only three rounds he plans to fight with more urgency. Kunath believes those edges allow Pitbull to land the harder, cleaner shots and squeak out a decision, proving he is far from cooked.

Kunath projected an easy night for Kevin Holland, calling Daniel Rodriguez out-gunned everywhere. Holland is younger, taller, has a massive reach edge, and is far superior on the mat. Rodriguez owns historically poor takedown defense and was d’arced by Neil Magny; Holland’s freakishly long arms make his d’arce and anaconda chokes lethal. Kunath envisions Holland either hurting Rodriguez and snatching a front-headlock, or even proactively wrestling to showcase growth, then finishing the choke just like he did to Vicente Luque. He plans to bet Holland by submission.

Kunath backed Paulo Costa even though the market favors Roman Kopylov. Costa’s recent defeats came only to champions or title challengers, while Kopylov’s resume is filled with fringe names like Josh Fremd and Claudio Ribeiro and includes late-fight cardio fades. Costa has proven he can maintain volume through five-round wars with Whitaker and others, and he is the same age as Kopylov—so no real age decline. Kunath expects a ‘vintage Borrachinha’ performance: constant forward pressure, combination punching, and lightning-quick high kicks that could slice through Kopylov’s guard. Given the perceived step down in competition and a betting line Kunath calls "just wrong," he projects Costa to take a decision.

Kunath said Dustin Poirier should complete a 3-0 sweep over Max Holloway and cash as a slight underdog. He argued Poirier can match Holloway’s trademark pace over five rounds, citing their nearly identical significant-strike numbers in the 2019 fight. Poirier’s heavier shots and punishing calf-kicks—aimed at Holloway’s historically vulnerable lead leg—should create the bigger moments on the judges’ cards. Kunath also questioned Holloway’s granite-chin narrative after the Topuria knockout and the all-time record for strikes absorbed. Poirier, meanwhile, has stayed durable, rolls with punches, and thrives in high-volume wars. In front of a Louisiana crowd, Kunath expects Poirier to land the cleaner, harder offense and win a decision.

Kunath recommended betting the Under on rounds in Kline–Martinez because he sees Kline ending things quickly no matter which finishing route opens. Martinez was rag-dolled for three takedowns by Elise Reed—a striker with mediocre wrestling—which signals a glaring grappling hole. At strawweight Kline is a true submission artist who effortlessly chains trips into back-takes, but she also unleashes brutal elbows when opponents turtle. Kunath worried that picking a specific method (sub or KO) could burn bettors, so he prefers the Under while still acknowledging Kline’s moneyline as the safe side given her size, technique, and Martinez’s obvious defensive grappling deficiencies.

Kunath flat-out dismissed newcomer Mitch Ramirez as UFC-level talent, noting the betting market has Davis sitting as a monster favorite for good reason. Davis owns six UFC appearances against real competition and has finished three of his last four wins, whereas Ramirez has never faced anything close to this level. Kunath expects Davis to dominate wherever the fight goes—technical boxing on the feet or ground-and-pound once a takedown lands—and recommended parlaying the moneyline or looking at inside-the-distance props because "this should be one-way traffic."

Kunath backed Valter Walker as a plus-money underdog, calling the Brazilian a budding heel-hook specialist whose 6’6” frame and raw horsepower make the submission especially nasty. He explained that in training partners move at half-speed on heel hooks because the joint damage comes instantaneously once the lock is fully in; under live lights Walker will be ripping at full force. Kennedy Nzechukwu owns the cleaner kickboxing and deeper gas tank, but Kunath expects at some point the light-heavyweights will tangle up, Walker will dive on the legs, and the smart play for Nzechukwu will be to tap early rather than risk an eight-month layoff with shredded knees. At + money Kunath is willing to live with the variance and is specifically looking for Walker by submission props.

Kunath is fading Chidi Njokuani after his second straight miss at the 170-lb mark, arguing a 6'3" 80-inch-reach striker cutting that low at age 36 is running on fumes. While Njokuani’s muay thai is "extremely crisp," Matthews is notoriously durable, owns the wrestling edge, and can neutralize Chidi’s length by clinching and dragging the fight to the mat. Kunath wants Matthews aggressive—pinning Njokuani to the fence, dirty-boxing, and stealing rounds late—and loves the plus-money price given Chidi’s obvious weight-cut deterioration.

Kunath likes Chris ‘Action Man’ Curtis returning to 170 lbs where he isn't dwarfed physically. Despite a tough cut, Curtis owns KOs over Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen at middleweight and carries elite takedown defense plus sharp pocket boxing. Max Griffin is actually older and, in Kunath’s view, offers little outside a close kickboxing match. Expect Curtis to stuff shots, control the pocket, and coast to a decision.

Tafa’s new, lean 205-lb frame has Kunath calling for a first- or second-round KO over Tokos, whom he doesn’t view as UFC caliber. Tokos was flattened on Road to UFC and has since been outclassed by Omar C and Navajo Sterling. Given that track record, Kunath is surprised the betting line isn’t wider and confidently backs the Kiwi striker to make short work of Tokos.

Kunath expects Vitor Petrino to starch the taller, longer Austen Lane. He dismissed Lane’s athletic background and reach advantage because Lane has been knocked out repeatedly in heavyweight slugfests. Petrino’s added bulk "looks puffy but will translate to power," and he only needs one clean left hook to end things. Unless Lane turns into a surprise grappler, Kunath believes a knockout for the Brazilian is inevitable, validating Petrino’s large price tag.

Kunath sees value on slight underdog Calvin Kattar, noting the New Englander is notoriously hard to knock out and tends to build momentum the longer a bout goes. He expects Garcia’s knockout threat to fade rapidly after Round 1, while Kattar’s cardio and volume climb. Kattar also holds the backup plan of offensive wrestling, something Garcia rarely shows. Because Garcia’s wins came over the likes of Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Chase Hooper, and Kyle Nelson—none on Kattar’s level—Kunath projects Kattar to win R2 and R3 or edge a decision at plus money.

Kunath backed the heavily-favored Gabriel Bonfim to finish 42-year-old Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson by submission. He called it a "nightmarish" style clash for Wonderboy because the grappling gap is "insurmountable." Bonfim’s youth, explosiveness, and one-shot takedown ability should let him crash distance after an early feeling-out period, drive Thompson to the fence, score a takedown, and latch a guillotine when Wonderboy scrambles. The tout believes Thompson’s trademark footwork has dulled with age and one clean grapple sequence ends the fight.

Kunath said the betting value sits squarely on Derrick Lewis at nearly +300. He argued the young, largely un-tested Tashara has never faced Lewis’ level of opposition, while the Black Beast has "been there, done that," owning multiple wins over elite heavyweights. Because both men are first-round knockout artists, the outcome will be violent and quick, but Lewis’ experience and proven power make him the side to back at this price. Kunath acknowledged the real risk of an early KO loss yet maintained the number alone justifies taking the dog shot.

Kunath called Jhonata Diniz “parlay fuel of the highest order,” predicting a walk-off knockout inside the opening round against newcomer Alvin Hines. He noted Hines is taking the fight on short notice and has never faced a striker who throws in combination like Diniz. The Brazilian heavyweight blends kickboxing volume with unexpected hand speed for a 260-pounder, and Kunath expects Hines to freeze once the first 4-5 punch-kick sequence lands—"men this big aren’t supposed to strike like that." Given the skill-gap and experience edge, Kunath bet Diniz ITD and recommended using his money-line as a safe parlay anchor.

Kunath recommended betting Tracy Cortez straight and sprinkling her Round-2/3 TKO props. He highlighted Cortez’s youth advantage, division-best chain-wrestling and disciplined top control. Viviane Araujo is physically stronger but historically blows through her gas tank once forced to fight off her back (55% bottom-position get-up rate). Kunath expects Cortez to abandon prolonged striking exchanges, shoot doubles early, and make Araujo work for every under-hook. By mid-fight those scrambles should drain Araujo’s arms, setting up Cortez to pass to mount and rain elbows—potentially earning her first UFC stoppage and a statement after a long layoff.

Kunath backed Ilia Topuria to finish Charles Oliveira inside the distance at UFC 317. He called Topuria “the biggest puncher at 155” and noted Oliveira has been knocked out four times and dropped by Islam Makhachev, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Michael Chandler. Although Oliveira’s height, teep kicks, clinch knees, and long right hand could trouble Topuria early, Kunath trusts the Georgian-Spaniard’s proven ability to ride out rough first rounds—referencing early scares against Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski, and Jai Herbert. Once Topuria finds range he throws 3-5-strike combinations no one survives. Kunath expects a highlight-reel KO but said a statement submission would not shock him, so the bet is Topuria Inside the Distance despite the chalky price.

Kunath advised betting “Money” Moikano by knockout, arguing Benil Dariush’s decline is real. Both men are high-level grapplers, so Kunath expects the wrestling to stalemate and force a striking match. While Dariush once packed heavier single-shot power, he now throws one-and-done combinations and hasn’t posted a win since late 2021. Over that span Moikano is 4-1, the lone defeat coming to Islam Makhachev—hardly a red flag. Kunath noted Dariush’s back-to-back first-round KOs to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan: both finishes began with strikes landing on a fully-guarded Dariush, suggesting durability erosion. In contrast, Moikano only folds when opponents string multiple punches together—exactly what Dariush no longer does. Add 16 months of inactivity for Dariush versus Moikano’s active 2023, superior momentum, and cleaner straight-punch mechanics, and Kunath projects Moikano to overwhelm the veteran and score a mid-fight TKO that will surprise the market.

Kunath said Brandon Royval is the side and specifically played him by decision at near-pick-em odds. He stressed four advantages: (1) Royval has been in camp for months preparing for Manel Kape, another boxing-centric power puncher, so the southpaw’s timing and cardio are already dialed in. (2) Joshua Van is only 23 and taking the steepest step-up of his career on a three-week turnaround, the shortest he has ever attempted. Kunath doubts Van’s gas tank if pace spikes late. (3) Royval owns a clear grappling edge—2.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes—and should punish any lazy entries while forcing scrambles Van has never seen. (4) At 5'9" with a 70" reach, Royval can jab, teep and counter as Van rushes inside, then make the youngster pay for closing distance. Kunath expects the veteran to bank the bigger moments, match Van’s volume, and win 29-28 type cards, making the decision prop a value add to straight money-line plays.

Kunath recommended taking plus-money on Brandon Royval against Joshua Van. Royval has spent years facing elite flyweights and brings frantic scramble ability, 5-minute-pace striking volume, and finishing threats on the mat or feet. Kunath praised Van’s boxing and recent Bruno Silva knockout but flagged concerns: this is Van’s shortest career turnaround and a massive step up in competition. Meanwhile, Royval has been in camp preparing for Manel Kape and is fully conditioned. Kunath believes Royval’s chaotic style, superior cardio, and submission danger will overwhelm Van once exchanges hit scramble sequences past the first round, making the underdog line disrespectful and worth a bet.

Kunath advised betting Alexandre Pantoja to defeat Kai Kara-France inside the distance. He admitted searching for reasons to pick the underdog but concluded the champion simply has more paths: world-class grappling, superior clinch work, heavier hands, and a proven chin that has absorbed power from Kai Asakura, Deiveson Figueiredo, and others. Kara-France concedes space, routinely backing to the fence versus Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi—tendencies Kunath says play directly into Pantoja’s straight-line pressure. Even with KKF’s 80% takedown defense, Pantoja can win ugly exchanges, break the Kiwi in clinch exits, and may even benefit from accidental head clashes when he crashes the pocket. At 35, Pantoja still fights hungry; Kunath doubts Kara-France’s killer-instinct in championship moments and sees the champ finishing late via submission or strikes.

Kunath picked Hamdi Abdel-Wahab by decision. He acknowledged Muhammad Usman’s urgency in scramble situations but questioned whether the former Ultimate Fighter winner is genuinely good at any one thing. Usman gets rocked in almost every fight, resets well, yet seldom pulls away on volume or power. Kunath believes Abdel-Wahab is the younger, heavier-handed fighter and unquestionably the better credentialed wrestler. If the bout turns into extended boxing or clinch work, he expects Hamdi to land the cleaner, harder shots while stuffing enough takedowns to bank rounds. Usman’s tendency to hear the final horn makes the decision prop especially attractive, and Kunath views Hamdi as the rightful, if slight, favorite who should move to 5-0.